Patriots Sign Lamar Miller; Reaffirm Dedication To Running The Football

The reclamation projects just never stop in Foxborough.

On Sunday, the New England Patriots signed veteran journeyman(?) Lamar Miller and his surgically-repaired ACL to a one year contract – a surprise move given the strength and quality of the Patriots’ running back kennel, leaving all of us to wonder if the signing is a sign of trouble with third-year “lead” back Sony Michel.

Michel, of course, was placed on the team’s PUP list last week as he rehabs from foot surgery in the offseason, but we all assumed that second-year redshirt Damien Harris would be picking up Michel’s slack, with Rex Burkhead and James White providing a change of pace – and that most likely still is the case, despite Miller’s signing.

In fact, Miller may just be camp fodder unless he clearly out-performs one of the incumbents on the roster, with another option being placed on the injured-reserved list if he shows promise but isn’t quite ready to compete.

At his best, Miller is a crisp cutback runner between the tackles and has a second gear to get around the corner – and then has an extra gear once he breaks into the open field. The fastest back that came out of the 2012 NFL Draft, speed is his calling card. If his knee has fully healed and he regains his ability to cut against the grain, he offers more in the running game than Michel.

In fact, assuming Miller makes the 53-man roster, the Patriots are in better shape in the backfield than they were a week ago, and even then they were pretty stacked.

It is universally thought that the Patriots had one of the best running back depth charts in the league to begin with - even with Michel on the shelf – but now they have three similarly sized backs with decidedly different styles, plus the most effective passing back in the league, meaning that New England can now play the running game anyway you like it.

You want a slasher with elite speed, a threat to take it to the house on any touch? That’s Miller. You want a grinder who punishes linebackers and always gets the extra yard? That’s Harris. How about a guy who does a little of both? Yup, Burkhead – and even though all three are capable in the pattern, James White is dependable as they come wheeling out of the backfield.

Add all of that to the fact that they will be running behind one of the best zone-blocking schemes in the league and with a dual-threat quarterback running the entire show, what you get is a commitment to run the ball.

Of course, Newton is the catalyst with a skill set not seen in New England before. Let’s face it, Tom Brady was glued to the ground, but had decent elusiveness in the pocket - but more and more in the past couple of years, when the pass rush was closing in, he would simply take a seat and live to see another play…

…while Newton is an apparition, with the start and stop ability to leave would-be tacklers grasping at air. On reputation alone, defenders will have to account for Newton’s running ability on every play, his repertoire including RPO experience and a knack for scrambling out of trouble. But where his presence affects the running game is on the outside zone plays that Offensive Coordinator Josh McDaniels loves.

Newton is in his element In the outside zone. Where Brady would simply turn and hand off to his backs, Newton can and will employ elements of the double and triple options, so the need for a cutback runner with speed became paramount the moment Newton signed his Patriots’ contract – and that’s the reason Lamar Miller and his sub-4.4 speed now resides in Foxborough.

Actually, there is a lot to like about this year’s incarnation of the Patriots’ offense. Sure, there are a lot of variables in play – health and replacing players who have opted-out at the forefront – but if the universe unfolds in their favor, we could witness a renaissance of sorts, back to the days when the Patriots featured a powerful running game that sets up the passing game.

With head coach Bill Belichick being a rooted in the fundamentals of the game, I can’t wait to see how he shapes his offense when in his element – because there’s nothing more fundamental in football than running the football.

Newton Offers Increased Optionality For Patriots’ Offense

Optionality is a financial term that, in short, is the value of additional optional investment opportunities available only after having made an initial investment, and with the recent signing of quarterback Cam Newton, the New England Patriots are suddenly lousy with those additional opportunities – not only in terms of cap dollars, but also on the playing field.

Most teams’ average investment on the quarterback position runs at about 16% of their cap space, which includes both the starter and the backup(s), but with Newton signing a bargain-basement contract, the Patriots’ investment of 1.5% is the greatest value in the league. Even if Newton reaches all of the incentives on his contract, the Patriots still come in at just a quarter of what other teams are spending.

Combined with the grievance relief that the team was granted from the league over the contracts of Aaron Hernandez and Antonio Brown, the Patriots suddenly find themselves with maneuverability in their cap space, opening up options on the free agent market, though they will most likely keep that money in reserve in hopes that Newton does reach those incentives.

Hopeful, because a successful Newton will likely mean success for the entire team.

As mentioned, optionality (in the context of football), isn’t limited to cap dollars, it also translates to the playing field as their investment in Newton expands the playbook in ways that have to have Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels salivating…

…and also translates to Newton himself, who, with a successful season, can capitalize on the investment he’s made in himself by signing what amounts to a “Prove It” contract, opening up options and giving him leverage in contract negotiations beyond the 2020 season, be they with the Patriots or on the open market.

That said and true, many around the National Football League are still wondering why a former-MVP in the prime of his football career would settle for a one year contract from the New England Patriots with so little guaranteed money that it looks like a mid-round rookie deal.

Why, indeed!

The market for Newton wasn’t what one would call robust, but wouldn’t it have been better for him to wait until camps opened and the inevitable injuries occurred, prompting panicked head coaches to reach out to him with an exponentially lucrative offer?

In the short term, that probably would have been the way to go for the former first-round draft pick of the Carolina Panthers, but taking over for an injured starter has many different layers to it, and the process can become so convoluted that it becomes volatile at a point in his career where stability is paramount, lest he become sadly known as a journeyman…

…but in the long-term, New England looks to be the perfect place for the of-late, oft-injured trend-setter to not only revive what was once a spectacular career, but to also market his wares in order to gain a contract more befitting a player of his ability.

The Patriots have all the tools in place to help Newton do just that, and with their 2021 cap situation looking far better than this season’s dead-money albatross, Newton could easily find himself the franchise signal caller.

Newton is no dummy. He’s betting on himself to regain his pre-injury dynamism, and he chose the best place in the league to try and accomplish just that. Most athletes in his position and with such a celebrated past are looking for the best money and see themselves as a savior of sorts, stepping in with the mind-set that they alone can elevate the team to relevance…

…and it is far too early to project whether Newton fits into that category, especially given his flamboyancy and confidence, but the fact that he signed for the veteran minimum in guarantees gives one the impression that his only goal is to prove that he is still relevant.

Belichick is no dummy, either, as he likely sees Newton as a super-sized, more athletic version of his long-lost favorite son, Jimmy Garoppolo, whom he was building around to accommodate his skill set as the heir to Brady – so much so that even after Garoppolo was traded, the Dark Master continued along the chosen path, knowing that he was already locked in to a philosophy that would end the dynasty had he kept hold of Brady for a couple of more years.

We all saw it, right? The talent that Belichick built his 2019 team with didn’t jibe with Brady’s skill set at all, causing the greatest of all time to bitch and bristle about iron deficiency of the offense. It was purposeful on the part of Belichick, as he wasn’t about to be caught with his pants down once Brady left – and certainly not after the weird contract that Brady signed before the start of the season that left Brady with all of the leverage.

So Newton, assuming he beats out Jarrett Stidham for the starting role, steps into a ready-made offense that plays fabulously into his style.

It’s worth noting that neither Belichick nor McDaniels are likely to move off their spot so far as their conceptual philosophies are concerned, nor should they, but it goes to figure that if Newton is indeed under center, his presence allows for expansion and evolution of the concepts.

We are about to witness a much more diverse and open Patriots’ offense, perhaps one that is more powerful and exciting than in years past. Where the offense was a model of efficiency and consistency with Brady at the helm, with a ratio between the running game and passing game consistently around 40:60, with Newton calling the signals that should flatten out to a more even mixture…

…and not for any reason other than that’s the way Belichick’s team-building philosophy has been trending, and with Newton on board, the perfect storm exists for the Patriots’ dynastic ways to continue.

How? The answer to that question starts in my next article, which reveals the fact that the Patriots’ offensive line and zone-blocking scheme are perfect compliments to Newton’s skill set.

Brady Frustrated Over Lack Of Offensive Production; Calls Out McDaniels?

18 November, 2019

Tom Brady is less than enthused about the New England Patriots' win over the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday evening.

Bill Belichick was thrilled - as are all of the Brady detractors in the Boston-area media, but for very different reasons. Many are trashing the certain Hall of Fame quarterback for not only his performance against the Eagles, but for his dour attitude in both his post-game presser and on his weekly radio show appearance on Monday morning.

Belichick, the eternal grouch, positively beamed as he stood on the podium following the game, joking around about Julian Edelman's passer rating and discussing the merits of ice cubes on sore shoulders after the receiver's scoring pass for the Patriots' lone touchdown.

But Brady, the glass-half-full, politically-correct optimist, slouched in his stylish parka at the lectern, his beard bordering on standard depression trim and with rummy-looking red eyes that translated his emotions without him having to utter a word - which is what nearly happened anyway, as Brady uttered one sentence replies to media questions.

The student, it appears, has become the master.

At issue, is his apparent displeasure with both the ultra-conservative play calling from offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and the pass catching weapons that he's been given to mete out the aforementioned play calling.

Who really knows? Not me, but I know that I was frustrated with the play calling on Sunday. I mean, how many times can you call a screen play that the other team has sniffed out every time before you realize that another plan of attack is needed? How many times will you lose yardage on toss sweeps before you realize that the bad guys are defending the edges like a pack of rabid badgers?

Those two things are related, don't you know. The Eagles' defensive game plan was apparently to ground New England's screen game, which meant dedicating resources to the edge, which is why when the Patriots ran that toss sweep, there were plenty of green shirts waiting for the runner.

The majority of Brady's passes were sent outside of the hashes - again, where the Eagles were concentrating. So it's no wonder that when Brady went over the middle, he found guys open and hit on a decent play or two.

In the red zone offense, the Patriots threw the ball on three consecutive plays when presented with a goal line situation instead of trying to mix it up with a power run or two, and ended up with a field goal. This also speaks to an apparent lack of trust in the running game, when the only way to build that trust is by practical application.

The thing that is really baffling is why Brady was sent on bootleg rollouts to the right. Talk about telegraphing. Brady has all the athleticism of a sloth, so putting him on the run to the flat puts him and the entire offense at a distinct disadvantage, and the Eagles know that. They know he isn't going to tuck the ball and run with it.

They know that running to the right hash reduces the space that his receivers have to operate in, and it limits Brady's options. So the Eagles stuck with their assignments and covered everything, knowing that there was only one thing that is going to happen once Brady is out in space in the flat.

Sure, I get that they were probably doing that to protect Brady against left tackle Marshall Newhouse's turnstile act, but that's what's called being dictated to by the opposing defense. And when that happens, seventeen points (or fewer) is what you get.

On the bright side and illuminated by the rays of sunshine emanating from Belichick, the Patriots' defense recovered nicely from a slow start, made their adjustments on the fly, and shut down the Eagles' offense for three full quarters.

And Belichick should be happy about that. And so should Brady.

But here's the thing: I know from being a chef for more than three decades that there are times that even when you create a successful dish, you can still be upset with the manner in which it was produced, and want to make changes in the process. The result will still be a phenomenal product, but you feel better about how efficiently it was created.

Maybe that's what's going on here. I don't know, but listening to Brady talk Sunday night and Monday morning, that's the feeling I get when invariably reading between the lines. Of course he likes the win, but he didn't care for the way they got it. Brady made this very clear on his radio show appearance, saying that they need to figure out how to generate more offense.

This is a departure for Brady, as he rarely if ever calls out anyone in the organization, and is usually upbeat and can find a silver lining in just about anything. His silver lining in this scenario is also an indictment on the performance of the offense, that is, his offense is now forced to ride the coattails of the Patriots' excellent defense.

That's hard cheese for Brady to swallow, as for most of his stellar career he and his offense has had at least an equal stake in the team's overall success. But now he feels that his offense is simply taking what the opposing defenses are giving them instead of pressing the issue and forcing the defense to actually defend.

Being dictated to is the exact opposite of being aggressive, and Brady has the offensive structure to be aggressive, but the play calling is not allowing for that.

For years, McDaniels has been built up as an offensive genius, solid play caller and is viewed around the league as an attractive head coaching candidate with gonads the size of coconuts – but something happened to him along the way, and Brady doesn't like it.

Those who have followed this blog over the years know that I am hardly a fan of Josh McDaniels, and may feel that my interpretation of Brady's disgust is influenced by it – and perhaps that is true in small measure, but now it seems that when faced with problems, McDaniels is folding like a cheap tent and allowing defensive coordinators to dictate to him how his offense performs...

...and reducing Brady to no more than a game manager, which is a level far below his pay grade and a waste of such rich talent.

Get used to Brady being demure and grouchy, because his countenance is not going to change until he is allowed to be aggressive and take the game to the opposition. It may be that Sunday's win over Philadelphia is just one of those anomalous instances where McDaniels comes up with a stinker of a game plan.

It has happened before, and the team usually rebounds the next game and McDaniels is back to being Boy Wonder – but Brady's reaction to this particular game plan indicates that he feels that it may not be one of those rarities, rather, that he sees no easy solution or that his hands have been tied.

The Patriots have won titles with less talent than they have now. They are getting as healthy as they can be and are primed to run the table as far as Brady can take them – he just needs to be turned loose and not tied down by conservative game planning and taking what he wants and needs by force.

That is the Patriot Way, after all.

Chatty Letter To Josh McDaniels

Dear Josh,

Hey, me again! I'm starting to get the idea that you're never going to reply to my repeated correspondence, and since the authorities haven't shown up at my door to arrest me on charges of harassment, I have to assume that either you lost your Gal Friday or you shitcan my letters as soon as you see the postmark...

I don't need your acknowledgement, but would it kill you to pick up a pen and demand that I stop writing to you? At least call me a son of a bitch and threaten me with legal action, up to and including a cease and desist order. At least then I'll know that I'm not wasting my time.

Which is ok in anyway, because these evil things are very therapeutic for me to write - you know, to kind of get things off my chest. I do so for many things in my life, and the subject I've chosen for today is football, mostly because that game against Buffalo on Sunday brought back so not-so-fond memories of the 2015 AFC Championship game...

...a frustrating end to that season in which the Denver Broncos advanced to the Super Bowl after beating your Patriots, only to be annihilated by the Seattle Seahawks for the World Title.

I'm sure you remember. You had to game plan for the Broncos without any healthy receivers and without a lead running back to take some of the pressure off of Tom Brady - and despite Brady having only a bunch of retreads and walk-ons to throw at and despite having no running game, you almost pulled that game out of your magic hat.

It was ugly, but the Patriots' defense rose to the occasion to keep the score close, and had your boss chosen to kick field goals in three consecutive drives into the Bronco's red zone in the fourth quarter instead of going for it on fourth and short on each drive, it would have been your Patriots playing the Seahawks two weeks later.

That's a story for another time - but what brought back these memories was the way your offense looked bogged down and incapable against the Bills last Sunday, much as they did in that AFC title tilt five years ago. There certainly wasn't as much on the line against the Bills as there was back then, and you managed to pull that rabbit out of your hat with much assistance from the defense and special teams.

Brady had a better chance of completing a pass at a cheerleader than to one of his receivers, throwing balls high and low and trying to force balls into double coverages down the field, and the few that actually found their intended targets were subject to finding the turf anyway, as his normally reliable pass catchers collectively developed a case of the dropsies.

The Boston media is pointing to this performance as an "I told you so" moment, in that they've been bemoaning Brady's pass-catching corps as being inadequate since the start of training camp - which is bullshit, of course, because Brady has plenty of trustworthy help in the pattern, with names like Edelman, Gordon and Dorsett as well as an elite checkdown option in running back James White.

White led the Patriots in both targets and yardage through the air, which we've both seen before in games that really mattered, and which leads me to believe that you thought that the matchup between White and the Bills' linebackers could be exploited as a way to open up the patterns for the wide receivers.

It didn't, but the thought was well received. White is a matchup nightmare against most linebackers, but with your running game being an afterthought and combined with the aggressive approach of the Bills' defense against your receivers, Buffalo was able to shut down your offense.

White caught eight balls and accounted for a full one-third of your passing production, which isn't necessarily a new thing as your backs handle the ball on about 70% of the offensive snaps anyway - and that brings me to the point of this latest correspondence.

Your running backs are capable of so much more than what we've seen thus far in 2019, and the way they are being used is really limiting your offense. And it's your fault.

Where was Rex Burkhead? Why hasn't Sony Michel been targeted in the passing game despite your incessant assertion that he would become more involved? Why does rookie runner Damien Harris continue to be inactive?

In case you haven't noticed, every defense you've faced thus far has bought into the fact that Michel is so one-dimensional that they can stack the box when he is in the backfield to stop the run, then concentrate on blanketing your receivers when he's not - and then when Burkhead sees only a handful of offensive snaps when he could be countering that trend, it makes me wonder if you are trying to just take what the defense gives you instead of you dictating to them.

Very passive game plan, vanilla you might say, as if you were trying to use the Buffalo game to get Michel going in the right direction, but all it did for me was to further strengthen my opinion that continuing to feed Michel when the defense knows he's getting the ball can't be an oversight, rather, it is undue arrogance on your part.

Look, Michel is a fine runner and he brought a spark to the running game last season that had been missing for at least a decade, and he was able to pop off about four-and-a-half yards per carry, and performed even better in the playoffs - but that was with a healthy offensive line, a violently-intentioned fullback- and with two tight ends who brought the wood in run blocking.

I hate to tell you this, but you don't have those things right now. The media is blaming the offensive line, but it your play calling and the improper utilization of your backs that should be blamed. If you are not going to use Michel in the passing game, why continue to let him run into a brick wall seventeen times a game?

Either include him in the passing game, or bench him. Those are your options.

You are using backups at left tackle and at the pivot, and while their pass protection is evolving as a whole, their run blocking with Michel in the backfield looks more like pass blocking, as the opposition are penetrating and pushing them backwards, forming a pocket and re-establishing the line of scrimmage three yards deep in the backfield.

You know better than I why this is happening. You know that Michel's single contribution to the offense is in running the ball, and without at least flashing him in the pattern, you have no way of keeping the defenses you face from stacking the box against him, hence the 2.4 yards per carry.

Burkhead is averaging 4.7 yards per carry, and White an even five, but this is because both of those guys are a threat to catch passes out of the backfield, so defenses are forced to go lighter in the box in respect for their route running and pass catching abilities.

This is not a coincidence. As much as watching your unit running the ball successfully, even when the defense knows it's coming, warms my heart. The sad fact is that the personnel you have at this point just can't pull that off - but you have the capability and personnel to go about this another way, you can be aggressive and dictate to the opposing defense with what you do have...

...and it all starts with how you deploy your running backs.

First, it's time to give Harris some snaps, and you can't do that while he's sitting in the booth wearing street clothes. Harris is a hybrid of White, Michel and Burkhead and could become your most enticing weapon. I'm just spitballing here, but I'm going to assume you kept him on the roster for a reason, and that reason is that the kid is a beast between the tackles and fluid in the pattern.

We all saw it in preseason. Granted, that was against defenses that were playing their second and third lines, but Harris dominated them. He came from a school that produces NFL-ready prospects, a school that boasts more alumni in starting positions than any other school in the country.

Harris split time at Alabama with now-Oakland Raider lead back Josh Jacobs, and ran just as effectively - and is one of only eight running backs in the history of that powerhouse to accumulate over 3,000 rushing yards in his collegiate career, practically mirroring what James White did while in a committee backfield with Melvin Gordon at Wisconsin.

Same with Burkhead at Nebraska. I'm assuming that you collected these backs because in your offense, the short passing game is used as an extension of the running game. Hell, even Brandon Bolden possesses those traits.

You don't see defenses stacking the box against any of them, with the exception of in short-yardage situations, and even then the defense is on alert in case White or Burkhead peel off and wheel out into the flat, because they are both just as dangerous in the pattern as they are between the tackles - perhaps more so.

Am I making any sense here, Josh?

Tom Brady may be frustrated with his lack of receiving options, but if he's looking for better production from the passing game, all he needs to do is look to his running backs to fill the void. White and Burkhead can both split wide, both can operate from the slot and both are adept at wiggling through the maw on screens.

Why are they not being incorporated into the game plan like this? You know better than I that if you split those two out wide, they take linebackers with them which - surprise! - lightens the box and takes away designed blitzes that get into Brady's grill, not to mention that bringing them back in motion puts those same linebackers back on their heels, not being able to anchor against the run.

Now, it could be that you are trying to coast through the cupcake portion of your schedule, serving opposing defenses vanilla creamer in their coffee and waiting until you hit the meat of your schedule to break out the hard stuff - and if that's the case, I apologize for my rant.

That would make a lot of sense, actually. I guess I'm just trying to remind you that people are watching and people genuinely care.

Best wishes,

Mike

McDaniels Has To Become Mix-Master For Patriots' Offense To Realize Their Potential

After dropping their first two games of the 2017 NFL season, the New York Jets have won three straight heading into their matchup with the New England Patriots this Sunday.

How they are winning is a mystery, however.

In the bottom third of the league in just about any stat you could come up with, the Jets seem to be winning using smoke and mirrors, slight of hand and the constant rubbing of rabbits feet, because there is no other explanation.

Using Gillislee Properly can only help Brady

On defense, they give up 143 yards per game on the ground and a yield of 4.6 yards per carry and through the air they cough up two touchdowns per game to their opponent despite posting a relatively miserly 211 yards per game in that category - while on offense, they go for 111 on the ground and 189 through the air respectively.

Not exactly a juggernaut by any stretch of the imagination, yet they are somehow tied for the AFC East division lead with New England and Buffalo, each with a record of  3-2.

Of course, their three wins have come against the offensively challenged Miami Dolphins, Jacksonville Jaguars and Cleveland Browns while their two losses came at the hands of the aformentioned Bills and the Oakland Raiders - but each contest has been about game planning and optimizing the talent that they do have, and it's worked pretty well for them so far.

For instance, in their win over Miami, they concentrated on stopping Jay Ajayi and the Dolphins' running game and dared Jay Cutler to beat them - the result being 18 yards on 11 carries for Ajayi and a typically dismal day for Cutler. Against the Jaguars, they concentrated on getting to Blake Bortles and let rookie running back Leonard Fournette have his yardage, and Bortles' game was just as dismal as Cutler's while Fournette carried 24 times for 84 yards...

...and against the Browns, they concentrated on nailing rookie quarterback DeShone Kizer, beating him so badly that he was replaced under center by Kevin Hogan, who fared better, but it wasn't enough.

The final score in two of those games were relatively close, but the one thing that they all had in common is that their opponents each scored last-second touchdowns, or got scores from their defense to make the score seem closer than it really was - as evidenced by the thirteen points per game they've surrendered during their winning streak, which reduces down to seven points per game if one were to eliminate defensive and garbage-time scores.

On the other side of the ball is a Patriots offense that is really in no condition to challenge the Jets' Defense.

After all, despite success on the ground, the Patriots inexplicably don't try to optimize the talent they have in the backfield, instead putting quarterback Tom Brady in harm's way by making him drop back to pass on a full two-thirds of New England's offensive snaps - which feeds right into what New York does best on defense.

Brady's forty pass attempts per game put him on pace to set a career high, which currently stands at 637 in 2012, and to top last season's number by more than 200 attempts, which is also partially due to Brady serving a four-game suspension - but still five more attempts per game.

The need to reduce Brady's exposure to abuse should be paramount, given his age and the fact that he's already had to peel himself off the turf more in the first five games of 2017 than in all of last season. To be fair though, the total sacks for all of 2016 is actually 24, and when considering that nine of those came with fleet-of-foot Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett under center in a total of four games, the numbers from the present season don't seem particularly out of line thus far.

Curiously, the running game has been virtually ignored at times when it should be foremost in the mind of offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.

After all, McDaniels used the running game to protect his young quarterbacks while they were filling in for Brady at the start of last season, protecting them while his young offensive line sought cohesiveness and chemistry - balancing out the offense to the point that the Patriots could have actually been considered run-heavy, even when Brady returned in week five...

...yet despite Garoppolo and Brissett being far more mobile than Brady, they still took ten sacks to start the season, and lost Jimmy Clipboard when he took a nasty hit from Miami linebacker Kiki Alonso and Brissett tore ligaments in the thumb of his throwing hand in the following game against Houston, rending him and the Patriots' offense inert the week after that in a shutout loss to Buffalo.

No matter which way you look at it, the song remains the same. Had the Patriots the same imbalance last season as they have this season, the number of sacks suffered by the quarterbacks would be virtually identical - one sack every 12.3 snaps in 2017 compared to once every 12.2 last season. But what's missing and what people are forgetting is that the line allowed fourteen more sacks the rest of 2016, and another nine sacks in three post-season games.

That means that in the 15 games Brady played in last season, he went down in the grasp of a defender twenty-five times and hit times-three.

So the line is just about where it was last season, considering the disparity between running plays and passing plays, which brings us to the eternal question of how to keep Brady upright so that he can survive the season and to give the offense a chance to realize it's full potential - not to mention matching up well with the New York Jets this Sunday - and the answer is as clear as a bell:

Run the damn ball.

Running the ball cures many ills, not the least of which is the fact that all Brady has to do is to turn and hand the ball off and become a spectator. Theoretically, mixing the run with the pass forced the defense to defend the entire field and paves the way for an effective play action sell that mitigates an aggressive pass rush to a certain degree...

...but having a 66/33 split between pass and run, respectively, causes the defense to focus on getting to Brady and dares the offense to beat them on the ground - but the Patriots are handicapped even more by the way McDaniels calls running plays when he decides to use the ground game.

Given the fact that power back Mike Gillislee has not been targeted in the passing game at all, it goes to figure that with him in the game, the opposition is going to stack the box against him - yet he still manages to break into the second level. Where things go south for him is when three or four running plays are called in succession as McDaniels seems to like to go with something until the defense stops it, then moves on.

New England has more success with James White or Dion Lewis in the backfield because they are used in both facets of the game, so teams have to account for them in both the running and passing games.

Gillislee hasn't been used a lot in the passing game, but he has great hands and once the play calling starts targeting him in the passing game, it will eventually force defenses to respect him as a receiving threat and open up wider running lanes - instead what is happening is that the play call will go to fullback James Develin out of a two back set, with Gillislee remaining in to block.

All of this said and true, what will it take for the Patriots' offense to get untracked against a decent Jets' defense?

Simply, they are going to have to mix up the run and the pass, distributing the play calls in a manner that doesn't scream the obvious, because running the ball twenty times in a game by lumping the runs into a condensed time span does the offense no good. Against the Jets, an offense must establish the run to keep the play action relavent, which keeps their pass rushers on their heels...

...though every team the Jets have faced thus far in 2017 have done exactly that, yet there isn't a 300 yard passer among them - in fact, New York has held two of their opponents under 200 passing yards per game.

But the Jets haven't faced a quarterback like Brady yet - Oakland's Derek Carr is the only thrower the Jets have faced in five games who is anywhere close to a true franchise passer, and the Raiders torched New York for 45 points in a lopsided win - so that streak of holding opposing passers under 300 yards may be in jeopardy.

But then again, if the Patriots find a true mix of run and pass, they won't need a big day out of Brady, as the Jets have allowed opposing offenses to rush for more than 140 yards in four of their first five games - if they can't find that mix, however, New York could win their fourth straight by forcing the Patriots to become one-dimensional, abusing Brady along the way.

It's all in the hands of Josh McDaniels.

Cutler A Dolphin: Impact On New England Is Negligible

Ian Rappaport is reporting that the Miami Dolphins have reached a contract agreement with retired NFL quarterback Jay Cutler, a move that impacts the New England Patriots in a couple of different ways.

First, it means that Miami's regular starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill is done for the season, but the Dolphins organization is in full panic mode, thinking they are just going to waste all of the talent that they've acquired over the past couple of years by going into battle with Tannehill's long-time backup Matt Moore.

Moore is a capable backup, and could very well have led Miami to a playoff berth as he did down the stretch in 2016 before taking a savage beating in their wildcard game loss to Pittsburgh - but even in that game he was having his way with the Steeler's secondary before linebacker Bud Dupree likely concussed him with a helmet-to-helmet hit just before halftime.

Moore apparently passed the Dolphins' concussion protocol but wasn't the same after the hit, throwing a pick and losing two fumbles that doomed Miami's chances, a performance that prompted the league to issue a warning to the franchise that they need to get onboard with the protocol.

But despite the performance in the last four regular season games and the first half against Pittsburgh in the playoffs, the Dolphins opted to bring in Cutler, reasoning that he knows head coach Adam Gase's offense, an offense that plays to the strength of his skill set, that being boundary throws to taller receivers - of which Miami has several - seam throws to tight ends and dump-offs to backs in the flat.

It's a run-and-screen form of the Erhardt-Perkins offense that Gase encountered as a wide receiver's coach under Josh McDaniels in Denver and which he brought to Chicago as their offensive coordinator and now to Miami as their head coach, the advantage of which is to draw the safeties closer to the line of scrimmage to open up the mid-range options in a ball-control scheme that concentrates on moving the chains.

Under Gase as the Bears' offensive coordinator, Cutler enjoyed perhaps his finest statistical season as a professional quarterback, setting career highs for efficiency (completing 65% of his throws), and for quarterback rating (92.3), and cut his interceptions to a career-low average per pass attempt - but what matters for the Dolphins, as well as teams defending against them, is that Cutler is tailor made for the run-and-screen offense while Tannehill struggles in it.

In Cutler, Gase gets a guy that excels in the short-passing, ball-control offense and can make all of the throws required of an NFL quarterback and is deadly accurate on the short-to-intermediate throws, while Tannehill was often indecisive when going over the middle and frequently made off-target throws that put his receivers in harms way, not to mention that Tannehill was quick to pull the ball down and scramble instead of going through his progressions.

The second impact comes in the aforementioned Josh McDaniels factor, which provides Cutler with additional motivation to perform well against the Patriots.

When McDaniels was hired by the Broncos as their head coach in 2008, the first thing he did was to alienate Cutler by engaging in talks with Tampa Bay involving a three-team trade that also involved New England which, had it gone through, would have sent Cutler to the Buccaneers, Patriots' quarterback Matt Cassell to Denver and to the Patriots, a first round draft pick.

Meanwhile, the Detroit Lions had entered the fray and made an offer to the Broncos for Cutler and a similar offer the New England for Cassell - all deals fell off the table when Belichick traded Cassell to the Kansas City Chiefs, but while it was widely reported that the Bucs and Lions approached the Broncos and not the other way around, Cutler became incensed that McDaniels would even entertain the notion of a trade.

In a classic case of over-reaction, Cutler put his Denver home on the market and immediately requested a trade, saying that the relationship between he and the head coach was irreconcilable. Broncos' management accommodated Cutler's request and traded him to Chicago, the Bears giving Denver quarterback Kyle Orton and a couple of first-round draft picks.

The story on McDaniels became rather sordid after that contentious start, and he lasted only a year and a half in Denver.  Suffice to say that his feud with Cutler started the McDaniels tenure in Denver in the wrong way, and it spiraled into the toilet from there with claims of immaturity following scraps with his own players and those from other teams...

...while that same label followed the equally enigmatic Cutler, whose entitled behavior wore on his Bears' teammates to the point that when John Fox took over the team as the head coach in 2015, he struggled with a decision of whether to keep Cutler around, and caused former-Patriots' tight end Martellus Bennett to question Cutler's leadership skills.

So after a 2016 season in which Cutler played in just five games due to injury and indifference on the part of the Bears' coaching staff, he was released by Chicago, signing on with FOXSports as a color commentator, but has now put that career on hold to become Miami's starting quarterback.

But the true impact on New England is that the defense is built to take away the boundaries and force everything inside, so in theory the Dolphins should be easier to defend against as Cutler is more of a pocket passer compared to Tannehill, who pressured the Patriots' front seven with his scrambling ability and caused them to shadow him with a weakside linebacker or a strong safety...

...but with Cutler under center, the defense can concentrate on taking away the middle of the field and force him to the boundaries - and from what we know about him, Cutler will start trusting his arm strength more than the technique he developed on underneath routes, making a feast for New England's excellent secondary to pick off passes.

In short, it's hardly ever a positive thing for a team to lose their starting quarterback, but if Miami is getting the good Cutler who reads his progressions and takes care of the football, they can make the playoffs - but if they get the "entitled" Cutler, their season is finished.

That said, they could have gotten the same out of Matt Moore.

Reloading The Musket, Part 1 - Back To Fundamentals

"The many men, so beautiful!
And they all dead did lie;
And a thousand thousand slimy things lived on;
And so did I"

And, yes...

In Sam Coleridge's timeless horror classic "The Rime of the Ancient Mariner", a boy on his way to his brother's wedding was menaced by a crusty old mariner, whose cold, dead eye compelled the lad to cut short his journey and listen to the old man's horrible tale.

His soliloquy - a tale of disregard, penance and purely supernatural weirdness - told of the captain of a fine sailing vessel that became trapped in the ice of the south pole, becoming dislodged upon the presence of an albatross, giving rise to the superstition among sailors of the day that the mighty sea bird's presence was a sign of good fortune...

...a thought not lost on the captain, as he slew the bird with a crossbow in an effort to dispel the superstition - eventually bringing ruin to his crew of 200 and to his ship when "Death" and his beautiful sidekick "Life in Death" rolled the bones to determine their fate - Death taking the consolation prize of the aforementioned crew while the Specter-woman took charge of the captain, not allowing the hard-hearted mariner to escape the horror through death, instead forcing him to pay penance for senselessly murdering one of God's creatures.

The tale has been used as a metaphor to describe the peril that folks will rightly encounter for counting on blind luck, as although the sailors where aghast at the captains actions, they began to accept them the longer the ship encountered no ill - but once their fortunes started to turn, they tied the dead bird around the captain's neck and rejected him as the harbinger of their demise on the open sea.

Thus the genesis of the metaphor of one who bears a particular guilt as having an albatross around his neck, a natural response by the human element to assign blame when things go sideways, when seeking a scapegoat is easier than fessing up to the truth - an axiom that still holds true today in every walk of life, even in football.

When the New England Patriots' 2015 season ended on a balmy January afternoon in Denver, the blame game amongst media and fans immediately exploded on social media, the masses looking for a scapegoat in which to hang an albatross around his neck.

Initially it was on the neck of All Pro kicker Stephen Gostkowski for missing an extra point early in the game which, as it turns out, forced the Patriots to try for a two-point conversion to tie the game late, which failed miserably. Then it was the offensive line for allowing quarterback Tom Brady to get nailed more times than a cougar at a bachelor party...

....continuing on to Brandon LaFell falling out of favor with Brady, running back James White supposedly giving up on two deep sideline throws and then finally on Brady himself for not rising to the occasion as he had so many times in the past.

But the real blame for the Patriots missing their opportunity to defend their championship against the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl 50 goes to the captain of the vessel, the ancient mariner and his boatswains - not for shooting a crossbow arrow through the heart of an albatross, but for not trusting their crew to do what needed to be done to keep the ship afloat.

For years, the Patriots have prided themselves on being one of the most fundamentally sound teams in the National Football League, both on the field of battle and on the sidelines - but when the injuries started to mount, in particular a torn ACL for scatback Dion Lewis and a foot injury to wide receiver Julian Edelman in successive weeks, panic seemed to dictate the decision making of the coaching staff.

The injury downfall actually began in a week five matchup with Dallas, when left tackle Nate Solder tore a biceps muscle and the Patriots were forced to face the fact that their two swing tackles, Marcus Cannon and Cam Fleming, were not suited for protecting quarterback Tom Brady's blind side against speed rushers - which in turn forced them to break up the continuity on the rest of the line by switching right tackle Sebastian Vollmer from his right tackle spot to the left...

...making the strong side a turnstile that ultimately turned Brady into a punching bag and eventually - along with injuries to running backs Lewis and LeGarrette Blount - made the running game obsolete, with a little help from the play calling that handcuffed the offense in such a way that the Patriots were forced to play catch-up...

...falling short in four of their final six games of the regular season and again in the AFC Championship game, despite the fact that the Patriots defense was playing a superb brand of football that kept the team in each game right up to the bitter end.

The defense, as a matter of fact, was a model of consistency all season long, surrendering just under 18 points per game, and only 16 points per game in the eight game stretch to end the season - plenty good enough for Brady and his weapons, limited as they were at times, to overcome - and in the first 10 games, that held true.

Using the Edelman injury against the New York Giants as a base, the Patriots were scoring at a clip of 29 points per game before that point, but in the nine games following the injury and including the playoffs, the Patriots offense scored an abysmal 19 points per game while seeing their total yardage dip from 412 yards per game to 317...

In addition, the offense was scoring on nearly 60% of its possessions and punted just 29 times in 105 total possessions, and then only 13 times went three-and-out before the Edelman injury - but after, the Patriots offense became so conservative that they scored only three times out of every 10 possessions, punted 54 times and went three-and-out on half of those.

Now, some may look at this as the result of injury and that offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels had no choice but to cut the play book down to bare bones, but conventional wisdom dictates that sticking with fundamental football and keeping the playbook open to interpretation by Brady would have been the best bet.

The injury to Solder shouldn't have been as disabling as it was, nor should have the injury to Lewis, nor to Edelman or Blount, because there were other options available on individual circumstance - and that will be discussed in future articles, but the fact remains that the last nine games didn't resemble the Patriots under Belichick at all, as ill-advised special teams gaffes and the aforementioned ultra-conservative game plans gave advantage after advantage to their foes.

*************************************

When he first set sail on his dynastic run with the New England Patriots 17 years ago, Patriots' head ball coach Bill Belichick hired an experienced crew that had been through rough seas and been to the top of the world and back again, taking home riches beyond the dreams of their adoring fans - but with success comes advancement and attrition, and slowly but surely his top boatswains abandoned ship to become masters of their own vessels...

...leaving him with an essentially green crew - inexperienced but vibrant and willing, and with Belichick's guidance, the Patriots reached the top several more times, but failing to bring home the bounty until very recently - and only then because his defenders rose to occasion and fought off the aggressors, as his offense time and again wilted in the face of battle.

Belichick is a defensive genius, but has also been blessed with having the perfect quarterback to run his complicated offensive scheme since the inception of his tenure and, initially, the perfect people to implement his schemes in offensive coordinator Charlie Weis and defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel - but once they had formed together to win three championships in four seasons, Weis and Crennel became hot commodities.

Belichick really hasn't had a sideline confidant since those two left, which means that his genius-inspired overthinking of issues have had no sounding board to balance on - which has been an issue.

You see, Weiss was old school and he knew that championship football meant balance on offense. For example, in the four years in which three titles were claimed by the Patriots, Weis had the offense running pretty much at a 50/50 clip between the rush and the pass - utilizing first Antowain Smith and then Corey Dillon as power backs, and Belichick even managed to keep the offense somewhat balanced in the two years following Weis' departure.

But in 2006, he turned the offense over to a scrappy, emotional young firepisser named Josh McDaniels, who had a grand total of two years coaching experience as the quarterbacks coach under Belichick, holding positions with the team on the defensive side of the ball for three years previous to that.

But Belichick kept a firm thumb on his young coordinator in the three years he held onto the position.

In 2006, the two were able to keep balance on the field as Dillon and rookie Laurence Maroney provided sort of a Thunder-Lightning approach in contrast to Brady's limited weaponry in the pass catching corps, and the team made it to the AFC Championship game.

The following year, Belichick brought in two legitimate weapons on the outside in receivers Randy Moss and Wes Welker, so it was understandable that together with Dante Stallworth and Jabar Gaffney that the offense would be skewed to the passing game more than it would have been normally - and the results were akin to a high-flying trapeze act, with the Patriots easily setting record after record...

...but in each of those two seasons, McDaniels' youth and inexperience arose in the most conspicuous of spots, as the offense sputtered in the second half of the 2006 AFC title game as a disturbing trend of abandoning the running game emerged, the Patriots failing to generate a running game to protect a 21-6 halftime lead, instead passing 21 times and rushing just five despite the fact that his running game had gained 90 yards in the first half.

New England lost that game to the Colts, but the new-look, high-wire offense that McDaniels took control of the following season looked to be a juggernaut that could only stop themselves - and in the Super Bowl against the New York Giants, they did just that.

In what turned into a defensive struggle, New England took a 7-3 lead into the second half, and instead of trying to maintain a balance to offset the pass rush being thrown at Patriots quarterback Tom Brady by running the ball, the onus was placed squarely on Brady who threw 36 times in the second half and was sacked five times overall, while only six rushing plays were called.

2008 was a wash when Brady was injured early in the first game, and after the season the Denver Broncos offered McDaniels its vacant head coaching position - which was an unmitigated disaster for reasons that offer a little insight as to what compounds the issue for the Patriots.

There is little sense in rehashing what happened to McDaniels in Denver, other than to chalk it all up to inexperience and the resultant lack of maturity - something that still dogs him to this day.

This may seem an unnecessarily harsh indictment of an offensive coordinator considered by many experts to be the top head coaching prospect still on the market, who universally and resoundingly credited him for keeping the Patriots' ship afloat in the wake of the injuries...

...and maybe it is, but if that were the case, how is it that the Patriots routinely were able to find their offensive stride late in games when in desperation mode, switching from the conservative three-and-out entity that couldn't stay on the field for any length of time to give the defense their proper rest, to the four-minute, Patriot-like offense that we are used to seeing...

...an offense that produced comebacks in games against Denver, Philadelphia, the Jets and then the Broncos again in the AFC title games, leaving one to wonder where this exciting brand of play calling had been the entire game up until that point. Of course, the Patriots lost all of those games.

The only explanation there can be is that the staff didn't trust their depth to get the job done, then threw caution to the wind late in games because they simply had no other choice, and the worst that could happen is that they could lose anyway.

That is not Patriots' football.

Ultimately, what happens on the football field lies in the hands of Belichick, so 2015 is his albatross to bear - and just as the ancient mariner made good on his penance and lived to tell the tale, Belichick has the same opportunity, and all he has to do is to revisit the AFC Championship game loss to gain a clear understanding of what needs to happen for his own redemption.

In articles subsequent to this one, we will take a look at how each positional grouping stands before the start of free agency, and what needs to happen to ensure that what happened in the latter part of 2015 never rears its ugly head again.

Next: Part 2, Overall Defensive philosophy and how it holds the entire team together.