On defense, they possess perhaps one of the best front sevens in the National Football League, yet they can't stop the run when opposing offenses spread them out. They sport a secondary that is so injured that they are being held together with duct tape and prayers, yet they are a top five pass defense unit.
Offensively, their passing game is just plain offensive, ranking dead last in the league and averaging 104 yards per game, being barely outgained by their running game, which would also be in the toilet were it not for a nifty, long touchdown run by their quarterback last week against the Bengals.
So on paper, the New England Patriots' defense should be able to put the beatdown on the Texans in Foxborough this coming Sunday.
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| Wise (91) and Flowers should be able to get to Watson this Sunday |
Hell, they should be able to punch them in the mouth, take their lunch money and stick bubble gum in their hair for good measure - but only if the Patriots play their game, dictating to the Texans' offense instead of falling for the inevitable trickery and unconventional approach that coach Bill O'Brien will try to cook up in order to go blow-for-blow with the powerful Patriots' offense.
Because despite their abysmal play in 2017, the Texans are built to compete against the likes of New England, and the things that they can still do well on both sides of the ball feed directly into what the Patriots struggle with both offensively and defensively.
For example, the Patriots traditionally struggle defending against mobile quarterbacks (Hello, Alex Smith) and give up a frustratingly significant number of first downs to such - and the Texans' just happen to employ a fellow by the name of Deshaun Watson, a rookie who feels pressure in the pocket whether it's there or not, and will tuck the ball and run like a like a pooch that just stole a hot dog at a bar-b-que.
His success ratio after being flushed out of the pocket is hit or miss, but he showed how elusive he can be against Cincinnati last Sunday, weaving through their secondary for a 49 yard touchdown scramble - but he's also been sacked seven times in six quarters of play. In fact, Texans' quarterbacks have been sacked 13 times in two games, and given the fact that three of their starting offensive linemen have been out of the lineup, that's not too surprising.
New England's top two pass rushers, former Arkansas teammates Trey Flowers and Deatrich Wise, have to be salivating at the prospect of facing such a depleted line, especially given that against the Bengals, the Texans played predominantly with a six-offensive lineman set, sacrificing their tight end play (They were down to a fourth-string tight end anyway) for an extra blocker to try and keep Cincinnati's monstrous pass rush off of Watson, but to no avail as the rookie took several mean shots and is listed as questionable on the Texan's injury report.
But when Watson did find time in the pocket, he was single-minded in targeting DeAndre Hopkins on over half of his throws and used running back Lamar Miller as his safety valve. Houston was hoping to get wide receiver Will Fuller, who has been inactive due to a broken collarbone, back this week - and he has returned to practice but has already been ruled out for Sunday's game...
...which means that Watson's targets will consist of Hopkins, Miller, tight end Ryan Griffin and wide receivers Bruce Ellington and Braxton Miller - not exactly a Murder's Row of downfield threats, though Griffin returning from the concussion protocol could spell trouble for New England's Patrick Chung, who appears to have lost a step in coverage.
While it shouldn't be a difficult task to generate pressure on Watson, the edge rushers will have to be alert to the Texans' tackles powder-puffing them, allowing them to rush upfield around the pocket, leaving the flat open for both the screen and for Watson to scamper off into. Like they would against any mobile quarterback, the Patriots will try to keep him in the middle of the field...
...where the Patriots defense could counter by mixing things up a little in their coverages, perhaps playing in their Big Nickel alignment but with cornerback Malcolm Butler playing in the stead of Chung as an impromptu "strong safety".
Butler has benefitted in the past by teams picking on a weaker set of corners opposite him, but now that the team employs bigger corners in Stephon Gilmore and the up-and-coming Eric Rowe, Butler is being exposed by teams that have the edge in mismatches, particularly underneath where he is not always able to fight through pick plays.
Butler brings the wood against the run, is great at sniffing out screens and has elite closing burst, plus he matches up well in size with running backs and has the speed advantage over tight ends - he seems to be more in his element when he sees the play unfold in front of him, and with Jonathan Jones making a case to take over in the slot, it's going to take some finagling to get Butler involved, perhaps at the expense of Chung.
One ploy we could see from the Texans is coach Bill O'Brien taking a page from the Kansas City Chiefs' bag-o-tricks, implementing a series of shuffle passes to get the ball to receivers crossing the face of Watson, which the Chiefs were moderately successful doing. The Texans don't have the overall talent like Kansas City does, but they will have Allen back this week and Braxton Miller could be a candidate for a little trickery...
...Ellington as well, though those are some mighty big trees for the 5' 9" speedster to have to navigate through, especially coming off of injury. Ellington is pure smooth hell on the bubble and counter screens, however, which feeds right into the game plan that the Texans will have to employ to have any chance of generating enough points to make a game out of it.
The Texans switched from veteran quarterback and stationary target Tom Savage midway through their season opening loss to Jacksonville and inserted the mobile rookie in hopes of being able to generate offense, but it has been a work in progress, with the progress being marked with baby steps.
Given the injury situation in Houston and the likelihood that New England comes into the game relatively healthy on defense, holding the Texans down like both Jacksonville and Cincinnati did could be a big morale booster for a defensive unit that has it's doubters.
Much of that doubt comes from the communications issues the secondary had against the Chiefs that resulted in three chunk plays that turned a tight game into a laugher that Kansas City took advantage of - and even though that same secondary gave up 350 yards to Drew Brees and the Saints last Sunday, the majority of those yards came in the second half with New England leading comfortably.
So, in a nut shell, Houston must attack the Patriots' defense by establishing a running game, which would bring Chung (or whoever is playing the Big Nickel) up into the box, then targeting Miller and rookie back D'Onta Foreman in the short passing game to both spread the field horizontally and keep the heat off of Watson - then they can use the play action to pick and choose their shots downfield.
Part of the game plan should include some of the aforementioned shuffle passes, though with an emphasis on the running game being a given, having seldom-used veteran run stuffer David Harris in the middle of the defense may mitigate that type of play with his instincts and experience.
The key is for the Patriots to stay in their gaps up front, don't fall for the powder-puff approach from the tackles and keep Watson inside the hashmarks.
It goes without saying that this will be a game where the Texans' defense will have to hold the Patriots well below their 31.5 points per game average to have any chance of winning, and we'll cover that in the next piece...
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