Sunday, March 12, 2017

Hightower's Fit In New England Isn't Necessarily His Fit Elsewhere

The first big wave of free agency has crested and broken on the shore, yet Dont'a Hightower is left waiting for another big breaker.

Chances are, what he's going to get is being caught in a rip tide that brings him back to Massachusetts.

The New England Patriots' wayward son was given the opportunity to seek a blockbuster deal on the open market, looking to cash in on what has to be the most under-the-radar elite tenure in the National Football League for the past couple of seasons, but has thus far not found the kind of money that some of his former teammates have.

For example, former Patriots' defensive end Chandler Jones just signed a monster deal with the Arizona Cardinals - a five-year, $83 million contract with $53 million guaranteed - to remain in the desert, while former teammate Jamie Collins signed a mega-extension (four-years, $50 million with $26 million guaranteed) with Cleveland to anchor their linebacking corps.

But the Patriots dealt those two away, not wanting to deal with attitudes or protracted negotiations for the type of money that they could possibly command in free agency.

The Patriots feel differently about Hightower.

Surely, Hightower is worth at least what Collins got, yet he remains treading water - and Bill Belichick remains waiting to reel him in when the time is right.

The Alabama product is already a legend in New England, making game-saving plays in two different Super Bowls, plays that were directly responsible for two of the five Lombardi trophies now residing at One Patriots Place in Foxborough - and both plays demonstrate what makes Hightower the best big game linebacker in the league.

In Super Bowl 49 against Seattle, the Seahawks were down by four to the Patriots with under a minute left in the game, but had driven down to the New England five-yard line and were poised to take the lead.  The Seahawks had the leagues best rushing attack and two time outs working in their favor, and on first and goal from the five, the handoff went to the league's best running back, Marshawn Lynch...

...and "Beast Mode", as Lynch is called, cut through a hole between left guard and left tackle and appeared to have a clear path to the end zone, but Hightower, who was met by Seattle's massive left tackle Russel Okung at the three and seemed to be pinned to the inside, instead fought through the block and got a shoulder on Lynch's right thigh, dropping him at the one.

The rest, as they say, resides in Patriots' lore as on the very next play cornerback Malcolm Butler intercepted a Russell Wilson pass to preserve the Patriots' Championship - and his strip sack of Atlanta's Matt Ryan in Super Bowl 51 set in motion the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history.

But as we know so well, head ball coach Bill Belichick doesn't pay players based on past accomplishments, he pays them for what the market will bear in time with his future value to the team - so based on Hightower's age (27), experience in the system and leadership qualities, shouldn't them value him enough to lay out huge money for the guy?

The Patriots have plenty of cap space remaining ($34 million as of this writing) to make a deal with Hightower, as numbers being thrown around by football experts estimate that a fair deal for the linebacker would be in line with Luke Kuechly money, five years worth $61 million with half of that guaranteed - or roughly $12.2 million per year.

That's a significant increase in the extension proposal that the team offered Hightower at the start of the 2016 season, rumored to have been in the neighborhood of $10 million per season, but nearly as much as they would have paid him on the franchise tag, which would have been a little over $15 million - a little pricey considering that the tag includes the top average salaries for both inside and outside linebackers, of which outside linebackers make significantly more money.

That said, why didn't the Patriots just franchise him, or at least use the transition tag to make sure that they would be given the chance to match anyone else's offer?  Part of that has to do with Belichick's well-known respect for his players, combined with his desire to stay away from situations that take away his leverage in negotiations.

Belichick's respect for his players prompted him giving Hightower the opportunity to offer his services on the open market and to collect offers for said services.  Placing him on the franchise tag would have prevented him from doing so and may have lead into some acrimonious feelings between player and management - end even though the transition tag would have been feasible as well...

...but that could have ended up costing the team more in the long run, as to retain Hightower, the Patriots would have been forced to match any offer put on the table by another team.  Another way Belichick could have gone would have been to place him under the non-exclusive franchise tag, in which Hightower could have negotiated with another team and the Patriots would have the right to match the offer.

The limitations of the non-exclusive tag are binding in favor of the Patriots in this case, as if a team made an offer and the Patriots refused to match, New England would receive the team's first round draft pick, plus the following year's first-rounder.

So allowing Hightower to reach the open market was the only way to keep everyone happy.  Belichick could let the market dictate Hightower's worth and also give him the opportunity to make a counter offer without being locked into a certain dollar amount - but the situation remains fluid as Hightower is still out there, and being courted by a few teams.

But for a player as dynamic and versatile as Hightower is, why hasn't he signed elsewhere?

The popular opinion is that he's biding his time and waiting for a bidding war to start, while still others believe that Hightower has over-estimated his worth on the open market - ala Wes Welker - and wants to give the market more time to develop.

The truth is probably in the middle somewhere, but at least one AFC general manager has said that he expects that Hightower will return to New England on a team-friendly deal - not because the market isn't there for him, but because he fits in with what New England does on defense, and that wouldn't be true for many other teams.

Coming out of college, Hightower didn't have a true position.  Some saw him as strong-side linebacker, some as a defensive end - but Nick Saban, his coach at Alabama considered him a pure inside linebacker in a 3-4 alignment, playing the "scraper" position.  The scraper will be the more athletic of the two inside linebackers and by definition will plug the gap left by the "Mike" linebacker in the running game, and will blitz in the gap left by double teams on defensive linemen in the passing game.

They also will shadow mobile quarterbacks.  Hightower does all of these things, but does so from the weird variety of alignments that Belichick and his defensive coordinator Matt Patricia dream up - but he is most effective when the defense is aligned in what is known as the Big Nickel, which uses an extra safety that reduces down onto the second level and becomes, essentially, a weakside linebacker, taking on the "scraper" duties and allowing Hightower to flow to the football unabated.

Through the usage of this alignment, Hightower has become one of the best blitzing linebackers in football and almost always seems to be in the right place at the right time - one only has to revisit Super Bowls 49 and 51 to see prime examples of this.  But the Patriots have incorporated his skill set into their defensive scheme in order to free him up to do the good work that he has...

...and the fact of the matter is that there are very few teams, if any, who can plug Hightower into their defense and count on the same sort of elite production, given the fact that he will most likely be exposed to more obstacles on his way to the football.

To further elaborate, in the past few days since the start of free agency, the Patriots have re-signed two of their most important core players in order to keep the Big Nickel viable - safety Duron Harmon, who has proven himself to be one of the premier centerfielders in a league full of single-high safeties, and defensive tackle Alan Branch, who commands double teams and creates gaps for linebackers to flow to.

The Big Nickel is not possible without Harmon's sideline-to-sideline agility and instinctive angles to the play, nor is it possible without Branch taking on double teams.  In Belichick's philosophy, every player is asked to do one job - maybe two - and most players are versatile enough to be schemed into the game plan differently each week, and that goes for Hightower as well.

There is no doubt that Hightower deserves a pay raise, but in the end, he is part of a winning formula on a New England that will figure out a way to go on without him.  They value him enough to have offered him eight figures annually as part of an extension, then showed him enough respect to let him hit the open market to discover what his value was around the league.

A few years back, the aforementioned Wes Welker over-valued himself on the open market and ended up burning enough bridges to make his return to New England impossible - a sentiment echoed by Patriots' owner Robert Kraft who stated that if it was just a matter of a million or two to keep Welker in the fold, that wouldn't have been a deterrent to bringing him back, but his mouth and attitude were.

It looks as if Hightower's value is well below what he could have made with the various tags, but possibly more than the $10 million a year he was offered last offseason, and Hightower hasn't burned any bridges and has, in fact, kept in close contact with the team as he travels about - so the possibility of him landing back home appears to be very good...

...so if New England ponies up a Kuechly-like contract that will give him $12 million annually, it should satisfy all concerned, then Hightower and the Patriots can get on with the business of football, and leave all of this money nonsense in the past.

Money Not Biggest Reason Players Depart From New England In Free Agency

Martellus Bennett signed with the Green Bay Packers for $6 million per year.  Jaball Sheard and Barkevious Mingo went to Indianapolis for $7.5 million and $2.5 million, respectively.  Chris Long just left with no forwarding address.

While it is not known what, if anything, was offered to Sheard or Mingo or Long, we do know that Bennett was offered $1 million more per year to sign an extension with New England before the start of the 2016 season - his reason?  Well, we didn't know until now, and it's the same reason why the other three left.

Playing time - or in Bennett's case, touches.

Long said as much in his farewell tweet to the fans of New England, as he had been long-used to being on the field in a full-time role with the Rams, but when he and Sheard were relegated to situational roles as part of the Patriots' overall defensive scheme, it was only a matter of time before their attitudes got the best of them.

For Sheard, that happened in late November when he was benched and left behind on the Patriots' west coast trip, but Long stuck it out, won his ring, and now wants to end his likely Hall of Fame career somewhere that he can contribute more than he did with New England.  Both players finished the season strong, both contributed to the epic Super Bowl comeback and both can be proud of their efforts.

Mingo played only 54 defensive snaps in his time in Foxborough, but contributed mightily on special teams, though collecting just four tackles - it was a role he played similarly in Cleveland before Belichick traded for him in the preseason, and one that he hopes to build on in Indianapolis.

That said, Mingo had no option but to suit up for New England as he arrived via trade, but Long and Sheard both knew the score when they signed.

The Patriots have long been known for situational rotation in their front seven, a philosophy that, along with Belichcik's intense, season-long, after practice conditioning program is designed to keep his bigs up front fresh for the fourth quarter, has been the difference between winning and losing close games - a philosophy that manifested it's success this past post-season.

The philosophy, known loosely in it's entirety as "Bend but don't break", saw New England's defense take their opponent's best shot in the first half and yielding an average of 14 points while their foe was still fresh - but when their opponent begins to tire in the second half, the Patriots' rotation on defense starts to manifest and the result in the playoffs saw them give up just a miserly 6 points.

And teams that have quick strike offenses - like the Atlanta Falcons, for example - are at a particular disadvantage, as their philosophies tend to keep their time of possession down and puts their defense back on the field before they are properly rested.

It has worked that way for years, and it's no secret - and while one has to wonder why other teams in the league don't employ such a proven tactic, the answer is very simple: most other teams employ players who are bigger names that have egos requiring maximum playing time to satiate, piling up stats as they go along. Even the Patriots' secondary follows a loose rotation in which the corners switch up coverages so as not to be run ragged by deep threats and the safeties in the Big Nickel take on added responsibility.

So defensive players coming to New England understand that, for the most part, they are going to have to share the wealth as far as playing time, and stats be damned.

But what about Bennett?  The self-titled "Black Unicorn" enjoyed the most successful season of his career by far, and also enjoyed the best catch percentage of his career, but his overall statistics told a story of a man limited by the offensive scheme, one that employs a certain All Pro named Rob Gronkowski, who is ready and raring to go when the 2017 season begins...

...not to mention that he was competing for touches with names such as Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan and passing back James White, with Edelman and White easily outdistancing him with targets and catches, and Gronkowski was on pace to obliterate Bennett's targets and catches as well before suffering a season-ending back injury.

Now, however, Bennett is going to a place where he will be the playmaking tight end and catching balls from a magician named Aaron Rogers in an offense that saw it's tight ends catch a combined 60 passes last season.

Green Bay let primary tight end Jared Cook leave in free agency, then signed former-Ram Lance Kendricks to compliment Bennett, much the same way Bennett complimented Gronkowski in New England - and one has to wonder if Bennett was on board with the decision to bring Kendricks in, knowing that the six-year veteran will be cutting into his touches.

Regardless, the deed has been done and Bennett is a Green Bay Packer.  He has earned to right to go where he wishes and he couldn't have landed in a better spot outside of New England.

In the end, all of this answers Patriots' fans' questions like why the team doesn't normally sign big-name players when there are so many on the open market.  It's not always a matter of cap space, nor simply a matter of compensation, overall - instead, it comes down to a matter of patience in the front office, letting the market dictate a player's worth and allowing them to slide down the scale...

...not so much to limit the amount that they pay a player, but to give the Patriots leverage in negotiations while selling their philosophy.

Thus far in free agency, New England has lost a couple of players, re-signed most of their core players, and have been selective in offering contracts to players on the market, with only cornerback Stephon Gilmore and defensive end Lawrence Guy having been added to the roster.  The rest of the new blood have entered the region via trade, having been identified as players that Belichick can further build his game plans around...

...at the same time absorbing mostly team-friendly salaries, which makes all of them the sort of low-risk, high-reward rotational role players that make the Patriots annual contenders - and five-time Super Bowl champions in the Belichick era.

Saturday, March 11, 2017

Patriots "Draft" Cooks, Allen, Ealy; Still Have Plenty Of Cap Space For Hightower

Who needs draft picks?

Certainly not the New England Patriots, who have dealt away enough of their 2017 selections that they literally wouldn't have to show up at the draft in Philadelphia until late on the second day - that is if head ball coach and defacto general manager Bill Belichick doesn't make any more deals to slide up or down the draft board.

Currently, the Patriots have six selections - down from the eleven they started the new league year with last Thursday, and down from the fourteen they possessed (see below) before making moves during the 2016 season - with the 72nd overall selection at the top of the third round being their top pick.  But Patriots fans needn't fret, because their team has gotten better and younger trading for established NFL players without having to endure the uncertainty of selecting a player in the draft who may or may not have the gumption to make the jump from college to the pros.

Belichick's deals in the past calendar year:

1st - 32nd to Saints for Cook
2nd - 64th to Panthers for Ealy
3rd - 103rd to Saints for Cook
4th - 118th (from Saints) to deflategate
         137th to Colts for Dwayne Allen
5th - 175th to Browns for Mingo
6th - 215th to Lions for Van Noy
7th - 250th to Lions for Michael Williams

This has always been Belichick's M.O.  Not seen as a particularly good drafter by the casual fan, Belichick actually has drafted 37 players in the past ten seasons who have made positive contributions to the dynasty, 28 of whom have earned Super Bowl rings in the past three seasons.  That is over half of the best roster of players in the National football League...

...with five players during that span making the team as undrafted free agents.  That leaves twenty players that the Dark Master has brought into the fold as free agents or by trade, and many of those have been other team's high draft picks.

Of those twenty on the roster last season, nine were former first or second round selections by other teams and six were undrafted free agents that other teams developed into quality players.

For example, during the 2016 league year, Belichick brought in names such as tight end Martellus Bennett (2nd round, 2008, Dallas) from the Bears in exchange for a fourth round pick, linebackers Barkevious Mingo (1st, 2013, Cleveland) and Kyle Van Noy (2nd, 2014, Detroit) for a fifth and seventh round pick, respectively, and cornerback Eric Rowe (2nd, 2015, Philadelphia) for a conditional 2018 pick.

They had even better fortune in free agency, plucking defensive end Chris Long (1st round, 2008, St. Louis), linebacker Shea McClellin (1st, 2012, Chicago) and undrafted gem Chris Hogan off the NFL's scrap heap to become integral pieces in the Patriots' title run.

As one can see, the Patriots' roster is built with a solid balance of homegrown talent, shrewd wheeling and dealing, and fortuitous cherry picking.

But 2017 is uncharted territory for Belichick, in that never in his tenure has he entered a draft without either first or second round draft capital - but that has been offset by spending those picks in advance of the draft, and getting as close to guaranteed premium value as you could expect for them, and avoiding all of the uncertainty that comes with drafting college players.

Their first rounder and one of their third rounders went to New Orleans in exchange for wide receiver Brandin Cooks (1st round, 2014), a proven commodity as a pass catcher with elite speed and open field moves that could rival the magic act of running back Dion Lewis.

Cooks brings speed to an offense that has lacked such since the days of Randy Moss.  His routes are sharp, which should bring a big smile to the face of quarterback Tom Brady, and his ability to play from just about any position in the receiving corps feeds right into the Patriots' concept-based offensive philosophy - for certain, his ability to win from the slot should take a lot of pressure off of both Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola, and his deep speed should loosen the seam for tight end Rob Gronkowski.

That's a lot of pressure to put on one player, but Cooks has proven his ability in those situations, earning his quarterbacks the fifth-best passer rating in the NFL when targeting him - and the fact that Cooks is a proven commodity should make the team and fans look at this deal as draft capital well spent.

The Patriots' second rounder now belongs to the Carolina Panthers, who sent defensive end Kony Ealy (2nd round, 2014) and their third rounder to Foxborough.  Ealy has three years worth of experience and has played in a Super Bowl where he would have been likely MVP with three sacks, an interception and a forced fumble, had the Panthers not imploded on offense.

Otherwise, Ealy has been hot and cold in the Panthers' scheme, but his style is perfect for what New England likes to get out of their pass rushers, though there is some inconsistency in Ealy's game as an edge-setter in the running game.  The Patriots' philosophy in rushing the passer has always been to collapse the pocket and force the opposing quarterback off his mark, and Ealy can be special at that as he forces left tackles to respect his speed and then can dip inside to force the quarterback out.

But just like Chandler Jones before him, he's still developing as an edge-setter and can disappear at times - still, signing Ealy and getting third rounder in the same package provides youth and depth to a defensive line that became shockingly thin on the edges with the free agency departures of Long and Jabaal Sheard, and fans can expect to see Ealy used much the same as those two, in a situational rotation.

A third, less celebrated deal was made when New England sent one of their three fourth round selections to Indianapolis in exchange for tight end Dwayne Allen.

Patriots' fans should remember that it was Allen signing a four-year, $29.4 million contract extension with the Colts last season that caused an unwarranted criticism of the Patriots' front office in regard to tight end Rob Gronkowski's contract - with Gronkowski tweeting, jokingly, that the Patriots picking up his $10 million option during the offseason (which kept him a member of the Patriots until 2019) was a "pay cut".

What Gronkowski was referring to was that in picking up his option, he was due only $2.25 million in base salary last season and $4.25 this season before the numbers increase to $8 million and $9 million in 2018 and 2019, respectively.  In fairness, Allen's deal included only a $4 million signing bonus, $2.5 million this season and next and $6.5 million in 2019.  The rest of the salary is tied up in per-game roster bonuses.

The kicker and the talisman for the Colts trading Allen?  A $2 million roster bonus due at 4:00pm last Thursday, which the Patriots absorbed as part of the trade.

Salary snafu aside, what should have Patriots' fans intrigued is that Allen's skill set is remarkably similar in the pattern to former-Patriots' "move" tight end Aaron Hernandez, which never fit in with the Colts' downfield attack, though he averaged 11.6 yards per reception in 2016.  Bigger and stronger than Hernandez, Allen uses his wide body to shield off defenders and gets in and out of his breaks effortlessly, showing his numbers to be an effective, chain-moving possession type receiver.

But not only did the Patriots load up on top-shelf talent with these trades - not to mention picking up cornerback Stephon Gilmore (1st round, Buffalo, 2012) and re-signing essential role players in safety Duron Harmon, defensive tackle Alan Branch, fullback James Develin and assigning a first-round tender to cornerback Malcolm Butler - they did so by making just a slight dent in their available cap space.

Comparatively speaking, that is, as the Patriots have just pennies under $40 million in cap space remaining of the $62.9 million that they started free agency with the majority of that going to Gilmore, a shut-down press corner, while both Cooks ($1.56 million with salary and roster bonus) and Ealy ($903k with salary and roster bonus) coming on the cheap for such top-level talent...

...leaving Belichick plenty of space to both bring defensive captain and Super Bowl hero Dont'a Hightower back into the fold, as well as make more deals as he sees fit. Still, that leaves the Patriots with just the five draft picks:

3rd - 72nd
4th - 131st
5th - 163rd, 183rd
6th - 200th
7th - 239th

But knowing "Trader Bill" as we do, don't expect his draft board to remain like that, as he may very well try to work his way back into the second round...



Friday, March 10, 2017

Friday's Updated Facts And Rumors - Belichick's Fiscal Genius Shining Through

There isn't a smarter and more decisive general manager in the NFL than Bill Belichick.

Knowing that he was likely going to lose defenders Chandler Jones and linebacker Jamie Collins, the Dark Master unloaded them in their contract years last season, replacing them on the fly with names like Trey Flowers and Kyle Van Noy - and in the process offering those replacements the experience in his system to hit the ground running in 2017 instead of going through the growing pains of learning said system in a structured environment like OTA's and minicamps.

What those moves accomplished on a financial basis, along with expiring contracts, is that it set the New England Patriots up with just over $60 million in cap space heading into free agency, shining a bright light on Belichick's genius in cap and roster manipulation.

He knew that there was little chance that he would be able to retain names like Martellus Bennett and Logan Ryan because play making tight ends and decent cover corners are in high demand throughout the league, meaning that some desperate team was going to overpay them, so Belichick instead set his sites on retaining the core of his defense and again gambling on the health of Rob Gronkowski.

With Bennett enjoying a whirlwind tour of potential suitors willing to pay him top dollar and Gronkowski announcing that he will be ready to go for training camp, Belichick undermined the entire process by trading a low-round draft pick to cap-strapped Indianapolis for tight end Dwayne Allen, who has been teasing Colts' fans with his potential for five seasons after being drafted as the reigning Mackey Award winner out of Clemson.

At 6' 4" and 260 pounds, Allen's style is more of a rough-and-tumble move tight end who excels in the short area as a chain moving "move" tight end, shielding defenders from the ball and with a short-area burst that makes him potentially explosive in the Patriots' offense.  So while not as dynamic as Bennett - Allen is nowhere near the blocker the Black Unicorn is - the onus will certainly be on Gronkowski to stay healthy as a seam buster and elite blocker in the run game.

Not usually given to exorbitant shopping sprees nor distracted by shiny beads and bobbles, Belichick decided to treat himself to a top cover corner, shelling out $15 million annually on former Buffalo Bills' cornerback Stephon Gilmore - and while considered a shocking move by those in the national media, it is seen a pure genius in Foxborough.

With Pro Bowl corner Malcolm Butler and third-year neophyte Eric Rowe already onboard, bringing in Gilmore suddenly makes an already very good Patriots secondary elite, considering that he already has the best, most versatile rotation of safeties in the league.

But Belichick's work is not done - though he is close.  He still has zero depth at the defensive end position and has a matter of trying to lure defensive captain linebacker Dont'a Hightower into some sort of a hometown discount, and still has over $32 million in cap space to play with.

Think about that for a second:  with only defensive end depth and retaining his playmaking middle linebacker left as priorities, the most shrewd wheeler and dealer in the league has $32 million left in his cap account.  If the season started today, he still has one of the best - if not the best - offense in the league returning intact, and he has already re-signed core defenders Alan Branch and Duron Harmon, leaving him with very few holes to fill and with a ton of cap dollars in which to do it.

Certainly, he is not finished making moves, as he typically waits until the second week of free agency to snatch up veterans that have over-valued their worth on the open market to line his depth chart.

Scary - or at least it should be to the other 31 teams in the National Football League who are all looking up at the Patriots' juggernaut that just won their second title in three years and were already the odds-on favorites with Las Vegas bookmakers to defend their championship - and they are only going to get better...

Breaking update:  Patriots have acquired defensive end Kony Ealy and a third-round pick from the Carolina Panthers in exchange for their second-round pick in the 2017 Draft.

6:30pm Packers signing Martellus Bennett

Potential Patriots moves:

Lawrence Guy (Ravens):  At 6' 4" and 305 pounds, Guy runs a 4.8 and is best fit as a five-technique defensive end in a 3-4 alignment.  A scrapper, Guy worked his way into a rotation on the Ravens' defensive line and earned a second contract from the team in 2015.  He is visiting Foxborough on Friday, where he would project as an inside technique run stuffer on obvious running downs.  If signed, Guy would be a typical Patriots' rotational signing.

Justin Hunter (Bills):  Another player standing 6' 4", Hunter has great speed and burst to be an outside receiver to take the lid off of a defense.  He has bounced around a bit after being drafted by the Titans in 2013, mostly due to the mental part of his game - he has never been the same after tearing an ACL in college and he appears at times to lose concentration when knowing that his knee is exposed to safeties.

Brandin Cooks:  The speedy wideout is still being connected to the Patriots, but it appears that the rumor involving the Patriots flipping cornerback Malcolm Butler in exchange for Cooks is just a pile of bad noise. It was thought that the Saints would make a decision on Cooks by the weekend - and it still may happen - but without Butler's name attached the Saints are looking for a first-round draft pick, and the Patriots have defensive needs that would be better served with that pick.

Logan Ryan:  As expected, Ryan has signed elsewhere, inking a three-year, $30 million contract with the Tennessee Titans, who have methodically put together an impressive roster the past couple of offseasons, and are contenders in the admittedly weak AFC South.

Dont'a Hightower:  The Patriots have had what Hightower calls "Positive talks" in retaining the Pro Bowl linebacker, and the longer he waits to accept an offer from other teams, the better the chances are that New England can retain him.

Jimmy Garoppolo:  After a wild morning that saw Jimmy Clipboard's Instagram account being hacked and posting a farewell message to Patriots' fans, sanity has been restored to New England to all but beat writers who insist that every move that they can't understand made by other teams has something to do with Garoppolo.  Many sources have revealed that the Patriots do not want to trade their back up.

Barkeveous Mingo:  Mingo didn't exactly cash in, but he did find a home with the Indianapolis Colts, signing a one-year, $2.5 million contract with the Colts.

Jaball Sheard: The Colts are also interested in Sheard, who would have to play as a stand up, weakside linebacker in their 3-4 alignment if signed.  Sheard left a meeting in Miami with the Dolphins without a contract, so if the Indianapolis visit doesn't go well, could we see Sheard back in New England?  The big free agency money is gone, unless Cleveland or San Francisco are interested.

Update: Sheard has signed a contract with the Indianapolis Colts.

Cameron Fleming:  Huge "sixth lineman" and restricted free agent was tendered at his original fourth round level, which is worth nearly $2 million in 2017 if not signed by another team.  If he is, the Patriots will receive that team's fourth round selection.

Thursday, March 9, 2017

New England Patriots' Depth Chart - Updated Daily

At present, the Patriots look better on paper than they did last season, with the exception of defensive end, which should be addressed in the draft...

Quarterbacks

Tom Brady
Jimmy Garoppolo
Jacoby Brissett

Will he stay or will he go?  Crazy rumors floating around involving Jimmy Clipboard, with the craziest being Cleveland talking crazy compensation.  Crazy.

Running Backs

James White
Dion Lewis
Tyler Gaffney
D.J. Foster
James Develin
Glenn Gronkowski

Is Gaffney a viable power back?  The consensus is, who knows?  The duck-footed 220 pounder from Stanford hasn't played an NFL down, but looks good in preseason and in practice.  The Patriots are all set at the passing back position and Lewis could be the featured back - but look for Belichick to bring in some reinforcements.

Wide Recievers

Julian Edelman
Danny Amendola
Chris Hogan
Malcolm Mitchell
Devin Lucien
Matthew Slater
De'Andrew White

With four solid pass catchers that have tons of experience, there shouldn't be a need for anything but maybe a speedy lid lifter.  Brandin Cooks has been rumored, but rumors are rumors...

Tight Ends

Rob Gronkowski
Dwayne Allen
Rob Housler
Matt Lengel

Dwayne Allen could be described as a poor man's Martellus Bennett, while Housler is a pass catcher only and Lengel makes his bones blocking.

Offensive Tackles

Nate Solder
LaAdrian Waddle
Marcus Cannon
Cam Fleming
Michael Williams

Solder had a terrible first half of last season, but came on at the end, while Cannon had such a great season that he was named a second-team All Pro.  Solder's cap hit is enormous going forward, so look for Belichick to take a tackle early in the draft.

Offensive Gurads

Joe Thuney
Shaq Mason
Tre Jackson
Chase Farris
Chris Barker
Jamil Douglass

Thuney was roughed up in pass protection in his rookie year, but Mason made great strides and was the most improved player on the team.  If Jackson comes back healthy, he represents quality depth.

Centers

David Andrews
Ted Karras

Both players are mean scrappers.  No need to upset that apple cart.

Defensive Tackles

Alan Branch
Malcolm Brown
Vincent Valentine
Woodrow Hamilton
Darius Kilgo

With a rotation like the Patriots have on the interior, they dominate late in games when the stops really matter.  A very solid group.


Defensive Ends

Trey Flowers
Rob Ninkovich
Geneo Grissom
Kony Ealy

Yikes!  Flowers and nink are quality players, with Flowers ready to explode onto the elite scene, but quality depth is needed in a hurry.  Breaking update:  Patriots have acquired defensive end Kony Ealy and a third-round pick from the Carolina Panthers in exchange for their second-round pick in the 2017 Draft.


Linebackers

Kyle Van Noy
Shea McClellin
Elandon Roberts
Trevor Bates
Jonathan Freeney

Van Noy emerged as a leader in the middle of the defense late last season, and McClellin's star is on the rise.  Roberts is a downhill run stuffer with no fear at all.  Still, a linebacker should be in the offing in the first couple of rounds of the draft.


Cornerbacks

Stephon Gilmore
Malcolm Butler
Eric Rowe
Cyrus Jones
Jonathan Jones

Gilmore, Butler and Rowe represent the best set of corners in the league - if they remain together.  At this point, it doesn't make any sense to break them up, not even for Cooks, who is rumored to be in a deal for Butler going to the Saints.


Safeties

Devin McCourty
Patrick Chung
Duron Harmon
Nate Ebner
Jordan Richards

McCourty, Chung and Harmon represent the best set of safeties in the league, and allow Belichick to run his Big Nickel without fear.


Kickers

Joe Cardona
Ryan Allen
Stephen Gostkowski

Patriots Free Agents - Thursday's Updated Facts And Rumors

An up-to-date listing of the Patriots' impending free agent movement and rumors, as of 3/8/17:

Malcolm Butler:  In a shocking development, it has been revealed that the Patriots are considering an offer from the New Orleans Saints to acquire wide receiver Brandon Cooks in exchange for Butler. It's not that surprising to see something like this emerge as the Patriots tried to finagle the lightning fast Cooks from the Saints a couple of weeks ago, but were unwilling to pay New Orleans' asking price of a first-round draft pick.

New England landing Stephone Gilmore and signing him to a rich (read, Hightower money) five year contract and Belichick's penchant for unloading contract year players to obtain maximum value for them lends plenty of stick-to-it-iveness to the report.  That said, if the season were to start today, the starting corners would be Gilmore and mid-season pickup Eric Rowe.

What makes this rumored deal even more enticing is the fact that Cooks is signed through 2018 on a very cap-friendly contract, and has the ability to take the lid off of defenses with his 4.33 speed and sure hands.

The rest of today's free agency developments:
Three-tech defensive tackle Branch (97) is back in the fold

Alan Branch:  Considered a must-sign, the Patriots did just that on Thursday, inking the behemoth defensive tackle to a two year, incentive-laden contract that is reported to be worth "up to" $6 million annually.  Great news for the middle of the Patriots defensive line.

Logan Ryan:  Add the Steelers, Bears and Lions to teams pursuing Ryan, whose commodity has risen substantially the closer we get to the start of the league year.  With the Patriots uncharacteristically ponying up $14 million a year for the hot and cold former Bills corner Stephone Gilmore, it appears Ryan's days in New England are done.

Duron Harmon:  According to several sources, the Patriots are working on a long-term deal to retain Harmon, whose presence would solidify a secondary that has been upgraded (depending on your point of view) by Belichick, and would certainly keep his preferred "Big Nickel" alignment in play for the foreseeable future.  This was expected, as we reported yesterday, "he has more upside and value with the Patriots than just about any other team, and shouldn't command a lot on the open market."

Update: Harmon has signed a four-year, $20 million contract to remain with the Patriots.

Martellus Bennett:  The list of teams enticed by Bennett has grown to include the Raiders, 49ers and Jaguars after being linked to Giants, Jaguars and possibly Detroit and Miami as well.  The potential bidding war and Bennett's comments about being intrigued with playing in northern California mixed with the Patriots' signing of the Colts' Dwayne Allen means that his days in New England ore over.

Dont'a Hightower:  The Patriots have had what Hightower calls "Positive talks" in retaining the Pro Bowl linebacker, but interest is rumored to be high among the Lions, Dolphins and Browns. Tennessee has reportedly entered the sweepstakes for his services and the fact that he posted an Instagram pic from Nashville last evening lends credence to their interest...and his.

Michael Floyd: Currently serving a 120-day jail sentence, the biggest loser in the rumored Butler-for-Cooks deal would be Floyd, as he was on shaky ground to begin with after being left off the Patriots active roster after a terrible divisional round performance where he appeared to run improper routes.

No updates for the following players:

Cameron Fleming:  Huge "sixth lineman" and restricted free agent was tendered at his original fourth round level, which is worth nearly $2 million in 2017 if not signed by another team.  If he is, the Patriots will receive that team's fourth round selection.

Jaball Sheard: No news on the defensive end.  He could be considered damaged goods by being internally suspended by Belichick in mid-season, driving his market price down.

Chris Long:  Announced via Twitter that he would not be re-signing with New England because he wants a bigger role than Belichick can promise.  That announcement, along with the uncertainty over Sheard and the aging of stalwart Rob Ninkovich could potentially leave the Patriots in desperation along the edges.  Look for the team to pursue a free agent or go high in the draft for an edge player.

Barkeveous Mingo:  Rumors all over the place about Mingo, who played just 54 snaps for New England last season. Perhaps some team has visions of him being the explosive pass rusher he was in college, something that he showed in the preseason with the Patriots, but never materialized in the regular season as he was relegated to primarily special teams.

LeGarrette Blount:  His annual foray into free agency will probably not garner him much more than what he made last season, so there is a chance he could return to New England on a similar deal.

Brandon Bolden:  No news out of Foxborough on the special teams core player.


Wednesday, March 8, 2017

Patriots Free Agents - Updated Facts And Rumors

An up-to-date listing of the Patriots' impending free agent movement and rumors, as of 3/8/17:

Martellus Bennett:  Linked to Giants, Jaguars and Bills according to Jason La Canforna, possibly Detroit and Miami as well.

Dont'a Hightower:  The Patriots have had what Hightower calls "Positive talks" in retaining the Pro Bowl linebacker, but interest is rumored to be high among the Lions, Dolphins and Browns.  A wildcard in the Hightower sweepstakes could be Oakland.
Both Hightower (54) and Sheard (93) are unrestricted free agents

Malcolm Butler:  The team tagged the restricted free agent with a first-round tender worth nearly four million dollars.  If any team puts in a bid on the Pro Bowl corner without the Patriots matching, that team will owe New England a first-round draft pick.  That scenario seems unlikely.

James Develin:  Patriots signed the fullback to a two-year $2.85 million contract with a $300,000 signing bonus.

LeGarrette Blount:  His annual foray into free agency will probably not garner him much more than what he made last season, so there is a chance he could return to New England on a similar deal.

Brandon Bolden:  No news out of Foxborough on the special teams core player.

Michael Floyd: Currently serving a 120-day jail sentence, there is little talk about Floyd.  He became sort of a cult hero in his limited body of work with New England last season, but was left off the active roster after a terrible divisional round performance where he appeared to run improper routes. He could be back at the right price, but no one but Bill Belichick knows what that is.

Sebatstian Vollmer: As expected, his days in New England are officially over after being cut early this week.

Cameron Fleming:  Huge "sixth lineman" and restricted free agent was tendered at his original fourth round level, which is worth nearly $2 million in 2017 if not signed by another team.  If he is, the Patriots will receive that team's fourth round selection.

Jaball Sheard: No news on the defensive end.  He could be considered damaged goods by being internally suspended by Belichick in mid-season, driving his market price down.

Chris Long:  Announced via Twitter that he would not be re-signing with New England because he wants a bigger role than Belichick can promise.  That announcement, along with the uncertainty over Sheard and the aging of stalwart Rob Ninkovich could potentially leave the Patriots in desperation along the edges.  Look for the team to pursue a free agent or go high in the draft for an edge player.

Alan Branch:  No news yet on Branch, but it sounds as if he's open to returning to New England and probably wouldn't break the bank.  A must-sign under the circumstances.

Barkeveous Mingo:  Rumors all over the place about Mingo, who played just 54 snaps for New England last season. Perhaps some team has visions of him being the explosive pass rusher he was in college, something that he showed in the preseason with the Patriots, but never materialized in the regular season as he was relegated to primarily special teams.

Logan Ryan:  The Bengals are prepared to break the bank to sign Ryan.  That said, they annually overpay for players in the secondary with little return for their investment, and have offered big money to incumbent corner Dre Kirkpatrick.  Ryan's tenure is up in the air, particularly since the Patriots just extended Justin Coleman, but just like all of Belichick's free agents, the market will dictate his value.

Duron Harmon: He has more upside and value with the Patriots than just about any other team, and shouldn't command a lot on the open market.  The one thing that could be enticing to him is if a team offers him a chance to get starter's snaps, but he gets plenty in Foxborough to begin with.  The market will dictate his price.