12 April, 2020
Many people are quick to throw blame around for the difficulties that the Patriots' passing game experienced last season - and most of the blame is leveled on the wide receivers.
Some look at head coach Bill Belichick's roster-building process in the 2019 offseason as the talisman of the issues in the passing game, while others focus their displeasure with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels' sometimes nutty play calling, but most of the blame was leveled at the receiving corps itself.
In reality, however, there is no blame to be had. The fact of the matter is that the Patriots experienced a rebuilding year of sorts, which was compounded by injury and the incessant whining of quarterback Tom Brady - all of which contributed to a Patriots' passing attack that didn't scare anyone.
As mentioned in previous articles in this series, Belichick focused his attention on life after Brady and made his draft selections based on a shift in offensive philosophy to prepare for the transition from Brady to whomever is going to replace him at quarterback this season, which left Brady demoralized and showing up at post-game pressers looking like someone shit in his locker.
He obviously knew the score, which is why he signed that ridiculous contract that appeared to give him all the leverage going into this season, but in reality simply made him a very expensive placeholder for what Belichick had planned for life without him. He didn't like it, but his insistence on including a clause in the contract that prohibited the team from placing the franchise or transition tags on him this offseason left Belichick no choice but to think forward and just let the 2019 season play out.
Even so, the pass catching weapons that Brady had at his disposal would have been enough for the Patriots' offense to enjoy more success than it actually did, had injury wiped out so many intrigal pieces that McDaniels had to resort to trick plays to actually move the ball well enough to keep them in games.
After all, Belichick had drafted a big perimeter receiver in N'Keal Harry to go along with veteran garden gnomes Julian Edelman and Phillip Dorsett, then kept promising undrafted free agent Jakobi Meyers on the roster, along with Gunner Olsewski to return punts.
But Harry landed on the injured list, Edelman played through debilitating rib and shoulder injuries, leaving him a shell of his usual explosive self, while Olsewski turned out to be a wasted roster spot with only marginal success in the return game. To his credit, Belichick did try to upgrade his receiving corps by first bringing in Antonio Brown and, later, Mohamed Sanu.
But Brown turned out to be a perverted sociopath who lasted one game on the roster before his past caught up with him, and Sanu had such little impact on the group that he wasn't worth the 2020 second round pick that Belichick sent to Atlanta in trade for him.
Dorsett was woefully underused, as was Meyers, who lost Brady's trust by zigging when he should have been zagging in early games.
The result was the first time any of us had seen Brady so skittish that it affected his performance on the field, and it was powerful to witness. Many of his throws were off target as his trust in his receiving corps waned more and more with each contest and with each injury, and many times Brady ended up just heaving the ball out of bounds rather than risk trying to fit balls into a tight window.
Of course, the thin depth at the receiving positions - exacerbated by the retirement of tight end Rob Gronkowski and the loss of key blockers in the running game - meant that opposing defenses could focus on stopping the Patriots' excellent stable of running backs and took to blitzing Brady, daring him to beat them over the top which, of course, he wasn't willing to do.
Bottom line being, the Patriots' offense was a mess, and if it weren't for an insanely easy first-half schedule, they probably would not have made the playoffs.
But now, all of that is a distant nightmare. Brady is gone and took $13 million of the Patriots' salary cap with him in dead money. Dorsett left for Seattle in free agency, leaving only Harry, Sanu, Edelman and Meyers as the only pass catchers of note, and no clear direction in who will be throwing to them...
...buit whoever that ends up being, Belichick has tasked himself with the ominous task of building a receiving corps that lacks the speed to spread opposing defenses, which is key to opening up the short-to-intermediate routes which are a staple of any Belichickian philosophy.
The second rounder that Belichick gave up to bring in Sanu is just as hurtful to the team as the dead money that Brady's contract at up, as not having that second rounder to play with means that if the Patriots wanted to go after an elite receiver in the draft, they have very little draft capital to do so without putting themselves in an even worse position for the 2021 draft.
And Belichick needs that second round pick, as rounds two through four represent his wheelhouse for stocking his roster - so I'm assuming that he will trade out of the first round to get that second round pick back, and to add another selection in the third or fourth round.
Fortunately for him and the product on the field, the 2020 wide receiver class is incredibly deep with talented pass catchers, so he will be able to find excellent value on the second day of the draft, but don't expect him to spend anything higher than a third-round pick to stock his depth chart.
That leaves out names like Alabama's Henry Ruggs and Arizona State's Brandon Aiyuk, both of whom are projected first-rounders, and probably means that Penn State jitterbug KJ Hamler could be out of the picture as well...
...which is too bad, as Hamler is a pro-ready slot receiver that brings suddenness off the line, elite speed and excellent downfield vision - not to mention kick and punt return ability, which is something sorely lacking at press time.
What makes Hamler special is the suddenness off the line and his repertoire of moves to gain clean breaks into the pattern, with an innate ability to get into overdrive as quickly as any receiver coming out of college, which will make any opposing defensive coordinator think twice about pressing him at the line - and once the ball is in his hands, his vision and quick feet take over and, if he has a step on the defender, he's gone for a long-gainer.
At 5' 9" and only 175 pounds, Hamler's frame may take a year of working with professional strength and conditioning staff before he is anything more than a complimentary slot man, but the potential is certainly there in the long-range forecast.
So perhaps a better option would be Michigan's Donovan Peoples-Jones, who at 6' 1" and 210 pounds is a solid and legitimate threat from the slot, consistently proving that he can turn short throws into long gainers, either by slashing past or running through would-be tacklers. He's a little raw on perimeter routes, but professional coaching should bring his size and length into play. In the interim, he brings immediate help as one of the better downfield blockers in the draft class, and is also a seasoned punt returner.
Many mock drafts feature Baylor's 6' 3", 205 pound Denzel Mims to the Patriots, who has the deep speed, length and insane catch radius to be a legitimate field stretcher. The issue that Mims faces coming into the NFL is his limited experience in the route tree, as Baylor used him primarily as a deep decoy to pull safeties out play.
That's not a bad thing for New England, as they lost the only speed merchant on the team when Dorsett defected to Seattle - but his inexperience in the full route tree probably relegates him initially to the same decoy duties and an athletic red zone target, but his ceiling is very high.
Those two may be too much a project for Belichick to deal with, as he needs playmakers who already have experience with the full route combination - and if's he patient, there are two pass catchers that should be available on the third day of the draft that would fit right in with the tweaked offensive philosophy.
One is the son of former NFL Pro Bowl talent Shawn Jefferson. Florida's Van Jefferson
is one of two late round receivers that could make immediate contributions.
A precise and talented route runner, Jefferson was the quick-twitch to consistently gain separation off the line of scrimmage and has the wing span to haul in balls away from his body. So, why is he a late round projection? His deep speed is merely average and he possesses a wiry frame that could leave him broken against professional defenders.
Be that as it may, Jakobi Meyers and former-Patriots wideout Malcolm Mitchell both came out of college with almost exactly the same profile, and flourished when given a chance in the rookie seasons.
With Julian Edelman reaching middle-age as an NFL receiver and no potential backup to his unique skill set, SMU's 5' 11", 185 pound James Proche, who actually compares more favorably to former Patriot Danny Amendola but would have a perfect mentor in Edelman and could contribute right away.
Not fast but possessing quick feet, a full knowledge of the route tree and competitiveness to burn, Proche is tough out of the slot, with twitchy moves off the line and the ability to break in any direction of the compass with equal success.
It is fully possible that, like it is with the tight end position, the Patriots could spend multiple draft picks on wide receivers, or none at all - and while Belichick would have to be patient enough to bypass higher-projected athletes, the players who fit in as immediate contributors to the passing game are third day selections.
Some may argue that Belichick should use more valuable draft capital to upgrade his pass-catching corps, but when one considers that the Patriots have so many holes to fill elsewhere and already have a decent stable of receivers (when healthy), the smart move would be to go after precise route runners to man the slot and intermediate routes.
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