Prelude To A Championship, Part II: Setting The Edge Paramount To Patriots' Run Defense Success

When Training camp started, Patriots' Defensive Coordinator Matt Patricia welcomed what he thought was a defensive line bordering on the elite.

And, why not?  After all, In addition to bringing back stalwarts in nose tackle Malcom Brown, three-tech tackles Alan Branch and Vincent Valentine - and complimented by defensive end Trey Flowers - then added five-techs Lawrence Guy and Adam Butler through free agency, traded for defensive end Kony Ealy then drafted Arkansas defensive end Deatrich Wise and hybrid Derek Rivers.

Harrison was the perfect pickup for a team needing edge help

But things started going south almost immediately as Branch showed up out of shape, Valentine and Rivers hit the IR with knee injuries and Ealy was a bust in the system and was released. Suddenly, the Patriots were thin on the defensive line and with their linebackers dropping like flies as well, they entered the season with a front seven that had plenty of holes and no dirt to fill them in.

What was a compelling story line heading into camp - that being the structure appearing to be changing to a more flexible alignment to bring the linebackers' athleticism more into play - was suddenly a question of survival with a protracted earning curve that manifested as one of the worst stretches of defense that Foxborough has seen under head ball coach Bill Belichick.

The first month of the season was harrowing indeed, but with time and a concerted effort to play the most rudimentary style of defense in an effort to bring out the skill set of each player, and that has paid off in spades, and may be the best job of coaching in Belichick's tenure.

Bringing in Guy, Ealy and Butler signaled that the Patriots were in the final stages of building a defensive front that would resemble the old New York Giants 3-4 plus one which means an offset three man line playing odd spacing with a "Jack" linebacker being the fourth rusher, that position manned by a rotation of players on the second level.

That alignment was part of a defensive philosophy invoked by an obscure Giants' defensive coordinator named Bill Belichick, who had one of the most fearsome front sevens the game has known, with the likes of nose tackle Jim Burt flanked by five-tech ends Leonard Marshall and George Martin...

...backed by interior linebackers Gary Reasons and Harry Carson and outside 'backers Carl Banks and Lawrence Taylor. Taylor, who is widely considered to be the best outside linebacker to play the game, was usually the "Plus One" who combined with the three down lineman to put a four-man rush on the quarterback.

No need to go into the legacy of Taylor, nor the Giants in general, because there isn't a Taylor, nor Reasons, nor Carson, nor Banks to be had, only previously obscure youth on the second level playing behind a proven defensive line in a scheme tailor-made to the skill set of each player - and it's worked out pretty well so far.

How well? Considering that once the dark first month of the season is eliminated, the Patriots' defense has allowed a miserly 14 points per game, which is tops in the National Football League and a far cry from the 32 points per game they surrendered in the first four weeks of the season - while finishing the season in the middle-of-the-pack in total defense...

...as well as third down conversions per game, net time of possession allowed, and eighth in sacks - but the only real issue with the defense the entire season was setting the hard edge

In the running game that means taking away the lanes outside of the tackle box and forcing the running back inside, where big bodies awaited to make the stop, and in the passing game it requires covering the backs coming out of the backfield and into the flat on passing downs, as well as boxing in uber-ambulatory quarterbacks whose game depends on escaping pocket pressure and extending the play to the flats.

All told, the Patriots faced five teams whose quarterbacks thrive outside of the pocket and who game planned for New England with called bootlegs to take advantage of their weakness on the edges - and those teams, Kansas City, Houston, Carolina, Atlanta and Buffalo, combined for seven yards per carry from their quarterbacks and an astounding 28 first downs.

Running backs didn't have quite the absurd success that scrambling quarterbacks did, but frequently exposed the strong side of the Patriots' defense for 5.5 yards per carry, though they have gotten better during the past two weeks of the regular season. The reasons? well, ten sacks in two games will get you there, as well as limiting some fairly substantial running games to a measly 62 yards per game.

But in preparing for their divisional round matchup with the Tennessee Titans, the Patriots are facing an offense that gets it done on the ground from both the backs and the signal caller positions, working behind perhaps the best offensive line in the league.

Against  Kansas City in the wild card round, Eddie George / Marion Butts hybrid runner Derrick Henry punished the Chiefs from all angles, hammering home 96 yards in just 15 carries (6.4 ypc) right into the teeth of the Kansas City run defense, then showed off his wheels on the edges, turning the corner four times for 38 yards (9.5 ypc)...

...while quarterback Marcus Mariota broke the pocket - not to mention the Chiefs' hearts - five times, gaining 52 yards (10.4 ypc) and picking up four crucial first downs in the process, including a desperation 3rd and eight from the Titan 38 that kept alive the game winning drive.

The scariest part of the Titans' win over the Chiefs was how their line dominated a fairly stout front seven, enabling Henry to run for two first downs and bleeding Kansas City's time outs in a smashmouth display of the four-minute offense. They were able to wear down the Chiefs' defense by winning the time of possession battle and forcing them to be on the field for seventy offensive snaps...

...so that by the time Mariota started feeding the raging Henry on his downhill surge late in the game, the Chiefs had nothing left in the tank.

Henry wore them down, which is to be expected of a 247 pound running back who is not what one would call "creative" in his running style, which is a little like a bull in a china shop where he seems unaware of anything except his initial read, a running style that often leads to a trail of bodies in his wake of carnage - and it looks as if he's not even trying.

His offensive line has more to do with that than his style, however, as he's not the kind of back that can make something out of nothing, and generally gets what's blocked for him - so the best way for the Patriots to limit the damage that Henry can do is by setting the edge and by being disciplined in their individual gap assignments. That should help the Patriots win on first and second down and then get off the field on third down, which the Titans have accommodated this season to the tune of a 25th ranked 35% conversion rate.

The problem there is that the Patriots only hold their opponents to a 39% conversion rate - but that's the Patriots, they play the bend-but-don't-break scheme as well as anyone ever has, giving up most of their yardage between the twenties but clamping down in the red zone, allowing only 43.75% of their opponent's red zone visits to result in touchdowns, good for fourth-best in the NFL.

Those number explain how New England's defense can be one of the worst in terms of yardage allowed, yet in the top five in points allowed.

One thing we probably will not be seeing much of is Henry in the pattern, as he's been targeted just eleven times all season, so the Patriots will most likely run with a standard 3-4 plus one, with Eric Lee, James Harrison and Trey Flowers taking turns at that "Jack" position, a spot that the newbie Harrison showed in the season finale that he is plenty capable of handling, so his workload should increase, allowing for defensive coordinator Matt Patricia to utilize Lee and Flowers to scheme with.

The Titans can run the ball. Their smashmouth style appeals to old-school football fans and elicits respect from their opposition and should have Patriots' fans looking forward to seeing how their defense holds up against a true feed bag bell cow with a mean streak, and how they plan to contain a quarterback who plays the same legacy-brand of ball that is a perfect compliment to Tennessee's downhill approach.

New England has allowed just 124 rushing yards in the last two games combined against teams who are run-first entities, for a per-rush average of just 2.6 yards - and while it seems that holding the Titans to that standard may be a pipe dream, the Patriots have certainly shown they are capable of it - so if they can set the edge, filtering Henry inside and containing Mariota in the pocket where he'll be forced to throw, they'd have to feel pretty good about their chances to win the game.

Free Agency Vs. NFL Draft - Possibilities For The Patriots At Running Back

Trying to project what New England Patriots defacto General Manager Bill Belichick will do in the offseason to build his team to an elite level is an exercise in futility - and since he doesn't have a first round pick to ponder, that makes it even less likely that anyone will figure out what he's going to do.

But we can try, as his best bet for an immediate impact player may be in free agency, while his M.O. with rookies coming in through the draft process is to bring them along slowly and let them learn from the veterans.

That said, and with there being needs at weakside linebacker, running back, wide receiver and for a swing tackle on the offensive line and perhaps an outside the numbers press corner (which varies wildly depending on who you talk to) there figures to be a combination of tenured veterans and raw rookie talent finding their way to Foxborough in the next six weeks.

Today: Running backs

In the AFC Championship game back in January, the New England Patriots offense sputtered like a lawnmower going uphill on wet grass until midway through the fourth quarter, when all of a sudden a light went on and their passing game became unstoppable.

Razorbacks' Jonathan Williams

Unfortunately, it was too little, too late for the Patriots, as curious decision making combined with un-Patriots' like errors and a leaky offensive line had reduced quarterback Tom Brady to a twitching mass of anxiety.

But that's what happens when you don't have a running game.

Without a running game, what happened to the Patriots in the AFC Title tilt is exactly what could be expected, as the Broncos loaded up the box and came after Brady like sharks in a feeding frenzy, giving him precious little time to make his read and throw the ball. The line had no chance of holding up under such overwhelming numbers, and many of Brady's throws were simply to get rid of the ball, overthrowing a few and throwing at his receivers' feet other times.

The problem of becoming one-dimensional on offense had it's genesis in week nine when dynamic scatback Dion Lewis tore his ACL in a game against the Washington Redskins, but became a full-blown issue when power back LeGarrette Blount suffered a season-ending hip injury in week fourteen. The promotion of rookie load Joey Iosefa from the practice squad looked to be a decent solution to a backfield that had just Brandon Bolden to run between the tackles...

...curiously, however, Iosefa was released after the week fifteen matchup with the Titans and was relegated back to the practice squad once he cleared waivers. The move was made to make room for unemployed power back Steve Jackson, who took some snaps the following week, but proved to be nothing like the dominant big back that he was earlier in his career.

As a result, the Patriots were stopped cold on the ground by the Jets and Dolphins to close out the regular season - two losses that ended up giving the homefield advantage to the Broncos - followed by a narrow win over the Chiefs in the divisional round in which New England ran the ball a grand total of seven times, then just 14 times in the gut-retching loss to Denver.

That is called abandoning the running game, and it has no place in Patriots' football.

To avoid getting locked into another circumstance like that, it was generally speculated that Belichick was going to target a running back in free agency, the draft, or both - but the first three days of free agency have dragged by like dead animals and nary a running back has been added to the Patriots' roster despite a glut of decent runners on the wire.

But the Patriots actually need a certain type of runner. They are already well stocked with passing backs, as Dion Lewis and James White are now proven commodities, the need is for a power back, preferably one who is good in pass protection, has reliable hands in the pattern, but can blast through the line and pick up the tough yards up the middle in the running game.

That job has been handled by plodder LeGarrette Blount for the past couple of seasons, his success actually greeted with indifference by many fans because he running style is about as exciting as watching syrup running off of waffles - but the truth is that he has been and can still be highly effective in this offense.

Though it may not seem like it, Blount averaged 4.3 yards per carry last season, this after averaging 4.9 in limited action in 2014 and 5.0 splitting duties with Stevan Ridley the season before that - not bad for a one-cut downhill runner who has next to no lateral agility, which may be exasperated and diminished ever further due to the hip injury that ended his season four games short last year.

So it would make sense that Belichick would at least explore the possibility of another power back, especially since Blount is an unrestricted free agent and is no guarantee to re-sign with the team - though there have been reports of mutual interest in doing so - but with four of the top five free agent backs already off the radar, the team's options are limited to lower-tiered veteran talent or the draft.

Of the veteran talent available, Green Bay free agent James Stark has been to Foxborough for a cup of coffee with Belichick, the 6' 2", 220 pound load leaving without an offer from the team, but he is more of a complementary back, not the grinder that the Patriots need - but there are still some of those floating around free agency limbo.

Redskins' bell cow Alfred Morris had his worst statistical season of his career last season, failing to top 1000 yards for the first time in his career, an anomaly considering his great success in his first three seasons, but word is the Redskins are actively trying to make a deal to keep him. Same goes for Tim Hightower of the Saints. Neither player has had much of a market thus far, not surprising since they are all substance with little flash...

...which is exactly what the Patriots need - a no nonsense, one cut downhill runner. But since both the 'Skins and Saints are seeking to re-sign their backs, there is but one wildcard back still out there that could be just what the running game begs for, and is at the very least worth a cup of coffee.

Robert Turbin spent the first three years of his career backing up Beast Mode in Seattle, averaging 4.3 yards per carry while averaging just around 75 carries and 12 receptions per season with the Seahawks. He suffered a high ankle sprain in the third preseason game for the Seahawks last season and was waived with an injury settlement.

He was picked up by Cleveland, but still was not fully healed and ended up finishing the season in Dallas. Now fully healthy after platooning with Darren McFadden for the final few games of 2015, Turbin and his violent running style are still available on the open market. Turbin has the bulk at 5' 10", 225 to thump a few skulls between the tackles, but also has light feet and can make sharp cuts to allude tacklers.

But if none of these guys excite Belichick, there's always the draft, where one back awaits that has New England written all over him.

Derrick Henry is an absolute load, and his draft profile says all Patriots' fans need to know - "Bell-cow running back with the ability to strap on a feed bag and eat for four quarters." Belichick has not had a running back with his size, 6' 3" and 247 pounds, and raw talent since the glory days of balance with Antowain Smith and Corey Dillon.

And he's bigger and faster than them both.

Henry even addressed his two biggest flaws, according to the experts, at his pro day, which was attended by Belichick - he lined up at different positions, including split wide, and caught several passes from teammate Jake Coker to rebut the feeling among the experts that he wasn't a natural receiver, and at the same time showed off some sharp cuts to demonstrate elusiveness.

But he needn't have bothered, because what Henry is, is what the Patriots need most.

Rated at the same level as Henry is Indiana's Jordan Howard, who at 6' 0" and 230 pounds punished the second and third levels at throughout the Big 12. In fact, if Belichick were looking for a back that has already demonstrated lateral agility, optimal vision and steady work between the tackles, Howard may be a better all around running back.

Unlike Henry, however, Howard runs upright and takes some massive shots to his frame and as a result, has spent some time on the trainer's table. There are concerns about his style from the experts, who feel that his upright running is going to cause him to spend more time on the sidelines and less griding down the clock.

Louisiana Tech's Kenneth Dixon is another player who has incurred injury due to his running style, but not because he runs to upright, rather, he initiates contact on the second and third levels and runs through defenders. He finishes runs and does not go out of bounds, seeming to enjoy a little contact with safeties and corners.

Devontae Booker is a bit of a different runner from the first three on this list, as he is a patient back with excellent vision and has an explosive cut into the hole once he sees it forming, and has ankle-breaking moves on the second level. The 5'11". 220 pound Runnin' Ute is right on the edge of how NFL scouts see power backs in terms of size, but the talent is apparent and obvious.

There are two backs from Arkansas that could be considered good fits for the Patriots' running game. Alex Collins is the better known name of the two, but his battery mate Jonathan Williams may be the more complete back.

Collins is pure power, a one-speed, one-cut north and south runner, but that might not be enough for Collins to be truly considered as there is just a small body of work in regard to receiving, which isn't necessarily a red flag in this offense, but when combined with poor pass protection technique, that doesn't translate to a three-down power back in Foxborough...

...while Williams is an instinctive slasher, who carries a power back size - he's excellent in the pattern and is a willing blocker in blitz pick up. Collins will be selected before Williams because there are questions about how healthy Williams is, after missing the entire 2015 season with a foot injury that required surgery.

That said, we have Williams as one of the Patriots' third round draft picks in our first mock draft of the offseason.

There are others, obviously, and the scenarios are as plentiful as yards and points when the Patriots offense is running full bore - but with a very specific need in mind for the Patriots, it looks like they either will trade up to snag Henry or go with one of the aforementioned Bell-cow backs...