The Patriots' 53: Owning Up To Our Predictions; Trader Bill Makes It A Wild Ride

Bill Belichick didn't like the looks of the options he had at final cutdowns, so he dipped into his magic bag of trade leverage and filled every hole the Patriots had - and then some.

The New England Patriots eclectic and often volatile head ball coach and defacto general manager had holes to fill at wide receiver, punt returner, edge-setter and as depth in the secondary, and took care of all of them in three separate trades over the course of Saturday afternoon.

The first trade brought special teams ace Johnson Bademosi over from the Detroit Lions.  He's listed on their depth charts as a cornerback, but with his speed and range, his most likely fit in New England is backing up centerfielder Duron Harmon. His signing spelled the end of any chance undrafted free agent safety Demarius Travis had of making the final roster, though he should be back as a scout squad player.

And then, there were two...

The second trade of the day blew everyone's mind and polarized Patriots' nation as Belichick traded promising second-year quarterback Jacoby Brissett to the Indianapolis Colts for former first-round receiver Phillip Dorsett.

The trade confirms that Colts' quarterback Andrew Luck may not be returning as quickly as previously thought, after having surgery on his throwing shoulder in the offseason - and also that the Colts aren't sold on career backup Scott Tolzien as their long-term answer if Luck is out for more than a game or two.

It also lends a somewhat positive spin on the future of resident quarterback-in-waiting Jimmy Gaoppolo, who is entering his contract year, as Belichick would never put himself in a position to lose leverage in contract negotiations by dealing away said leverage away, so he must have some assurances from the Garoppolo camp that their client is going to play nice on an extension that will likely make him an instant multi-millionaire...

...an extension that would contain a large signing bonus to keep Garoppolo happy in sitting on the bench behind Brady for a year or two, loaded with incentives that would pay him starter money should he unexpectedly start receiving starter's snaps due to illness or injury.

On the flipside, Dorsett brings 4.28 speed to a team that just signed Brandin Cooks (4.33) and already had one of the best receiving corps in the NFL, plus brings some punt return experience, as he returned both punts and kickoffs at the University of Miami, but saw very little special teams action in his two seasons with the Colts.

The third trade was perhaps the most impactful of the three, Belichick sending a fifth and seventh round pick to Seattle for "Jack" linebacker Cassius Marsh.

Marsh was a fourth-round pick by the Seahawks in 2013, who originally thought of him as a five-technique defensive end, as he played such in college at UCLA, but he didn't bulk up as quickly as they would have liked so they compromised and played him at the "Jack", or the rush linebacker on the strong side of an offset 3-4 line.

The wheeling and dealing is most likely not over, but for now, let's take a look at the Patriots' 53-man roster as it stand at the moment, with our picks for players who didn't make the roster crossed out and players who made the team either by trade or some other decision in italic script:

Quarterbacks (2):

Tom Brady
Jimmy Garoppolo

Brissett had a nice stat line in the preseason finale, but is still suffering from some breakdowns in mechanics, as evidenced by several high throws and a couple of worm-burners that his receivers had to hit the turf to get to.  That said, the Patriots did well to get a former first-round draft pick from the Indianapolis Colts in exchange for Brissett.

One of the more intriguing subplots to this trade is that the Patriots would not have dealt Brissett without getting some sort of assurances from Garoppolo that he was going to play nice and accept some sort of mid-range, bonus-and-incentive-heavy deal to remain with the Patriots until Brady decides to hang 'em up.

Running Backs (5):

James White
Mike Gillislee

Dion Lewis
Rex Burkhead
D.J. Foster
James Develin

No surprises on this list, although with the Edelman injury and the resultant overall dynamic of the offense changing to compensate, White should take a more active role in the slot and lined up wide to take advantage of mismatches and to spread the second level thin.

Perhaps the thought was that was going to fall to Foster, who also has some punt return experience, but with the acquisition of Dorsett, both of those jobs were better placed elsewhere.

Receivers (6):

Julian Edelman (IR)
Brandin Cooks
Chris Hogan
Malcolm Mitchell
Danny Amendola
Matthew Slater
Phillip Dorsett (Acquired in Brissett trade)

Dorsett is even faster than Cooks, believe it or not.  So the way the depth chart is rounding out, the Patriots may have the most lethal vertical attack in the league, especially when including Hogan, Mitchell and, of course, Gronkowski up the seam.  But they could also elect to use that speed underneath - regardless of how they play it, the Patriots' offensive playbook just opened up a little wider.

Tight Ends (3):

Rob Gronkowski
Dwayne Allen
Jacob Hollister

Hollister makes the roster as a one-dimensional "Move" tight end, with very little to offer in-line as a blocker - that job falls to Allen, who is a tremendous in-line blocker and an equally competent pass catcher.  Gronkowski returns as the leagues biggest and most lethal mismatch.

Offensive Tackles (4):

Nate Solder
Marcus Cannon
Cam Fleming
Antonio Garcia (NFI LIst)
La'Adrian Waddle

There isn't much information available on what's going on with Garcia, but his injury opens the door for both Flaming and Waddle to back up second-team All Pro Cannon and walk-year blind-sider Solder, respectively.

Interior Offensive Line (4):

Joe Thuney
Shaq Mason
David Andrews
Ted Karras
Cole Croston

Very much a surprise that Karras was cut, but he could be back as a scout-squad guy.  Cole Croston made the team presumably as a guard after he looked horrible as a tackle in the preseason. Regardless, Thuney, Andres and Mason form a dominating interior line.

Offense total: 24


Defensive Line (7):

Malcolm Brown
Alan Branch
Trey Flowers
Vincent Valentine
Lawrence Guy
Deatrich Wise
Adam Butler

Two nose tackles in Brown and Valentine, four bigger five-technique ends in Branch, Guy, Wise and Butler, complemented by Flowers, who can play it any way you want.  The front seven is built to accommodate what I call a 3-4 plus one, which means an offset three man line playing odd spacing with a "Jack" linebacker being the fourth rusher.


Linebackers (8):
Dont'a Hightower
Kyle Van Noy
Shea McClellin
David Harris
Marquis Flowers (Acquired in trade with Bengals)
Elandon Roberts
Harvey Langi
Cassius Marsh (Acquired in trade with Seahawks)

Marsh was picked up from the Seahawks in a trade at final cutdowns.  He was originally thought to be a five-technique end in their system, and he did play some in that capacity, but he was even better as what the Seahawks called a "Leo" linebacker - that is, a  linebacker that stands up on the strong side end of an offset 3-4 defensive line as a Pass rusher, just like we saw with Harvey Langi in the preseason.  In the Patriots' defense, it is known as a "Jack" linebacker, and now New England has plenty to go around.

Cornerbacks (4):

Stephon Gilmore
Malcolm Butler
Eric Rowe
Cyrus Jones (IR)
Jonathan Jones
Justin Coleman (Traded to Seahawks)

New England traded cornerback Justin Coleman to Seattle in exchange for a late-round draft pick. This means one of two things occurred: either Coleman was going to make the Patriots' roster and the Patriots ultimately decided that the draft pick was more valuable at this point, or, The Seahawks really wanted him and knew he wouldn't pass through waivers, which would have meant putting in a waiver request was going to be a crap shoot.

With Cyrus Jones going on IR, what the team would be looking for was a punt return specialist, not necessarily another cornerback, particularly considering how stocked they are at safety.  Gilmore, Butler and Rowe represent one of the better cornerback trios in the league, and Jones seems to have added value to his standing in the secondary by excelling in the slot during camp.

Safeties (7):

Devin McCourty
Patrick Chung
Duron Harmon
Jordan Richards (left off original projections)
Nate Ebner
Brandon King
Damarius Travis
Johnson Bademosi

Belichick added Bademosi to the roster on cutdown day from the Detroit Lions in exchange for a sixth-round draft pick.  He is listed as a cornerback, but he is really a free safety with the tools to be a centerfielder.  In the grand scheme of things, he represents one of the best special teams players in the league, but may just be in Foxborough due to core coverage team standout Nate Ebner being nicked.

With just four corners on the roster, the Big Nickel trifecta of McCourty, Chung and Harmon may take on even more significance, depending on the opponent.

Defensive total: 26


Specialists (3): 

Joe Cardona
Ryan Allen
Stephen Gostkowski

Did you really expect anything different?

Specialists Total: 3

Patriots' Team Building Process On Full Display Against Jags

We've all heard it a thousand times.

When asked about the progress of any player at this point in the team building process, we usually get a canned response from New England Patriots head ball coach Bill Belichick, something to the effect of a combination of "He works hard", "He's a smart kid" and the ever popular, "We'll have to see."

But on Tuesday when asked about second-year quarterback Jacoby Brissett, we got something straight from the depths.

"He's a work in progress." Belichick deadpanned to the glee of bored beat writers.

When Brissett is in the game on Thursday night against the Jaguars, it will most likely be with all manner of position battles happening all over the offensive line, so we are going to be able to witness first hand if Brissett has made that essential second-year progression in regard to his mechanics.

You see, the North Carolina State alum has a penchant for throwing off his back foot when being pressured up the gut, a natural knee-jerk reaction that produces overthrows without much on them, especially up the sidelines, making them ripe for interceptions by centerfielders in the worst-case scenarios, and wasted downs in the best-case.

Thus far in camp, it's obvious that he still has the issue and has thrown the aforementioned high ball off of his back foot release and it seems as though he is trying to compensate for the poor mechanics rather than correcting them.  It will be interesting to see if Jacksonville makes it a point to pressure him up the middle to force those floaters, and also to see if they align a single-deep safety as a ball hawk to pick him off.

This is what camp and preseason are for.  Brissett has an absolute rocket for an arm when he can step into throws and does have good accuracy on the intermediate and short throws, making him an adequate short-term backup, but the issues with his mechanics make him a poor choice as a long-term fill-in, as teams would easily be able to game-plan against his weaknesses.

Needless to say, tonight's game is going to be important to his future with the team.

Other players we will be watching closely:

Dion Lewis - From all accounts the "Human Joy Stick" is back to his old elusive self, breaking ankles and causing would-be tacklers to grasp at thin air.  How much he used in the preseason - and even early in the regular season is anyone's guess, but it makes sense to limit the demure all purpose back's exposure to things that might rip his legs apart, so if he does play, we really can't expect it will be for very long.

Rex Burkhead - On the other hand, we will probably see plenty of Burkhead, who has a little bit of every type of running style known to man inside of him.  He can play the power guy, he can catch the ball, he can protect the passer - which may turn out to be a godsend to Patriots quarterbacks in the preseason - and once he's in the open field, he looks like a newborn fawn trying to find it's footing, with elbows and knees everywhere.  Regardless of how it looks, he's been effective with it in the past.

Devin Lucien - Lucien has generated plenty of press clippings the past few weeks, and now it's time to see if he's just a workout warrior or if his star rises when the bright lights come on.  You can read more about the Arizona State product here...

Jacob Hollister - The Patriots generally carry three tight ends, but the third guy is normally more of an inline blocking machine than what Hollister presents, but his receiving skills can't be ignored.  Of the candidates for the roster spot, the Wyoming product is far and away the best pass-catching prospect, but he offers little from a blocking perspective, certainly less than what the other candidates bring.

For that very reason, Hollister is going to have to bring the "Wow" factor in the preseason if he wants to make this team.

Conor McDermott - Does the athletic McDermott have the sand-in-his-pants anchor to play the blindside protector?  Either Brissett and/or Jimmy Garoppolo is going to find out on Thursday night when the UCLA product goes up against names like Yannick Ngakoue and Dante Fowler.

Blessed with a basketball player's size and slide step, McDermott looks every bit a tight end - but one can't help noticing that he is a far more effective blocker on the move in the running game pulling into the interior on a "wham" assignment, using a killer cut block to take down rogue linebackers while his set and slide technique screams "tackle" in pass protection, he just doesn't have the anchor - or does he?

We'll probably get to see tonight...

Deatrich Wise - The Jacksonville offensive line is a hot mess everywhere except at the pivot, so the Patriots coaches should reasonably expect to see their defensive linemen dominate - but in a preseason game in which the coaches are looking at form and technique, domination is not always going to be apparent to the naked eye, nor will it necessarily show up on the stat sheet.

With Wise, who has long arms and enormous hands, he should be rag-dolling tackles early in the game with a savage initial punch, and bull rushing him back into the pocket.  Like Trey Flowers before him, Wise dominated as a defensive end at Arkansas with uncommon strength, but unlike Flowers, he's not quick-twitch so a lot will depend on his pad level as the game wears on.

If he plays into the late stages of the game and he's still stacking up tackles like cord wood, it may be an indication that the Patriots have struck gold twice in drafting hogs.

Derek Rivers - Rivers was an All American defensive end at Youngstown State, but in the pros, his best destiny is at strong-side linebacker, as his size and skill set whispers "Jamie Collins".

Rivers has been working on his pegs on both sides of the second level all through camp, and when rushing in tandem with Wise, who has worked exclusively as a down lineman, they have been nearly unblockable.  Rivers' issue is that he has zero experience as a stand-up linebacker, so the learning curve is protracted - but if his production in camp is any indication, he's well ahead of that curve.

Cyrus Jones - Naturally, everyone in the civilized world and Canada will be watching with a blood-lust to see if Jones muffs a punt or makes some sort of crazy, knee-jerk decision of some sort that will result in a turnover, but Jones seems to have regained much of his confidence on fielding kicks, so in addition to his special teams play, he will be getting some reps at corner, perhaps a bunch.

Damarius Travis - strong safety Jordan Richards is in the fight of his career for a roster spot, but every kid in the mix that gets injured makes him closer to a lock to hold on to his spot for a this season.  The only player left in his way?  Damarius Travis.

Travis is an undrafted box safety with a reputation for going after the big hit, eschewing proper wrap-up technique required for run support.  He also is reported to have issues with handling tight ends on seam routes, which belies his extraordinary height (6' 2") for the position.  That said, we'll be looking to see if the Jaguars can cause those deficiencies to manifest, of if he has taken to professional coaching.

Bolder Predictions: A Baker's Dozen Of Patriots' Prognostications

Making bold predictions is not my thing.

Though when asked by a co-worker about the Patriots' chances at making the playoffs in 2001, I said that they would win 11 games and win the Super Bowl.  Of course, I was just trying to get the guy away from me, but I tend to do my best work when faced with a little adversity.

I haven't been right on too many things since - going 0-15 in predicting head ball coach Bill Belichick's top draft choice each season until I pulled off the Derek Rivers prediction a couple of months back - so anything I predict shouldn't be taken too seriously - or should it?

Gronkowski and MVP candidate?

Despite my flaws in predicting draft picks, my success rate increases exponentially when it comes to what the roster will look like once camp breaks, and that's what this is all about.

Some of the following predictions are bold, some are weak, some are lame and some are moronic, but I believe my logic is sound, and as Mr. Spock of Star Trek fame was fond of saying, logic is but the beginning of wisdom.  Does that mean these conclusions make me wise?  Hardly, but let's wait until the season concludes before we tackle that question...

1. Rob Ninkovich and Jordan Richards will be released

It's a numbers game for Ninkovich, and just a miscue on Richards.  Anyone who was actually paying attention when the Falcons scored 21 points on the Patriots' defense in Super Bowl 51 would have had to notice that Ninkovich was in coverage on the scoring player in two of those instances, and was badly overmatched. Coincidence that the Falcons were so much faster on offense than the Patriots were on defense?  Perhaps, but the greybeard warrior was badly beaten on both scores and has worn down to where he could now be a liability...

...while Richards was simply a bad reach for a team that was seeking an eventual successor to Patrick Chung at strong safety - which brings us to our next prediction:

2. Belichick will keep at least one undrafted safety

New England values safeties more than most teams, as they wouldn't be able to run their three-safety, Big Nickel alignment without at least three starting quality blue liners.  Despite the amendment to Chung's contract in which he can earn an additional $900k in incentives, the team is almost in desperation mode to find his eventual replacement, and there is at least one undrafted player who would be a perfect developmental fit.

Former Minnesota Gopher Damarius Travis is a pure box safety with the size (6' 2", 215) to contribute in run defense and the cover skills to handle tight ends underneath while Richmond's David Jones is a virtual Duron Harmon clone with the sideline-to-sideline lateral movement and impressive ball skills to develop into a quality ball hawk.  Look for Travis to make the roster with Jones stashed away on the practice squad.

3. Patriots' defense will morph into a 3-4 base front

Of course, the nickel is the Patriots' primary alignment as they are in either a standard or Big Nickel look on three-quarters of their defensive snaps, but if one were to label them in a conventional base, the Fairbanks-Bullough 3-4 alignment is what they have the personnel to run. Belichick was busy this offseason collecting defensive linemen whose skill set translates to five-technique defensive ends, and combined with the sheer number of versatile linebackers on the roster, it all translates to three-man fronts.

New England drafted Arkansas defensive end Deatrich Wise and brought in five-tech ends Lawrence Guy from Baltimore and Kony Ealy from Carolina to team with incumbents Alan Branch, Woodrow Hamilton and rising star Trey Flowers - and have a solid base at nose tackle with a rotation of Malcom Brown and Vincent Valentine.  The linebackers will be supplemented in their rotation with box safeties and they drafted Youngstown State's Derek Rivers to be worked into a strong-side linebacker spot formerly held by Jamie Collins.

4. Patriots offensive line will become a top five unit

If there is a concern on the roster, it is the lack of depth on the interior of the Patriots' offensive line - but given health, the starters are young fire-pissers who should solidify the line for a good length of time, as Shaq Mason is a dominating run blocker who pairs with All Pro right tackle Marcus Cannon to present a formidable strong side presence, David Andrews has evolved into one of the better centers in the league and Joe Thuney should make the requisite second-year jump after an up-and-down year at left guard.

The only real question mark is at left tackle, where Nate Solder has had some injury concerns in the past, and will probably preclude him from signing a long-term contract with the team going forward - which is why Belichick drafted Troy's Antonio Garcia and UCLA's Conor McDermott, and which brings us to...

5. Garcia will assume swing tackle role, Fleming and Waddle will be cut

Garcia is the long-term solution at left tackle but will see most of his action this season as a swing tackle, which means that Cam Fleming and LaAdrian Waddle will be out of a job come September, particularly if McDermott turns out to be more than what his draft profile suggests.

Both were quality blind side protectors in college and have basketball backgrounds - but Garcia is the nasty, play-through-the-whistle type with a fluid kick slide that line coaches dream about, and he should be ready to take over for Solder in 2018 while contributing as a sixth offensive lineman this season.  McDermott is a force as a pulling wham blocker in the running game but doesn't (yet) have the transitional skill nor muscular base to hold up in the trenches as a pro, but has a vicious cut block that will serve him well as a swing tackle both this season and next.

6. Belichick will trade, release or otherwise move Jacoby Brissett

Is one little roster spot that important to the Patriots?  Given the volume of talent on both sides of the ball, one roster spot could mean the difference between being able to develop a player on the roster, or losing him to another team.

Last season was the first time in five years that New England had carried three quarterbacks on the roster, and were fine in doing so as they were able to keep most of their developmental prospects, but this season, with so much talent going at least two-deep on the depth chart at just about every position - including quarterback - the Patriots have put themselves in a position where they are going to have to decide whether it is more important to carry three quarterbacks, or to use the roster spot on a prospect elsewhere.

It may come down to Brissett making the 53-man roster and being dealt sometime before the trade deadline.

7. Running backs will produce over 3000 total yards

The last time the New England Patriots had four running backs capable of producing eye-popping numbers individually was in 1978, the season that the Patriots set a rushing record of 3,165 yards that stands to this day - with Sam Cunningham leading that record-setting backfield that included Andy Johnson, Horace Ivory and Don Calhoun, and had substantial help from quarterback Steve Grogan.

This is not to say that the players that populate the Patriots' backfield nearly four decades later are going to challenge that '78 squad for a record, but they are more than capable of contributing more than 3,000 yards from scrimmage to what may well be a combined record-setting New England offense.

Mike Gillislee and Rex Burkhead should be the leaders in the ground game while James White and Dion Lewis will be the primary passing backs - but all of them are capable of lending a hand in both facets of the offensive production.  Judging just from past production, the Patriots should be able to top 2,000 yards on the ground and also clear 1,000 yards through the air, but that all depends on balanced play calling...

8. Offense will be balanced between run and pass, perhaps even be run-heavy

Last season, the Patriots' offense enjoyed balance in their play calling, and the result was a career season for running back LeGarrette Blount and passing back James White, not to mention an offense that could not be stopped when the game was on the line.

It is especially important to feature balance in the offense as quarterback Tom Brady enters his golden years and probably shouldn't take the kind of pounding that being pass-heavy would subject him to. Besides, the Patriots' offensive philosophy - known universally as the Erhardt-Perkins scheme - requires that they "pass to score, then run to win", which in lay terms means that they will use the passing game to gain a lead and then run the ball to kill the clock.

But it's more than that.  The Patriots proved during the Super Bowl that the best way to wear down a defense is to keep them on the field for a protracted amount of time, moving the chains at a snail's pace, which means the short passing game and power running game - and New England foes are bound to see plenty of both.

9. Cooks will work primarily out of the slot

New receiver Brandin Cooks has an extra gear that most pass catchers do not possess.  Sure, he has straight-line speed to leave a vapor trail, but the diminutive Cooks says that his best destiny is coming out of the slot where he can engage that second gear to leave nickel backs eating dust.

"This is an offense that guys do a bunch of different things and I'm looking forward to doing some things that I didn't necessarily have to do in New Orleans" Cooks said in his initial press conference with the Boston media, then qualified his statement by adding, "as far as playing from the slot, I definitely feel that I can do that at a high level."

Ok, so Cooks playing out of the slot isn't necessarily a bold prediction, but it is a departure from what he encountered in New Orleans, where he was the top outside threat in their high flying circus, though coming out of Oregon State he was projected to be an elite slot guy due to his fearlessness in the tall trees and his ability to separate after the catch - and with New England well stocked with outside-the-numbers, downfield pass catchers in Malcolm Mitchell and Chris Hogan, expect to see Cooks blazing trails from the slot.

10. Gronkowski will be named NFL MVP

Yes, I know that there's some scrub named Brady who will be vying for the same award, but with Gronkowski entering 2017 fully healthy and ready for camp, we are about to witness something magical from the four-time All Pro tight end.

Gronk has played in all 16 games in a season just twice in seven seasons, and that was in his rookie and sophomore seasons, the latter in which he obliterated the league's single-season records for receiving yards (1,327) and touchdowns (18) and was named to his first All Pro team.  His 14.7 yards per reception has increased incrementally since then, cresting at an absurd 21.6 last season before going down with back issues.

He was able to do those things because he is as gifted and as natural a tight end as the game has ever seen, and also had the benefit of a certain pair of wide receivers by the names Moss and Welker to take a lot of heat off of him - but at that point in his career, he was primarily a crosser in the second level, but now has evolved into an extraordinary seam threat...

...and with names such as Edelman, Hogan, Mitchell and Cooks - not to mention a dynamic running game - to occupy defenders, teams may have to resort to (gulp!) leaving Gronkowski to single coverage at times.  And if you base his production anywhere close to what he averaged last season before his injury, we could be looking at a 2,000 yard season for Gronkowski.

Far-fetched?  Maybe, but wouldn't it be cool?

11. Garoppolo will receive major extension

Jimmy Garoppolo and Malcolm Butler are both scheduled for unrestricted free agency next March, and are also expected to be two of the top prizes to be had in said free agency.  The Patriots would do well to ensure neither player makes it that far.

Including the amount of cap space the team will be able to roll over into 2018 combined with the expected annual increase in the cap ceiling and space created by expiring contracts, the Patriots will enter the new league year with upwards of $60 million to play around with - plenty of capital to invest in the future of the quarterback position, as securing Jimmy Clipboard's status must be top priority.

Given that Brady wants to play another couple of seasons, the extension would have to be heavy on immediate money in the way of a franchise record-setting signing bonus, with reasonable annual salaries to offset the bonus and spread across multiple seasons - with, of course, some incentive language that provides for incremental increases in salary for him in the event he ends up with major playing time due to a Brady injury.

Butler may be a tougher signing in that he stands to absolutely break the bank next offseason and Belichick may find it too much to have a quarter of his salary cap tied up in cornerbacks, and it is unclear whether the snafu with New Orleans this offseason would affect Butler's decision-making skills if it came to being offered a deal featuring a hometown discount.  Still, there is plenty of cap space to do both deals plus retain core role players.

12. Butler becomes chess piece in secondary

The primary reason that Belichick splurged on former Buffalo Bills cornerback Stephon Gilmore in free agency is that he needed greater size than what he currently had, given the trend of receivers getting bigger, plus he had no clue whether he would still have Butler on the roster come September.

So now the Patriots have what would have to be considered a very good problem to have - what with Gilmore and emerging number-two corner Eric Rowe standing 6' 1", they now have two long press corners that should be able to match up with a foe's larger receivers, Butler can essentially become a chess piece to be positioned to take advantage of any mismatches.

In Belichick's game plan defense, many of his players are movable, and Butler has demonstrated his mettle and toughness time and again against players big and small, and is versatile enough to play press, off man and zone, no matter if he is outside or in the slot - a place that he could end up seeing a lot of, and a scenario that presents Butler with an opportunity to prove to 31 other general managers that he is indeed one of the league's elite.

That would backfire on Belichick, because if Butler has another solid year, someone is going to make him a very rich man.

13. Rivers assumes and excels in the "Collins" role

Derek Rivers played defensive end at Youngstown State and became one of the best pass rushers in Division II - but at 6' 4" and only 250 pounds, Rivers is not the prototypical size for an NFL defensive end.  And while we may see him with his hand in the dirt on occasion, it is more likely that Belichick envisions a role for him not unlike what he envisioned for Jamie Collins coming out of college.

Collins' draft projection is similar in many ways to Rivers' and both were considered as 3-4 rush linebackers.  Like Collins, Rivers will likely be brought along slowly, then unleashed towards the end of the season.  He excels at stringing out plays to the edge and has a non-stop motor - and maybe it's not fair to him to hoist that kind of reputation to reach for, but he's similar athlete.

Reloading The Musket, Part 1 - Brady To Return, But Who Backs Him Up?

Tom Brady 'Indiana Joneses' people.

That unique but not so preposterous analogy of how the New England Patriots' quarterback led their epic comeback in Super Bowl 51 was offered by defensive end Chris Long shortly after his Patriots defeated the Atlanta Falcons in overtime of what will be remembered as the greatest game in the history of the big game - and perhaps the greatest football game of all time.

"He tears people's hearts out." Long offered not long after sheepishly trying to embrace a celebration that he had never witnessed as a football player, "Remember the scene in Indiana Jones where the guy rips the other dude's heart out?  That's what I think when I see Tommy.  He Indiana Joneses people."

You can search far and wide, and never find a more fitting description of Brady.

Despite articles pondering the future of Brady and the fact that his Super Model wife asked him to retire, Brady will be back with the Patriots next season and, presumably, beyond.  This undoubtedly casts a mean shadow on the rest of the teams in the National Football League, but also opens potential opportunity to those teams whose fortunes at the quarterback position have them thinking signal caller in the upcoming draft.

Brady's performance in the Super Bowl and, indeed, the entire 2016 campaign has proven that his skills haven't eroded like those of many of his peers (term loosely offered) who have reached their football golden years - and all you have to do is to watch his laser-like throws in the second half of the Super Bowl to see that for yourself...

...but also click over onto the NFL Network and listen to the Sound Effects broadcasts of the championship game and hear players and announcers use words like "filthy" and "sick" to describe his remarkable placement of balls to his receivers, all of which leave them in position to gain yards after the catch.

Ah, we could go on and on about Brady, but you already know.  So with Brady sticking around for a couple of more seasons, what does that mean for the other two quarterbacks on the New England depth chart?

This is how sick the Patriots' college scouting department is: In 2014 they laid out second round draft capital on Eastern Illinois quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, trumping the Houston Texans, who wanted him at the top of the third round, by four spots.  Houston went on to draft Pittsburgh's Tom Savage, who has been buried behind some very mediocre starting signal callers, including two former Patriots.

Then last season, they went out and drafted North Carolina State's Jacoby Brissett, spending third round draft capital on a player that had been mentored by a guy named Bill Parcells and raved about by his former college offensive coordinator Charlie Weis - both of who said the Patriots are a perfect fit for him.

And they should know, right?

Belichick was the defensive coordinator under Parcells with the New York Giants, Patriots and New York Jets and Weis served as offensive coordinator under Belichick at New England before moving coaching in the college ranks, so they both have a pretty decent idea of the Dark Master's style and system.

But why?  The Patriots already had Garoppolo on board and Brady had already declared that he was going to play well into his forties - so here's the thing, and there's no getting around it: Belichick drafted Brissett because he knew there was going to be a bidding war on Garoppolo between other teams, he just didn't know how intense it would actually be...

...but when Jimmy Clipboard toughed out a season-opening win in Arizona, then lit up the Dolphins  before getting plowed into the ground unnecessarily by Kiki Alonzo and injuring his shoulder, the asking price for the third-year product went up exponentially, especially considering that Brissett played well in relief of Garoppolo.

So now, it's simply a matter of Belichick being patient and letting the trio of interested teams try to outmaneuver each other with compensation packages.

There are currently six teams who are in legitimate need of a starting quarterback, and the three most desperate - The Cleveland Browns, San Francisco 49ers and Chicago Bears - just happen to hold the top three positions in the draft, while teams who have quarterbacks, just not very good ones - the New York Jets, Houston Texans and Denver Broncos - will probably not even get a call back from Belichick if they want to get in on the bidding.

The reason is simple: Those three team are all frequently-played rivals of New England, and there's no way Belichick sends a quarterback of Garoppolo's talent to any of them.  A case could be made to steer clear of Cleveland as well, since they are an AFC team, but the Browns have the most bargaining chips (the top pick in the first and second rounds plus the number twelve overall) and could easily outbid everyone else.

The Jets are a hated division rival, so the only thing Belichick would send them is a whoopie cushion (postage due) and the Broncos have been a thorn in his side for a long time.  The wildcard is the Texans, who overpaid for Brock Osweiller last offseason - and while they are still on the books with him for a hefty cap hit in 2017, Garoppolo would come cheap and offset the money they are paying for Osweiller.

The smart money has Garoppolo going to the 49ers, as new head coach Kyle Shanahan has publicly commented that Prince Ali would be his man, if he could get him, and Belichick would probably deal with him for his second rounder (34th overall) and a myriad of mid-round picks.

Regardless, Jimmy Garoppolo will most likely not be with the Patriots come training camp, which means it will be Brady and the talented youngster Brissett, which is still the best quarterback situation in the league - bar none.

Bills Catch Patriots Short-Handed, Literally; Record Rare Shutout

The New England Patriots are flat out of quarterbacks.

At least, they were on Sunday afternoon, when the obviously damaged rookie signal caller Jacoby Brissett gave it the old college try what with a makeshift tape job around his injured thumb that fooled no one and an offensive game plan that rivaled Ben & Jerry's ice cream for vanilla content - but a college try wasn't going to work against a professional football team...

...even against the Buffalo Bills, who hadn't had a win against the Patriots that was significant in the AFC East standings in five years and hadn't shut them out in a baker's dozen, and certainly not with a series of play calls in the first half that made one think that offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels had Herman Boone in his headset, running the veer and assuring boy wonder that it was just like

Quarterback Jacoby Brissett coughs up one of five Patriots' fumbles

novocaine, give it time and it always works.

The defensive game plan was a little tougher to figure out.

One would think that with Buffalo's deep threat Sammy Watkins on the shelf, that the Patriots would have concentrated with stopping the run and keeping quarterback Tyrod Taylor in the pocket, not allowing him to the wings where he does much of his best work - and it's not as if Taylor set the world on fire against New England, but he really didn't need to.

Buffalo artfully mixed the run and the pass to their advantage as New England appeared to play full coverage down the field to eliminate speed merchant Marquis Goodwin from the equation - presumably to force Buffalo to have to grind out yardage and use up time off the clock - and while that goes against every tenet of defensive football, the impact of the plan would have been successful had the Patriots gotten anything out of the offense at all...

...as confirmed not only by the meager point that Buffalo managed, they won 16-0, but also by the fact that they managed only nine possessions - and after the initial surge to start the game in which they built a thirteen point lead on a touchdown and two field goals on their first three drives, the Patriots' held the Bills to just three more points while forcing four punts.

It makes a certain sort of sense, an overmatched team playing a bend-but-don't-break style of defense, giving up yardage at a clip of four yards per play and making critical stops on third down, the relying on your special teams to flip field position to give your offense a chance to put enough points on the board to counter. 

If it works, you're a genius and if it doesn't - well - you get what we saw on Sunday afternoon.

Ideally, the defense did what they had to do even though it didn't play to their strengths, but the special teams - especially the kick return teams - were atrocious and the offense was so imbalanced that the Bills were ready for everything New England tried to do, and even when the Patriots got something positive going, penalties murdered their momentum.

The limitations to the forced game plan eschewed balance, though the final numbers - 27 passing plays compared to 22 running plays - are deceiving.  The Patriots totaled just 17 offensive plays in the first half, with 14 of those handoffs.  The numbers reversed in the second half as Brissett, bad thumb and all, threw the ball 24 times and handed off just eight times.

The disparity between the number of plays run by each team, 71-47 in favor of Buffalo, wasn't as glaring considering that the Patriots were more efficient with their plays - gaining nearly a yard-and-a-half more per play than Buffalo - and also considering that the Patriots had a whopping 139 yards erased by penalty...

...ninety of that on the first offensive play of the game on what was deemed to be offensive pass interference on receiver Chris Hogan, calling back a beautiful catch and run in the flat by Julian Edelman, and apparently deflating the Patriots' offense at the same moment.

How badly deflated? well, considering that the Patriots had just one first down at halftime and converted just once on third down the entire game in twelve tries, it is safe to assume that New England blew their first half wad on that first play from scrimmage. 

The only thing that New England's offense seemed to have going for it was their play calling on the first play of possessions, gaining a first down seven different times, four of those coming via Brissett finding tight end Martellus Bennett, who had something of a career day, his 109 receiving yards representing just his fourth 100 yard receiving day and his 58 yard catch and run in the second quarter the longest of his career.

The only other thing that was working was the running game, Patriots' power back LeGarrette Blount rumbling for 54 yards on 13 carries until McDaniels all but abandoned the ground attack in the second half after featuring it almost exclusively in the first half - obviously, the balance was there for New England overall, but it turned out to be a tale of two halfs with no balance in the play calling otherwise.

For all of the grumbling, the defense played decently, giving up 16 points and an acceptable 248 passing yards despite being on the field for just shy of 40 minutes.

Still, the scapegoat for the defense in this scenario was cornerback Logan Ryan, who drew underneath coverages on tight ends and running backs and, on a few less-than-memorable occasions, on the Bills' speedy wideouts, but the fact of the matter is that Ryan, Justin Coleman and even Malcolm Butler gave up key receptions that extended Buffalo drives.

On third down, the Bills were able to convert seven times out of 15 attempts, with Ryan and Butler giving up one a piece and Coleman two, but where the Bills were really successful was on second down, where they were able to pick up half of their twenty-four on the game, many of them on second and long plays.

The fact that Ryan was playing what was essentially the role of a strong safety spoke to the weird game plan, as the three safety Big Nickle look that has been successful against the likes of Arizona, Miami and Houston was abandoned in favor of a standard nickle, with Ryan and Justin Coleman being abused by the quick Buffalo receivers...

...and combined with Jabaal Sheard and Chris Long assigned to funnel everything towards the middle of the field, the Bills were able to run off left tackle - where Sheard or Long would have been otherwise - for a significant portion of their rushing yardage.

The good news for the defense is that they adjusted well after spotting Buffalo their thirteen point lead. In that onslaught to start the game, Buffalo picked up 244 of their 378 total yards for the game, allowing just 83 passing yards in the second half to go along with 51 rushing yards, a terrific effort despite being n the field for so long in the first half.

It goes without saying that having a healthy quarterback would have made a huge difference for New England's offense - either a healthy Brissett or Jimmy Garoppolo would have been enough to at least match what Buffalo could muster - but now the Patriots have back their regular starting signal caller as Tom Brady's suspension is over and he's set to take over, tanned, rested and ready.

"Flexbone" Gives Old-School Fans Hope For Continuation Of Power Running Game

"For certain, the entire Patriots' offense has a different look and feel to it this season, and is steaming towards a huge departure from the finesse, take-what-the-defense-gives-you routine that has gotten them to five consecutive AFC Title games and won them one Super Bowl to what appears to be a return to the physicality of the millennial teams that won by punching folks in the mouth and not worrying too much about repercussions.

And that's what football is about, after all, right?  That's why these guys are decked out in all kinds of padding, helmets, cups, etc., because football is a physical sport - three yards and a cloud of dust. Despite some "innovators" trying to make it about over the top speed, it still comes down to being able to take what you want, a violent game of ground acquisition in which to be successful, an offense must be balanced in their attack." - Foxborough Free Press, August 21, 2016

Whether by design, surprise or pure perverted curiosity, the New England Patriots are about to pass the quarter pole of the 2016 National Football League season leading all of professional football in rushing yards and their "Bell Cow" power back, LeGarrette Blount leading the league in individual rushing.

LeGarrette Blount leads the league in rushing - as unlikely a six word sentence as you may ever see - the man whom his fans call "Blount Force Trauma" is currently on pace for 400 carries and 1,600 yards, leading his Patriots to what translates to 2,400 team rushing yards on the year on an absurd 580 carries.

What we are witnessing however is not the rebirth of the 1978 team that still holds the record for the most rushing yards in a season - a ridiculous 3,165 yards on 671 carries - but at this moment in time, the 55-45 ratio between run and pass feels very much like the run heavy teams of the late 1970's, led by tough young mobile quarterbacks who were fully integrated into the running game.

Of course, we are not likely to see a renaissance back to the days of Sam Cunningham, Craig James and Steve Grogan for two very important reasons. First, there were five different backs that played a central role in setting that unbreakable record, and this years' version has just Blount and whoever is covering for quarterback Tom Brady while he's serving a suspension...

...and secondly, well, we're talking about Tom Brady here.

Third-year backup Jimmy Garoppolo started the first two games of Brady's four-game suspension and rookie Jacoby Brissett started the third game while Garoppolo nursed a bad wing, but whoever starts the last game of the suspension will be more of a running threat than Brady ever was or ever will be.  Brady's game is flinging the ball around all over the place, targeting like 43 different receivers.

Just that fact alone makes the prospects of seeing this wave of unadulterated power running and negative balance in the passing game implausible, but most offensive linemen run faster than Brady's sloth-like 5.28 - which was his forty-time in the combine sixteen years and one torn ACL ago, and he hasn't gotten any faster with age - so about all Brady is worth in that capacity is his patented nose dive on 3rd and short situations.

But that's all the team has ever needed from Brady, and he has rings and trophies that speak to his success in those undertakings - but that doesn't mean that the team should discontinue or even discount what the team has been able to accomplish on the ground to start this season, and especially since the opposing defense knows what's coming, but can't stop it - at least not for sixty minutes.

Many find fault with Blount, with most of those folks having the opinion that he is an all-or-nothing type of back, meaning either he gets stuffed for no gain or he breaks off something proper - and it's true, to an extent - but the issue through the years since Antowain Smith and Corey Dillon prowled the backfield is that there has been no patience with the running game, or at least very little, and that affects how effective the running game can be...

...as the running game, if used properly, is the one entity with a football game that seems to get stronger as the game wears on, and New England appears to be able to translate that into an insurmountable advantage - fitting right in with the Patriots' version of the Erhardt-Perkins offensive philosophy that calls for the offense to "Pass to score, run to win".

Until Stevan Ridley came along a full five seasons after Dillon flamed out, there really wasn't a back that anyone felt comfortable giving the ball to more than a dozen times a game, but by that time Patriots' head ball coach Bill Belichick was enamoured with a little thing called the Two Tight End Offense or, as it turns out to be, the Flexbone formation.

Traditionally, the Flexbone is a variation of the old college Wishbone - only instead of having a fullback flanked by two running backs in the backfield, the Patriots' version replaces those halfbacks with tight ends and flanks each tackle with them, and the fullback becomes the power back or, given the Patriots' skill with third-down backs, a passing back...

Ordinarily, this would be more of a running formation, but with Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett being the Patriots' tight ends, the Patriots are able to line up in the formation and the defense will have no clue what's coming between a run and a pass, or which direction the play is going, because Gronkowski and Bennett are of the elite blocking variety and, coupled with their pass catching prowess, they comprise the most lethal set of tight ends in the business.

All that means is that the Patriots can have either seven offensive linemen in the running game, or up to five legitimate pass catching options in the passing game - give or take depending on picking up blitzers and such - and all without switching personnel, meaning that New England could go uptempo if need be to trap the opposing defense in mismatches.

This scenario is the sum of Belichick's two tight end dream mixed with a physical offensive line that found it's groove early and is building towards being a very good unit, pass protecting with technique and run blocking with a nastiness not see in Foxborough since Logan Mankins' heyday.

All the Patriots have to do is stick to a reasonable balance when Brady comes back, and they will have not only the most efficient offense in the league, but also one that is nearly impossible to stop.

Not being under any delusion that the volume of running plays currently in effect will continue - as 36 carries per game is a pace too invasive on the passing game with Brady under center - the way this offense has been built, anything less than 25 running plays a game would be a shame, and a waste of the talent on every level of the offense.

Allen, Special Teams Lead Patriots' Punking Of Texans

 If Ryan Allen isn't named the special teams player of the week, then there is no justice in the National Football League.

Oh, wait...

Regardless of how one feels about the brand of justice dished out by the league office, it's difficult to envision any punter having a better game than Ryan did against the hapless Houston Texans on Thursday night, his effort helping the seriously short-handed New England Patriots hammer the favored Texans by a tally of 27-0.

Brandon Bolden celebrates his forced fumble

It was weird game, which is to be expected when the Patriots were starting a rookie third-stringer at quarterback with his backup being an ex-college quarterback turned receiver who has thrown exactly one pass in the NFL, and also considering that the New England defense was coming off of a horrific second half against the Dolphins just four days earlier...

...so it goes to figure that head ball coach Bill Belichick would devise a game plan to grind time off of the clock on offense and task his defense to take away Houston's top offensive threats -  both things made exponentially easier by Allen's clutch performance.

The left-footer was called on seven times on Thursday night and averaged a stout 47.6 yards per kick, but the sheer quantity of punts - the seven was one more than he had for the season, combined, coming into the game - took a back seat to the quality of the kicks.

Each of his kicks pinned the Texans inside their 20 yard line, and all but one inside their 15, forcing Houston quarterback Brock Osweiler to start drives deep in his own territory, needing thirty-to-forty yards just to get into Patriots' territory which, thanks to a stifling defensive effort, the Texans didn't accomplish until there was a buck-thirty left in the third quarter.

In fact, so determined was the effort from the punt unit and the Patriots' defense, who forced one turnover themselves, that the deepest the Texans penetrated into New England territory was the Patriots' 35 yard line.

In contrast, the Patriots' offense enjoyed excellent field position all evening.

Five times rookie quarterback Jacoby Brissett started drives inside Houston territory, finding paydirt on three of those occasions - but Brissett also led two drives resulting in field goals that started deep in Patriots' territory and, most importantly, ate up over eleven combined minutes of game clock in the process, including a 13 play, 71 yard drive to start the second half that sucked any life the Texans thought they had right out of them, chewing up nearly seven minutes.

That drive produced the second of kicker Stephen Gostkowski's field goals, giving New England a thirteen point edge - the Texans fumbled away the ensuing kickoff,  and six plays later running back LeGarrette Blount found the end zone from a yard out and the rout - the unimaginable rout - was on.

Blount put the game away just minutes later with a 41 yard sprint to the end zone, the only drama remaining after that was whether or not the New England defense could preserve the shutout - which they did as Ryan pinned the Texans down deep in their half of the field twice more, the defense also holding Houston on two consecutive fourth down conversion attempts.

Brissett was efficient, going 11 of 19 for 103 yards through the air, but the biggest damage the rookie did was on the ground, rushing six times for 48 yards (not including kneel downs), including a razor sharp 27 yard scamper off of the boot option for a touchdown, completely undressing Texan's safety Andre Hal with an inside feign at the five yard line, then diving into the end zone to give the Patriots a 10-0 lead that they would carry into the room at halftime...

...Blount scoring twice in the second half as he wore down the Houston defense with a 24 carry, 105 yard effort in spite of the Texans knowing what was coming.  In fairness the Houston defenders were stout against the running game early in the contest, but offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels stuck with his game plan to run right at the Texans, and it eventually paid off as Blount found more and more room to run as the game wore on.

The running game actually produced more yardage than the passing game did for McDaniels' charges, as the Patriots involved their receivers on the ground with Julian Edelman and tight end Martellus Bennett each getting carries in addition to their minimal contributions through the air - in fact, the Patriots' 185 yards on the ground on 39 carries was the most for a Patriots' team since the 2014 season, when former-Patriot Jonas Gray and then Blount went off on Indianapolis in consecutive meetings.

The effort also marked the third straight game with at least 100 rushing yards, a string that hasn't happened in four seasons which, combined with the first shutout for the Patriots' defense in five seasons, made this game a rare treat for Patriot fans, a treat that probably would not have been possible without the clutch performance by Allen.

But that wasn't all for the special teams, who also forced two fumbles on kickoff returns that the limited Patriots' offense translated into fourteen points, more than enough to hold off a clearly overmatched and outcoached Texans' team who fell from the ranks of the undefeated with the loss and now has ten full nightmare-filled days to think about how they were man-handled once again by the Patriots...

...and New England has the same time frame to come up with a game plan to take on the Buffalo Bills, who are a cumulative train wreck on defense - so whether the quarterback is going to be Brissett or Jimmy Garoppolo, who was inactive on Thursday night due to a sprained AC joint in his throwing shoulder, it's beginning to look a lot like the Patriots are going to ride out Tom Brady's four-game suspension undefeated.

And that, just like everything else about this New England squad, would be surprising - even if it shouldn't be...

Balance Gives Brissett, Patriots' Offense Reason For Optimism

The New England Patriots have many things going against them as they prepare to entertain the Houston Texans at Gillette Stadium on Thursday evening.

After all, they are dealing with injuries to many key contributors, including All-World tight end Rob Gronkowski, scat back Dion Lewis, right tackle Sebastian Vollmer, linebacker Dont'a Hightower and defensive end Rob Ninkovich, causing them to go into games already on the second tier of depth along the offensive line, at middle linebacker and at passing back.

Brissett, McDaniels and Belichick should be able to game plan effecitively

But the major point of concern is at the most important position on offense, where the team is now working on their third layer at quarterback, preparing to start a rookie at the position for the first time since Drew Bledsoe arrived on the scene 23 years ago, against a Texans' defense that hasn't allowed a touchdown in six consecutive quarters and have sacked opposing quarterbacks nine times in two games...

 ...ranked third in the NFL against the pass and third overall in total defense, limiting opposing offenses to an average drive time of less than two minutes.

That is stout in every sense of the word, but the one way to negate that pass rushing advantage for the Texans, and also to give rookie quarterback Jacoby Brissett time to find his multitude of pass catching options in the pattern is to achieve balance on offense - which thus far has been just as easily done as said in the first two weeks of the NFL Season.

Unfortunately for the Chicago Bears and the Kansas City Chiefs, they didn't stick with their running games against Houston enough to create that balance and both ended up losing close games despite overwhelming success against the Texans' run defense.

By contrast, the Patriots have the seventh-best rushing game in the league, averaging 134 yards per game and have the fourth-ranked rusher in the league in LeGarrette Blount.  Some will argue that New England and Blount achieved those rankings by running the ball more than most other teams - they are tops in the league with 69 running plays - but when compared to having 69 passing attempts, it is safe to say that New England's offense has been successful because it has achieved balance.

That's right, that seven letter word that was barely mentioned in and around Foxborough last season is front and center this year, pretty much by default as the Patriots' coaching staff seeks to put temporary starting quarterbacks in the best position to succeed - surrounding them with a Murderer's Row of skill position players...

...but the players that benefit most from the balance between the running and passing games are the offensive linemen, who performed so well in the season opener at Arizona and then again last Sunday against the Dolphins that they have been the unsung heroes of the first two weeks of the season.

That would have been hard to imagine given the fact that center David Andrews was the only true regimented starter from last season who suited up for New England in their opener, keeping then-starter Jimmy Garoppolo upright for the most part and giving the running game a fighting chance, especially on the edges where they should look again on Thursday night.

Against the Cardinals top five ranked run defense, the Patriots ran predominantly right behind tight end Martellus Bennett and right tackle Marcus Cannon and averaging four yards per carry, and also took their chances going left for five yards per carry, while the tag team of Calais Campbell, Josh Mauro and Frostee Rucker clogged the middle against Patriots' rookie guards Joe Thuney and Ted Karras...

...the former being replaced by the injured Shaq Mason at right guard when Karras struggled to anchor against Campbell. Mason, broken hand and all, and Karras rotated in and out against the Dolphins - but just as against the Cardinals, the interior linemen could not generate much push in the running game up the gut.

That shouldn't be an issue against Houston, as their Achilles heel is their run defense, which has allowed five yards per carry - third-worst in the league - and when running up the middle and around left end, the numbers are far more dismal for the Texans, as they have given up a whopping eight yards per carry up the gut, by far the worst number in the NFL.

Where the Patriots don't want to run is to the strong side, where the beastly J.J. Watt has his hand in the dirt and pocket-wrecker Whitney Mercilus lined up behind him, both stout against the run and absolutely murder on offensive linemen when rushing the passer - rather, the Patriots should test former teammate Vince Wilfork over center and on the weak side where defensive end Jadeveon Clowney and Will-linebacker John Simon are superior pass rushers, but have difficulty setting the edge.

On the interior of the second level where one would normally find middle linebacker Brian Cushing is depth reserve Max Bullough, who at 6' 3" and 245 pounds is light for the position, meaning that he can't take on the guard or center on the second level to free up second-year Joker Benardrick McKinney to stuff the run, nor can the two switch positions because McKinney isn't nearly the athlete that Cushing or Bullough are, and the results would be pretty much the same as they are now, maybe even worse...

...because the Patriots have the ability to drive linebackers out of the running lanes with pulling tackles and tight ends hitting the gaps before the linebackers have the time to react. For the Patriots to accomplish this they will have to run out of 22 or 12 personnel packages with Martellus Bennett and/or Rob Gronkowski pulling to the weak side to free up left tackle Cam Fleming to go after Bullough.

But what is going to help Brissett and the Patriots' offense the most is the aforementioned balance.

Brissett has become a three-step drop, rythym thrower, whose reliance on the short passing game could prove to be a fatal flaw in the offensive philosophy, as the short game allows the safeties to cheat towards the line of scrimmage, stepping into the passing lanes or plugging the running gaps that Bullough and McKinney can't get to.

To combat this, the balance achieved allows for the play action that will freeze linebackers and safeties alike, and will aid the offensive linemen in setting their anchor in pass protection - but it will also take Gronkowski or Bennett up the seam to eliminate the safety and some intermediate routes on the part of Malcolm Mitchell and Chris Hogan, requiring Brissett to change up on his dropbacks and, hopefully, getting the pass rushers to commit to poor angles.

The one thing that the Patriots don't want to do is to get Brissett in a roving pocket on the boot action, particularly to the right where both Watt and Mercilus are capable of disrupting the moving pocket, and which closes off half of the field, making coverages easier for the Texans' secondary.  The only thing that should be going outside the pocket is the pitch play to Blount.

Against the Dolphins, Blount took pitches from the quarterbacks while left tackle Nate Solder pulls to the outside to lead interference, allowing Blount to get up to full speed before hitting the line of scrimmage, the result being a lot of extra yardage and many frightened defensive backs who are rightfully wary of taking on a 250 pound running back at full speed.

Along those same lines, don't be surprised to see Brissett in the shotgun with either Blount, James White or D.J. Foster flanking him, and from where Brissett can either hand the ball off on a delayed draw, swing the ball out to one of them on the wheel route or in the flat on the jailbreak screen, or just keep them in to pick up the inevitable blitz coming from the second level.

In that formation, it gives Blount seven yards to get up to speed to hit the hole with force, and allows the vision and elusiveness of White and Foster to manifest, and even gives Brissett an opportunity to change the play out of a safe, limited set of options.

Because balance is everything.  Balance makes the defense have to defend the entire field.  Balance causes hesitation in the pass rush.  Balance opens up space at the top of routes for receivers to gain separation and balance helps the offense dictate to the defense rather than just having to take what the defense gives them.

There is enough weapons and plenty enough skill along an improving offensive line for head ball coach Bill Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to devise a game plan to put Brissett in a position to succeed - but after that, it's all up to Brissett to make the most out of his opportunity.

Blount, Bennett Carry Patriots To Smashmouth Win Over Dolphins; Garoppolo "Day-To-Day"

It's not often that an injury to your backup quarterback takes all the wind out of a stadium, but when New England Patriots' Jimmy Garoppolo went down in the second quarter of their matchup with the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, you could have heard a pin drop.

Or maybe it was the sound of the Dolphins clawing their way back into a game that seemed completely out of reach before Garoppolo went down, or perhaps the sound of the Patriots' offensive machine gearing down to accommodate rookie signal caller Jacoby Brissett's inexperience, or maybe even the eerie echo of divisional games gone rogue...

...but whatever it was that wafted into Patriots' fans ears on an humid, overcast day at Gillette Stadium, it will prove to be nothing compared to the doom and gloom that will overtake social media and the Boston-area press after a 31-24 Patriots victory over the Dolphins that was much harder than it had to be.

The Dolphins had no answer for Garoppolo, who looked ready to break out in a very proper manner until linebacker Kiki Alonso drove the third year signal caller into the ground, his full 240 pounds compressing Garoppolo's shoulder, causing a sprained AC joint that eliminated the rising star from the game with five minutes to play in the first half.

Initial reports had the Eastern Illinois product suffering from a broken collarbone, which more than likely would have ended his season with regular starter Tom Brady returning from suspension in three weeks, but the final diagnosis turned out to be a strained AC joint in his right (throwing) shoulder, from which an athlete can heal in anywhere from seven to ten days...

...with Patriots' head ball coach Bill Belichick stating that Garoppolo's status is "Day to Day", so best case scenarios have Brissett under center for Thursday night's contest against the Houston Texans,with a decent chance of Garoppolo returning for what should be his final start against the Buffalo Bills ten days later.

The Patriots seemed to teeter on the brink of collapse after the Garoppolo injury, especially on the defensive side of the ball, but on offense, Brissett had two weapons that stepped up and most likely saved the Patriots from blowing a 24 point lead and losing their first game of the season, both of them doing their best work when New England needed them the most.

Running back LeGarrette Blount and Tight end Martellus Bennett came up huge, extending second half drives with clutch performances for the ages - Blount running for 129 yards against a very good Dolphins front seven and Bennett reaching triple digits in yardage for just the third time in his career, and even that almost wasn't enough.

Regardless, football purists among Patriots' nation had to have been thrilled with what turned out to be the very essence of the Erhardt-Perkins concept-based offensive scheme, the mantra of which begs for the offense to "Pass to score, the run to win." - and as it turns out, the Patriots followed the philosophy to the letter.

Before he went down, Garoppolo had three touchdown passes and had led the Patriots out to a quick 24-0 lead, and then Blount ran through and over the Dolphins' defense to kill just enough clock to win the game - in between, the Dolphins' offense provided the rest of the league with a blueprint as to how to attack the Patriots' defense, and only Blount's third quarter touchdown run prevented a complete New England collapse.

The "blueprint", of course, is the tactic of clogging the intermediate and underneath zones with humanity while occasionally targeting deep in an effort to wear down the cornerbacks - something that New England does with their offense as well, and it worked like a charm for the Dolphins, though it took going into the room at halftime and adjusting the schematic a bit...

...an adjustment that saw Miami outscore New England 24-7 over the remainder of the game and, one could reasonably state, could have been more were it not for the heroics of Blount and Bennett on the offensive side of the ball.

Of Blount's 129 yards, 96 of those came in the second half as the Patriots ran the ball with a determination not seen in these parts in a decade or more, and of Bennett's 114 receiving yards, 68 of those came on passes from Brissett, who seemed comfortable with the idea of turning to hand the ball to Blount or finding Bennett's sure hands in the pattern.

It goes without saying that if Brissett is indeed the starting quarterback against Houston on Thursday night, the gameplan should include heavy elements of each factor, possibly even going 22 or even 23 personnel packages built to run the ball and consume the game clock, but Belichick hasn't even ruled out Garoppolo playing against the Texans - and he has a little bit of recent history to draw on.

Last January, Pittsburgh Steelers' quarterback Ben Roethlisberger also sprained the AC joint in his throwing shoulder but, surprisingly, came back to start the next game, the violence filled 18-16 win over Cincinnati in the wild card round of the 2015 playoffs, throwing for nearly 400 yards.

No wonder Belichick is calling Garoppolo's condition Day-to-Day.

"Injuries to the AC joint are so varied" said orthopaedic surgeon Walt Lowe at the time of Roethlisberger's injury, "but there are a lot of things that are safe to make players comfortable and able to compete. I've seen players come back quickly from such injuries"

Lowe went on to list the available treatment options to prepare a quarterback to play with the injury, including steroid injections and platelet-rich-plasma injections.

"If it's just a sprain, it can take several weeks to feel better" Lowe continued, "but in a high-level athlete it's not unheard of to put some medication inside the joint to get someone a little more pain relief to play sooner."

Realistically, getting Brissett ready to take starting snaps on Thursday night seems to be the prudent direction, and if the Patriots achieve the same sort of balance that they have in their first two games of the season - both close wins - it is entirely possible that New England can continue their season opening winning streak.

Mail Call! Talking Economics, Flower Power In This Week's Q & A...

Flowers' game is power, as exhibited by this strip sack and run for touchdown against the Saints last week

How much does dead money hits figure into whether a player makes a team?  What about cap savings?

In answering this week's mailbag questions, I did a little research on those two variables and discovered that Patriots general manager Bill Belichick has pretty  much set his roster in stone for a couple of units simply by financial means.

For example, wide receivers Chris Hogan and Danny Amendola are virtual locks for the roster with dead money hits if cut or traded totaling $7.5 million and $4 million, respectively, in addition to piling millions on top of the salary cap to match guaranteed money owed both.  In fact that $11.5 million exceeds the sum of every other receiver on the Patriots' roster, combined.

The same goes for the offensive line, as Nate Solder carries a $14.3 million dead money hit if cut or traded, while Sebastian Volmer, Jonathan Cooper and Marcus Cannon carry $2 million, $2.3 million and $1.3 million dead money hits, respectively - and when you have that kind of money being shelled out for a player who doesn't even play for you any longer, that's problematic.

So when wondering why, when you see a Cannon or Cooper or Amendola on the roster, keep in mind that economics play at least a partial role in the selection process...

...now onto this week's questions:

IMO, Brissett looked pretty good and could give Jimmy a run for his money.  Do you see him starting any of the first four games? - Todd (Connecticut, via Pats Fans Pre-Belichick)

Brissett has a rocket launcher for an arm, but also seems to have a little Ryan Mallett in him. That is, potentially, a bad combination.

Mallett had two really bad habits: first, he trusted his velocity too much and was always trying to fit the ball into a window that was open just a crack - we saw that a couple of times on Thursday night with Brissett, and we also saw another of Mallett's habits of leading his receiver into trouble - but that was just Brissett's first preseason game ever.

Mallett never did correct his deficiencies, some say due to his lackadaisical work ethic, but that has never been an issue with Brissett.

Now, keep in mind that I said he had "a little" of Mallett to his game.  The things that I liked when I watched and re-watched the game was his pocket presence and the fact that he worked very well from under center, which I think Belichick would prefer his quarterbacks to do more this season, as it both promotes balance and is better for masking pre-snap intentions.

That said, Brissett will probably one day be a better option for the Patriots, but Belichick isn't going to blow his opportunity to showcase Garoppolo to other teams, as I truly believe he could be gone as early as this year's trading deadline.

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Do you think Gaffney could emerge as New England's top back this year? - Paul (Massachusetts via Pats Fans Pre-Belichick)

I'd like to see Gaffney play with the first team before answering this completely, but I will tell you that I've liked his game in college and I've been a proponent of his getting an opportunity to earn a roster spot - and Belichick has obviously kept him around for two seasons for a reason.

The one player that he has to perform better than is LeGarrette Blount, who had a miserable preseason opener, missing holes and averaging just 2.2 yards per carry .  Gaffney had that great touchdown run where he cut back against the grain and outran folks to the end zone, but gained only 20 yards in his other eight carries, a 2.5 yards per carry clip.

In all honesty, Brandon Bolden looked to be the best back on the field, followed closely by a confident looking James White.  The question may be, does Brandon Bolden get more work out of the backfield and less on special teams?  Would Belichick reverse his philosophies on special teams to accommodate more Bolden in the offense?

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Because Nate Washington can separate and get deep, do you think he will have a place on this team? - Daniel (Maryland via Foxborough Free Press)

At first, I thought he was going to go the route of Ochocinco, another in a long line of wideouts who couldn't connect with the playbook - but with the news that he's finally getting with the program, I think he has a shot...

...not a good shot, more like an I-need-an-injury-happen-to -a-guy-higher-on-the-depth-chart shot, but there is a chance.  There are two guys standing in his way: Aaron Dobson and Keshawn Martin, both of whom have good speed and can take the top off of a defense - he could beat out either or both, but he has another disadvantage, that being on the salary cap.

To cut Washington, the Patriots would absorb only a $60k dead money hit while cutting either Dobson or Martin would cost them $218k and $600k, respectively, while his cap savings would be equivalent to Dobson's but way less than Martin's.

Does any of that matter?  If it comes down to those numbers, it probably will - and a lot depends on how many receivers Belichick decides to keep.

Washington has been an iron man, playing every game for nine consecutive years with the Steelers and Titans before being deactivated for two games last season in Houston due to a hamstring issue, and then was clearly not himself in the post season due to a hip injury - so he has endurance and experience going for him, but being on the wrong side of 30, is his body breaking down from a long football career?

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How many receivers do you think we'll carry on the 53-man roster?  - Bobby (Massachusetts via Foxborough Free Press)

Five, maybe six.

The breakdown is pretty simple, as Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, Matt Slater and newcomers Chris Hogan and rookie Malcolm Mitchell are givens, so assuming that Belichick decides to keep six receivers, there will be a dogfight between six other players for one roster spot.

Of course, what dictates the actual number will be how many tight ends that Patriots keep, as it appears on first glance that there could be as many as four big fellas on the roster come final cuts, as Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett are obvious keepers, while Clay Harbor carries a $400k dead money hit if cut and sophomore A.J. Derby looks too good to expose to waivers.

On the other hand, the presence of Bennett actually gives Belichick some leverage in how many tackles he keeps on the offensive line, as the former Bear is better at run blocking than any of the swing tackle depth on the roster.

So, if keeping six receivers, the scenario in the question above suffices for who the last receiver on the roster will be.

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How important is it for New England to get Trey Flowers on the field more this season? - Daniel (Maryland via Foxborough Free Press)

As important as anything else they do on defense this season.

Flowers is a physical presence whose game has always been about power.  Forget about what is supposed to be prototypical for defensive ends in the NFL, and forget about the fact that Flowers is essentially the same size and body build as Dont'a Hightower - Flowers is a flip-flop defensive end, meaning that he possesses the skill set to play on either the strong or weak sides in a 4-2-5.

The reason being that he dominated the SEC while at Arkansas, possessing a bull rusher's frame and the lateral agility and strength to stack and shed blockers on the edge against the run.  In fact, Flowers was the top-ranked edge setting run defender in all of college football in his senior year.

We didn't see much of Flowers last season as he dealt with shoulder issues, but in one preseason game against the Saints, he reminded everyone of why Belichick was shocked when Flowers was still available in the fourth round of last year's draft, after analyst and former coach Jon Gruden called Flowers "The next Lamar Woodley".

It is essential to get Flowers on the field this season as he is the logical choice to rotate in with, and eventually replace, elder statesman Rob Ninkovich on the strong side.  As we saw on Thursday night and throughout his college career, Flowers' power is just too much for most tackles.

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What are the chances that Martellus Bennett has better numbers this year over Gronk? - Chris (Pennsylvania via The Belichickians)

That really all depends on how teams plan on attacking the two gargoyles.

Gronkowski does his best work up the seam and in the flat, while Bennett is more of an intermediate zone possession receiver, who just happens to be enormous.  They are both world class run blockers who take pride in their skill.

Both deserve double teams, but there isn't a team in the NFL that can afford to spend so much coverage on just two players, so more often that not, one of them is going to be single covered, and most likely with a linebacker - particularly if the Patriots can achieve some semblance of balance in the offense, bring play action into the equation, which freezes safeties just long enough for the big fellas to get a running start.

And with the multitude of weapons the Patriots have for the defenses to contend with, it may not make any difference what kind of game plan an opponent comes up with, because short of an offensive coordinator sending eight on a blitz on every down, there may be no stopping the Patriots' offense.

So to answer your question, it does depend on which gargoyle is targeted by defensive game planners, but I think you are going to see fairly even numbers between them, barring significant injury, of course.

"Jimmy Clipboard" No Longer: Brady's Decision Elevates Garoppolo To Opening Day Starter

"For the milk drinkers, the thought is that Garoppolo will be used as more of a game manager, not unlike what Matt Cassell experienced initially in 2008 when Brady tore his ACL - only this time Brady will be coming back, so we may not see a true body of work from him.  But the whiskey crowd wants to see the young fire-pisser jump in feet first from the very first possession, staking a claim as a legitimate professional quarterback.

The latter scenario seems to be the one gaining steam, as a decent performance by Garoppolo nets the coaching staff and Patriots' fans a little more solace in moving on from Brady in a few years - either that or it gives defacto General Manager Bill Belichick a solid gold trade chip moving into Jimmy's contract season - either way, Garoppolo is auditioning for something, which is a win in Belichick's book, and hopefully four wins on the scoreboard." - Foxborough Free Press, May 3, 2016

Think what you want about New England Patriots' quarterback Tom Brady's decision to give up on his last bastion of justice and accept a four game suspension imposed by the NFL for his alleged role in the so-called "Deflategate" saga - and there are many opinions - but there are just as many angles to consider...

...not the least of which that Brady's comfort level in leaving his offense in the hands of Jimmy Garoppolo, which has to be pretty high or that may have been a factor in accepting the suspension or not - or it could be precisely the opposite, where Brady chose to accept the suspension and serve the first four games so as not to potentially miss any important games down the stretch.

Either way, it doesn't matter.  Garoppolo is turning in his clipboard for a green dot.

Garoppolo is set to become only the third quarterback to start a football game for the Patriots since Brady took over the offense early in the 2001 season, with Matt Cassel being the only other - a stat that promotes a rather amazing streak of endurance and consistency on the part of Brady.  But as mentioned in the article cited above, this is a significant crossroads for Garoppolo.

This isn't just some hold-the-fort-until-Brady-returns job, the fate of at least one franchise is on the line, and probably a few more, as quarterback-hungry teams will be watching Garoppolo very closely.

The Patriots are at a crossroads as well, drafting North Carolina State quarterback Jacoby Brissett using third round draft capital, which is nothing to sneeze at considering New England had been stripped of a first round selection in this past April's NFL Draft, meaning that he is all but assured a spot on the Patriots'53 man roster - which presents an interesting scenario.

Should Garoppolo play up to his enormous potential, there are sure to be General Managers and head coaches around the league that would see him as worth giving up high draft capital to the Patriots to secure his services, probably dollars better spent than using said draft pick to take a top college prospect whose transition from college to the NFL is hardly a given.

Garoppolo is in his third season, is only 24 years old and has a skill set that enables him to be successful in just about any offensive philosophy.

Coming out of Eastern Illinois, Garoppolo was just a blip on the draft radar, most prognostication sites rating him as no better than a fifth-round pick - that is, until Garoppolo got to the post-season all star games, where he lit up opposing pass defenses with his compact, effortless-looking release and absolute rocket for an arm throwing into the intermediate zone.

"Garoppolo can find receivers and fire the ball on target faster than you can say his name. Lighting release and frozen rope medium distance sideline passes are reminiscent of Dan Marino's lasers. This despite concerns about his size, short arms and small hands." - Frank Cooney, NFLDraftScout.com 

He shot up the big boards and was mentioned in the same breath as other top quarterbacks in the class, and came into the 2014 draft being pegged as the Texans' franchise signal caller with the first pick of the second round.  Unfortunately for them, they passed on him at that point with the feeling that he would make it to the top of the third round, but Belichick pounced on him at the bottom of the second round, and Houston was forced to Plan B, Pitt's Tom Savage.

In retrospect, and even before Garoppolo takes the field on opening night, the move by the Dark Master was as shrewed as any Belichick has made in any draft, as he has either his franchise quarterback of the future under contract, or has a a stock certificate on the most prized commodity in football.

Maybe Belichick saw this coming in regard to the stupid and wrong Deflategate saga, or he really didn't want to have to rely on Ryan Mallet as his backup, or he simply just thought Garoppolo could be the successor to Brady - or maybe even a combination of all of the above - but whatever the motivation, Belichick is now in the same position with Garoppolo as he was with Drew Bledsoe after the 2001 season...

...trading Beldsoe to Buffalo for their 2003 first-round draft pick - and while Garoppolo isn't nearly as polished or experienced as the first overall pick in 1993, there is sure to be a general manager out there who would be willing to part with a second rounder, perhaps even a first rounder - and it wouldn't necessarily be during the next offseason.

Brady is due back from suspension in week 5, barely a month before the NFL trade deadline of November 3rd - a key occurrence as injuries could dictate a market for Garoppolo - or even Brissett - as it would be to the Patriots' advantage to shed a backup to Brady to create a roster spot somewhere else.

Of course, this is speculative.  It could very well be that Belichick carries three quarterbacks as his team is absolutely loaded at just about every level, with no real or perceived needs.  So with speculation being what it is - a guessing game full of hypotheticals and what-ifs - there is little doubt that all three signal callers on the camp roster possess a skill set friendly with the Erhardt-Perkins offense that Belichick prefers...

...but now that teams actually will have to game plan for Garoppolo - which means a concerted focus on taking away what he does best - how would a defense attack him?

As mentioned, Garoppolo's delivery is compact - a three-quarters delivery in which there is little-to-no windup - and when the ball leaves his hand, it comes out at just above his eye-level, and given that Garoppolo stands only 6' 3", the smart money is on teams understanding the Patriots' passing lanes and maintaining gap integrity.

It's not a sexy game plan and it lends itself  to giving a little too much respect to a guy who has thrown less than three dozen passes in his career, but to blitz him is to bring his mobility into play and it also leaves one of his monstrous tight ends in single coverage up the seam - and to take him too lightly and play shell coverage, he has the ability to pick the secondary apart with quick hitters.

The math of all of this is that teams will have to play Garoppolo straight-up, and afford him a level of respect unheard of for a third-year clipboard holder - partially because of the freakish nightmare of pass catchers that he will have to throw to, but also because his technique in progression is so sound that he wastes very little motion, and the ball comes out hot with just the snap of his wrist.

"From his pocket mobility to his accuracy to his mental makeup, he has a lot of qualities you look for as someone you can develop at the next level. A lot of young quarterbacks leave their feet behind when they check to their next progression. But not Garoppolo. By keeping his feet tied to his eyes, he's always in position, ready to pull the trigger." - ESPN analyst Todd McShay

What McShay means by keeping is feet tied to his eyes is that Garoppolo's feet move in unison with his line of sight, and the way he holds the ball high on his pads, he's cocked and ready to fire at all times.

Where this is particularly effective is on the quick-rhythm routes conceptually designed to target both the Patriots' lightning-quick garden gnome receivers in the underneath zones and their aforementioned monstrous tight ends in the intermediate zone and deep up the seam - and even more so when Garoppolo is improvising outside the pocket...


As the audio mentions, Garoppolo's accuracy is pretty amazing, his footwork is extraordinary and he has a thick lower half that aids him in escaping the clutches of ill-intended defensive linemen and which also contributes to his accuracy - and all of this is on full display at about the fifty second mark of this video.

The laser that he throws for a touchdown after escaping the clutches of the Saints' pass rush should serve as a warning to defensive coordinators to preach pocket containment and gap integrity, because that ball got to wide receiver Chris Harper in a hurry, Garoppolo using his forward momentum and natural wrist-snap to put the ball right where it needed to be, right when it need to be there.

All of this being said, one would think that this could turn into another Bledsoe-Brady circumstance if Garoppolo lights the league on fire through four games, but all one has to do is to fast forward the video to the end sequence, a flat-footed overthrow that resulted in a long interception to understand that there will be no quarterback controversy...

...as Brady is a far more accomplished passer and is the greatest to ever play this game.

No, there are only two conclusions that will come out of Garoppolo's four-game audition - to be retained as the future of the franchise or be dealt to the highest bidder, and if Jimmy Clipboard ascends and plays light's out, then it will Belichick's task to determine which option is best for the team - both long term and short.