The biggest culprits were their inability to cover running backs curling into the flat and setting the edge in the running game - and while health coupled with free agency acquisitions would likely solve the latter, it's going to take spending some major draft capital in the 2018 selection process in late April to solve the former.
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| BYU's Warner is a hybrid OLB/SS, perfect for the Big Nickel |
The Patriots run a three-plus-one Big Nickel defensive alignment, meaning three down linemen plus one edge rushing outside linebacker up front, two run plugging linebackers and a strong safety on the second level, plus a normal complement of defensive backs in the secondary. The alignment requires three safeties: the strong safety reduces down into the box and acts as a weak side linebacker, who deals with running backs or tight ends in the pattern...
...while the free safety also reduces down into the double slot to help out with coverages. But the key is having a combination safety that can play the back end, solo. Called the "centerfielder", he should have sideline-to-sideline speed, take excellent angles and have great ball skills.
The Patriots have perhaps the best Big Nickel trio in the game because of strong safety Patrick Chung, free safety Devin McCourty and centerfielder Duron Harmon, but this season presents a unique set of challenges to the group as Chung and McCourty have topped the thirty-year barrier and Harmon decided to try and smuggle pot into a country that one would normally try to smuggle bud out of.
So Harmon will likely start the season on suspension, which means that either New England does something perverted like line up in a standard 4-3 or try out one of their many developmental safeties that they have stashed on the practice squad - so don't expect Belichick to pull a safety out of this draft, as he will just get by until Harmon returns.
Despite popular opinion to the contrary, the cornerback positions are well accounted for with Stephon Gilmore, Jason McCourty, Eric Rowe and Jonathan Jones, but the secondary, like the rest of the defense, fell victim to the lack of experienced depth in the linebacking corps - they weren't as horrible in the Super Bowl as the media would have one believe, but with Rowe entering his contract year and McCourty on the wrong side of thirty, if an elite talent falls to the Patriots in the second round, they would do well to add youth to their depth chart.
The defensive line has received an injection of talent, trading with Cleveland to bring in huge nose tackle Danny Shelton and plucking edge-setting defensive end Adrian Clayborn off the scrap pile in free agency - combined with the fact that red-shirt freshman Derek Rivers should be fully healed from his bout with a bum knee, both of the edges should be well accounted for, and no draft capital should be required.
On the other side of the ball, the offense lost two major playmakers in wide receiver Danny Amendola and running back Dion Lewis. Lewis is a singular talent who will be impossible to replace, though the Patriots have signed former Cincinnati Bengal Jeremy Hill and re-signed the versatile Rex Burkhead to join passing back James White to give them in three players what Lewis did himself...
...while the clutch Amendola's defection to the Dolphins should be mitigated somewhat by the return of Julian Edelman to health, though replacing his punt return ability has yet to be undertaken, aside from Belichick trading to Oakland for receiver Cordarrelle Patterson, whose main purpose in life is to return kicks and run gadget plays out of the backfield.
The line is nearly set, so long as former All Pro Marcus Cannon returns to form from an injury-marred 2017. The team re-signed tackle LaAdrian Waddle to assume the left tackle spot vacated by Nate Solder's defection, and the hope is that redshirt freshman Tony Garcia has fully recovered from a bout of blood clots in his lungs and is ready to develop behind Waddle.
But the elephant in the room to be addressed is finding a nearly ready for Prime Time quarterback to develop behind future Hall of Famer Tom Brady -and while the draft is loaded down with quality signal callers,Belichick is likely looking for someone who fits the mold of Brady as well as anyone could, but Brady will be nearly an impossible act to follow, so the pick has to be someone with broad shoulders and tons of confidence.
How does all of this translate in my little world? Check it out below:
Round 1 (31st overall)
Leighton Vander Esch, ILB, Boise State (6' 4", 255)
A do-it all interior linebacker, Vander Esch is as athletically gifted as any interior linebacker playing today, but with the length and instincts to become an every down force. In the running game, his core strength belies his size and length and in the passing game is a condor in the middle zone, forcing quarterbacks eyes to the perimeter.
His presence in the middle would allow for Belichick to vary his schemes from game-to-game and even play-to-play, and would also allow for Hightower to play more weak side in traditional sets and would take a lot of heat off of Van Noy, and allow him to concentrate on being the strong side force he was in college.
If Vander Esch is plucked off the board before the Patriots select, there is always Alabama's Rashaan Evans or they can dip into the late second round for Indiana's Tegray Scales - but make no mistake, Vander Esch is the complete package.
Round 2 (11th/43rd overall)
Isaiah Oliver, CB, Colorado (6' 0", 190)
A developmental corner that possesses a first round grade on many experts' draft boards due to enormous potential as a bump-and-run, lockdown corner. Excellent size and elite speed matched with an Albatross-like wingspan. There are holes in his game and could use a year behind Stephon Gilmore to learn the nuances of the pro game, but the sky is the limit.
Round 2 (31st/63rd overall)
Luke Falk, QB, Washington State (6' 4", 225)
A Brady disciple, Falk is the prototypical Patriots' pocket passer with the size to see over the big uglies up front and excellent lateral mobility and pocket awareness to slide out of danger.
Like the recently departed Jimmy Garoppolo, Falk's eyes are tied to his feet, which is evident in film study as he goes through his entire progression, moving his feet and keeping his arm cocked and ready to fire. Though some question his arm strength, his skill set allows him to throw against man coverage outside the numbers with plenty of zip.
He does have a bit Jacoby Brissett in him as well, as he tends to throw off his back foot to try to avoid the sack - sometimes into tight coverage, but overall he is a solid prospect, and the fact that he tries to emulate Brady in his game doesn't hurt.
Round 3 (31st/95th overall)
Fred Warner, LB/SS, Brigham Young (6' 3", 235)
Warner is a tweener - a coverage linebacker in college but perhaps a big-time strong safety in the pros, and in New England's Big Nickel alignment. In Foxborough, there isn't any difference between the two. Drafting Warner would pay dividends in two ways. First, he is a big, fast sideline-to-sideline entity who is fast enough to stick with backs in the pattern and big enough to avoid being punked by tight ends...
...while at the same time developing under the tutelage of Patrick Chung, who is aging and comes out of the game with injury more than he used to, but still has some pop to his game.
Round 4 (36th/136 overall)
Royce Freeman, RB, Oregon (5' 11", 235)
Bigger back that a team can just strap on a feedbag and send him out to do his thing. Played in Oregon's zone-heavy running attack and has intriguing feel for cutback lanes - load to bring down when he gets up a head of steam. Freeman was used sparingly in the passing game until his senior season, when he showed some promise as a screen man, but must improve in pass pro to become a true three-down back.
Round 6 (36th/210 overall)
Braden Smith, G, Auburn (6' 6", 305)
Built like a Mack Truck and knows how to use his frame. If selected, could push Joe Thuney for playing time coming out of camp. Nasty mauler in the running game who has spot duty potential at either tackle position, and potential as a sixth offensive lineman to knock would-be tacklers off their pegs on perimeter runs. A one-man street fight in pass pro, which makes up for some of his lack of reactive athleticism.
Round 7 (1st/219 overall)
Braxton Berrios, WR, Miami (5' 9", 186)
A Danny Amendola clone with requisite toughness and punt return ability makes him well worth the draft capital, and could surprise with a roster spot, usurping a veteran.
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