Showing posts with label NFL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFL. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 25, 2020

Patriots’ New Offensive Philosophy Isn’t New, It’s Just Evolving


Bill Belichick is a freaking wizard, and once again we are about to witness his magic.

In fact, the 2020 NFL season will come to be known as Belichick’s finest hour, as it were – not so much tied to success on the field, but for finally being able to build his New England Patriots in his own gruff image.

I’ve always enjoyed watching Belichick build his team from the ground up each summer, but not as much as I’ve enjoyed this year’s effort thus far. He had a difficult – some say insurmountable – number of obstacles to navigate even before the pandemic swept across the country, and the resultant social distancing mandates made his task ten-times more daunting.


But “difficult” and “daunting” are challenges that fall right into Belichick’s wheelhouse.

We got our first look at his mindset during the draft, a fascinating, eclectic class of rookies whose selections seemed right on point with what he needed to propagate the theory that he’s been building towards this moment for the past four seasons…

…and although his method caused quarterback Tom Brady to go berserk and probably caused last-year’s late season collapse as well, there’s no doubt that this season’s incarnation of the New England Patriots will offer up a far better product than if he had not been building towards life without Brady.

The evidence is compelling, particularly along the offensive line. Starting with Shaq Mason and David Andrews in 2015, Belichick has assembled a group of linemen who are better a plowing the row than pass blocking – but to be fair, the aforementioned Mason and Andrews, along with 2016 third-round pick Joe Thuney and 2018 top pick Isaiah Wynn, have gradually improved in pass blocking…

…perhaps not consistently enough to protect a statue in the pocket, but plenty good enough to scheme around the talents of Cam Newton, who is now the favorite to win the starting quarterback job (as if he wasn’t the moment he signed his contract).

Initially, the line was being gradually constructed to meld with the skill set of Jimmy Garoppolo, whom the Patriots drafted in the second round of the 2014 NFL draft as the heir apparent to Brady. Garoppolo is much more ambulatory than Brady and, as such, required an offensive line that is more athletic than stout.

You know, guards that can pull into the flat on a designed roll out, or who can slip onto the second level and neutralize a linebacker, and tackles who have the ability to chip defensive ends and drift out to lead the screen plays that are a staple of Belichick’s method of operation.

But when Brady (Kraft?) forced Garoppolo out of the building in 2017 - right in the middle of the building process - it forced Belichick’s hand. His choices were to either scrap his philosophy and cater to Brady’s insistence that he was determined to play into his mid-forties, or to continue along the path he had designed for Garoppolo.

Of course, it went against conventional wisdom that Brady would still be playing at a high level three years later, so Belichick maintained course and heading, knowing that his personnel acquisition was moving the offense away from Brady’s strengths in favor of a hopefully seamless transition to a quarterback that embodies the latest trends in the league, that being a renaissance of sorts to the old-school, smashmouth ways of yesteryear.

Some are speculating a return to the early seasons of the millennium, a power-based running attack to open up play action and to clear defined passing lanes, and while that is the hope on my end, Newton’s presence adds another dynamic

And since any philosophy in football is built from the inside out, Belichick has stocked the offensive line with smaller, lighter linemen with quick feet, excellent football acumen, and a mean streak a mile wide.

Of all the starters along the offensive line, left guard Joe Thuney is the tallest at 6’ 5”, followed by (presumptive) right tackle Jermaine Eluemunor at 6’ 4”, center David Andrews at 6’ 3”, left tackle Isaiah Wynn at 6’ 2” and right guard Shaq Mason at 6’ 1” – with only Eluemunor checking in at over 310 pounds. 

The NFL average for an offensive lineman is 315 pounds, the average height, 6’ 4”.
Again, only Eluemunor checks in at or above the size of the average NFL Lineman, and he wasn’t drafted by New England, brought in on a trade with Baltimore to help assuage the massive injuries that befell the Patriots last season.

All of that said and true, it is no coincidence that Belichick has assembled the smallest, yet most athletic offensive line in football – and all he needed was a quarterback to surround with it.

That’s when Cameron Jerrell Newton fell right into his lap.

Newton isn’t just a mobile quarterback. In fact, he was the gold standard for mobile quarterbacks when he entered the league in 2011, initiating a trend towards more option-based offenses that have swept through the league in the past decade.

But the real indication of Belichick’s commitment to a more diverse, power-based attack came with the drafting of two tight ends, both of whom should step right into vital roles all over the formation and will complete the blocking scheme.

The health of the line as a whole combined with the drafting of the versatile tight ends and the presence of Newton suggests that the product that Belichick is going to field will be different from what we’ve witnessed in the past couple of decades under his rule – but not so different that it will be unrecognizable.

The same concepts will be in play, but this time Belichick will be building his roster from the ground up in his own image instead of trying to fit square pegs into round holes in order to appease Brady, because now the hole is square and all of the personnel moves that he has made in the past few years should fit beautifully.

After all, that’s what the Dark Master has had up his sleeve the entire time…

Monday, August 10, 2020

Belichick Will Have To Get Creative To Help Patriots’ Defense Survive Devastating Loss Of Talent


Eight different members of the New England Patriots have opted out of the 2020 NFL season for reasons related to the ongoing pandemic, and while three of them were counted on to be integral components, their loss opens the door for some talented players waiting in the wings…

…but now, thanks to those players opting out, the Patriots also have almost $35 million in cap space that they could potentially use to bring in a seasoned veteran or two to stem the tide of departures from the depth chart.

Under normal Belichickian standards, those aforementioned young and talented players would essentially go through a “Redshirt” season, seeing minimal action while they watch and learn from the veterans ahead of them on the depth chart, but head coach Bill Belichick appears to have lost the luxury of bringing his newbies along slowly.
Both Chung (23) and Hightower (54) have opted-out of 2020 season

Fortunately, of the players on the list of opt-outs, only the loss of linebacker Dont’a Hightower and right tackle Marcus Cannon are considered problematic, as there is no proven talent behind them on the depth chart – but especially Hightower, as his decision robs the Patriots of not only their play-calling defensive captain, it also leaves the linebacking corps looking more like a Senior Bowl lineup…

…going from a “Who’s who” pack of speedy sack masters to a “Who’s that?” group of rookies and journeyman part-timers that, from the outside, looks like a serious degradation of the talent level.

But these are the New England Patriots, and Belichick is the quintessential boy scout who is always prepared – and while some (most) believe that he was unprepared last season to deal with all of the injuries that crippled his team, the simple fact of the matter is that he was preparing his team for life beyond the dynasty in hopes of creating a new one.

Replacing Hightower And Chung

This is likely to be a game-to-game scenario, which is how Belichick operates anyway.

Belichick is the master game-planner who builds his teams with the Patriots’ schedule in mind. It is said that coaches build their teams to match up with teams in their division, which makes sense on the surface, given that they play each team twice – but in reality, that means that each team plays only six of their sixteen regular season games in-division, leaving ten games against non-division foes…

…so their success or failure in making the post-season lies mainly on how they fare against the ten other teams on their schedule, and somehow, someway, Belichick seems to be able to game plan for every single team, every single week – and he uses his entire roster, even if it’s just in one or two plays throughout the season.

Situational football is what Belichick lives for, and the options that he has for covering the “Will” linebacker spot that Hightower has vacated are actually quite plentiful, if not traditional.

For the past two seasons, Belichick has employed strong safety Patrick Chung in the position at times, and though Chung has also opted out, some the players that they have brought in through free agency and the draft to eventually replace the aging box safety are looking more and more fortuitous as time goes on…

…and the draft also produced a couple of off-the-ball linebackers who possesses the skill set to contribute in the multiple-layer infusion to replace the volume of talent the Patriots lost not only when Hightower opted out, but also the loss of Jamie Collins, Kyle Van Noy and Elandon Roberts in free agency.

It makes sense for Belichick to look at veteran journeyman Brandon Copeland to provide some snaps in Hightower’s stead, but there’s a reason why the Penn product has bounced around the league since entering the NFL as an undrafted free agent in 2014.

He is a man without a true position, initially entering the league as a 265 pound defensive end with impressive speed for the position, but with suspect lateral agility in the pass rush and found himself out of the league for a couple of seasons – then reinvented himself as an outside linebacker for the 2015 veteran combine, shedding twenty pounds and, as a result, trimming two-tenths of a second off of his forty…

…and while that improved his straight-line speed, it did little to improve his agility. At his best, Copeland, who’s weight now stands at 255, is a strong-side, edge-setting linebacker who willingly takes on tight ends on the edge, but also gets regularly swallowed up in the maw, leaving an inside track for runners.

As a result, he found himself as a rotational player for both the Lions and Jets, his greatest contribution being on special teams. With his lack of lateral agility, I can’t see him as a regular part of the lineup, especially if the rookies on the roster can make an immediate impact in camp.

Michigan’s Josh Uche is the favorite to take on the “Will” role vacated by Hightower due to his “tweener” skill set. Though he won many battles as an edge rusher in college, his size could work against him against offensive tackles and tight ends in the pros unless he is schemed as an interior linebacker in a 3-4 defensive alignment, where he could roll to the edge in run defense and attack interior gaps as a blitzer in pass defense.

He possess more speed than Hightower and is fluid in underneath coverages, and the fact that he models his game after the late Sean Taylor, those box safety-like instincts and versatility has to have Belichick salivating at the possibilities of deploying Uche in the middle of his “Amoeba” defense.

As anyone who knows football is familiar with, the difference between the aforementioned box safety and a coverage linebacker is in name only, and since Belichick likes to employ his strong safeties as coverage linebackers, Uche fits that bill – but he’s not the only player on the roster who does.

Belichick’s top pick in the 2020 draft, safety Kyle Dugger, possesses the most versatility of any player on the Patriots’ defense and, as such, he could fill a different role in just about any alignment. A violent striker in space with the speed to handle the back end as well.

Dugger’s coaches at the Senior Bowl tried him at the single high safety position and as a hybrid linebacker who fills well in run support and excels at underneath coverages. He has the size to hold his own at the “Will” spot, where, as mentioned, Belichick used Chung at times to handle the better tight ends in the league.

Former Los Angeles Chargers’ safety Adrian Phillips was signed by Belichick in free agency, most likely to make him more comfortable in facilitating a trade with the Detroit Lions that sent Big Nickel safety Duron Harmon packing in a salary cap move. Phillips is also capable of reducing down into the box, but his presence only adds fuel to the speculation that Dugger will play a major role – something we will get into in a later article.

But with both Phillips and Dugger on the roster, Belichick should be able to continue fielding three safeties in both his Big Nickel and Amoeba packages, especially the latter, which is defined by no definition, a “formation” that is constantly shifting shape during the offensive cadence, making it close to impossible for the quarterback to set his protection at the line because he has no idea where the pressure will be coming from.

And that is important to remember about this defense. In the Amoeba, all of the defenders are juking and shifting as if they are rushing the quarterback, then at the snap, some defenders rush while others fall back into coverage so it is imperative that Belichick have as many versatile athletes on the field…

…and while the Amoeba is geared more towards late-down, long-yardage situations, the presence of players like Uche, Dugger and Phillips, along with young breakout candidates in linebackers Ja’Whaun Bentley and Chase Winovich, he could employ the tactic on early downs as well, albeit with a tweak or two.

All of that said, there is no guarantee with the newbies on the roster, but the versatility in their individual skill sets actually gives Belichick more options both in coverages and in run support than he had with more traditionally-skilled defenders in Hightower and Chung – but that doesn’t mean those players won’t be missed, it simply means that Belichick will have to open up his playbook a little wider, which isn’t a bad thing…

Friday, July 24, 2020

Newton Offers Increased Optionality For Patriots’ Offense


Optionality is a financial term that, in short, is the value of additional optional investment opportunities available only after having made an initial investment, and with the recent signing of quarterback Cam Newton, the New England Patriots are suddenly lousy with those additional opportunities – not only in terms of cap dollars, but also on the playing field.

Most teams’ average investment on the quarterback position runs at about 16% of their cap space, which includes both the starter and the backup(s), but with Newton signing a bargain-basement contract, the Patriots’ investment of 1.5% is the greatest value in the league. Even if Newton reaches all of the incentives on his contract, the Patriots still come in at just a quarter of what other teams are spending.


Combined with the grievance relief that the team was granted from the league over the contracts of Aaron Hernandez and Antonio Brown, the Patriots suddenly find themselves with maneuverability in their cap space, opening up options on the free agent market, though they will most likely keep that money in reserve in hopes that Newton does reach those incentives.

Hopeful, because a successful Newton will likely mean success for the entire team.

As mentioned, optionality (in the context of football), isn’t limited to cap dollars, it also translates to the playing field as their investment in Newton expands the playbook in ways that have to have Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels salivating…

…and also translates to Newton himself, who, with a successful season, can capitalize on the investment he’s made in himself by signing what amounts to a “Prove It” contract, opening up options and giving him leverage in contract negotiations beyond the 2020 season, be they with the Patriots or on the open market.

That said and true, many around the National Football League are still wondering why a former-MVP in the prime of his football career would settle for a one year contract from the New England Patriots with so little guaranteed money that it looks like a mid-round rookie deal.

Why, indeed!

The market for Newton wasn’t what one would call robust, but wouldn’t it have been better for him to wait until camps opened and the inevitable injuries occurred, prompting panicked head coaches to reach out to him with an exponentially lucrative offer?

In the short term, that probably would have been the way to go for the former first-round draft pick of the Carolina Panthers, but taking over for an injured starter has many different layers to it, and the process can become so convoluted that it becomes volatile at a point in his career where stability is paramount, lest he become sadly known as a journeyman…

…but in the long-term, New England looks to be the perfect place for the of-late, oft-injured trend-setter to not only revive what was once a spectacular career, but to also market his wares in order to gain a contract more befitting a player of his ability.

The Patriots have all the tools in place to help Newton do just that, and with their 2021 cap situation looking far better than this season’s dead-money albatross, Newton could easily find himself the franchise signal caller.

Newton is no dummy. He’s betting on himself to regain his pre-injury dynamism, and he chose the best place in the league to try and accomplish just that. Most athletes in his position and with such a celebrated past are looking for the best money and see themselves as a savior of sorts, stepping in with the mind-set that they alone can elevate the team to relevance…

…and it is far too early to project whether Newton fits into that category, especially given his flamboyancy and confidence, but the fact that he signed for the veteran minimum in guarantees gives one the impression that his only goal is to prove that he is still relevant.

Belichick is no dummy, either, as he likely sees Newton as a super-sized, more athletic version of his long-lost favorite son, Jimmy Garoppolo, whom he was building around to accommodate his skill set as the heir to Brady – so much so that even after Garoppolo was traded, the Dark Master continued along the chosen path, knowing that he was already locked in to a philosophy that would end the dynasty had he kept hold of Brady for a couple of more years.

We all saw it, right? The talent that Belichick built his 2019 team with didn’t jibe with Brady’s skill set at all, causing the greatest of all time to bitch and bristle about iron deficiency of the offense. It was purposeful on the part of Belichick, as he wasn’t about to be caught with his pants down once Brady left – and certainly not after the weird contract that Brady signed before the start of the season that left Brady with all of the leverage.

So Newton, assuming he beats out Jarrett Stidham for the starting role, steps into a ready-made offense that plays fabulously into his style.

It’s worth noting that neither Belichick nor McDaniels are likely to move off their spot so far as their conceptual philosophies are concerned, nor should they, but it goes to figure that if Newton is indeed under center, his presence allows for expansion and evolution of the concepts.

We are about to witness a much more diverse and open Patriots’ offense, perhaps one that is more powerful and exciting than in years past. Where the offense was a model of efficiency and consistency with Brady at the helm, with a ratio between the running game and passing game consistently around 40:60, with Newton calling the signals that should flatten out to a more even mixture…

…and not for any reason other than that’s the way Belichick’s team-building philosophy has been trending, and with Newton on board, the perfect storm exists for the Patriots’ dynastic ways to continue.

How? The answer to that question starts in my next article, which reveals the fact that the Patriots’ offensive line and zone-blocking scheme are perfect compliments to Newton’s skill set.

Saturday, May 9, 2020

Belichick To Roll With Stidham And The Receivers He's Got, Because That Was His Plan All Along

May 8, 2020

So, Bill Belichick didn't select any wide receivers in this year's NFL Draft, but at least he doesn't have Tom Brady around to bitch about it.

In reality, however, Belichick's New England Patriots are pretty stacked at the pass catching positions, so long as his wide receivers and tight ends do the job that they are capable of - but with a new quarterback under center, nothing's a given.

Indeed, the Patriots are entering the 2020 season with plenty of mystery surrounding their receiving corps, with only greybeard Julian Edelman, sophomore Jakobi Meyers and passing back James White the only known quantity - and while we got a little taste of what second-year perimeter threat N'Keal Harry and veteran Mohamed Sanu bring to the field, they are largely question marks...

...as are newcomers Damiere Byrd and Marquise Lee, both with undeniable measurables and speed to burn, but both having underachieved thus far in their brief professional football careers - and the advantage that all of them have is working with the aforementioned new, young quarterback who doesn't seem to have the same obsession with perfection that Brady did.

Not that expecting your receivers to be where they are supposed to be on the route tree is a bad thing, but Brady's heat-of-the-moment, Sam Kinison-style of explosive expression seemed to make his young pass catchers tense up so badly that Harry looked like he was running with a corn cob up his ass near the end of the season.

Stidam is young, so he also needs his receivers to be where he expects them to be, but with the fear of pissing off the greatest quarterback of all time no longer dominating their subconscious minds, maybe they can relax a little and work on their craft instead of running away from it.

I love Tom Brady, make no mistake. What Brady gave to the people of New England - to the entire sports world - was nineteen years of the most clutch performances ever seen. When Brady signed with Tampa, my wife tried to peel the Fathead of Brady off of the cave wall, but I defended it like a wolverine and finally calmed her down enough to allow me to explain to her why it was staying in it's place of honor.

I told her of my admiration of Brady and reminded her of all of the excitement and joy he was responsible for, of how he turned us both into adrenalin junkies by making us stew in anxiety during the two weeks between Championship Sunday and Super Bowl Sunday, then really amped us up by making the crucial plays on the biggest stage in sports to win six of those world titles...

...and having his team in position to steal the three that he lost. He has been the one, lone constant on the field for New England for all nine championship runs, and I am thankful and humbled to have been able to witness every single throw.

One of the best passes I ever saw Brady make was the seriously filthy timing throw on a ten-yard out pattern to Danny Amendola, who was well covered by an Atlanta Falcons' defender on the winning drive in the overtime period of Super Bowl 51. The ball exploded out of Brady's hand with the requisite zip required of such a pattern, but with just barely enough loft to evade the nickelback's fingers...

...the Patriots scoring to win their fifth Lombardi Trophy, Brady taking the opening kickoff of overtime and shoving it down the Falcons' collective throat to complete the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history, perhaps the greatest of all time. I recanted the tale to my wife, who looked at me thoughtfully and said, "He's still a dumb-ass for throwing that pick-six right before halftime."

Brady. You either love him or you hate him, but no matter which way you lean, you have no choice but to respect him.

Brady epitomized the not-so-well-worn cliché uttered by the old-school "Voice of God", NFL Films' narrator John Facenda who said, "Great players aren't great all the time; they're just great when they have to be.". My wife understood this, finally, despite being an insane female hybrid of Oscar Zeta Acosta and John Cleese, who would fly into a sputtering, animated rage when Brady threw an interception (see above).

But as crazy as it sounds, the way that Belichick has stocked the offense over the past half-decade was in preparation for life without Brady - unfortunately for Brady, that meant the offensive personnel last season was geared more towards a power-based philosophy, or at least it became that way when the offense lost their center, both fullbacks and Harry for half of the season...

...while Edelman played broken after missing a few games, and Sanu never really became part of the offense, dealing with a bum ankle that required offseason surgery - the tight ends didn't do squat, leaving the undrafted rookie Meyers as the only healthy receiver, making it easy for defenses to take away the Patriots' running game as well.

That said, the caveat for this season's offense will have to be the well-worn cliché "If Healthy".

"If Healthy", the Patriots have the receivers to force any defense to defend the entire field, with Harry working the perimeter, Sanu the intermediate routes, Edelman and Meyers working the middle and either Byrd or Lee clearing out the trash as deep threats. To make matters even worse for defenses, Belichick drafted two capable tight ends to handle the seam and safety valve responsibilities.

And, of course, all of that opens up room for the real star of the passing game, running back James White, who along with his battery mates Damien Harris, Rex Burkhead and Sony Michel, will also work in the power running game behind an offensive line built to plow the row.

All Stidham needs to be is proficient, the rest has been done for him. Just get the ball to where it needs to be and let his weapons be weapons. If he can command his troops on the field, earn their respect and manage the game plans, the Patriots have as good a chance as anyone to win the AFC East.

Sunday, May 3, 2020

Belichick's Obsession With Safeties Paying Off In A Big Way

3 May, 2020

Lewiston, Maine

Time was, the safety position on the football field was the catch-all for players who were good athletes, but didn't have possess a skill set that translated to anything else.

When I first started playing football as a kid, I was the smallest player on the field but also the fastest. The coaches tried me at many different positions, but eventually "stuck" me at safety. I felt like the forgotten man, all alone on the back end, joining in on the play only when a kid on the opposing offense got past the first and second levels...
Rookie box safety Kyle Dugger

...which, as time wore on and I graduated from Pop Warner to middle school and then to high school ball, became more and more often. Since I was so small, I got trampled if I tried to take on receivers and running backs who broke into the open field, so to stay on the field and off the bench, I had to actually learn the nuances of the position.

That meant that I had to learn the route tree, study angles and work with a track coach to create an explosive first step. I played basketball and developed timing and stronger legs in order to meet the ball in the air - and I started playing hockey, which developed eye-hand coordination and taught me how to absorb big hits - and dish them out - without getting hurt.

In other words, I evolved and became a solid last line of defense as a single high safety who made opposing quarterbacks think twice about dropping bucket throws to deep receivers - not because I arrived at the apex with any kind of thunder, but because I could usually get a hand on the ball and break up the play and, on occasion, intercept the ball.

The point being, the safety positions have evolved into a specialty on every level of football, and have become far more than the last line of defense, no longer the dumping ground for aging cornerbacks or players whose skill set leaves them positionless - and in the New England Patriots' scheme, the safeties that they employ form a three-headed monster that makes their base defense different from every other in the National Football League.

They didn't invent it - the "Big Nickel" defense has been around for five decades - but they run it between sixty-and-seventy percent of the time, and it has been primarily responsible for a defense that has finished ranked in the top ten in nine of the ten years since head coach and general manager Bill Belichick started collecting safeties back in 2009, taking strong safety Patrick Chung with their first overall pick...

...picking up then-cornerback Devin McCourty with his first overall pick in the 2010 draft - the exact same draft that proved to be the talisman that necessitated the need for a three-safety alignment, Belichick selecting tight ends Rob Gronkowski in the second round and Aaron Hernandez two rounds later, then unleashing them on a league that had undervalued the tight end position, for the most part, since the late 70's.

Knowing that the NFL was a copy-cat entity and seeing that the Gronkowski-Hernandez tandem was tantalizingly successful, Belichick began putting together a group of safeties to combat the eventuality that other teams were going to try to copy what he had. He already had Chung and McCourty but needed a third wheel in order to run the Big Nickel alignment, so he used a 2015 third-round pick on a little-known safety out of Rutgers named Duron Harmon.

Harmon was speedy, big and tough, but had a rap on him coming out of college that he was one dimensional and would only fit in a cover-one scheme - a man/zone scheme that employed a single-high safety - as he was at his best seeing the play unfold in front of him and had sideline-to-sideline range and angle recognition to be that last line of defense.

Harmon blossomed into the best centerfielder in the league and earned a reputation as a closer, knocking away would-be scores and coming down with interceptions at the most critical of moments, usually late in games with the outcome still in doubt.

So while the alignment isn't original, it is old school, which is exactly the direction Belichick is taking his team, creating the roster in his image.

The issue he's faced with is that while he has a defensive secondary that is considered one of the best in the league, Belichick traded away Harmon to the Detroit Lions in a salary dump, but did sign former San Diego All Pro safety Adrian Phillips who, if he's fully recovered from a broken arm suffered in week two of last season, is just as rangy and explosive as Harmon.

To further strengthen the secondary, he also selected the best box safety in the class, maybe the best in the last two or three years, when he selected Kyle Dugger, a 6' 1", 220 pound thumper who was born to play the position, and is without a doubt Patrick Chung's eventual replacement - but for now, the presence of Dugger gives Belichick an intriguing set of options moving forward.

They could still run a three-safety package, as Dugger has the size and speed to body up on tight ends and to neutralize running backs wheeling out into the pattern in man coverage, and the violent intent and explosiveness to lay out receivers crossing over the middle in zone. Both McCourty and Phillips can handle the back end well enough, giving the Patriots the horses to continue running the Big Nickel.

Which is most probably the reason that he valued Dugger so much, because Chung and his damaged body may not make it through the entire 2020 season. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I can't recall a game last season that Chung didn't have to have the training staff trot onto the field to render acute medical assistance. Terrence Brooks did a serviceable job backing him up, but with so much quality in the safety corps, he may have a tough time cracking this roster.

That's not a bad problem to have, and considering the talent at cornerback, including AFC Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore and the interchangeable "J" quadruplets, Jason McCourty, Jonathan Jones, JC Jackson and JoeJuan Williams across from him, the potential exists for the Patriots to possess the best secondary in the league...

...which immeasurably helps a front six that returns stalwarts at linebacker and on the defensive line, plus some intriguing newbies from Belichick's solid draft and deft free agency pick ups that will aid in the pass rush and help set a hard edge in the run game.

The mix of talented veterans and exciting young fire pissers makes up the best group of safeties that Belichick has ever fielded, period, his obsession with collecting off-market safeties finally paying off in a big, big way.

Tuesday, April 24, 2018

Belichick Has Leverage, Many Options In Dealing With Gronkowski

Is Rob Gronkowski's time in New England coming to an end?

It's a rhetorical question, of course, because everyone has their own opinion on the matter - but what is there to make of his uber-childish behavior of late, almost as if he is daring the Patriots to trade him? And considering that the truth of the matter is that at this point, neither the pros nor the cons outweigh each other when it comes shipping him off to become someone else's issue?

The pros? Gronkowski will be twenty-nine years old next month and already has eight years of wear and tear on his scar-laced body - not to mention that the Patriots are probably tiring of his entitled, look-at-me attention grab. The cons? He is easily the best and most complete tight end in the league and is a game-changer.

Case in point: In games this past season when the Patriots were slow out of the gate and recorded sluggish first halfs, the adjustment at halftime always seemed to be finding ways to get the ball to Gronkowski, who would literally carry the offense on his back for entire drives.

In other words, when all seems lost because nothing else is working, the Patriots flip the Gronk switch.

He knows how valuable he is, and we all know what a loony, fun-loving guy he is - and Patriots' fans have appreciated the marriage of the two for as long as he's been in Foxborough. We gasp in marvel when he drags defenders down the field, we hold our breath every time he hits the turf for fear he won't get back up. We delight in his touchdown celebrations and subsequent "Earthquake" spikes that bound into the air higher than a Ryan Allen punt...

...there really hasn't been any occasion for Patriots' fans to be anything other than adoring of the happy-go-lucky man-child, until his demeanor turned to petulance, and now fans are turning on him in droves.

Admittedly, fans should be a little more patient with his immoderate act this offseason, but we have never seen this side of Gronkowski, the side that seems to scream entitlement during a period in the nation's history when it seems everyone feels entitled to something.

Politics aside - or perhaps on center stage, depending on your level of involvement and/or hysteria - it seems time to place a value on Gronkowski, as it pertains to his past performance and future expectations as gauged against the potential draft capital he could bring to the team if dealt away.

To that end, many are commenting on social media that the Patriots should expect a high first-round draft pick if they put Gronkowski up for bid, but given that he's tormented the Patriots with ambiguity and talk of retirement - not to mention his lengthy list of medical issues - the expectations of the fan base should be tempered a bit...

...while also remembering that Belichick's wheelhouse where he finds he best values is on the second day of the draft, so asking for multiple second day draft picks is sure to empower Belichick and make more willing whomever bids on Gronkowski to actually pull the trigger.

Madness, all of it - but not so far outside the realm of possibility that it can't be discussed with some decorum among polite people

That said, and assuming Belcihick has tired of Gronk's spoiled sophomoric antics, there are numerous teams that would be willing to trim their day two draft capital in order to obtain such game-changing talent. The Cleveland Browns own two first round picks and three second rounders, so one could envision them swapping one of the second rounders (Probably number sixty-four overall) and a fourth - and there's also the Indianapolis Colts who could easily let go of one of the their seconds and their third rounder for such a talent...

...or the Dallas Cowboys could be in the market with Jason Whitten nearing the end - but for the purposes of this tome we shall envision Bill Belichick making a deal with the San Francisco 49ers to send Gronkowski to be reunited with quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, for whom the 'Niners sent a metaphoric bag of peanuts to New England at last season's trade deadline, so they may be willing to let go of a little more in compensation.

However, it is unlikely that the 49ers would part with their first round draft pick, number nine overall, so in our scenario, the Patriots could receive the 'Niners 2nd round pick (59th overall) and both of their third round picks (70th and 74th overall), which would give New England an unprecedented number of picks in the top 100, as detailed below:

1st round, 23rd overall (From Los Angeles Rams in Cooks trade)
1st round, 31st overall
2nd round, 43rd overall (From San Francisco in Garoppolo trade)
2nd round, 59th overall (Proposed Gronk trade)
2nd round, 63rd overall
3rd round, 70th overall (Proposed Gronk trade)
3rd round, 74th overall (Proposed Gronk trade)
3rd round, 95th overall

Of course, all of that assuming that Belichick is looking to deal Gronkowski at all - but the Dark Master cannot be happy with the All Pro's constant jabs. But instead of dealing him, he could make Gronkowski honor his contract or risk having the league become involved in a nasty settlement that would involve signing bonuses and guaranteed money.

Another scenario could see Belichick renegotiating his contract to give Gronkowski a significant raise for 2018, gambling on his health and attitude and putting off moving him until the start of the 2019 league year., which makes sense financially, as dealing him next offseason would net the Patriots $8 million in cap relief where dealing him this offseason would gain them just $2.5 million, yet with Gronkowski turning thirty years old before camp opens, it may affect his trade value on the market.

But waiting a year is a gamble with his injury history and recent attitude, and New England could end up with nothing.

That brings up the possibility of a trade deadline deal, but there are so many variables that have to be factored in with such a scenario - such as teams being tight end-needy, be it due to injury or simply needing that one player to put them over the top down the stretch, and if the Patriots are right in the middle of another title run themselves - that it would be foolish to even consider them at present.

In the end, New England is better off with a happy and motivated Gronkowski on their roster, but it also must be remembered that the Patriots won seven division titles, went to five AFC Championship games and four Super Bowls - winning three - in the first decade of Belichick's reign before Gronkowski came on scene - doing so with stout defenses and brutish running games...

...and won a Super Bowl in 2016 with him sidelined for the season. though they have been to the AFC Championship game every season he has been in Foxborough except his rookie year, and have advanced to the Super Bowl a total of four times in his eight seasons on the roster.

The point being that as long as Belichick is haunting the sidelines, the Patriots will find ways to win football games no matter the personnel, and are absolutely stacked with pass catchers, have the greatest quarterback of all time throwing to them, and are backed up by an intriguing committee of running backs, so it's not like there is nothing for Belichick to work with if Gronkowski ends up leaving.

Because, this is Bill Belichick's team, his design, his scheme, his way - and if that has Gronkowski down in the dumps, Belichick is not without options...





Saturday, April 21, 2018

The Patriot Way Begins And Ends With Belichick - Part 2: The Gold Standard

"Because Belichick is unyielding, unapologetic and territorial, there are many who don't care for him. he is gruff with the media, and fans of other teams use disparaging remarks to describe their loathing of him, but until recently, one really didn't hear players - either his or on another team - speak of him with anything but respect - but have the times and the game changed so much that Belichick's way of doing things becoming archaic and too grounded in today's NFL?" - Foxborough Free Press, April 18, 2018
The Patriot Way has been a paradigm for so long that when it's dynastic run began, Bill Clinton still ran things in the White House, Sony had just introduced the PlayStation 2 and the computer worm known as the Love Bug had just infected millions of personal computers.

A prototype of efficiency, the discipline and conditioning-based philosophy introduced by Bill Belichick has served as the model by which all other franchises are compared and has outlasted two different two-term presidential administrations, two incarnations of the PlayStation and countless computer viruses...

...notching seventeen straight winning seasons, which produced fifteen AFC Division titles, a dozen conference championship appearances, eight Super Bowl appearances and five Lombardi trophies in his eighteen years at the helm - so much success with such an idiosyncratic bent that to mess with his formula is not only potentially fatal to the franchise, but akin to sabotage, and to denounce it, sacrilege.

Yet here we are, dealing with the fallout over both, the common thread being Belichick's defiant silence.

*********************************

The thing about the way Belichick does things is that it will never be out of style, it will never be archaic and it can never be too grounded - because fundamentals are the base of what any sport is built upon.

The game has changed, and it changes every year as the league struggles to define the rulebook - but part of being fundamentally sound is to give all due diligence to the rule book, to the play book and to film study - taking to coaching and being mentally prepared to face your foe. That will never change, yet it seems at times that Belichick is the only coach who lives and breathes the rudimentary approach...

...which has been the cornerstone of the Patriots' dynasty from the start. Belichick can be a harsh taskmaster, what with his conditioning runs during the season and nit-picking on everyone, his all-inclusive bitch sessions the stuff of legend, but now a source of contempt from at least one high-profile player.

Tight end Rob Gronkowski is apparently unhappy and considering retirement, claiming that football wasn't fun for him last season, the source of his displeasure coming in the form of Belichick calling him out in a team meeting for refusing to follow his prescribed conditioning regimen in favor of  quarterback Tom Brady's holistic approach with Alex Guerrero.

Gronkowski claims that he's never been as pliable as he was last season, referring to a catch he made against the Steelers, going at full sprint across the face of the coverage and bending to grab a low ball right off of his shoetops - and he credits the TB12 method, inclusive of conditioning sessions with Guerrero, for his new-found elasticity.

Which is fine. A loose and pliable Gronkowski is even more dangerous than the old version that was already the best, most menacing and most complete tight end in the game - but what has Belichick's feathers ruffled is that Gronkowski has reportedly refused to do squats, which is the traditional manner in which an athlete increases flexibility in his lower body - his defiance apparently prompting Belichick to single him out in the aforementioned meeting...

...as well as Belichick throwing a ban on Guerrero's presence on the sidelines and the team plane. Why? As reported by several sources, it was because Guerrero advised Gronkowski to refuse that part of the team-mandated conditioning regimen.

The story goes much deeper than that, and has been regurgitated by the media, ad nauseum, but none of that really matters in the grand scheme of things. What does matter is that Belichick is in charge, and his methods have produced more championships - divisional, conference and world - in a span that defies history, and he has done so with a strictly regimented routine and by employing low-priced role players to fill in gaps where the Patriots didn't have a permanent solution.

The conditioning routine has never been a cause for joy among the players, nor has the method in which Belichick determines a player's value to the team in free agency in terms of dollars where, instead of the team making an over-the-top contract offer to retain a player, Belichick simply gauges his need with what the players are offered on the open market, and then will decide whether to make a counter-offer.

The ploy has worked with much success throughout Belichick's tenure, yet has been met with considerable scrutiny this offseason, as the market priced a handful of regular contributors out of Belichick's range.

Running back Dion Lewis has defected and told the media in Tennessee that no one ever gave him a chance to prove what he could do on the football field, completely disregarding that Belichick was the one who stuck with him through his lengthy injury history before giving him the opportunity to display his considerable wares last season - a performance which earned him a tidy sum in free agency...

...while cornerback Malcolm Butler took the chip on his shoulder and hauled ass out of Foxborough to join Lewis in Tennessee, and also former Patriot Logan Ryan to help form a solid secondary for the Titans, signing a contract comperable to the one that Belichick signed Stephon Gilmore to last offseason, which miffed Butler and placed that chip squarely on his shoulder.

As mentioned in the first part of this series, wide receiver Danny Amendola opted to take his talents to South Beach for a exorbitant amount of money for a guy on the wrong side of 30 years old, and left tackle Nate Solder accepted a contract to make him the highest paid offensive lineman in the league to move to New York and play for the Giants.

The worst of the mutinous scenarios is still upcoming, citing a report that quarterback Tom Brady, who said he wanted to play until he was 45 in 2021, has reportedly been mulling retirement after this upcoming season which, if true, would be a debilitating strike on the franchise - because were this known last November, the team certainly would not have traded starter-ready backup Jimmy Garoppolo to San Francisco.

That, in itself, is a matter of some subterfuge theories, the most chronic being that team owner Bob Kraft ordered the trade. We may never know the true story of how it all came to be, but be assured that Brady's relationship with Kraft, who has often referred to Brady as "family", had something to do with it.

Brady revealed his true time line in the last episode of his self-serving Tom versus Time Facebook miniseries, which was recorded last August. In that last piece, he was sitting beside Gisele and stated that he wanted to play in two more Super Bowls and then he would retire, and he's already played in one since that statement - last February's unfortunate loss to the Eagles - and if he stays true to what he said in the miniseries, he could be finished playing after this season.

But what is. is. No sense in crying over melted avocado ice cream, but one must be curious as to whether Brady has communicated his intentions for beyond 2018 with management, but has reportedly been in talks with team management about a new contract - which may or may not sway them to approach next week's draft with the anxiety related to absolutely having to get Brady's successor, no matter who that  might be, and no matter what it may cost in draft capital.

Regardless of Brady's plans, Belichick cannot get this wrong. If he has a player that he's absolutely stuck on and is as sure as can be about the talent level and fit, then he has to pull the trigger. He doesn't have any choice, because Garoppolo is already gone, and every team in the league knows it, which dissolves any leverage the Patriots might have had in negotiations to move up in the draft if need be.

And, yes. This is what Belichick is going through this offseason, from Gronkowski's ambiguity and Brady's arrogance to Robert Kraft's meddling and fans questioning his every move, this may prove to be Belichick's most challenging offseason yet, and training camp is still three months off.

We have seen how the players respond to Belichick after a Super Bowl win, and how Belichick responds to them. The season is over, the goal is accomplished and everyone is hugging and laughing and crying tears of joy - players hugging Belichick and telling him that they love him in the moment of unbridled euphoria...

...and in his moment to absorb the accolades of the media and of fans everywhere, he digresses to explain to the world that the title was all about his players, about all of the hard work they have put in, all of the blood, the sweat and tears - the pain and the exhaustion, they endured it all to reach the pinnacle of their profession.

Belichick deflects praise and absorbs criticism in public, all in the attempt to edify his players, to acknowledge their dedication and hard work, and to keep their morale steady in the midst of good time and bad, but in the privacy of team meetings will tear them down to be able to build them back up. It's a time-proven recipe for molding players into champions and boys into men, yet some players don't appreciate the effort he puts into making them better.

The Patriots are better off without such players, but they will never be better off without Belichick roaming the sidelines - because like it or not, Belichick is the embodiment of the Patriot Way, something that he has struggled to maintain lately, with salvos being fired from team management and select players.

But the local media has stood behind the Dark Master for the most part, some going so far as to hammer on Gronkowski and, more recently, hammer on Brady for being an instigator - being careful to not lend much credence to the rants of the former players, present players, nor the national media that is making way too big a deal over it without understanding the dynamic involved.

The "Patriot Way" means different things to different people, but former quarterback Drew Bledsoe perhaps defined it best when he said,  "simply, no one player or group of players is bigger than the team or the organization." going on to to call himself  "A prime example" of the definition - he also mentioned that he may have been "Example A", but that honor actually goes to Bernie Kosar...

...a popular signal caller and the face of the Cleveland Browns, Kosar was released midway through the 1993 season in favor of Belichick favorite Vinny Testeverde, and faced severe backlash from the media, the fans, and many of the players - so it's not as if Belichick has never been in this position before.

Belichick carries the same personnel philosophy now as he did then, and has never wavered from it - the only difference is that in Cleveland he took over a crappy team that needed an urgent rebuild just a season removed from playing for the conference title, while in New England he took over a middling team that had underachieved under Pete Carroll and had talent and depth everywhere.

But the main difference was that in Cleveland he had to deal with a half-crazy, meddling and impatient owner in Art Modell while in Foxborough, he worked for an owner who had learned from his failures in handling affairs with Bill Parcells and Carroll poorly, and in response gave total control over personnel to Belichick, and he built it into a juggernaut that stands as the gold standard today.

That gold standard has taken a few hits to it's position recently, but so long as Belichick is around, the Patriot Way will exist.

"While (the way they do business) is awfully painful when you're living it, the Patriots have had success by bringing in younger players and developing them so they are able to reload, as opposed to going through a down cycle like most teams." Bledsoe said, "so if you play for the Patriots - and, honestly, it doesn't matter if you're Tom Brady - you're there as long as you are useful."

Cold? Callous? Calculating? You bet. But there is no getting around the fact that Belichick is, in his heart of hearts, a player's coach. While they are in Foxborough, he has a detailed plan to make each man a better player. Many have come to Foxborough with dreams of winning, and many have left with substantial hardware to show for their time...

...as 248 players have earned world championship rings under Belichick's guidance. Think about that for a second - even with twenty-two players earning three rings during the three-in-four-years run at the start of the dynasty (plus 18 more who won two) and twenty-two more earning two rings in the latest two-in-three-years run, that makes 186 role players who have rotated in and out of the Patriots' roster that have won Super Bowl rings.

Just for the sake of comparison, the next closest is the Pittsburgh Steelers, for who just 107 players have won rings in the same time span.

You don't win as much as New England has by having a system that doesn't work. Sure, teams get lucky sometimes and win titles despite the deficiencies in their organization, but Belichick's Patriot way has stood the test of time - and the man deserves better than what team management, a few select players and many fans have been laying on him.

The Patriot Way began with Belichick, and it will end with Belichick - not Kraft, and not Brady - though the Dark Master is attempting to hand it off to offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and though he showed he has a different on-field philosophy in his disastrous reign in Denver, hopefully he's learned enough in his time under Belichick to keep the dynasty rolling long after Bob Kraft, Tom Brady and Belichick have retired.

But one thing is for certain: we will never see a better coach than Belichick in our lifetimes, and we should all consider it an honor to have witnessed it.

Wednesday, April 18, 2018

Patriot Way Begins And Ends With Belichick - Part 1: Unyielding, Unapologetic And Territorial

When introducing Bill Belichick as the keynote speaker at a coaches clinic last April, Ohio State University coach Urban Meyer shared a coaching lessons he learned from the New England Patriots' head ball coach Bill Belichick over the years.

Meyer stated that he asked Belichick how it is that he takes players who are seemingly under the radar, players that no one has ever heard of, and turns them into clutch players on the biggest stages and in the biggest moments that the sport has to offer, and the response caught him off-guard:

"At this point in my career, I want to coach guys I like." Meyer iterated, "I want to coach guys I want to be around, and that's it. I'm not going to coach anybody else."

Add that little nugget into his penchant for using players until they no longer serve his purpose for them, multiply by performance then divide by salary cap space, and the sum is an oftentimes motley crew that has no business winning as many football games as they do - but they can, and do, because Belichick had plans for them even before they were on the team, and sometimes while just a Belichickian daydream.

Case in point: When the then-San Diego Chargers released a 30-year-old Rodney Harrison after the 2002 season, he was resigned to having to accept a mid-level contract somewhere, riding on the coattails of a couple of Pro Bowl seasons, and had already fielded offers from a couple of AFC West teams when Belichick called him.

"I saw you in warmups once, and saw you level a receiver." Harrison recollected, "I knew right then I wanted you to play for me."

Harrison was shocked that Belichick would remember a hit he had made in warm ups for a game. "Who else would remember that?" Harrison mused, "who else would even be watching a pre-game drill?" After they hung up, Harrison called his agent at once and said "I don't care what you have to do. I don't care how much money we have to leave on the table, I want to play for Bill Belichick."

There seems to be quite a few stories like that out there regarding Belichick, and likely why he is known to be a "Player's coach" - so why is it that lately there has been talk of players being unhappy or of them plain disliking him?

To be sure, there has been talk and rumors over the years about players hating Belichick and that the locker room has been divided - particularly when he released safety Lawyer Milloy soon after signing Harrison in 2003, and then again when he shipped Richard Seymour off to Oakland in exchange for first and second round draft picks...

...but if there were any hard feelings from the players towards Belichick, those quickly disappeared in the euphoria of unprecedented success and the blinding glow of big silver trophies.

Which is something that former Patriots' wide receiver Danny Amendola alluded to in an interview with ESPN.com's Mike Reiss last week, when he talked about what it was like to play for Belichick over the years:

"It's not easy for sure. He's an asshole sometimes." Amendola said, "There were a lot of things I didn't like about playing for him, but I must say, the things I didn't like were all in regards to getting the team better, and I respected him. I didn't like practicing in the snow, I didn't like practicing in the rain, but that was going to make us a better football team and that was going to make me a better football player."

For sure, you will hear that sort of thing from many of the players that Belichick has coached through the years in Foxborough, as well as Amendola's final remark on the subject, when he said that Belichick would be the first to admit that he wasn't easy to play for, but that the silver lining was that they were winning rings.

And that's the rub. Amendola knew the score and he stayed in New England by his willingness to take less and less in salary, but reaped the reward with five consecutive appearances in the AFC Championship game and three Super Bowl appearances, earning two rings and the unofficial moniker of Danny "Playoff" Amendola bestowed upon him by tight end Rob Gronkowski for being absolutely clutch in the biggest of moments.

But now Amendola is in Miami, despite not knowing for sure who's going to be throwing passes his way as the Dolphins' quarterback situation is very much fluid at present, because he wisely cashed in when a desperate Miami ownership made him a contract offer that New England was powerless to match, even if they wanted to...

It was a blow to the Patriots' combined consciousness, as the candid Amendola reflected the true grit that has embodied the intestinal fortitude of the team, but it also demonstrates the intense desperation of the Patriots' division rivals who have been trying to catch New England for years, but have nothing but grief to show for their standard-brand efforts to draft and develop players, and are now taking to weakening them by offering their players outrageous contracts.

Amendola was one of 34 players on the Patriots final 2017 roster that had previous Super Bowl experience, and one of 22 players who had been to the big game at least twice - why, Gronkowski has been to seven straight conference championship games and has been on the roster for four Super Bowls - as have any players who have been with the team since 2011.

Which brings up an interesting point. It has been said that New England is a place where veterans who have made their money in football come to realize their dreams of winning championships, but what if that scenario were reversed and tenured veterans who have won championships with the Patriots who have tired of Belichick's mean uncle act and want to go play someplace fun, and for many dollars?

For sure, that has been a consideration for many former Patriots, including many starters this offseason, all of whom conceded that Belichick is tough to play for, but have a begrudging respect for the Dark Master, and even some levity from left tackle Nate Solder who left for the Giants and a huge contract, then taking out a full page ad in a Boston daily to thank the New England fans...

...then turned around and offered that Belichick does have a heart of gold when it came to softening up the rules for Solder when his son became seriously ill with a rare form of kidney cancer, which goes to figure that if he did so for Solder, then there must be other occurrences out there of Belichick showing a soft side.

That's not a very scientific way of looking at things, but football isn't science. If it were, however, you can bet that Belichick would be the "Mona Lisa Vito" of football...

If you ask Harrison, Belichick's "mean Uncle" brand of football keeps players humble and focused. He likes to tell a story about the Patriots' 16-0 season, when Belichick would use Monday critique sessions to call out players for mistakes, even though they were blowing other teams out.

"I loved it." Harrison recalls, "He just wouldn't let us have a let down. He'd be saying, 'Brady you can't hit a 260 pound tight end on that play, that's terrible' and, 'Do you guys on defense think you can stop somebody for once?' I mean, he'd just light us up. We're winning games by 30 and he's just killing us."

"I'll tell you what separates him from every other coach - he always has a short-term plan and a long-term plan - and he's always working both at the same time."

His goal of his short-term plan is the same each and every season, and that's to win the Super Bowl - and he's reached the big game enough times to consider any year in which he doesn't win a title as a resolute failure, while is long-term plan is also an annual effort to build his roster with a solid mixture of veteran core players, mid-level role players and young developmental players.

It's a recipe for success unlike what the league has ever seen before, and lot of it has to do with Brady's sustained excellence within the system, a system that suffers more purposeful attrition than any other team in football, because Belichick uses those mid-level players to achieve his short-term goals, while his core veterans and developmental players work in tandem to ensure that the future talent pool is maintained.

Belichick is unyielding, unapologetic and territorial. He wants things done the way he wants things done - and the way he wants things speaks to the old school, focusing on fundamentals and conditioning because if you are fundamentally sound in your approach and are in good training shape, the rest of your job will follow - so is it any wonder that what Belichick gets most upset about is a breakdown in either?

He is not always right, but you will never hear him apologize. The closest one will ever come to hearing a concession or confession from Belichick is when he breaks out his standard script and offers that "Players win games and coaches lose them." - even in the shadow of his most famous of gaffes, he shows no remorse.

After the 2009 pre-Thanksgiving loss to the Indianapolis Colts in which Belichick's decision to go for a fourth down and two from his own 28 yard line went awry, he told his dejected players in the locker room, "It didn't work out, and I'm not going to apologize to anyone for being aggressive and trying to win. That's what we're here for."

Because Belichick is unyielding, unapologetic and territorial, there are many who don't care for him. he is gruff with the media, and fans of other teams use disparaging remarks to describe their loathing of him, but until recently, one really didn't hear players - either his or on another team - speak of him with anything but respect - but have the times and the game changed so much that Belichick's way of doing things becoming archaic and too grounded in today's NFL?

Tomorrow - Part 2: The Gold Standard

Thursday, April 5, 2018

Cooks To Rams Deal A Lesson in "Belichickonomics"

When the New England Patriots dealt wide receiver Brandon Cooks to the Los Angeles Rams on Tuesday afternoon, it demonstrated the difference between the collective building of a winning culture and the chaos ingrained in a losing one.

The Belichick Temp Agency was again up front and center on Tuesday as the crafty defacto general manager of the Patriots swung a deal to dump the speedster and his $8.46 million cap hit on the Rams after just one season with New England. As the deal is finalized, the Patriots will have a little over $15 million in cap space, while the Rams are going to have to cut $3 million off of their current cap to fit Cooks into the fold.

Perhaps the Rams are taking a page out of Belichickian philosophy so far as acquiring temporary players as one year rentals, but their devil-may-care approach and flamboyant disregard for their long-term cap success is sure to land them on the bread lines as soon as 2019, while Belichick's fiscally temperate approach will ensure, once again, that his Patriots will trudge along like a rag-tag band of freedom fighters.

Such are the core beliefs of "Belichickonomics":

1. The market will set the price for free agents, and that a player's worth is determined not solely in what the player has accomplished in the past, but mostly in what age and experience tells us he will accomplish in the future;

Sometimes this backfires, mostly because teams like the Rams overpay and drive up the price tag for other like-free agents. Four of Belichick's now-former charges have gone on to where the turf is greener - cash wise - and all were over-paid. Left Tackle Nate Solder signed a record deal with the Giants, cornerback Malcolm Butler and running back Dion Lewis got huge deals from the Titans and Miami poached wide receiver Danny Amendola on a contract that must have his head still swimming.

In accordance with Belinomics, the market set their price tags so high that there was no way he was going to strap his salary cap to appease their financial demands. Such is the nature of free agency, though there are plenty of examples of players whom Belichick insisted try the open market to set their value, only to return with a solid but financially feasible offers - the latest of which includes Dont'a Hightower.

Some (many) call him cheap and/or heartless when it comes to retaining players, but he has a salary cap to attend to and he's not going to risk cap stability and the resultant rotational depth chart - nor should he. If the market sets a value on a player, he will come as close as he can without disrupting the cap balance. If it doesn't work, there's always:

2. Focus on players who have either been miscast or misused or under-utilized in their current employs, sign them at a salary commensurate with their tenured status and put them in position to bring out the best in their skill set - many times that turns into a win-win scenario for both the player and the team;

Chances are, players who have been miscast or misused or under-utilized are not on the minds of the suckers who dive into the free agent pool head-first, spending obscene amounts of money on the big name that will get their fan bases fired up and put butts in the stadium seats. Hey, NFL head coaches double as public relations mavens sometimes...

But once the initial feeding frenzy has subsided, piranhas like Belichick show up and make five or six or seven smaller-scale moves in a row, in the interim keeping the fan base in an absolute mad dog froth with their inactivity. These are the guys that find roles on the team that ensure two things: first that they will toil in relative anonymity unless they do something really good or something really bad and second, they will contribute enough for every team in the league to have good tape on them.

Rex Burkhead is an example, as are Marquis Flowers, Lawrence Guy, and Eric Lee - and it seems that Belichick always seems to land a handful of former 1st round draft picks in the haul, often for little or nothing because their former team had given up on them - a volatile lot for sure, as they are often boom-or-bust prospects, but Belichick has had enough success with them to keep doing it...

...and now oft-injured tight end Troy Niklas can be added to the mix, with an opportunity to thrive in a new system that uses tight ends differently than most.

3. The rookie salary cap is our friend. It is far less expensive to stock players through the draft and develop them in-house than to pay top free agents. The ones that perform well and are team-first both on the field and within the salary cap form the base core of the team - the others get washed out through attrition.

Of the 72 players currently on the roster, exactly half of them are Belichick draft picks and an additional dozen were originally undrafted rookie free agents picked up after the draft by the Dark Master - and a new class is on it's way with probably eight of them either making the team or the practice squad.

Belichick takes a lot of flack for his draft picks at times, and there probably is some truth to him missing in certain spots, especially with wide receivers, as his disastrous picks in the 2013 draft will attest - even though that same draft is considered successful on the defensive side of the ball. With that in mind, wide receiver is a position that Belichick usually addresses via trade and free agency...

...even so, 13 of the Patriots projected 22 starters are original Patriots' draft picks, two were acquired via trade and the rest were obtained in free agency, lending credence to the notion that Belichick does draft well, but many times will draft with a year or two of development in mind.

In trading Cooks, the Patriots add to their stockpile of top-end draft capital, which is important since the receiving corps and secondary are stocked with players either approaching or over the age of 30, and the quarterback position so aged that when Brady sliced his hand in practice before the AFC Championship game last January, dust came flying out instead of blood.

In contrast to Belichickonomics, the Rams are certainly saying all the right things, including some talk of working on a long-term extension for Cooks, but in the end, that might just be lip service for their fans, who apparently can't see the forest for the trees.

At the end of the 2018 season, Los Angeles will have four major free agent issues to address in addition to Cooks - those being for defensive tackles Aaron Donald and Nadamukong Suh, cornerback Marcus Peters and running back Todd Gurley - along with two more Pro Bowl quality players entering their contract years in defensive end Michael Brockers and cornerback Aqib Talib.

In using the franchise tag numbers for this season, which factors in the top five salaries for each position, Cooks could be in line for $16 million per year, Donald and Suh for $14 million a piece, Peters in the range of $15 million and Gurley, whose number will likely depend on what the Steelers end up giving Le'Veon Bell, should see $15 million at the least...

...which would add up to a top-heavy $74 million just for those five - a full 42% of their total cap space, with Brockers in line for $17 million if extended.

New England, on the other hand, by dumping Cooks has pared down their list of potential free agents to kicker Stephen Gostkowski, punter Ryan Allen, defensive end Trey Flowers, defensive tackles Malcom Brown and Danny Shelton, right guard Shaq Mason and wide receiver Chris Hogan - with Flowers really the only player who could command north of $8 million per year.

Gostkowski and Allen are most likely looking at $4 million and $3 million, respectively, Mason should net around $5 million and Hogan - who is on the wrong side of thirty - probably won't see much over what he's making now, which is close to $4 million. Brown and Shelton are both subject to fifth year options, which would pay them around $6 million each.

My math tells me that even if Flowers does agree to $8 million per season, that's just $36 million in cap space eaten up by seven players, or just 20% of the Patriots' cap space - and that doesn't count whatever the Patriots are going to roll over into 2019, which could be significant given that tight end Dwayne Allen and running back Mike Gillislee are likely to hit the waiver wire at some point this summer, freeing up another $8 million....

...the kicker being that the Patriots have loaded up on prime draft capital for which can be signed with a cap hit barely registering on the seismograph.

But now, what does Belichick do with his fortune in draft capital?

That remains to be seen, but with Cooks being dealt combined with the minor blip signings of depth players in subsequent moves, it appears that Belichick is done with his free agency splash, and is preparing for the draft.