20 October, 2019
Bill Belichick calls them "Bonus
Points".
Points unexpected, scored by the defense and by
kick and punt coverage teams, are not rare, but occur seldom enough that they
always make the short list on highlight reels and will often alter the course
of a football game, for good or ill.
They are considered to be points scored off of
turnovers, and Belichick's New England Patriots have been on both sides of the
effect that they have on games this season - and, in fact, his Patriots lead
the National Football League in points scored off of turnovers. Unfortunately,
they are also dead last in the league in points surrendered off of turnovers on
their own.
It's not a wash, however, as New England has
scored six touchdowns in such a manner while their opponents have posted three,
with two of those coming in their last meeting with the New York Jets in a game
that the Patriots won 30-14 - a final score that would have been 30-0 had no
bonus points been scored...
...New York scoring on a muffed punt returned for
a touchdown, and then an easy pick-six. The Jets' offense was just plain bad in
that game, and had been until quarterback Sam Darnold returned to the lineup
last week.
So how does that translate to tonight's rematch
with the Jets? It doesn't translate at all, as Belichick himself will tell you,
and that whatever happened in the past has no bearing on future contests -
particularly in this case as bonus points are unexpected and the Jets are a
completely different entity than they were four weeks ago...
...most obviously at quarterback, where
second-year starter Darnold returns after missing their last encounter at New
England and gives them some spark on offense, enough to upset the heavily
favored Dallas Cowboys last week for their first win of the season.
And given the state of parity that governs the NFL
this season, that one win keeps the Jets in the playoff hunt, albeit by a
thread, which combined with the win over Dallas, gives the Jets the motivation
and confidence that their offense can match the success that their defense has
enjoyed, and promises to give the Patriots all they can handle before a
national television audience.
That confidence is also due in part to New
England's offense being stuck in neutral since that last contest in Foxborough,
as injuries have rendered the Patriots' passing game a shell of its normal
self, struggling to put together any consistency at all early in games - but to
their credit, have scratched and clawed their way to find just enough paydirt
to pull out six wins in as many games.
Certainly, the Patriots score more than enough
points on average to win any game they play, their league-leading 31.6 points
per game easily outdistancing their opponents by an absurd twenty-four points –
but that is a collective total. If one were to erase the Patriots' bonus
points, their average drops to 24 points per contest which, given the
excellence of their defense, is still plenty.
Even so, there is a decline in points scored by
the offense over the last three weeks going back to their meeting with the
Jets, the talisman being wide receivers Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon going
down with injuries suffered in that game which has limited their effectiveness
and, as a result, the effectiveness of the offense overall.
In fact, injuries have taken such a toll on the
Patriots' offense that in the second half last week against the New York
Giants, they had only enough pass catchers to field just one personnel
grouping, featuring a gimpy-but-tough-as-nails Edelman and two undrafted
rookies. That was enough to squeeze out a win in that game to remain
undefeated, but it won't hold up tonight against an aggressive Jets' defense.
Gordon, who had been playing with a variety of
maladies for a couple of games since that week 3 win over the Jets, has already
been ruled out for Monday night with a knee injury suffered against the Giants
– and if speedy Phillip Dorsett isn't able to return to the lineup after
missing the last two games, the wide receiver corps may yet again have to
depend on those rookies.
But Belichick has assuaged the impact of that scenario
by making moves that will mask the deficiencies in the passing game,
theoretically.
By signing tight ends Ben Watson and Eric
Tomlinson, he adds much-needed bulk to the end of the offensive line, giving
him a proven seam target in Watson and a pair of powerful inline blockers that
should aid the running game. If one were to simply view these moves on the
surface, it could signal that New England is prepared to go toe-to-toe with the
Jets' excellent defensive line and bring the running game into prominence...
...a running game that has been bogged down all
season due to attrition suffered in the offseason and exasperated exponentially
by injuries that have laid waste to the offensive line and the fullback
position, a staple of New England's offense.
But with Belichick's stance that the short passing
game is an extension of the ground game, not to mention that he employs a
stable of running backs who are collectively dangerous in the passing game, he
could actually thin the box by spreading out the Jets' defense while at the
same time opening room for Edelman and company to ply their trade.
The issue with their passing game is that all of
the receivers that Belichick has left to work with are essentially a collection
of slot receivers who are incapable of spreading the field vertically, so he
could (should) spread out the field horizontally by splitting a running back or two out wide while keeping
one in the backfield. This rare personnel grouping could actually give the
offense an element of the read option, dictating to the Jets' defense by
forcing them to stay in their base defense and reacting instead of forcing the
issue.
Of course, New York could counter this ploy by
employing a third safety or by going to a mostly zone coverage look to shrink
the field like it would in the red zone, which by its very nature limits the
space that pass catchers have to operate. Be that as it may, New England is
adept at operating in tight spaces, counting on their backs to work in the flat
to move the chains.
How goofy would it seem for Belichick to line up
two backs wide, Edelman in the slot, Watson on the end of the line and keep one
back in the backfield? That's called “31” personnel – three backs and one tight
end, which one might see as an abstract personnel package, or as an old
“Wishbone” offense.
That would freak out the Jets' defensive players
until they realized that they have a collection of safeties perfect for their
own brand of the Big Nickel package in which to provide coverage on the backs
and tight end, and they could do so by staying in their base defense,
substituting a corner for a strong safety...
...or even using a corner as a deep safety and
employing a two-deep zone in front of him to ensure proper run support.
Madness, all of it.
It's a ball control scheme for sure, and one that,
if successful, would put a lot of pressure on the Jets' offense to be
efficient, working with what should be limited possessions to score points on
the Patriots' defense, something that they know from experience is tough
sledding.
New England's defense leads the NFL in every major
category, most importantly is the fact that they are allowing a miniscule 4.5
points per game and are larcenous repeat offenders, leading the league in
forced turnovers and are on pace to shatter the NFL record for sacks in a
season.
It should also be noted that Belichick's defense
and special teams have outscored opposing offenses twice in their six games,
and have collectively outscored those six foes 42-27, those bonus points the
difference between New England being undefeated and having at least one loss,
perhaps two or even three.
But as good as they have been, the Patriots cannot
count on those bonus points. Darnold is a talented, albeit young, signal caller
who is light years better than Luke Falk, whom the New England defense beat in
their first meeting like he stole something. Darnold has a big arm, can make
all the throws and is a bit more mobile...
...but should be held mostly in check by the
Patriots' “Boogeyman” defense. The question is, can the offense score enough
points with their limitations in the receiving corps to complement their
defense and come out of MetLife Stadium still undefeated?
The odds makers in Las Vegas believe so, making
the Patriots a double-digit road favorite – so as long as the Jets don't get
those Bonus Points that they enjoyed in their first meeting, New England should
escape with a decisive victory.
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