After all, their defensive line lost one of the better nose tackles in the league and their best pass rushing five-tech is coming off of offseason surgery on his pecs - but unfortunately for the New England Patriots, the positives that the Chiefs do possess on defense could play into matching up with the defending world champions - with some luck on the injury front.
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| Harmon (30) and McCourty (32) will have hands full against Chiefs |
Their two starting defensive ends, Chris Jones and Allen Bailey were recently activated after undergoing offseason knee and pec surgery, respectively, and their starting nose tackle, Bennie Logan, is a slight downgrade from a dominating force in Dontari Poe, who defected to Atlanta.
Their linebacking corps feature an aging Derrick Johnson, who has torn the Achilles tendon in both legs since 2014, and some ambiguity surrounding Tamba Hali, who has been replaced as a weak side starter by fifth-year rusher Dee Ford, and Justin Houston, who claims to be healthy after two years of dealing with bum knees.
But where the Chiefs potentially match up well with New England is in their secondary, where they have the personnel to run an effective nickel, using either a third corner in a conventional sub-package, or even a "Big Nickel", that will utilize a third safety.
The problem for them, however, is what will be the problem for every team on New England's schedule this season.
The Patriots can play the game any way you want. They can force the issue and aggressively pound you into submission with their move-the-chains methodology or they can sit back and take whatever the defense gives them. But New England biggest advantage on offense is that they can spread the field both vertically and horizontally at the same time, which will leave the middle of the field a virtual playground for quarterback Tom Brady to rule over like a bully.
There has never been a pass-catching depth chart in the history of the National Football League that comes close to what the Patriots are about to unleash - and so stacked are they in that department that teams will never be able to cover all of the weapons.
It all starts with Rob Gronkowski, who is both the Patriots primary weapon and ultimate decoy in the passing game, and perhaps the best blocking tight end in the game in the running game - he rarely comes out of the lineup and must be accounted for on each snap.
As mentioned, on paper the Chiefs are well-stocked in their secondary to account for the Patriots' pass catchers, but they have taken several hits on the injury front and may not actually have the personnel to pull off a coverage-heavy approach.
It is common knowledge that cornerback Steven Nelson has been placed on IR, leaving the second corner spot to Cowboys' retread Terrence Mitchell, which in turn leaves the slot to Phillip Gaines, who has dealt with chronic knee issues since entering the league - and to make matters worse, free safety Ron Parker is dealing with an ankle injury which has been limiting his participation in practice.
This has to be an issue for them coming into a game against the stacked Patriots. Their linebacker depth doesn't exactly scream "coverage", with only Houston and Ford really capable of any sort of pass defense in the pattern - and if the Patriots spread them out thin running 12 personnel packages (one tight end, two running backs, two receivers), there will be no second level to back up in run support.
So the only way the Chiefs' defense is going to be able to mitigate New England's passing attack it to do exactly as Houston said earlier this week: Get to Brady.
That means sending extra rushers after Brady at the expense of doubling up Gronkowski, Hogan, Cooks, etc., but it's the only chance they have - and the Patriots can counter with the aforementioned 12 personnel, or even a 22 personnel package to pick up the extra blitzers and to move the chains with the short, timing-based passing game...
...and once the Chiefs get tired of giving up first down after first down and being on the field for 14 plays at a time, Brady can wait for his opportunity to hit one of his speedy wide outs for a big play - because, make no mistake, this feeds right into the Patriots' persona on offense. They are a move-the-chains entity despite all of the speed and talent at their disposal.
The reason why is because methodically moving the chains is the most fundamental tactic in football.
The Patriots follow the mantra of the Erhardt-Perkins offense to the letter, in that they "Pass to score, then run to win.", meaning that the offense reaches it's optimum performance level when they are playing with the lead, though don't try to sell that to the Atlanta Falcons or their fans. The proof of this is in the results. Of the 19 games the Patriots played last season, they took the early lead in 14 of those contests...
...and did so the old fashioned way of methodically moving down the field with long, time consuming drives that sapped the energy out of the opposing defense.
The big question is, can the Patriots run the ball well enough to keep the Chiefs honest? They should be able to, given that Kansas City's defense ranked 26th in run defense last season, and did nothing to improve the number.
On the opposite side of the ball, the Chiefs have an explosive offense, but unless rookie running back Kareem Hunt can move the chains for them in short yardage, the explosiveness of the offense can be assuaged simply by New England corralling the Chiefs' top two weapons in All Pro tight end Travis Kelse and All-everything wide receiver Tyreek Hill.
Both players have elite get-off and separation skills, so the Patriots will most likely bracket them more often than not with Devin McCourty and Duron Harmon playing double-high safeties, leaving the coverages to strong safety Pat Chung on Kelse and either Malcom Butler or Stephon Gilmore tight on Hill..
...though it would not be a stretch to see Gilmore or fellow corner Eric Rowe take on Kelse, as they are both tall and play the ball well in the air. If Rowe is not on Kelse, he most likely would be assigned to cover the 6' 3" wide receiver Chris Conley.
In the running game, the Chiefs run primarily to the right, where they have as solid a set of strong-side blockers as anyone else in the league in guard Laurent Duverney-Tardiff and Mitchell Schwartz, anchored by up-and-coming center Mitch Morse. The same can not be said about the left side, as undrafted free agent Brian Witzmann mans the left guard spot while colossal first-round bust Eric Fisher handles the blind side as left tackle.
That said, look for New England to load up on the blind side in the pass rush while shading to the strong side with a linebacker to guard against the run. The one thing that New England defenders have to be acutely aware of is in over-pursuit in the pass rush, as the Chiefs like to let the opposition rush upfield, then dump the ball into the flat to one of their backs and to Hill, who lines up in the backfield on occasion.
All told, this looks like a winnable game for New England, if they move the chains and control the clock on offense to limit the possessions for the Chiefs.
Prediction: New England 42, Kansas City 24
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