New England Patriots on Paper - With Shazier now unlikey, Belichick should take familiar route in draft

Do we need to give up on any hope that our Ryan Shazier prediction for the Patriots at pick number 29 would ever happen, given his rising popularity?

Our original pick for the Patriots with their late first round selection was a then-third round graded out Shazier, simply because his scheme versatility and stupid-fast playing speed made him look like an excellent choice both for a hard-hitting Big Nickle and as talented depth on the weak side of the linebacking corps...

...but he has steadily climbed the board in the weeks since the combine and now could be a low 20's pick to Green Bay or Arizona - and unless someone like Eric Ebron, Aaron Donald, C. J. Mosely or Joel Bitonio dropped into Bill Belichick's wheelhouse where he would feel comfortable moving up a couple of spots to grab them, this looks like another trade down year.

If the Patriots keep their first rounder:

1.Joel Bitonio - OT/OG, Nevada - Shazier is the pick if he is here, but word is he won't get past Green Bay at 21, so the Patriots start their reload on the offensive line with a can't-miss, clean prospect with a mean streak a mile wide.  Played tackle at Nevada but will most likely need to move inside to guard in the pros.  Exceptionally strong and takes pride in devouring defensive lineman.

2.Jeremy Hill - RB, LSU - at 6' 1" and 235 pounds, is a unique threat as he can play it anyway you want - he will power through the line or slash through a hole to daylight and has good hands, both in protecting the ball and for snagging passes curling out of the backfield and is instinctive in pass protection.  Most commonly compared to Corey Dillon, and the kind of kid the Patriots can build a power running game around.

3.Marqueston Huff - SS/CB, Wyoming - Belichick's annual surprise defensive back, though Huff is a legitimate second day talent.  Smart, fast and tough with terrific range as a safety with rare closing speed in support and has the straight-line speed to stick vertically.  Perhaps smaller that many teams would prefer from their defensive backs given the current trends, but an incredible talent buried in an average program.

4.Russell Bodine - C, North Carolina - Mean and nasty interior load that delivers his best shot snap after snap - real lunch pail type and also has some swing versatility. Excellent in pass protection and looks to level linebackers in the run game.

4.Marcel Jensen - TE, Fresno State - skill set was woefully under-used in Fresno's spread offense, making him a bit of a wildcard.  His history as a basketball player fits him in with the growing trend in tight ends toward the athletic pass catching type, but is also a load in the running game as an inline blocker.

6.Jeff Mathews - QB, Cornell - sloth-footed with very limited athleticism, Mathews is nevertheless exactly what the Patriots should be looking for to back up Brady for the next three seasons - has every leadership and intellectual trait necessary with big hands and a big accurate arm. Mathews could be developed into a fine replacement.

6.Kevin Pierre-Louis, OLB, Boston College -  A workout warrior, Pierre-Louis could very well be the most versatile linebacker in the class this side of Shazier, as he played the weakside for half of his college career, strong side the latter half, while playing the equivalent of nickle safety when the situation dictated - and he ran a 4.51 at the combine, plus finished in the top three in just about every agility drill there.

7.Ryan Carrethers - NT, Arkansas State - What Carrethers brings to the field can't be taught short and stout but strong as a house, was built to be a rotational two-gap run stuffer - and is NFL ready in that capacity.

Priority Free Agents: Blake Annen, TE, Cincinnati; Will Clarke, DE, West Virginia; Devin Street, WR, Pittsburgh; James Wilder, Jr., RB, Florida State; Jay Prosch, FB, Auburn; Larry Webster, DE/TE, Bloomburg College; James Baker, RB, Idaho; Richard Rodgers, TE, California; Jeff Janis, WR, Saginaw Valley State.

If the Patriots trade down for a second, fourth and seventh rounder:

2.Jeremy Hill - RB, LSU - at 6' 1" and 235 pounds, is a unique threat as he can play it anyway you want - he will power through the line or slash through a hole to daylight and has good hands, both in protecting the ball and for snagging passes curling out of the backfield and is instinctive in pass protection - most commonly compared to Corey Dillon.

2..Laurent Duvernay-Tardif - OT/OG, McGill University - plays both tackle and guard positions for McGill College and is expected to be the top pick in the Canadian Football League draft.  Is a nasty street fighter in the trenches and would project at one of the guard positions with the natural ability to slide out to tackle is needed.

3.Marqueston Huff - SS/CB, Wyoming - Belichick's annual surprise defensive back, though Huff is a legitimate second day talent.  Smart, fast and tough with terrific range as a safety with rare closing speed in support - arriving with a big pop -  and has the straight-line speed to stick vertically.  Perhaps smaller that many teams would prefer from their defensive backs given the current trends, but an incredible talent buried in an average program.


4.Ed Stinson - DE, Alabama - 6' 3" and a stout 290 pounds, and just might be the ticket in Foxborough - country strong, he doesn't worry about fancy moves, he just drives the tackle back into the pocket and may be the best 4-3 defensive end against the run in the class.  Similar in build to former teammate Dont'a Hightower and has a similar upside in versatility as he can move inside, all the way if needed.  Terrific value in the fourth round.

4.Marcel Jensen - TE, Fresno State - skill set was woefully under-used in Fresno's spread offense, making him a bit of a wildcard.  His history as a basketball player fits him in with the growing trend in tight ends toward the athletic pass catching type, but is also a load in the running game as an inline blocker.

4.Russell Bodine - C, North Carolina - Mean and nasty interior load that delivers his best shot snap after snap - real lunch pail type and also has some swing versatility. Excellent in pass protection and looks to level linebackers in the run game.

6.Jeff Mathews - QB, Cornell - sloth-footed with very limited athleticism, Mathews is nevertheless exactly what the Patriots should be looking for to back up Brady for the next three seasons - has every leadership and intellectual trait necessary with big hands and a big accurate arm. Mathews could be developed into a fine replacement.


6.Kevin Pierre-Louis, OLB, Boston College -  A workout warrior, Pierre-Louis could very well be the most versatile linebacker in the class this side of Shazier, as he played the weakside for half of his college career, strong side the latter half, while playing the equivalent of nickle safety when the situation dictated - and he ran a 4.51 at the combine, plus finished in the top three in just about every agility drill there.

7..Blake Annen  - TE, Cincinnati - Produced exceptional results at his pro day, blazing a 40-time (4.41) faster than many receivers. Scrappy in-line blocker, who sustains the block and always tries to drive the defender to the ground

7.Ryan Carrethers - NT, Arkansas State - What Carrethers brings to the field can't be taught short and stout but strong as a house, was built to be a rotational two-gap run stuffer - and is NFL ready in that capacity.

Priority Free Agents: Will Clarke, DE, West Virginia; Devin Street, WR, Pittsburgh; James Wilder, Jr., RB, Florida State; Jay Prosch, FB, Auburn; Larry Webster, DE/TE, Bloomburg College; James Baker, RB, Idaho; Richard Rodgers, TE, California; Jeff Janis, WR, Saginaw Valley State.  

Reloading the Musket - New England Patriots 2014 Mock Draft, Volume 2: Shazier still the pick

Always trust your gut.

When it's dinner time - or even when I'm just feeling snackish - my gut tells me that a double quarter-pounder with cheese is my main course, but not until I've visited Burger King for their fries and Wendy's for an order of their chicken nuggets and, of course, a chocolate frosty.

And Taco Bell for a six pack of tacos.

Potential Patriots S Marqueston Huff (2) and TE Crockett Gillmore (10)

If I'm feeling like something different, it's the KFC people for their famous bowl, an order of biscuits and extra mashed potatoes and gravy - and a six pack of tacos.  Never underestimate the versatility of a taco.

Some would feel like it would be a lot of unnecessary travel just to satisfy my overly sensitive palate, but all of these places are within a mile of each other on Lisbon Street in Lewiston, a filthy little burg of about 35,000 people in south-central Maine, the city's only claim to fame the 1965 Heavyweight Championship rematch between Muhammad Ali and Sonny Liston.

That was the "Phantom Punch" fight, where legend has it that Liston took a dive to satisfy some undisclosed debt to the mob, turning what was supposed to be "one of the great things to happen in Maine", as said by then Governor John Reed into an embarrassment that ruined the mill town.

But we still have fast food joints - except Wendy's, which has relocated the the good side of the Androscoggin River - and the arena that the fight took place in is still standing as a hockey arena, but that's about it.

Things would be a lot easier if there was such thing as a buffet joint in the center of town where one could go and get their different favorites in one convenient place - which is kind of like what the Patriots get when they go to the NFL Draft in New York, all of their favorite flavors together in one place...

...the line is very long and there is a chance that the select menu item will be out of stock by the time Bill Belichick bellies up to the buffet table and grabs the big nasty spoon, but that's where having diverse tastes in many different cuisines comes in handy - and the Hooded one is rarely disappointed with the leftovers.

Because to him, they are not leftovers.  They are players that Belichick has projected to be still on the menu when it becomes his turn - and the proof is in the pudding, so to speak, as every player drafted by the Patriots in 2013 made the 53 man roster.

As far as my gut is concerned, I have felt that Ohio State linebacker Ryan Shazier should be the Patriots' first round draft choice since the beginning of the evaluation process, given his versatility, speed and the ability to track running backs in the pattern like a safety...

...and that a feature back, some help along the defensive line and at safety, a multi-dimensional tight end and some interior offensive line help should be included in the draft mix - and lastly, a big, developmental quarterback with a cannon for an arm.

At least, that's what my gut tells me - and since it's speaking, I guess it's time to hit Mickey D's...

1. Ryan Shazier, OLB, Ohio State

Identified before the combine as the best fit of all potential first rounders within reach of the Patriots at number 29, Shazier is what an evil scientist might piece together in a lab as the prototypical Big Nickle - and if anyone were to doubt his ability to play amongst the big boys, take a look at this goal line stand last season:



Shazier is lightning quick and has violent intent in the pass rush and run support, and has the kind of instincts and big hitting ability that makes receivers account for his whereabouts on the field before they go venturing over the middle.

Nicknamed "The Eraser" by his college coaches for his ability to make bad decisions made by his teammates go away, he is projected as either a weak-side linebacker or a strong safety in the pros, but is it too much to ask for both?

2. Marqueston Huff, FS/CB Wyoming 

Bill Belichick's annual pick of an unknown defensive back.  In 2012, it was Tavon Wilson out of Illinois and in 2013 he selected Duron Harmon from Rutgers - and while Wilson has developed into a core-four special teamer, Harmon is in line to start opposite Devin McCourty on the back end - and where depth is somewhat of an issue behind those two, we present to you:



Unbelievable closing speed in run support and as a centerfielder and terrific in blanket coverage, Huff arrives fast and with malicious intent.  Played corner for three years at Wyoming before giving safety a shot in his senior year - is very talkative and is a special contributor on special teams.

Granted, the cornerback depth chart for the Patriots is loaded for bear, not only with the best in the business on one side and a three-way dogfight for the right to operate opposite him, there may be no deeper group in the league - but if Revis ends up being a one year rental, the hit in the secondary would be catastrophic if there wasn't good blanket men ready to ascend.  Besides, isn't it Belichick who always says that you can never have enough defensive backs?

Perhaps Huff would remain at safety for the Patriots, as he packs a wallop and would certainly cause receivers going over the middle to develop a case of alligator arms, but his man coverage skill dictates a move to corner eventually.

3. Terrence West, RB, Towson 

There isn't a better place for West to end up than in Foxborough.  The small-school power back embodies what the Patriots should desire in a featured back, as he can do it any way you want to play it - because he is a one-cut, downhill bulldozer that has a nose for the end zone and likes to initiate him a little contact.

While he doesn't possess breakaway speed, he's got the wheels to slash and create in the open field, but his best attributes are running over folks and celebrating touchdowns.



So why is Foxborough the best place for West to be?  He rumbles and explodes like Ridley and has soft hands to contribute in the passing game - and with all three backs on the Patriots' roster seeing free agency after this season, West has the opportunity to make the position his for a long time to come.

It's a worn-out axiom that reigns false for most backs, but West truly does get stronger as the game goes on, and he's dynamic to the point that he can handle being a three down back.


4. Will Clarke, DE West Virginia

Notre Dame left tackle Zack Martin went into the Senior Bowl a few months back as one of the best tactical pass protectors in the country and a sure-fire first round draft pick - and got absolutely used by the long and strong Clarke.

That doesn't mean as much now as it will in November and December when the 6' 6", 275 pound defensive end is beating offensive tackles with a combination of good initial quickness and excellent hands to keep them from locking onto him - and just about any "expert" you talk to about Clarke will tell you that he's a poor man's Chandler Jones...



...hence the 4th round grade, which could turn into a second day steal according to some, but a potential bust to others, so it shouldn't be surprising that the projections on Clarke are all over the place, some experts having him as high as a second rounder, some as low as priority free agent.

Excellent size and length for the position, Clarke has a variety of pass rush moves that can take him both out into the flat to set the edge or to stunt inside where he can use his quickness to beat guards - and being compared to Jones can't hurt.

4. John Urschel, G/C, Penn State

A trend that I've noticed in the evaluation process is that the athletes that make the list have at least a functional understanding of the pro style offenses, and players coming out of Penn State are particularly adept at the Patriots' Way of doing things, having worked under former Pats' offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien for a couple of years.

One gets the feeling that Urschel's pursuit of his PhD in Mathematics will ultimately mean more to him than being a professional football player, but there is something in the game that intrigues him, pushes him.  If there was an answer to the question that the game poses for him, perhaps the drive wouldn't be there...



Durable and requisite tough, Urschel started every game in his last two seasons at right guard, but possesses the quickness and intangibles to overtake the center position - and at 6' 3" and 315 pounds, a more perfect size for the pivot does not exist - and his versatility will prove attractive in a draft capital sort of way.

And if he can't intimidate the opponent with his guile and tenacity, he can whip out that Masters' Degree and the scientific journals that he's been published in.  That should scare the hell out of them.

6. Crockett Gillmore, TE, Colorado State 

A nasty inline and down field blocker who also has soft hands and catches everything thrown his way.  Excellent size (6' 6", 260 pounds) for the position and has the aptitude and experience to be a hidden gem as a "move" tight end.



Gillmore is another player all over the board, but gets a 4th round grade here due to having the attitude and ability to do it both ways.  We saw in this video that he takes pride in blocking, frequently pancaking the defensive end, plus the receiving skill is evident and appears to be a good stretch in the seam.

Of course, the defensive ends that he's shoving around are in college and not the pros, but just the fact that he finds the leverage to be effective despite being a bit lean shows an eye for technique and an aptitude to be mentored and coached up.

Fresno State's Marcel Jensen is a nice alternate choice, but a bit of a wildcard in that he was underused and his body of work is not conclusive to the layman's eye.

6.Ryan Carrethers, NT, Arkansas State

The Patriots are in need of a nose tackle - not a defensive tackle.  DT is well-manned in the Patriots' scheme, where NT is a bit shallow in the depth pool.  Vince Wilfork was extended by the team, but the contract guarantees him nothing after this season, which is a good business decision by the suits because no one really knows how Wilfork's power and athleticism have been affected by his Achilles tear.

Late-season pick up Sealver Siliga proved to be a stout run plugger who will be perfect in a rotation with Wilfork in the base defense, that's really what the team should be looking for is someone to develop in the role - and the stronger, the better...



Ryan Carrethers is a house.  The video confirms that he's a gargoyle that is difficult to move off his spot even when double-teamed.  He's not the most athletic guy in the world and isn't going to chase anyone down from behind, but the nose tackle in the Patriots' system occupies a center and a guard, redirects running backs and re-establishes the line of scrimmage in the passing game by forcing his mirror back into the pocket.

Take notice of the difficult time that linebacker Dont'a Hightower had last season when all of the injuries occured.  He was consistently late in picking up tight ends coming into the pattern because he had to react to even the hint of a running play without a true nose tackle to funnel the plays to a particular gap, and that all changed when Siliga was signed, and Carrethers can be molded in the same manner.

7. Jeff Mathews, QB, Cornell

The one thing that separates Cornell quarterback Jeff Mathews from the pack - in the wrong direction -  is the perception that he doesn't move well enough either inside or outside the pocket to be an affective NFL passer, something that prompted him to spend all of his Junior and Senior years to try and improve - which should be evident from the video below:



Though the producers of the video are obviously big-time homers, the product on the field is impressive.  While not the first rounder that the narrative would have you believe, there is certainly more than enough upside to Mathews' game to warrant a third-day pick - and given that he's a four-year starter and generally considered to have the best arm in the class, he is well worth a shot to develop for a year and see where some professional coaching takes him.

Reloading the Musket - Part 4: Choosing developmental quarterback an elementary task for Patriots

The mainstay of Sir Arthur Conan Doyle's Sherlock Holmes character in his quest to make truth out of mystery was his theory that once he eliminated the impossible, whatever remained - no matter how improbable - must be the truth.

It is a crude formula that still leaves much open to interpretation, but Holmes never had to try and match wits with the football mind of Bill Belichick and his passion for the elementary - and with the most fundamental of all concepts in football being to build your offense to force the defense to defend the entire field, it goes without saying the the cornerstone of said offense be a quarterback that has the ability to grasp that concept.

That said, it's really no big secret that Belichick is rumored to be in the market for a developmental signal caller, and with the draft class being full of prospects to that end, it would figure that Belichick would be hosting some of these kids in an attempt to see where their heads are at...

With Brady (12) and Mallett (15) on the roster, there's no need to reach

...but Johnny Manziel?

Manziel was in town the other day, along with Teddy Bridgewater- and, as if on cue, social media exploded with rumor and innuendo, some suggesting that either one could possibly be drafted by the New England Patriots as heir-apparent to future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady.

And while one should never put anything past coach and defacto General Manager Bill Belichick in regard to possible draft choices, to suggest that either Manziel or Bridgewater are a month away from becoming the Patriots' first round draft pick is prima facie absurd.

Yes, Belichick will one day need to send someone else out of the field besides number twelve, but there is no reason to believe that day is coming before Brady's contact expires after the 2017 season - and nobody in their right mind would believe that either one of those guys are going to want to wait for three years to get a starting gig.

So by eliminating the impossible, what exactly remains that explains what those two kids were doing at Gillette Stadium?

All we know is that neither is expected to still be on the board when New England is on the clock at number 29 - which makes their presence fuel rampant speculation that Belichick is planning some sort of draft day coup, some sure that Belichick will trade up while others speculate that Bill is in cahoots with former offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien (now head coach at Houston) to help him get both Jadeveon Clowney and Manziel...

...which smacks of collusion, even if it is legal - and we also know is that Belichick doesn't need to reach for any quarterback in this class, particularly when neither of the invitees to Foxborough fully fit the profile of a Patriots' quarterback.

Manziel is a known party fiend and - true to his onfield persona - is a bit of a fly-by-the-seat-of-his-pants quarterback that conjures images of the kid that draws up pass patterns in the dirt then scrambles around and ends up going off-script anyway - his huge hands and floppy clown feet perfect for the weather in New England, but with his cavalier attitude would eventually end up driving Belichick crazy...

...while Bridgewater is everything that Manziel is not - quiet, reserved and studious, determined to succeed and his football intangibles are off the charts, having everything that any football coach would want from not just a quarterback, but also from a team leader in the locker room and in the huddle - except for those small-ish hands and average arm.

This is not to say that the Patriots don't value most of those commodities, particularly with Bridgewater, just that his small hands and resultant lack of arm strength do not match well with the inclimate weather he would be facing in New England - but everything else that Belichick could want in a quarterback he has, and if Belichick were to reach, the Louisville quarterback would probably be the choice.

Perhaps if Bill could somehow merge both of them together into one body...

And it may come down to that, as there are a couple of quarterbacks in the 2013 draft class that envelop many of the traits native to these two top shelf prospects - both good and bad - and the common theme is that the person whom Belichick drafts will be a player who could be a star in his offense, if given two to three years to develop under the watchful eye of the all-knowing hoodie.

So, what are the options for the Patriots in their search for a developmental signal caller?  You can probably rule out Central Florida's Blake Bortles because he'll be gone as well, while Fresno State's Derek Carr may be available but probably has a bit too much Manziel in him for Belichick's taste - plus his small hands must be taken into account...

...A. J. McCarron could be a possibility with his football IQ and mechanics, as could Eastern Illinois' signal caller Jimmy Garoppolo, both viewed as more of safe game managers rather than big-time downfield playmakers, which isn't the worst thing in the world.

Miami's Stephen Morris has a bigger arm than either McCarron or Garoppolo and he has the leadership skill to command an offense.  Morris represents the start of the list of throwers that should land in Belichick's wheelhouse for a developmental role that could be molded into a legit NFL starter...

...not that any of the others listed above couldn't do the same, it's just that they all view themselves as NFL ready - and in many ways they are, and that's not what this is about.

Belichick needs a somewhat raw prospect that knows that he's going to have to bide his time, but with a level of skill that could pull off spot duty until his time comes.

LSU's Zack Mettenberger is right on that cusp of being NFL ready but is a work in progress that probably will take at least a season behind an incumbent to refine skills, but has experience in pro style and is a classic drop back pocket passer that hard-sells the play-action - the same with Pittsburgh's Tom Savage, who has better athleticism than any quarterback in the wheelhouse but is extremely raw and will need a year or two being coached up before his potential is realized.

Both of those guys will probably require the investment of a third or fourth round pick, and if Belichick doesn't want to spend that kind of draft capital on a player that may not even see the active roster this season, there are a couple of intriguing quarterbacks that can be had on the third day who could fit right into his and Brady's time frame...

...the most intriguing of which is Cornell quarterback Jeff Mathews - sloth-footed with very limited athleticism, Mathews is nevertheless exactly what the Patriots should be looking for to back up Brady for the next three seasons - has every leadership and intellectual trait necessary with big hands and a big accurate arm.  Graded out as a quality backup with spot-starter potential, coachable, with plenty of room to grow into the job, Mathews could be developed into a fine replacement.



There are others worth mentioning, but the point has been made.  The thing that has to be remembered is  that unlike many other teams, the Patriots aren't desperate and the worst that could happen if a project quarterback isn't drafted is that the Patriots enter the season with Brady under center and 4th year backup Ryan Mallett holding a clipboard...

...but by the same token, Mallett is in the last year of his rookie deal and one has to wonder what's going though his head.  How willing would he be to hang out for another three years until Brady hangs 'em up for a chance to quarterback the team until he turns 40, and at a rate of pay that makes the accountants happy?

Questions, questions, and we're still a month away from the draft - so instead of eliminating the impossible and working with what's left, why don't we just follow a simpler, more elementary route, the one where we don't ask any questions at all and let the process play out?

Because with Brady still going strong and Mallett still around for at least one more season, it doesn't take Sherlock Holmes to figure out that the Patriots are in good shape under center no matter which direction they go.