Wednesday, September 27, 2017

Complementary Football Critical To Helping Patriots' Defense

"...quarterbacks have the capacity to control a football game in all three disciplines, and they do this by playing the field position game-within-a-game, and by controlling the clock - and while it is true that Brady doesn't play defense, it is equally true that he is the best there is at putting his defensive teammates in position to have the best chance at being successful." - Foxborough Free Press, July 4, 2017
Statistically, the New England Patriots' offense and defense are polar opposites.

Despite not being fully loaded due to injury and chemistry issues, the Patriots offense leads the NFL in total offense and in just about every passing statistic you could come up with, while the defense ranks last in total defense and in just about every passing statistic you could come up with.
Cooks and Brady have what it takes to help out the defense

Offensively, quarterback Tom Brady is playing out of his mind, and is on pace for 5,800 passing yards and 43 touchdowns - that is unless he gets killed before then, his offensive tackles playing a game of revolving doors with defensive ends that could see him sacked over 50 times this season.

His pass catchers could all have career numbers if things continue to play out, with wide receiver Brandin Cooks on pace for a 53 catch, 1365 yard season, while tight end Rob Gronkowski (85, 1269), the ever-clutch Danny Amendola (74, 1100), Chris Hogan (53, 821), and James White (64, 702) are all trending towards monster years...

...all the while, the defense is trying different combinations of personnel and alignments in order to mitigate the double-whammy of breaking in new players on top of injury and/or attitude among key incumbents.

Along the way, they have made opposing quarterbacks look like world beaters and made opposing defenses look they are running in circles - and the scary thing is, they are nowhere close to being where they want to be on either side of the ball. But the offense is closer and in a much better position to control the dynamics of a football game.

For example, back in July we opined on NBA Superstar Lebron James' remarks that he couldn't consider Tom Brady the greatest athlete in the world because he doesn't affect both sides of the ball by stating that, in essence, offenses in general and quarterbacks in particular have the ability to affect the defensive side of the ball more than most people realize.

Patriots' head ball coach Bill Belichick calls it "Complmentary Football", where if the team is running at full efficiency, it is because the defense feeds off the field position afforded them by the offense and special teams, and vice-versa, but while the defense is largely reactionary by nature, the offense seeks to control defenses by forcing them to react to various stimuli.

When an offense goes into a spread formation, the defense counters by sending it's corners to all points of contact, and if the formation calls for an empty backfield, the box between the hash marks is lightened up because the possibility of a running play decreases exponentially - conversely, if the offense goes into a "Jumbo" package with two tight ends and a fullback, the defense would normally stack the aforementioned box with plenty of big bodies to stem the likelihood of a running play.

The offense can also control things like how much time rolls off the clock, which is the main point.

The Patriots have had 37 offensive possessions in the first three games of the season, scoring on 17 of those (45%), but out of those scoring drives, ten of them came in at under 3:00 per possession and of those, eight came in at under two minutes - and on possessions where the Patriots did not score, 18 of those came in at under three minutes and thirteen of those eighteen came in at under two minutes.

The proof of how time of possession affects the team shows in breaking down the individual games. Against New Orleans in the second game of the season, New England  averaged a whopping 4:00 per possession and scoring seven times while limiting the number of possessions for each team to ten for the game...

...but in games against the Chiefs and the Texans, the Patriots averaged 2:07 and 2:00 per possession, respectively, allowing each team 14 and 13 possessions.

How much difference did those extra seven possessions make in the outcome of each game? It can only be speculated, but it goes to figure that the less opportunities a team has to score, the less of a chance they have to score - but it also goes to figure that a defense that has four minutes on the sidelines as opposed to two will be fresher and more rested and, therefore, better able to resist the opposing offense's whim.

Now, the offense isn't responsible for chunk plays given up by the defense, of which there has been a bundle - in fact, the offense isn't responsible for any of the miscues, communications errors or poor tackling by the defense, but they can help mitigate their effect by limiting the number of times the opposing offense has the ball, and can put their special teams in good spots to flip field position to expand the field.

Of course, this means that the Patriots would have the ball less often as well, but given the rate at which they score, that could still translate (and has translated) to over 30 points a game, particularly when winning the coin toss and deferring to the second half where they could potentially gain one extra possession.

It is also to be remembered that this defense is dealing with the aforementioned two-headed albatross in that they are dealing with injuries to core players and are breaking in new players - something that sometimes works on the fly, but most times not - whatever the case, those things are important to remember when breaking down the defense.

The front seven is most assuredly a work in progress, but it isn't as far away from being a finished product as most people fear.

The pass rush is getting to the opposing quarterback, as fellow Arkansas Hogs Trey Flowers and Deatrich Wise have proven a handful for opposing tackles, Flowers leading the team with three sacks in as many outings and Wise notching two in as many games - and early-season addition Cassius Marsh is now playing as advertised and registering a sack and a couple of quarterback hits after a rough start.

There is no way to properly address the horrific run defense except to point out that of the 391 rushing yards and 5.1 yards per carry that the Patriots' opponents have posted against them, other than the usage of personnel on the second level has been, shall we say, curious?

Indeed,  Star linebacker Dont'a Hightower has been missing since a little more than halfway through the season opener, and in his stead have been the odd couple mix of Kyle Van Noy and whomever is healthy enough to pair with him. Veteran David Harris hasn't been used at all and fellow run-stuffers Elandon Roberts and Harvey Langi have been used sparingly while the Patriots have chosen to go light in the box in order to get enough coverage on their opponent's pass catchers - so there are certainly resources available, especially if Hightower returns to the lineup.

The injury situation at linebacker has taken the most toll on the defense, opposing quarterbacks toasting the underneath coverages as over half of the total targets on the year have gone for 469 yards and six of the ten touchdown allowed by the defense thus far. At first, safety Jordan Richards was tried at weakside linebacker, which proved disastrous, and the Big Nickel isn't as effective as in years past as Patrick Chung appears to have lost a step in coverage.

That said, the secondary has been the real head-scratcher, as the Patriots sport the worst pass defense in the league, statistically, despite having one of the strongest lineups in the league on paper.

Having Eric Rowe missing for the past game and a half has stung, but Jonathan Jones has filled in admirably, and newly-minted top corner Stephon Gilmore has recovered from a rough season opener to post consecutive solid games. Malcolm Butler has been off his game as either communication or attitude have retarded his growth and chemistry - though he put in a solid performance against the Texans.

Obviously, both Jordan and Chung are seen as liabilities in coverage, leaving free safety Devin McCourty hanging out to dry a couple of different times on chunk plays that make up a great deal of the passing yardage.

That's an easy fix.

As mentioned in previous articles, Butler plays like a linebacker in a corner's body and could tremendously impact the underneath coverages by assuming the role of the Big Nickel "Star" linebacker that Jordan and Chung are struggling with, turning the biggest issue on the defense into a positive as Butler's speed and feistiness fit right into the job description of a coverage hybrid.

Something that isn't get enough airplay is the fact that punter Ryan Allen is struggling mightily, netting just 37 yards per punt attempt, most of his kicks flipping end over end. Punters are weird, like pitchers in baseball, and get into grooves where they struggle with aim and consistency, so it's likely that Allen has just reached a dry spot and needs to get off a couple of boomers to get back to his old self, who is a field position-flipping weapon.

The good news is that the Patriots are 2-1 and the injured defensive players are expected back sooner rather than later, but it is obvious that the offense and special teams are going to have to help out the defense until things start coming together for them - and the offense could start by getting their backs more involved, while Allen gets back to his normal production.

The problems on defense are not insurmountable, and with all three elements of the team improving each week, getting healthier each week and playing complementary football each week, the Patriots can be the complete juggernaut they need to be to get back to the Super Bowl.

If they can't do these things, it's bound to be a long, anxiety-filled season with no guarantees at the end...

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