April 24, 2020
As expected, Bill Belichick used his first round draft pick as a portal to his wheelhouse - and in doing so, he's put his New England Patriots in position to have an epic draft.
Don't be surprised to see Belichick trade down even further into the second round in order to pick up additional mid-round draft picks - but as it stands right now, the Patriots have a second rounder (picked up from the Chargers), four third rounders and three fourth rounders.
That are seven potential selections between pick 37 and 139, which gives Belichick a massive amount of ammunition to be a player all over the draft board, leverage to move up and down the board to grab the players he truly wants.
Naturally, fans and media lost their collective minds, but the method behind Belichick's madness is sound.
Never mind his track record of "Hit or miss" when trading out of the first round, mostly because the draft is crap-shoot to begin with, and he has a history of reaching for players that he could have had in the later rounds.
As bad as some of his second-day picks have been, when he does hit on them, the results are spectacular (See Deion Branch, Jamie Collins, Jimmy Garoppolo, Rob Gronkoswski, Patrick Chung), and each time, he addressed an area badly in need of an upgrade (Except for Garoppolo, because, well...Tom Brady). Where he gets in trouble is when he does that take-the-best-player-available thing.
Luckily (or sadly, depending on your point of view), the Patriots have several areas of need in this draft.
So, the only question is, which need do they address first?
In my mock draft, I had the Patriots trading out of the first round and using that pick on box safety Kyle Dugger out of Lenoir-Rhyne who, in my opinion, is the best box safety in the draft, but came in with a late second-early third round grade - and I think I'm going to stick with that.
In previous mocks, I had Belichick selecting Washington Quarterback Jacob Eason, and while he is still available, There really isn't that much difference between him and would-be incumbent Jarrett Stidham - both good and bad - so I'm thinking that if they do bring in a quarterback at some point, it will be in the third round with a guy like Georgia's Jake Fromm or Oklahoma's Jalen Hurts, or wait until the third day and pick up Florida International's James Morgan as a developmental project.
They are in need of a big-time box safety, where incumbent Patrick Chung is displaying symptoms of breaking down sooner than later. Dugger is big (6' 1", 215), fast, solid in underneath coverages and arrives at the ball carrier with bad intentions.
Maybe his best attribute is the coverage he can lay on a running back wheeling out into the pattern, which has been an Achilles heel for the Patriots' defense for many years - but don't be surprised if Belichick tries to replace departed Big Nickel safety Duron Harmon with surprisingly-still-available Alabama free safety Xavier Mckinney, who has the sideline-to-sideline ability that made Harmon such an important part of the secondary.
California's Ashtyn Davis is another prospect at Free Safety who could replace Harmon. It takes a specialized talent to play the Big Nickel, single-high safety position, and both McKinney and Davis have the measurables and natural talent to do that at a high level.
One name that could make the above all void is Notre Dame's Cole Kmet, the best tight end prospect in the draft. Another could be TCU's athletic and mean right tackle Lucas Niang.
Below, please find my updated Mock draft for the New England Patriots, which is a running tabulation and projects that Belichick will trade down into the second round and pick up a fourth-rounder in the process, then trade up from the sixth and seventh rounds to acquire a fifth round pick - which as we all know, will become a jumbled mess as he navigates the big board:
Projected Patriots Draft picks 2020:
First Round:
Traded away #23;
Second Round:
#37 Kyle Dugger, S, Lenoir-Rhyne - (pick from trading down from the first round)
Patrick Chung is growing old and fragile. In fact, I can't recall a game last season when he didn't have the training staff run onto the field to escort him off in pain - so the time to find a replacement is upon Belichick, and the best box safety in the draft is Dugger. Bigger, faster and stronger than Chung, he fills well in the running game and arrives with dark intent, and has the length and bulk to match up well with tight ends in the pattern, along with the speed to deal with running backs curling into the flat.
Third Round:
#71 - Adam Trautman, TE, Dayton - A tremendous value if he falls to the third round, as projected. Had he more experience at the position - he played quarterback and was a basketball star upon arrival at Dayton - he has all the tools to be a top-flight professional tight end. He is a willing in-line blocker and lined up all over the formation in the passing game, running routes not typically expected of a tight end. He possesses solid hands and a lot toughness and quickness, and tracks the ball well up the seam. Excellent prospect for a team that isn't tied to tradition.
#87 - Denzel Mims, WR, 6' 3", 205 - Baylor - One of the most versatile receivers in this draft, Mims did everything he was asked to do in college at a very high level. The issue with him coming into the NFL is that the routes he was asked to run in college represents only a small percentage of the route tree that professional receivers are tasked with. The upside is his deep speed, length and catch radius, which probably relegates him to a red zone target and occasional field-stretcher.
#98 - Lucas Niang, RT, Texas Christian University - Powerful hands and violent intent are the hallmarks of Niang, who comes from the same program that produced incumbent right tackle Marcus Cannon a decade ago. Like Cannon, his forte is run blocking, but he comes to the NFL with a more defined pass blocking package. His handwork is elite in both phases, but speed-to-power pass rushers will occasionally gain the edge of him in pass protection, as he relies more on strength and length to swallow up one-dimensional rushers. In the running game, he is a pancake maker with the ability to climb the ladder and erase linebackers. A tremendous value if he's still available in the third round, where the Patriots currently have three selections in their pocket.
#100 - Anferneee Jennings, OLB, Alabama - A true edge-setter with impressive upper body power to knock tight ends and tackles back and hold the edge, funneling the play inside where bigger bodies await to make the play. While instinctive and explosive off the snap, his closing speed chasing quarterbacks isn't as focused as a pass rusher, but college coaches used him as a disruptor who cuts off escape routes for mobile passers.
Fourth Round:
#125 - Davon Hamilton, NT, 6' 4", 327 - Ohio State - A ture nose tackle in every sense of the word with tremendous lower body strength and quick, violent hands that routinely moved college centers off their mark, blowing up plays in the backfield, sometimes before they even got started. A gap eater who willingly takes on double teams to open up plays for his teammates.
#139 Jordyn Brooks, ILB, Texas Tech - (pick from trading Rob Gronkowski's rights to Tampa Bay) - A true four-down linebacker, the only knock on Brooks is that the defensive line has to keep him clean so that he doesn't get lost in traffic, so he would have to be mentored by experienced linebackers like Hightower in the nuances of playing inside - but once he cleans that up, he has the potential of being a violent interior linebacker who possesses coverage skills to handle backs and tight ends crossing the middle.
# Trevis Gipson, DE, 6' 4", 260 - Tulsa (pick from trading down from the first round) - Possesses a unique skill set that fits perfectly with Belichick's 3-4 alignment. He loves mixing things up with tackles and tight ends and rarely yields ground to them in the running game, setting a mean edge. Not an edge-bender in the pass rush, but is sheer terror when shading tackles to the inside as a five-technique end.
Fifth round:
# Thaddeus Moss, TE, LSU (pick from trading up from sixth and seventh rounds #195, #235) - Unlike his Hall-of-Fame father, Randy's kid is an elite run blocker who also has the requisite speed and hands to handle safety valve duties in the passing game. He's built like a linebacker and has "H-Back" written all over him.
Sixth round:
#212 - James Proche, WR, SMU - Compared favorably to former-Patriots Danny Amendola, he excels from the slot and is twitchy off the line, with the ability to break in any direction and gain separation. Not big nor impressively fast, his hands and route running make him a perfect player to be mentored by Julian Edelman.
#213 - Van Jefferson, WR, Florida (pick from trading up from sixth and seventh rounds (#204, #241) - a precise route runner with excellent NFL blood lines who is possesses perhaps the most diverse skill set in the draft at the position. Gains separation from anywhere along the line. He's not a speedster like his father was, but his experience and excellence in route running is a young quarterback's best friend.
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