Thursday, December 3, 2015

Roster Reset - Gronkowski, Hightower Injuries Cause Shuffling On Depth Chart

It has been noted that all of New England holds its' collective breath every time Patriots' tight end Rob Gronkowski hits the ground, the air thick with dread as they wait in unison for the hulking man-child to arise like a Pheonix from the ashes.

And why not? The fifth year matchup nightmare has been a walking M*A*S*H unit since his second year in the league, breaking his arm, tweaking his back, rebreaking his arm and suffering a torn ACL in his abbreviated time in the NFL, so instead of them viewing him as a bull in a china shop by the way he regularly abuses linebackers and safeties, he is seen as a piece of fine china in a room full of bulls.

In reality, while Gronkowski may seem fragile and vulnerable, he takes wicked shots from opposing players every week, and most of the time, it's right around his knee area - and when he took one of those shots on Sunday night in Denver, he didn't get up.

Well, he did get up eventually, loaded on the meat wagon and taken into the locker room where team doctors apparently rubbed some dirt on it and he was seen walking out of the locker room after the game with not even so much as a limp.

Patriots' Nation exhaled collectively when an MRI showed that there was no structural damage to Gronkowski's knee, but still hold a level of trepidation as his week-to-week status on the injury report along with his video statement that he would not return until 100% healthy put the spotlight on fellow tight ends Chandler, Williams and Cleveland - none of whom come close to having the same impact on a game that the man-child does.

And so, with Gronk out for an unspecified amount of time and fellow pass catchers Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman on the shelf for the time being, it is prudent for us to take a look at the roster as it stands up to the moment, and to discuss how the newest Patriots' signings could help fill the gap in the interim...

Quarterbacks (2)

Tom Brady
Jimmy Garoppolo

Running Backs (4)

LeGarrette Blount
Brandon Bolden
James White
Trey Williams - a shifty runner with a unique combination of corner-turning speed and close quarters elusiveness. Like a seasoned fighter, his feet "throw" combinations of moves featuring a nasty stutter step and an ankle-breaking jump cut that makes the defender whiff wildly.

So why was he available? Simply, he is not much larger than a garden gnome and needs to get the ball in the flat or in space where he has a chance to make the defender miss because he offers little in the running game between the tackles and isn't much in blitz pick up, so his presence in the backfield will show the offenses hand and signal blitzers - but if he gets loose on the second level, magic happens. Has experience returning kicks, but not much returning punts.

Receivers (6)

Danny Amendola - Should be ready to return from minor knee injury either this week or next...
Julian Edelman - Hoping to be back and ready for action around the end of the regular season.
Brandon LaFell
Matthew Slater
Keshawn Martin
Demaris Johnson - Another garden gnome, Johnson is just as slippery and quick as Williams, but doesn't possess the running back's elite speed, coming in at 4.52 in the 40 yard dash compared to the running back's 4.49.

Johnson's NFL career has seen him as a part-time starter with the Eagles as a rookie in 2012, replacing the fragile Jeremy Maclin in the lineup, who missed time with hip and rib issues - but was largely ignored when Philadelphia hired Chip Kelly as their head coach the following season, then found himself out of a job when Kelly cut him prior to the 2014 season.

The Texans picked him up off the scrap heap and turned him into a fine number three option in their limited passing game, hauling in 31 balls for 331 yards. He also has experience as a kick and punt returner but could do well to place a greater emphasis on ball security, as he's put the ball on the ground three times in just 52 touches.

Tight Ends (4)

Rob Gronkowski - Gronkowski is listed as week-to-week with a bruised knee, and not expected to play against Philadelphia.
Scott Chandler
Michael Williams
Asante Cleveland

Offensive Linemen (8)

Sebastian Vollmer
Cameron Fleming
Shaq Mason
Tre Jackson
Bryan Stork
David Andrews
Josh Kline
Marcus Cannon

Offense Total: 24

Defensive Linemen (9)

Rob Ninkovich
Akiem Hicks
Geneo Grissom
Chandler Jones
Jabaal Sheard
Alan Branch
Dominique Easley
Malcom Brown
Sealver Siliga

Linebackers (6)

Jamie Collins
Jerod Mayo
Dont'a Hightower
Jonathan Freeny
Jon Bostic
Darius Fleming - Fleming played for the team last season and proved to be a useful edge-setter, but that's all he really is along with some situational pass rushing skill. He should be used on pure rushing downs to set the strong side edge is Collins is unable to play.

Cornerbacks (4)

Malcolm Butler
Logan Ryan
Rashaan Melvin
Justin Coleman

Safeties (7)

Patrick Chung
Devin McCourty
Duron Harmon
Brandon King
Jordan Richards
Tavon Wilson
Nate Ebner

Defensive Total: 26

Special Teams (3)

Ryan Allen
Stephen Gostkowski
Joe Cardona

Saturday, November 28, 2015

The Art Of War - Belichick's Adherence To Ancient Teachings A Key To Patriots' Success

"He wins his battles by making no mistakes. Making no mistakes is what establishes the certainty of victory, for it means conquering an enemy that is already defeated...Hence the skillful fighter puts himself into a position which makes defeat impossible, and does not miss the moment for defeating the enemy...Thus is it that in war the victorious strategist only seeks battle after the victory has been won, whereas he who is destined to defeat first fights and afterwards looks for victory." - Art of War, Chapter IV, verses 11-14
The Art of War may be 2500 years old, but the lessons contained in its text have been appropriate and meaningful for practically any military application or in the business or sports worlds since fabled Chinese General Sun Tzu jotted them down in the five centuries before the birth of Christ...

It is timeless advice - be you a General, a business magnate or a football coach - that the contriver who assures himself of the best chance for victory is the one who wins the battle before it even starts. As that translates to football, just being the best prepared team isn't always a harbinger of success on the field, as there are many other conditions that affect the outcome of a contest.

Sun Tzu defines these in the first chapter of The Art of War:
* Which teams' coach is more imbued with the "Moral Law", that is, which coach inspires his men to follow his direction, to be "in complete accord" with him;
* Which teams' "General" has the most ability, general defined as the quarterback;
* With which team lies the advantages of "Heaven and Earth", that is which team does the elements favor;
* On which side is discipline most rigorously enforced;
* Which army is stronger;
* On which side are the officers and men more highly trained;
* In which army is there greater constancy both in reward and punishment?
Without question, the team that has most exemplified these seven military conditions since the turn of the century has been the New England Patriots - as head ball coach Bill Belichick's track record in discipline and reward are well documented,  his game plans ensuring that his men are more highly trained week-to-week absolutely screams respect, and the way he builds his team has them playing at their best when the elements are at their worst...

...and, of course, his quarterback consistently displays better ability than his peers - the result of which has been the best record in the league since Belichick assumed the reigns of the franchise. His teams have been to nine Conference championship games in his 16 year tenure, winning six times and translating those into four world titles

Bill Belichick is the head ball coach and defacto General Manager of the New England Patriots, and there is no one in the league - either on the sideline or the front office - that does those jobs more efficiently and just plain better than the Dark Master - and while Belichick gets plenty of credit for being the best coach of the generation, his record as a General Manager is just as impressive.

Forget his much-publicized misses in drafting cornerbacks and wide receivers - because just like in playing the actual games, no one wins them all, but Belichick has won more on and off the field in the past 16 years than any other coach or General Manager in the business, because of his adherence to the ageless wisdom of the Art of War in regard to preparation, a level of preparation that nearly always assures him of victory even before he enters the arena.

The fact that he is intimately and actively involved in every facet of team operations means that he scouts every player coming out of college - and even more so, the free agent market - which has resulted in some of the more interesting and artistic team building the National Football League has ever seen, as the Patriots' roster is littered with players that didn't quite make it on other teams who didn't have the solid foundation in place that allows those coaching staffs to use them to their full potential.

To be sure, Belichick has had the great fortune of being employed by an owner that was patient enough with him to allow him to implement his own brand once he was free and clear of the far-reaching Bill Parcells era and, to a lesser extent, the Pete Carroll experiment, mix-matching his philosophies with what he inherited at the turn of the century and turning the product on the field into Super Bowl titles...

...drafting names like Brady, Seymour, Light, Givens, Branch and Samuel to complete the puzzle and jump start an amazing run that has seen his teams win ten or more games in thirteen consecutive seasons - a run that even spanned what could be called the "Dark Ages" of his tenure, the 2008 - 2010 period in which the team was good enough to qualify for the playoffs, but not diverse enough to go any further.

Without doubt, this period was governed by questionable drafts after the Championships as Belichick attempted to sever all ties from the Parcells/Carroll teams, where Belichick earned his unfortunate reputation for missing on defensive backs and wide receivers, as names like Ellis Hobbs, Chad Jackson, Terrence Wheatley and Brandon Tate came in with much fanfare, only to fizzle when faced with the rigid structure of a most fundamental approach.

Because of this, Belichick doesn't go after players who will fit his system, he goes after players who accentuate his system and makes it possible to open up more of his playbook. Its a subtle difference, but one that allows him to be just as diverse in his game planning as his players are on the field.  If a starter goes down, his game plan morphs and his play book adjusts, allowing for what the backups bring to the table.

It's not as black-and-white as most understand, but that's the beauty of having the company credit card with a $143 million dollar spending limit - and it's amazing what value the man gets for his dollar.
"What the ancients called a clever fighter is one who not only wins, but excels in winning with ease" - Chapter IV, Verse 11
On the field, Belichick adheres faithfully to the tenets of the Erhardt-Perkins offensive philosophy along with a loose interpretation of the Fairbanks-Bullough defense - "loose", because that philosophy has traditionally been interpreted as a 3-4 but the Patriots' recent history of their linebacker depth being taxed due to injury has precipitated what amounts to a 4-2-5 "Big Nickle"...

...most of the time the fifth defensive back being a third safety rather than a third corner. The Patriots feature great depth in their safety corps - by design, as Belichick has been stocking it with "reaches" in the draft for the past four seasons, and now allows him to run with a single high safety while one safety drops into the box and another reduces down and either doubles up or covers the slot.

But the key to this alignment is that at the snap, the Patriots have eight players within seven yards of the line of scrimmage, making it very difficult for the opposing quarterback to be sure of where pressure will be coming from, and which defensive players are covering his receivers. This offers the Patriots a distinct advantage, particularly in obvious passing situations and in run-heavy schemes where the safeties act as linebackers in plugging the gaps.

The same versatility is required by the "skill" position players on offense, as the concept-driven Erhardt-Perkins scheme relies on a particular brand of athlete - pass catchers that can run every route on the tree, and have the mental capacity to realize the importance of knowing not only where his teammates are aligned, but also to understand why.

It's complicated, but it also causes the defense to have to defend the entire field, as tight ends and wide receivers are classified merely as pass catchers and all are expected to run the entire tree if called upon to do so, and all are expected to become excellent blockers because they know that the concepts require them to be so.
"Regard your soldiers as your children, and they will follow you into the deepest valley. Look upon them as your own beloved sons, and they will stand by you even unto death" - Chapter 10, verse 25
But perhaps Belichick's greatest attribute is that he treats every player who comes through the doors to Gillette Stadium with respect.  He doesn't play favorites - though one could be inclined to believe that he has a soft spot for safeties, given his penchant for carrying an excessive number of them on his roster - and sees a way to incorporate a players' skill set into a game plan.

Every player counts, and all of them have a job - from one to 53 - and he respects his players so much that the ones that end up on his practice squad are typically paid more for their work than what is required by the CBA - and he values their work through the week to get the active roster players ready for Sunday.

Many see him as cold and heartless, releasing players when they cease to be useful in his scheme, but he also understands the big picture that the NFL is a business and the 53 players that give his team the best chance at success are the ones that stay - and people who think he's got a heart of stone don't realize the anguish he goes through when forced to make a tough decision.

Former players universally have nothing but kind things to say for Belichick, and the sentiments are reciprocated. Players around the league want to play for him, but not all can - and he understands that. There are good players that wouldn't be able to pick up the concept-driven offense and good players for whom the defensive strategy escapes them...

...which is one reason why he rarely signs the big name receiver, pass rusher or cornerback when all of Patriots' nation is up in arms about one of them being available, not that they wouldn't get it, but all you have to do is think back to names like Chad Ochocinco and Albert Haynesworth to realize that many times, the roster spot and resulting cap hit are most times not worth the risk.

Those were expensive lessons, and mistakes that still resonate in Foxborough as their inability to pick up the team philosophy is just one of many reasons why the G.M. Belichick isn't inclined to move on a top free agent, even if cap space isn't an issue - Darrelle Revis being an exception to that rule, but at $7 million was a relatively inexpensive rental for one season and a very appropriate bridge spanning the gap created by losing Aqib Talib in free agency...

...as Belichick knew that he had his freakish safety corps almost completed and his front seven approaching dominance, setting the stage for a big nickle defense that leads the NFL in points allowed, is second against the run and second in the NFL in sacks, all of which supports a thin cornerback position.

So, in accordance with the Art of War, Bill Belichick not only knows his opponent, but also knows his team and exactly what he has to work with, getting the most out of his players and limiting the effectiveness of his foe going hand-in-hand. There are many reasons why the Dark Master is regarded the best football coach of his generation, and perhaps ever, but if one makes themselves familiar with The Art of War, perhaps Belichick would be better understood.
If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle." - Chapter III, verse 18

Friday, November 27, 2015

The Loyalists - Jake And Mike Tackle The Pass Catchers, Denver's Defense

Every week, two of our bloggers pick each others brains like a couple of zombie baboons - today it's Jacob Bertram from Gamegents.com and Michael Hamm from Foxborough Free Press serving up questions for each other in advance of the New England Patriots' Sunday night showdown with the Denver Broncos...

The Broncos' lead the league in sacks with 34, their linebackers and safeties accounting for 23 of that total. Given how the Bills battered Brady by bringing blitz after blitz from the second level and their defensive backfield, should we expect Brady to take the same manner of punishment from Denver?

Jacob: I never expect this team to see the same problem week after week. One more week of all the offensive line unit being together, including the return of Tre Jackson and possibly a return of Seabass to left tackle, should help the protection issues. That being said, James White is going to have to continue being solid in blitz pickup, and Brady is going to have to get rid of the ball quickly. With Amendola possibly out Sunday, either Chris Harper or possibly Keyshawn Martin will have to be that go to guy. That is a very big step to take.
Amendola has been ruled out for Sunday night

Do you assume this week that Malcolm Butler will draw Demarious Thomas or will he see more of Emanuel Sanders, with Ryan and McCourty handling Thomas?

Mike: The damage done to the Patriots through the air - or the lack thereof - has been fairly consistant this season. The opposition's top receiving threat has been more or less shut down and their number two has had limited success - neither really making a mark on the game, so I'm not so sure that either Thomas or Sanders will have the impact on this game, no matter the matchup.

That said, I do expect it to work out just as you have asked, with pretty much the same results as any other game - but in every other game, the opposition has turned to their third and fourth pass catchers, usually a tight end or running back, to inflict damage underneath. Look for plenty of wheels and delayed screens to Hillman and Anderson, with some jailbreak screens targeting Sanders. Their success on these plays will be directly related to how mobile Osweiler is in the pocket.

Owen Daniels is a name to become familiar with. He killed the Patriots in the pattern while a member of the Baltimore Ravens and is having a good year in Denver.

The Broncos' running game has managed to hit 100 yards in only four of their ten games this season, averaging just 53 yards in those games. In contrast, for the games in which they have topped the century mark, their average is a whopping 157 yards per game, including a 170 yard effort against Chicago last Sunday. Against the Patriots top-rated run defense, which Broncos' running game shows up?

Jacob: With Brock Osweiler playing over the injured Peyton Manning this Sunday, I do expect the Patriots defense to sell out on the run and trust their corners and safeties in coverage. Forcing Brock to have to throw the ball early and often, should be a recipe for success. I do believe Anderson and Hillman will be held in check and the Broncos will need to go to the air to consistently move the ball. It will fall upon the arm of Brock in only his second start to beat the Patriots.

If both Amendola and Dobson are unable to suit up this Sunday, will the Patriots be forced to sign a free agent or will they rely in what is already in house?

Mike: This scenario reminds me of when the Patriots went into the 2013 AFC Championship game in Denver, when they had just one healthy starting pass catcher, Julian Edelman, to go along journeyman Austin Collie and a clearly hobbled Dobson, with Michael Hoomanawanui their starting tight end - and they still had an opportunity in the fourth quarter to make a game of it.

The difference this time is that they have Rob Gronkowski at tight end along with Scott Chandler, and on the outside they have Keyshawn Martin and Chris Harper to flank Brandon LaFell. If the Patriots are going to make any sort of a move, I think it would be to bring up Joseph Fauria from the practice squad, so that they can run something perverted like an airborne jumbo package to tax the lack of size in the Broncos' secondary.

Imagine if you will: 6' 6" Gronkowski, 6' 7" Fauria, 6' 8" Chandler and 6' 3" LaFell flooding the underneath zone with one of them penetrating the seam. That could open up a lot of room for Martin, Harper and running back James White. (Note: The Patriots put Dobson on the IR and brought blocking tight end Asante Cleveland up from the practice squad. They have also ruled out Amendola for Sunday night.)

Denver's secondary hasn't allowed a 300 yard passer all season - not even close to it - and their run defense ranks second in the NFL, allowing just 3.5 yards per carry to opposing backs.  The teams that have been most successful against the Broncos this season have one thing in common: They ran the ball and kept running it, regardless of initial success or failure. Do the Patriots have what it takes to gain that 3.5 yard average?

Jacob: I think the Patriots might have no choice but to have a heavy run game plan on Sunday. With Brady short on weapons, their best bet will be to have success on the ground to set up the play action. I don't think Brady dropping back 50 times to throw it to Harper and Martin will do much good against that secondary. Blount and White need to find success on the ground. Which also means the slowly coming back to health offensive line probably needs to have their best game of the season. It will be a struggle, but they need to get the run game moving effectively on game day

Do you see Scott Chandler's role increasing over the last six weeks of the season with the Patriots short on pass catchers?

Mike: You know, I've been disappointed in Chandler's role on the offense, but it isn't all his fault. The play calling on plays that are designed to go to him are of the fade route variety and along the sidelines.  The fade routes have been a disaster for the offense all season, and Chandler is best when running up the seam and on the intermediate crossers.

In goal to go situations, the Patriots have been much more successful with the wheel routes to the backs and on the crossers in the end zone. I don't think there is any question that Chandler needs to have a bigger role in the pattern, but McDaniels needs to be a little more diverse in his play calling to free him up. If he wants jump balls in the end zone, they need to be along the end line, not fades into the corners.

To read all about the Patriots from an old-school twist, be sure to follow us on Foxborough Free Press and on twitter at @ffpblogger, and for a fresh, modern view of the team go to Gamegents.com and follow Jacob on twitter as well at @gamegentsdotcom !

Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Safeties Play Key Role In Patriots Rugged Win Over Bills

Patriots corners Logan Ryan (26) and Malcolm Butler (21) frustrated Buffalo's receivers all evening
The New England Patriots have one of the deepest safety corps in the National Football League, and on Monday night, they all showed up.

Short on cornerbacks and facing a Buffalo Bills team with a plethora of speedy weapons and a dangerously mobile quarterback, Patriots' head ball coach Bill Belichick called on his blue liners to help out in coverage - and while it wasn't always aesthetically pleasing to the milk and cookies crowd, the football purists saw a game for the ages...

...a brutal struggle between division rivals in which the undefeated world champions dug deep - both into their guts and their depth chart - to grind out a 20-13 win over the Buffalo Bills at Gillette Stadium and in front of a National audience who witnessed two defensive savants collide in one of the hardest hitting games of the season.

Patrick Chung is a regular at the strong safety position, playing in the box and taking on running backs and tight ends, but left those guys to seldom used fellow safety Tavon Wilson and linebacker Dont'a Hightower in favor of handling wide receivers, while reserve safeties Nate Ebner and Brandon King flexed their considerable muscles on special teams...

...and free safeties Devin McCourty and Duron Harmon protected the deep third of the field, playing over the top of their besieged compatriots, McCourty perfectly playing a deep ball to Buffalo running back LeSean McCoy in the end zone, knocking the ball from his grip and forcing the Bills to attempt a field goal, one that Bills' kicker Dan Carpenter bounced off the upright, setting up the Patriots' offense in good field position for their first touchdown.

It wasn't perfect by any stretch of the imagination - what with Buffalo receiver Chris Hogan breaking free for big chunks of yardage, and Chung getting away with what appeared to be an obvious pass interference and Butler actually being flagged for one that was just as obvious - but they made enough plays to get off the field on third down, holding the Bills to an abysmal 3 of 15 on such occasions.

The New England defense came into Monday night's game riding a streak of four consecutive games holding opponents rushing games under 100 yards and holding opposing passers under 300 yards in seven out of their previous nine games - and they managed to extend both.

Buffalo's fourth ranked running game got close, gaining 94 yards - but it took 30 carries to reach that mark, and were it not for McCoy breaking loose for a 27-yard touchdown early in the second half, the Bill's output of 3.1 yards per carry would have been much worse, as Hightower, fellow linebacker Jerod Mayo and defensive end Jabaal Sheard combined to keep Bills' runners between the tackles.

Bills' quarterback Tyrod Taylor finished the game 20 of 36 for 233 yards, but was just 13 of 24 for a paltry 135 yards before the Patriots went up by two scores and forced them to the air late in the game, as corners Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan were spectacular in coverage once again, Butler on Buffalo's top threat Sammy Watkins while Ryan concentrated on possession man Robert Woods, neither having any significant impact on the game.

Things really weren't much better for the Patriots' offense as, in fact, they missed on more opportunities than the Bills' offense did, causing the score to be not as lopsided as it could have been.

New England quarterback Tom Brady also completed 20 passes, but took 39 attempts to get there with a half dozen thrown into the turf in the general direction of a receiver and he also had a ball tipped for another red zone interception, all while taking more hits than an acid freak at a Grateful Dead concert, his one touchdown throw coming on a designed wheel route to running back James White who broke a tackle on the sideline to finish a 20 yard catch and run...

...who also scored on a six yard power blast off right tackle halfway through the third period that proved to be the winning points. In all, White averaged 7 yards per carry and 16 yards per reception in spot duty, while lead back LeGarrette Blount - after being stymied for just four yards in the first half - broke out for 52 yards in the four minute offense in the second half.

In all, the Patriots averaged four yards per carry against the Bills', something that they are going to have to increasingly rely on with the injury situation faced by New England, a situation that got incrementally worse as the game wore on.

Fragile speedster Aaron Dobson appeared to hurt his ankle on his one catch for the evening, but the bigger blow was to Amendola, who put up Edelman-like numbers for the second game in a row, but pulled up lame with what the Patriots are calling a knee injury. Amendola is scheduled for a Tuesday MRI, and while the obvious hope is that he's suffered just a sprain, the fact alone that he's even having the procedure speaks to him missing some games.

What that means to the offense remains to be seen, but if the Patriots can go forward improvising with their pass catching corps like they did with the safeties improvising as corners, they should be just fine until their fallen start to return...

In the end, however, this game was all about defense with the Patriots' criminally underrated unit battering Buffalo's Taylor into submission, sacking him twice and roughing him up on a half a dozen more occasions, a hit by Patriots' linebacker Rob Ninkovich reducing him to tossing Peyton Manning-like ducks down the field during crunch time, grimacing with each movement of his passing shoulder.

There is no reason to expect anything but a similar product this coming Sunday evening in Denver, where is will be Brock Osweiler tossing the rock while the aforementioned Manning gets treatment for his various ailments...

...and with the Patriots receiving corps eerily resembling the unit that Belichick fielded in the 2013 AFC Championship game in Denver - one that had just two healthy receivers and no tight ends of any mention - another tough-it-out game should be expected if New England is to remain undefeated and clinch the AFC East.

But this time around the Patriots have one Rob Gronkowski healthy, a decent power running game and a top rated defensive unit to fall back on if all else fails - but these are the New England Patriots, and you don't hear the word "fail" very often when considering what they can bring to the table, be it regular starters or the next man up.


Sunday, November 22, 2015

The Loyalists - Jake And Mike Talking Run Defense, Pass Catchers

Every week, two of our bloggers pick each others brains like a couple of zombie baboons - today it's Jacob Bertram from Gamegents.com and Michael Hamm from Foxborough Free Press serving up questions for each other in advance of the New England Patriots' Monday night showdown with the Buffalo Bills...


The Patriots have the number one rush defense in the National Football League, allowing just 88 yards per game on average, and it has been more than a month since they surrendered more than 100 yards in a game. With Shady McCoy now fully healthy and all of Buffalo's offensive weapons together for the first time in that same time frame, will the Bills snap the Patriots' streak and rush for more than 100 yards?
You can't stop Gronk, you can only hope to contain him


Jacob: Lesean McCoy rushed for 89 yards in the week two loss against the Patriots. That was with them going down three scores very early. Rookie Karlos Williams is questionable this week, but when healthy he is a dangerous weapon. I do believe if the Bills choose to run, they could break the 100 yard mark. The smarter game plan would be to attack the Patriots 3rd and 4th corners and exploit them in the passing game. If they spend all day handing it off, they might not score enough to keep it close. 

With Jules and Dion both sidelined for the regular season, who do you think will receive the most targets this week against Buffalo? Moving forward?

Mike: I see LaFell picking up a bigger role in the offense and expect to see Amendola's touches rise as well. Those two had a fantastic playoff run together as their foes concentrated on trying to stop Gronkowski and Edelman, and left LaFell and Amendola single covered - and Brady exploited their matchups. 

I'm actually looking at Chris Harper as picking up the slack for Edelman, however, as he is similarly shifty while Keyshawn Martin takes over some of Lewis' responsibility on the screens.

Brady and the Patriots' offense hung 450 passing yards on the Bills in week two and ran for just 56 - do you anticipate a more balanced attack, considering Buffalo's run defense is merely middle of the pack in yards per carry allowed?

Jacob: Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman were both healthy and killing the Bills in week 2. With both of them on the mend I do expect the Patriots to go to Blount more often to set up the play action. I do expect more Chandler as well in the two tight end set, involved in the pass game, and in run blocking. Without Julian we will see the offense evolve to adapt. 

Stephon Gilmore has stated that the Bills have a plan to take Gronk out of the game. Is this possible and how will they attempt to do it?

Mike: Gronkowski is the pass catcher who suffers the most when the Patriots are short on weapons as teams think they can concentrate on him with double teams and making the other receivers beat them. Thing is, every team has said that they have the solution to the Gronkowski problem, yet he always seems to affect the game, particularly in the second half. 

Gilmore can talk all he wants, but Gronkowski has physics on his side, and the laws of nature can be skirted for only so long. Double him, triple him, hit him at the line, release him into a tight zone...it doesn't matter because he will eventually break open, especially if the running game gets going and Brady has the play action to set up the linebackers and safeties.

With Edelman out, the Patriots are left with pass catchers who average more than 15 yards per reception in LaFell, Gronkowski and Martin. Do you see a change in philosophy with the offense that finds Brady splitting the intermediate zone and picking up chunks of yardage or will these receivers have to scale back their routes to fill a need in the short passing game?

Jacob: I think when it comes to the offense, Tom needs that short out that he can hit quick. Whether it's the slot guy or the running back. As you said, excluding Amendola, the remaining pass catchers are averaging 15 yards or more per catch. This makes me think we will see a slight increase in down the field passing. Just by average, if Lafell is involved more, that means more passing outside the numbers.

Gronk is going to see an increase in double coverage, so I would like to see them get creative at the line of scrimmage to increase the chance of him getting open. Keyshawn Martin, once he is healthy, intrigues me in Julian's role. Of course I'm looking for James White to take a step forward as well.
All in all, I do think we will see an increase in down the field passing. Maybe we will also see more of an attempt to stay balanced with the run and pass.

Going forward, what is your take on the running back position and who will get the majority of the third down snaps?

Mike: White will continue with the third down snaps, and even though we may not see him breaking off big gainers, he has solid hands out of the backfield and, even more importantly with the offensive line still in flux, he is exceptional at picking up the blitz in pass protection.


As the line starts to get players back, I think you are going to see left guard Shaq Mason evolve into a part-time fullback, leading the power running game and opening holes for LeGarrette Blount as the lead back. The thing about Blount is that he has decent hands out of the backfield as well, and we may see him utilized a bit more in that capacity as well, even on third down as he is more of a running threat on the trap draw.

To read all about the Patriots from an old-school twist, be sure to follow us on Foxborough Free Press and on twitter at @ffpblogger, and for a fresh, modern view of the team go to Gamegents.com and follow Jacob on twitter as well at @gamegentsdotcom !

Saturday, November 21, 2015

Butler's Physical Play, Steady Improvement Demanding Respect

If anyone had questions about whether Malcolm Butler is a true number one cornerback, last Sunday evening's performance against Odell Beckham and the New York Giants should have answered them with a resounding "yes"...

In fact, anyone who has had any criticism at all of the sophomore phenom out of West Alabama University has had to at least soften their stance on the kid that linebacker Jamie Collins has appropriately dubbed "Strap" - a respectful moniker that suggests Butler's penchant for strapping down receivers.

In Butler's first season as a starter, Patriots' head ball coach Bill Belichick has not been shy about exposing his second-greatest project to the best pass catcher the opposition has to offer (Tom Brady will always be the "Project" that Belichick is best known for developing)  - and the results have not always been pretty, but his improvement has been steady and he's earning the respect of his foe, no small task for a small school cat who is three years older than a typical second year guy.

Unless you've been living under a rock, you know of his heroics in the Super Bowl - but the humble Butler shook off any notion of being part of Super Bowl lore, suggesting that he didn't want his football legacy tied solely to that, rather, that his legacy would begin with his performance in the Super Bowl and evolve into whatever his destiny is.

The man who had enough respect for the history of the game that he wept openly as his name was being carved into the stone tablets of football legend, Butler accepted the key to his hometown and a wicked nice truck from quarterback Tom Brady, but once the trophy was delivered and the euphoria over a world championship mellowed into fond recollection, Butler was just a dude that played well on the biggest stage the sport has to offer, and was still essentially a first-year player with a limited sample size for a resume.

Many in the media and the Patriots' fan base questioned head ball coach Bill Belichick for not going after a top corner in the draft or free agency, instead bringing in the likes of oft-burned Bradley Fletcher and former falcon Robert McClain to offer a little resistance to Butler, but he outplayed everyone in training camp to earn the top billing.

And good thing, too, as McClain was grabbier than a teenager on a first date and Fletcher couldn't cover a body at the morgue, so the Patriots turned to former 49er and Raider Tarell Brown along with a myriad of rookies to round out their depth chart in camp, hoping that one of them would rise up and grasp the corner opposite Butler...

...but Brown hit the skids with a chronic foot injury and rookie seventh round pick Daryll Roberts broke a bone in his wrist, leaving just Butler and third-year nickle corner Logan Ryan on the outside, while having no choice but to hand the nickle job to undrafted rookie Justin Coleman, then picked up inconsistent big corner Rashaan Melvin from the Ravens to fill out the depth chart.

Of course, where the anxiety came for the media and fans was from the Patriots allowing both Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner to move on, with fears of the pass defense falling from a middle of the pack unit with those two aboard to one that more resembled Swiss cheese squarely on their brains - but the rankings really haven't changed.

The why's and how's are more a matter of the safety corps rounding into one of the top units in the NFL, loaded with versatility to support just about any game plan that Belichick could conjure.

The talisman for the three-safety "Big Nickle" defense is free safety Duron Harmon growing into the centerfielder's job, freeing up fellow blue-liner Devin McCourty to be the Big Nickle - or rover, if you will - rotating anywhere that needs attention on the second or third levels, which allows strong safety Patrick Chung to support the box in a like manner, covering tight ends while he's at it.

Ryan has certainly been a beneficiary of the philosophy, as Harmon increasingly tends to play strong side to Ryan's assignment, and sometimes with McCourty reducing down to take the slot. It's a plan that has been in place for a few years now, as Belichick's early round "reaches" in the defensive backfield needed only experience in his system with each other to properly jell...

...but what is making all of this easier - in fact, what is making it possible at all - is Butler's penchant for jumping in the receiver's hip pocket and staying there through the route progression. From the very beginning of the season, Belichick has left Butler on an island with the opposition's top receiving target, and while it has been trying at times, the trial-by-fire approach is starting to pay off.

Butler is a hockey player in football gear. He loves the physical play and seeing him mix it up with a receiver is more commonplace than with just about any other corner out there, the latest example being last Sunday as he stood toe-to-toe with New York Giants' star receiver Odell Beckham, each punking the other after the play, an extension of the fist fight that occurred as the two scrapped down the field.

That kind of physical play has gotten many an average cornerback in deep dutch with the refs and with their coaches, and Butler is no exception - but the flags are just another learning tool for him to incorporate into his body of work and, sooner rather than later, he will have earned the respect of the refs and the flags will become fewer and further between.

Because respect is the only currency that means anything on the playing field. It doesn't matter how much money your contract is worth, how long you've been in the league or what you feel that you deserve, either you earn the respect of your opponent and the officials or you don't - and if you don't, the flags continue to fly and the opposing quarterback continues to bait you...

...and while the opposing quarterbacks still pick on Butler, that can be chalked up to his thus-far shallow body of work, but he's gotten the attention of Beckham and the national press is starting to chime in, so it's only a matter of time before Butler is known more for building upon his epic start than the start itself.

And that was a tough act to follow.

Thursday, November 19, 2015

Is Deep Ball In Play For Patriots With Edelman Out?

No, you weren't seeing things on Sunday evening, Tom Brady was airing it out. The question is, was that a knee-jerk reaction to losing his most reliable receiver, or part of the game plan against the atrocious New York Giants' secondary?

The answer is probably somewhere in between, which seems weird.

Weird, because Brady was working behind a mix-matched offensive line that is in such tatters that their starting center from last season is now their starting right tackle and a guy that was cut, resigned to the practice squad and elevated to the active roster in the space of two months is protecting Brady's 38 year old blind side...
Gronkowski is the Patriots' deep threat

Never mind that the prudent game plan was to attack a Giants' secondary ranked dead last in the league at will, the Patriots instead sought balance through three quarters of the game, a 25 to 20 mix between the pass and the run that had a net gain of just 17 points in that time span - but once the game hit crunch time in the fourth quarter, Brady let the football fly with 17 pass plays compared to only three running plays.

Losing Edelman to a broken bone in his foot took away one of the biggest parts of the Patriots' offense, something that had already been hindered by the loss of running back Dion Lewis for the season the week before: Yards after the catch.

With Lewis, the Patriots had an elusive ankle breaker who could take a screen pass or catch a ball in the flat and make people miss more times than not. With Edelman, they had an elusive space-creator who was one of the toughest short-area covers in the league, but what made them both special in this offense was their ability to create yards after the catch - and now the perception is that's all but gone.

Sure, there are other players and the Patriots have always adopted the "Next Man Up" Philosophy, but the fact of the matter is that if those players weren't the best that the Patriots had, they wouldn't have been starting, nor would they have been getting as many touches as they were.

This is to take nothing away from running backs like James White and Brandon Bolden, nor receivers like Danny Amendola or Brandon LaFell, but they are different types of players, and most likely will not enjoy the same success that Lewis and Edelman enjoyed in their roles - which means that defenses can concentrate more on their pass rush getting to Brady without having to concern themselves with that quick safety valve...

...something that we all saw was frustrating Brady on Sunday evening. The short routes that normally would have gone to Edelman or Lewis weren't available to him consistently, as the Giants went to a zone look to take advantage of not having to man-up on either of the missing warriors - causing him to hold the ball longer than he would otherwise, finally taking to lofting the ball down the field when he did get man looks over the top.
Amendola is more like Welker rather than Edelman

The results were mixed, as Brady went downtown eight times, completing one to tight end Rob Gronkowski for a 76 yard touchdown and one to LaFell, who came down with a contested 54 yard gain - but misfiring on six other balls, including one that should have been intercepted on their final drive, taking three sacks in the process - but it also opened up underneath stuff enough for Brady to target Amendola for short gainers to set up the winning score.

The deep ball really hasn't been a staple of the Patriots' offense since a guy named Randy Moss was running underneath Brady's offerings some eight years ago, relying instead on the talents of pass catchers like Wes Welker, Edelman, Kevin Faulk, Shane Vereen and Lewis instead to "dink and dunk" efficiently down the field, which opened up the intermediate and deep zones to take occasional shots...

...but now without being able to count on Edelman or Lewis, is the deep ball going to become more prevalent to open up the underneath stuff instead of the other way around?

Well, as it is, on throws over 20 yards from the line of scrimmage, Brady is 23 of 47 this season - just a shade under 50%, which actually puts him right around tops in the NFL, with the majority of his deep balls going toward Gronkowski and LaFell - but it remains to be seen if that level of success continues when the defense doesn't have Edelman and Lewis to worry about.

The running game may be just as important to opening up the underneath routes, as a successful day running the ball tends to draw the linebackers and safeties closer to the line of scrimmage and opens up the zone between the second and third levels - so it is more likely that the Patriots remain steadfast in their philosophy that it takes a wide open play book to be successful, which will force the opposing defense to defend the entire field.

For certain, the Patriots have a good nucleus of players that the defense has to pay attention to in Gronkowski up the seam and on crossers and LaFell outside the numbers and between the hash marks down the middle, so it's simply a matter of opening the playbook up to take advantage of what the rest of the pass catching corps offers.

Tight end Scott Chandler could become more involved, and Aaron Dobson possesses the deep speed to take the top off of a defense, but it is a trifecta of Amendola, third-year speedster Keyshawn Martin and recently promoted Chris Harper that hold the key for the continued success of the passing game.

Many look at Amendola as the obvious 'replacement" for Edelman in the Patriots' offense, but he's not that kind of player. Amendola is more along the speed of former Patriot Wes Welker who made up for lack of deep speed and short-area quickness with toughness and great hands - in fact, Amendola may have the most reliable hands on the offense - but doesn't cause enough separation at the top of his route to gain a lot of yardage on his own...

...Martin does, however, and should be the player to pick up some of the slack on the jailbreak screens that made Lewis so exciting to watch, while Harper showed in preseason that he has the fluid hips and a dancer's footwork to break open at the top of his routes and displays a determination to do something with the ball once he has it in his hands, earning the moniker "Poor man's DeSean Jackson" from opposing scouts while in college.

This is not to mean that Harper is going to explode onto the scene the way Jackson did, as he doesn't possess that level of deep speed, but he is elusive after the catch and has tremendous hands - and he even made the Patriots' initial 53 man roster out of camp after catching 15 balls for 150 yards in the preseason, but was cut after the first game and landed back on the practice squad, giving New England's corners fits in practice.

Together with the tough running of LeGarrette Blount and the bonus touches of passing back James White, it appears that New England can still field a pass catching corps that can cause the defense to have to defend the entire field, and not concentrate on just one or two players which would eventually cause the Patriots to scale back what is probably the most diverse play book in the NFL.

So, there really isn't much reason for the Patriots to change up the way they do things on offense, particularly given that Belichick is the master at desgining game plans that take advantage of his players' individual strength, and while none of these guys bring the same game that Edelman or Lewis did, they still must be reckoned with and accounted for.