Thursday, April 30, 2015

Reloading The Musket - Mock Draft 2.0: Don't Question The Rings

The Wheelhouse.

Defined in the Urban Dictionary as "Anything that can be acted upon with confidence", it is often used in context with the sport of baseball as being "Part of an individuals swinging range in which as a hitter they can best make contact with the ball."

As a matter of fact, the hip dictionary goes so far as to define the "Wheelhouse" in several ways, raging from easy chicks to the image of hamsters providing energy to a persons brain, but when it comes to Bill Belichick and his prized draft capital, his "Wheelhouse" can be defined as the spot in each draft where he finds premium value for his investment...

There's no questioning the rings...
...and the players that he selects are rarely the ones that most fans and draft experts expect them to be - but his recent success in the draft can not be questioned.

From the 2010 draft forward to tonight's annual free-for-all, Belichick has selected 33 players in the first four rounds, 32 of who eventually made the team and 21 of who still reside on the Patriots' roster - and when you stop to consider that only three of those not still on the team are completely out of the NFL, his failure rate for his Wheelhouse draft selections are in the single digits.

Not bad for a guy who is looked at by many fans of the team as a failure as a defacto General Manager.

Why those people feel that way is due to the fact that Belichick has a track record of not doing well with wide receivers and defensive backs - and while it is true that the jury is still out on recently drafted receivers and a couple of defensive backs, it is equally true that the New England Patriots are the reigning World Champions, and that's something that no one can argue against.

So, why should anyone really care what player Bill Belichick selects with his solid gold first-round draft capital?  The Dark Master has a distinguished record of nailing his first pick in the draft, what with Jerod Mayo in 2008, Patrick Chung in 2009, Devin McCourty in 2010, Nate Solder in 2011, Dont'a Hightower and Chandler Jones in 2012, Jamie Collins in 2013 and Dominique Easley last year...

 ...which also shows a trend that's hard to ignore in that with the exception of Solder, every top pick for New England in nearly a decade has gone to the defensive side of the ball., and every single one of them are now starters and core players - though the jury is still out on second-year man Easley.

The second picks have been masterful as well, and the middle rounds have been a virtual trough of quality depth and eventual starters - and, of course, two of the most celebrated big game defensive heroes of the past few seasons have gone completely undrafted in priority free agent signees Sterling Moore and Malcolm Butler.

In other words, Bill Belichick's wheelhouse is the entire draft process, from scouting to workouts to interviews to selection to signing undrafted free agents, he has shown time and again that no one does the draft quite like Belichick.

That said, here is my final mock draft, all probably completely wrong:

1. #32 - Eddie Goldman, NT, Florida State

     In terms of sheer, brute value, Goldman is head and shoulders above anyone else projected to be available when the Patriots select at 32 - and the only players that come close in an area of need for the team are also Seminoles, Guard Cameron Erving and bad boy corner P. J. Williams, whose draft stock has purportedly fallen to the point where Belichick could make a play for the best pure cover corner in the draft.

Realistically, however, Williams should still go in the mid-teens at the very latest despite his DUI arrest last week. Goldman should be there, but if he is not, New England should consider Erving (if he's still around) or open up the last pick of the first day for bidding and move down into the second and third rounds, which is where Belichick is going to find the best value in a very deep draft for positions of need.

Goldman is the most dominant nose tackle coming out of college this side of Danny Shelton.  At 6' 4" and 340 pounds, Goldman is a bit tall for the position, but it doesn't appear to affect his leverage as his initial punch is as violent as you could want, and he regularly re-establishes the line of scrimmage two yards deep in the backfield, just like some guy named Wilfork used to...

2. #64 - Quentin Rollins, CB, Miami(Ohio)

     Yes, the pick I will defend until long after the draft is over.  There are not enough superlatives to describe Rollins' meteoric rise from point guard on the Redhawks' basketball team to becoming their football team's shut down cornerback as a fifth-year senior.

Up until that time, Rollins hadn't stepped foot on a gridiron since high school, and never before as a cornerback - but all he did was earn the MAC Conference Defensive Player of the Year and put his name squarely on the big board, though opinions as to where he belongs on the board is speculative as many question his desire for football, take exception to his lack of experience or just plain dismiss him due to concerns about his deep speed.

But here's the thing - A kid that talented at the cornerback position, being one of the top corners in the draft after just one season should be making defensive coordinators salivating to get their hands on, with a shot at developing him into something special.  His upside is such that with the right coaching, he could be a star, what with can only be described as "Video Game" suddeness in route and recovery and regularly blew up screens before they had a chance to get started.

Even if he doesn't start right away, the team that drafts him will eventually be getting a gem in return for their investment.

3. #96 - Jay Ajayi -RB - Boise State

   Beast Mode 2.0?

Ajayi's soccer background marries well with his powerful running style and he is difficult to knock off balance.  Rarely goes down on initial contact, which is both good and bad, as ball security becomes lax once he breaks the initial tackle.

The prize-winning attribute as far as the Patriots are concerned is the fact that he is an every down back with the best hands and best route running in the draft class.  If they are indeed looking for a replacement for Ridley and Vereen, they can get it in one fell swoop with Ajayi.

3.#97 - Laken Tomlinson, G, Duke

     When it comes to run blocking, you want maulers who can get to the second level and destroy linebackers - in pass protection, someone who is an immovable object and will trade punches with anyone - in other words, an interior offensive lineman should be nasty and intimidating.

While not an elite athlete, Tomlinson is all of those things.  But most importantly to the Patriots is how a lineman will keep interior pass rushers out of quarterback Tom Brady's face.  Tomlinson's proof of worthiness in that capacity was evident all throughout his college career, but the jewel in his draft crown was at this year's Senior Bowl, when he absolutely shut down Washington's massive nose tackle Danny Shelton during practice.

His game is recognition and power.  He adjusts well to stunts along the defensive line, and despite not being the best athlete, seems to rely on intelligence and instinctual anticipation to get himself in position to anchor, then on his fighter's mentality to punish the opposition.

4.#101- Josue Matias, G, Florida State

      In direct contrast to the bulk and physicality of Tomlinson, the taller and lighter Matias is at his best in pass protection, using his tackle-like length (6' 5") and powerful hands to keep pass rushers at bay.  The one question that scouts have about him is whether he will be able to grade out as a run blocker from the left guard spot.

Matias certainly has the frame to add more muscle, which will help with his hip drive and explosiveness in run blocking, but at this point he is a technician with the potential to get better with coaching.  That said, he is one of the better pass blocking guards in the class and deserving of a 3rd-4th round grade...or better.

4.#131 - Vince Mayle, WR, Washington State

     A broken thumb suffered at the Senior Bowl aside, this is an excellent spot to select what could amount to an opportunity to add a true playmaker to the fold as a fourth receiver - Mayle is just that at the moment with some inconsistent route running and a thick, heavy stride, but his physical stature and athletic traits present an interesting set of intangibles.

At 6' 2" and nearly 230 pounds, Mayle has the size, speed and physical traits of a move tight end, but with a knack of winning almost every jump ball and excels in the vertical routes as he is one of the best in the class at tracking the deep ball over his shoulder and into his hands, making him a natural for both seam routes and sideline go routes.

Mayle is raw in terms of overall route running - which could be attributed to him taking a few years off from College, returning last season - but he is fluid and graceful and plays much faster than his listed combine speed

6.#177 - Alani Fua, OLB, Brigham Young

     Tall, rangy outside linebacker who is fluid and quick-footed enough to handle slot receivers under certain circumstances if need be.  Solid and feisty tackler who can set the edge, but needs to pack on some weight before he's ready to take on the big boys underneath.

Excels at underneath coverages and closes on the ball quickly, which at times makes him more like a vastly oversized strong safety, but also has a mean rip moves as a straight-angle pass rusher off the edge.  There's a lot to like about Fua, but any team that takes him is going to have a tweener that must either pack on some pounds to be more effective on inside pass moves and against the run or use him as a nickle linebacker in the stead of a traditional box safety.

Either way, Fua represents excellent value at this stage of the draft process.

7.#219 - Darius Philon - DT - Arkansas

     If the Patriots do indeed end up selecting Goldman with their top pick and with Sealver Siliga, Alan Branch, Dominique Easley and Chris Jones already on board, defensive tackle isn't such a need, but Philon could be a wild card as a developmental project with next season in mind - though he could surprise and contribute in a rotational role immediately. 

Philon is light for a defensive tackle, almost mirroring Easley's size, but is a powerful inside penetrator with an impressive jump off the snap that makes offensive guards recoil at the initial punch.  A former defensive end, Philon has plenty of speed for the position and can be disruptive - but the feeling is he needed another year at Arkansas to add bulk instead of declaring for the draft - which makes him a long-range prospect with a lot of upside.

7.#253- Mario Alford, WR, West Virginia

   Not your typical speed merchant, but the diminutive Alford has deep speed that can take the top off a defense and on-the-fly change of direction skills that enables him to pull a string and leave defensive backs grasping at air...

...but Alford is, unfortunately, smallish - at 5' 8" and a slight 180 pounds which wouldn't be an issue were he suitable for the slot, but his short-area quickness is lacking and he needs to have a bit of a build up to top speed, unlike an Edelman who is full speed right from the get-go.

One-dimensional burner may turn into a deep threat, but could be coached up to present problems for corners in the intermediate zones as a crosser, provided he gets up to full speed before making his cut.

Friday, April 24, 2015

Reloading The Musket - Part 5: Patriots Boast Best Linebacking Corps In NFL, Though Depth Is Lacking

Linebacker Dont'a Hightower (54) and defensive end/outside linebacker Rob Ninkovich are tough run stoppers
The New England Patriots possess what may well be the best set of starting linebackers in the National Football League...

...which is all well and good, so long as one of them doesn't get injured, because their depth may very well be the most pedestrian list in the entire league (quick, name one of the Patriots' backup linebackers!) so expect to see at least one linebacker taken on the second day of the NFL draft next Friday.

And not just a linebacker, but probably a man-on-man cover 'backer, because as multi-talented as the starting three are, it goes to figure that head ball coach Bill Belichick has some sort of demented scheme in mind to allow these guys to roam, read and react and become the disruptive forces that God intended without having to be impeded by pesky running backs curling into the pattern on passing downs.

These guys have all been together for the past couple of years, and the only reason why we're talking about them as being the best in the league now instead of two years ago is because weakside linebacker Jerod Mayo has sustained early, season-ending injuries in both campaigns, forcing the Patriot shave to scramble into Helter Skelter mode...
Toledo's Junior Sylvestre is a late round possibility that could rise

...middle linebacker Dont'a Hightower taking over the signal calling was initially a harrowing experience that saw him mentally and physically overwhelmed as he acknowledged that he was trying to do to much to make up for Mayo's absence - but as he grew into the role, he became what we saw late last season, which was an intimidating run stuffer while second-year freak Jamie Collins emerged as the sideline to sideline play-wrecker that we were promised that he'd be.

Undoubtedly, the experience gained by Hightower makes him the favorite to continue in that role in 2015, perhaps assuming the "heart-and-Soul" status that departed nose tackle Vince Wilfork rocked for the better part of a decade, as he is just now starting to scratch the surface of his enormous potential.

For those keeping score, that trio boasts two number one picks, Mayo in 2008 and Hightower in 2012, and one second rounder, Collins, as the team's top pick in 2013.  That's some pretty serious draft capital spent on linebackers in the past six seasons - so much so that one would think that there would be a cover backer in there somewhere that could blanket a running back curling out of the backfield but, alas, there isn't one in the bunch.

Mayo has been the best that the Patriots have been able to offer up, and he was merely decent / average at it to begin with, but coming off consecutive seasons where he had season ending surgeries to his pectoral muscle and Patellar tendon, his days of being somewhat effective in coverage are probably gone.

Collins has shown the ability to handle tight ends pretty well, but we all saw what Marshawn Lynch did to him with the game on the line in the Super Bowl, and Hightower tries hard but just isn't quick-twitch enough to move with a running back in the open field...
BYU's Fua is another late-round prospect that could help under coverage

...so most of that action has been delegated to the Patriots' "Big Nickle", a strong safety - most recently Patrick Chung - who has the hips of a defensive back and plays like a big boy in the box, but with the emphasis in the Patriots' defense being shifted from the back end to the front, it would only make sense that New England also changes the emphasis to getting to the quarterback and making him find quick underneath targets.

Which, unfortunately, feeds right into what the linebackers don't do well, which is covering the backs curling into the pattern.  It's killed them for years, as had covering tight ends - but while Collins might be a suitable response to tight ends, there still is nothing to prevent running backs from dominating the underneath zones.

So what's a defensive genius to do?

Well, he could draft a cover 'backer, for one.  His success with drafting and working with linebackers is well documented - which goes to figure, given his rich experience both in New York and Foxborough - but if he's going to do that, history has shown that he values the position enough that he will take one in his top three picks.

If that ends up being the case, this year's annual "Reach" prospect may end up being a linebacker.

There are some top-flight cover 'backers projected for the first three rounds, obviously, but with value being the keyword for Belichick's draft capital, any selection made on the second day of the draft is likely to be a potential first rounder that happened to slip - which may or may not include UCLA's Eric Kendricks or Washington's Shaq Thompson.

Kendricks played in the middle in college, but his lack of size prohibits that in the NFL, where he is projected to be a weakside linebacker in a 4-3 alignment - a perfect assignment for the fluid brother of Philadelphia middle linebacker Mychal Kendricks.  The younger Kendricks is a man-on-man demon with running backs...

...as is Washington's Thompson, who is even smaller than Kendricks. There are as many potential positions awaiting Thompson as there are people with opinions, but while Thompson considers himself a weakside linebacker, his college coach is telling anyone who will listen that his best position is running back, which Thompson performed at ably.  Many scouts, however, consider him a strong safety prospect, which screams "Big Nickle."

But it's possible that neither of those two will still be on the board when the Patriots select at 64, and are certain to be gone by the time the draft reaches Belichick's wheelhouse toward the end of the third round, which is where the "reach" comes into play.

There are kids like Louisville's Lorenzo Mauldin and LSU's Kwon Alexander who are marginal talents as far as covering running backs and producing against the run and in the pass rush make their 3rd to 4th round projections a little too rich for Belichick's blood, while intriguing third day prospects Junior Sylvestre out of Toledo and BYU's Alani Fua offer far more value due to their unique skill set.

If Belichick is going to reach in this spot, it is going to be with Sylvestre.

A fluid, sideline to sideline impact linebacker, the knock on Sylvestre is two-fold.  First, his level of competition comes into question playing in the MAC, but that can be quashed by watching his tape, where he easily blows past blockers in the pass rush and mirrors running backs wheeling out of the backfield, where his 6' 0", 225 pound frame reminds one of - you guessed it - a box safety.

Fua is another intriguing prospect that could go higher than anticipated, particularly to a team seeking players to help mask their coverages, such as the Patriots are going to have to do.

Fua is a bean pole at 6' 5" and 240 pounds, but is cat quick in coverage and takes a tight angle to the quarterback when he has a seam.  How quick?  The coaches at BYU moved him all over the formation in coverage, going from tight ends to running backs to covering taller slot receivers.  Someone as creative as Belichick and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia would be able to find matchups to take advantage of with Fua.

What the Patriots have for depth at the linebacker spots already is a mixture of castoffs, unknowns and medical red flags, meaning that for a team looking to run more 4-3 looks, there are upwards of seven prospects vying for two, maybe three, roster spots - and one of those is likely already filled as a by-product of the Patriots top free agency move.

 Belichick went out and got Cleveland's Jabaal Sheard, who played both defensive end and strong side linebacker in his time with the Browns, but had a much greater impact with his hand in the dirt -  which leaves lunch-pail hybrid Rob Ninkovich as a likely stand up outside linebacker.  Both are relentless pass rushers and both belong on the field - and if the Patriots do indeed draft a linebacker, that could mean that just one spot would remain for the current depth.

The top returning depth options for New England are fourth year man Darius Fleming, second year reserve Deonte Skinner and Dolphins' castoff Jonathan Freeny, none of whom are excellent in coverage but are solid against the run and on special teams, but couldn't hold active spots last season against the acquisitions of Akeem Ayers and Jonathan Cassillas, both of who left in free agency.

That doesn't instill much confidence in the event Mayo or one of the other starters goes down for a protracted period, and one can never be sure what the trade market will bring in-season, even though Belichick appears to have a divining rod like ability to find players to fill in...

...though it is certain that he won't want to be scrambling mid-season to fill holes with whatever he can find - so look for the Patriots to take at least one linebacker in the draft, with the smart money being on a late round prospect being the annual "reach", probably as high as the third round.

Friday, April 17, 2015

Reloading The Musket - Part 4: Patriots Looking For Pass Rush Depth To Step Up

Sheard is a relentless strong-side pass rusher that could spell Ninkovich, or even bump him to outside linebacker
Most folks who follow football will be familiar with the name Whitney Mercilus.

No, the relentless edge rusher for the Houston Texans hasn't popped up in any rumored connections with the New England Patriots - though their starry-eyed fans are always on the lookout for a big-name player that they can connect the dots all the way to Foxborough - but his former college teammate at Illinois can be connected to the World Champions...

...because he's already under contract and spent the majority of the 2014 season on the Injured Reserved list.

Taking a look at Mercilus' career statistics can give us a pretty decent idea of what Patriots' fans could expect if former University of Illinois Michael Buchanan defensive end can overcome the long strange road he's had to travel since being named All-Big Ten after his junior season, an honor that he shared with the senior Mercilus, and often the better all-around player of the two.

And when Mercilus went to the Texans in the middle of the first round of the 2012 NFL Draft, many in-the-know had the bigger and faster Buchanan as a sure-fire first rounder, the only knock on him was being a bit too lean to play defensive end in the pros, but at 6' 5" and 255 pounds, Buchanan had his entire senior year to add a few pounds of muscle to entice the scouts.

One punch to mouth in a bar altercation later, Buchanan was drinking his meals through a straw and lost a full 20 pounds before his broken jaw was released from it's wire bondage.

Buchanan struggled to gain back the weight in muscle, which resulted in a senior season where he fell far short of the lofty expectations laid at his alter - and instead of traipsing across the stage to get a hat and jersey from the commissioner, he had to settle for a quick phone call from Bill Belichick to let him know that the New England had spent a seventh round draft pick of the 2013 Draft to make him a Patriot.

The Patriots haven't been very successful in the draft with defensive linemen of late, and Buchanan is just one in a long line of ends that have yet to produce.

Chandler Jones was pretty much a given, an All American out of Syracuse became a first-round selection for New England out of Syracuse in the 2011 NFL Draft - but the picks since then have been less than productive thus far, with Jones followed in line by Jake Bequette out of Arkansas in the 4th round of the 2012 Draft, Buchanan in 2013 and small-school prospect Zach Moore this past off-season...

...not exactly a Murderer's Row of defensive ends, but if any of them develop into what head ball coach Bill Belichick expected of them when he spent his draft capital on them, there is the nucleus of pass rushing and edge-setting talent.

The Patriots have pass rushing talent all up and down the defensive line and on the second level, but have never really been able to put together an elite unit- but Belichick's big free agency splash in nabbing former Cleveland Browns' hybrid defensive end Jabaal Sheard covers the Patriots on the edge for the foreseeable future, and gives them a potentially elite rush demon from the strong side.

Sheard is a virtual clone of Patriots' middle linebacker Dont'a Hightower, as they are nearly identical in stature - both Hightower and Sheard stand 6' 3" tall, but Hightower's 270 pounds has Sheard by five - and both played a combination of positions in college, including outside linebacker and defensive end, and both were known more for their ability to disrupt the quarterback than anything else.

A monster fit in a 4-3 defense with his hand in the dirt, Sheard also graded out as the second-best 3-4 outside linebacker against the run in 2014, when Browns' coaches changed the defensive philosophy.  His sack total hit rock bottom as a linebacker, however, and Sheard's overall numbers dropped significantly as what explosion he possesses comes up and out of a three-point stance.

But where Sheard falls short as a stand up linebacker is where crusty veteran Rob Ninkovich excels, as his late-season performances during the title run bears out.  Ninkovich was used as a chess piece in what can only be described as a "Cloud" rusher in 2014, standing up as an end, but dropping back as a linebacker on multiple occasions, using his instincts to rush the passer from a variety of angles once the blockers on offense were committed to their gaps.

Ninkovich always seems to be around the ball and a good argument could be made for him being the most valuable player on the defense, but the man is 31 years old and under contract - a very reasonable contract - for only for another two seasons, while Jones is headed into his contract year and can expect to be heavily pursued in free agency after the 2015 season...

...and what would give new England a little bit of leverage when it comes to negotiations with Jones is if one or more of the aforementioned recent draft picks stepped up - even even roster dark horse Rufus Johnson, whom the Patriots picked up on a futures contract.

New Orleans spent a 6th rounder in 2013 on the tiny Tarleton State product but, like Sheard, he was an improper fit in the Saints' 3-4 as an outside linebacker.  Not surprisingly, Johnson lasted one season on the team's practice squad, then was released in August of last year, eventually ending up in Foxborough on the futures deal on New Years Eve.

So in addition to Jones, Ninkovich and Sheard, the Patriots have one - two at the most - roster spots reserved for an additional defensive end - the only question is, will Moore, Bequette or Buchanan step up to claim those spots, or will they go to one of many impact hybrids available in the draft?

With the quality of the ends already in a starting rotation, the need level is low so don't be surprised if all three days of the draft pass by without Patriots' fans hearing a defensive end's name being called for them in the draft.

However it works, Belichick is putting a lot of eggs in one basket with his front seven to get to the quarterback and keeping backs and tight ends contained so that the young secondary doesn't get overwhelmed - and with the big time draft capital spent on the line and linebacking corps in the recent past, one would think that they could do just that.

Potentially, the front seven could start four 1st round draft picks (Jones, DT Dominique Easley, MLB Dont'a Hightower and weakside backer Jerod Mayo), and three 2nd rounders ( Sheard, strongside backer Jamie Collins and DT Alan Branch), with former 5th rounder Ninkovich and undrafted free agent Sealver Siliga bucking the trend.

On paper, it's a fantastic unit, with the linebackers potentially being among the best units in the NFL - but while Patriots' fans can expect some draft action on the interior of the defensive line and in the box on the second level, there will probably be no other pass rushers joining the Champs via the draft.

The Patriots sack the quarterback, make no mistake, but they don't consistently generate enough pressure to disrupt the opposing quarterback's rhythm when they don't sack him...

...a certain sign that the Patriots defense is headed for a bit of a philosophical change back to their defenses of the past decade - the bend-but-don't-break approach that gives up plenty of yards, but with more field goals than touchdowns.

For people with high blood pressure or unremitting anxiety, this defense will probably drive them to the medicine cabinet for some soothing elixirs, but this very bend-but-don't-break approach has been a trademark of Belichick's defenses for the past decade, with spotty results at times, but their win-loss record and the fact that they have been to seven conference title games and four Super Bowls in that time frame probably means that Belichick knows what he's doing.

Thursday, April 16, 2015

Reloading The Musket - Part 3: Karma smiles on secondary

The Patriots almost lost that game, you know.

The reason that they didn't is because of some great individual effort by rookie free agent cornerback Malcolm Butler and by veteran press corner Brandon Browner down the stretch and clutch teamwork between the two on the fateful, Championship winning interception by Butler to seal the Patriots' fourth World Title in eight tries.

Now, Butler will forever be a hero and his legacy is cemented in Patriots' lore, certainly showing that he was ready for the Prime Time slot, but....

Is Malcolm Butler ready for the daily grind?
Butler has earned his shot at being the number one corner

Is Butler ready not just to show up and make plays in the clutch - though that is always nice - but also to do the little things, to grind away in camp and at practice, to jibe with a different game plan each and every week, to match up with the opposition's top receiver on a weekly basis?

According to everything we know about him, he is - and it's a great story filled with delicious Popeye's Chicken and solicited testimonials, telling of his wonderful personality and never-say-die attitude, telling of hard work that cut into his homework time in order to help his mother make ends meet - he has the proper attitude and work ethic.

Recently, Rodney Harrison gave some insight on just how high head ball coach Bill Belichick and the Patriots really are on Butler, stating that "(Belichick) really likes the kid, and thinks he is going to be a very good football player."

It's a rags-to-riches story that we've heard a hundred times and he deserves every bit of good Ju Ju that comes his way, deserving of all of the plaudits and deserving of all of the vehicles that All Pro quarterbacks and starry-eyed car dealerships offer up...

...but he works for a man named Bill Belichick, a man who respects the past and uses past performances as gauges to future potential, and it is this cross-evaluation between the past and future potential that drives Belichick's personnel decisions, so the fact that Butler was the best player on the field during that epic fourth quarter of the Super Bowl means little more than game film to him.

Because history is replete with athletes that step up in the most crucial of spots, only to never be heard from again, so it is fair for folks to wonder if Malcolm Butler will be among the long line of players that fit the flash-in-the-pan profile - yet there was also an edge to Butler's performance when his number was called in the second half of Super Bowl XLIX, particularly down the stretch in the fourth quarter, when he was the best cornerback on the field.

That's right, Butler's impact on the final 30 minutes of last month's Super Bowl went far beyond getting his finger tips on a ball intended for Kearse, and even transcends perhaps the most clutch play in the title game's rich history - because that play was just the culmination of perhaps the most karmic series of plays in the history of football.

Karmic in the sense that had Revis and Browner not been on the roster, Butler would have probably played far more than he did during the regular season, and after biding his time and putting in the dirty work during the regular season, he had a very appropriate coming out party under the brightest lights that there are in the world of football.

It would be a little far-fetched for Belichick to claim that things unfolded for his team and for Butler just the way he drew it up, because the truth is that had slot corner Kyle Arrington not been taken advantage of by the Seahawks' play calling and huge matchup differential, Butler may never have seen the field on that fateful afternoon.

But what Belichick can claim, as he can with so many players under his charge, is that Butler did his job - and you will not hear any higher praise come out of the Dark Master's mouth.

Browner is gone, a casualty of Bill Belichick re-focusing the emphasis of the defense on the front seven, leaving the junior member of the New England secondary the one corner that has really flashed a potential that should have Patriots' fans optimistic for the future, and it's not as if the cupboard is bare behind him on the depth chart...

...but while it is full of players that have shown flashes of potential, that potential is limited in a mix of youthful inexperience and some unknown entities - and, of course, the presence of Revis and Browner.

So, while keeping in mind that when it comes to winning a Super Bowl, questioning the decisions made in personnel hardly seems worth the effort, the 2015 defense enters camp with a depth chart full of question marks, it is safe to say that players like Dennard and Ryan and Butler would be much further along in their development had the Patriots not dipped into free agency.

Instead, what the team is left with is three players whom have performed at starter-quality levels at times in their brief careers, but whose limited body of work makes them relative unknowns at this point - which promises to have Patriots' fans clamoring for a top cornerback in the draft, since the market offered up mostly camp fodder.

In addition to Dennard, Ryan, Arrington and Butler, the team has made those very minor free agency moves for players that don't really project to be any better than those four, the only one that has a reasonable chance of sticking being former 7th round draft pick Robert McClain, who is feisty and aggressive in man coverage, the result of a serious Napoleon complex.

Former Falcon McClain's size and relative lack thereof has been an albatross around his neck since being drafted as an afterthought in the 2010 draft- but was outstanding from both slots, the flank and on the outside, though he had his share of issues with taller receivers.  McClain even logged significant reps as the "Big Nickle" safety in Atlanta and was solid in the role as he's excellent in run support and tight in a phone booth.

Chimdi Chekwa, a restricted free agent who was a 4th round pick of the Raiders back in 2011who has been burned repeatedly in press coverage ever since, was declined a tender by Oakland.  Blazing fast but because of limitations playing with his back to the ball and giving up outside position, Chekwa is more of a zone read-and-react corner.  Same with Bradley Fletcher, who New England picked up by way of Philadelphia.

All three of these guys had scouting reports coming out of college that favored their success as safeties more than corner on the professional level - yet McClain is the only one who has seen time as a box safety, a position that he could fill at times as a kind of a Swiss Army Knife in the secondary.

Fletcher will have to have an epic camp to stick, while Chekwa will need a miracle (like finally learning how to tackle) - particularly if the Patriots spend some draft capital on a cornerback, and even then the answer may already be on the roster as Butler and Dennard should be considered the wings, while Arrington will be given a run for his money from McClain to hold onto his slot position.  McClain could also be in the mix with Logan Ryan to ascend if Dennard doesn't recover from his series of setbacks.

The depth chart as it stands negates that common perception that the Patriots are now laden with a multitude of zone corners, though it's not too far of a stretch to imagine that we'll see the Patriots in a variety of Cover-2 looks - and while zone variations will always have their place in accordance with the game plan, there are enough aggressive press corners (unproven as they are) to run man packages, either as part of a Tampa 2 scheme or flat Cover 1.

Most of what will determine what's happening with the game plan in the secondary will depend on the quality of play in the front seven, which is where the majority of focus should be on the defensive side of the ball in the draft, but that is for another time and in another article - the topic we've chosen for today is the state of the Patriots secondary and how it may impact the upcoming draft.

How could it not?  Well, the Patriots have gotten to the promised land with far less talent in their secondary than they have right now, and a couple of times had to press a couple of receivers into service just to have enough warm bodies to compete.  That said, does Belichick even possess such a thought as having a position of need?

We can always just assume that he knows that we, as fans, expect that he is cognizant of our thoughts, wants and desires - but as for anything that involves the Dark Master, especially when it comes to the draft, there is an intersection where talent and draft value meet for every single player and, seemingly, need be damned.

It doesn't necessarily fit into a generic "best available athlete" mode either, because he seeks a little bit more than athletic ability - so knowing what's important to Belichick, drawn from a purely historical trend, is the key to trying to figure out what he's going to do...

...which is bullshit, of course, but history does offer us a little perspective on Belichick and drafting corners - and that perspective dictates that if he doesn't select a corner with his first round selection he should probably wait until the end of the second day or even into the beginning of the final day of the draft to pick over the remains.

In fifteen drafts that Belichick has presided over, he has selected a corner in the first round just once, which was Devin McCourty in 2010 - and he's now a second-team All Pro free safety.  His second rounders have been a disaster, with names like Ras-I Dowling, Darius Butler and Terrence Wheatley stinking up the joint. But the key, it seems, is that he seems to find the most value in the middle rounds, and that history is tough to argue with...

...what with names like Ellis Hobbs, Logan Ryan and Asante Samuel being name-picks that turned out ok, at least for a little while - and of course there was Dennard, a projected 2nd - 3rd rounder who dropped all the way to the seventh round due to legal problems, and plays with confidence when he's actually on the field, which has been precious little.

The bookends between the third and fourth rounds are like him defering to the second half of an actual game, trying to score to end the first half, building momentum to take the second half kickoff and put the game away.  It's the same philosophy in the draft, which means that only a few good corners are really in play for the Patriots in this draft.

P.J. Williams - CB - Florida State 
   
His DUI arrest may drop him down some draft boards, but there may not be a more NFL ready cornerback.  A polished bump and run defender, he lacks only desire to play every down.  Will be an island defender if his attitude ever matches his athletic gifts.  He was originally projected to be as high as a top 15 pick, and would have been a long shot for the Patriots in that scenario - and he probably still is.

Quentin Rollins - CB - Miami (Ohio)
   
A video game quality press corner who rarely gives a receiver room to breathe, though he will experience a vastly superior talent level going to the NFL from the MAC - has only one year of college football experience and has been a corner only for that one season, so his learning curve is steep and receivers in the NFL will be able to take him outside in until he gains some playing experience -  but once that happens with good coaching, he has every trait desired for a shutdown corner.

Rose steadily up draft boards after a good Senior Bowl week, but his ascension has leveled off into the late 2nd, early third round area.

Ronald Darby - CB - Florida State
   
Another late 2nd, early 3rd rounder, Darby is speed, speed and more speed.  Darby has world-class sprinter's speed and uses it to keep the top on the receiver.  In his desire to keep the top on, however, he can be beaten underneath if the receiver breaks off the route.  Susceptible to the outside-in move but plays press and off-man with equal success. He might have a little trouble at the professional level if he can't break his habit of latching onto receivers.

Marcus Peters - CB - Washington
   
A tantrum waiting to happen, Peters has everything a coach could want in a press corner and can outright stuff and intimidate the opposing receiver, but is emotionally immature and was constantly in the doghouse in college.  Would be a perfect on the wings if he takes to coaching.

The book is all over the place on Peters, but most projections seem to have him as a late 1st round talent with a 3rd round discipline problem.

Shaq Thompson - OLB/RB - Washington
Thompson is included here because he is an excellent prospect at the box safety position.  That said, his college coach sees his best fit as a running back, while many draft experts see him as either a 4-3 outside linebacker or as a strong safety.

He's a classic tweener with excellent hands and a dogged pursuit artist who can cover running backs wheeling out into the pattern - in effect, the perfect Big Nickle safety/linebacker  hybrid who could double up as an emergency third running back or even as a Vereen-like passing back.  That type of versatility could land him on the team, and give Belichick more options on his game-day roster.

Byron Jones - CB/FS - Connecticut
   
Highly intelligent and instinctive defensive back who has a bit of a combination of Ras-I Dowling and Kyle Arrington in his DNA.  Dowling for his fragility and lack of physicality and Arrington for his ability to lose his man in vertical coverage.  Early mock drafts seemed to have Jones trending to New England, but the athletic freak is now projected in Belichick's real wheel house.

That said, Free safety seems to be his natural position and if the Patriots were to draft him, it might signal a move for Devin McCourty back to corner, where he started his career - but that seems unlikely.




Thursday, April 9, 2015

Reloading the Musket - Patriots' Mock Draft 1.0: Size Matters

The Patriots brought in Bryan Stork last season to anchor the pivot, could his FSU teammate Matias (70) be joining him?
We're idiots.  All of us.

And even fools if we actually believe that, as writers, we can guess which players New England Patriots' head ball coach and defacto General Manager Bill Belichick will select when it comes his turn.

Experts can predict whatever they want, but the simple fact of the matter is that Belichick has his players targeted and will make his selections count with the best available athlete at a position of need and in a spot where they represent maximum value for his draft capital.

That said, no one really knows where Belichick has his targets projected at, nor do we know what the 31 other teams' mindsets are at, which makes mock drafts and inexact science at best, and a fool's paradise at worst.

Hell, we don't even know what Belichick considers a priority, or if he even goes into a draft thinking along those lines.  Lord knows he has befuddled the masses time and again with his seemingly quirky picks of little-known or outright unknown prospects, starting with one Tom Brady, a part-time starter behind Drew Henson at Michigan whom the Dark Master took as an afterthought in the sixth round in 2000.  Perhaps you've heard of him.

Of course, for every Brady there's two or three Dowlings or Bequettes - and so it goes with inexact science.

But nothing gets fans juiced in the offseason like some idiot posting his big board or mock draft on social media sites, which is nothing short of throwing meat to wolves - because fans are fans no matter the time of year, and when draft day approaches, particularly if money is tight and their team hasn't done much in free agency, things like these whet their appetite and cause the salivary glands to work overtime.

But it's fun, except for those who take themselves too seriously.  For them, this time of year is crucial for their future success, and every negative comment of their opinion is met with snarling and gnashing of teeth - such as it goes with narcissistic nightmares...

...because what Mock Drafts really are is a personal wish list of sorts - players whom we would like to see Belichick draft.  we will defend our opinions right up until Belichick makes his selection, then fall back on the "Inexact Science" thing or the "In Bill We Trust" adage.  There's nothing binding about trying to guess what the Dark Master is going to do in the draft, so all is forgiven and forgotten before the 7th round is completed.

That is, until next offseason, when everyone will remember exactly who you picked and don't hesitate to remind you - and there's no sense in denying it.  After all, what goes on the internet, stays on the internet...

1. #32 - Eddie Goldman, NT, Florida State

     In terms of sheer, brute value, Goldman is head and shoulders above anyone else projected to be available when the Patriots select at 32 - and the only players that come close in an area of need for the team are also Seminoles, Guard Cameron Erving and bad boy corner P. J. Williams, whose draft stock has purportedly fallen to the point where Belichick could make a play for the best pure cover corner in the draft.

Realistically, however, Williams should still go in the mid-teens at the very latest despite his DUI arrest last week. Goldman should be there, but if he is not, New England should consider Erving (if he's still around) or open up the last pick of the first day for bidding and move down into the second and third rounds, which is where Belichick is going to find the best value in a very deep draft for positions of need.

Goldman is the most dominant nose tackle coming out of college this side of Danny Shelton.  At 6' 4" and 340 pounds, Goldman is a bit tall for the position, but it doesn't appear to affect his leverage as his initial punch is as violent as you could want, and he regularly re-establishes the line of scrimmage two yards deep in the backfield, just like some guy named Wilfork used to...

2. #64 - Quentin Rollins, CB, Miami(Ohio)

     Yes, the pick I will defend until long after the draft is over.  There are not enough superlatives to describe Rollins' meteoric rise from point guard on the Redhawks' basketball team to becoming their football team's shut down cornerback as a fifth-year senior.

Up until that time, Rollins hadn't stepped foot on a gridiron since high school, and never before as a cornerback - but all he did was earn the MAC Conference Defensive Player of the Year and put his name squarely on the big board, though opinions as to where he belongs on the board is speculative as many question his desire for football, take exception to his lack of experience or just plain dismiss him due to concerns about his deep speed.

But here's the thing - A kid that talented at the cornerback position, being one of the top corners in the draft after just one season should be making defensive coordinators salivating to get their hands on, with a shot at developing him into something special.  His upside is such that with the right coaching, he could be a star, what with can only be described as "Video Game" suddeness in route and recovery and regularly blew up screens before they had a chance to get started.

Even if he doesn't start right away, the team that drafts him will eventually be getting a gem in return for their investment.

3.#96 - Bernardrick McKinney, ILB, Miss. State

     If the Patriots' defensive front seven is to grow into the force that it seems Belichick is trying to trend towards, he's going to need linebackers - one who can double up as a pure coverage linebacker from the weak side, and one who can free up Jamie Collins to return to his natural strong side position after spending the majority of last season flip-fopping from the outside-in.

That is going to take a tough point-of-contact linebacker who can take on the guards at the second level and clear out all of the trash - and this player doesn't have to be ready to take over anytime soon, just prepared for when his name is called.  McKinney could develop into such a player.

A force against the run, McKinney would continue a team trend toward tall, well proportioned linebackers who can play both inside and out and perhaps even more importantly, is a student of the game plan and pays particular attention to his assignments, plus has an instinctual knack for cutting off cutback lanes and limiting the effectiveness of the zone blocking schemes that the Patriots have traditionally had a difficult time handling.

3.#97 - Laken Tomlinson, G, Duke

     When it comes to run blocking, you want maulers who can get to the second level and destroy linebackers - in pass protection, someone who is an immovable object and will trade punches with anyone - in other words, an interior offensive lineman should be nasty and intimidating.
Tomlinson is a mauler at right guard

While not an elite athlete, Tomlinson is all of those things.  But most importantly to the Patriots is how a lineman will keep interior pass rushers out of quarterback Tom Brady's face.  Tomlinson's proof of worthiness in that capacity was evident all throughout his college career, but the jewel in his draft crown was at this year's Senior Bowl, when he absolutely shut down Washington's massive nose tackle Danny Shelton during practice.

His game is recognition and power.  He adjusts well to stunts along the defensive line, and despite not being the best athlete, seems to rely on intelligence and instinctual anticipation to get himself in position to anchor, then on his fighter's mentality to punish the opposition.

4.#101- Josue Matias, G, Florida State

      In direct contrast to the bulk and physicality of Tomlinson, the taller and lighter Matias is at his best in pass protection, using his tackle-like length (6' 5") and powerful hands to keep pass rushers at bay.  The one question that scouts have about him is whether he will be able to grade out as a run blocker from the left guard spot.

Matias certainly has the frame to add more muscle, which will help with his hip drive and explosiveness in run blocking, but at this point he is a technician with the potential to get better with coaching.  That said, he is one of the better pass blocking guards in the class and deserving of a 3rd-4th round grade...or better.

4.#131 - Vince Mayle, WR, Washington State

     A broken thumb suffered at the Senior Bowl aside, this is an excellent spot to select what could amount to an opportunity to add a true playmaker to the fold as a fourth receiver - Mayle is just that at the moment with some inconsistent route running and a thick, heavy stride, but his physical stature and athletic traits present an interesting set of intangibles.

At 6' 2" and nearly 230 pounds, Mayle has the size, speed and physical traits of a move tight end, but with a knack of winning almost every jump ball and excels in the vertical routes as he is one of the best in the class at tracking the deep ball over his shoulder and into his hands, making him a natural for both seam routes and sideline go routes.

Mayle is raw in terms of overall route running - which could be attributed to him taking a few years off from College, returning last season - but he is fluid and graceful and plays much faster than his listed combine speed

6.#177 - Alani Fua, OLB, Brigham Young

     Tall, rangy outside linebacker who is fluid and quick-footed enough to handle slot receivers under certain circumstances if need be.  Solid and feisty tackler who can set the edge, but needs to pack on some weight before he's ready to take on the big boys underneath.

Excels at underneath coverages and closes on the ball quickly, which at times makes him more like a vastly oversized strong safety, but also has a mean rip moves as a straight-angle pass rusher off the edge.  There's a lot to like about Fua, but any team that takes him is going to have a tweener that must either pack on some pounds to be more effective on inside pass moves and against the run or use him as a nickle linebacker in the stead of a traditional box safety.

Either way, Fua represents excellent value at this stage of the draft process.

7.#219 - Darius Philon - DT - Arkansas

     If the Patriots do indeed end up selecting Goldman with their top pick and with Sealver Siliga, Alan Branch, Dominique Easley and Chris Jones already on board, defensive tackle isn't such a need, but Philon could be a wild card as a developmental project with next season in mind - though he could surprise and contribute in a rotational role immediately. 

Philon is light for a defensive tackle, almost mirroring Easley's size, but is a powerful inside penetrator with an impressive jump off the snap that makes offensive guards recoil at the initial punch.  A former defensive end, Philon has plenty of speed for the position and can be disruptive - but the feeling is he needed another year at Arkansas to add bulk instead of declaring for the draft - which makes him a long-range prospect with a lot of upside.

7.#253- Mario Alford, WR, West Virginia

   Not your typical speed merchant, but the diminutive Alford has deep speed that can take the top off a defense and on-the-fly change of direction skills that enables him to pull a string and leave defensive backs grasping at air...

...but Alford is, unfortunately, smallish - at 5' 8" and a slight 180 pounds which wouldn't be an issue were he suitable for the slot, but his short-area quickness is lacking and he needs to have a bit of a build up to top speed, unlike an Edelman who is full speed right from the get-go.

One-dimensional burner may turn into a deep threat, but could be coached up to present problems for corners in the intermediate zones as a crosser, provided he gets up to full speed before making his cut.

Saturday, April 4, 2015

Reloading The Musket - Erving, Goldman top Patriots' 2015 Big Board

Goldman could be a late-first round steal for the Patriots to replace Vince Wilfork
The New England Patriots don't have many holes to fill from their Super Bowl winning roster, as they return 17 of 22 starters from 2014 - but the holes that they need to fill are going to require a measure of intrepidity and patience, as there are sure-fire prospects that will be available when the Patriots select at number 32 and beyond.

In fact, with the team gaining an early-round compensation pick, the end of the third round looks to be a point from which the Patriots could run their entire draft, giving them leverage to move up and down the board, always keeping in mind their list of targeted players.

The defense took the biggest hits, what with cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner and long-tenured nose tackle Vince Wilfork being shown the door - the three of them combined forming a mask of sorts for what really ails the unit, and has ailed it for years: the lack of a pass rush and poor coverage on tight ends and running backs.

Head ball coach Bill Belichick has addressed these areas in what amounts to depth, so top-tiered talent should be the focus of the team in the draft.

The offense has holes to fill as well, particularly along the interior of the line and at passing back, but those players may very well already be on the roster - which leaves the Patriots a very defined and logical direction in which to proceed in the draft.

At nose tackle, Sealver Siliga proved a capable backup to Wilfork for the past two seasons, but works best in tandem as a rotational late-down run stopper and pass rusher, as he is more a penetrator than a space-eater, and the Patriots have several of those kinds of interior players on the roster already, so it will be interesting to see how Belichick approaches the nose.

The edges in the pass rush and in run support was addressed with the team's only major splash in free agency, signing defensive end Jaball Sheard from the Cleveland Browns, and together with tenured ends Rob Ninkovich and Chandler Jones, the Patriots are in good shape on the edges, where we will probably see a rotation of those three players and perhaps one of the young depth ends.

That leaves the cornerback positions, which are in a state of extreme flux with the release of the aforementioned Revis and Browner.

It remains to be seen if the players that served as depth behind those two last season are ready to ascend, but if Malcolm Butler can build upon his impressive Super Bowl performance and if one of the myriad of reserve corners can step up to their potential, the Patriots may opt to go into 2105 with what they already have, save positional versatility.

Butler seems destined to enter camp as one starting corner, but behind him is a crap shoot.  In addition to free agent additions Bradley Fletcher and Robert McClain, there is talent left over from the championship roster in third-year player Logan Ryan and the enigmatic Alfonzo Dennard.

Ryan is better suited for the slot and may have the opportunity to supplant Kyle Arrington in that role, but if Dennard can get past his dreadful offseason from a year ago and equally disappointing 2014 season and return to what made him a potential fixture in the secondary as a rookie, a Butler / Dennard duo wouldn't be the worst thing in the world...

...and there is always to possibility that the newly rich free safety Devin McCourty could be used at corner, though his true calling seems to be at free safety.  But there is no shortage of back end talent on the roster as third-year ball hawk Duron Harmon has shown the range and instincts to be a difference maker at free, and reclaimed retread Patrick Chung boasted a career year at the strong safety position.

All of this said, the needs are what they are.

It appears that guards Dan Connolly and Ryan Wendell may have seen their best days pass them by and, serviceable and reliable as they have been, the need for upgrade is evident - and there is no sure-fire locks as passing backs on the team as James White is untested and restricted free agent pick up Tavaris Cadet played second-fiddle to Pierre Thomas in New Orleans' pass happy offense the past three seasons...

...while on defense the lack of proven talent among the cornerbacks is glaring, and will continue to be so until players like Malcolm Butler and Alfonzo Dennard step up and claim starting spots that they are capable of handling - and even if Siliga turns out to be everything the Patriots hope he can be at the nose, the team's tried and true rotation at the position requires another legitimate nose tackle in the fold.

The linebacking corps could use another stud on the interior as well to free up hell raisers Dont'a Hightower and Jamie Collins to do just that, and perhaps it's time to start thinking about a legitimate replacement for Jerod Mayo on the weak side as well.


1. Cameron Erving - C/G/T - Florida State
Erving can play all five offensive line positions

     College defensive tackle who made the switch to offensive tackle, then assumed the starting center role when current Patriots' center Brain Stork left for the NFL.  Rare athlete who can either start at center or right guard and can backup every position on the line.  Immediate starter on the interior if New England chooses him.

2. Eddie Goldman - NT - Florida State
     Elite run defender with two-gap capability and a mean streak a mile wide.  Violent bull rusher that can re-establish the line of scrimmage and never takes a play off.  Has all the makings of an elite play maker in the run game as well as occupying double teams to allow his team mates to penetrate and make plays.

 3. P.J. Williams - CB - Florida State 
     His arrest over the weekend may drop him down some draft boards, but there may not be a more NFL ready cornerback.  A polished bump and run defender, he lacks only desire to play every down.  Will be an island defender if his attitude ever matches his athletic gifts.

4.  Jordan Philips - NT - Oklahoma
     Huge two-gap space eater who has the athleticism to dominate the interior of the Patriots' run defense.  Flashes dominance most of the time, but has no pass rush moves at all which is leading to him falling toward the end of the 1st round.  New England's comfort factor with current nose tackle Sealver Siliga will likely determine direction with this pick.

5. Benardrick McKinney - ILB - Mississippi State
     Tall, powerfully built inside linebacker with the requisite athleticism to take the tight end up the seam, and with the strength to take on offensive linemen at the point of attack and throw them aside to make the play.  May never be a star in the league, but will be a solid Belichick-type playmaker in the middle, freeing up Hightower and Collins to do what they do.

6. Quentin Rollins - CB - Miami (Ohio)
     A video game quality press corner who rarely gives a receiver room to breathe, though he will experience a vastly superior talent level going to the NFL from the MAC - has only one year of college football experience and has been a corner only for that one season, so his learning curve is steep and receivers in the NFL will be able to take him outside in until he gains some playing experience -  but once that happens with good coaching, he has every trait desired for a shutdown corner.

7. Jay Ajayi -RB - Boise State
     Beast Mode 2.0? Ajayi's soccer background marries well with his powerful running style and he is difficult to knock off balance.  Rarely goes down on initial contact, which is both good and bad, as ball security becomes lax once he breaks the initial tackle.  The prize-winning attribute as far as the Patriots are concerned is the fact that he is an every down back with the best hands and best route running in the draft class.  If they are indeed looking for a replacement for Ridley and Vereen, they can get it in one fell swoop with Ajayi.

8. La'el Collins - OT/G - LSU
     Limited tackle prospect because of suspect handwork on the edge, instead projects as a nasty, mauling right guard in the NFL.  Mean and intimidating and will get you on the next play if he happens to get beaten.  Will excel in a more power-driven running scheme.

9. Ronald Darby - CB - Florida State
     Speed, speed and more speed.  Darby has world-class sprinter's speed and uses it to keep the top on the receiver.  In his desire to keep the top on, however, he can be beaten underneath if the receiver breaks off the route.  Susceptible to the outside-in move but plays press and off-man with equal success.  Must keep his hands to himself.

10. Phillip Dorsett - WR - Miami
     Video game speed, winning matchups with pure speed on the outside.  Can and will take the top off of the defense, but still very raw in route running, which would not endear him to Brady, and his hands are suspect at times, particularly when going into the tall pines over the middle.  But still, that speed....

11. Eric Kendricks - OLB - UCLA
     An interior tackling demon for the Bruins, he projects as a weakside linebacker in the pros and may be the best coverage linebacker in the draft class.  Classic edge-setter in the running game and has man coverage ability underneath.  An excellent choice if the Patriots are concerned about Jerod Mayo's long-term health.

12. Marcus Peters - CB - Washington
     A tantrum waiting to happen, Peters has everything a coach could want in a press corner and can outright stuff and intimidate the opposing receiver, but is emotionally immature and was constantly in the doghouse in college.  Would be a perfect bookend for Malcolm Butler on the wings if he takes to coaching.

 13. Shaq Thompson - OLB/RB - Washington
     His college coach sees his best fit as a running back, while many draft experts see him as either a 4-3 outside linebacker or as a strong safety.  He's a classic tweener with excellent hands and a dogged pursuit artist who can cover running backs wheeling out into the pattern - in effect, the perfect Big Nickle safety/linebacker  hybrid who could double up as an emergency third running back or even as a Vereen-like passing back.  That type of versatility could land him on the team, and give Belichick more options on his game-day roster.

14. Denzel Perryman - ILB -  Miami
     Short, stocky and mean two-down linebacker who will knock the chocolate out of the ball carrier.  Liability in pass coverage but an absolute load in the running game, particularly in taking on the offensive linemen on the second level.

15. A. J. Cann - G - South Carolina
     Left guard prospect that will fit into a power scheme more effectively than a zone scheme.  Handles defensive tackles well and is rarely bull rushed in pass protection.  Is still growing into his body and needs to add another 15 pounds of muscle but can be expected to be a Day 1 starter on the left.

16. Stephone Anthony - ILB - Clemson
     A shade below McKinney in athleticism and not as instinctive, though he has better ball skills as a coverage linebacker and has a better chance of sticking with a tight end or running back.  More of a finesse player, comparatively, but a good downhill player.

17. Tre Jackson - G - Florida State
      A more fleshy than muscular mauler who relies on size more than strength or technique.  However, one of the better leveraged guards in the class and the excess weight doesn't seem to affect his movement, but could probably stand to convert some of the flab into muscle.  Stays anchored in pass protection and grades out as one of the better guards in that respect.

18. Laken Thomlinson - G - Duke
     A nasty left guard who didn't allow a sack in the past two seasons despite playing against elite-level defensive tackles in the ACC.  Has zero athleticism, but anchors against bull rushers and even made Washington nose tackle Danny Shelton look average in senior bowl reps.  Best in a phone booth where he can overpower defenders.

19. Byron Jones - CB/FS - Connecticut
     Highly intelligent and instinctive defensive back who has a bit of a combination of Ras-I Dowling and Kyle Arrington in his DNA.  Dowling for his fragility and lack of physicality and Arrington for his ability to lose his man in vertical coverage.  That said, Free safety seems to be his natural position and if the Patriots were to draft him, it might signal a move for Devin McCourty back to corner, where he started his career - but that seems unlikely.

20. Darius Philon - DT - Arkansas
     Darkhorse interior rusher with a knack for beating his mirror by a large margin.  he is light but has a variety of powerful penetration moves.  Will only succeed on a defense that primarily runs a 4-3 as he is too light to be anything other than a 3-5 tech situational pass rusher, but the sky is the limit for this kid in that capacity.