Patriots' Lack Of Outside-The-Numbers Receivers A Concern Against Broncos' "No Fly Zone"

The New England Patriots are at a distinct disadvantage going into their matchup with the Broncos in Denver on Sunday night, and until this past Thursday afternoon, it was something that they could do little about.

The Denver Broncos, as usual, sport one of the best defensive units in the National Football League, ranking fourth in the league in pass defense and are fifth against the run - and when one adds in the fact that the Patriots have traditional had a difficult time generating offense in the Mile High City, all of the signs point to a stagnation of what is a potential juggernaut.

Adding to the Patriots' woes is the fact that they have only two wide receivers that are fully healthy and just three that are going to suit up for the game, a circumstance that plays right into the strength of the Broncos' defense: their secondary.

Known as the "No-Fly Zone", Denver's secondary has given Patriots' quarterback Tom Brady a rough go in the recent past, holding the greatest of all time to 177 passing yards in their last encounter, a hard-fought 16-3 Patriots victory last season - and that was with Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan and Malcolm Mitchell in the lineup, three cats that won't be in uniform on Sunday night.

What they do have, however, may be enough to keep the Broncos' secondary busy, but in a different way.

That is mainly because one pass catcher who did miss that last contest and that will be dressed and ready for this year's battle is tight end Rob Gronkowski, who can change the complexion of a game single-handedly - and when combined with recently reacquired tight end Martellus Bennett, they give the Patriots a way to put stress on Denver's safeties and linebackers in manner that they weren't able to last season.

Bennett actually played in that game in Denver, but like everyone else not named Edelman, he struggled to get open, catching just two balls for 35 yards - though his real impact came in the running game, as his powerful pulling and blocking helped running back Dion Lewis pick up 5.3 yards per carry as the sole difference maker on the stat sheet.

That win actually seems like a precursor to what is going on with the Patriots' offense in the last four games of this season, red zone struggles leading to leaving points on the field, New England settling for field goals instead of scoring touchdowns - but things should be a little different this time around, especially if Bennett, who made the trip to Denver with the team and is a game-time decision, suits up and plays.

How effective he would be remains to be seen, but there should be a sense of optimism with Patriots' fans in regard to his readiness to play, as he is coming off three-weeks of R&R and has likely retained the Patriots' offensive playbook with intimate clarity - but if he doesn't play, New England is up against it against the Broncos' pass defense, as they will likely load up the pass rush and come after Brady with gusto.

And why not? The only healthy receivers on the depth chart are speedy vertical targets in Brandin Cooks and the seldom targeted Phillip Dorsett, and slot man Danny Amendola is going to try and play through a bum knee. Gronkowski is the only tight end worth note, and the lack of outside-the-numbers targets for New England could help the Broncos keep him penned up with linebacker-safety double teams...

...while the potent Denver pass rush could be compounded by rogue blitzers that could negate any potential contribution from the Patriots' backs, forcing them to remain in the pocket to help protect Brady.

Either way, there is no easy solution to what the Broncos are on defense, which is built in such a way that they can stop the run (second in the NFL by allowing just 3.4 yards per carry) and force the ball to the air, and with New England being so short outside of the numbers, that could make for a long evening - and don't be fooled by the fact that they are ranked 25th in the league in scoring defense, as their ranking has fallen precipitously by their injury-driven collapse in the past two games.

They gave up 29 points to a potent Chiefs offense two weeks ago and the Eagles offensive juggernaut hung a fifty-burger on them last week, but those teams are far healthier on offense than the Patriots are now, plus New England's well-known struggles in the red zone may very well come into play. The only solution is for New England to grind it out with the run, move the chains and take well-timed shots downfield.

The Patriots' defense and special teams play a major role in this scenario, as the way to beat any team in the National Football League is to make it as difficult as possible for the opposing offense to reach paydirt.

In the last four games, punter Ryan Allen, kicker Stephen Gostkowski and the New England coverage teams have managed to flip field position on their opponents with regularity, ranking second in the NFL in opponent's starting position, which forces the opposing offense to have to go further to get into scoring position - which is a good thing, since the defense has been giving up nearly forty yards per drive.

Of course, the Broncos' offense has been a middle-of-the-pack entity all season, but have taken a nose dive in the past four games - all four of them recorded as losses - failing to break the 200 passing yards plateau and being held short of seventy yards rushing in three of those games, and averaging a minute 13 points per game...

...which is almost exactly what the Patriots' defense has given up in that time span (12.5), though Denver can take solace in the fact that New England remains last in the league in total yardage surrendered, and that Defensive coordinator Matt Patricia has been holding his secondary together with duct tape and prayers.

They are dead last in total defense, in passing yards yielded and in yards per carry in the running game - which is mitigated to a large degree by the fact that New England stiffens the deeper the opponent gets into their territory, ranking fifth in the league in red zone defense - a stat line that justifies their bend-but-don't-break philosophy.

So what does all of this mean?

Absolutely nothing, as when these two teams get together it always seems to turn into a barn-burner, an instant classic with plenty of defense and usually the team that has the football last tends to win the game - but if the Patriots can somehow find a way to run the ball on offense and stop the run on defense, as tall task either way, they could cruise to an easy win...

...but if not, they could struggle mightily and turn a simple sweep and clear of a downward-trending Broncos team into a street fight that comes down to the last possession.