Showing posts with label 2016 NFL Draft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2016 NFL Draft. Show all posts

Wednesday, May 18, 2016

Big Nickle Dictates Patriots' Defensive Additions

Patriots' fans should get used to this sight, as Cyrus Jones has shut-down potential
The Big Nickle defense seems relatively new to most casual football fans, but in reality it is an old-school approach to defending today's offensive evolution.

The recent trend in the NFL is for teams to go big, either with tall wideouts, uber-athletic tight ends, or both, which has prompted a few different defensive approaches, from employing taller corners to offset the size advantage of the receivers to assigning hybrid "nickle"linebackers to tight ends in order to make up ground in the size-speed ratio that today's tight end typically enjoys.

The Big Nickle, however, eschews modern thinking and embraces the fundamentalist thinking of the early game, where the idea was to fuse athleticism with violent intent.

Which rubs against the grain of the kinder, gentler brand of football that the NFL promotes with their ever-restrictive rules against defenses in the passing game, rewarding teams with high-flying passing attacks and punishes defensive backs when they try to "climb the ladder" to make a play on the football in the air, against receivers that are 4-to-6 inches taller than the average cornerback.

The reason for the clearly biased-against-the-defense set of rules is to make the game "exciting" and "more palatable" to the casual fan.  After all, in a purely general aesthetic sense, what could be more exciting than a quarterback launching a ball 50 yards down the field to a lithe and speedy receiver, who hauls it in and zips cleanly into the end zone?

To football purists, however, the idea of a defender being essentially handcuffed by the rules into being little more than a rubber-necking bystander doesn't sit well - but by the same token, if the same team doesn't take advantage of the rules on the offensive side of the ball, their success rate - as well as their win-loss record - suffers.

Of course, there are teams that take that advantage to a new, unethical level.  

The "Flacco-Harbaugh Gambit" is the most well-known of these tactics, wherein Baltimore Ravens coach John Harbaugh will call for a deep pass play, tasking quarterback Joe Flacco to loft a ball just short of where a defensive back would expect it to be, goading him into making a play for the ball while at the same time engaging in unintentional contact with the receiver for the express purpose of gaining large chunks of yardage by way of a pass interference penalty called on the corner.

To combat this, many teams have taken the stance defensively that it is better to not allow a receiver free release into his pattern in the first place.

Built into the debilitating rules is a single five-yard buffer, a razor thin zone in which defensive backs can make heavy contact with the receiver coming off of the line of scrimmage to try and disrupt the timing in a timing-based passing attack, and to keep lid-popping speedsters from tearing the top off of a defense in a vertical offense.

It is known as a five-yard "mugging zone", which frequently features the equivalent of an old fashioned street brawl, complete with haymakers, grappling and outright fist fights - and this is what Bill Belichick bases his nickle defensive package after, which explains his seeming obsession with small, gritty corners...

...and with hybrid safeties, the two combined forming the base for Belichick's version of the Big Nickle, his New England Patriots one of the few teams - if not the only team - in the NFL to be able to do it right.

The Big Nickle is actually the brain-child of former Philadelphia Eagles' defensive coach Jerry Williams who, in 1961, was desperate to stop a talented Chicago Bears rookie tight end named Mike Ditka, who was ripping opposing defenses a new one every time he stepped on the field due to his size-speed ratio and glass-chewing toughness.

Williams figured that to stop Ditka  - who at 6' 3", 230 pounds had the size advantage over most defensive backs and the speed and agility advantage over most linebackers - he had to have a player who was a cross between the two and found that in rookie safety Irv Cross.

At 6' 2" and 200 pounds, Cross had requisite size for the task and with speed believed to have been in the 4.4 range, the requisite speed - even so, the rookie would have to wait until late in the first quarter between the teams in their week eight matchup.  Ditka had just taken a short Billy Wade pass seventy-six yards for a touchdown to give the Bears a 7-3 lead over the defending World Champion Eagles...

...and after inserting Cross to shadow Ditka, the beastly tight end was shut down for the rest of the afternoon as the Eagles posted a big 16-14 win.  Teams around the league stood up and took notice, many future opponents aligning their games plans as the Eagles had, resulting in a 1-4 slide to drop the Bears out of playoff contention.

So impressed by the scheme was an assistant on the Bears' sideline, future Washington Redskins' legend George Allen, that the Big Nickle became a base defense for his Championship teams, but a more modern example of the alignment came via defensive wizard Fritz Shurmur who, while with the Cardinals in 1992, was forced to play a third safety when he ran out of linebackers, thanks to a rash of injuries.

The alignment followed him to Green Bay, where a few seasons later he used it to defeat the Bill Parcells-led Patriots team in Super Bowl 31.

Today, the Big Nickle tradition is carried on by another defensive genius in Belichick, though his vision for the alignment is inspired by the aforementioned debilitating rule changes rather than just focusing on stopping one extraordinary athlete or simply out of desperation - his plan has been meticulously groomed over the past four seasons, and last year it came to full fruition.

The 4-2-5 Big Nickle is made possible by a stable of specially skilled safeties that Belichick has been collecting via high draft capital for years, combined with aggressive corner play and the overall skill of his top two linebackers - which explains his offseason moves in free agency and his off-the-beaten-path draft board.

Up front, the alignment relies on defensive tackles who are capable of resetting the line of scrimmage two yards deep in the opponents backfield while occupying more than one offensive lineman, while the defensive ends are alert and instinctive, with the ability to both pressure the quarterback and set the edge in the running game.

In theory - as well as practical application - the tackle occupying blockers and the ends setting the edge accomplish two things: first, a double team on the nose or on a disruptive three tech means that a gap exists somewhere for a linebacker or safety to shoot through and secondly, setting the edge forces a wide play back to the inside, where the aforementioned shooting linebacker or safety is waiting.

In this system, pressuring the quarterback is nearly as good as a sack, because with the aggressiveness of the corners already detouring the receivers' routes, the quarterback may not have enough time to find his second or third reads before having to abandon the pocket, and pressure up the middle limits the space and opposing quarterback has to step into a throw.

That was the idea behind drafting Nebraska tackle Vincent Valentine, a player with a rap concerning not playing to his potential - and perhaps some of that chatter is true, though a high ankle sprain that he labored with throughout 2015 could have been a contributing factor. In any case, the highlight films on him are compelling enough to consider him a good fit in the Patriots' interior defense, especially given that the opposing offensive line has bigger fish to fry in regards to the Patriots' defensive line.

At the nose is All Rookie team member Malcom Brown, who will be part of an interior rotation with Terrence Knighton, Alan Branch, free agent pick up Markus Kuhn, so Valentine won't have to contribute immediately, nor carry the load - which is fortunate because when he's fresh, he's a difference maker with his explosiveness off the ball. An ideal scenario for the third-round selection would be as a designated pocket penetrator late in games.

But while no one is expecting Valentine to jump right in and take anyone's job away from them, the hope is that second round pick Cyrus Jones ascends the depth chart at cornerback in rapid-fire fashion.

Nicknamed "Clamp Clampington", the Patriots hope he lives up to that restrictive name and clamps down on opposing receivers off the snap - you know, like a real clamp, or as the widely accepted definition suggests, "Holds objects tightly together to prevent movement of separation through the application of inward pressure."

Jones is an aggressive hand fighter who is perfect for the mugging-style press coverage the Patriots employ in the big nickle, and who takes everything as a slight on him, so he has a perpetual chip always balanced on his shoulder - and while some take him for a third corner in the slot, Jones' best destiny is on the outside, where he has become something of an expert at pinning receivers against the sideline and using his ridiculous ball skills to deny receiver after receiver.

"They (the quarterbacks) look at him like, 'Ok, I'm gonna throw on him,'" fellow Crimson Tide corner Maurice Smith said of Jones recently, "and then he turns around and gets a pick - then that side of the field is shut down the rest of the game."

Some would say that Jones has an uphill battle for playing time, what with Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan forming a pair of solid - if unspectacular - corners, but the smart money has Jones winning the number two in camp, relegating Ryan to the slot, where he has shown a knack for huge plays.

In Belichick's defense, one will see the slot manned by either a corner or by a safety, but with the selection of Kamu Grugier-Hill in the sixth round out of Eastern Illinois, there is every possibility that the slot could be manned by a weakside linebacker in certain packages.

Said to be on the "weak" side because he typically lines up on the opposite side of the field as the opposing tight end, a weakside linebacker is responsible for keeping track of the running back, picking him up in coverage if curling into the pattern...

...while keying on setting the edge and on lateral pursuit should the back take a handoff, pitch or screen pass - which is exactly what Grugier-Hill excels at.

Film of the 6' 2', 215 pounder reveals a stunning similarity to 2015 draft selection Brandon King. Identical in size, both are lighting quick on the accelerator, demonstrating elite closing speed and arriving at their destination with ill intent. Both played the "Star" linebacker position in college - which is the Big Nickle in the pros.

The only difference between the two as far as playing style is that Grugier-Hill comes in a far more polished product and has a chance to provide immediate depth to a unit in desperate need of it and should join King as a special teams' terror.

The problem is - and the reason why Grugier-Hill wasn't a higher round draft consideration - is his weight, or lack thereof - but he' is every bit his draft profile, which uses phases such as "Ridiculous range", "Superior chase speed and burst to the ball carrier" and "has burst to become a dangerous blitzer."

Even though he was drafted as an outside linebacker, many believe a switch to strong safety and the big nickle is where he's headed - but, really, what is the difference between a strong safety and a weakside cover linebacker?

In today's NFL, the gap between the two is virtually non-existent.







Wednesday, May 4, 2016

Patriots Stand Pat On Running Backs In Draft, But Good Core Remains

Could the New England Patriots actually go into the 2017 season with, essentially, the same cast of running backs that produced a dismal 1404 rushing yards last season?

That 1404 rushing yards was good - or bad, depending on your dialect - for thirtieth out of thirty-two teams, but if it weren't for injuries, the Patriots' rushing numbers would certainly be a lot higher than what it was - and advanced statistics show that they weren't as bad as the initial numbers would seem to indicate.

Sparked by the video game-like elusiveness of passing back Dion Lewis and the sluggish but powerful style of the brutish LeGarrette Blount as a part-time bell-cow, the Patriots had the makings of a decent rushing game - not top of the league type stuff by any means, but enough to keep balance in the attack and have confidence closing out games.

In fact, through the first five games of the season, Lewis and Blount had amassed 486 yards on the ground, with Lewis contributing another 292 through the air as a live-wire dual threat like the franchise hadn't seen in over a decade. Lewis was held out of a week seven matchup with the Jets and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels subsequently abandoned the running game, but still managed enough offense for a narrow win...

...but after a fantastic game the following week against Miami (5 carries for 19 yards and six catches for 96), Lewis saw his season end the next week against Washington, tearing his ACL.

That was the beginning of the end for the Patriots' offense.

The following week, wide receiver Julian Edelman suffered a broken metatarsal in his left foot, the second hit in as many weeks to the Patriots' passing attack - and thus began a cruel string of injuries that left the "skill" positions smoldering ruins.

With Lewis gone for the season and Edelman on the shelf until the playoffs, receiver Danny Amendola was the next to have a seat, suffering a knee sprain the following week against the Bills, then tight end Rob Gronkowski went down the week after that in Denver - then the injury bug took a week off before returning with a vengeance, taking lead back Blount for the season with a bum hip.

That's five core "skill position" players going down in the space of six weeks, reducing the New England offense to a literal shell of itself.  So it should come as no surprise that the Patriots took a nose-dive, losing four of the final six games, Blount's injury the final straw to an offense that generated only 15 points per game down the stretch after he went down.

Edelman and Gronkowski were back for the playoffs and provided some plays, but with the running game in tatters, McDaniels crew could manage only 45 points in the playoffs as he again abandoned the ground game, this time because there just wasn't anything left to work with but untested depth and a relic free agent who hadn't seen action in nearly a year.

Attempting to run the ball just seven times in a divisional round win over Kansas City and fourteen in a loss to Denver in the AFC Championship game is testament to McDaniels' lack of confidence in both what was left of his running game, as well as his completely overwhelmed offensive line.

In short, the Patriots' offensive woes down the stretch and in the playoffs were not a matter of talent, nor lack thereof, it was simply a matter of one devastating injury after another sapping the explosiveness from the offense, leaving quarterback Tom Brady a handful of unproven depth players who, try as they might, were no match for any defense.

The only way that the Patriots could have survived that onslaught of injuries was for their depth to have performed better than they did overall, though by the time Blount was lost for the season, there wasn't a team in the NFL that was scared of the Patriots' offense, because once any semblance of a running game disappeared, all anyone had to to do was load up the pass rush to come after Brady...

...and even when Gronkowski was back, the opposition doubled him up and left the pass catching depth single covered and concentrated on getting to Brady before he had a chance to make his reads.

Many blamed the offensive line for the subsequent beatings that Brady took, but the fact of the matter is that they were overwhelmed by defenses that knew the Patriots couldn't run the ball with any authority, nor could they field a healthy passing catching corps - it was Brady behind an offensive line trying to hold back a tsunami, and the result was the worst eight game stretch in Belichick's 15 year tenure.

And still, Brady, Belichick and the Patriots came within two points of going to the Super Bowl.

Now, had the injury bug started biting any earlier than it did, New England may not have even made the playoffs - so with a harsh lesson learned, why did the Patriots not select a young bell-cow running back in the 2016 Draft?

Many Patriots' fans are either scratching or shaking their heads over this one, and Belichick's response to being questioned about not drafting a back, "You can't control what you can't control", left many with more questions than they had before.

Did that mean he had a back in mind and he was taken before he could fall to number 60 overall, where the Patriots would be making their first pick, or is he referring to the fact that his first rounder was taken away by the league and he was left without a reasonable opportunity to get the back he wanted, or was he just blowing off the reporter?

Probably, it is a combination of all of the above, but even that doesn't change the fact that Belichick added only passing back Donald Brown to the kennel in free agency - a kennel that still includes Blount and Lewis, and also James White, Brandon Bolden, Tyler Gaffney and Joey Iosefa - then signed only former running back-turned-wide receiver D.J. Foster out of Arizona State as a priority free agent after he went undrafted.

Obviously, Belichick has trust in his current group of greyhounds, and has every reason to - given that his running game ranked second in the NFL in Adjusted Line Yards, which gives a true assessment of the efficiency of a team's running game.

Lead back Blount was ranked 6th out of 50 running backs with one hundred carries or more in success rate, which is descriptive of his consistency as measured by successful running plays, success being determined as to whether he gained 40% of the team's need for a first down on first down, gaining 60% of the team's remaining yards on second down, and 100% of the remaining yards on third down...

...his 52% success rate in these situations making him a better bet to gain the yardage needed than just about any "Elite" back you could think of or name, and the fact that passing back Dion Lewis was also ranked #6 for backs with less than 100 carries speaks to the consistency of the running game, so long as it has the players to field.

As a team, the Patriots ranked second in the entire NFL in total line yards, which identifies the success rate of running plays between losing up to five yards and gaining up to five yards on each play.  The Patriots are a robust 4.18 in this category - second only to the Arizona Cardinals - a large degree of their success based upon the fact that they had the lowest "stuff" percentage in the league, with only 16% of their running plays losing yardage.

These metrics show that had the Patriots featured the running game to an acceptable balance while their backs were healthy, especially with their pass catching corps missing integral pieces, they could have dictated terms to the opposing defenses, forcing them to defend the entire field and keeping the pass rush off of Brady

Needless to say, a few things need to be addressed to ensure that the running game actually complements the passing game, instead of just making token appearances.

First and foremost, the need for a running game has never been more critical, so it is time for Josh McDaniels' Flying Circus to come back a little closer to earth.  With the best and most dangerous tight end combination in the league featuring two behemoths who can run block just as well as they can catch and run, the proper thing to do would be to run a lot of 12 or 22 Personnel as their primary package.

The 12 Personnel package (1 running back, 2 tight ends, 2 wide receivers) should be the predominant package that will facilitate the uptempo game that New England is so good at, because with the overall skill set of the top playmakers, Brady could call a running play off tackle or right up the gut with a tight end pulling for a wham block, and if he sees a mismatch to take advantage of, he can go five wide simply by barking out one word.

The threat of a running game in this package is such that the defense would have to respect it, while making sure that they have the players on the field to ensure coverage in the patterns - same with 22 Personnel (2 backs, 2 tight ends and 1 receiver) as the Patriots have three excellent passing backs that they could rotate in and out, two of whom have had a little success running the ball out of such formations.

In other words, with health on their side, the running game needs to balance out the passing game, and while the meaning of balance to the Patriots is running the ball just enough to offset the passing game and forcing the defense to defend the entire field, they need to establish the run early and keep with it through out the game, not abandon it for fireworks in the second half - all that does is allow the opposing pass rush to load up and overwhelm the line, and we all saw how well that works.

Secondly, a token running game is worse than not having one at all.  If you are throwing 80% of the time out of the 12 or 22, you are wearing out your offensive linemen.

It takes twice as much energy for a 300-plus pound man to back peddle, anchor and then absorb the initial punch of a pass rusher than it does for him to drive forward and deliver the initial punch to the defensive lineman.  With the threat of a running game, the play action is more effective and it allows the linemen to conserve their energy by having an extra split second to anchor themselves and deliver the initial punch once the pass rusher decides the play call is a pass.

The way that McDaniels used the running game last season was a primary reason for the Patriots' lack of success on offense down the stretch, including the absolutely brutal beating Brady took - and while the performance of the running game in the playoffs had more to do with simply not having the players, he really didn't even try to establish one, either.

This has to change.  No amount of new blood infused into the backfield is going to fix the offense when the person calling the shots isn't going to use them, and we've also shown that the players that the Patriots already have are effective enough, if given that opportunity.

Tuesday, May 3, 2016

Brissett Perfect Fit For Patriots' Conceptual Offensive Scheme

"The staple of the Erhardt-Perkins offense is employing a quarterback whose best attribute is intelligence.  Brady has shown that you don't have to be an elite athlete to make the offense work, you just have to know the offense inside and out, know where everybody is on both sides of the line of scrimmage and to be able to deliver precision strikes in the intermediate passing game, allowing the receivers to work down the field after the catch. 
Brady does that better than anyone who ever played the game, so it's patently unfair to expect the same out of a second year man who has more nick-names than career passing attempts - but why wouldn't we expect Garoppolo to come in and show the same kind of efficiency that he showed in college and in his brief appearances in the NFL?" - Foxborough Free Press, May 13, 2015
Nearly a full calendar year has passed since we first entertained the thought of Jimmy Garoppolo under center, leading the New England Patriots through the first quarter of their season - and now, thanks to a 2-1 decision by the Second Circuit Court of Appeals, we find ourselves pondering the same thing once again.

Last Monday, the court reinstated Patriots' quarterback Tom Brady's four-game suspension handed down by NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell for his alleged involvement in whatever the sad and wrong "DeflateGate" saga is all about, with the panel of judges simultaneously confirming that the powers awarded him in the last Collective Bargaining Agreement negotiations are indeed universal, his decisions unilateral and, indeed, unfortunate.

Such power eventually leads to revolt and change, but it isn't going to happen soon enough to save Brady from having to serve the suspension.

Third-year backup Jimmy Garoppolo will take center stage for New England while Brady is out, but being void of a semblance of a body of work, we don't really know what to expect from the guy when the Sunday night lights flicker to life in Arizona against the Cardinals when the season begins - but there seems to be two schools of thought among fans and experts alike.

For the milk drinkers, the thought is that Garoppolo will be used as more of a game manager, not unlike what Matt Cassell experienced initially in 2008 when Brady tore his ACL - only this time Brady will be coming back, so we may not see a true body of work from him...

...but the whiskey crowd wants to see the young fire-pisser jump in feet first from the very first possession, staking a claim as a legitimate professional quarterback.

The latter scenario seems to be the one gaining steam, as a decent performance by Garoppolo nets the coaching staff and Patriots' fans a little more solace in moving on from Brady in a few years - either that or it gives defacto General Manager Bill Belichick a solid gold trade chip moving into Jimmy's contract season.

Either way, Garoppolo is auditioning for something, which is a win in Belichick's book, and hopefully four wins on the scoreboard.

In the wake of Belichick selecting North Carolina State quarterback Jacoby Brissett in the third round of the 2016 NFL draft, it's looking more like Garoppolo is auditioning to be a very valuable bargaining chip in the 2017 offseason, which is just about protocol for the Patriots with their quarterback depth, as they tend to select an understudy to Brady every three drafts.

Indeed, since Brady took over at quarterback a couple of games into the 2001 season, and former starter Drew Bledsoe was shipped off to Buffalo the following offseason, Belichick has selected a quarterback in the draft with regularity. In 2002 it was Rohan Davey, followed by Kliff Kingsbury the following season,..

Matt Cassel in 2005, Kevin O'Connell in 2008, Ryan Mallett in 2011 and Garoppolo in 2014 - none of whom besides Garoppolo was ever seriously considered anything more than a clipboard, though Cassel made a big enough splash taking over for an injured Brady in 2008 to earn himself a career in the NFL.

The only other signal caller who made any sort of mark in the league was Brian Hoyer who was signed as an undrafted free agent by Belichick in 2009, serving as Brady's primary backup for three seasons before being released in favor of Mallett, gaining spot starts in Arizona, Cleveland and Houston in the seasons since.

In every instance, Brady's backup became fodder for fans and media as trade bait, with Cassel going to the Chiefs for the 34th overall pick in the 2009 draft - which the Patriots used on safety Patrick Chung - and then Mallett was dealt to the Houston Texans for a late-round selection in 2014,, being replaced as the clipboard holder to Brady by Garoppolo.

Now, Garoppolo is the subject of much of the same banter in the wake of Belichick spending 3rd round draft capital on Brissett, who was initially projected as a late-round prospect.

On paper, the gap between the two seems to be enormous, with Jimmy G. a far more polished pro-style quarterback than Brissett, though the rookie out of North Carolina State has some pretty heavy names as character and professional references in former Patriots' coaches Bill Parcells and Charlie Weis, who both think the kid is going to be a star.

But not yet.  He has some bad habits that he picked up from some brutal beatings he took in college - throwing off of his back foot being the worst - while Garoppolo exhibits pristine foot work and a solid pocket presence.

Brissett has sloth-like "speed" on the run and has a tendency to vacate the pocket due to phantom pressure, but is elusive in a Brady-like manner and has an absolute rocket launcher for an arm - which doesn't translate to a successful deep ball, more often than not overthrowing his receivers by a wide margin on vertical routes if pulling out the heavy artillery...

...all of which makes Brissett sound more and more like a young Brady in a physical sense
, though it remains to be seen if the kid has the cool and calm that the Greatest of All Time has under pressure, which is something that comes with experience and not necessarily something that can be taught.

All of that said, what can we expect to see in the next twelve months with the Patriots' quarterback situation?

Certainly, Garoppolo's audition is going to go a long ways in answering that question - but make no mistake, Garoppolo has all of the tools to be successful.  Cerebral, he understands the nuances of the Erhardt-Perkins scheme and recognizes coverages well enough to put his receivers in position to gain a mismatch. He is much more physically gifted than Brady and moves well in the pocket to avoid contact, though he is light years behind the greatest of all time in feel for the pressure and instincts.

He has small hands, but a snap release unseen since Dan Marino retired, and an NFL Caliber arm that he sometimes has a little too much confidence in, as he will try to "Brady" a ball, fitting it into a tight window surrounded by bad guys - Brady has an absolute laser in the intermediate set so long as he has the pocket to step into his throws...

...while Garoppolo has a compact wrister that looks effortless but gets to the receiver in a hurry and Brissett has a full overhead motion that generates a lot of heat, but also puts great touch on bucket drops, which he has to do in order to complete the long toss.  Like Brady, you give this kid a clean pocket and room to step up, he will pick defenses apart in the short to intermediate zones and loft home run balls over the top.

He obviously has much to learn about the professional game and, in particular, the Erhardt-Perkins offense and it's conceptual base, but he couldn't have landed in a better spot to do just that.  At least for this season, he will be able to sit and learn from the masterful Brady and maybe pick up a few pointers on footwork from Garoppolo as well.

Things will probably be drastically different at this time next year, as Garoppolo may well translate into a high draft pick for the Patriots, but that essentially depends on Brissett, and whether he has the brains and the brawn to handle Belichick's complicated concepts.

But if Parcells and Weis have given the young man their seal of approval already, and with Belichick and his staff thinking highly enough of him to spend top draft capital to bring him aboard, the Brady-esque 21 year old will probably become Brady's understudy and, perhaps, eventual successor.



Sunday, May 1, 2016

"Napoleon Complex" Drives Feisty Corner Jones

New England Patriots players usually aren't what one would call "Flamboyant", or even talkative - at least not in public, and especially not on social media sites. About as wild as any Patriots' players get is when Rob Gronkowski posts party pics on twitter, or when Brady goes full SpongeBob on Instagram, or on the rare occasions that head ball coach Bill Belichick posts a video on "Snapface."

Anything more is frowned upon, so many Patriots' players either rarely post on their accounts, or just don't bother having one. It's much better than being called onto the carpet for having an innocent remark turn into fodder for the motivation of their opponents.
Jones' on-field attitude on full display

So then, why would Belichick spend his top draft capital in a college cornerback whose presence in Twitter is just as large and looming as his wingspan on the field?

Typical of Belichick corners, Alabama's Cyrus Jones is a press corner who is exceptional in run support and will try to physically manhandle receivers coming off the snap, getting full value out of the five yard mugging zone in an attempt to intimidate the pass catcher and take him out of his game - the bigger the receiver, the more physical the diminutive Jones becomes.

You see, Jones displays all of the classic symptoms of "Napoleon Complex" or, "Little Man's Disease" as it were: Overly aggressive, verbose, loquacious, smart as a whip, and did I mention physical?  All of which several of Jones' Crimson Tide teammates can attest to, even to the point of raising the ire of head coach Nick Saban.

"He told us not to and he still did it" fellow corner Maurice Smith testified to recently when Saban told his team not to retaliate on social media for comments being made by upcoming playoff opponent Ohio State. "I knew that he would because that's the type of person that he is. He backs it up on the field."

"He's a little hot head."

Belichick will have to make extra sure that Jones understands the team policy regarding propaganda, and perhaps try to reign him in off of the sites altogether,because he can be just as combative on Twitter with people whom he feels disrespects him or his teammates as he is in mixing it up with receivers.

There is no lack of confidence in Jones' game, but there is a lack of height, which hurt him outside of the numbers early in his college career until he learned to use the sideline as a second defender and his incredibly long arms as his leverage - an aggressive challenger to force his mirror to make the spectacular catch, either over his head or tap-dancing on the chalk.

But first, they have to beat him off the snap which, if his college tape is any indication, is like trying to climb out of a mosh pit full of anger-crazed punks who are bent of keeping people in the pit, so that they can distribute proper beatings.

In other words, he frustrates receivers. It's kind of his calling card.

Many have Jones pigeon-holed as a slot corner in the NFL, and lord knows he has the makings of a fine one - but to not consider him for the outside is limiting the full expression of his skill set, as his exceptionally long arms, fundamentally sound technique and a vicious streak a mile wide could have quite an impact on vertical threats and slot receivers alike.

Generously listed as 5' 10 and a svelt 198 pounds, Jones had plenty of takers among opposing quarterbacks tested him with taller receivers - but as time wore on, those opposing players learned what coach Saban and his Alabama teammates already knew. "It's not like all of a sudden he became a good player" Saban said of Jones before last season's National Championship Game, "He's always been a good player for us."

Saban also has successfully used Jones as a punt returner, watching him shred opposing kick coverage to the tune of 12.6 yards per touch and four touchdowns, but it is his skill as a cornerback that has his coach and teammates raving.

"I really can't remember many balls Cyrus has given up this time of year." said Marlon Humphries, Jones' mirror on the weak side of the defense, "Most of the time, the shots were thrown at me that were completed. I know he's a great corner but sometimes he gets overlooked because of his size."

Smith expounded on Humphries' statement, adding, "They (the quarterbacks) look at him like, 'Ok, I'm going to throw on him', and then he turns around and gets a pick - then that side of the field is shut down the rest of the game.

Shut down? Those are words that were not often heard around Foxborough until names like Revis came and went and names like Butler appreared on the scene from practically nowhere, so Jones will have to understand that it's going to take the fine folks of New England a little time and a full body of work to come around to the thought that a rookie they've never heard of could provide such things...

...but it shouldn't take too long for opposing receivers and quarterbacks to understand why Belichick taking a virtual unknown was sheer genius, especially considering the success that Pro Bowl corner Malcolm Butler has enjoyed - as they will find out when they have corners on both sides beating up their skill players.

There are some who feel that Jones' physical style will draw plenty of holding and illegal contact flags on the tightly-called professional level, and that may be true - but once he works through the nuances of the professional game, it will be the receivers drawing the flags for such things as offensive pass interference and unsportsman like conduct, because that's what happens when a feisty corner with a huge chip on his shoulder gets under their skin.

Just don't look for him to be boasting about it on Twitter any longer.  Belichick prefers that his players do their talking with their skill on the gridiron - and Jones does that, too.


Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Final Patriots' Mock Draft - The Song Remains The Same

When seeking to compile a mock draft for your favorite team, there are three things that you absolutely need to know.

First, you need to know your team.  This encompasses more than just the names of the players or memorizing their jersey numbers or even knowing their stat lines.  It means knowing the team philosophies, the systems that they run on offense and on defense, their special teams philosophies and having a feel for the character and skill sets of the players already on the roster.

Secondly, as the old adage goes from the Art of War, know your enemy as you know yourself. Everything that is imperative to know about your team, you need to know about your division rivals, in addition to knowing their needs from draft perspective, because what the teams ahead of your team need is going to impact your team's big board...
Eastern Michigan's Darius Jackson

...and, lastly, you need to know something about the skill sets of the players coming out of college and how head ball coach Bill Belichick could integrate their individual skill set into building a better monster.

Because Belichick doesn't draft to fit a particular need, rather, he drafts based on his intuition and imagination, perhaps in a perpetually singular trance - or daydream, if you wish - fixated on how he would use a particular player's strengths while devising schemes to mask his weaknesses.

This offseason is loaded up a little different than most, in that the NFL stripped the Patriots of their first round draft pick for the on-going, never-ending, fraud-on-its-face "DeflateGate" saga and, as the result of deals made in free agency and in trades during the course of last season, they have no fourth or fifth round selections, either.

What they do have is two second rounder picks - the extra one courtesy of the Arizona Cardinals in the Chandler Jones deal - and two third rounders, the extra a compensatory selection for the Patriots losing cornerback Darrelle Revis in free agency last offseason...

...then the middle round void gives into a ghastly number of sixth round picks - five, to be exact - and a couple of seventh rounders, and if the Patriots were to keep things just the way they are, I have a feeling the draft would feel like my initial mock draft, with players like Oklahoma speedster Sterling Shepard and Arkansas running back Jonathan Williams gracing Foxborough with their presence.

Belichick essentially destroyed my initial mock by bringing in a bunch of veterans to fill need positions - so feeling slighted by the dark master, my second mock draft attempted to take advantage of the additional second rounder by standing pat on their selections and taking a cornerback with so many red flags on his character profile to make a matador's cape in LSU's Rashard Robinson, then went after Indiana's bell-cow runner Jordan Howard.

But then it occurred to me that there was no way in hell that Belichick was going to stand pat and be forced to take talent in the second round that he could just as well find in the third and fourth rounds, so in the third mock draft I presented a scenario where Belichick traded down out of the second round to pick up an additional third rounder and to get back into the fourth, then trading up with their insane number of sixth rounders to gain some fifth-round leverage.

Along the way, the only constants in these mocks have been Tulsa wide receiver Keyarris Garrett, bad boy Robinson and Western Michigan swing tackle Willie Beavers but I liked the idea of Belichick gaining draft capital by trading down so much that I have kept things the same for my fourth - and final - mock draft.

No longer will Belickick have to worry about wasting a second round selection on borderline talent and can genuinely pick for value in the middle rounds starting on Friday evening - so for those who missed it, here are the picks from my third mock, as I am standing pat on my latest selections:

3. Phillip Wright, ILB, Arizona
    6' 0", 239

Known by the nickname "Scooby", Wright missed all but three games last season with a meniscus tear, but the previous season he put up numbers never seen on a college gridiron before: 163 tackles - an insane 29 for loss - forced six fumbles and notched 14 sacks, and this from an inside linebacker.

Wright played in a defense that aligned 3-3-5 Big Nickle, which makes him farther ahead of the game as far as being prepared to step into New England's Big Nickle than any other pure linebacker in the draft class. He has elite instincts and always seems to know where the play is going. His one drawback is in man coverage, where he has the angles and toughness to hang with a running back in the pattern, but not the requisite speed.

Combine that with the fact that he is coming out after his injury-marred Junior season, and Wright is still available in the 3rd round, and what a steal he would be.

3. Javon Hargrave, DT, South Carolina State
6' 1", 309

Elite quickness at the snap is Hargrave's calling card.  A one-gap penetrator with exceptionally quick feet, he dominated FCS interior offensive linemen, racking up an astounding 45 tackles for loss in the past two seasons, to go along with 30 sacks.

So, as with any Belichick selection, the question looms as to how someone who is a two-time All American and MEAC 2014 Defensive Player of the Year isn't among those in the discussion for tackles in the first-round - with the answer being that Hargrave is still very raw in technique, and won in college with sheer athleticism, but there is little doubt that his versatility is an intriguing fit in Foxborough.

He is a pocket disruptor, meaning that he has the bulk and strength to push his mirror back into the pocket, but also the lateral agility to handle the five-tech on a three man line if necessary, bullying guards and tackles alike.

3. Keyarris Garrett, WR, Tulsa
    6' 3", 220

A classic long-strider and immediate deep threat, Garrett is an imposing physical mismatch for most corners and, most importantly perhaps, tracks the ball well and has shown a knack for adjusting routes to settle in under wayward throws.

He is lightning off the line and understands the leverage he possesses with his tremendous length and deep speed, which corners will have to respect, giving Garrett opportunities to work back towards the quarterback in the role of a possession-type receiver.  He's a good route runner, but played in primarily spread offenses, and often as the trailer in bunch formations, perhaps inflating his stats a bit.

But as former basketball coach Frank Layden used to say, you can't teach height and you can't coach speed, and this kid has both. He will fall to the third round primarily because of his level of competition in college will make for a major jump in class to the NFL, but also he has proven to be a bit fragile.

4. Rashard Robinson, CB, LSU  
    6' 1", 171

Robinson's draft grade is all over the place, which is to be expected with as many red flags and character concerns he carries in his baggage - but there is no denying the kid's skill.

Multiple suspensions, including a permanent ban from the LSU football team and an arrest for illegal entry into a teammate's apartment overshadow Robinson's shut-down quality athleticism and intuition. Has not played organized ball since early in 2014 - and that, plus his spindly frame and aforementioned baggage lowered his 1st or 2nd round talent into the third day of the draft initially, but it's tough for evaluators to overlook his pure talent.

Had an impressive Freshman year where he locked onto the opposition's best receiver and pinned him against the sideline, taking some gambles though his makeup speed and explosion to the ball in the air are first class. In other words, he can put on an island and will likely survive anything an opposing quarterback can throw his way. Belichick has had some luck with troubled corners in the past, and they all seemed to fall in line with the Patriot Way. If this kid does the same, the sky over Gillette Stadium will become a no-fly zone.

4. Darius Jackson, RB, Eastern Michigan
    6' 0", 220

There are not many backs in the 2016 draft class that sport the size-speed-intangible trifecta like Jackson, and the only reasons he could still be available in the fourth round - for which the Patriots would have to trade up or down for - are that he is from a small school, and was a starter for just one season.

He wasn't invited to the combine, but he did attend Michigan's pro day, where the power back-sized runner posted a stupid-fast 4.35 in the 40 yard dash with a large contingent of Patriots' scout on hand. He has experience in a Pro-style offense, is fluid in the pattern and in the run after the catch - plus he is excellent in picking up the blitz and blocking.

Currently, Jackson is off the grid for the first two nights of the draft, but that should change as running backs start coming off the board in droves in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.  There is no physical or talent-related reasons why he's so lightly regarded, but the Patriots would be smart to trade back into the 4th round to snag this kid as their power back of the future, and maybe of the present.

4. Bronson Kaufusi, DE, Brigham Young University
    6' 6", 285

The son of BYU defensive line coach Steve Kaufusi, this is no entitled kid.  Rather, having his father as his coach on the college level put Kaufusi on a different, more deliberate pedestal where he had to work twice as hard to get where he is.

Called the "Perfect BYU player" by former coach Bronco Mendenhall, Kaufusi is desirable to the Patriots because he displays a variety of pass rush moves when lined up as a traditional defensive end, and is broad enough to anchor in the running game and bull rush in the passing game as a five-tech end.

It is this positional versatility that elevates Kaufusi above other potential prospects in the same draft range, and is the only end with true versatility in the class besides Florida's Jonathan Bullard. But it is exactly this versatility that makes him perhaps undesirable to teams search for traditional ends or five-tech tackles.

Kaufusi has a non-stop motor and sports a power forward physique, with long arms and big hands.

5. Willie Beavers, OT, Western Michigan
    6' 5", 321

Carries a 5th to 6th round draft grade because of coming from a small school and because he is still raw in his technique - but there is no denying that Beavers has all the tools to become a solid left tackle in the NFL, with proper coaching and a little patience.

Mirrors speed rushers on the outside and physically manhandles them, pushing them around the pocket or simply stymieing them. His issue is moving to his right, where he will lose his balance against strong interior moves by the pass rushers. It is a technique issue, but one that will prevent him from coming in and becoming a force right away. He is excellent in the running game and could help a team as a swing tackle while perfecting his game.

5. Thomas Duarte, TE/WR, UCLA
    6' 2", 231

Is he a receiver or a tight end? On one hand, he has great size to be a receiver, but lacks the straight line speed expected over the top of the defense. On the other hand, his size is also appropriate for a move tight end, and frequently wins on crossing routes and up the seam, but is not as physical as you would want your tight end to be.

Reliable hands and being a touchdown maker are his calling card, but he is a bit soft on the takedown, as he will go down like a sack of potatoes with a solid hit from a corner or safety, and isn't much for dragging folks - generally, he catches the ball and looks for a place to sit down, but his separation ability and speed up the seam dictates that if he is in the clear, he will aim for the end zone.

6. Justin Simmons, FS, Boston College
    6' 2", 202

With Duron Harmon coming into a contract year, the Patriots would be wise to gain some leverage by bringing in a like-safety prospect.

Simmons is a tall, fast prospect in the mold of Harmon, though not quite as speedy, and displays the proper angle awareness to minimize holes for running backs on the second level and for cutting off throws to deep receivers, often turning incompletions out of sure scores.

Simmons frame wont hold much more weight, so he is maxed out at 202, but he is a playmaker who could make the team and provide the team leverage in negotiations with Harmon.

7. Antwione Williams, OLB, Georgia Southern
    6' 3", 247

Intimidating sideline to sideline hitter who lacks burst and straight line speed, but has learned to use attack angles to become a draftable linebacker. Stout and violent against the run with some edge-setting properties - may be a better interior gap-plugging linebacker at the pro level.

7. Devon Johnson, RB, Marshall
    6' 0", 238

Nicknamed "Rockhead" due to his no-nonsense, downhill running style, Johnson doesn't try to avoid contact with linebackers - rather, he takes pride in driving through their attempt to tackle him. Recruited to Marshall as a tight end, so he shows soft hands in the pattern, though he is not a threat to run away from defenders and has limited run-after-catch ability. Could be a convert to H-Back and would have some competition in camp to gain a roster spot.

Monday, March 21, 2016

Free Agency vs. Draft - Pass Catcher Possibilities For The Patriots

Shepard has elite separation skills and goes deep from the slot
Trying to project what New England Patriots defacto General Manager Bill Belichick will do in the offseason to build his team to an elite level is an exercise in futility - and since he doesn't have a first round pick to ponder, that makes it even less likely that anyone will figure out what he's going to do.

But we can try, as his best bet for an immediate impact player may be in free agency, while his M.O. with rookies coming in through the draft process is to bring them along slowly and let them learn from the veterans.

That said, and with there being needs at weakside linebacker, running back, wide receiver and for a swing tackle on the offensive line and perhaps an outside the numbers press corner (which varies wildly depending on who you talk to) there figures to be a combination of tenured veterans and raw rookie talent finding their way to Foxborough in the next six weeks.

The New England Patriots' pass catching corps have too much of a good thing.

Well, perhaps that is understating the obvious, as they actually have an embarrassment of riches for quarterback Tom Brady to target in the passing game, so could they possibly be looking to add rookies to the log jam?

Before Patriots' head ball coach Bill Belichick went on a free agency rampage and secured the talents of former Chicago Bears tight end Martellus Bennett, the feeling among most experts was that Brady needed a speedy target to tear the lid off of the defense vertically - but now, even the most ardent supporter of that notion has to admit that Belichick is going heavy and physical.

Besides, the Patriots have never been about going vertical, except for the seasons that they had Randy Moss and Dante Stallworth, but that was another time long past.

Rather, the Patriots are more about spreading a defense horizontally, taking opposing corners outside the numbers to the sidelines on dig routes and isolation flats, the tight ends and possession receivers running crossers and seams, while a seemingly endless parade of passing backs wheel out of the backfield and into the pattern...

...and always within a box that extends to both sidelines and up the field no more than 25 yards.

Why? Because that is Brady's effective range on his deadly accuracy. Beyond that, it's a crap shoot. Now, if there were a receiver out there in free agency or in the draft that had elite speed and was adept at adjusting his route to run underneath wherever his long throws end up, then that player would be squarely on Belichick's radar, but there aren't too many Randy Moss clones out there to be had.

That was the thing about Moss. He was a once in a lifetime talent that could go get the balls that other players couldn't. He had the desire, the heart and the rare physical skill and god-given intangibles that made him the best pure pass catcher ever to play for the Patriots, and perhaps the greatest of all time.

The point here is not to crown Moss with any sort of title, rather, to warn off Patriots' fans that want this college receiver or that one, this free agent or that. You have to research what the Patriots do on offense, you have to look at what's already on the roster and keep track of trends - and what you find is that Belichick selects the receivers that he does for a reason.

Every player he brings in, he has a specific purpose for, and that purpose is to maximize their strengths and minimize their weaknesses on an individual basis, then meld 53 different skill sets into a game day roster that gives his team the best chance to succeed - and he's been right a hell of a lot more than he's been wrong.

All of that said, who is out there, either in free agency or coming out of college, that could satiate the population who want a Johnny Torch deep threat, but also a guy that goes and gets the ball, wherever it may be?

Tulsa's Keyarris Garrett is as close as you're going to come in this draft class to a Randy Moss comparison because, in fact, Moss was mentioned a couple of times in his draft profiles:
"With a combination of height, strong hands and the speed to streak away from opponents, there were moments in 2015 in which Garrett brought back memories of a young Randy Moss. While he possesses the talent to warrant early round consideration, Garrett remains quite raw and may need a strong supporting staff and patience to maximize his potential." - Rob Rang, CBS Sports
Garrett has requisite size at 6' 3" and 220 pounds, but on paper he does not possess the same vertical speed and route running that screams deep threat, yet he somehow manages separation. The supporting staff is in place in Foxborough, and they have proven to be patient to a fault with their receivers, so Garrett could very well land in New England, particularly with having a late second day, early third day draft profile.

Clemson's Charrone Peake has the speed to take the top off of a defense, even after two knee surgeries, and had to sit behind DeAndre Hopkins and Sammy Watkins until he got his chance to be the Tigers' number one, but didn't post the eye-popping numbers that the aforementioned NFL stars did in their tenure. He has the size at 6' 2" and 210 pounds, but his medical charts and smallish hands have him graded out as a late fourth or early fifth round selection.

Many mock drafts have the Patriots selecting Ohio State's Braxton Miller in the second round, but Miller is a gadget player who needs a tremendous amount of work at route running - which isn't necessarily his fault as he switched positions from quarterback to receiver late in his college career, but that doesn't change the fact that he is more of a project than the Patriots may be willing to take on...

...which may or may not be true, because with the addition of veteran receiver Chris Hogan from the Bills in free agency, there is enough veteran talent for Belichick to be comfortable with bringing a kid with a lot of upside in and coaching him up, integrating him into the offense slowly.

Because as it stands, New England is suddenly loaded down with pass catching talent, and it's not just at wide receiver.

As a matter of fact, the tight end duo of All Pro Rob Gronkowski and Pro Bowl talent Martellus Bennett dominate the landscape in Foxborough, and the dual passing back threat of the electric Dion Lewis and the sneaky James White complement the wide receivers in such a way that they nearly could switch the tables and make the receivers the complement to the rest of the offense.

Even the depth behind Julian Edelman,Hogan and DannyAmendola has potential with Keshawn Martin and Chris Harper having some promise, while up-until-now bust Aaron Dobson could miraculously become a deep to intermediate threat between now and September, though that seems like a long shot.

So assuming that the Patriots have the talent curve that would allow them to coach up a project receiver,Miller could certainly still be on the table, but not at a second round grade, as a project should come from the middle rounds, like Oregon's Bralon Addison or Colorado State's Rashard Higgins.

Small and without elite deep speed, Oregon's Addison's calling card is video game-like elusiveness with toughness over the middle. He is a natural slot guy, but in the Patriots' offense he would run a lot of jailbreaks and dig routes, being counted on to make the defender miss in space, which, as mentioned previously, is his biggest strength. He also comes with a fourth round grade.

Higgins is another big receiver who doesn't possess top-end speed, but has terrific feet and is a great route runner, which should appeal to the Patriots as a possession type talent. He has some ball security issues but is supremely confident in his route running and his ability after the catch, but is lacking in explosiveness off the snap and could have difficulty against press corners in the NFL - which is why he comes with a second or third round grade, depending on who you talk to.

Finally, there is Oklahoma's Sterling Shepard, the best Patriots fit of all.

The lone drawback on Shepard is his diminutive size, and what is causing him to be a late second rounder instead of a first - and you find many scouts who wouldn't want him running routes for them out of the slot, where his "whip" route is particularly devastating.

But what may appeal more to Brady and to Patriots' fans in general is his penchant for getting behind his mirror in the pattern:
"Clean with his double moves and if cornerbacks bite, is able to get over the top to track throws and run under them for the big play. Will adjust routes to ball placement. Not afraid over the middle. Born to catch a football." Lance Zierlein, NFL.com
Emphasis mine, as his ability to adjust on the fly and run under throws that are slightly off-target would give the Patriots the kind of over-under all-purpose receiver that they haven't had in a decade. His separation skills at the top of his routes are without peer in this draft class, the only drawback is the aforementioned size and lack thereof - but that slight, fair or unfair, puts Shepard right in Belichick's wheelhouse at the end of the second round.

Obviously, there are other receivers that bring different skill sets to the field, but the Patriots offense requires a certain type of receiver with brains and an explosive first step to gain immediate separation, as well as run precise routes once off the line - and if they need someone who will contribute immediately, the choices for the Patriots at the end of the second round are somewhat limited...

...with only Shepard - and to a limited extent any other receiver mentioned - ready for immediate contribution, with names like Ohio State's Michael Thomas and Florida's Demarcus Robinson also possibilities if the Patriots are willing to be patient and work them into the lineup gradually...



Sunday, March 13, 2016

Reloading The Musket - Initial Mock Draft Addresses Perceived Glaring Needs

The National Football Leagues' annual petting zoo known as Free Agency is well under way and, as usual, the New England Patriots are hanging back in the shadows, allowing the market to set players' values in order for head ball coach Bill Belichick to get the best value for Bob Kraft's money.

Belichick and his scouting staff have hosted many players, but signed a precious few, most notably picking off wide receiver Chris Hogan from Buffalo, signing the restricted free agent to a three year deal after the Bills refused to match their offer.

Hogan fills a perceived need of an all-purpose pass catcher with some speed to get over the top, and with decent size to challenge the intermediate zone and the seam, but that's about it for free agency, meaning that the Patriots' team building strategy will be top-heavy with draft selections and, thankfully, the 2016 draft class is chock full of skill at positions of need for the Patriots.

Perhaps the greatest need of all is at running back, where New England is currently void of a powerful Bell-cow back who can eat turf all day long, as last season's version of a lead back, LeGarrette Blount is still languishing in free agent limbo, awaiting word from Belichick as to whether he will be returning to the team this season or not.

He is a good fall back option, and since New England either lost out on the prime meat at running back in free agency or just didn't care to compete for their services, he will likely return - but he's going to have a rookie to contend with - and if it were up to us, we would be making deals to get up to the top of the second round to draft Alabama Bell-cow Derrick Henry...

...and that still may be an option that the team is working toward, but a more likely scenario is for them to concentrate on using their draft picks to select the best players available at a position of need and then get down to the process of winning another division title, taking another trip the AFC title game and hopefully making it back to the Super Bowl.

With that in mind, Foxborough Free Press introduces their initial mock draft of the 2016 team building season:

2. Sterling Shepard, WR, Oklahoma
    5' 10", 195
   
If ever there was a receiver born to play for Bill Belichick, this is the guy. Like incumbent receivers Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola, Shepard has slot receiver size and separation ability, but possesses deep speed to take the top off of a defense, unlike the aforementioned Patriots. At the Senior Bowl, he routinely abused the top cornerbacks in the draft class.

Usually, you see things like the above gushing tribute and think "First Rounder", but his size and perceived system fit limit him to a projected second or third round player - exactly the kind of value Belichick enjoys receiving from his draft capital.

3. Jonathan Williams, RB, Arkansas
    5' 11", 220

Williams suffered a foot injury last August that required surgery and robbed him of his Senior season. But before the injury, he was considered a better all-around  back than his more well known contemporary, Alex Collins.

At full health and full speed, Williams is a slasher in the body of a power back. Instinctive with good patience and excellent vision, Williams seeks to punish defenders, with the ability to run through arm tackles and will finish runs on his own terms rather than taking the big shot. He has soft hands in the pattern and is a willing blocker in blitz pickup. If his foot is 100%, Williams represents great value in the third round.

3. Phillip Wright, ILB, Arizona
    6' 0", 239


Known by the nickname "Scooby", Wright missed all but three games last season with a meniscus tear, but the previous season he put up numbers never seen on a college gridiron before: 163 tackles - an insane 29 for loss - forced six fumbles and notched 14 sacks, and this from an inside linebacker.

Wright played in a defense that aligned 3-3-5 Big Nickle, which makes him farther ahead of the game as far as being prepared to step into New England's Big Nickle than any other pure linebacker in the draft class. He has elite instincts and always seems to know where the play is going. His one drawback is in man coverage, where he has to angles and toughness to hang with a running back in the pattern, but not the requisite speed.

Combine that with the fact that he is coming out after his injury-marred Junior season, and Wright is still available in the 4th round, and what a steal he would be.

4. Tyler Higbee, TE, Western Kentucky
    6'6", 250

If Rob Gronkowski is to realize the potential of his likely Hall of Fame career, he is going to need a sturdy, reliable presence in the move tight end capacity to compliment his skill. That's where Higbee comes in.

At 6'6" and 250 pounds, Higbee is comparable in size to Gronkowski, and has the speed to threaten all three levels of the field. He has the run-after-the-catch mentality from his days as a wide receiver - yes, his acceleration and straight line speed is that impressive. Flying a bit under the radar due to a knee sprain that kept him out of Western Kentucky's bowl game and the Senior Bowl, not to mention that he's making the leap from a small school.

6. Rashard Robinson, CB, LSU  
    6' 1", 171

Robinson's draft grade is all over the place, which is to be expected with as many red flags and character concerns he carries in his baggage - but there is no denying the kid's skill.

Multiple suspensions, including a permanent ban from the LSU football team and an arrest for illegal entry into a teammate's apartment overshadow Robinson's shut-down quality athleticism and intuition. Has not played organized ball since early in 2014 - and that, plus his spindly frame and aforementioned baggage lowers his 1st or 2nd round talent into the third day of the draft.

Had an impressive Freshman year where he locked onto the opposition's best receiver and pinned him against the sideline, taking some gambles though his makeup speed and explosion to the ball in the air are first class. In other words, he can put on an island and will likely survive anything an opposing quarterback can throw his way. Belichick has had some luck with troubled corners in the past, and if Robinson does fall to the sixth round, he would come as a tremendous value.

6. Willie Beavers, OT, Western Michigan
    6' 5", 321

Carries a 5th to 6th round draft grade because of coming from a small school and because he is still raw in his technique - but there is no denying that Beavers has all the tools to become a solid left tackle in the NFL, with proper coaching and a little patience.

Mirrors speed rushers on the outside and physically manhandles them, pushing them around the pocket or simply stymieing them. His issue is moving to his right, where he will lose his balance against strong interior moves by the pass rushers. It is a technique issue, but one that will prevent him from coming in and becoming a force right away. He is excellent in the running game and could help a team as a swing tackle while perfecting his game.

6. Thomas Duarte, TE/WR, UCLA
    6' 2", 231

Is he a receiver or a tight end? On one hand, he has great size to be a receiver, but lacks the straight line speed expected over the top of the defense. On the other hand, his size is also appropriate for a move tight end, and frequently wins on crossing routes and up the seam, but is not as physical as you would want your tight end to be.

Reliable hands and being a touchdown maker are his calling card, but he is a it soft on the takedown, as he will go down like a sack of potatoes with a solid hit from a corner or safety, and isn't much for dragging folks - generally, he catches the ball and looks for a place to sit down, but his separation ability and speed up the seam dictates that if he is in the clear, he will aim for the end zone.


7. Antwione Williams, OLB, Georgia Southern
    6' 3", 247

Intimidating sideline to sideline hitter who lacks burst and straight line speed, but has learned to use attack angles to become a draftable linebacker. Stout and violent against the run with some edge-setting properties - may be a better interior gap-plugging linebacker at the pro level.

7. Devon Johnson, RB, Marshall
    6' 0", 238

Nicknamed "Rockhead" due to his no-nonsense, downhill running style, Johnson doesn't try to avoid contact with linebackers - rather, he takes pride in driving through their attempt to tackle him. Recruited to Marshall as a tight end, so he shows soft hands in the pattern, though he is not a threat to run away from defenders and has limited run-after-catch ability. Could be a convert to H-Back and would have some competition in camp to gain a roster spot.