Which means rookie, which means that the New England Patriots should be looking for a quarterback in this year's draft to develop into Tom Brady's replacement, whenever the greatest quarterback to ever play the game decides to appease his wife and at the same time bow to Father Time in making a grand exit from professional football.
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| Toledo's Logan Woodside |
When that will be is a topic of much speculation and occasional rude dissension among fans and media but one thing is for certain: he should announce his retirement at the very moment he retires, because if he announces it ahead of time like baseball players do, the fans at the homefields of teams he's dominated over the years are apt to be jeerful, at the very least.
Remember when David Ortiz announced his retirement from the Red Sox? Every town the Sox traveled to, the host ownership showered him with gifts ranging from cigars from the Astros, BBQ sauce from the Royals, peanut butter from the Twins and custom made cowboy boots from the Rangers.
So what could Brady expect from his hosts if he announced his retirement at the start of the 2018 season?
Oh, they'll shower him with gifts, alright. He could count on vibrating sex toys in Buffalo, size "D" batteries in New York and spoiled gas station sushi in Miami, all thrown from the upper deck and as close to the Greatest of all time as they can get - all in remembrance of how many times he ripped their hearts out over the years.
He'd have to leave his helmet on for sure, because outside of New England, his legacy is not one of respect, even begrudgingly. It will be a source of celebration for those fans, and celebrations like that have a way of getting out of hand.
Brady will be 41 years old when the season starts, and though he's stated more than once that he wants to play until he's 45, the smart money has him out of here a couple of years sooner than that, simply because he's got little left to prove to anyone - nothing to prove, actually - and he's said in his Tom vs. Time videos that he wanted to play in two more Super Bowls...
...but he announced that last August and has since played in a Super Bowl which, if my elementary math is correct, means that one more appearance in the big game, and Brady is lounging on a nude beach in Italy - or whatever else might float his boat.
So Patriots' general manager Bill Belichick has a monumental task in front of him, selecting a college quarterback who is closer to being an NFL starter than not, and whom they can develop quickly - it's not an ideal scenario for sure, but the future of the Patriots' dynasty rides on the decision.
But what kind of qualifications should a potentially Patriots' quarterback possess?
That particular skill set is as ambiguous as Belichick is in press conferences, for one reason: Belichick is the master at assimilating a player's skill set into his collective and adjusting his philosophy to put said player into a position to best succeed. That said, there are limitations to his square-peg-in-a-round-hole policy, as his offensive philosophy is so ingrained that he's not going to stray very far from it just to select a quarterback.
The following is a short list of traits that a quarterback who plays in a concept-based, methodical, move-the-chains offense needs to be successful :
* has above average intelligence;
* has experience in a pro-style offense;
* is able to process quickly at the snap;
* go through his progressions while keeping his eyes tied to his feet;
* has good feel for pass rushers and doesn't get spooked by "phantom" pressure;
* is ambulatory enough to slide out of trouble without stepping into pass rush;
* has feel for the play action;
* possesses quick (snap) release;
* is able to drive balls into tight windows on short routes and on back-shoulder throws;
* is able to put touch on balls up the seam to reach his tight ends;
* is highly accurate
Keeping that in mind, and also that Belichick is unlikely to trade up to snag one of the "top rated" quarterbacks coming out of college, here are his options (click on player's name to watch highlight reel):
Baker Mayfield - Oklahoma - 6' 1", 215lbs
Projection: mid-to-late first round
A scheme-limited signal caller who checks many of the boxes that the Patriots require of their quarterbacks, with the exception of his college experience is tied almost strictly to the spread offense, and it is unknown how he will react under center and if he can sell the play action. That said, his accuracy is other-worldly when chased from the pocket, so opponents will likely game plan to keep him in the pocket and cut off his escape routes.
Keeping Mayfield in the pocket is not a sure avenue to success, however, unless teams can also make their pass rush big to take advantage of his lack of pocket height He is compared to Doug Flutie among many experts, and while there is a lot of his game that feeds into that, his true comparison should be Drew Brees.
Mayfield may be over-valued in the draft due to the high number of teams seeking quarterbacks, so his basement is probably in the early teens, and Belichick would have to move up quite a bit to draft him.
Overall fit: Good
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Lamar Jackson - Louisville - 6' 2", 200lbs
Projection: Late 1st, early 2nd rounds
Most commonly compared to Michael Vick due to his scrambling ability, speed and elusiveness in the open field and wrist-snapping delivery but the comparisons end there. Despite elite arm strength, will wrist balls instead of stepping into his throws, which causes underthrows on intermediate and deep attempts. Is most comfortable running the run-pass option offense, but has a lot of experience under center and his play action fake is flawless.
He's small for the amount of punishment he is apt to take, and is quick to pull the ball down and run before getting though his progressions. Overall, Jackson is an elite athlete with the legs to run all day long, but is a couple of years away from being able to lead a pro style offense. In the pros, he finds the right fit, or he becomes a gadget player.
Overall fit: Good
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Mason Rudolph - Oklahoma State - 6' 5", 235
Projection: second round
Rudolph is a pure pocket passer with a penchant for loading up the play action and going vertical for the big play - and that's a problem if the kid wants to play in Foxborough.
Belichick favors the grind-it-out, move-the-chains, ball control horizontal game that is based on quick outs and timing patterns, picking and choosing their spots to go down the field after lulling the defense to sleep. That's not Rudolph's style, and certainly not the out routes, particularly field-side outs, as he rarely gets turned to drive the ball to the sidelines, instead floating the ball.
Rudolph checks all the boxes so far as physical attributes, lets routes develop and makes his reads, but his arm strength is in question. That said, there was a question about Brady in that respect coming out of Michigan, and that turned out ok...
Overall Fit: Good
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Luke Falk - Washington State - 6' 4", 225lbs
Projection: late second, early third
All Patriots' fans need to know about Falk is that a full three-quarters of his throws in college went for less than 10 yards which, when added to his quick release, pocket poise, route progression and strong arm, makes him ideal for the move-the-chains attack.
He has a lot of Brady to his game, which goes to figure since that is who he has tried to emulate since he started playing football as a kid. Tall with a quick set up in the pocket and a built-in alarm system that activates his slide step when the rush gets near - he will go through his reads with his eyes tied to his feet then unload with a snap of the wrist, and may throw the best back shoulder fade and sideline accuracy in the class...so why late second/early third?
Simply, that he struggles against zone coverages at times and holds onto the ball too long, resulting in the 125 sacks he took in college. That's a lot of sacks and when combined with the shits he takes while releasing, there's a lot of wear on his body. That said, the quick read offense that Belichick prefers could be his best fit, especially with all of the possession-type receivers on the Patriots' roster.
Overall Fit: Very Good
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Mike White - Western Kentucky - 6' 4", 225lbs
Projection: late third, early fourth
One of the many passers in this draft that relies on a bazooka of an arm to fit the ball into windows in college that may or may not translate to the faster NFL game.
A high school pitcher who throws smoke and was named a Louisville Slugger All-American as a junior, he brings his fast ball to the pros and really does possess the velocity to hit tight windows, as well as a change-up that he can drop in a bucket when he goes vertical. His arm talent is undeniable and would be a shoe-in for the first round if his pocket awareness was any better at all.
Brady-esque in his size and posture in the pocket, he doesn't possess the sixth sense that Brady does in feeling pressure, has heavy feet and tends to panic when holding onto the ball for more than a second or two, mainly because he does not have the sixth sense. Is that coachable? If so, White is a perfect fit for what Belichick likes to do on offense.
Overall fit: Very Good
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Logan Woodside - Toledo - 6' 2", 200lbs
Projection: late third, early fourth
Smart. The most cerebral signal caller in the class with a football acumen that has no peer among his peers. Tough, accurate, throws receiver-friendly balls that lead them away from trouble and is as determined a cat as you'll ever see.
But his arm isn't a cannon like some of the others on this list. His seam work is excellent and anything between the hashmarks is destined to be caught as he can throw his receivers open and hit them in stride for good after-the-catch yardage. His only flaw appears to be how he labors to get the ball down the field along the sidelines.
It seems to take everything he has to throw those out patterns, and they still float a bit. Other than that, he's a solid gold find in the middle rounds.
Overall Fit: Very Good
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Kyle Lauletta - Richmond - 6' 3", 210lbs
Projection: late fourth, early fifth
The passer that local and national draft experts have had pegged for the Patriots since the start of the team-building process - and why not? He runs the play action, goes through progressions and uses the savvy of a veteran to move linebackers and safeties with his eyes as well as anyone in the class - in fact he is everything one could want for a Patriots' quarterback.
The issue is with arm strength. He struggles with anything more than 15-20 yards down the field to the point that he is forced into a high trajectory to get balls vertical, which delights safeties who can run under the throws and make plays easily - which shuts down the back of the field and allows teams to deploy single high safeties and bring more help up into the box.
Usually, when a prospect has a deficiency, it can be corrected with professional coaching, but it may not be possible to even mask the lack of arm strength and the limited route tree that he can reach accurately. If it is possible, this is the guy for New England.
Overall Fit: Good
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Nic Shimonek - Texas Tech - 6' 3" 225lbs
Projection: sixth round
Is it proper to refer to quarterbacking prospect as part-time? What I mean is that part of the time, he's as good a quarterback prospect as there is in this class - but the other part of the time, he looks like he should be playing on the freshman team.
Erratic? Inconsistent? yes, but can a professional coaching staff make him more of a steady signal caller and less of a wild card?
Blessed with perhaps the best arm in the class, Shimonek can make all of the NFL throws, and his deep outs arrive with mustard on them, even when on the move. Reads coverages well and steps into throws to fit them into the tightest of windows. He can unload the ball from several different angles, which is the problem.
When he has a clean pocket or escapes to the flat, he has a squared-shoulder release that looks NFL-ready, but when he has to slide in the pocket against pressure, his mechanics go into the toilet - not the best thing to see on a resume, but I'd be curious to see him after a year or two of professional coaching.
Overall Fit: Moderate
As you can see, according to our film study, the best prospects for the Patriots in this deep draft reside on the second day, which makes them outstanding value picks - and if Belichick can cure a couple of flaws with the prospect that he chooses, there is enough talent in the class to give hope to Patriots' fans that a downturn in the fortunes of their franchise is not necessarily a given...
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