Showing posts with label Miami Dolphins. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Miami Dolphins. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 12, 2017

Game Plan, Play Calling come Into Question Following Patriots' Ugly Loss To Dolphins

As the saying goes, one bad apple doesn't spoil the whole bunch, but if one were to pluck the New England Patriots' Monday night bad apple from their season's tree, they would have immediately tossed it into the slop bucket.

No need to slice it open, because this one was marred with bruises and pock-marked with ugly worm holes.
Brady throwing gingerly off his back foot

For sure, the Patriots' 27-20 loss to the Miami Dolphins before a stunned National Television audience was enough to cause the team's many detractors to sing with glee their song of the Patriots' demise - but just like in the bad apple analogy, one bad game doesn't spoil their whole season.

It was ugly, make no mistake about that, and Patriots' fans everywhere are either desperately searching for reasons or excuses why their offense managed just 248 yards of total offense, or simply channeling their inner-Bill Belichick and muttering "We're on to Pittsburgh" - while Dolphins' fans are beating their chests and running amok in a frenzy, bellowing at the top of their lungs and spitting beer on tourists.

Because at 6-7, this game is probably going to be the highlight of their season - the Dolphins' Super Bowl, you might say - and anytime you can beat the defending champs so thoroughly and dominate them in every facet of the game, no one is going to blame you for whooping it up afterwards.

But while the Dolphins and their fans will have to settle for the elation of beating New England to keep their slim playoff hopes alive, the Patriots have much loftier thoughts, such as their upcoming heavyweight matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers this Sunday which suddenly presents ominous consequences for them should they fall in the Steel City.

It was roundly expected that New England and Pittsburgh would meet at Heinz Field with identical 11-2 records in what was being billed as a winner-take-all fight for the top seed in the American Football Conference playoffs - but instead the Patriots limp into the contest at 10-3, and even though a win over the Steelers would again cause a tie atop the conference and a significant tie-breaker for New England, there is suddenly another team to be concerned about.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have suddenly emerged as a legitimate threat to break into the top two teams in the AFC with a record of 9-4 and a much easier schedule than either the Patriots or Steelers.

A loss by either team would put the Jags squarely in contention for one of the top two seeds, along with the resultant first round playoff bye and homefield advantage in the divisional round and perhaps beyond. A Patriots' loss to Pittsburgh and a Jacksonville win over Houston would give the Jaguars possession of the second seed in the conference, based on a better conference record (9-2 vs 7-3)...

...while a loss by the Steelers would put the Jaguars right on their doorstep with an identical conference record, but with Pittsburgh holding a razor-thin edge in the strength of victory tie-breaker, but with a proverbial cupcake schedule (at Houston, vs. Cleveland).

So, any way you slice it, the Patriots loss at Miami was rotten to the core and could have a tremendous impact on their season yield, particularly if quarterback Tom Brady's putrid performance was based more on health than on missing his main target in the passing game in tight end Rob Gronkowski.

Granted, without having to account for Gronkowski, the Dolphins' defenders were able to concentrate on manning-up against Brady's slim receiver depth chart and were able to take wide outs Brandin Cooks and Chris Hogan completely out of the game on precision coverages by Xavien Howard and Bobby McCain, who both had capable safety help over the top since neither had to worry about Gronkowski...

...while linebackers Kiko Alonzo and Alterraun Verner focused on limiting the Patriots' fine stable of running backs - the result of which was an abysmal 24 of 43 performance by the obviously laterally-limited Brady for just 233 yards and two interceptions - both by Howard covering Cooks - and just one score, a three-yard out-flat to running back James White.

Obviously, those numbers are season-lows from Brady, but what really hurt the offensive effort was the lack of a ground game, as offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels called just ten running plays all game, resulting in only 25 yards, both season-lows.

Defensively, the Patriots struggled against the Dolphins' game plan, which was as vanilla and mundane as one could expect - yet given the losses to injury coupled with sheer exhaustion due to New England's offense's inability to sustain drives to give the defense their proper rest, it was as effective as anyone's.

Miami's full complement of speedy wide receivers and tight end Julius Thomas kept New England's secondary on their toes all night, leaving the decimated linebacking corps to deal with running back Kenyan Drake - who ran around the Patriots' defensive front and made the likes of interior run-stuffers Elandon Roberts and Jonathan Freeney have to chase Drake sideline to sideline...

...and in the passing game splitting Drake out wide and isolated on Roberts, who was like a stick in the mud against the speed of the the second year breakout candidate - and the results were predictable.

Touching the ball 30 times, Drake ran for 114 yards on 25 carries, but did most of his damage in the passing game, picking up 79 yards in just five receptions. Key weapon Jarvis Landry came in second to Drake totaling just 46 yards, but scoring two of Miami's three touchdowns.

In contrast, no Patriots' pass catcher topped 50 yards with the exception of Danny Amendola, who along with Cooks, padded his stats against Miami's two-deep zone once the Dolphins figured they had the game in hand.

But perhaps the worst slice of apple to come out of this debacle was the health status of Brady, who was beaten like he stole something - which wasn't entirely the fault of the offensive line, but more a combination of excellent coverage down the field by the Dolphins and Brady's gimpiness in the pocket, not sliding around and buying time like he normally does...

...and when he did release a ball, doing so almost chopping down on his front foot instead of stepping into his throws, causing many balls to drop sharply towards the turf and landing at the feet of his receivers. This was perhaps a combination of many factors, perhaps including a sore right Achilles tendon, which seemed to affect his ability to plant and step up, the physics of which suggest he would drive the ball into the turf short of his target.

If that is the case, then that could be what was responsible for both of his interceptions by Howard - not to mention that Howard was all over Cooks in a fantastic display of coverage skill - but it would also explain how even his trademark accuracy on intermediate an long throws  was replaced by short ducks that left his receivers with no chance.

But what hurt the Patriots the most was the fact that McDaniels abandoned the option of running the ball for the most part, and completely ignored it in the second half, even in situations where running the ball made the most sense - case in point being on a first-and-goal at the Miami one-yard line with a minute and a half remaining in a 10-point game, throwing three straight times and suffering two penalties which not only burned time off the clock, but forced them to settle for a field goal.

Not to mention that once the Patriots got some offensive momentum early in the fourth quarter and a comeback appeared to be tangible, Brady dropped back to throw on 21 consecutive plays over five fourth quarter possessions, when his exhausted defense dug deep and gave the ball back to the offense time and again.

All said and done, this loss lies on the coaching staff, who appeared to come into the game with a game plan custom-suited to play right into the strength of the Dolphins, then topped it off with questionable decisions in the play-calling area - particularly on offense.

Belichick has long said that players win games but coaches lose them - and on this particular night, his game plan had most everything to do with losing the game.

And now that his team has been backed into a corner and must have a win against Pittsburgh on Sunday, we will get to see if Monday night was just a fluke and an error in judgment, or if the Patriots lack the intestinal fortitude to go into a hostile environment and take what they want.

If they don't, they may find themselves on the outside looking in at Pittsburgh and Jacksonville, and hosting a wildcard game instead of getting that all-important late-season rest on a bye week.

Sunday, August 6, 2017

Cutler A Dolphin: Impact On New England Is Negligible

Ian Rappaport is reporting that the Miami Dolphins have reached a contract agreement with retired NFL quarterback Jay Cutler, a move that impacts the New England Patriots in a couple of different ways.

First, it means that Miami's regular starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill is done for the season, but the Dolphins organization is in full panic mode, thinking they are just going to waste all of the talent that they've acquired over the past couple of years by going into battle with Tannehill's long-time backup Matt Moore.

Moore is a capable backup, and could very well have led Miami to a playoff berth as he did down the stretch in 2016 before taking a savage beating in their wildcard game loss to Pittsburgh - but even in that game he was having his way with the Steeler's secondary before linebacker Bud Dupree likely concussed him with a helmet-to-helmet hit just before halftime.

Moore apparently passed the Dolphins' concussion protocol but wasn't the same after the hit, throwing a pick and losing two fumbles that doomed Miami's chances, a performance that prompted the league to issue a warning to the franchise that they need to get onboard with the protocol.

But despite the performance in the last four regular season games and the first half against Pittsburgh in the playoffs, the Dolphins opted to bring in Cutler, reasoning that he knows head coach Adam Gase's offense, an offense that plays to the strength of his skill set, that being boundary throws to taller receivers - of which Miami has several - seam throws to tight ends and dump-offs to backs in the flat.

It's a run-and-screen form of the Erhardt-Perkins offense that Gase encountered as a wide receiver's coach under Josh McDaniels in Denver and which he brought to Chicago as their offensive coordinator and now to Miami as their head coach, the advantage of which is to draw the safeties closer to the line of scrimmage to open up the mid-range options in a ball-control scheme that concentrates on moving the chains.

Under Gase as the Bears' offensive coordinator, Cutler enjoyed perhaps his finest statistical season as a professional quarterback, setting career highs for efficiency (completing 65% of his throws), and for quarterback rating (92.3), and cut his interceptions to a career-low average per pass attempt - but what matters for the Dolphins, as well as teams defending against them, is that Cutler is tailor made for the run-and-screen offense while Tannehill struggles in it.

In Cutler, Gase gets a guy that excels in the short-passing, ball-control offense and can make all of the throws required of an NFL quarterback and is deadly accurate on the short-to-intermediate throws, while Tannehill was often indecisive when going over the middle and frequently made off-target throws that put his receivers in harms way, not to mention that Tannehill was quick to pull the ball down and scramble instead of going through his progressions.

The second impact comes in the aforementioned Josh McDaniels factor, which provides Cutler with additional motivation to perform well against the Patriots.

When McDaniels was hired by the Broncos as their head coach in 2008, the first thing he did was to alienate Cutler by engaging in talks with Tampa Bay involving a three-team trade that also involved New England which, had it gone through, would have sent Cutler to the Buccaneers, Patriots' quarterback Matt Cassell to Denver and to the Patriots, a first round draft pick.

Meanwhile, the Detroit Lions had entered the fray and made an offer to the Broncos for Cutler and a similar offer the New England for Cassell - all deals fell off the table when Belichick traded Cassell to the Kansas City Chiefs, but while it was widely reported that the Bucs and Lions approached the Broncos and not the other way around, Cutler became incensed that McDaniels would even entertain the notion of a trade.

In a classic case of over-reaction, Cutler put his Denver home on the market and immediately requested a trade, saying that the relationship between he and the head coach was irreconcilable. Broncos' management accommodated Cutler's request and traded him to Chicago, the Bears giving Denver quarterback Kyle Orton and a couple of first-round draft picks.

The story on McDaniels became rather sordid after that contentious start, and he lasted only a year and a half in Denver.  Suffice to say that his feud with Cutler started the McDaniels tenure in Denver in the wrong way, and it spiraled into the toilet from there with claims of immaturity following scraps with his own players and those from other teams...

...while that same label followed the equally enigmatic Cutler, whose entitled behavior wore on his Bears' teammates to the point that when John Fox took over the team as the head coach in 2015, he struggled with a decision of whether to keep Cutler around, and caused former-Patriots' tight end Martellus Bennett to question Cutler's leadership skills.

So after a 2016 season in which Cutler played in just five games due to injury and indifference on the part of the Bears' coaching staff, he was released by Chicago, signing on with FOXSports as a color commentator, but has now put that career on hold to become Miami's starting quarterback.

But the true impact on New England is that the defense is built to take away the boundaries and force everything inside, so in theory the Dolphins should be easier to defend against as Cutler is more of a pocket passer compared to Tannehill, who pressured the Patriots' front seven with his scrambling ability and caused them to shadow him with a weakside linebacker or a strong safety...

...but with Cutler under center, the defense can concentrate on taking away the middle of the field and force him to the boundaries - and from what we know about him, Cutler will start trusting his arm strength more than the technique he developed on underneath routes, making a feast for New England's excellent secondary to pick off passes.

In short, it's hardly ever a positive thing for a team to lose their starting quarterback, but if Miami is getting the good Cutler who reads his progressions and takes care of the football, they can make the playoffs - but if they get the "entitled" Cutler, their season is finished.

That said, they could have gotten the same out of Matt Moore.

Friday, April 21, 2017

Analysis: Patriots' Schedule A Matter Of Perspective


It's good to be the king...

The National Football League released the 2017 schedule on Thursday evening, and while the fans of the New England Patriots have known for weeks who their opponents were going to be, the schedule revealed the details - and the schedule makers couldn't have been any kinder to the defending champions.

But many are viewing the Patriots' overall schedule with gritted teeth - and that because of playing five of eight after the bye on the road, including three in a row in early December and two in a row in altitude in November - and those games will be challenging for sure, but things do tend to balance out.

How? Well first of all, the two games in altitude come at a fortuitous time, coming off of the midseason bye.

After playing two consecutive home games to close out the first half of the season, the Patriots take their bye in week 9, the effective two week break giving them many options to prepare for games at Denver and at Mexico City to play the Raiders - perhaps taking off for Denver on Tuesday or Wednesday to acclimate to the thinner air in the Rockies...

...then after playing the Broncos on that Sunday night, they will have the option to either stay in Denver or head straight for Mexico City, depending on the availability of venues in which to prepare for the Raiders.

After that two week stretch, the Patriots return home for the Dolphins, the go for three straight at Buffalo, Miami and Pittsburgh - but then end the regular season with two straight at home against the Bills and Jets.

According to my math, those circumstances neutralize both the disadvantage of playing two straight games in high altitude by giving the Patriots two weeks to prepare, physiologically, for the thin air of Denver and Mexico City, gives them two of their three game roadie against divisional opponents, then see them closing with two straight at home against divisional opponents.

The latter means that if the Patriots take care of their business down thew stretch and secure a first round bye after playing the Steelers in Pittsburgh on December 17th, they may not have to leave Foxborough for the following seven weeks until having to travel to Minneapolis to participate in Super Bowl LII.

So stress out all you want about the schedule, but the glass-half-full perspective shows that there is nothing goofy about the schedule-making - no conspiracies, no hanky-panky.  And the fact that they play five prime time contests and also play in two late-afternoon games scheduled for National Broadcasts means that Patriots' fans around the globe will be sure to catch nearly half of their schedule by doing nothing more than picking up their remote and clicking a couple of buttons.

Thursday, September 7 (8:30pm)
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

Raising the banner is always a special occasion, but the Patriots need to figure out where to put the sucker, as they have run out of room adjacent to the scoreboard.  But, alas, they will figure it out - and also get the opportunity to face a dangerous Chiefs' squad that won the tough AFC West last season before being scalped by the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Divisional round of the playoffs.

On the surface, the Chiefs did very little to improve upon last season, re-signing a couple of core players and signing TE Gavin Escobar while giving the ax to RB Jamal Charles - so don't look for them to improve much over their 20th ranked offense and 24th ranked defense.

Sunday, September 17 (1:00pm)
New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints
The Superdome, New Orleans. Louisiana

An early test for the Patriots' defense, as the Saints finished first in total offense in 2016 - but lost a playmaker when they traded WR Brandin Cooks to New England.  The Saints still have Drew Brees chucking the ball about and they signed former Panther Ted Ginn to try and replace Cooks' speed on the outside.

They still sport a terrible defense (27th overall, 31st in scoring defense), so the first round pick they got from New England in the Cooks trade will probably go toward shoring up their secondary, which ranked dead last in the NFL.

Sunday, September 24 (1:00pm)
Houston Texans at New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

The Texans have a great defense - tops in the NFL last season - and they have plenty of receiving weapons on offense, but no one to get the ball to them.  Unless Houston takes a quarterback in the draft, it will be third-year man Tom Savage pulling the trigger in the passing game.  Savage will have a top ten running game to keep the heat down to a minimum, but that might not be enough for them to repeat as the "Default" champions of a horrible AFC South...but then again, the division is so bad, it just might.

Sunday, October 1 (1:00pm)
Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

The Super Bowl that should have been in 2015, but the Panthers were a just a shadow of themselves in 2016 - but a play here or a play there and a little luck, and it would have been them winning the NFC South instead of the Atlanta Falcons.

The Panthers lost seven games by less than three points, and still finished with six wins.  Fighting through injuries, they were able to hold things together, and now they have almost all of their weapons returning healthy.  Don't let the Panthers' record fool you, they were nowhere near as bad as their record indicated.

Thursday, October 5 (8:25pm)
New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida

Scary team on the rise.  The Bucs tripped over themselves coming out of the gate in 2016, losing five of their first eight, four of those losses dropping close decisions to eventual playoff teams, then went 6-2 down the stretch to make a valiant run at the post-season, but coming up just short, beating the likes of Kansas City, Seattle and Atlanta in the process.

Sunday, October 15 (1:00pm)
New England Patriots at New York Jets
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey

Sunday, December 31 (1:00pm)
New York Jets at New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

The Jets come into this season is full rebuilding mode, and with a coach who is squarely on the hot seat.  A team with nothing to lose - especially a hated division rival - is a very dangerous team.  Unfortunately for the Jets, they come into the season without a quarterback of any note, offensive and defensive lines in disarray and zero weapons.  Tough go for the Jets.

Sunday, October 22 (8:30pm)
Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

How motivated are the Falcons going to be to cone into Foxborough and give the Patriots a taste of the whip?  This game is the crown jewel of the NFL's first half and a chance for the Falcons to gain some measure of respect after having their hearts ripped out of their chests in the Super Bowl.

Problem is, Atlanta will be fielding a team that is essentially the same as it was in February, a team that gave New England all they could handle and then some, but eventually wore down and blew a 25 point lead.  We all know the story, now the Falcons want some payback.

Sunday, October 29 (1:00pm)
Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

The second of tow consecutive home games to finish up the first half of the season heading into their bye, the Patriots should have a decided advantage over the helter-skelter Chargers - but this team should not be taken lightly.

Playing in the toughest division in all of football, the Chargers went 1-5 in the division, but taking the Chiefs into overtime and playing the Raiders tough before dropping heartbreakers, and splitting their series with the Denver Broncos - in between beating good teams from Atlanta, Tennessee and Houston.  The Chargers have inherent talent, but not the the intestinal fortitude to finish off an opponent.  We'll see if that improves with a new coaching staff.

Sunday, November 12 (8:30pm)
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado

The Broncos may all well be the Patriots' division rivals, having played each other at least once a year since the 2011 season, New England going 6-3 against the Broncos in nine tries in that time span - with two of their losses coming in conference championship games played at Denver.

So no one has to remind Patriots' fans of the consequence of playing the Broncos.  They have a great defense and plenty of weapons on offense, but their quarterback situation took a step back last season after they let Brock Osweiller leave in free agency, as he had already proven that his skill set was a good match for what Denver liked to do with the football.  But altitude aside, the Broncos are always a tough matchup.

Sunday, November 19 (4:25pm)
New England Patriots vs. Oakland Raiders
Azteca Stadium, Mexico City, Mexico

Denver may be known as the Mile High City, but Mexico City has them beat by a full third of a mile. Playing the Broncos in Denver the previous week will act as an impromptu hyperbaric chamber for the Patriots, allowing them to acclimate to being a mile above sea level in advance of traveling to Mexico City, which one can reasonably expect to happen immediately after their Sunday night gig in Denver.

The Raiders are as high-powered on offense as any team the Patriots will play all season, though their defense leaves them scratching and clawing to score enough points to win.  The Raiders bitch-kitty is their run defense, and the Patriots have four excellent running backs to rotate in and out to keep their running game fresh...

Sunday, November 26 (1:00pm)
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

Monday, December 11 (8:30pm)
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida

The Dolphins are always a tough draw, and the fact that they play each other twice in a span of three weeks doesn't make that any easier for either team.  Miami may have made the playoffs last year, but did so ranked in the bottom third of the NFL on both sides of the ball.  The difference between the Dolphins and most other teams on the Patriots' schedule, however, is that they have the stones to finish tight games.

Many will remember their comeback and near upset of New England in Foxborough early last season when the Dolphins scored 21 unanswered points to close within a touchdown of the Patriots, and were threatening to tie the game up with seconds to play until safety Duron Harmon picked off quarterback Ryan Tannehill in the end zone to salvage the win.

One can expect the same effort from Miami this time around as well, as the current staff seems to have the team headed in the right direction.

Sunday, December 3 (1:00pm)
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Ralph Wilson Stadium, Orchard Park, New York

Sunday, December 24 (1:00pm)
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

This is another instance when the Patriots have to play a division rival twice in a short period of time.  The first was when the Patriots and Dolphins combined to make a Buffalo sandwich in between their contests, and now the Patriots have to play the Bills twice in four weeks, with the Dolphins and Steelers on the docket in between.

The Bills have plenty of talent on offense and play an explosive brand of football, though most of the explosion comes from their dynamic running game, but in contrast, the Bills defense can't stop the opposition's running game to save their lives.  Their saving grace had been their secondary, that is until New England lured cornerback Stephon Gilmore away.

With all of the speed Buffalo has in their receiving corps, they just don't make enough plays in the passing game to keep opposing defenses honest, averaging a mere 190 passing yards per game in 2016.  But a new regime is taking over in Buffalo and, of course, when it comes to playing the champs, every team has a little more motivation.


Sunday, January 1, 2017

Patriots Stomp Dolphins; Secure Top Seed, Homefield Advantage

The Miami Dolphins did what they always do.

Against the New England Patriots on Sunday afternoon, the Dolphins got off to a slow start, but somehow managed to stick around and cut a three score deficit down to one early in the third quarter and had the Patriots in a third and long at their own 23 yard line, and the Miami fans in the stadium could feel the momentum shifting towards their Dolphins.

Then the Patriots did what they always do.

Julian Edelman caught a quick out from quarterback Tom Brady just across his own 30 yard line, made a quick move to the inside, eluding a weak attempt at an ankle tackle from Bacarri Rambo and split a pair of defenders who apparently thought Rambo would bring Edelman down - one of whom absorbed a savage hit from New England Patriots receiver Michael Floyd...

...a blindside job that liquefied Lippett's extremities and opened up the rest of the field for Edelman's 77 yard touchdown catch and run - Edelman saw the hit coming and even felt compelled to shift into an extra gear that he wasn't sure he had, because there wasn't much separation between him and Lippett, and Edelman didn't want any part of what was about to happen behind him.

Floyd had been working downfield, and when he saw Edelman split the defenders he took the angle toward midfield, where he collided with Lippett and left him prone and drooling on the Dolphins logo while the Patriots celebrated in the end zone.

Just like that, the score was 27-14, then 35-14 moments later as the Patriots' offense converted a seventy yard fumble return by linebacker Shea McClellin into a short LeGarrette Blount touchdown rumble, and the Patriots were headed back to Foxborough with the number one seed in the upcoming AFC playoffs, and fourteen days to prepare for their first opponent.

Floyd's posterization of Lippett was only the final act of his coming out party with the Patriots, as earlier in the game he had several key blocks in the running game, then executed a textbook in-cut to score his first touchdown for his new team, catching the ball just inside the Dolphins' ten yard line, cutting into a gaggle of defenders massed at the five, then fought his way to the end zone in an impressive display of strength.

The game was an encapsulation of how the season has gone for both teams.  For Miami, they always seemed to dig a big hole for themselves, but were able to hang around and crawl out of those holes ten times coming into Sunday's tilt with the Patriots, who always seemed to get out to fast early leads, sleepwalk into the room at halftime and stumble back out, then recover in time to score a decisive blow.

The pudding of proof  for the Dolphins lies in the fact that they have played so many one score games this season - ten of their sixteen, to be exact - that they could just as easily have been playing for a division title as playing out their string, with the latter being the more believable of the two. Four of Miami's six losses have been by more than two touchdowns, while only two of their wins have been of the same margin.

New England, on the other hand, had only four games decided by two scores or less, and were 3-1 in those games, their average margin of victory a robust 12 points despite scoring at a clip of 27.5 points per game - their lowest average points per game since the 2009 squad went for 26.5 - the 35 points scored against the Dolphins on Sunday representing their second highest point total of the season.

How they ended up winning fourteen games isn't exactly a secret, however, as the two main factors being their incredible balance in their offensive attack, and the resiliency of their defense - and both were on full display at Hard Rock Stadium.

New England opened the game with two consecutive touchdown drives, leaning heavily on the running game in each. Six of New England's 13 play calls on the first drive were handoffs to either Blount or Dion Lewis - ending in a Martellus Bennett backline score - and three of the five plays run in the second drive went to Blount exclusively, culminating in Floyd's power play - the combined 59 yards on the ground representing nearly half of the Patriots' rushing yards for the game.

In fact, the Patriots had 94 rushing yards in a first half that they dominated, and only 26 in a second half in which is was more about the defense coming up large, despite once again giving up huge chunks of yardage, only to stiffen when it mattered most.

The New England defense forced five punts on ten Miami possessions and caused two turnovers, the second of which sealed the game for the Patriots.

Following the Edelman touchdown, the teams traded punts on four consecutive series before the Dolphins got something proper started to begin the fourth quarter, driving to the New England nine yard line and threatening to shave their deficit down to a single score again - but on second and goal, safety Devin McCourty punched the ball away from Miami passing back Damien Williams...

...linebacker Shea McClellin scooping up the loose ball in the left flat and rumbling down the left sideline to set up New England's final score.

The fourteen points surrendered by the Patriots' defense lowered their league-leading points per game average to 15.6, assuring them that they will finish the season as the top scoring defense in the NFL - and they did it the way they've done it all season, shutting down the Dolphins' powerful rushing game and limiting big plays in the passing game - in essence forcing Miami to dink and dunk their way down the field, chewing clock the entire time.

Miami tried to counter the Patriots' game plan by going up-tempo, and it worked as they scored both of their touchdowns in the hurry up offense, but New England adjusted by going full shift-change in the waning moments to rotate in fresh personnel.

Now the Patriots wait, rest, heal and sharpen their technique and focus - watching to see who will be coming to Foxborough to challenge them in the Divisional round of the playoffs, with the lowest surviving seed between Houston, Oakland and Miami the candidates...

Wednesday, December 28, 2016

Patriots' Defense Elite; History, Philosophies Confirm

Todd Bowles said it wasn't about effort. Brandon Marshall said the loss was embarrassing. Sheldon Richardson said it was about effort and that Marshall should look in the mirror when talking about embarrassing.

Is it any wonder the New England Patriots blew the New York Jets right out of Gillette Stadium on Saturday afternoon?

The in-fighting in the Jets' locker room is nothing new, but a disappointing season in which New York has been a sideshow in the AFC East is a rich environment for discontent and even malcontents, and the Jets are going to have to figure out who is who on their team going forward - but that doesn't have anything to do with the Patriots.
Defensive end Trey Flowers (m) and Chris Long (r) lead a ferocious pass rush

The 41-3 shellacking that New England laid on the Jets in Foxborough is a lesson to all of those who still wonder, after all of these years, what makes the Patriots not just successful, but in the conversation for the Super Bowl every single year. It's not because they have had a franchise quarterback playing in the same system under the same head coach for the past 16 years...

....and it's not because they play in a pitiful division that has offered up only only token participation in the tournament, with the Jets making the post-season six times with 6 different coaches in that same span, next week's foe Miami has been just twice with six different head coaches and division doormat Buffalo hasn't been to the playoffs at all, and have had seven head coaches in Bill Belichick's tenure.

It's because of their unwavering dedication to their philosophies.

Now, this doesn't mean, for instance, that Tom Brady is a system quarterback, it just means that he's a quarterback who has been fortunate enough to work for an organization that values consistency.  It also means that he is the perfect quarterback to deal with Belichick's constant reinventing of his team each week, a process that sees him prepare every single player for one job on any given Sunday.

One job.  Maybe two, but that's it.  Belichick preaches "do your job", and he gives each player one or two specific tasks, and all he wants is for you to do the job you've been assigned and rely on the game plan to glue all of the pieces together. It sounds robotic, and sometimes it is, but you really can't argue with the results.

That's why as a fan, we shouldn't buy into the naysayers who will argue that while the offense has faced some stout defensive units - half of their opponents came into games with Top 10 defenses - the defense hasn't faced top offenses at all in 2016, and that their stats and status are inflated.

But here's the thing and there's no getting around it, they have done the things that they needed to do, and the competition is merely reduced to that week's game plan - and the result of last Saturday afternoon is a direct result of that philosophy.

Of course, you'd have to be crazy on acid to think that the talent level on the other side of the ball doesn't feed into the equation - and it certainly does - but it is also taken into consideration on the game planning level, which every week seeks to neutralize any perceived advantage that the bad guys hold, but for the most part the Patriots follow a defined template that prioritizes threats.

And every single week, the top priority is stopping the opponent's running game.

The 100 yard barrier is the accepted line between success and failure when it comes to stopping the opposition's ground attack, and New England's defense has risen to the occasion nine times in fifteen games this season with five of those instances in the last six games - allowing only the run-heavy Jets to accumulate over a hundred yards...

...simply because the Jets' passing game was pedestrian at best, two quarterbacks combining for a dismal 8 of 24 for 136 yards, three of their two dozen misses finding Patriots' defensive backs instead of New York receivers - lending credence to the notions that as stingy as the New England run defense has been, their pass coverages have been even more miserly.

Mostly due to the Patriots' game plan's second priority, which is to keep the opposing quarterback from stretching the field with long pass plays, happily giving up completions short of the sticks and letting their sure tackling pass defenders make plays to keep the opposing receivers from reaching the marker.

It has been an amazingly effective tactic, especially of late. For the season, the Patriots defense ranks seventh in the league in opposing quarterback rating at a respectable 83.8, but since the bye, that rating has dipped into elite numbers, their 66.8 quarterback rating allowed leading all of football in that time span.

In fact, let's drill down into Belichick's philosophy a little deeper. He has always said that he builds his teams throughout the season to ensure that they are playing their best football after Thanksgiving - and with that holiday being the line in the sand, we can see that the 2016 Patriots have taken Belichick's philosophy to the next level.

In the five contests since Thanksgiving, the Patriots defense is yielding just 62 rushing yards per game, the third best mark in football behind only the Texans and Rams (compared to 89.4 for the season), 216 yards passing (240 ypg for the season), 14 first downs per game, which is tops in the league (18 per game for the season) and have forced 12 turnovers, tops in the NFL for the time frame...

...so it is fair to say that the Patriots are playing at a level that transcends the negative thought processes, and that they will only improve going forward, as they have made themselves the victim of their own attrition, ridding themselves of "freelancing" linebacker Jamie Collins just before Thanksgiving, leaving first year Patriots to soothe the transition.

Thanks to recent pick up Kyle Van Noy, the integration of fellow linebacker Shea McClellin, and the emergence of second-year defensive end Trey Flowers as a pass rushing force, the Patriots' are reaching their sweet spot at just the proper time and are poised to make a run to a fifth trophy, with only three teams standing in their way - those being their two opponents in the AFC playoffs and whomever they meet in the Super Bowl.

In the AFC playoffs - assuming that New England does qualify as the top seed - of the other five teams in the field, those being Oakland, Pittsburgh, Houston, Miami and Kansas City - two will be eliminated by the time New England laces up for the divisional round in mid-January, with a wide open field now that the Raiders have lost their starting quarterback.

Until that point, the Raiders and New England seemed to be on a collision course in the AFC Championship game, the only question whether that game would be played in Oakland or in Foxborough.  But now, with all due respect to the Raiders' organization, the odds of that matchup happening appear bleak - at least in Oakland, anyway - with the Raiders poised to host the winner of a likely Pittsburgh / Miami wild card game...

...while New England hosts the winner of a Houston / Kansas City wild card tilt.  Of course, all of this is speculation until the last whistle of the regular season, but it seems likely that the road to the Super Bowl runs right through Gillette Stadium, where the Patriots have a defense playing at its peak at just the right time.


Dolphins,Patriots Playing For Seeding, Will Not Rest Starters

Where would you rather have to play in the dead of winter in a one-and-done playoff scenario?

Your first choice is in a climate-controlled domed stadium against an opponent with a weaker record and who just barely qualified for the playoffs by winning the worst division in all of football, while your second choice is in an open-air stadium in the northeastern United States where the temperatures are liable to be in the teens with a windchill of negative connotations against a team that also just scraped into the playoffs, but are battle-tested in the tough AFC North.
Martellus Bennett is part of New England's downfield threat

If you are the Miami Dolphins and you have control over a scenario where you could go to Houston to face the offensively-challenged Texans in the Wildcard round of the 2016 NFL Playoffs, you do everything in your power to take that kind of favorable matchup - but if you don't, or can't, make that scenario come true, you will find yourself smack in the middle of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania against a Steelers team that is operating on all thrusters and as dangerous as any team in the tournament.

All the Dolphins have to do on Sunday to win a trip to Houston is to beat the visiting New England Patriots.

The Dolphins need this game if they want the easiest path to the Divisional round and perhaps even to the AFC Championship game - the Patriots just need it, for a plethora of reasons, not the least of which is to secure homefield advantage throughout the playoffs - but there is a far more dark reason.

You see, the Dolphins represent the best on-field challenge for New England, which in turn will keep the team sharp going into their first-round playoff bye without being over-challenging in game-planning and preparation, since they are a well-known commodity in Foxborough.  Miami is relentless and plays with the heart of an underdog, and what they do well is what the other teams in the AFC East do when playing the Patriots: They find a way to hang around and give themselves a shot to win in the fourth quarter.

But unlike the Buffalo Bills, who have no defense, and the New York Jets who have no offense, the Dolphins have just enough of both to make things tough for New England on Sunday.

Much has been made of Miami's "prolific" running attack, led by second-year back Jay Ajayi, but the fact of the matter is that their ground game runs hot and cold.  For all of the coverage Ajayi received for topping 200 yards in consecutive games around midseason, the Dolphins as a team hit triple-digits on the ground only six times, going for two hundred against the Steelers and twice against the Bills...

...but in games against average to good run defenses, they sport an average of just 84 yards per game on the ground, which feeds into what the Patriots defense does best.

The New England run defense is ranked third in the National Football League, which illustrates how the Patriots approach each game - priority one being to stop the opposition's running game, which they have by holding nine of their fifteen foes under the century mark, and five of their last six, a period which has seen the Patriots surrender a league low 72 yards per game.

The New England pass defense gave up a season-high 387 yards to Miami in week two, but in truth 308 of those passing yards came during a furious second half rally which saw the Dolphins recover from a 24-3 halftime deficit, cutting the Patriots' lead to seven and knocking on their doorstep in the final seconds for the tie before centerfielder Duron Harmon ended the threat with a clutch interception at the New England nine yard line.

And therein lies the rub. Miami is not excellent in any unit on offense, but they are relentless with the style of a mean counter-puncher - and they have to be, because their defense, particularly their run defense, is absolutely atrocious, having given up nearly 150 yards per game since their bye.

Good news for a Patriots' team that sports a top-ten running game themselves, that has averaged 117 yards per game since their own bye week - and that phase of the offense is going to be important to the Patriots as they face a Dolphins' pass defense that is vertically challenged. Miami's opponents have demonstrated great balance on offense, and the ability to remain patient, knowing that their running game will set up their intermediate to deep passing game...

...which New England actually has this season. Since the departure of Randy Moss, the Patriots have relied purely on the short "Dink-and-Dunk" passing game, employing garden gnomes as receivers and monoliths as tight ends, and tying the entire thing together with prolific passing backs - but this season, with the addition of former Buffalo Bill Chris Hogan and rookie Malcolm Mitchell, not to mention recent acquisition Michael Floyd, the Patriots have demonstrated a protracted ability to go over the top of defenses.

That makes New England's offense even more dangerous than they have been in previous meeting through the past few seasons with Miami, and affords them excellent balance and depth - which, despite the aforementioned struggles for the Dolphins on defense, will be as important as any other factor for the Patriots' offense, as Miami is tops in the league in their down defense, accomplished simply by bringing heat from their violent pass rush in obvious passing situations.

This game has all the makings of a classic Patriots / Dolphins showdown, but with much more on the line for both teams. Last season, the Patriots sleepwalked through their season finale and lost home field advantage throughout the playoffs because of it - and that in itself should tell you everything you need to know about this game...

...because if the Dolphins played that hard and that mean in a meaningless game for them to end last season, how much more motivated are they going to be when the game means the difference between going to a toasty warm Houston as the fifth-seed or to iced-down Pittsburgh as the sixth-seed, something that a win over New England will provide them.

But the Patriots are not without motivation either, as they well remember what that loss to Miami last season cost them in the playoffs. New England is in a similar boat this time around, in trying to fend off a challenge from the Oakland Raiders for the top seed in the AFC, which a victory over the Dolphins will give them.


Monday, September 19, 2016

Blount, Bennett Carry Patriots To Smashmouth Win Over Dolphins; Garoppolo "Day-To-Day"


It's not often that an injury to your backup quarterback takes all the wind out of a stadium, but when New England Patriots' Jimmy Garoppolo went down in the second quarter of their matchup with the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, you could have heard a pin drop.

Or maybe it was the sound of the Dolphins clawing their way back into a game that seemed completely out of reach before Garoppolo went down, or perhaps the sound of the Patriots' offensive machine gearing down to accommodate rookie signal caller Jacoby Brissett's inexperience, or maybe even the eerie echo of divisional games gone rogue...

...but whatever it was that wafted into Patriots' fans ears on an humid, overcast day at Gillette Stadium, it will prove to be nothing compared to the doom and gloom that will overtake social media and the Boston-area press after a 31-24 Patriots victory over the Dolphins that was much harder than it had to be.

The Dolphins had no answer for Garoppolo, who looked ready to break out in a very proper manner until linebacker Kiki Alonso drove the third year signal caller into the ground, his full 240 pounds compressing Garoppolo's shoulder, causing a sprained AC joint that eliminated the rising star from the game with five minutes to play in the first half.

Initial reports had the Eastern Illinois product suffering from a broken collarbone, which more than likely would have ended his season with regular starter Tom Brady returning from suspension in three weeks, but the final diagnosis turned out to be a strained AC joint in his right (throwing) shoulder, from which an athlete can heal in anywhere from seven to ten days...

...with Patriots' head ball coach Bill Belichick stating that Garoppolo's status is "Day to Day", so best case scenarios have Brissett under center for Thursday night's contest against the Houston Texans,with a decent chance of Garoppolo returning for what should be his final start against the Buffalo Bills ten days later.

The Patriots seemed to teeter on the brink of collapse after the Garoppolo injury, especially on the defensive side of the ball, but on offense, Brissett had two weapons that stepped up and most likely saved the Patriots from blowing a 24 point lead and losing their first game of the season, both of them doing their best work when New England needed them the most.

Running back LeGarrette Blount and Tight end Martellus Bennett came up huge, extending second half drives with clutch performances for the ages - Blount running for 129 yards against a very good Dolphins front seven and Bennett reaching triple digits in yardage for just the third time in his career, and even that almost wasn't enough.

Regardless, football purists among Patriots' nation had to have been thrilled with what turned out to be the very essence of the Erhardt-Perkins concept-based offensive scheme, the mantra of which begs for the offense to "Pass to score, the run to win." - and as it turns out, the Patriots followed the philosophy to the letter.

Before he went down, Garoppolo had three touchdown passes and had led the Patriots out to a quick 24-0 lead, and then Blount ran through and over the Dolphins' defense to kill just enough clock to win the game - in between, the Dolphins' offense provided the rest of the league with a blueprint as to how to attack the Patriots' defense, and only Blount's third quarter touchdown run prevented a complete New England collapse.

The "blueprint", of course, is the tactic of clogging the intermediate and underneath zones with humanity while occasionally targeting deep in an effort to wear down the cornerbacks - something that New England does with their offense as well, and it worked like a charm for the Dolphins, though it took going into the room at halftime and adjusting the schematic a bit...

...an adjustment that saw Miami outscore New England 24-7 over the remainder of the game and, one could reasonably state, could have been more were it not for the heroics of Blount and Bennett on the offensive side of the ball.

Of Blount's 129 yards, 96 of those came in the second half as the Patriots ran the ball with a determination not seen in these parts in a decade or more, and of Bennett's 114 receiving yards, 68 of those came on passes from Brissett, who seemed comfortable with the idea of turning to hand the ball to Blount or finding Bennett's sure hands in the pattern.

It goes without saying that if Brissett is indeed the starting quarterback against Houston on Thursday night, the gameplan should include heavy elements of each factor, possibly even going 22 or even 23 personnel packages built to run the ball and consume the game clock, but Belichick hasn't even ruled out Garoppolo playing against the Texans - and he has a little bit of recent history to draw on.

Last January, Pittsburgh Steelers' quarterback Ben Roethlisberger also sprained the AC joint in his throwing shoulder but, surprisingly, came back to start the next game, the violence filled 18-16 win over Cincinnati in the wild card round of the 2015 playoffs, throwing for nearly 400 yards.

No wonder Belichick is calling Garoppolo's condition Day-to-Day.

"Injuries to the AC joint are so varied" said orthopaedic surgeon Walt Lowe at the time of Roethlisberger's injury, "but there are a lot of things that are safe to make players comfortable and able to compete. I've seen players come back quickly from such injuries"

Lowe went on to list the available treatment options to prepare a quarterback to play with the injury, including steroid injections and platelet-rich-plasma injections.

"If it's just a sprain, it can take several weeks to feel better" Lowe continued, "but in a high-level athlete it's not unheard of to put some medication inside the joint to get someone a little more pain relief to play sooner."

Realistically, getting Brissett ready to take starting snaps on Thursday night seems to be the prudent direction, and if the Patriots achieve the same sort of balance that they have in their first two games of the season - both close wins - it is entirely possible that New England can continue their season opening winning streak.

Saturday, January 2, 2016

The Loyalists - Patriots Need To Concentrate On Fundamentals, Not Trickery

Every week, two of our bloggers pick each others brains like a couple of zombie baboons - today it's Jacob Bertram from Gamegents.com and Michael Hamm from Foxborough Free Press serving up questions for each other in advance of the New England Patriots' Sunday showdown with the Miami Dolphins...

The New England Patriots are in uncharted territory.

Though it's not as if the team hasn't dealt with injuries before, and the number and frequency of players on the shelf is excessive, the Patriots aren't reacting to these injuries as they have in the past.

You see, in past seasons, the Patriots have survived and even thrived just by making sure that they were fundamentally sound with the players that they had left, the coaching staff putting these players in the best possible circumstance to succeed - but it doesn't feel like that this time.
Belichick and McDaniels need to get Brady in better position to succeed

For the past five weeks, we have witnessed a breakdown of fundamentals - and not surprisingly, the Patriots have struggled, going 2-3 in those contests. To their credit, however, they have been in each loss to the very last possession, losing twice in overtime and once after storming back from a 21 point , fourth quarter deficit to within a touchdown, only to fall short when the pass catchers suddenly developed a case of the Wes Welkers...

So it's not as if New England hasn't been competitive, but it does illustrate that with as many injuries as they are working though, there is very little margin for error - and the errors have been plentiful.

For instance, in the aforementioned loss to the Eagles where they nearly overcame a 21-point deficit, Philadelphia scored on a blocked punt, an 83-yard punt return and a 99-yard interception return. In the overtime loss to the Broncos, a muffed punt helped Denver complete a comeback and in the loss to the Jets. a breakdown in fundamental play calling on offense and poor tackling on defense was the bitch kitty.

So it's not just one area or one player or even isolated to just a particular matchup, it's something that has made its way through Gillette Stadium like a virus, and the only cure is to get back to doing the one thing that has sustained the Patriots through harsh times in the past: Reliance on being fundamentally sound.

It has to be better from top to bottom, and that includes the coaching.

I understand that this time of year and with playoff spots wrapped up, the play calling has to be vanilla in nature, but the entire Patriots' Way credo is built on the coaches taking their players' skill set and building a game plan around them - and it doesn't have to be fancy, it doesn't have to be deceptive, it just has to be fundamentally sound.

These are the New England Patriots, and you've heard it said that the only team that can beat them is themselves, and for the past month, that's exactly what they've been doing - or at least making things much harder on themselves than they should be...

This week's questions:

The Dolphins may be the worst run franchise in the National Football League.  Do you see Mike Tannenbaum still being the football czar in Miami next season given how badly he misjudged the market or will he have carte blanche yet again?

Jacob: Mike Tannenbaum and the Dolphins made a lot of risky decisions this past off season, and now they don't seem to be paying off. I however, am a big believer in allowing things to take shape and allowing people to build their program.  I feel nowadays especially, that a lot of time coaches and GMs aren't given the adequate time needed to build a successful program.  Yet when it comes to the Dolphins and Tannenbaum, they have a past of royally screwing things up. This year making a 114 million dollar decision with Ndamukong Suh.

If you allow someone that kind of power over decisions, I feel you have to at least give it a couple years to work out. The contract isn't going anywhere, so the man that wrote it up should stick around to see it through. However, the Dolphins are the Dolphins, and will most likely panic after seeing all that money go to one defensive tackle and seeing their run defense perform poorly. Ole Tannenbaum might be looking for work months after signing away the Dolphins future


With Stephen Jackson seeing his first action as a Patriot last week do you see his amount of carries increasing this week against the Dolphins? Also what would you consider the right amount of carries for Jackson moving forward?

Mike: By default, the Patriots will probably rely on Jackson for 15 touches, which is probably about right on a pre-game basis. But they need to mix it up with him, as he is an excellent pass catcher out of the backfield, which makes him the first true three-down back the Patriots have had in some time, with the exception of the small sample of work we got from Dion lewis.

At 6’ 2” and 240 pounds, Jackson is built like a “Move” tight end, and with sub 4.5 speed he needs to be in the pattern.

You see, last week wasn’t a true representation of what Jackson could be for this team. When he was in the game, the Jets loaded the box, and when he wasn’t, they went nickle. The game plan was that vanilla and predictable – now, they certainly don’t want to open up a package that they could unwrap in the post-season, but this is what Jackson could bring to the field if used properly. At least that way, teams wouldn’t be so apt to load up the box.

Injuries have forced the Patriots to abandon some of their time-honored tenets, adjusting on the fly to keep win some scrappy games – do you feel that when the Patriots take the field against the Dolphins that this trend will continue with vanilla play calling, even though many of the injured core players are ready to take the field?

Jacob: With the announcement that Edelman will miss the last game of the season, and with Vollmer also being out this week, I don't see much changing on the offensive front. I'm sure Josh will dial up similar plays from the past weeks, and hope the defense can pick up enough slack to get us a week 17 win. With it being an important game, I'm sure everybody who is healthy will be active and playing. I'm looking for another big game out of Keyshawn Martin, and for Stephan Jackson to see more playing time as well. Brady said all hands on deck... well at least the ones who can suit up.


In my opinion this week is a must win. Do you see having home field advantage through the playoff a must for the Patriots?

Mike: It is a must win.

I wrote a few days ago that the Patriots, historically, need at least a first round bye to make it to the Super Bowl, and that their odds of doing so increase exponentially with the top seed.

The loss to the Jets was a gut-punch to the organization as they missed a very tangible and very needed chance to wrap up the top seed, which would have given them the opportunity to turn the Dolphins game into nothing more than a live scrimmage for their depth chart and would have given them the chance to get all of their core players healthy and rested – but now they have to play their core players and expose them to injury in order to secure the top seed.

Is it the end of the world if they don’t beat the Dolphins? Of course not, but the odds say this is a must win – and while this is true, they shouldn’t treat it as a playoff game. All the Patriots need to do is to get back to fundamental football and execute as they are capable, and they will be fine.

Even as injured as they are, this is still a team who are their own worst nemesis.

The Jets gouged the Patriots up the middle in the running game last week, as the Patriots were forced into more players in coverage without their two starting safeties, going dime on several occasions. Are the Dolphins capable of forcing the Patriots’ hand again?

Jacob:  Last week the Patriots, for good reason, were concerned with Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. Defending these two guys while missing both of your starting safeties is no easy task. Even though they did an admirable job for the most part, both of these guys still hurt the Pats. In their attempt to cover them, they were left with some holes in the defense. The Jets took advantage of this, gouging the Patriots up the middle on certain plays.

While Jarvis Landry is the real deal, and rookie DeVante Parker is someone I think will eventually be a star in this league, neither of them will merit the attention Marshall and Decker got. Hopefully with some players returning this week, the Patriots will not allow Lamar Miller the kind of room they gave to the Jets backs. With Hightower ruled out already, this task has been made harder immensely.

The Patriots are banged up at WR and the Dolphins are poor as defending the run. Do the Patriots come with a run heavy attack this week or will Brady look to get Julian Edelman warmed up for the playoff run?

Mike: Balance, son. Balance.

Balance is the key to an offense that is as banged up as the Patriots are virtually everywhere.

Previously, you asked about Steven Jackson’s role in the offense going forward, and I eluded to the need for them to be less predictable and using Jackson in the pattern to offset the fact that their passing game isn’t what it used to be with everyone healthy – and the same goes here.

They need to get Edelman into some game action to gain back synergy with the offense, but shouldn’t go full bore with him, if at all. When sticking to fundamentals, the Patriots have plenty enough to win this game but if they try to get cute with the play calling as they have since Danny Amendola came up lame, it could be their downfall.


Cuteness doesn’t win football games. Fundamentals win football games.

To read all about the Patriots from an old-school twist, be sure to follow us on Foxborough Free Press and on twitter at @ffpblogger, and for a fresh, modern view of the team go to Gamegents.com and follow Jacob on twitter as well at @gamegentsdotcom !

Saturday, December 26, 2015

To Rest Or Not To Rest? Patriots Have Decisions To Make in Advance Of Playoffs

To rest or not to rest, that is the question.

Besides armature bloggers plagiarizing the works of famous 17th century poets, there remains a modern day question of whether the talisman of football masterpieces - the great Bill Belichick - has any designs on resting his starters and injured players in the final two weeks of the regular season, having already secured at least the second seed in the American Football Conference.

Of course, having the second seed in the conference assures the Patriots of a first round bye, meaning that they do not participate in the Wild Card round of the playoffs, but will be watching intently as they are guaranteed to host the highest remaining seed surviving the initial knock-out round - a fairly lofty achievement given their injuries this season, but certainly not the pinnacle of conference play...

...that would be securing the top seed, and with it a first round bye, a guaranteed hosting of the lowest remaining seed from Wild Card weekend and homefield advantage in the AFC Championship game, should they prevail in the Divisional round.

Obviously, having the top seed in the conference is important, but it isn't essential for winning out and making it to the Super Bowl, as the following chronology will attest:

2001 - 2nd seed, beat Oakland in Divisional round and Pittsburgh in the AFC Title game, then beat St. Louis in the Super Bowl

2003 - 1st seed, beat Tennessee in Divisional round, beat Indianapolis in AFC Title game, then beat Carolina in the Super Bowl

2004 - 2nd seed, beat Indianapolis in Divisional round, beat Pittsburgh in AFC Title game, then beat Philadelphia in the Super Bowl

2005 - 4th seed, beat Jacksonville in Wild Card round, lost to Denver in Divisional round

2006 - 4th seed, beat NY Jets in Wild Card round, beat San Diego Chargers in Divisional round, lost to Indianapolis in AFC Title game

2007 - 1st seed, beat Jacksonville in Divisional round, beat San Diego in AFC Title game, lost to NY Giants in Super Bowl

2009 - 3rd seed, lost to Baltimore in Wild Card round

2010 - 1st seed, lost to NY Jets in Wild Card round

2011 - 1st seed, beat Denver in Divisional round, beat Baltimore in AFC Title game, lost to NY Giants in Super Bowl

2012 - 2nd seed, beat Houston in Divisional round, lost to Baltimore in AFC Title game

2013 - 2nd seed, beat Indianapolis in divisional round, lost to Denver in AFC Title game

2014 - 1st seed, beat Baltimore in Divisional round, beat Indianapolis in AFC Title Game, beat Seattle in Super Bowl

For those keeping score, as the first seed under Belichick, the Patriots have advanced to the Super Bowl four times and falling short just once, while as the second seed they are 2-2, and any thing lower than that, they are 0-3 - so as far as the difference between gaining the first seed instead of settling for the second seed, there really isn't that much of a difference, historically.

The Patriots need only to win one of their last two games to secure the top seed in the conference, but would also gain as much with one Cincinnati Bengals' loss in their final two games. There is no combination of wins and losses to be had - and it's pretty well cut and dried. New England has road trips to New York to play the Jets on Sunday, then to Miami to take on the Dolphins next Sunday...

...while the Bengals must travel to Denver for a Monday night affair, but then get to return home to host the lowly Baltimore Ravens to finish out their season. With health, the Bengals have enough to win both of their final two games - but their top quarterback, Andy Dalton, is out for the rest of the regular season with a fractured thumb.

Problem is, both teams they are facing have back up quarterbacks playing as well, Brock Osweiler for the Broncos and Matt Schaub for the Ravens. The Broncos have played well defensively but are finding things difficult in the scoring department on offense, while the Ravens are train wreck on both sides of the ball.

So, it is no guarantee that either team will be able to beat the Bengals, even with A.J. McCarron holding down the fort until Dalton returns for the post-season, so it is most prudent for the Patriots to concentrate on their own business and not allow chance to dictate their destiny - that is, if they even care about their seeding at all.

And that's the real question here: the Patriots have suffered through a record-shattering string of games lost to injury this season, at one point depleting the potency of the offense to where their struggles were not enough to overcome poor special teams play, so that we're looking at a team that is currently 12-2 instead of being undefeated...

...a truly remarkable accomplishment considering the aforementioned injury woes, but with a solid defense that has achieved elite status, New England is in position to control their own destiny.

The best scenario for the Patriots would be to beat the Jets on Sunday to clinch the conference's top seed, then piece together a skeleton crew for the game at Miami, which would have no bearing on anything at all. That would essentially give Belichick's charges a full three weeks to lick their wounds and to fuel up the juggernaut for a Super Bowl run to defend their title.

On the flip-side, however, is the scenario in which the Patriots just go ahead and minimize the snap counts of the starters against the Jets and letting their fortunes rest on back ups, then wait and see what happens between the Bengals and Broncos on Monday night before deciding how to proceed against the Dolphins next Sunday - as it may turn out that resting starters against the Jets could give the Patriots' injured nearly a full calendar month to regain health, should Denver prevail over Cincinnati.

That is, of course, if Belichick even cares about securing the top seed in the conference - because right now his team is sitting pretty with the second seed, while everyone else is scrambling to either improve their seeding, or to even make the playoffs at all - and one of those teams, the Broncos, could actually miss the playoffs if they lose one more game.

So with so much riding on Monday night's game against the Bengals for the Broncos, perhaps it is in Belichick's best interest to take a wait-and-see approach to the top seed, then plan for Miami accordingly.

Tuesday, September 9, 2014

Patriots abandon the run, and all hope as well, in loss to Dolphins

"In life, as in a football game, the principle to follow is: Hit the line hard; don't foul and don't shirk, but hit the line hard!" - Theodore Roosevelt in The American Boy (1900)

Running the ball and stopping the run - there are no greater fundamental values in the world of football on any level, and the New England Patriots gave a textbook example of what happens when a team fails to do either on Sunday in Miami.
Abandoning the run made Brady a sitting duck in the pocket

Social media is ablaze with with hateful diatribe aimed at head coach Bill Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels not only for their seeming ignorance of the values, but also of their personnel moves prior to their team's unfortunate performance in the season opener - and in reality, the both should shoulder much of the blame.

And while neither of them were out on the field airmailing footballs, missing blocks, committing egregious penalties or allowing Miami running back Knowshon Moreno to bounce off of them as if they were so many pinball bumpers, their play calling on offense was just as much to blame for the shoddy execution, because they didn't put their players in position to be successful.

There is a direct correlation between running the football effectively and the success of the offense.  When a team commits to running the football - regardless of the level of success - it impacts the success of the play action, slows the pass rush, if only for a split-second, and forces the defense to become dedicated to a more standard formation...

...while if you don't commit to the run, it makes the play action ineffective because it allows the pass rush to pin their ears back and come after your quarterback - and there's not a signal caller on the earth that can say that the pocket collapsing on him doesn't affect his release.

Of course, there is a huge difference between not being able to run the ball effectively and simply not running the ball, and the Patriots were guilty of the latter on Sunday afternoon.

New England running backs combined for 89 yards on 20 carries, for four yards per touch - and the math suggests that the run was working well enough to balance out the attack, far batter than the average gain per pass play, which was an absolutely abysmal 3.8 yards, and the fact that Tom Brady dropped back to pass a whopping 60 times means that the pass to run ratio was an astounding 75% to 25%.

That isn't good enough, and the final score is indicative of that.

How badly does this lack of a ground game affect the team as a whole?  Consider that in seven second-half drives, the Patriots called exactly five running plays and gained 36 yards - or they would have, had Rob Gronkowski not been nailed for holding on Stevan Ridley's impressive 20 yard stretch run down the Patriots' sideline - but even still, the four rushing attempts that counted, the net gain was for four yards per attempt.

Conversely, the Dolphins game plan seemed to be to stick with the run regardless of the level of success, and it worked like the proverbial charm.

In the first half while the Patriots were busy racking up 20 points and the defense was holding Miami to just ten, both teams ran the ball 15 times, with the Patriots actually outgaining the Dolphins by a total of 73 to 59.  In the second half, the Dolphins continued to hammer the ball at New England's increasingly weary front seven, and shoved the ball right down their collective throat to the tune of 5.7 yards per carry...

...while McDaniels seemed to want to take his 10 point halftime lead and put the Dolphins away quickly as he could and turned exclusively to the passing game - the result being a pedestrian 55 total second half yards, 37 of which came in the Patriots final drive with the game out of reach.

It was as ugly as football gets, regardless of the level.  The Dolphins pinned their ears back and abused the Patriots offensive line and started getting to Brady midway through the third quarter, displaying a level of domination that forced New England into three separate three-and-outs, two four-play drives that ended with strip sacks on Brady, and a five-play drive that stalled due to the Gronkowski holding penalty.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins ran a total of 45 plays to the Patriots' 22 when the game was still in doubt, the incompetence of the New England game plan and execution causing a time of possession disparity of the same two-to-one ratio, wearing out the New England run defense to the point where Moreno and Lamar Miller were breaking off seven and eight yards runs with regularity.

It doesn't take a genius to figure out why the Patriots lost to the Dolphins last Sunday - Miami stayed with their game plan and scored 23 unanswered points in the second half against an exhausted New England defense who received no favors from McDaniels' offense.

In the end, people can bitch and moan about the offensive line, Brady overthrowing everything and the defense not being able to stop the running game, but while those are valid complaints, it all comes back to McDaniels going for the throat and trying to put the Dolphins away when he had the halftime lead by throwing down the field, when he should have stuck to what was working for him in the first half...

...and that was hitting the hole hard and often - at least more often than four times.

Sunday, September 7, 2014

Sloppy Patriots punked by Moreno, Dolphins defense 33-20

Knowshon Moreno and the Dolphins' offensive line had their way with New England's defenders

The New England Patriots were certain that their run defense would be better this season than last.

After all, they were close to the bottom of the league in yards per carry and total yardage surrendered in 2013, so it wasn't going to be difficult to show improvement - unfortunately, they just picked up right where they left off.

Knowshon Moreno rushed for 134 yards on just 24 carries to lead a Miami rushing attack that averaged a hefty 5.5 yards per carry and quarterback Ryan Tannehill hooked up on scoring strikes to Mike Wallace and Lamar Miller as the Dolphins scored 23 unanswered points to erase a 10 point halftime deficit, hammering the flat Patriots 33-20 at SunLife Stadium in Miami on Sunday afternoon.

The Patriots' offense could not take advantage of a Miami defense that was missing all three of their starting linebackers throughout most of the game, as head coach Joe Philbin countered his losses on the second level by sending his reserve linebackers on stunts to overwhelm the Patriots' offensive line and open up lanes for his manic pass rushing defensive linemen...
A frustrated Brady could do nothing in the second half

...sacking New England quarterback Tom Brady four times and pummeling him mercilessly from the edges as the Dolphins dominated the Patriots in the trenches on both sides of the ball to hand the defending AFC East Champions their first opening day loss since being blown out by Buffalo to kick off the 2003 season.

Lamar Miller ran for 59 yards on 11 carries to compliment Moreno's effort, while Tannehill caught on fire after halftime to make up for a sluggish first half, eventually completing 18 of 32 passing attempts for 178 yards and the two touchdowns against one interception as the Dolphins achieved balance with the superb play calling of new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor.

Brady completed just 29 of 56 attempts for 249 yards and a touchdown, but his accuracy waned against the relentless Miami pass rush, consistently overthrowing his receivers.

Brady missed Thursday's practice this past week due to a reported calf injury, but most of his issues came from the Dolphins' pressure and the fact that the Patriots could not establish their running game despite the advantage they possessed against the supposedly overmatched Dolphins' reserve linebackers.

Shane Vereen carried seven times for 35 yards to lead New England on the ground, but Stevan Ridley's 21 yards on eight carries prompted offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to abandon the running game in favor of Brady's arm, the result being an 89 yard rushing total on a paltry 20 carries...

...and while the 4.4 yard per carry average isn't bad, the fact that receiver Julian Edelman gained 21 of those yards on just two carries on end-around calls inflated the average. 

Things started badly for the Patriots right off the bat, Miami blocking a Ryan Allen punt deep in New England territory that the Dolphins converted into a quick 7-0 lead, Tannehill hitting Miller on a four yard out just over three minutes into the game.

Brady came back to lead four consecutive scoring drives, Vereen capping off a 13 play, 80 yard drive to tie the score, than after a Stephen Gostkowski field goal gave the Patriots the lead at 10-7, Brady hit Gronkowski from six yards out for a 10 point cushion midway through the second quarter before the teams traded field goals to make the halftime score 20-10.

New England would not come close to scoring again.

Tannehill and Wallace took advantage of a Brady fumble, capping a four play, 34 yard drive with an 11 yard scoring toss and catch, that was sandwiched between two Caleb Sturgis field goals to give the Dolphins the lead late in the third quarter - then the Dolphins' pass rush and the running of Moreno helped hold off any hope the Patriots had of a comeback bid...

...including a soul-stealing 12 play, 85 yard drive that ground six minutes off the clock as Miami closed out New England by shoving the ball down their collective throat with the clock winding down in the fourth quarter, Morneo scoring from four yards out to give the Dolphins a 30-20 lead.

The Patriots were hurt by committing untimely penalties, including two roughing the passer penalties on outside linebacker Chandler Jones, while tight end Michael Hoomanawanui was called for a critical holding penalty that erased a 22 yard run by Stevan Ridley that would have put the Patriots in position for points midway through the final period.

The loss has to be particularly discouraging for the offensive and defensive lines, given that the offensive line was working against the aforementioned depleated Miami linebacking corps in the running game, and the fact that the defensive line couldn't generate any productive pass rush nor could they stop the run against a Dolphins' offensive line that was breaking in five new starters.

Most assuredly, it is back to the drawing board for the bewildered Patriots as they attempt to shore up sloppy tackling and and poor execution on both sides of the ball - and it's not going to get any easier for them as they travel to Minnesota for a matchup with the Vikings and running back Adrian Peterson next Sunday.







New England Patriots on Paper - Running game has opportunity to get on track against Dolphins

"The megalomaniac differs from the narcissist by the fact that he wishes to be powerful rather than charming, and seeks to be feared rather than loved. To this type belong many lunatics and most of the great men of history." - Bertrand Russell

Sebastian Vollmer is a large human being.

Just pointing that out, because if the reports of New England Patriots' coach Bill Belichick moving his Pro Bowl right tackle to fill the ample shoes of departed left guard Logan Mankins, the shift could very well make the left side of the Patriots' offensive line one of the most physically imposing in the history of physically imposing.
Vollmer is a large, nasty run blocker

Vollmer and his 6' 8", 325 pound frame would line up on the inside shoulder of 6' 8", 325 pound left tackle Nate Solder, and Belichick's even been known to bring in one of his reserve tackles to either flank Solder on the outside as a tackle-eligible tight end, or as a replacement for Solder if he kicks out...

...and whether that's 6' 4", 300 pound Josh Kline or 6' 6", 320 pound Jordan Devey, they combine to form a literal road crew, with the only thing missing being the bored-looking, sunglasses-wielding, orange vest-wearing sign holders who instruct you to Stop or to drive slowly, lest you be crushed by massive road-graders.

And if the reports are true, the move of Vollmer to left guard would chance the entire dynamic of the right side as well.

6' 6", 335 pound Marcus Cannon would take over at tackle, with 6' 4", 310 pound Dan Connolly manning is old right guard haunt - and with the possibility of 6' 4", 310 pound rookie Bryan Stork seeing some snaps at center even if he doesn't start right away, that makes for a smaller, slightly more athletic right side, flanked by the 6' 6", 265 pound All World tight end Rob Gronkowski, who is just as good a run blocker as any of the linemen.

And that's the point.  The running game showed absolutely nothing in the preseason, save some nifty garbage time running by practice squad running back Jonas Gray - and that certainly isn't going to make the nut.

You see, Belichick is a megalomaniac.  He gives off the persona of someone who couldn't give a rat's ass what you think of him, but in reality, he cares a great deal.  He wishes to see the fear in his opponent's faces, as he wields his power over them - to Bill Belichick, to just beat his opponent is not good enough.  No, he wants to dominate them, break their will, and then crush them.

It's what every NFL head coach worth his salt wants, but nobody can do it without a powerful running game - and Belichick wants more.  He wants to run the football right into through heart of the Dolphins' defense like a tank busting through enemy lines and leaving nothing but destruction in its wake.  Megalomaniacs are like that.

But what he and his evolving offensive line are facing Sunday in Miami is a defensive line that is built to rush the quarterback - the starting front four accounting for 29 of the Dolphins' 42 sacks last season - while relying on a linebacking corps that were collectively less than inspiring for run support that, that notion supported by the fact that Miami ranked in the bottom third of the league against the run last season...

...of course, that was last season, but coach Joe Philbin's depth chart remains basically the same - and with injuries already taking a toll on the 2014 version of the defense, Belichick has to be licking his chops in anticipation of his running game shoving the ball down the Dolphins' collective throats.

Of their three starting linebackers, the Dolphins are listing two of them on the injury report, with the weak side spot being crippled by not only starter Philip Wheeler being declared out with a thumb issue, but also his backup Jordan Tripp with a chest injury.  That leaves only third year journeyman Jonathan Freeny on the weak side - and while Philbin would normally be able to counter with depth from other positions, injuries there limit his options.

Starting middle linebacker Koa Misi has been limited in camp with a shoulder ailment as has primary strong side reserve Chris McCain with a bum hip.  Both are listed as probable, but those injuries illustrate how far the Dolphins may have to stretch their depth chart to accommodate injury...

...which also gives us a pretty decent idea of exactly how the Patriots' offense should attack Miami - with plenty of play action to draw the ends into the loop in the pass rush, clearing rushing lanes off guard and off tackle, leaving only the decimated second level to deal with the increased heft of the Patriots' road crew - particularly behind Vollmer and Solder going left where the weak side depth is truly weak.

That should stem the tide of the Dolphins' pass rushers for the split-second, plenty long enough for the Patriots' pass catchers to gain separation on the short to intermediate levels where quarterback Tom Brady can nickle and dime them to death, drawing the coverage up even further and eventually opening up seams down the field.

This is not to say that Miami doesn't have talent in the secondary, because they have plenty - but a power running game that is going to force the Dolphins to bring a safety up into the box to help stop the run combined with the sheer number of personnel packages that Belichick can attack them with suggests that the Dolphins could find themselves overwhelmed.

Of course, all of this is dependent on the New England running game being all that it can be - because if they can't run the ball, Brady becomes a sitting duck in a collapsing pocket.

Players to watch:

Tom Brady - The calf injury that caused Brady to miss practice on Thursday caused a minor stir in New England as Brady thrives on practice, and to miss one is certainly news worthy.

Which leg is injured is unknown, but if it isn't significantly better by game time on Sunday, the ailment could affect his mechanics.  If it's his right calf, it could affect his push-off, which limits the amount of force he can get behind his throws, and if it's his left calf, that could make it difficult for him to step into his throws.

Of course, knowing that Brady is scheduled to play as usual probably means that he was held out of practice for precautionary measures, but it also raises some concern to his already naturally limited mobility - hence another reason to hope for a decent showing from the running game.

James White - The rookie runner has practiced well, but hasn't been able to find his groove in preseason games.

Most of that probably has something to do with trying to acclimate himself to the Patriots' zone blocking scheme which is decidedly different from the drive blocking scheme that he enjoyed much success behind in college.  It is of note that the reported move of Vollmer to the interior of the Patriots' line may mean more of the drive blocking look that could spring the Wisconsin product.

Also, look for Belichick to show the two back looks often during the game to force the Dolphins to account for both White and Shane Vereen curling out of the backfield, tying up the depleted linebacker depth and perhaps forcing a box safety to read and react instead of playing the run downhill.

Louis Delmas - The former Detroit Lions' strong safety has had a notoriously difficult time covering tight ends in the past, so it will be interesting to see how he handles Rob Gronkowski.

In reality, even the best safety will need double help on the best tight end in the league, which means Gronkowski will draw a linebacker up the seam with him, further tasking the run defense on the second level.  Delmas will have to be at the top of his game to handle whatever the Patriots throw at him in this game.

Tim Wright - A tight end that plays like a wide receiver.  Who gets the assignment to cover him?

Perhaps Cortland Finnegan - the instigator who isn't afraid to get up the face of bigger receivers - will get the nod, but more than likely the sheer numbers that the Patriots can throw at the Dolphins secondary will dictate a "by-committee" approach.

Wright changes the dynamic of the Patriots' pass catching corps in that his size and his experience at receiver makes him a dangerous compliment to not only Gronkowski, but to the offense as a whole - and this game should give us an idea of just how much as "win-win" proposition the Mankins-for-Wright trade really was for both teams.