Tuesday, April 24, 2018

Belichick Has Leverage, Many Options In Dealing With Gronkowski

Is Rob Gronkowski's time in New England coming to an end?

It's a rhetorical question, of course, because everyone has their own opinion on the matter - but what is there to make of his uber-childish behavior of late, almost as if he is daring the Patriots to trade him? And considering that the truth of the matter is that at this point, neither the pros nor the cons outweigh each other when it comes shipping him off to become someone else's issue?

The pros? Gronkowski will be twenty-nine years old next month and already has eight years of wear and tear on his scar-laced body - not to mention that the Patriots are probably tiring of his entitled, look-at-me attention grab. The cons? He is easily the best and most complete tight end in the league and is a game-changer.

Case in point: In games this past season when the Patriots were slow out of the gate and recorded sluggish first halfs, the adjustment at halftime always seemed to be finding ways to get the ball to Gronkowski, who would literally carry the offense on his back for entire drives.

In other words, when all seems lost because nothing else is working, the Patriots flip the Gronk switch.

He knows how valuable he is, and we all know what a loony, fun-loving guy he is - and Patriots' fans have appreciated the marriage of the two for as long as he's been in Foxborough. We gasp in marvel when he drags defenders down the field, we hold our breath every time he hits the turf for fear he won't get back up. We delight in his touchdown celebrations and subsequent "Earthquake" spikes that bound into the air higher than a Ryan Allen punt...

...there really hasn't been any occasion for Patriots' fans to be anything other than adoring of the happy-go-lucky man-child, until his demeanor turned to petulance, and now fans are turning on him in droves.

Admittedly, fans should be a little more patient with his immoderate act this offseason, but we have never seen this side of Gronkowski, the side that seems to scream entitlement during a period in the nation's history when it seems everyone feels entitled to something.

Politics aside - or perhaps on center stage, depending on your level of involvement and/or hysteria - it seems time to place a value on Gronkowski, as it pertains to his past performance and future expectations as gauged against the potential draft capital he could bring to the team if dealt away.

To that end, many are commenting on social media that the Patriots should expect a high first-round draft pick if they put Gronkowski up for bid, but given that he's tormented the Patriots with ambiguity and talk of retirement - not to mention his lengthy list of medical issues - the expectations of the fan base should be tempered a bit...

...while also remembering that Belichick's wheelhouse where he finds he best values is on the second day of the draft, so asking for multiple second day draft picks is sure to empower Belichick and make more willing whomever bids on Gronkowski to actually pull the trigger.

Madness, all of it - but not so far outside the realm of possibility that it can't be discussed with some decorum among polite people

That said, and assuming Belcihick has tired of Gronk's spoiled sophomoric antics, there are numerous teams that would be willing to trim their day two draft capital in order to obtain such game-changing talent. The Cleveland Browns own two first round picks and three second rounders, so one could envision them swapping one of the second rounders (Probably number sixty-four overall) and a fourth - and there's also the Indianapolis Colts who could easily let go of one of the their seconds and their third rounder for such a talent...

...or the Dallas Cowboys could be in the market with Jason Whitten nearing the end - but for the purposes of this tome we shall envision Bill Belichick making a deal with the San Francisco 49ers to send Gronkowski to be reunited with quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, for whom the 'Niners sent a metaphoric bag of peanuts to New England at last season's trade deadline, so they may be willing to let go of a little more in compensation.

However, it is unlikely that the 49ers would part with their first round draft pick, number nine overall, so in our scenario, the Patriots could receive the 'Niners 2nd round pick (59th overall) and both of their third round picks (70th and 74th overall), which would give New England an unprecedented number of picks in the top 100, as detailed below:

1st round, 23rd overall (From Los Angeles Rams in Cooks trade)
1st round, 31st overall
2nd round, 43rd overall (From San Francisco in Garoppolo trade)
2nd round, 59th overall (Proposed Gronk trade)
2nd round, 63rd overall
3rd round, 70th overall (Proposed Gronk trade)
3rd round, 74th overall (Proposed Gronk trade)
3rd round, 95th overall

Of course, all of that assuming that Belichick is looking to deal Gronkowski at all - but the Dark Master cannot be happy with the All Pro's constant jabs. But instead of dealing him, he could make Gronkowski honor his contract or risk having the league become involved in a nasty settlement that would involve signing bonuses and guaranteed money.

Another scenario could see Belichick renegotiating his contract to give Gronkowski a significant raise for 2018, gambling on his health and attitude and putting off moving him until the start of the 2019 league year., which makes sense financially, as dealing him next offseason would net the Patriots $8 million in cap relief where dealing him this offseason would gain them just $2.5 million, yet with Gronkowski turning thirty years old before camp opens, it may affect his trade value on the market.

But waiting a year is a gamble with his injury history and recent attitude, and New England could end up with nothing.

That brings up the possibility of a trade deadline deal, but there are so many variables that have to be factored in with such a scenario - such as teams being tight end-needy, be it due to injury or simply needing that one player to put them over the top down the stretch, and if the Patriots are right in the middle of another title run themselves - that it would be foolish to even consider them at present.

In the end, New England is better off with a happy and motivated Gronkowski on their roster, but it also must be remembered that the Patriots won seven division titles, went to five AFC Championship games and four Super Bowls - winning three - in the first decade of Belichick's reign before Gronkowski came on scene - doing so with stout defenses and brutish running games...

...and won a Super Bowl in 2016 with him sidelined for the season. though they have been to the AFC Championship game every season he has been in Foxborough except his rookie year, and have advanced to the Super Bowl a total of four times in his eight seasons on the roster.

The point being that as long as Belichick is haunting the sidelines, the Patriots will find ways to win football games no matter the personnel, and are absolutely stacked with pass catchers, have the greatest quarterback of all time throwing to them, and are backed up by an intriguing committee of running backs, so it's not like there is nothing for Belichick to work with if Gronkowski ends up leaving.

Because, this is Bill Belichick's team, his design, his scheme, his way - and if that has Gronkowski down in the dumps, Belichick is not without options...





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