Tuesday, April 3, 2018

Tight End Draft Class Not Deep, So Patriots Should Look For Value In Later Rounds

In 2010, the New England Patriots ushered in what was supposed to be the Next Big Thing in professional football.

In drafting Arizona's Rob Gronkowski in the second round and Florida's Aaron Hernandez in the fourth, the Patriots had all the makings of a tight end-centric offense that was sure to run roughshod over the National Football League foe a decade, perhaps even longer.

But after two-and-a-half seasons bordering on greatness and contract extensions for both that paid Gronkowski $9 million per season and Hernandez $7.5, the two-tight end attack that was on the verge of becoming a league paradigm melted into broken bones and dark malfeasance.
Central Michigan's Tyler Conklin

Obviously vestigial since that point, the Patriots have nevertheless been active in trying to regain some semblance of the two tight end attack, but with very limited results. Michael Hoomanawanui and Matthew Mulligan were mostly end-of-the-line, blocking types, Tim Wright was a wide receiver playing tight end and Scott Chandler was a major disappointment in the role.

The only tight end opposite a somewhat fragile Gronkowski to flourish in that role was Martellus Bennett in 2016, though he ended up being the tight end once a herniated disc ended Gronkowski's season midway through - playing through various injuries himself as New England simply had no other options at the position...

...which is perhaps some of the reason why the Patriots claimed Bennett off of waivers from Green Bay towards the end of last season, though he ended up on the IR after a couple of games.

Without a doubt, the Patriots are star-crossed when it comes to the tight end position, and 2018 is shaping up as potentially the worst season yet, as Gronkowski is toying with the team and the fans as he takes out his frustrations with a rigid Bill Belichick on his teammates and the fans by feigning retirement.

Gronkowski is under contract for two more seasons, but it goes to figure that even if he chooses not to retire at the age of 28, these are final two seasons that Gronkowski will call Foxborough home - so it makes sense for the Patriots to be looking to free agency for immediate depth at the position and to the draft for an eventual replacement.

But is the answer to the depth part of the equation already on the 90-man roster?

Stony Brook University alum Will Tye spent most of last season on the Patriots' practice squad after being released by the New York Jets, who picked him up last offseason after he was part of the New York Giants' final cutdowns. Similar in size to Hernandez, Tye has better straight-line speed and lateral movement - but on the down side, his run blocking is just as atrocious as the former Patriot.

Tye caught 90 balls for 859 yards and four touchdowns in two full seasons with the Giants, suggesting that despite his speed, Tye was used mainly as a safety valve in New York - and if he were to make the roster in New England, chances are he would be used the same way in Foxborough.

Dwayne Allen, on the other hand, is a tremendous blocker who can't get out of his own way in the pass pattern, while young Jacob Hollister offered little else besides being a moving target for highlight film collisions over the middle - add all of this together and the Patriots should be in the market for both depth and skilled youth.

In the past couple of days they have brought in Troy Niklas, late of the Arizona Cardinals, but he's been in the trainers' room more in two seasons than Gronkowski has in eight, and he left Foxborough without an offer - and there's really nothing left in free agency that either isn't on the wrong side of thirty or has some severe physical limitations.

That said, has tight end become a sudden area of high need for the Patriots? Probably so, but one won't find an elite combination tight end in the 2018 draft, so late on day two and early on  day three of the draft is where the Patriots would likely be looking for a surprise gem at the position.

That excludes the likes of Goedert, Gesicki and Andrews who are all one dimensional yet are at the  top of the draft class, which speaks to how limited the class is - but there are a few potential finds in the middle rounds - the best of them being Central Michigan's Tyler Conklin.

Conklin had a down year in 2017, statistically, due to a fracture in his foot in camp, but at 6' 3" tall and 245 pounds and with vice-like hands, he should be in the mix as a "move" tight end despite running poorly at the combine. He caught 35 balls for 504 yards in eight games and scored five times. Central Michigan had all kinds of quarterbacking problems in the past couple of seasons, but a look at his 2016 tape shows his potential.

A decent trap blocker on the edge in the running game makes him more draftable than some of the higher rated prospects, but he needs to learn how to use his body to shield defenders from the ball as a receiver, as he will allow linebackers and safeties to get inside to get a hand on the ball - which is all coaching - but once he gets his hands on a ball, chances are very good that he will haul it in.

Because of his broken foot last season, teams will be pressed to evaluate his durability, but his stock should remain stationary as a solid late-third, early-fourth round pick - just slightly better than North Carolina State's Jaylen Samuels, who isn't really even a tight end, but is listed as such because evaluators can't seem to put a label on the kid.

It isn't often that one sees a tight end listed at 5' 11" and 225 pounds, so scouts are telling Samuels that he will most likely be slotted as a running back in the pros, but his skill set screams "Utility player", for which the Patriots have a rich history of finding in the selection process.

He lined up all over the offense for the Wolfpack, seeing time at "move" tight end, H-back (which is what he really is), running back, slot receiver and lined up wide - and ended his career as NC State's all-time receptions leader, surpassing Jerricho Cotchery school record by catching 202 passes and averaging nearly 10 yards per and scoring 19 times...

...while as a runner, he averaged just over six yards per carry, gaining 1104 yards on just 180 carries, and scoring 28 rushing touchdowns while he was at it, and last season also assumed the goal line duties, making his yards per carry that much more impressive - and he also returned kicks for the 'Pack, averaging 20 yards per return.

Samuels is not as elusive as Dion Lewis is - very few runners actually are - but he compares favorably to Lewis in speed and toughness between the tackles, and has enough quickness to gain the edge as a runner and to carry the rock in a jailbreak screen scenario.

As mentioned, the 2018 draft class is not a very good one for tight ends, but it is excellent and deep in other areas where the Patriots are likely to be players - so it would be reasonable to expect that they would wait for value in the tight end class at the end of the second day and into the third day...



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