The beginning of the Patriots' dynasty saw general manager Bill Belichick employ 6' 2", 235 pound Antowain Smith as his lead back for his first two title winners and the the 6' 1", 230 pound Corey Dillon to complete the run of three championships in four years - and more recently, 6' 0", 250 pound LeGarrette Blount did the heavy lifting as New England took home two more trophies in the span of three seasons.
In between, the Patriots lost two Super Bowls to the New York Giants utilizing first the 5' 11", 210 pound Laurence Maroney and then undrafted free agent, 5' 10", 215 pound BenJarvis Green-Ellis, then just recently lost their fifth Super Bowl with 5' 8", 195 pound Dion Lewis toting the rock.
But that doesn't mean that New England should let let Lewis walk away in free agency - quite to the contrary, in fact.
Lewis is a triple threat on offense, and not just in the context of doing enough to make defenses account for him - rather - in the context of doing everything so well that the defenses have to game plan for him. It's a discernible difference that draws a line between being a serviceable by-committee back, which is what New England features in their high-flying offenses, and a true feed-bag lead back.
But Lewis' body of work is a relatively short sampling size and his injury history reads like a Mary Shelley novel, but when he is on the field he makes the Patriots a better team, so Belichick is going to have to weigh the good against the bad and try to explain things the way that they are to Lewis, who will probably find a couple of running back-needy teams willing to pay him exponentially more that the Patriots can or will.
In thirty games with New England, Lewis has averaged 4.8 yards per carry across 293 attempts, which adds up to 1,413 yards on the ground, most of the production coming last season when Lewis was healthy for all 16 games, the only time in his career that has been true, with Belichick easing him into action by playing him sparingly in the first four games of the season...
...then unleashing him on the league in week five. Including the playoffs Lewis had a premium stat line of 1,031 yards on just 213 carries, an average of 4.85 yards per carry - finishing the season tenth in yards, 17th in attempts and 5th in average.
But he finished the season ranked first in yards gained after contact (3.17), forced missed tackles (49) and in Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement (271), as listed by our friends at Football Outsiders. DYAR is a simple statistic that speaks volumes as to a back's value to his team's offense by measuring how much total yardage would be missing from said offense if that back had to replaced due to injury or illness.
It's sort of like what the NFL MVP award is supposed to be about (but seldom is).
Lewis didn't just earn top dog on that list, he blew the other competitors right off the spreadsheet and earned Pro Football Focus' top elusive rating despite not logging any significant playing time until a quarter of the way through the season. All of these things factored in, the Patriots are better off paying a known quantity that already knows the system than letting him walk and initiating an unknown quantity.
Many will say that Belichick doesn't value running backs, but nothing could be farther from the truth. As a whole, Belichick values running backs far more than what would be typical around the league - but the more versatile the back is, the more Belichick values him.
Hell, look at the extension he gave James White last offseason - four years at $4 million per, plus signing and roster bonuses. That might not seem like much, but it's proper compensation for a good passing back who works primarily as a change-of-pace option. He gave Rex Burkhead $3.15 million on a "show me" deal and is still locked into Mike Gillislee for another season at slightly less than that, though he is probably finished in New England.
Burkhead could very well be an every down back, but he's also slated for free agency which leaves White and Gillislee as the backs on the roster at present, which doesn't bode well for the group in 2018 unless Lewis and/or Burkhead are re-signed.
The story that unsubstantiated rumors lathered all over the Boston media tell us, Lewis is seeking a three year deal at $18 million, with at least $10 million of that guaranteed - so with the Patriots' salary cap floating right near $14 million for 2018, chopping six million off of that would severely handicap them for signing any free agents at all, as approximately $4 million will also be eaten up by incoming draft picks.
There are several roads the Patriots can take to clear cap space if they need to - and it appears that they probably should - but that is for another time and another blog entry. What matters in the here and now is that if the Patriots allow Lewis to get away, it could end up costing them far more than just money.
Lewis is Rotoworld's second-ranked running back on the free agent market - behind only Pittsburgh's Le'Veon Bell - and could command a lot more than he's asking for, meaning that his rumored asking price is probably what he would consider a hometown discount for the Patriots, which would put him in Marshawn Lynch territory so far as average salary goes...
...which is slightly more than what impending Broncos' free agent C.J. Anderson makes on his current deal with Denver, who is looking to move on in an effort to free up some cap space.
Anderson is perhaps the best free agent fit for New England should Lewis move on, but the savings in salary is negligible and when you combine that with both the investment the Patriots have already made in Lewis and his intimate knowledge of the New England system, it just doesn't make sense to let the 27-year-old walk.
However, if he does leave, the Patriots do have options in the draft, but that too is a step down in that there is no way to know how quickly a rookie coming out of college will perform on the professional stage, and certainly he won't be counted on to produce numbers ever close to what Lewis has in his time in Foxborough.
The "can't miss" list of running backs that would satisfy my friend's desire for a bigger bell cow running back through the draft doesn't exist, as all of the top backs are more compact in build and are more elusive than powerful - even the top back in the draft, Penn State's Saquon Barkley, though Barkley is a rare talent but will never fall to the Patriots, who select at 31.
The drop off in talent between Barkley and the rest of the pack is fairly significant, but LSU's Derrius Guice is a frantic, duck-footed runner in the mold of Marshawn Lynch whose calling card is gaining yards after contact, but doesn't check the box on receiving out of the backfield and his blitz pickup isn't his strongest asset.
Pass protection isn't an issue for Georgia's Sony Michel, but has banana peels for hands and isn't reliable in the pattern. More Patriots-like prospects exist in the second day realm, featuring Auburn's Kerryon Johnson and San Diego State's Rashaad Penny.
Johnson checks all the boxes as far as skill set - including blitz pickup and soft hands in the pattern - but is a little lean at 6' 0" and 215 pounds and the experts are concerned that his linear frame and upright running style will impact his durability - while Penny would give New England everything that Johnson would, but with a more compact and burly frame and an explosion out of first contact to keep plays alive.
Penny should be available with New England's first pick in the second round, but perhaps not their original pick towards the end of the round - but that's where they would likely find bigger backs like Oregon's Royce Freeman, who might represent the best value in the draft so far as running back are concerned.
At 6' 0" and 234 pounds, Freeman is a hybrid of what New England likes from their backs. He is a powerful inside runner with good awareness of cutback lanes from playing behind a zone blocking scheme and was often too much for a safety or outside linebacker to bring down on the outside - he's decent in pass pro and is adept at the screen game and is a polished route runner to the flat.
Freeman is projected to be a third selection, though a good showing at the combine could put him on maps earlier in the second round. If there is a decent prospect in the later rounds or even in undrafted free agency, it comes in the form of the 6' 1", 230 pound running mate of Giuce's at LSU, Darrel Williams, who is a short-yardage and third down specialist who could give the Patriots options, particularly in the red zone.
So with the options in free agency and the draft not as overwhelming as one would hope, it makes sense to retain Lewis by whatever means necessary. Burkhead may be an option to take over Lewis' workload, but thus far in his Patriots' career has proven fragile. Clearly there are obstacles to overcome if the Patriots wish to have a productive running game...
...but the offense depends on the backs to handle the ball up to seventy percent of the time in any given game plan, they can't just leave things to chance - they must solidify the backfield or risk making the offense one-dimensional - which is never a good thing.
Ballage out of ASU could be the sleeper RB of the draft and fits the big back mold
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