Thursday, April 30, 2020

NFL Draft 2020: Drafting A Quarterback Could Shift Offensive Philosophy

Previously published on our sister blog, Mainely Patriots

14 April, 2020
4:35pm, The Man Cave, Lewiston

Things have sunk pretty low when I find myself watching Judge Judy.

Day fifteen of the Maine lockdown is in reality Day twenty-seven of my coronavirus-based unemployment, and if it wasn't for writing in this blog and daily hikes at the bird sanctuary, I'd have been relegated to daytime television two weeks ago.

I've scrubbed every hard surface in my house, repeatedly, washed all the windows, cleaned out all cupboards and drawers, rearranged the Man Cave - twice - and cleaned the ceiling fans. And now, Judge Judy.

I feel copious amounts of IQ leaking out of my ears. It might sound naïve, but I'm genuinely shocked that people that ignorant actually exist. Judy rips into them, shuts them down hard, and then dismisses them with a condescending snarl that would make even Donald Trump shit his pants.

But not New England Patriots' head coach Bill Belichick, whose weekly press conferences absolutely drip with so much loathing towards the media that they are just as entertaining as anything Judge Judy offers, mostly because she has to follow legal procedure to keep things real, while Belichick is not constrained by anything but his mood.

And his mood these days have to better than the past couple of offseasons, simply because he doesn't have to appease Tom Brady any longer.

That's right. Belichick and Brady have had a contentious relationship ever since Belichick unceremoniously pulled sideline, locker room and team flight privileges from Brady's fitness guru and good friend Alex Guererro, then threw Brady under the proverbial bus in the wake of the so-called "DeflateGate" fiasco...

...causing an even larger chasm between the two by offering Brady's services to the San Francisco 49ers at the trade deadline in 2017. Of course, the 49ers weren't that interested in a fourty-year-old Brady and inquired as to the status of Brady's backup, Jimmy Garoppolo, whom Belichick grudgingly traded to them for a second-round draft pick.

Grudgingly because Garoppolo was the heir-apparent to Brady, offering the ease of a seamless transition between the two - seamless other than Garoppolo's skill set included an athleticism that Brady has never had, which meant that Belichick needed to tweak his offensive philosophy and start bringing in weapons that would meld well with Garoppolo.

Which, of course, meant that Belichick made some moves in free agency and the draft to accommodate his updated philosophy - and when all of that went to hell with the trade of Garoppolo, Belichick had to decide whether to bring in expensive and experienced weapons for the Greatest quarterback of all time to have at his disposal, or to continue on with his plan from an eventual future without Brady.

Was it purely spite that motivated Belichick to continue to plan for life without Brady, or was the lack of elite weaponry for Brady to work with last season simply Belichick staying the course for the future good of the franchise?

Probably, it was a combination of both, and it pissed Brady off something fierce. But all of that aside, Belichick now has a challenge ahead of him that most coaches would dread, but he is looking forward to, if not absolutely thrilled about - because now he gets to build a team from the ground up, with the job security that didn't have the last time he tried.

That was in Cleveland, where he took over a franchise that had a middling roster and built it into what would eventually go on to win a Super Bowl after he was let go rather than follow the team when they moved to Baltimore.

And he's really no stranger to the rude discontent that spews from the mouths of fans and the pens of journalists when it comes to replacing an elite, fan-favorite signal caller, as he unceremoniously benched and eventually released Bernie Kosar after arriving in Cleveland, replacing him with Vinny Testaverde.

That said, the gap present in replacing the greatest quarterback of all time with either an untested second-year player in Jarrett Stidham or a battle-hardened, lovable loser like Brian Hoyer is a hell of a lot wider than the disparity between Kosar and Testaverde, so no one would be surprised if Belichick decided to use premium draft capital on a pro-ready prospect in this year's draft.

The only real question to be answered is whether Belichick wants to keep his offensive philosophy intact with a strong-armed pocket passer, or if he wants to give it a total makeover with a mobile signal caller who has experience in the Run-Pass Option style of attack.

If he decides to stick with the status quo, Oregon's Justin Herbert is a ready-made signal caller, and at 6' 6" and 225 pounds, he has the requisite size to see over the scrum easily and has a ton of experience in play action - plus he is used to full-field reads, as he threw to receivers in college that struggled to separate.

His pre-snap reads are polished and he has the arm strength and accuracy to throw both into tight windows and make downfield bucket throws. A true pocket passer but with more athleticism than the departed Brady, he has a ways to go to become a statue in the pocket and deliver an accurate strike with pressure in his face. That said, Herbert is a talent that will sooner or later become the face of a franchise.

Herbert is mocked to the Patriots in the first round of several mock drafts, but his stock has also risen since the combine, so if New England wants him, they may have to trade up - which is a problem, since they don't possess the kind of draft capital that teams would typically expect or want as compensation.

That would leave two quarterbacks that will assuredly drop into the second round, both of whom offer some degree of talent to run the offense as it had been with Brady under center.

Georgia's Jake Fromm brings the mental aspect to the position, if not an overwhelming arm. Fromm comes from a program where he mastered the pro set offense, with excellent experience in pre-snap reads and audibles, seems to have a sixth sense and good slide in the pocket to avoid pressure, making quick reads and delivering an accurate ball.

The issue is the aforementioned arm strength and possessing zero athleticism to make something out of nothing if flushed out of the pocket. That said, the kid knows how to win, posting a 35-7 record in college despite his physical limitations, and the Patriots could do a lot worse than picking him up in the second round, but they should only do so if they acquire more confidence in their power running game, which will put the play action on the table for the highly intelligent Fromm.

The same holds true for Washington's Jacob Eason, who ran a pro-set offense for the past three college seasons, but unlike Fromm, he has perhaps the best arm in the draft, which would allow Belichick to utilize his entire playbook.

On arm talent alone, Eason compares favorably to every other quarterback in the draft class. He stands tall in the pocket and the ball absolutely explodes out of his hand, especially on perimeter throws, but he can also apply some touch for bucket throws up the seam.

The only negatives on Eason are that he doesn't make plays with his legs and can get a little panicked in a tight phone booth and will pull the ball down before going through his progressions. But that can be fixed, and with Eason running a pro-style offense for the past three seasons, he looks like a solid find.

Of course, the Patriots would have to either trade down from the first round or offer a package of second and third day selections to be in position to select him - but if they want him, they at least have the draft capital to go get him.

If Belichick decides that he isn't tied to the Brady-style of quarterback, there is really only one player in the draft class who incorporates a big arm with the athleticism to make plays outside of the pocket with both his arm and his feet.

6' 4", 225 pound Utah State product Jordan Love, who is a virtual skill set clone of former-heir-in-waiting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, the most vital being the ball tied to his footwork, possessing a snap release and velocity on the ball to make all of the NFL throws.

Three years ago, the Patriots were ready to move on from Brady with Garoppolo, whose athleticism and quick release made him a threat to deliver accurate strikes from any platform on the field. Love is what they envisioned with Garoppolo, only far more aggressive and willing to pull the ball down and escape the pocket, always keeping the ball in position to release in a split-second.

Love is exactly what the modern NFL is turning to as a play-making quarterback, and may be a better fit than Oregon passer Herbert in that he would meld better with his runners.

Both Herbert and Love are mocked all over the first two rounds, so it's difficult to get a read on what the market bears. It could be that if either Herbert or Love do not fall to number twenty-three - and if the Patriots truly are seeking a quarterback - they will trade down into the second round, which brings Fromm and Eason into play.

Bottom line: I don't see the Patriots drafting a quarterback early, if at all. Right now the focus has to be on fixing a defense that got run over in the power running game last season, and to find a tight end or two that can help out in both the running game and the pattern.

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