Patriots On Cusp Of Rebuilding, Or Will Belichick Somehow Reload With Slim Cap?

Ah, that devil salary cap.

Have the New England Patriots reached a point that they are entering a rebuilding mode?

Not quite yet, as you are about to read, but with many contracts ready to expire in the next couple of years, there is an urgency to find depth that will be able to ascend to starting positions as natural turnover occurs among aging players.

One such instance involves quarterback Tom Brady, whose insistence on playing well into his 40's destroyed what seemed to be the perfect succession plan at the position, as the Patriots were forced to unload backup Jimmy Garoppolo at the trade deadline - and while Brady did indeed play some of the best ball of his career in 2017, he also has shown some wear and a propensity for starting games slowly, needing a build up to return to form.

Will the Patriots have the cap room to bring back Amendola?

This is not to say that Brady is finished, as even a 41-something gunslinger at 80% of his former self is still better than anything else the National Football League can offer up, but having to resort to dealing off an obviously talented heir to the Patriots' quarterback position puts the team in a spot that they had covered, but now must spend time, effort and draft capital to realize once again.

Another position with some ambiguity to it is at tight end, where Rob Gronkowski claims that he's considering retirement, reportedly to go into acting or signing a contract to join the WWE as a professional wrestler - or both.

Even the thought of doing so sends chills down the spine of the most ardent fan, as Gronkowski opting out of his contract would leave the Patriots with an impossible hole to fill at the position as well as leaving their salary cap crippled with a $4 million dead money hit.

Speaking of the salary cap, the current numbers reflect that New England has $13,712,155 in cap space which rolls over into 2018 and should be accompanied by an $8 million increase at the start of the league year in mid-March, which means that they are not necessarily in dire straights so far as cap space is concerned, but they will still have to be creative to field a roster that will be competitive.

The problem is that the Patriots have slowly become top heavy in their cap, with the top six contracts on the roster - consisting of Brady, Stephon Gilmore, Devin McCourty, Gronkowski, Dont'a Hightower and Brandin Cooks - accounting for over 41% of the total cap space available, and if that is extended out to the top ten contracts, it absorbs nearly 55% of the cap, meaning that in accordance with the rule of 51, only 45% of the available money goes to the other 41 players on the roster.

This is a huge departure from years past when Belichick was able to build rosters with more balance to them, giving him the ability to attract the mid-level free agents that populated championship team after championship team.

It isn't that way any longer, so now Belichick will be forced to depart with some of his veteran players at other positions, not just to be able to afford to bring in free agents, but to keep his own proven players who are set to enter free agency in March - players that include the likes of left tackle Nate Solder, wide receiver Danny Amendola and running back Dion Lewis.

Fortunately, Belichick has some contracts on the board that can come off in favor of cap space if need be:

Martellus Bennett: $6,187,500 cap number, no dead money penalty. Bennett's 2018 contract becomes guaranteed if New England picks up his $2 million option before the start of the league year, and when gauged with talk of his retirement to pursue other projects, that makes his release a no-brainer - unless, that is, Gronkowski is serious about his own retirement, then Bennett becomes more valuable to the team than his cap number indicates.

Dwayne Allen: $5,000,000 cap number, no dead money penalty. Allen was invisible as a receiving threat in 2017, as his value to the team came as an inline blocker - which is a skill set that is plentiful on the team already, as swing tackles Can Fleming and LaAdrian Waddle have proven to be adept additions to the line in cases where six linemen are needed.

Alan Branch: $4,550,000 cap number, $1 million dead money penalty. Branch's production declined precipitously in 2018 as he entered camp out of shape and drew the ire of Belichick on more than one occasion. His time missed due to disciplinary procedure left New England without an experienced run-stopper on the line, but the Patriots do have options in the form of Vincent Valentine and Adam Butler, the former of which progressed to starter quality during the 2017 season.

Shea McClellin: $3,183,334 cap number, $833,334 dead money penalty. The former first round draft pick of the Bears lent some impact in 2016, but spent all of 2017 on the IR with a concussion and the resultant post-concussion syndrome. With a serious history of concussions and missing a full season with a serious one, the Patriots may find themselves in a spot to move on from a young, promising linebacker.

David Harris: $2,750,000 cap number, $675,000 dead money penalty. Unless they want Harris as a sideline cheerleader and a locker room presence, he's most likely gone. He played sparingly as one of the most curious usages of free agent talent in quite a few years.

Mike Gillislee: $2,181,250 cap number, no dead money penalty. This one is tough to figure out, as Gillislee did very well in Buffalo as a complimentary piece to Shady McCoy, but didn't show the burst and yards after contact, nor the receiving skill, that Belichick requires of his backs. That said, his fate probably rests on what Belichick decides to do with pending free agents Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead.

Phillip Dorsett: $1,544,373 cap Number, no dead money penalty. Dorsett was seldom used in the Patriots' part-time vertical scheme despite possessing deadly speed. He is an expendable contract with the likes of Cooks already on the roster and Julian Edelman slated to make his return.

Kenny Britt: $1,453,225 cap number, no dead money penalty. See above, Britt was brought in as insurance against Chris Hogan's protracted absence due to injury.

Jordan Richards: $1,180,947 cap number, $239,827 dead money penalty. If Belichick holds true to form, Richards' performance in the Super Bowl will be his last straw. He plays like a sluggish linebacker and has no feel or intuition for where the ball is going as a safety. Belichick got rid of Kyle Arrington under similar circumstances.

Assuming that the offseason sees these contracts come off the board, the Patriots would stand to gain just over $25 million in cap relief, which when married to their current cap rollover and the projected cap increase from the league of $8 million, the Patriots would have a grand total of nearly $47 million to work with in free agency.

Unfortunately, they have some contract situations that figure to chisel away at that number.

Most pressing would be the status of Solder, who has been protecting Brady's blindside for seven years, but with a sometimes erratic style that sees him stoning some of the best defensive ends in the game one week then getting jobbed by ordinary ends the next. Injuries and health issues have plagued him his entire career, which is probably why the Patriots spent third round draft capital on Troy's Antonio Garcia last season, but saw Garcia spend his entire rookie campaign on the non-football injury list with an unknown ailment.

Whether or not Garcia can return to full strength after losing a reported 40 pounds during his fight with whatever bug he contracted may be the deciding factor as to whether New England offers Solder a free agent contract - but with experienced left tackles being at a premium in the league, the Patriots are going to have a fight on their hands to retain him at a number that won't break the bank, as he should be able to rake in $12 million a year on the open market.

Lewis is another pressing contract. He reportedly wants $6 million per season over three years with at least $10 million guaranteed, but as has been written, Lewis' injury history reads like a Mary Shelley novel and he has but one full injury-free year on his resume. If other teams take that into consideration and offers him one-year "prove it" deals, it may play into New England's hands as they would most likely be willing to pony up a James White-style deal for $4 to $5 million a year with a guarantee for performance only.

Lastly, Danny Amendola has earned a spot on this roster, but at age 32 and with a history of both injury and discounted contract moves, the Patriot would likely only offer him a two-year deal worth around what is listed above for Lewis.

There are other circumstances to consider, mostly revolving around a talented 2015 rookie class coming up for extension beyond 2018, but those will be handled individually as this series continues.

But given the scenarios above with Solder, Lewis and Amendola being given respective contracts, that would lower the cap space that Belichck has to work with to around $30 million, with forethought to draft picks, which will eat up around $4 million this year, and priority to the aforementioned 2015 rookie class coming up for contracts, don't expect Belichick to dole out a lot of money in open free agency.

After all, he doesn't really have to, as his core of players came within a few bad play calls of winning a sixth Lombardi Trophy a few weeks ago - so it would be good business to take care of his own, make sure he has an impact draft and use free agency as a last resort.