25 April, 2020
Far be it for me to blow my own horn. Aw, who am I kidding?
While Bill Belichick traded up and down and all around in the first three rounds of the 2020 NFL draft, I did manage to nail down two of the players he was likely to select, including top pick in box safety Kyle Dugger - the third time in four seasons that I've gotten their first pick correct - and edge-setting linebacker Anfernee Jennings.
And while I did not even mention the two tight ends they selected in the third round, I did predict that the Patriots would use multiple picks on tight ends.
That said, let's take a look at what they should be looking for on the last day of the draft, starting with my original projections:
Projected Patriots Draft picks 2020:
First Round:
Traded away #23;
Second Round:
#37 Kyle Dugger, S, Lenoir-Rhyne - (pick from trading down from the first round)
Patrick Chung is growing old and fragile. In fact, I can't recall a game last season when he didn't have the training staff run onto the field to escort him off in pain - so the time to find a replacement is upon Belichick, and the best box safety in the draft is Dugger. Bigger, faster and stronger than Chung, he fills well in the running game and arrives with dark intent, and has the length and bulk to match up well with tight ends in the pattern, along with the speed to deal with running backs curling into the flat.
Third Round:
#71 - Adam Trautman, TE, Dayton - A tremendous value if he falls to the third round, as projected. Had he more experience at the position - he played quarterback and was a basketball star upon arrival at Dayton - he has all the tools to be a top-flight professional tight end. He is a willing in-line blocker and lined up all over the formation in the passing game, running routes not typically expected of a tight end. He possesses solid hands and a lot toughness and quickness, and tracks the ball well up the seam. Excellent prospect for a team that isn't tied to tradition.
#87 - Denzel Mims, WR, 6' 3", 205 - Baylor - One of the most versatile recievers in this draft, Mims did everything he was asked to do in college at a very high level. The issue with him coming into the NFL is that the routes he was asked to run in college represents only a small percentage of the route tree that professional receivers are tasked with. The upside is his deep speed, length and catch radius, which probably relegates him to a red zone target and occasional field-stretcher.
#98 - Lucas Niang, RT, Texas Christian University - Powerful hands and violent intent are the hallmarks of Niang, who comes from the same program that produced incumbent right tackle Marcus Cannon a decade ago. Like Cannon, his forte is run blocking, but he comes to the NFL with a more defined pass blocking package. His handwork is elite in both phases, but speed-to-power pass rushers will occasionally gain the edge of him in pass protection, as he relies more on strength and length to swallow up one-dimensional rushers. In the running game, he is a pancake maker with the ability to climb the ladder and erase linebackers. A tremendous value if he's still available in the third round, where the Patriots currently have three selections in their pocket.
#100 - Anferneee Jennings, OLB, Alabama - A true edge-setter with impressive upper body power to knock tight ends and tackles back and hold the edge, funneling the play inside where bigger bodies await to make the play. While instinctive and explosive off the snap, his closing speed chasing quarterbacks isn't as focused as a pass rusher, but college coaches used him as a disruptor who cuts off escape routes for mobile passers.
Fourth Round:
#125 - Davon Hamilton, NT, 6' 4", 327 - Ohio State - A ture nose tackle in every sense of the word with tremendous lower body strength and quick, violent hands that routinely moved college centers off their mark, blowing up plays in the backfield, sometimes before they even got started. A gap eater who willingly takes on double teams to open up plays for his teammates.
#139 Jordyn Brooks, ILB, Texas Tech - (pick from trading Rob Gronkowski's rights to Tampa Bay) - A true four-down linebacker, the only knock on Brooks is that the defensive line has to keep him clean so that he doesn't get lost in traffic, so he would have to be mentored by experienced linebackers like Hightower in the nuances of playing inside - but once he cleans that up, he has the potential of being a violent interior linebacker who possesses coverage skills to handle backs and tight ends crossing the middle.
# Trevis Gipson, DE, 6' 4", 260 - Tulsa (pick from trading down from the first round) - Possesses a unique skill set that fits perfectly with Belichick's 3-4 alignment. He loves mixing things up with tackles and tight ends and rarely yields ground to them in the running game, setting a mean edge. Not an edge-bender in the pass rush, but is sheer terror when shading tackles to the inside as a five-technique end.
Fifth round:
# Thaddeus Moss, TE, LSU (pick from trading up from sixth and seventh rounds #195, #235) - Unlike his Hall-of-Fame father, Randy's kid is an elite run blocker who also has the requisite speed and hands to handle safety valve duties in the passing game. He's built like a linebacker and has "H-Back" written all over him.
Sixth round:
#212 - James Proche, WR, SMU - Compared favorably to former-Patriots Danny Amendola, he excels from the slot and is twitchy off the line, with the ability to break in any direction and gain separation. Not big nor impressively fast, his hands and route running make him a perfect player to be mentored by Julian Edelman
#213 - Van Jefferson, WR, Florida (pick from trading up from sixth and seventh rounds (#204, #241) - a precise route runner with excellent NFL blood lines who is possesses perhaps the most diverse skill set in the draft at the position. Gains separation from anywhere along the line. He's not a speedster like his father was, but his experience and excellence in route running is a young quarterback's best friend.
As mentioned, the Patriots muddled the third-round board by trading up and down during the first two days of the draft - which destroyed my projections for the third day - and now hold six selections on the last day, including four in the sixth round...
...though I still believe that they will draft at least one receiver and a probably a quarterback to give Jarrett Stidham some competition in camp, as well as a right tackle, perhaps a center, and most likely a kicker, as they have released long-time great Stephen Gostkowski.
As you can see from my mock draft above, most of the players I had pegged as Patriots are already gone, with the exception of Gipson, Moss and Proche. I still like all three, though Moss is likely a no-go since Belichick has already drafted two tight ends.
The only real disappointment I have with any of my projections on this last day of the draft is that Jefferson is not available.
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