Ranked the third worst offense in the league, the Panthers nevertheless match up very well against a Patriots' defense that has the worst statistical unit in the NFL, as one might imagine when considering the numbers - while Carolina's top-ranked defense has demonstrated that they have what it takes to counter anything New England's top-rated offense can throw at them.
On paper, the odds look to be stacked in Carolina's favor to not only come into Foxborough this coming Sunday and pull out a win, but to do so in a convincing manner.
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| Lewis, Gillislee and White (l to r) ,must become more involved |
And why not? The Panthers move the ball well on offense, but have become victims of their own design, turning the ball over deep in their own territory three times last Sunday against the New Orleans Saints, who scored 17 points off of those miscues - which were part of the reason why their defense suffered just 213 yards to Drew Brees and the Saints' passing game.
New Orleans played from a short field most of the game - and when that happens, there's only so many yards to be had, but Brees took advantage of every one of them.
So in reality, the Panthers' defensive numbers do tell most of their story, especially in the passing game where they are allowing a meager 162 yards per game and have yielded just three scores through the air, all of them by Brees - and though some credence has to be given to the fact that their first two opponents were not exactly offensive juggernauts, those are still very impressive numbers.
Against the San Francisco 49ers in the season opener, the Panthers allowed only 166 passing yards and 217 yards overall - and then against the offensively challenged Buffalo Bills, they were even more stingy, allowing 176 total yards and just 107 through the air. Those are elite numbers to be sure, but the Patriots' offense is in a different class.
New England's passing game is tops in the league, averaging an absurd 340 yards per game, helping them to a 33 point per game average despite injury-induced limitations in their personnel and every bit as dangerous as the Saints through the air - but while many in Patriots Nation believe that head ball coach Bill Belichick has changed his offensive philosophy to a more vertical attack, it is the exact opposite that works against Carolina's defense.
In three games, opposing offenses have attempted only 12 passes of twenty yards or more, completing three for a 25% completion rate - in contrast, the opposition has completed 60 of 77 passes for a 79% completion rate when targeting their pass catchers underneath, with backs and tight ends doing the majority of the damage.
It's not as if the Panthers' secondary is anything special, it's just that their front seven is so good at pressuring the opposing quarterback that they rarely have time to wait for a downfield receiver to go through the progression in their patterns.
Cornerbacks Daryl Worley and James Bradbury give lots of cushion in off-man coverages that are designed to prevent the big play. They are both big corners - same size as Patriots' Eric Rowe and Stephon Gilmore - but Bradbury is looking to rebound from a horrible game against the Saints where he was burned by Michael Thomas in coverage and lost contain against the run several times...
...while Worley busted up his shoulder in run support and is out against New England - and with the nickle back being the aging Captain Munnerlyn and with second-year man Kevon Seymour taking Worley's spot on the outside, the prospects for the Patriots' passing game look favorable, so long as the offensive line can keep Brady relatively clean in the pocket.
And that's the rub. How do the Patriots give Brady enough time go through his progression, but also keep him loaded up with route options?
Simply put, just play Patriots' football.
For years, the Patriots have dined on "small ball", stretching the field horizontally by spreading their tight ends and backs out wide and drawing their speedy little wideouts into the slot - in essence turning the opposing defense inside-out and forcing the corners into run support and the linebackers and safeties into boundary coverage.
They haven't been able to do much of that this season because their first three opponents have loaded up their pass rush, abusing the Patriots' tackles and coming after Brady like he insulted their mothers. In response, offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has had to keep at least one option in-line to either chip the outside rusher or pick up rogue blitzers.
That exacerbates the issue even further as it leaves Brady with one less target in the pattern.
The solution is, as we've mentioned for three weeks straight, is to use the pass rusher's aggressiveness against them by getting their backs involved in the offense on trap draws and the screen game. In both play calls, the tackles yield ground to the outside rushers until they take themselves out of their lanes, and then it's an easy flip to the back in the flat or in the bubble on the screen - or a quick handoff into the "B" gap.
Either would eventually draw the pass rush off of Brady, as would establishing a running game, which the Patriots have succeeded in doing early in ball games, only to abandon it in favor of gambling on chunk plays.
Which is a shame, as the running game is little more than a novelty at this point, averaging 3.5 yards per carry mostly because New England is one-dimensional with their backs, which completely defies the promise of diversity that came with the signing of Rex Burkhead, the contract extension for Super Bowl hero James White and the return to full health for Dion Lewis.
The thought was that any of the three could break the Patriots' playbook wide open, given that they all have proven to be effective in the running game and approaching elite status in the passing game, but due to the aforementioned ineffectiveness of the offensive tackles and McDaniels' general malaise in regard to mixing the run and pass, that part of the New England arsenal has not manifested as yet.
Burkhead has been injured as well, and though he practiced on Friday, it would be a surprise if he were active for the Panthers' game - but that still leaves Lewis and White, and then power back Mike Gillislee to tote the rock.
Teams have been successful running the ball on the Panthers, as San Francisco's Carlos Hyde picked up 45 yards on 9 carries (five yards per carry) in week one and the trio of Mark Ingram, Adrian Peterson and Alvin Kamara picked up 115 yards on 25 carries (4.6 YPC) last week - so it's not beyond the realm of possibility that the Patriots could maintain an effective ground game themselves.
Because the running backs haven't been used in the manner in which breeds success - usually being called upon for several plays in a row until the defense stones them, then tossed aside in favor of the deep passing game - their combined 3.5 yards per carry doesn't really scare anyone, but their potential should. If the running game ever really gets rolling, the trickle-down effect on the rest of the offense could be catastrophic for opposing defenses.
Also, even though New England has been successful on those vertical chunk plays, they have to think of their obligation to the other two entities of the team, defense and special teams, and the impact that quick scores or quick outs has on them - for the special teams it could mean punting from deep in their own territory if a couple of those throws go errant, and for the defense, it means that they don't get their proper rest.
Ordinarily that wouldn't have the same impact as it does now, but with the injury bug taking down defenders like bowling pins, the defense just doesn't have the rotation to keep their front seven fresh.
The screen game and the trap draws also offer another benefit to the offense, as they can act in tandem with the running game to keep the defense off-guard, and put the play action in effect - and with New England and Brady being perhaps the best play action-selling unit in the league, bringing that back into the fold will eventually open up the vertical game in select spots.
In short, the Patriots have to get back to playing Patriots' football - methodically moving the ball down the field, eating chain and clock and wearing down the opposing defense, dictating the pace until they can do anything they want on offense, which is a scary thing to think about.
Just because the Patriots have the weapons to go vertical doesn't mean that they are somehow obligated to do so. It's fun to watch, but not practical in the grand scheme of things. The best way for McDaniels to approach his offensive game plan would be to run the ball and stick with it, spreading the field horizontally and getting his backs involved in the pattern...
...because if they can do that, the vertical game will come naturally in the flow of the game, which makes the entire offense that much more lethal.
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