Patriots Defense: A Case Of Playing Not To Lose Rather Than Playing To Win

What is the difference between playing not to lose and playing to win?

According to sports psychologists, players, coaches and even entire teams perform differently when they view an opponent in two distinctly different ways. First, when a team views the opposition as a threat, they tense up and more times than not, the choke - but when they view their opposition as a challenge, they are much more likely to achieve their goals.

That said, despite the team's 2-1 record after three weeks, the New England Patriots' defense has been playing not to lose.

After a rough start, Marsh has started to have an impact

A study of soccer players who were facing a scenario of having to make a penalty kick to tie a game choked 40% of the time, while the same players who faced making the same kick with the score tied and his team could win with a made shot made the shot 92% of the time - the difference? The pressure of possibly losing the game can be overwhelming, and cause players to do things that they normally wouldn't do.

A similar study looked at basketball players who will consistently shoot above their career average from the free throw line during a tie game vice being up a point or down a point when they shoot well below their average.

"The point is that when athletes are challenged to rise to the occasion, they perform better than when they are threatened not to blow it." says John O'Sullivan of the Changing The Game Project, "Challenged athletes tend to focus on the prize for success, while threatened athletes focus on the consequences of failure."

Could it be that the New England Patriots' defense is struggling to start the 2017 season because they are playing not to lose?

It would make sense, given the number of new players they are trying to incorporate into a unit that is also missing key members to injury - in other words, they are hanging by a thread until reinforcements arrive in the form of patched up wounded and the newbies demonstrate a working knowledge of the philosophies and playbook.

The latter will take some time, but the new guys are integrating and are becoming more of a factor each week - especially the pass rushers, rookie Deatrich Wise and former-Seahawk Cassius Marsh - but the former could come true on Sunday when the Patriots host the Carolina Panthers, as linebacker Dont'a Hightower and corner Eric Rowe are expected to return to the lineup.

Whatever the case and in the interim, the Patriots are playing like they are in a prevent defense - not from lack of interest or effort, but from design, and when that happens - when a team is playing not to lose - they yield too many yards and too many points unnecessarily, and it has a trickle down effect on the entire team.

Now, the Patriots have never been an aggressive defensive team. They are disciplined to do the one or two tasks that they are assigned to them as one of 11 pieces in a jigsaw puzzle - and when the other ten players do likewise, the result is a stout unit that plays the run and the pass equally well, because each player is complementing the others with their discipline.

For instance, on the interior of the defensive line, the job of the nose tackle is to take on double teams, which serves to keep a guard from climbing to the second level to harass linebackers and open up options for a running back, should he slip through the containment, but also allows said linebacker to fill the gap created by the double team...

...while on the edges, the ends are supposed to set a barrier for backs to discourage them from trying to gain the corner, funneling them back toward the interior, where the aforementioned tackles and linebackers are working in tandem to prevent positive gain.

But with Hightower out and former-Jet David Harris seeing no playing time for reasons yet to be unearthed - and in addition to youngsters Elandon Roberts and Harvey Langi logging time on the trainers' table (not to mention strong-side linebacker Shea McClellin on the IR), the linebacking duties have fallen to Kyle Van Noy and whomever is healthy enough to join him at any given moment.

Hell, the Patriots even tried out safety Jordan Richards as a linebacker in the season opener, but his poor angles and sloppy tackling nixed the idea moving forward.

Ordinarily, the Patriots defense aligns in what is known as the Big Nickel, in which a linebacker is sacrificed in order to get a third safety on the field - which is centerfielder Duron Harmon, who seems to be the only player on the defense that hasn't been affected by the youth and injury. When Harmon comes on, strong safety Patrick Chung will reduce down into the box, effectively becoming a coverage linebacker.

This is where things get tricky, as Chung has been horrific in coverage on tight ends - but luckily for him and the rest of the defense, Carolina's Pro Bowl tight end Greg Olsen is out of the lineup and on the IR, leaving only Ed Dickson and his hands of stone at the tight end position, leaving the pass catching duties to tight end-sized wide receivers Kelvin Benjamin (6' 5", 245) and Devin Funchess (6' 4", 230)...

...and also to the rookie garden gnome-sized Swiss army knife Christian McCaffrey, who presents a clear and present danger to secondaries around the league with his elusiveness and sure hands. Listed as a running back, he has been solely a receiver thus far, but one that the Panthers can move around to take advantage of mismatches on linebackers.

Assuredly, the Patriots are not going to give McCaffrey a chance to work against one of the precious few linebackers, so look for cornerback Malcolm Butler to mirror the dynamic rookie, in a move that may prove that Butler is of more value to defensive coordinator Matt Patricia and head ball coach Bill Belichick as a Big Nickel-type coverage safety than as a traditional corner.

Benjamin and Funchess will be dealt with by taller corners Stephon Gilmore and Eric Rowe, while Harmon and fellow safety Devin McCourty patrol the blue line.

The Patriots can afford to be a little more aggressive against the Panthers offense, especially if Hightower does return, because quarterback Cam Newton is playing hurt and has been wildly inaccurate, tossing four interceptions and not completing more than 20 passes in a game so far this season. What's more, he's been sacked ten times in three games, which brings his net passing yardage down to a meager 188 yards per game.

Clearly, the Patriots defense has an opportunity to get right against the Panthers offense, and that means against the running game as well McCaffrey and Jonathan Stewart have combined for 3.6 yards per carry behind an offensive line that, much like the Patriots, are struggling at the tackle position but strong on the interior - even though the Panthers will be missing starting pivot Matt Kalil.

While this defense is hanging on by a thread, in-wait for the positive influx that maturation of newbies and the return of the wounded bring, it has to be remembered that playing not to lose is the only option that Belichick and Patricia have to work with, as being too aggressive without the proper personnel in place could prove even more disastrous than what they are experiencing now.

With Hightower returning, the Patriots should be able to plug the gaps created by the defensive line, while the rotation of Flowers, Wise and Marsh abuse the struggling bookends and egt to Newton, who is hurting and not a mobile as in the past - and while it's unrealistic to assume that Butler will take over for Chung in tight end coverages, this is the type of contest that should give a little less responsibility and maybe allow him to build a little confidence...

...and maybe, just maybe, New England's defense can get untracked and put together a solid game. The effort has been there, as has the will and the desire to play the game to win, and with things getting better on the injury front and with new players becoming more and more acclimated to their roles on the team, perhaps we'll have seen the last of them playing not to lose.

Gap Integrity, Edge-Setting Key For Patriots Defense Against Texans

The Houston Texans are an enigma.

On defense, they possess perhaps one of the best front sevens in the National Football League, yet they can't stop the run when opposing offenses spread them out. They sport a secondary that is so injured that they are being held together with duct tape and prayers, yet they are a top five pass defense unit.

Offensively, their passing game is just plain offensive, ranking dead last in the league and averaging 104 yards per game, being barely outgained by their running game, which would also be in the toilet were it not for a nifty, long touchdown run by their quarterback last week against the Bengals.

So on paper, the New England Patriots' defense should be able to put the beatdown on the Texans in Foxborough this coming Sunday.

Wise (91) and Flowers should be able to get to Watson this Sunday

Hell, they should be able to punch them in the mouth, take their lunch money and stick bubble gum in their hair for good measure - but only if the Patriots play their game, dictating to the Texans' offense instead of falling for the inevitable trickery and unconventional approach that coach Bill O'Brien will try to cook up in order to go blow-for-blow with the powerful Patriots' offense.

Because despite their abysmal play in 2017, the Texans are built to compete against the likes of New England, and the things that they can still do well on both sides of the ball feed directly into what the Patriots struggle with both offensively and defensively.

For example, the Patriots traditionally struggle defending against mobile quarterbacks (Hello, Alex Smith) and give up a frustratingly significant number of first downs to such - and the Texans' just happen to employ a fellow by the name of Deshaun Watson, a rookie who feels pressure in the pocket whether it's there or not, and will tuck the ball and run like a like a pooch that just stole a hot dog at a bar-b-que.

His success ratio after being flushed out of the pocket is hit or miss, but he showed how elusive he can be against Cincinnati last Sunday, weaving through their secondary for a 49 yard touchdown scramble - but he's also been sacked seven times in six quarters of play.  In fact, Texans' quarterbacks have been sacked 13 times in two games, and given the fact that three of their starting offensive linemen have been out of the lineup, that's not too surprising.

New England's top two pass rushers, former Arkansas teammates Trey Flowers and Deatrich Wise, have to be salivating at the prospect of facing such a depleted line, especially given that against the Bengals, the Texans played predominantly with a six-offensive lineman set, sacrificing their tight end play (They were down to a fourth-string tight end anyway) for an extra blocker to try and keep Cincinnati's monstrous pass rush off of Watson, but to no avail as the rookie took several mean shots and is listed as questionable on the Texan's injury report.

But when Watson did find time in the pocket, he was single-minded in targeting DeAndre Hopkins on over half of his throws and used running back Lamar Miller as his safety valve.  Houston was hoping to get wide receiver Will Fuller, who has been inactive due to a broken collarbone, back this week - and he has returned to practice but has already been ruled out for Sunday's game...

...which means that Watson's targets will consist of Hopkins, Miller, tight end Ryan Griffin and wide receivers Bruce Ellington and Braxton Miller - not exactly a Murder's Row of downfield threats, though Griffin returning from the concussion protocol could spell trouble for New England's Patrick Chung, who appears to have lost a step in coverage.

While it shouldn't be a difficult task to generate pressure on Watson, the edge rushers will have to be alert to the Texans' tackles powder-puffing them, allowing them to rush upfield around the pocket, leaving the flat open for both the screen and for Watson to scamper off into.  Like they would against any mobile quarterback, the Patriots will try to keep him in the middle of the field...

...where the Patriots defense could counter by mixing things up a little in their coverages, perhaps playing in their Big Nickel alignment but with cornerback Malcolm Butler playing in the stead of Chung as an impromptu "strong safety".

Butler has benefitted in the past by teams picking on a weaker set of corners opposite him, but now that the team employs bigger corners in Stephon Gilmore and the up-and-coming Eric Rowe, Butler is being exposed by teams that have the edge in mismatches, particularly underneath where he is not always able to fight through pick plays.

Butler brings the wood against the run, is great at sniffing out screens and has elite closing burst, plus he matches up well in size with running backs and has the speed advantage over tight ends - he seems to be more in his element when he sees the play unfold in front of him, and with Jonathan Jones making a case to take over in the slot, it's going to take some finagling to get Butler involved, perhaps at the expense of Chung.

One ploy we could see from the Texans is coach Bill O'Brien taking a page from the Kansas City Chiefs' bag-o-tricks, implementing a series of shuffle passes to get the ball to receivers crossing the face of Watson, which the Chiefs were moderately successful doing.  The Texans don't have the overall talent like Kansas City does, but they will have Allen back this week and Braxton Miller could be a candidate for a little trickery...

...Ellington as well, though those are some mighty big trees for the 5' 9" speedster to have to navigate through, especially coming off of injury.  Ellington is pure smooth hell on the bubble and counter screens, however, which feeds right into the game plan that the Texans will have to employ to have any chance of generating enough points to make a game out of it.

The Texans switched from veteran quarterback and stationary target Tom Savage midway through their season opening loss to Jacksonville and inserted the mobile rookie in hopes of being able to generate offense, but it has been a work in progress, with the progress being marked with baby steps.

Given the injury situation in Houston and the likelihood that New England comes into the game relatively healthy on defense, holding the Texans down like both Jacksonville and Cincinnati did could be a big morale booster for a defensive unit that has it's doubters.

Much of that doubt comes from the communications issues the secondary had against the Chiefs that resulted in three chunk plays that turned a tight game into a laugher that Kansas City took advantage of - and even though that same secondary gave up 350 yards to Drew Brees and the Saints last Sunday, the majority of those yards came in the second half with New England leading comfortably.

So, in a nut shell, Houston must attack the Patriots' defense by establishing a running game, which would bring Chung (or whoever is playing the Big Nickel) up into the box, then targeting Miller and rookie back D'Onta Foreman in the short passing game to both spread the field horizontally and keep the heat off of Watson - then they can use the play action to pick and choose their shots downfield.

Part of the game plan should include some of the aforementioned shuffle passes, though with an emphasis on the running game being a given, having seldom-used veteran run stuffer David Harris in the middle of the defense may mitigate that type of play with his instincts and experience.

The key is for the Patriots to stay in their gaps up front, don't fall for the powder-puff approach from the tackles and keep Watson inside the hashmarks.

It goes without saying that this will be a game where the Texans' defense will have to hold the Patriots well below their 31.5 points per game average to have any chance of winning, and we'll cover that in the next piece...

The Curious Case Of Malcolm Butler

When you see Malcolm Butler facing at a ninety-degree angle to his receiver, slightly crouched and looking for a fight like Rumble McSkirmish in a football helmet, he is in his comfort zone.

No, not zone coverage, even though he's excellent in that capacity, but the happy place that all cornerbacks strive to find, a coverage technique that fits their athleticism, speed and natural movement.  Some corners find it in punking receivers off the line and riding in their hip pocket through the route, while others are more comfortable playing Farmer Jones in working a certain section of the field, while still others combine techniques to reach coverage nirvana.

Butler belongs to the latter, as he fuses press-man and bail techniques to arrive at a hybrid coverage known as "Press Bail" or more commonly known to those in the profession as "Catch-man".

As we already know, "Press-man" is when a corner is right up in the receiver's face, exchanging punches at the snap of the ball and jostling with the receiver through his route progression, while the "Bail" technique presents the cornerback at seven to eight yards off the line of scrimmage, "catching" the route as it develops and applying a natural barrier to the receiver snapping off his break on a standard 5-step-drop route.

The corner sets up in a "press" look, then backs off and angling his body to face the linebackers, allowing him to shuffle his feet rather than back peddling and making it so that his hips are already open and poised to either pivot and run with the receiver downfield or to plant and drive on the ball if the route is cut off, the idea being to allow the receiver the sideline, where Butler can use it as a defacto helper over the top.

So...what's the point?

Standing just north of a garden gnome but with the suddenness and springs of a Jack-in-the-box, Butler has been covering receivers in the National Football League on a full-time basis since his heroic fourth quarter in Super Bowl 49, when he covered a much taller Jermaine Kearse for much of the second half, then stepped in front of Ricardo Lockett to seal the championship with the greatest interception in football history.

Ever since, Butler has been seen as the golden child in the Patriots' secondary, and has been a top-rated corner by just about every football publication in existence - but suddenly, it seems Butler's technique is in question, having given up big plays along the sideline, one where it looked like he wasn't even trying, and a couple of bad touchdowns.

For his part, Butler is owning the struggles and has vowed that he has higher standards than what we've seen thus far in preseason, but the thing is, it has nothing to do with technique as the West Alabama product is technically sound.

Against the Texans, Butler had two plays that on first glance appears as if he had lapses in concentration, but on the deep sideline grab by Bruce Ellington, replays show him latching onto Butler's jersey as the ball was approaching and Butler was about to make the pivot to look for the ball, giving the ball a split second to reach Ellington, and Butler had no play, as seen in sequence to the left and below..

...where we see Butler in perfect "Catch-man" technique, bailing to the inside, then in perfect position while tracking the ball, and then with Ellington with a handful of Butler's jersey.

But on the touchdown pass to Jalen Strong, Butler looked to be expecting a fade to the corner and was playing straight bail to the outside, and when Strong suddenly cut to the inside, Butler lost his footing, resulting in an easy six.

There is no denying that Malcolm Butler has everything it takes to be a cornerback in the National Football League.  He can play press-man, off-man and zone in halves, quarters or anyway you want to play it.  But he's not a shut down guy that can play on an island because he's not consistent with his jam at the line of scrimmage, particularly against small, shifty receivers.

And therein lies the issue.  He's an aggressive corner, that can't consistently lock onto receivers with quick moves off the line, and he's simply not big enough to handle the bigger receivers on the boundary if they take away his outside leverage.  That's a problem in the slot as well, because it is usually populated by fleet-footed receivers.

In fact, according to research at Pro Football Focus, Butler allows an opposing passer rating of 128.5 when manning the slot, as opposed to dime corner Justin Coleman (39.5) and Safety Patrick Chung (87.8) in the Big Nickel role.  Even so, Butler was the publication's fifth-best corner in 2016, illustrating just how good he is on the perimeter.

Butler is at his best, elite even, at off-man coverages.  In off-man, he can recover quickly if a receiver gives him a double move or a feign to the inside, and it also helps him against bigger receivers as he can play bail technique and use the sidelines as blind side help, allows him to see the pattern unfold in front of him, and gives him plenty of room to plant his foot and react to a ball in front of him...

...because what sets Butler apart is his recognition and closing burst, things that he can't necessarily use in press-man.

So what Butler is, is an off-man, bail-technique corner - a technique that obviously works well for him on the outside, where the Patriots also have Stephon Gilmore and Eric Rowe, both standing 6' 1" and both heavily skilled as boundary corners.  What New England doesn't have is an effective slot corner, as their most dependable one, Logan Ryan, left in free agency.

How much of an impact that has and how the Patriots choose to handle it remains to be seen, whether it means keeping Coleman around, promoting second-year corner Jonathan Jones to the 53-man roster, or simply playing the in Big Nickel the majority of the time - but the slot is the one unknown in a secondary full of talent, so watch for Patriots' opponents to target whoever's playing there until it's proven they have that question answered.

Starters Hammer Lions In Dominating Patriots' Performance

The third preseason game on the National Football League schedule is traditionally what the media has dubbed a "Dress Rehearsal" for the regular season, but don't call it that around Bill Belichick.

"I don't think you can compare this game to a regular season game, though I've heard people try to do that." the sometimes-virulent head ball coach of the New England Patriots said last year before their third preseason game. "In terms of game-planning and strategy, and what we see in the regular season compared to what we see in the third preseason game, I don't think you're in the same universe."

Chris Hogan hauls in a 32 yard TD from Brady

"We're still running our basic plays." the Dark Master continued, "Our opponents, we'd expect, would run their basic plays."

Assuming this is true, God help the rest of the NFL when the Patriots open up their playbook.

In a mere fourteen minutes of work and running their "basic" plays on offense, quarterback Tom Brady and his starting unit had their way with the Detroit Lions' top defense, scoring on four straight possessions to start the game and racing out to a 24 point lead before Belichick decided he'd shown the football world enough to scare the living bejesus out of them...

...benching Brady and the most of the starters on both sides of the ball in what eventually evolved into a come-from-behind 30-28 Patriots' victory, a last second Stephen Gostkowski field goal providing the winning margin at Ford Field in downtown Detroit on Friday evening.

So dominating and brutish were the Patriots that Lions' color commentator Chris Spielman was reduced to an exasperated bundle of cliches, spitting out sentence fragments and shooting barbs at the defense for what he termed as being a "failure to compete".

No, Chris.  That was simply what the Patriots' offense is going to do to folks this season.

Brady was white-hot, going 11 of 12 for 157 yards and two touchdowns in the first quarter, finishing his night 12 of 15 for 174 yards - yielding the reins to backup Jimmy Garoppolo late in the first half after throwing an interception in Detriot's end zone when he and dangerous wideout Chris Hogan got their signals crossed on a deep out and up route into double coverage.

The rest of Brady's throws were a clinic in precision, the only footballs to hit the ground incomplete being a drop by Brandin Cooks on a crossing route, and a drop by tight end Rob Gronkowski on what was nearly a spectacular, twisting grab up the seam on a throw in which Brady was hit from behind just as he was releasing the ball.

The second and third offensive units were just plain offensive and unable to mount any sort of threat until late in the contest once the Lions had scored 27 unanswered points, gaining just 28 yards in four possessions until Garoppolo led two fourth quarter scoring drives.

Despite the miscommunication with Brady on the interception, Hogan was unstoppable and scored on a sit-down route from seven-yards out for the first Patriots' score, then displayed terrific concentration as Brady laid a perfect spiral right into Hogan's bucket from 32 yards out and into double coverage.

Dion Lewis started the game at running back and had a rather pedestrian showing before yielding to James White, who seems to have used his solid performance in last February's Super Bowl as a confidence springboard in the running game, posting 25 yards on only four carries (6.25 yards per carry) right into the teeth of the Lions' run defense...

...while Mike Gillislee took over from there and played the remainder of the first half, getting his feet wet in the Patriots' offense by scoring from the one yard line for New England's third touchdown, converting a two-point try with a burst up the middle, then later giving the Patriots' a little breathing room from deep in their own territory, rumbling 27 yards while displaying the foot speed and vision that caused Belichick to target him in free agency.

While all of this was happening, Matt Patricia's defense bared it's teeth in earnest on Friday night, sandwiching three punts between two turnovers and allowing just 78 yards of total offense before Patricia started replacing his entire secondary and most of his front seven late in the first half.

New England's rush defense came out in force, holding the Lions' running game to a paltry 33 yards on 11 carries in the first half, with five-technique ends Alan Branch and Lawrence Guy flexing their muscles and sealing everything inside, while flushing Stafford from the pocket consistently, Branch recording the game's only sack, a one-handed "get-back-here" job, dragging Stafford down from behind.

Cornerback Malcolm Butler bounced back from a horrific showing against the Houston Texans six-days earlier by punching a ball loose from Lions' receiver Golden Tate on Detroit's first possession - leading to the Brady-to-Hogan 32 yard connection for six - and then deflected a pass that ended up in the hands of fellow-corner Eric Rowe.

For the game, Stafford posted a decent stat line of 15 of 22 for 190 yards, two touchdowns and the Rowe pick, but much of that came late in the first half and early in the second as he led consecutive scoring drives to slice New England's lead to ten points before Lions' coach Jim Caldwell pulled him in favor of Jake Ruddock in the middle of the third quarter...

...but going just 7 of 13 for 55 yards before finally finding his rhythm in the hurry-up against a three-deep zone with time winding down in the first half.

Despite the dominating performance of the starting units, not all was cheeseburgers and beer for New England, as they most likely lost receiver Julian Edelman for the season with what is believed to be a non-contact ACL tear in his right knee and the reserves on both sides of the ball looked lost for most of the second half...

...though that can be chalked up to the fact that it looked as if Belichick was using this game as a conditioning tool, particularly for his defensive line as he kept his starters in the game until the last couple of series, and they appeared to be completely spent towards the end of their time on the field.

But that is nit-picking and reaching to find things to complain about on a night that was a seeming coronation of what most fans and experts already knew: this Patriots' team is loaded on both sides of the ball, and Friday night's short, intense blitzkrieg over, around and through a decent Detroit Lions squad should have color commentators around the league grasping at straws to explain to their viewers why their team looks like they are nothing but road fodder for a Patriots' team hell-bent on trophy number six...

The Art Of Football, Part 8: "Dog Faces" Give the Patriots' Secondary It's Flare

Patriots' safety Duron Harmon stops to admire the Lombardi Trophy after Super Bowl 51

The New England Patriots have so many premium draft picks on their defensive depth chart that they could field a starting lineup made entirely of first and second round draft picks.

No matter what traditional base alignment they play in, there is plenty of draft royalty to man the positions - why just take a look at what the lineup could look like in a 3-4:

Left Defensive End - Kony Ealy (2nd round 2014 by Carolina )
Nose Tackle - Malcom Brown (1st round 2015)
Right Defensive End - Alan Branch (2nd round 2007 by Arizona)
Weakside Linebacker - Kyle Van Noy (2nd round 2014 by Detroit)
Weakside Inside Linebacker - Dont'a Hightower(1st round 2012)
Middle Linebacker - David Harris (2nd round 2007 by New York Jets)
Strongside Linebacker - Shea McClellin (1st round 2012 by Chicago)
Right Cornerback - Eric Rowe (2nd round 2015 by Philadelphia)
Left Cornerback - Stephon Gilmore (1st round 2012 by Buffalo)
Free Safety - Devin McCourty (1st round 2010)
Strong Safety - Patrick Chung (2nd round 2009)

They could use this lineup, but they won't - for no other reason than they are a much better team when their "Devil Dogs" are on the field - their blue-collar, toiling in the trenches and anything-but-pretty working stiffs - because head ball coach and defacto general manager Bill Belichick really doesn't care in what round a player was drafted, doesn't care how much a player makes in salary.

None of that makes any difference on the field. The only thing that does matter is how well a player does his job, and while all of the aforementioned royalty have all had their highlight reel production and individual accolades, there are other players on the team - the Devil Dogs, the Dog Faces, the big ugly collection of irrelevants - who were considered reaches by some draft experts and outright garbage by others that make the ultimate difference.

Which makes no nevermind to Belichick, as he considers draft experts on the same level as beat writers: a complete waste of his time. Belichick has his own formula for grading potential draftees, and has instructed his scouting department to not give players grades on projected rounds, but instead based on a five-tier system of potential.

The criterion is simple.  Belichick wants his scouts to grade players based on how they would fare under his philosophies, placing them in a linear progression of "starters", "potential starters", "developmental players", "backups" and "players who wouldn't make it on any NFL roster." - which precludes status, popularity and any other superficial label that could be applied.

For example, the team's best pass rusher is 2015 fourth-round selection Trey Flowers. Their most consistent defender over the past decade has been former fifth-round pick Rob Ninkovich while rotational nose tackle and 2016 third-round pick Vincent Valentine saw significant snaps late last season and was a force in the running game...

...but it is in the secondary where the "dog faces" make the most impact on defense, as former third-round safety Duron Harmon and undrafted cornerback Malcolm Butler make their bones as two of the best in the game at what they do.

Unless you are one of the people who have been living under large rocks for the past few years, you already know of Butler's heroics in Super Bowl 49 and his corresponding meteoric rise to the top of the NFL's cornerback ladder - this is where I question my own usage of the term "meteoric rise", as meteors tend to fall, not rise, but I am a slave to commonly used metaphors - but not many are truly aware of Harmon's contribution to two championship teams.

Pro Football Focus published some interesting numbers in regard to the Patriots' secondary, a unit that they graded out to be the third-best in the National Football League at the end of last season, and while they've added a very sturdy piece to their cornerback kennel in former Buffalo Bill Stephon Gilmore, it is the steadiness of the safety corps that they opine is what makes this secondary.

And, of course, we know this because the Patriots were said to be in their nickle or dime defensive alignments on 80% of their snaps in 2016, with an extra safety in on the action the majority of that time - so is it any wonder that the Patriots ponied up a four-year, $20 million contract to keep their all-important nickel safety, Duron Harmon, in Foxborough for the immediate future?

Harmon is that rare blue-liner that has the size (6' 1", 210 pounds) and speed (4.41 at Rutgers' pro day), plus the requisite lateral agility to play the single high safety role well enough that it allows New England's defensive coordinator Matt Patricia to use free safety Devin McCourty as a coverage chess piece and strong safety Patrick Chung as an impromptu weak side linebacker without losing anything on the back end.

There is not another team in the National Football League that features such capability in their secondary and, as such, the versatility of what is known as the Big Nickel defense - that is, a nickle or dime alignment that features three safeties - is often overlooked when assessing the talent level of a coverage unit, but the talent of the Patriots' safety corps has not eluded the folks at Pro Football Focus.

The one weakness that the report identified in the secondary was the lack of a true nickel cornerback, which was offset by Harmon playing deep and McCourty - a former cornerback with elite speed and an All Pro selection at both corner and safety on his resume - moved around in coverages, often taking the double slot in a spread formation much like a nickel corner would.

But the Patriots appear to have strengthened their cornerback positions by adding former Buffalo Bill Stephon Gilmore in free agency, who joins Pro Bowl talent Malcolm Butler and ascending star Eric Rowe to form an imposing corps - and with Rowe being a former college safety with like-attributes as Harmon, it gives Patricia many, many options in coverage.

Rowe and Gilmore come as like-sized boundary corners who will most likely fixate on the larger outside receivers, while Butler, who has proven his mettle both outside and in, figures as a chess piece that will be moved around to take advantage of mismatches.

With Gilmore on board and with Rowe ascending as a legitimate corner (see his coverage on Julio Jones in the Super Bowl for an example), teams that employ bigger wideouts to create those mismatches really don't apply against New England as they are well above the curve - again - when it comes to neutralizing a competitor's advantage.

Add to that the aforementioned coverage skill of McCourty and Chung's ability on tight ends, there's not much that's going to get by the Patriots' secondary.

That said, depth is going to be more a matter of who Belichick and Patricia see as having the most developmental upside, because with Butler's contract expiring at the end of the season and with Chung and Rowe scheduled for free agency the following offseason, the Patriots are in good shape to bring along potential replacements.

Actually, Belichick drafted Jordan Richards out of Stanford to develop into a Chung replacement, but he's been a disappointment in a backup role, and no Patriots' fan can hear the name Cyrus Jones without cringing and then falling into a drooling, blank-staring stupor in recalling his struggles in the role as a punt returner last season...

...the fact of which has many forgetting that he was a shutdown corner at Alabama, and never really got a chance to showcase that potential as a rookie as his fumbling issues on punt returns sapped him of so much confidence that Belichick didn't even bother dressing him for the final six games of the regular season, nor for the playoffs.

Jones has always bounced back from disappointment in his football career and has the talent to do so again, and don't expect Belichick to throw the towel in on him after just one season, especially as a second round draft pick.  But while Jones looks to improve on his disastrous rookie season, the jury has spoken in Richards' case, and he may well get the axe as a former second rounder who didn't make much improvement from his rookie season to his sophomore campaign.

Like Jones, Richards looked like a bust from the very start - but unlike Jones, Richards doesn't have the speed nor the instincts to play the strong safety role in New England, as his lumbering style is more scripted for an inside linebacker role, but he just doesn't have the size.  His roster spot is in serious jeopardy, especially given the two undrafted free agents that Belichick signed immediately after the draft.

Richmond's David Jones is a Harmon clone with sideline-to-sideline lateral agility and speed and the ballhawking skills that would make him a fine centerfielder, but has durability concerns and a left forearm that has been the bane of his football existence - this combined with the fact that Harmon was just re-signed, it makes sense that Jones find his way to the practice squad, or even to the PUP where he could allow his forearm to adequately heal while being coached up on the Big Nickel...

...while Minnesota's Damarius Travis is ready to contribute immediately.  At 6' 1" and 212 pounds, Travis is a pure box safety that can handle tight ends across the formation and in tight quarters and is a violent striker in run support.  Where he gets into trouble, as does Chung, is when a tight end takes him up the seam in single coverage - which really isn't an issue with Harmon stalking the blue line.

That leaves only the special teams players that populate the rest of the secondary depth charts, as safeties Nate Ebner and Brandon King and slot corner Jonathan Jones are ace standouts.  Ebner has been a fixture for five seasons and King for two, as the speedster from Auburn also doubles as an emergency "Dime" safety in prevent formations.

Jones also played at Auburn and is a speed merchant like King, but has tremendous ball skills and plays much bigger than his 5' 9" stature would suggest, and has the inside track for the fifth corner spot.

All told, the Patriots may just have the best secondary in the National Football League - surely the most diversely talented - and as we've witnessed for the past couple of seasons, that should be enough.

Bolder Predictions: A Baker's Dozen Of Patriots' Prognostications

Making bold predictions is not my thing.

Though when asked by a co-worker about the Patriots' chances at making the playoffs in 2001, I said that they would win 11 games and win the Super Bowl.  Of course, I was just trying to get the guy away from me, but I tend to do my best work when faced with a little adversity.

I haven't been right on too many things since - going 0-15 in predicting head ball coach Bill Belichick's top draft choice each season until I pulled off the Derek Rivers prediction a couple of months back - so anything I predict shouldn't be taken too seriously - or should it?

Gronkowski and MVP candidate?

Despite my flaws in predicting draft picks, my success rate increases exponentially when it comes to what the roster will look like once camp breaks, and that's what this is all about.

Some of the following predictions are bold, some are weak, some are lame and some are moronic, but I believe my logic is sound, and as Mr. Spock of Star Trek fame was fond of saying, logic is but the beginning of wisdom.  Does that mean these conclusions make me wise?  Hardly, but let's wait until the season concludes before we tackle that question...

1. Rob Ninkovich and Jordan Richards will be released

It's a numbers game for Ninkovich, and just a miscue on Richards.  Anyone who was actually paying attention when the Falcons scored 21 points on the Patriots' defense in Super Bowl 51 would have had to notice that Ninkovich was in coverage on the scoring player in two of those instances, and was badly overmatched. Coincidence that the Falcons were so much faster on offense than the Patriots were on defense?  Perhaps, but the greybeard warrior was badly beaten on both scores and has worn down to where he could now be a liability...

...while Richards was simply a bad reach for a team that was seeking an eventual successor to Patrick Chung at strong safety - which brings us to our next prediction:

2. Belichick will keep at least one undrafted safety

New England values safeties more than most teams, as they wouldn't be able to run their three-safety, Big Nickel alignment without at least three starting quality blue liners.  Despite the amendment to Chung's contract in which he can earn an additional $900k in incentives, the team is almost in desperation mode to find his eventual replacement, and there is at least one undrafted player who would be a perfect developmental fit.

Former Minnesota Gopher Damarius Travis is a pure box safety with the size (6' 2", 215) to contribute in run defense and the cover skills to handle tight ends underneath while Richmond's David Jones is a virtual Duron Harmon clone with the sideline-to-sideline lateral movement and impressive ball skills to develop into a quality ball hawk.  Look for Travis to make the roster with Jones stashed away on the practice squad.

3. Patriots' defense will morph into a 3-4 base front

Of course, the nickel is the Patriots' primary alignment as they are in either a standard or Big Nickel look on three-quarters of their defensive snaps, but if one were to label them in a conventional base, the Fairbanks-Bullough 3-4 alignment is what they have the personnel to run. Belichick was busy this offseason collecting defensive linemen whose skill set translates to five-technique defensive ends, and combined with the sheer number of versatile linebackers on the roster, it all translates to three-man fronts.

New England drafted Arkansas defensive end Deatrich Wise and brought in five-tech ends Lawrence Guy from Baltimore and Kony Ealy from Carolina to team with incumbents Alan Branch, Woodrow Hamilton and rising star Trey Flowers - and have a solid base at nose tackle with a rotation of Malcom Brown and Vincent Valentine.  The linebackers will be supplemented in their rotation with box safeties and they drafted Youngstown State's Derek Rivers to be worked into a strong-side linebacker spot formerly held by Jamie Collins.

4. Patriots offensive line will become a top five unit

If there is a concern on the roster, it is the lack of depth on the interior of the Patriots' offensive line - but given health, the starters are young fire-pissers who should solidify the line for a good length of time, as Shaq Mason is a dominating run blocker who pairs with All Pro right tackle Marcus Cannon to present a formidable strong side presence, David Andrews has evolved into one of the better centers in the league and Joe Thuney should make the requisite second-year jump after an up-and-down year at left guard.

The only real question mark is at left tackle, where Nate Solder has had some injury concerns in the past, and will probably preclude him from signing a long-term contract with the team going forward - which is why Belichick drafted Troy's Antonio Garcia and UCLA's Conor McDermott, and which brings us to...

5. Garcia will assume swing tackle role, Fleming and Waddle will be cut

Garcia is the long-term solution at left tackle but will see most of his action this season as a swing tackle, which means that Cam Fleming and LaAdrian Waddle will be out of a job come September, particularly if McDermott turns out to be more than what his draft profile suggests.

Both were quality blind side protectors in college and have basketball backgrounds - but Garcia is the nasty, play-through-the-whistle type with a fluid kick slide that line coaches dream about, and he should be ready to take over for Solder in 2018 while contributing as a sixth offensive lineman this season.  McDermott is a force as a pulling wham blocker in the running game but doesn't (yet) have the transitional skill nor muscular base to hold up in the trenches as a pro, but has a vicious cut block that will serve him well as a swing tackle both this season and next.

6. Belichick will trade, release or otherwise move Jacoby Brissett

Is one little roster spot that important to the Patriots?  Given the volume of talent on both sides of the ball, one roster spot could mean the difference between being able to develop a player on the roster, or losing him to another team.

Last season was the first time in five years that New England had carried three quarterbacks on the roster, and were fine in doing so as they were able to keep most of their developmental prospects, but this season, with so much talent going at least two-deep on the depth chart at just about every position - including quarterback - the Patriots have put themselves in a position where they are going to have to decide whether it is more important to carry three quarterbacks, or to use the roster spot on a prospect elsewhere.

It may come down to Brissett making the 53-man roster and being dealt sometime before the trade deadline.

7. Running backs will produce over 3000 total yards

The last time the New England Patriots had four running backs capable of producing eye-popping numbers individually was in 1978, the season that the Patriots set a rushing record of 3,165 yards that stands to this day - with Sam Cunningham leading that record-setting backfield that included Andy Johnson, Horace Ivory and Don Calhoun, and had substantial help from quarterback Steve Grogan.

This is not to say that the players that populate the Patriots' backfield nearly four decades later are going to challenge that '78 squad for a record, but they are more than capable of contributing more than 3,000 yards from scrimmage to what may well be a combined record-setting New England offense.

Mike Gillislee and Rex Burkhead should be the leaders in the ground game while James White and Dion Lewis will be the primary passing backs - but all of them are capable of lending a hand in both facets of the offensive production.  Judging just from past production, the Patriots should be able to top 2,000 yards on the ground and also clear 1,000 yards through the air, but that all depends on balanced play calling...

8. Offense will be balanced between run and pass, perhaps even be run-heavy

Last season, the Patriots' offense enjoyed balance in their play calling, and the result was a career season for running back LeGarrette Blount and passing back James White, not to mention an offense that could not be stopped when the game was on the line.

It is especially important to feature balance in the offense as quarterback Tom Brady enters his golden years and probably shouldn't take the kind of pounding that being pass-heavy would subject him to. Besides, the Patriots' offensive philosophy - known universally as the Erhardt-Perkins scheme - requires that they "pass to score, then run to win", which in lay terms means that they will use the passing game to gain a lead and then run the ball to kill the clock.

But it's more than that.  The Patriots proved during the Super Bowl that the best way to wear down a defense is to keep them on the field for a protracted amount of time, moving the chains at a snail's pace, which means the short passing game and power running game - and New England foes are bound to see plenty of both.

9. Cooks will work primarily out of the slot

New receiver Brandin Cooks has an extra gear that most pass catchers do not possess.  Sure, he has straight-line speed to leave a vapor trail, but the diminutive Cooks says that his best destiny is coming out of the slot where he can engage that second gear to leave nickel backs eating dust.

"This is an offense that guys do a bunch of different things and I'm looking forward to doing some things that I didn't necessarily have to do in New Orleans" Cooks said in his initial press conference with the Boston media, then qualified his statement by adding, "as far as playing from the slot, I definitely feel that I can do that at a high level."

Ok, so Cooks playing out of the slot isn't necessarily a bold prediction, but it is a departure from what he encountered in New Orleans, where he was the top outside threat in their high flying circus, though coming out of Oregon State he was projected to be an elite slot guy due to his fearlessness in the tall trees and his ability to separate after the catch - and with New England well stocked with outside-the-numbers, downfield pass catchers in Malcolm Mitchell and Chris Hogan, expect to see Cooks blazing trails from the slot.

10. Gronkowski will be named NFL MVP

Yes, I know that there's some scrub named Brady who will be vying for the same award, but with Gronkowski entering 2017 fully healthy and ready for camp, we are about to witness something magical from the four-time All Pro tight end.

Gronk has played in all 16 games in a season just twice in seven seasons, and that was in his rookie and sophomore seasons, the latter in which he obliterated the league's single-season records for receiving yards (1,327) and touchdowns (18) and was named to his first All Pro team.  His 14.7 yards per reception has increased incrementally since then, cresting at an absurd 21.6 last season before going down with back issues.

He was able to do those things because he is as gifted and as natural a tight end as the game has ever seen, and also had the benefit of a certain pair of wide receivers by the names Moss and Welker to take a lot of heat off of him - but at that point in his career, he was primarily a crosser in the second level, but now has evolved into an extraordinary seam threat...

...and with names such as Edelman, Hogan, Mitchell and Cooks - not to mention a dynamic running game - to occupy defenders, teams may have to resort to (gulp!) leaving Gronkowski to single coverage at times.  And if you base his production anywhere close to what he averaged last season before his injury, we could be looking at a 2,000 yard season for Gronkowski.

Far-fetched?  Maybe, but wouldn't it be cool?

11. Garoppolo will receive major extension

Jimmy Garoppolo and Malcolm Butler are both scheduled for unrestricted free agency next March, and are also expected to be two of the top prizes to be had in said free agency.  The Patriots would do well to ensure neither player makes it that far.

Including the amount of cap space the team will be able to roll over into 2018 combined with the expected annual increase in the cap ceiling and space created by expiring contracts, the Patriots will enter the new league year with upwards of $60 million to play around with - plenty of capital to invest in the future of the quarterback position, as securing Jimmy Clipboard's status must be top priority.

Given that Brady wants to play another couple of seasons, the extension would have to be heavy on immediate money in the way of a franchise record-setting signing bonus, with reasonable annual salaries to offset the bonus and spread across multiple seasons - with, of course, some incentive language that provides for incremental increases in salary for him in the event he ends up with major playing time due to a Brady injury.

Butler may be a tougher signing in that he stands to absolutely break the bank next offseason and Belichick may find it too much to have a quarter of his salary cap tied up in cornerbacks, and it is unclear whether the snafu with New Orleans this offseason would affect Butler's decision-making skills if it came to being offered a deal featuring a hometown discount.  Still, there is plenty of cap space to do both deals plus retain core role players.

12. Butler becomes chess piece in secondary

The primary reason that Belichick splurged on former Buffalo Bills cornerback Stephon Gilmore in free agency is that he needed greater size than what he currently had, given the trend of receivers getting bigger, plus he had no clue whether he would still have Butler on the roster come September.

So now the Patriots have what would have to be considered a very good problem to have - what with Gilmore and emerging number-two corner Eric Rowe standing 6' 1", they now have two long press corners that should be able to match up with a foe's larger receivers, Butler can essentially become a chess piece to be positioned to take advantage of any mismatches.

In Belichick's game plan defense, many of his players are movable, and Butler has demonstrated his mettle and toughness time and again against players big and small, and is versatile enough to play press, off man and zone, no matter if he is outside or in the slot - a place that he could end up seeing a lot of, and a scenario that presents Butler with an opportunity to prove to 31 other general managers that he is indeed one of the league's elite.

That would backfire on Belichick, because if Butler has another solid year, someone is going to make him a very rich man.

13. Rivers assumes and excels in the "Collins" role

Derek Rivers played defensive end at Youngstown State and became one of the best pass rushers in Division II - but at 6' 4" and only 250 pounds, Rivers is not the prototypical size for an NFL defensive end.  And while we may see him with his hand in the dirt on occasion, it is more likely that Belichick envisions a role for him not unlike what he envisioned for Jamie Collins coming out of college.

Collins' draft projection is similar in many ways to Rivers' and both were considered as 3-4 rush linebackers.  Like Collins, Rivers will likely be brought along slowly, then unleashed towards the end of the season.  He excels at stringing out plays to the edge and has a non-stop motor - and maybe it's not fair to him to hoist that kind of reputation to reach for, but he's similar athlete.

General Manager Belichick Schools Rest Of NFL In Cap Management

The New England Patriots gave tight end Rob Gronkowski a raise a few weeks back. Kind of. Sort of.  Maybe?

That really all depends on his ability to stay on the field long enough to achieve certain levels of performance, the structure of which is rare in modern sports, and perhaps should serve as a template for athletes with elite-level talent, but with inherent frailty - or even for those whom have outperformed their current salaries, or even those who need a little push to perform at a higher level.

Gronkowski needs no such motivation to perform, but it goes without saying that, even though injury prone, he has still outperformed his current contract.

Belichick's cap savvy allows for contracts like White's

In what can only be described as an amendment to his current contract, the Patriots upgraded the incentive bonus structure of his 2017 season in such a way that give him an avenue to double his salary while at the same time protecting the team against injury to him, and the resultant lost time and onfield production.

Though Gronkowski's salary structure for the season will cost the team $6.75 million against their salary cap when factoring in prorated bonuses, the actual amount of cash being paid to him is a bargain basement total of $5 million.  The amendment to his contract will increase the amount of cash he can receive incrementally as he clears certain performance levels.

Such a contract could benefit other Patriots - wide receiver Danny Amendola and running back Dion Lewis come to mind - but the point of this is that the franchise took steps to ensure that Gronkowski's paycheck is commensurate with his production, as his 2017 salary structure makes him one of the highest paid tight ends in the game if he reaches certain incentives, the incentives very reachable provided he stays healthy and plays in all sixteen games.

Gronkowski's base salary for 2017 is a meager $4.25 million, though a bonus paid at the start of 2016 and prorated through the life of his contract plus roster and workout bonuses brings his cap hit up to $6.75 million - either way, the numbers are far below what one would expect the best tight end in the NFL should expect to earn...

...so instead of renegotiating the contract, the Patriots added incentives that, if he plays 90% of the teams' offensive snaps, makes him the second highest paid tight end in the league, just behind Jason Whitten's salary profile for the Dallas Cowboys.

That certainly wasn't the case with strong safety Patrick Chung, though on Saturday the team took measures to put a little coin in his pocket by amending his contract to include a multi-tiered incentive template that could mean an extra $900k for a player who previous to 2016 was one of the better box safeties in the league.

Last season was an up and down year for Chung, according to Pro Football Focus, his "uneven" play causing him to plunge drastically from the fifth-ranked safety in the NFL to 81st out of 91 qualifiers, and this after signing a one-year, $5.7 million extension at the start of the league year that keeps him locked up in Foxborough until after the 2018 season.

But here's the thing: There isn't another box safety in the league quite like Pat Chung, who should really be graded as a weak side linebacker as he spends 75% of the team's defensive snaps within eight yards of the line of scrimmage, and is one of the game's best at both tight end coverage and in blitz success.

Of course, this is due to the fact that New England runs with a three-safety, "Big Nickel" alignment that features the best tandem of blue liners in the league, with both Chung and free safety Devin McCourty reducing down into the box as coverage and run support entities, leaving the blue line to centerfielder Duron Harmon.

So his overall grade as a safety decreases as he becomes more valuable to the defense as a whole, an irony that is pervasive throughout the Patriots' team philosophy in which head ball coach and defacto general manager Bill Belichick demands that the game plans accentuate the positives of each player in a never-ending effort to keep the game bigger than the individual player - and adding incentive clauses to active contracts is his way of rewarding the player.

The team could have done that with Amendola as well, though they would have had to set the bar pretty low - not due to talent level, but simply due to the amount of snaps and touches he could be expected to receive in such a crowded receiver corps - and same with Lewis and the similarly loaded backfield.  Instead, Amendola agreed to a reduction in pay from a salary that would have actually paid him just as much as Gronkowski, due to the enormous, back-loaded contract he signed to come to Foxborough in the first place.

The difference between Amendola and Gronkowski is that Amendola is 31 years old and a redundant talent in this offense - clutch as he may be - while Gronkowski is 27 years old and the most dangerous weapon in the league when he is actually on the field.

Amendola is clutch in the biggest of moments, but the contract that he originally signed upon joining the Patriots was based on future production - and while it goes without saying that his regular season production isn't even close to what the team was expecting (mostly due to injury). there is zero doubt that he's worth his weight in gold when the lights are the brightest.

By contrast, Julian Edelman is also 31, but has toiled near the bottom of the receiver pay scale since assuming the role once held by Wes Welker four years ago, a role that Amendola was expected to fill but was never healthy enough to fully grasp the role.  Edelman has been the main cog in an receiver's corps that has essentially shouldered the load for New England during that time frame - and despite being the age when most players see their skill begin to erode, Edelman is as clutch as ever...

...to the degree that the Patriots offered him a contract (three years, $15 million) that will keep him in Foxborough through the 2019 season.

It's a mid-level contract for Edelman, and comes on the heels of the same sort of mid-level signings of core players like James White (three years, $12 million), safety Duron Harmon (four years, $17 million) defensive tackle Alan Branch (two years, $8.45 million) and center David Andrews (three years, $9 million) that is consistent with the Patriots habit of trying to be fair in distributing cap dollars to core role players.

It is also consistent with money being doled out to players coming in as free agents, as running backs Rex Burkhead (1 year, $3.15 million) and Mike Gillislee (2 years, $6.4 million) and defensive end Lawrence Guy (4 years, $13.4 million) signed up for money in that two-to-five million range in which Patriots role players reside.

Because that's the going rate for role players with tenure - meaning they've been in the league for at least three seasons - and in many cases, the Patriots are willing to pay more to a guy whom they envision having a particular role than other teams would who don't profess the week-to-week opponent-specific game plan philosophy that Belichick does.

It is important to note that all of this has been possible due to the masterful way that Belichick manipulates the salary cap.  Of the nearly $60 million in cap space that the Patriots started the league year with, they still have an $18 million buffer, despite spending big money on free agent corner Stephon Gilmore and incumbent defensive captain Dont'a Hightower...

...in addition to the aforementioned players to the mid-level contracts, while taking on the contracts of Brandin Cooks, Kony Ealy and Dwayne Allen, all of whom were acquired through trades.

Now Belichick's off-the-field attention should fall to the many players scheduled for free agency in 2018, though some such as tackle Nate Solder and cornerback Malcolm Butler would essentially eat up all of the remaining cap space, and then some.  Solder is could be a goner unless he takes a Marcus Cannon (five-year, $32 million) type deal, which would put him in Donald Penn territory in - you guessed it - a mid-level salary structure, and even then, it all depends on the development of rookie third-round pick Antonio Garcia.

Butler is a little easier to figure out.  Playing on a restricted free agent first-round tag, he was the central point in rumored trades throughout the offseason, and will most likely cash in on the open market in 2018 as an unrestricted free agent - motivated and guided by the fact that Belichick spent big money on Gilmore.

If they let both walk and also subtract the salaries of players who will likely look for employment elsewhere next offseason, the Patriots would carry $50 million in cap space into 2018, not counting the increase in the cap ceiling that has trended upwards of $10 million annually - and that means that Belichick would have the same amount of cap space to play with as he did this past offseason...

...all the while having suitable backups for each departing player already under contract - but with that much cap space, it be more prudent to pay Butler ( one can never have enough defensive backs) and invest the remaining money on keeping players like backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo around in order to maintain a competitive team for years to come.

Only Belichick knows for sure, and he's not going to tip his hand to anyone - but if there is a certainty, we already know that the Patriots will be loaded with a bunch of role players that are happy to be playing on mid-level or incentive-rich contracts in order to maximize their careers in a place where the culture breeds winners.

That is, after all, the Patriot's way.

Assessing The Patriots' Roster With Draft Looming

The New England Patriots have 65 players on their preseason roster, 25 short of the 90 man limit heading into offseason workouts and, ultimately, training camp - and what you see thus far is pretty much what Patriots' fans are liable to get when camp breaks in early September.

Hightower and Roberts in Super Bowl

After all, the Patriots have already had their "draft", per se, as they have traded their top draft capital to New Orleans and Carolina for wide receiver Brandin Cooks and defensive end Kony Ealy, respectively - not to mention that in free agency they picked up another defensive end in Lawrence Guy, cornerback Stephon Gilmore and running back Rex Burkhead, leaving them with an early third-round selection as their first pick of the 2017 draft.

With so many camp spots left to fill, and with so few draft picks in which to fill them, there are many opportunities for undrafted rookies and marginal veteran talents to earn a surprise spot on the roster or on the practice squad.

Quarterbacks (3)

Tom Brady
Jimmy Garoppolo
Jacoby Brissett

Jimmy Clipboard isn't going anywhere, hammering home the notion that he is viewed to be the future of the franchise.  Many writers and fans find it curious that the team isn't willing to part with Garoppolo to gain value for him in the final year of his rookie contract, but all these folks have to do is look around the league to see teams that have everything else in place, but aren't as successful as they should be because they don't have a franchise quarterback...

Chances of drafting a quarterback: Zero

Candidates for draft if Garoppolo dealt: Central Michigan's Cooper Rush

Possible veteran signings if Garoppolo dealt: Matt McGloin (Oakland), 

Running Backs (7)

James White

Dion Lewis
Rex Burkhead
*Mike Gillislee
Brandon Bolden
D.J. Foster
James Develin
Glenn Gronkowski

With the only question mark being whether or not the Bills will match New England's offer sheet to Gillislee, this is a solid group that will be pared down to five players at final cutdowns - bad news for Gronkowski and possibly Foster...and anyone who had designs of being drafted by the team.

Chances of drafting a running back: If Gillislee stays, minimal.  If Gillislee remains with Buffalo, very good.

Candidates being Wyoming's Brian Hill, Pitt's James Connor, Wisconsin's Dare Ogunbowale, Boise State's Jeremy McNichols

Veterans that could be signed include LeGarrette Blount (NE), Adrian Peterson (Minn), Justin Forsett (Balt)

Wide Recievers (8)

Julian Edelman
Danny Amendola
Chris Hogan
Malcolm Mitchell
Brandin Cooks
Devin Lucien
Matthew Slater
De'Andrew White

How many receivers does a team actually need?  A better question for Patriots' fans may be, how many very good receivers does a team actually need?

The Patriots generally keep four receivers on the 53 man roster - not counting Slater who is a receiver by label only - but this season it looks like it's going to be six, because who do you cut?  Certainly not Cooks, whom Belichick gave up a first round draft pick for, not Edelman nor Hogan.  Amendola is as clutch as clutch can be and took a serious pay cut to stay with the team and Malcolm Mitchell qualifies as an emerging threat bordering on stardom...

Chances of drafting a receiver: Zero

Tight Ends (4)

Rob Gronkowski
Dwayne Allen
Rob Housler
Matt Lengel

Gronkowski is perhaps the greatest mismatch in the league today when he's healthy, while Allen has never lived up to his full potential as a hybrid, move tight end, and may not get the touches to do much more in Foxborough, as the pass catching talent on the roster is among the league's best, and certainly the most versatile...

...which is even worse news for Housler, who is a receiver only and never saw a man he could block.  Lengel has a chance to stick on the roster due to his blocking prowess, but given all of the aforementioned talent on the roster, his spot is nowhere close to being guaranteed.

Chances of drafting a tight end: 50/50, if the Patriots feel they need to develop a long-term player.

Candidates being Virginia Tech's Bucky Hodges, Ashland's Adam Shaheen, Washington's Darrell Daniels.


Offensive Tackles (5)

Nate Solder
LaAdrian Waddle
Marcus Cannon
Cam Fleming
Michael Williams

Solder had a terrible first half of last season, but came on at the end, while Cannon had such a great season that he was named a second-team All Pro.  Solder's cap hit is enormous this season, and if his 2017 is anything like the second half of last season, he will be demanding huge dollars.  Cannon turned in an excellent performance and is under contract for the foreseeable future.

Fleming is invaluable as a swing tackle, while Waddle is apparently fragile, but a decent depth option if healthy.  Williams is actually a massive tight end converted to tackle - but none would be able to fill Solder's shoes in the event of emergency or attrition.

Chances of drafting an offensive tackle: Almost certain

Candidates being Troy's Antonio Garcia, Florida State's Roderick Johnson, Texas A&M's Avery Gennesey, Bucknell's Julie'n Davenport, Alabama State's Jylan Ware.

Available veteran tackles: Ryan Clady (Den), Sebastian Vollmer (NE)

Offensive Guards (5)

Joe Thuney
Shaq Mason
Chase Farris
Chris Barker
Jamil Douglass

Thuney was roughed up in pass protection in his rookie year, but Mason made great strides and was the most improved player on the team.  Behind those two are huge question marks and untested depth with the release of Tre' Jackson last week due to injury concerns.  This could be Barker's chance to finally ascend from the Practice squad, but the Patriots likely won't take any chances and are likely to pick up another guard through the draft or free agency.

Chances of drafting a guard: Certain

Candidates being Pitt's Dorian Johnson, LSU's Ethan Pocic, Western Michigan's Taylor Moton, Utah's Isaac Asiata, Texas A&M's Jermaine Eluemunor, TCU's Aviante Collins.

Available veteran guards: Mike Harris (Minn), Jahari Evans (NO)

Centers (2)

David Andrews
Ted Karras

Both players are mean scrappers.  No need to upset that apple cart.  In a pinch, both Mason and Thuney have experience at center, so the position should be set.

Chances of drafting a center: Zero

Defensive Tackles (5)

Alan Branch
Malcolm Brown
Vincent Valentine
Woodrow Hamilton
Darius Kilgo

Branch, Brown and Valentine represent one of the best interior rotations in the NFL, and Hamilton is a project with tremendous upside.  When New England goes into their three-man line in the Big Nickel variation ends Trey Flowers and Lawrence Guy reduce down to become effective five-technique rushers.

Chances of drafting a defensive tackle: Slim

Available veteran tackles: Jared Odrick (Jac), Sen"Derrick Marks (Jac)

Defensive Ends (5)

Trey Flowers
Rob Ninkovich
Geneo Grissom
Kony Ealy
Lawrence Guy

Flowers is on the verge of superstardom, which means the Patriots need to extend him quickly to avoid the inevitable contract squabbles.  Ninkovich is a warrior with lots of miles on him, but still a capable edge setter while Ealy is young, but mostly a situational edge rusher.  Guy is an unknown and underrated five and seven technique end who graded out as PFF's number ten rated edge setter last season.

Depth is certainly a concern, and the best case scenario is for the Patriots to bring in an all-purpose end to compete for three-down duties.

Chances of drafting a defensive end: Certain

Candidates being Wisconsin's T.J. Watt, Florida State's DeMarcus Walker, Ohio's Tarell Basham, Youngstown State's Derek Rivers, Villnova's Tanoh Kpassagnon.

Available veteran edge defenders: none of consequence


Linebackers (6)

Dont'a Hightower
Kyle Van Noy
Shea McClellin
Elandon Roberts
Trevor Bates
Jonathan Freeney

The re-signing of Hightower augments the presence of Van Noy and McClellin to form an intriguing linebacking corps with plenty of interior depth with Roberts and Freeny.  If there is a need, it is for a cover backer, which always seems to be a need in New England, who typically drops a safety down onto the second level to handle those duties on passing downs.

Chances of drafting a linebacker: 50/50

Candidates being Louisville's Josh Harvey-Clemons, Houston's Tyus Bowser.

Available veteran linebackers: Perry Riley (Oak), Gerald Hodges (SF)


Cornerbacks (6)

Stephon Gilmore
Malcolm Butler
Eric Rowe
Cyrus Jones
Jonathan Jones
Justin Coleman

Gilmore, Butler and Rowe represent the best set of corners in the league - if they remain together.  At this point, it doesn't make any sense to break them up, giving Belichick a nice problem in finding enough playing time for all three, plus getting some dime work in for Cyrus Jones and Justin Coleman.

Butler may or may not still be on the trading block after signing his very affordable tender, and if he does indeed leave, the unproven depth behind Gilmore and Rowe may be enough to make the Patriots look at corners in the draft.

Chances of drafting a cornerback: 50/50, depending on Butler's situation

Candidates being Michigan's Jourdan Lewis, Clemson's Cordrea Tankersley, West Virginia's Rasul Douglas, Houston's Howard Wilson, Central Florida's Shaquill Griffin, Temple's Nate Hairston, Michigan's Channing Stribling and Utah's Brian Allen

Available veteran cornerbacks: Darrelle Revis (NYJ), Alterraun Verner (TB)


Safeties (6)

Devin McCourty
Patrick Chung
Duron Harmon
Nate Ebner
Jordan Richards
Brandon King

McCourty, Chung and Harmon represent the best set of safeties in the league, and allow Belichick to run his Big Nickel without fear.  Ebner and King are special teams standouts, leaving only the thus-far disappointing Jordan Richards as depth, and with Chung reaching 30 years old during camp, the need for a strong safety is great.

Some of the corners already mentioned fir the Patriots need for a physical box safety with coverage ability - Tankersley, Griffin and Allen come to mind, but there are other candidates coming out of college as safeties.

Chances of drafting a safety: Good

Candidates include Louisville's Josh Harvey-Clemons, UConn's Obi Melifonwu, Florida's Quincey Wilson, Utah's Marcus Williams, Air Force's Weston Steelhammer

Available veteran safeties: Duke Ihenacho (Wash), Shamarko Thomas (Pitt)


Kickers (3)

Joe Cardona
Ryan Allen
Stephen Gostkowski

Cardona and Allen continue their steady play, and Gostkowski is decently reliable on field goals, but extra points seem to give him trouble - and being that he's missed extra points in championship games two seasons in a row has to be disconcerting to Belichick.  That said, it is still a longshot for the team to bring in any competition, though it is certainly possible.

Chances of drafting a kicker: Remote

Patriots Way Alive And Well Despite Crazy Offseason

The New England Patriots give the appearance of going "All In" to bring another trophy or two to Foxborough before Tom Brady and Bill Belichick decide to hang up their respective cleats and whistles - but is it at the expense of what has come to be known as the Patriots' Way?

The Patriots' Way is, in a manner of speaking, the template for success in the National Football League during the salary-capped era - an efficient business plan that combines fiscal responsibility with an unmatched feel for the open market, complete with a vibrant moral compass that factors heavily into personnel decisions.

But this offseason, the Patriots seem to have strayed from their team building methods, eliciting euphoria from the aesthetic crowd and genuine concern from the hard liners.

Euphoria for the folks who crave the big name elitists, but also concern in that the Patriots are willingly departing from a tried and true system that has brought unprecedented success to the franchise since Robert Kraft purchased the team back in the mid-90's and particularly since he hired Bill Belichick to run things for him at the turn of the century - because as the old axiom goes, if it ain't broke, don't fix it.

To be fair, Belichick has pulled off his standard fleecing of other organizations in obtaining wide receiver Brandin Cooks, tight end Dwayne Allen and defensive end Kony Ealy, using their top draft capital to what in essence was "drafting" young players with NFL game experience on their resumes, perhaps acknowledging that players coming out of college in positions of need for New England are too far off from contributing on a team already loaded to the gills.

Which is as "Belichickian" as you can get, as is the Dark Master's obsession with defensive backs, so to hear that he had re-signed centerfielder Duron Harmon to neat little four-year deal in order to keep his favored Big Nickel package in play at all times was not in the least bit shocking or unwarranted, nor was the news that he had inquired as to the availability of Seattle Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman before free agency opened for business.

Belichick has historically been criticized for his seemingly odd behavior when it comes to signing defensive backs - Adrian Wilson, Brandon Browner and Darrelle Revis come to mind in free agency and selecting names like Tavon Wilson, Ras-I Dowling and Jordan Richards early in the draft - so it wasn't out of character for him to show interest in Sherman...

...but more recently the team has been in the news for their highly controversial  cup of coffee and physical with disgraced running back Adrian Peterson - and now for their rumored renewed interest in the abrasive and loquacious (not to mention expensive) cornerback Sherman.

Jeff Howe of the Boston Herald went a step beyond reason when reporting on both, suggesting that he wouldn't have a problem if the Patriots' front office were to toss aside their track record of avoiding players with domestic violence incidents, either past or present, and sign Peterson despite his well-publicized legal difficulties involving violence towards his then four-year-old son.

Howe's remarks sparked a heated debate with some other prominent Boston sportscasters and even fueled a dissenting and brutal response from the New York Times, who claimed that the Patriots were two-faced for even considering a deal with Peterson.

Needless to say, Howe is riding a very thin line with just about everyone who counts with the Patriots and their beat media, managing to look goofier than even Ben Volin in the process, and his response to the criticism making him appear even crustier than Ron Borges - something that is going to be tough for him to live down anytime soon.

Howe aside, Belichick did open up a can of worms when he opened up the vault in free agency to lure cornerback Stephon Gilmore away from Buffalo.

Gilmore is a luxury that came to pass after the Patriots reportedly approached and was subsequently rebuffed by the Seattle Seahawks in regard to their interest in obtaining the abrasive and loquacious Sherman - which in and of itself would have cost New England enough in future draft capital to effectively mortgage the franchise's future - so Belichick signed Gilmore to a five-year, $65 million contract that guarantees $40 million, $18 million of that in a signing bonus.

When is the last time the Patriots shelled out that kind of long-term scratch?

A better question may be, why give Gilmore that kind of money when you have one of the game's top corners already on your team who is up for a raise?  Losing Logan Ryan in free agency justifies bringing in another player, but to lay out starter's money to a guy not versed in the system over one that is - and who was rated higher to boot - goes against conventional wisdom.

But what people feel is wrong with Belichick in these situations is actually what is so right about him.  He has never been one to care what Howe or Volin or Borges has to say, and usually he laughs off criticism like most people brush snow off of their windshields - but being accused of broaching the Patriots Way for one thing brought up by the media has to have him fuming.

Belichick knew he was going to lose Ryan in free agency, and he figured he may lose Butler as well, which is most likely the reason why he tagged Butler with a first-round tender as a restricted free agent, protecting himself from everything except another team's desperation, and so to inquire about Sherman and signing Gilmore when he knew that Butler had interest from the Saints is called covering your butt.

Many felt that he could have avoided the whole fiasco with Butler by signing him to a long-term contract, but Belichick isn't about to let a player dictate his market, particularly one who was trying to broach protocol after just three seasons in the league, while everyone else in football has to wait until they've accrued four.

History tells us that the Patriots willingly wrap up their extraordinary players to contract extensions that are true extensions - meaning that they leave the remainder of the current contract be, the extension activated upon the expiration of the current deal.  One has only to look at tight end Rob Gronkowski's deal in 2012, Nate Solder's in 2015 and Marcus Cannon's last season to figure that out...

...and while we don't know the circumstances surrounding any offer made to Butler, nor why he has yet to sign his tender, all anyone can do is speculate - which is what gets people like beat writers into hot water.

As far as Sherman goes, most of the information coming out on him has been generated by the Seahawks themselves, who have been busy patting themseleves on the back by claiming to be transparent in their dealings with players and in the media in an attempt to deflect responsibility for the Sherman rumors, which have ramped up again with a report from the Miami Herald that it is going to take "a player and a high draft pick" to pique the Seahawks' interest in moving on from the three-time All Pro corner.

The Seahawks claim that "several teams" have initiated not just fact-finding discussions, but actual trade talks, which makes their claim about transparency look more like a tactic to drum up interest in Sherman throughout the league.

While the Patriots were interested in Sherman initially, there are reasons to believe that they have closed the book on their dealings with the Seahawks.

The Gilmore contract which, when added to what the team would have to absorb to acquire Sherman and the salaries of the rest of the starting defensive backfield, would take up a full one-quarter of the Patriots' salary cap this season, and almost a third of it next season - and that is without Butler in the mix, who would likely be the one headed to Seattle as part of the compensation for a Sherman deal.

That would make them the most expensive secondary in the league by a large margin, but also the most talented, in theory - but it just doesn't make sense when the Patriots could use that cap space on expiring contracts for next season, with names like Solder, White, Lewis, Burkhead, Edelman and Garoppolo up for extensions, as well as having to pick up a fifth-year option on Cooks.

The Patriots Way would not allow for the Sherman thing to happen.  It rubs against everything that the Patriots have stood for, against their philosophies on both sides of the ball and, again, against conventional wisdom.  Let the teams always chasing the Patriots have at him - after all, it's what makes those teams the one's perpetually chasing them in the first place.

The bottom line is, the Patriots' Way is alive and well, despite appearances to the contrary.