Belichick Will Have To Get Creative To Help Patriots’ Defense Survive Devastating Loss Of Talent

Eight different members of the New England Patriots have opted out of the 2020 NFL season for reasons related to the ongoing pandemic, and while three of them were counted on to be integral components, their loss opens the door for some talented players waiting in the wings…

…but now, thanks to those players opting out, the Patriots also have almost $35 million in cap space that they could potentially use to bring in a seasoned veteran or two to stem the tide of departures from the depth chart.

Under normal Belichickian standards, those aforementioned young and talented players would essentially go through a “Redshirt” season, seeing minimal action while they watch and learn from the veterans ahead of them on the depth chart, but head coach Bill Belichick appears to have lost the luxury of bringing his newbies along slowly.

Both Chung (23) and Hightower (54) have opted-out of 2020 season

Fortunately, of the players on the list of opt-outs, only the loss of linebacker Dont’a Hightower and right tackle Marcus Cannon are considered problematic, as there is no proven talent behind them on the depth chart – but especially Hightower, as his decision robs the Patriots of not only their play-calling defensive captain, it also leaves the linebacking corps looking more like a Senior Bowl lineup…

…going from a “Who’s who” pack of speedy sack masters to a “Who’s that?” group of rookies and journeyman part-timers that, from the outside, looks like a serious degradation of the talent level.

But these are the New England Patriots, and Belichick is the quintessential boy scout who is always prepared – and while some (most) believe that he was unprepared last season to deal with all of the injuries that crippled his team, the simple fact of the matter is that he was preparing his team for life beyond the dynasty in hopes of creating a new one.

Replacing Hightower And Chung

This is likely to be a game-to-game scenario, which is how Belichick operates anyway.

Belichick is the master game-planner who builds his teams with the Patriots’ schedule in mind. It is said that coaches build their teams to match up with teams in their division, which makes sense on the surface, given that they play each team twice – but in reality, that means that each team plays only six of their sixteen regular season games in-division, leaving ten games against non-division foes…

…so their success or failure in making the post-season lies mainly on how they fare against the ten other teams on their schedule, and somehow, someway, Belichick seems to be able to game plan for every single team, every single week – and he uses his entire roster, even if it’s just in one or two plays throughout the season.

Situational football is what Belichick lives for, and the options that he has for covering the “Will” linebacker spot that Hightower has vacated are actually quite plentiful, if not traditional.

For the past two seasons, Belichick has employed strong safety Patrick Chung in the position at times, and though Chung has also opted out, some the players that they have brought in through free agency and the draft to eventually replace the aging box safety are looking more and more fortuitous as time goes on…

…and the draft also produced a couple of off-the-ball linebackers who possesses the skill set to contribute in the multiple-layer infusion to replace the volume of talent the Patriots lost not only when Hightower opted out, but also the loss of Jamie Collins, Kyle Van Noy and Elandon Roberts in free agency.

It makes sense for Belichick to look at veteran journeyman Brandon Copeland to provide some snaps in Hightower’s stead, but there’s a reason why the Penn product has bounced around the league since entering the NFL as an undrafted free agent in 2014.

He is a man without a true position, initially entering the league as a 265 pound defensive end with impressive speed for the position, but with suspect lateral agility in the pass rush and found himself out of the league for a couple of seasons – then reinvented himself as an outside linebacker for the 2015 veteran combine, shedding twenty pounds and, as a result, trimming two-tenths of a second off of his forty…

…and while that improved his straight-line speed, it did little to improve his agility. At his best, Copeland, who’s weight now stands at 255, is a strong-side, edge-setting linebacker who willingly takes on tight ends on the edge, but also gets regularly swallowed up in the maw, leaving an inside track for runners.

As a result, he found himself as a rotational player for both the Lions and Jets, his greatest contribution being on special teams. With his lack of lateral agility, I can’t see him as a regular part of the lineup, especially if the rookies on the roster can make an immediate impact in camp.

Michigan’s Josh Uche is the favorite to take on the “Will” role vacated by Hightower due to his “tweener” skill set. Though he won many battles as an edge rusher in college, his size could work against him against offensive tackles and tight ends in the pros unless he is schemed as an interior linebacker in a 3-4 defensive alignment, where he could roll to the edge in run defense and attack interior gaps as a blitzer in pass defense.

He possess more speed than Hightower and is fluid in underneath coverages, and the fact that he models his game after the late Sean Taylor, those box safety-like instincts and versatility has to have Belichick salivating at the possibilities of deploying Uche in the middle of his “Amoeba” defense.

As anyone who knows football is familiar with, the difference between the aforementioned box safety and a coverage linebacker is in name only, and since Belichick likes to employ his strong safeties as coverage linebackers, Uche fits that bill – but he’s not the only player on the roster who does.

Belichick’s top pick in the 2020 draft, safety Kyle Dugger, possesses the most versatility of any player on the Patriots’ defense and, as such, he could fill a different role in just about any alignment. A violent striker in space with the speed to handle the back end as well.

Dugger’s coaches at the Senior Bowl tried him at the single high safety position and as a hybrid linebacker who fills well in run support and excels at underneath coverages. He has the size to hold his own at the “Will” spot, where, as mentioned, Belichick used Chung at times to handle the better tight ends in the league.

Former Los Angeles Chargers’ safety Adrian Phillips was signed by Belichick in free agency, most likely to make him more comfortable in facilitating a trade with the Detroit Lions that sent Big Nickel safety Duron Harmon packing in a salary cap move. Phillips is also capable of reducing down into the box, but his presence only adds fuel to the speculation that Dugger will play a major role – something we will get into in a later article.

But with both Phillips and Dugger on the roster, Belichick should be able to continue fielding three safeties in both his Big Nickel and Amoeba packages, especially the latter, which is defined by no definition, a “formation” that is constantly shifting shape during the offensive cadence, making it close to impossible for the quarterback to set his protection at the line because he has no idea where the pressure will be coming from.

And that is important to remember about this defense. In the Amoeba, all of the defenders are juking and shifting as if they are rushing the quarterback, then at the snap, some defenders rush while others fall back into coverage so it is imperative that Belichick have as many versatile athletes on the field…

…and while the Amoeba is geared more towards late-down, long-yardage situations, the presence of players like Uche, Dugger and Phillips, along with young breakout candidates in linebackers Ja’Whaun Bentley and Chase Winovich, he could employ the tactic on early downs as well, albeit with a tweak or two.

All of that said, there is no guarantee with the newbies on the roster, but the versatility in their individual skill sets actually gives Belichick more options both in coverages and in run support than he had with more traditionally-skilled defenders in Hightower and Chung – but that doesn’t mean those players won’t be missed, it simply means that Belichick will have to open up his playbook a little wider, which isn’t a bad thing…

Belichick's Obsession With Safeties Paying Off In A Big Way

3 May, 2020

Lewiston, Maine

Time was, the safety position on the football field was the catch-all for players who were good athletes, but didn't have possess a skill set that translated to anything else.

When I first started playing football as a kid, I was the smallest player on the field but also the fastest. The coaches tried me at many different positions, but eventually "stuck" me at safety. I felt like the forgotten man, all alone on the back end, joining in on the play only when a kid on the opposing offense got past the first and second levels...

Rookie box safety Kyle Dugger

...which, as time wore on and I graduated from Pop Warner to middle school and then to high school ball, became more and more often. Since I was so small, I got trampled if I tried to take on receivers and running backs who broke into the open field, so to stay on the field and off the bench, I had to actually learn the nuances of the position.

That meant that I had to learn the route tree, study angles and work with a track coach to create an explosive first step. I played basketball and developed timing and stronger legs in order to meet the ball in the air - and I started playing hockey, which developed eye-hand coordination and taught me how to absorb big hits - and dish them out - without getting hurt.

In other words, I evolved and became a solid last line of defense as a single high safety who made opposing quarterbacks think twice about dropping bucket throws to deep receivers - not because I arrived at the apex with any kind of thunder, but because I could usually get a hand on the ball and break up the play and, on occasion, intercept the ball.

The point being, the safety positions have evolved into a specialty on every level of football, and have become far more than the last line of defense, no longer the dumping ground for aging cornerbacks or players whose skill set leaves them positionless - and in the New England Patriots' scheme, the safeties that they employ form a three-headed monster that makes their base defense different from every other in the National Football League.

They didn't invent it - the "Big Nickel" defense has been around for five decades - but they run it between sixty-and-seventy percent of the time, and it has been primarily responsible for a defense that has finished ranked in the top ten in nine of the ten years since head coach and general manager Bill Belichick started collecting safeties back in 2009, taking strong safety Patrick Chung with their first overall pick...

...picking up then-cornerback Devin McCourty with his first overall pick in the 2010 draft - the exact same draft that proved to be the talisman that necessitated the need for a three-safety alignment, Belichick selecting tight ends Rob Gronkowski in the second round and Aaron Hernandez two rounds later, then unleashing them on a league that had undervalued the tight end position, for the most part, since the late 70's.

Knowing that the NFL was a copy-cat entity and seeing that the Gronkowski-Hernandez tandem was tantalizingly successful, Belichick began putting together a group of safeties to combat the eventuality that other teams were going to try to copy what he had. He already had Chung and McCourty but needed a third wheel in order to run the Big Nickel alignment, so he used a 2015 third-round pick on a little-known safety out of Rutgers named Duron Harmon.

Harmon was speedy, big and tough, but had a rap on him coming out of college that he was one dimensional and would only fit in a cover-one scheme - a man/zone scheme that employed a single-high safety - as he was at his best seeing the play unfold in front of him and had sideline-to-sideline range and angle recognition to be that last line of defense.

Harmon blossomed into the best centerfielder in the league and earned a reputation as a closer, knocking away would-be scores and coming down with interceptions at the most critical of moments, usually late in games with the outcome still in doubt.

So while the alignment isn't original, it is old school, which is exactly the direction Belichick is taking his team, creating the roster in his image.

The issue he's faced with is that while he has a defensive secondary that is considered one of the best in the league, Belichick traded away Harmon to the Detroit Lions in a salary dump, but did sign former San Diego All Pro safety Adrian Phillips who, if he's fully recovered from a broken arm suffered in week two of last season, is just as rangy and explosive as Harmon.

To further strengthen the secondary, he also selected the best box safety in the class, maybe the best in the last two or three years, when he selected Kyle Dugger, a 6' 1", 220 pound thumper who was born to play the position, and is without a doubt Patrick Chung's eventual replacement - but for now, the presence of Dugger gives Belichick an intriguing set of options moving forward.

They could still run a three-safety package, as Dugger has the size and speed to body up on tight ends and to neutralize running backs wheeling out into the pattern in man coverage, and the violent intent and explosiveness to lay out receivers crossing over the middle in zone. Both McCourty and Phillips can handle the back end well enough, giving the Patriots the horses to continue running the Big Nickel.

Which is most probably the reason that he valued Dugger so much, because Chung and his damaged body may not make it through the entire 2020 season. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I can't recall a game last season that Chung didn't have to have the training staff trot onto the field to render acute medical assistance. Terrence Brooks did a serviceable job backing him up, but with so much quality in the safety corps, he may have a tough time cracking this roster.

That's not a bad problem to have, and considering the talent at cornerback, including AFC Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore and the interchangeable "J" quadruplets, Jason McCourty, Jonathan Jones, JC Jackson and JoeJuan Williams across from him, the potential exists for the Patriots to possess the best secondary in the league...

...which immeasurably helps a front six that returns stalwarts at linebacker and on the defensive line, plus some intriguing newbies from Belichick's solid draft and deft free agency pick ups that will aid in the pass rush and help set a hard edge in the run game.

The mix of talented veterans and exciting young fire pissers makes up the best group of safeties that Belichick has ever fielded, period, his obsession with collecting off-market safeties finally paying off in a big, big way.

Belichick Nails First Pick, Middle Rounds; Draft Offers Several Players Ready To Contribute

Previously published on our sister blog, Mainely Patriots

26 April, 2020

Bill Belichick has a different process for evaluating players in the draft than most, and it's worked out pretty well so far.

That's why it's close to impossible to nail down who he's going to select in the draft - that is unless you consider that Belichick doesn't select players based solely on collegiate performance, he selects them based on the bag full of squirrels running around in his brain that conjures ways of utilizing them to open up his playbook.

Sure he recognizes that he has holes to fill in the lineup and that is part of the equation, which also factors in things like potential attrition and measurables, but the deciding factor when selecting a player is left to Belchick's imagination.

The New England Patriots' 2020 draft haul may be the most diverse and incongruent of his Patriots' career, declining to select the big name that excites fans and opting for players that makes his imagination run wild with possibilities - and once the people who make their living generating mock drafts get that through their heads, they can start understanding that Belichick actually targets players throughout the process and sticks to his board...

...selecting players in order from top to bottom, no matter what round the draft experts project those players to be drafted, and things like level of competition in college means little in his grand scheme.

I'm starting to get it (I got two out of the ten picks correct) but I will never fully understand - that said, one can be sure that once Belichick makes his selections, the method behind his madness starts to make sense, and optimism reigns.

Going into this week's draft, the experts prioritized the outside linebacker, quarterback and tight end positions as needs for the Patriots, and to a certain extent, they were right - but the players that they projected as good fits for Belichick's roster were bypassed by the Dark Master in favor of the little known players in which he imagines can help open up his playbook, incorporating their skill sets into the maw rather than plugging them into a stringent template.

Take the way he approached the tight end position, for example. In my mock, I had him drafting two tight ends, Dayton's Adam Trautman in the third round due to his label as a combination tight end, and LSU's Thaddeus Moss for his traditional "H-back" skill set - and he did select two tight ends, trading up twice in the third round to take players that weren't even on most people's radars.

UCLA's Devin Asiasi is a potential seam buster with good speed and excellent vision and movement in space, while also being a handy red zone threat on fades and has a knack for finding the dead spots in zone coverages, while Virgina Tech's Dalton Keene will remind many of the skill set possessed by former-Patriots' tight end Aaron Hernandez, who was used in the H-back role by Belichick, lining up all over the formation.

Many will wonder why Belichick traded up into the second round to select Michigan outside linebacker Josh Uche when there were so many bigger names left on the draft board, but the undersized edge rusher is a speed demon that can blow by tackles and is an accomplished blitzer who can also hold his own in coverage, carrying his routes further downfield than many in the same position.

Another reason why Belichick called Uche's name is that he played opposite 2019 draft pick Chase Winovich, who together terrorized opposing passers. That chemistry should translate to the field this fall as Winovich is ready for a breakout season as a starting defensive end after limited snaps in his rookie season.

The other linebacker that Belichick selected, Alabama's Anfernee Jennings, isn't much in the pass rush or in coverage- though he notched eight sacks and defended five passes last season - but is pure hell in the running game, setting the edge by tossing tight ends and tackles aside and forcing plays back to the inside, where bigger bodies await.

A tackling machine, Jennings logged 83 tackles in thirteen games in his senior season with the 'Tide, 13 of those coming behind the line of scrimmage.

Jennings' and Uche's skill sets are particularly important for Belichick's defense, as they address issues that the defense has had for years - stopping the running game on the edges and coverage on running backs curling out into the pass pattern.

To further demonstrate his resolve to eliminate these negative impacts, as well as address the demise of Patrick Chung's skill set, Belichick used his second round draft pick marvelously, snagging the best box safety in the draft, Lenoir-Rhyne's Kyle Dugger.

Built like a freight train and striking like one as well, Dugger has the potential to be the centerpiece for Belichick's aggressive Cover-Zero look. Blessed with the rare combination of elite size, speed and explosiveness, Dugger compares more-than-favorably to former NFLer Adrian Wilson, who played at an All-Pro level for much of his career.

Unlike Chung, Dugger is the type of player that opposing offensive coordinators must game plan for and account for on every play, and he will make backs and tight ends think twice about extending for balls, especially over the middle - and he is an absolute load in run defense.

If Belichick got nothing else of value in the draft, Dugger makes his defensive draft grade out as a solid "A", but by adding Uche's elite pass rushing skills and coverage ability in the flat, combined with Jennings' edge-setting prowess, he addressed all of the needs of the defense with superior athletes who should contribute right away.

That is, all but one need, as Belichick passed on pure nose tackles in the draft, instead opting for quick but limited inside linebacker Cassh Maluia out of Wyoming, who is a projectile but needs some professional coaching to become anything more than a taxi squad player.

The same holds true on the other side of the ball, where Belichick tapped three developmental offensive linemen, though another Wolverine, guard Mike Onwenu, could bring his massive 350 pound frame into play as a road-grading power run blocker. Wake Forest guard Justin Herron possesses the footwork to work in a zone run blocking scheme and to provide solid interior pass protection, though he could stand to bulk up a bit.

Perhaps the most intriguing of the three linemen is Memphis center Dustin Woodward, a lightweight relative to the position at 6' 2" and only 285 pounds who is not going to beat out incumbent center David Andrews, but has a high upside as a backup center and guard and is valuable insurance in the event Andrews can not fully resume his role due to missing all of last season with blood clot issues.

But the most Belichickian moment of the draft came when he used his fifth round selection on a linebacker-sized kicker who prides himself on his consistency in foul-weather, game-winning situations. Marshall's Justin Rohrwesser stands 6' 3" and 230 pounds, and when he puts all of it behind his kicks, the ball explodes off his foot, straight and true...

...which is what you want from a place kicker, after all. But what really sets Rohrwesser apart from his peers coming out in the 2020 draft class is the control he shows of the ball on kickoffs, routinely forcing the kick returner to have to play the ball, with enough hang time to allow his coverage teams to arrive under the ball, an important field possession weapon.

All in all, and though it means little coming from me, Belichick deserves a solid "A" in the draft class. Even if his developmental guys don't pan out, he got plenty of value for his roster in rounds two through five, drafting six players who should be major assets to the team immediately.

2020 NFL Draft: Won Some, Lost Some in Patriots' Projections On First Two Days

Previously published on our sister blog, Mainely Patriots

25 April, 2020

Far be it for me to blow my own horn. Aw, who am I kidding?

While Bill Belichick traded up and down and all around in the first three rounds of the 2020 NFL draft, I did manage to nail down two of the players he was likely to select, including top pick in box safety Kyle Dugger - the third time in four seasons that I've gotten their first pick correct - and edge-setting linebacker Anfernee Jennings.

And while I did not even mention the two tight ends they selected in the third round, I did predict that the Patriots would use multiple picks on tight ends.

That said, let's take a look at what they should be looking for on the last day of the draft,  starting with my original projections:

Projected Patriots Draft picks 2020:

First Round: 

Traded away #23;

Second Round: 

#37 Kyle Dugger, S, Lenoir-Rhyne - (pick from trading down from the first round)

Patrick Chung is growing old and fragile. In fact, I can't recall a game last season when he didn't have the training staff run onto the field to escort him off in pain - so the time to find a replacement is upon Belichick, and the best box safety in the draft is Dugger. Bigger, faster and stronger than Chung, he fills well in the running game and arrives with dark intent, and has the length and bulk to match up well with tight ends in the pattern, along with the speed to deal with running backs curling into the flat.

Third Round:

#71 - Adam Trautman, TE, Dayton - A tremendous value if he falls to the third round, as projected. Had he more experience at the position - he played quarterback and was a basketball star upon arrival at Dayton - he has all the tools to be a top-flight professional tight end. He is a willing in-line blocker and lined up all over the formation in the passing game, running routes not typically expected of a tight end. He possesses solid hands and a lot toughness and quickness, and tracks the ball well up the seam. Excellent prospect for a team that isn't tied to tradition.

#87 - Denzel Mims, WR, 6' 3", 205 - Baylor - One of the most versatile recievers in this draft, Mims did everything he was asked to do in college at a very high level. The issue with him coming into the NFL is that the routes he was asked to run in college represents only a small percentage of the route tree that professional receivers are tasked with. The upside is his deep speed, length and catch radius, which probably relegates him to a red zone target and occasional field-stretcher.

#98 - Lucas Niang, RT, Texas Christian University - Powerful hands and violent intent are the hallmarks of Niang, who comes from the same program that produced incumbent right tackle Marcus Cannon a decade ago. Like Cannon, his forte is run blocking, but he comes to the NFL with a more defined pass blocking package. His handwork is elite in both phases, but speed-to-power pass rushers will occasionally gain the edge of him in pass protection, as he relies more on strength and length to swallow up one-dimensional rushers. In the running game, he is a pancake maker with the ability to climb the ladder and erase linebackers. A tremendous value if he's still available in the third round, where the Patriots currently have three selections in their pocket.

#100 -  Anferneee Jennings, OLB, Alabama - A true edge-setter with impressive upper body power to knock tight ends and tackles back and hold the edge, funneling the play inside where bigger bodies await to make the play. While instinctive and explosive off the snap, his closing speed chasing quarterbacks isn't as focused as a pass rusher, but college coaches used him as a disruptor who cuts off escape routes for mobile passers.

Fourth Round:

#125 - Davon Hamilton, NT, 6' 4", 327 - Ohio State - A ture nose tackle in every sense of the word with tremendous lower body strength and quick, violent hands that routinely moved college centers off their mark, blowing up plays in the backfield, sometimes before they even got started. A gap eater who willingly takes on double teams to open up plays for his teammates.

#139  Jordyn Brooks, ILB, Texas Tech - (pick from trading Rob Gronkowski's rights to Tampa Bay) - A true four-down linebacker, the only knock on Brooks is that the defensive line has to keep him clean so that he doesn't get lost in traffic, so he would have to be mentored by experienced linebackers like Hightower in the nuances of playing inside - but once he cleans that up, he has the potential of being a violent interior linebacker who possesses coverage skills to handle backs and tight ends crossing the middle.

# Trevis Gipson, DE, 6' 4", 260 - Tulsa (pick from trading down from the first round) - Possesses a unique skill set that fits perfectly with Belichick's 3-4 alignment. He loves mixing things up with tackles and tight ends and rarely yields ground to them in the running game, setting a mean edge. Not an edge-bender in the pass rush, but is sheer terror when shading tackles to the inside as a five-technique end.

Fifth round: 

# Thaddeus Moss, TE, LSU (pick from trading up from sixth and seventh rounds #195, #235) - Unlike his Hall-of-Fame father, Randy's kid is an elite run blocker who also has the requisite speed and hands to handle safety valve duties in the passing game. He's built like a linebacker and has "H-Back" written all over him.

Sixth round:

#212 - James Proche, WR, SMU - Compared favorably to former-Patriots Danny Amendola, he excels from the slot and is twitchy off the line, with the ability to break in any direction and gain separation. Not big nor impressively fast, his hands and route running make him a perfect player to be mentored by Julian Edelman

#213 - Van Jefferson, WR,  Florida (pick from trading up from sixth and seventh rounds (#204, #241) - a precise route runner with excellent NFL blood lines who is possesses perhaps the most diverse skill set in the draft at the position. Gains separation from anywhere along the line. He's not a speedster like his father was, but his experience and excellence in route running is a young quarterback's best friend.

As mentioned, the Patriots muddled the third-round board by trading up and down during the first two days of the draft - which destroyed my projections for the third day - and now hold six selections on the last day, including four in the sixth round...

...though I still believe that they will draft at least one receiver and a probably a quarterback to give Jarrett Stidham some competition in camp, as well as a right tackle, perhaps a center, and most likely a kicker, as they have released long-time great Stephen Gostkowski.

As you can see from my mock draft above, most of the players I had pegged as Patriots are already gone, with the exception of Gipson, Moss and Proche. I still like all three, though Moss is likely a no-go since Belichick has already drafted two tight ends.

The only real disappointment I have with any of my projections on this last day of the draft is that Jefferson is not available.