26 April, 2020
Bill Belichick has a different process for evaluating players in the draft than most, and it's worked out pretty well so far.
That's why it's close to impossible to nail down who he's going to select in the draft - that is unless you consider that Belichick doesn't select players based solely on collegiate performance, he selects them based on the bag full of squirrels running around in his brain that conjures ways of utilizing them to open up his playbook.
Sure he recognizes that he has holes to fill in the lineup and that is part of the equation, which also factors in things like potential attrition and measurables, but the deciding factor when selecting a player is left to Belchick's imagination.
The New England Patriots' 2020 draft haul may be the most diverse and incongruent of his Patriots' career, declining to select the big name that excites fans and opting for players that makes his imagination run wild with possibilities - and once the people who make their living generating mock drafts get that through their heads, they can start understanding that Belichick actually targets players throughout the process and sticks to his board...
...selecting players in order from top to bottom, no matter what round the draft experts project those players to be drafted, and things like level of competition in college means little in his grand scheme.
I'm starting to get it (I got two out of the ten picks correct) but I will never fully understand - that said, one can be sure that once Belichick makes his selections, the method behind his madness starts to make sense, and optimism reigns.
Going into this week's draft, the experts prioritized the outside linebacker, quarterback and tight end positions as needs for the Patriots, and to a certain extent, they were right - but the players that they projected as good fits for Belichick's roster were bypassed by the Dark Master in favor of the little known players in which he imagines can help open up his playbook, incorporating their skill sets into the maw rather than plugging them into a stringent template.
Take the way he approached the tight end position, for example. In my mock, I had him drafting two tight ends, Dayton's Adam Trautman in the third round due to his label as a combination tight end, and LSU's Thaddeus Moss for his traditional "H-back" skill set - and he did select two tight ends, trading up twice in the third round to take players that weren't even on most people's radars.
UCLA's Devin Asiasi is a potential seam buster with good speed and excellent vision and movement in space, while also being a handy red zone threat on fades and has a knack for finding the dead spots in zone coverages, while Virgina Tech's Dalton Keene will remind many of the skill set possessed by former-Patriots' tight end Aaron Hernandez, who was used in the H-back role by Belichick, lining up all over the formation.
Many will wonder why Belichick traded up into the second round to select Michigan outside linebacker Josh Uche when there were so many bigger names left on the draft board, but the undersized edge rusher is a speed demon that can blow by tackles and is an accomplished blitzer who can also hold his own in coverage, carrying his routes further downfield than many in the same position.
Another reason why Belichick called Uche's name is that he played opposite 2019 draft pick Chase Winovich, who together terrorized opposing passers. That chemistry should translate to the field this fall as Winovich is ready for a breakout season as a starting defensive end after limited snaps in his rookie season.
The other linebacker that Belichick selected, Alabama's Anfernee Jennings, isn't much in the pass rush or in coverage- though he notched eight sacks and defended five passes last season - but is pure hell in the running game, setting the edge by tossing tight ends and tackles aside and forcing plays back to the inside, where bigger bodies await.
A tackling machine, Jennings logged 83 tackles in thirteen games in his senior season with the 'Tide, 13 of those coming behind the line of scrimmage.
Jennings' and Uche's skill sets are particularly important for Belichick's defense, as they address issues that the defense has had for years - stopping the running game on the edges and coverage on running backs curling out into the pass pattern.
To further demonstrate his resolve to eliminate these negative impacts, as well as address the demise of Patrick Chung's skill set, Belichick used his second round draft pick marvelously, snagging the best box safety in the draft, Lenoir-Rhyne's Kyle Dugger.
Built like a freight train and striking like one as well, Dugger has the potential to be the centerpiece for Belichick's aggressive Cover-Zero look. Blessed with the rare combination of elite size, speed and explosiveness, Dugger compares more-than-favorably to former NFLer Adrian Wilson, who played at an All-Pro level for much of his career.
Unlike Chung, Dugger is the type of player that opposing offensive coordinators must game plan for and account for on every play, and he will make backs and tight ends think twice about extending for balls, especially over the middle - and he is an absolute load in run defense.
If Belichick got nothing else of value in the draft, Dugger makes his defensive draft grade out as a solid "A", but by adding Uche's elite pass rushing skills and coverage ability in the flat, combined with Jennings' edge-setting prowess, he addressed all of the needs of the defense with superior athletes who should contribute right away.
That is, all but one need, as Belichick passed on pure nose tackles in the draft, instead opting for quick but limited inside linebacker Cassh Maluia out of Wyoming, who is a projectile but needs some professional coaching to become anything more than a taxi squad player.
The same holds true on the other side of the ball, where Belichick tapped three developmental offensive linemen, though another Wolverine, guard Mike Onwenu, could bring his massive 350 pound frame into play as a road-grading power run blocker. Wake Forest guard Justin Herron possesses the footwork to work in a zone run blocking scheme and to provide solid interior pass protection, though he could stand to bulk up a bit.
Perhaps the most intriguing of the three linemen is Memphis center Dustin Woodward, a lightweight relative to the position at 6' 2" and only 285 pounds who is not going to beat out incumbent center David Andrews, but has a high upside as a backup center and guard and is valuable insurance in the event Andrews can not fully resume his role due to missing all of last season with blood clot issues.
But the most Belichickian moment of the draft came when he used his fifth round selection on a linebacker-sized kicker who prides himself on his consistency in foul-weather, game-winning situations. Marshall's Justin Rohrwesser stands 6' 3" and 230 pounds, and when he puts all of it behind his kicks, the ball explodes off his foot, straight and true...
...which is what you want from a place kicker, after all. But what really sets Rohrwesser apart from his peers coming out in the 2020 draft class is the control he shows of the ball on kickoffs, routinely forcing the kick returner to have to play the ball, with enough hang time to allow his coverage teams to arrive under the ball, an important field possession weapon.
All in all, and though it means little coming from me, Belichick deserves a solid "A" in the draft class. Even if his developmental guys don't pan out, he got plenty of value for his roster in rounds two through five, drafting six players who should be major assets to the team immediately.
