Saturday, September 2, 2017

The Patriots' 53: Owning Up To Our Predictions; Trader Bill Makes It A Wild Ride

Bill Belichick didn't like the looks of the options he had at final cutdowns, so he dipped into his magic bag of trade leverage and filled every hole the Patriots had - and then some.

The New England Patriots eclectic and often volatile head ball coach and defacto general manager had holes to fill at wide receiver, punt returner, edge-setter and as depth in the secondary, and took care of all of them in three separate trades over the course of Saturday afternoon.

The first trade brought special teams ace Johnson Bademosi over from the Detroit Lions.  He's listed on their depth charts as a cornerback, but with his speed and range, his most likely fit in New England is backing up centerfielder Duron Harmon. His signing spelled the end of any chance undrafted free agent safety Demarius Travis had of making the final roster, though he should be back as a scout squad player.
And then, there were two...

The second trade of the day blew everyone's mind and polarized Patriots' nation as Belichick traded promising second-year quarterback Jacoby Brissett to the Indianapolis Colts for former first-round receiver Phillip Dorsett.

The trade confirms that Colts' quarterback Andrew Luck may not be returning as quickly as previously thought, after having surgery on his throwing shoulder in the offseason - and also that the Colts aren't sold on career backup Scott Tolzien as their long-term answer if Luck is out for more than a game or two.

It also lends a somewhat positive spin on the future of resident quarterback-in-waiting Jimmy Gaoppolo, who is entering his contract year, as Belichick would never put himself in a position to lose leverage in contract negotiations by dealing away said leverage away, so he must have some assurances from the Garoppolo camp that their client is going to play nice on an extension that will likely make him an instant multi-millionaire...

...an extension that would contain a large signing bonus to keep Garoppolo happy in sitting on the bench behind Brady for a year or two, loaded with incentives that would pay him starter money should he unexpectedly start receiving starter's snaps due to illness or injury.

On the flipside, Dorsett brings 4.28 speed to a team that just signed Brandin Cooks (4.33) and already had one of the best receiving corps in the NFL, plus brings some punt return experience, as he returned both punts and kickoffs at the University of Miami, but saw very little special teams action in his two seasons with the Colts.

The third trade was perhaps the most impactful of the three, Belichick sending a fifth and seventh round pick to Seattle for "Jack" linebacker Cassius Marsh.

Marsh was a fourth-round pick by the Seahawks in 2013, who originally thought of him as a five-technique defensive end, as he played such in college at UCLA, but he didn't bulk up as quickly as they would have liked so they compromised and played him at the "Jack", or the rush linebacker on the strong side of an offset 3-4 line.

The wheeling and dealing is most likely not over, but for now, let's take a look at the Patriots' 53-man roster as it stand at the moment, with our picks for players who didn't make the roster crossed out and players who made the team either by trade or some other decision in italic script:

Quarterbacks (2):

Tom Brady
Jimmy Garoppolo

Brissett had a nice stat line in the preseason finale, but is still suffering from some breakdowns in mechanics, as evidenced by several high throws and a couple of worm-burners that his receivers had to hit the turf to get to.  That said, the Patriots did well to get a former first-round draft pick from the Indianapolis Colts in exchange for Brissett.

One of the more intriguing subplots to this trade is that the Patriots would not have dealt Brissett without getting some sort of assurances from Garoppolo that he was going to play nice and accept some sort of mid-range, bonus-and-incentive-heavy deal to remain with the Patriots until Brady decides to hang 'em up.

Running Backs (5):

James White
Mike Gillislee
Dion Lewis
Rex Burkhead
D.J. Foster
James Develin

No surprises on this list, although with the Edelman injury and the resultant overall dynamic of the offense changing to compensate, White should take a more active role in the slot and lined up wide to take advantage of mismatches and to spread the second level thin.

Perhaps the thought was that was going to fall to Foster, who also has some punt return experience, but with the acquisition of Dorsett, both of those jobs were better placed elsewhere.

Receivers (6):

Julian Edelman (IR)
Brandin Cooks
Chris Hogan
Malcolm Mitchell
Danny Amendola
Matthew Slater
Phillip Dorsett (Acquired in Brissett trade)

Dorsett is even faster than Cooks, believe it or not.  So the way the depth chart is rounding out, the Patriots may have the most lethal vertical attack in the league, especially when including Hogan, Mitchell and, of course, Gronkowski up the seam.  But they could also elect to use that speed underneath - regardless of how they play it, the Patriots' offensive playbook just opened up a little wider.

Tight Ends (3):

Rob Gronkowski
Dwayne Allen
Jacob Hollister

Hollister makes the roster as a one-dimensional "Move" tight end, with very little to offer in-line as a blocker - that job falls to Allen, who is a tremendous in-line blocker and an equally competent pass catcher.  Gronkowski returns as the leagues biggest and most lethal mismatch.

Offensive Tackles (4):

Nate Solder
Marcus Cannon
Cam Fleming
Antonio Garcia (NFI LIst)
La'Adrian Waddle

There isn't much information available on what's going on with Garcia, but his injury opens the door for both Flaming and Waddle to back up second-team All Pro Cannon and walk-year blind-sider Solder, respectively.

Interior Offensive Line (4):

Joe Thuney
Shaq Mason
David Andrews
Ted Karras
Cole Croston

Very much a surprise that Karras was cut, but he could be back as a scout-squad guy.  Cole Croston made the team presumably as a guard after he looked horrible as a tackle in the preseason. Regardless, Thuney, Andres and Mason form a dominating interior line.

Offense total: 24


Defensive Line (7):

Malcolm Brown
Alan Branch
Trey Flowers
Vincent Valentine
Lawrence Guy
Deatrich Wise
Adam Butler

Two nose tackles in Brown and Valentine, four bigger five-technique ends in Branch, Guy, Wise and Butler, complemented by Flowers, who can play it any way you want.  The front seven is built to accommodate what I call a 3-4 plus one, which means an offset three man line playing odd spacing with a "Jack" linebacker being the fourth rusher.


Linebackers (8):
Dont'a Hightower
Kyle Van Noy
Shea McClellin
David Harris
Marquis Flowers (Acquired in trade with Bengals)
Elandon Roberts
Harvey Langi
Cassius Marsh (Acquired in trade with Seahawks)

Marsh was picked up from the Seahawks in a trade at final cutdowns.  He was originally thought to be a five-technique end in their system, and he did play some in that capacity, but he was even better as what the Seahawks called a "Leo" linebacker - that is, a  linebacker that stands up on the strong side end of an offset 3-4 defensive line as a Pass rusher, just like we saw with Harvey Langi in the preseason.  In the Patriots' defense, it is known as a "Jack" linebacker, and now New England has plenty to go around.

Cornerbacks (4):

Stephon Gilmore
Malcolm Butler
Eric Rowe
Cyrus Jones (IR)
Jonathan Jones
Justin Coleman (Traded to Seahawks)

New England traded cornerback Justin Coleman to Seattle in exchange for a late-round draft pick. This means one of two things occurred: either Coleman was going to make the Patriots' roster and the Patriots ultimately decided that the draft pick was more valuable at this point, or, The Seahawks really wanted him and knew he wouldn't pass through waivers, which would have meant putting in a waiver request was going to be a crap shoot.

With Cyrus Jones going on IR, what the team would be looking for was a punt return specialist, not necessarily another cornerback, particularly considering how stocked they are at safety.  Gilmore, Butler and Rowe represent one of the better cornerback trios in the league, and Jones seems to have added value to his standing in the secondary by excelling in the slot during camp.

Safeties (7):

Devin McCourty
Patrick Chung
Duron Harmon
Jordan Richards (left off original projections)
Nate Ebner
Brandon King
Damarius Travis
Johnson Bademosi

Belichick added Bademosi to the roster on cutdown day from the Detroit Lions in exchange for a sixth-round draft pick.  He is listed as a cornerback, but he is really a free safety with the tools to be a centerfielder.  In the grand scheme of things, he represents one of the best special teams players in the league, but may just be in Foxborough due to core coverage team standout Nate Ebner being nicked.

With just four corners on the roster, the Big Nickel trifecta of McCourty, Chung and Harmon may take on even more significance, depending on the opponent.

Defensive total: 26


Specialists (3): 

Joe Cardona
Ryan Allen
Stephen Gostkowski

Did you really expect anything different?

Specialists Total: 3

2 comments:

  1. Sorry to see Brissett go and wish him well, but you gotta figure Belichick knows what he's doing....

    ReplyDelete
  2. May the Almight God PLAY with the TEAM AS ALWAYS.AMEN

    ReplyDelete