And, why not? After all, In addition to bringing back stalwarts in nose tackle Malcom Brown, three-tech tackles Alan Branch and Vincent Valentine - and complimented by defensive end Trey Flowers - then added five-techs Lawrence Guy and Adam Butler through free agency, traded for defensive end Kony Ealy then drafted Arkansas defensive end Deatrich Wise and hybrid Derek Rivers.
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| Harrison was the perfect pickup for a team needing edge help |
But things started going south almost immediately as Branch showed up out of shape, Valentine and Rivers hit the IR with knee injuries and Ealy was a bust in the system and was released. Suddenly, the Patriots were thin on the defensive line and with their linebackers dropping like flies as well, they entered the season with a front seven that had plenty of holes and no dirt to fill them in.
What was a compelling story line heading into camp - that being the structure appearing to be changing to a more flexible alignment to bring the linebackers' athleticism more into play - was suddenly a question of survival with a protracted earning curve that manifested as one of the worst stretches of defense that Foxborough has seen under head ball coach Bill Belichick.
The first month of the season was harrowing indeed, but with time and a concerted effort to play the most rudimentary style of defense in an effort to bring out the skill set of each player, and that has paid off in spades, and may be the best job of coaching in Belichick's tenure.
Bringing in Guy, Ealy and Butler signaled that the Patriots were in the final stages of building a defensive front that would resemble the old New York Giants 3-4 plus one which means an offset three man line playing odd spacing with a "Jack" linebacker being the fourth rusher, that position manned by a rotation of players on the second level.
That alignment was part of a defensive philosophy invoked by an obscure Giants' defensive coordinator named Bill Belichick, who had one of the most fearsome front sevens the game has known, with the likes of nose tackle Jim Burt flanked by five-tech ends Leonard Marshall and George Martin...
...backed by interior linebackers Gary Reasons and Harry Carson and outside 'backers Carl Banks and Lawrence Taylor. Taylor, who is widely considered to be the best outside linebacker to play the game, was usually the "Plus One" who combined with the three down lineman to put a four-man rush on the quarterback.
No need to go into the legacy of Taylor, nor the Giants in general, because there isn't a Taylor, nor Reasons, nor Carson, nor Banks to be had, only previously obscure youth on the second level playing behind a proven defensive line in a scheme tailor-made to the skill set of each player - and it's worked out pretty well so far.
How well? Considering that once the dark first month of the season is eliminated, the Patriots' defense has allowed a miserly 14 points per game, which is tops in the National Football League and a far cry from the 32 points per game they surrendered in the first four weeks of the season - while finishing the season in the middle-of-the-pack in total defense...
...as well as third down conversions per game, net time of possession allowed, and eighth in sacks - but the only real issue with the defense the entire season was setting the hard edge
In the running game that means taking away the lanes outside of the tackle box and forcing the running back inside, where big bodies awaited to make the stop, and in the passing game it requires covering the backs coming out of the backfield and into the flat on passing downs, as well as boxing in uber-ambulatory quarterbacks whose game depends on escaping pocket pressure and extending the play to the flats.
All told, the Patriots faced five teams whose quarterbacks thrive outside of the pocket and who game planned for New England with called bootlegs to take advantage of their weakness on the edges - and those teams, Kansas City, Houston, Carolina, Atlanta and Buffalo, combined for seven yards per carry from their quarterbacks and an astounding 28 first downs.
Running backs didn't have quite the absurd success that scrambling quarterbacks did, but frequently exposed the strong side of the Patriots' defense for 5.5 yards per carry, though they have gotten better during the past two weeks of the regular season. The reasons? well, ten sacks in two games will get you there, as well as limiting some fairly substantial running games to a measly 62 yards per game.
But in preparing for their divisional round matchup with the Tennessee Titans, the Patriots are facing an offense that gets it done on the ground from both the backs and the signal caller positions, working behind perhaps the best offensive line in the league.
Against Kansas City in the wild card round, Eddie George / Marion Butts hybrid runner Derrick Henry punished the Chiefs from all angles, hammering home 96 yards in just 15 carries (6.4 ypc) right into the teeth of the Kansas City run defense, then showed off his wheels on the edges, turning the corner four times for 38 yards (9.5 ypc)...
...while quarterback Marcus Mariota broke the pocket - not to mention the Chiefs' hearts - five times, gaining 52 yards (10.4 ypc) and picking up four crucial first downs in the process, including a desperation 3rd and eight from the Titan 38 that kept alive the game winning drive.
The scariest part of the Titans' win over the Chiefs was how their line dominated a fairly stout front seven, enabling Henry to run for two first downs and bleeding Kansas City's time outs in a smashmouth display of the four-minute offense. They were able to wear down the Chiefs' defense by winning the time of possession battle and forcing them to be on the field for seventy offensive snaps...
...so that by the time Mariota started feeding the raging Henry on his downhill surge late in the game, the Chiefs had nothing left in the tank.
Henry wore them down, which is to be expected of a 247 pound running back who is not what one would call "creative" in his running style, which is a little like a bull in a china shop where he seems unaware of anything except his initial read, a running style that often leads to a trail of bodies in his wake of carnage - and it looks as if he's not even trying.
His offensive line has more to do with that than his style, however, as he's not the kind of back that can make something out of nothing, and generally gets what's blocked for him - so the best way for the Patriots to limit the damage that Henry can do is by setting the edge and by being disciplined in their individual gap assignments. That should help the Patriots win on first and second down and then get off the field on third down, which the Titans have accommodated this season to the tune of a 25th ranked 35% conversion rate.
The problem there is that the Patriots only hold their opponents to a 39% conversion rate - but that's the Patriots, they play the bend-but-don't-break scheme as well as anyone ever has, giving up most of their yardage between the twenties but clamping down in the red zone, allowing only 43.75% of their opponent's red zone visits to result in touchdowns, good for fourth-best in the NFL.
Those number explain how New England's defense can be one of the worst in terms of yardage allowed, yet in the top five in points allowed.
One thing we probably will not be seeing much of is Henry in the pattern, as he's been targeted just eleven times all season, so the Patriots will most likely run with a standard 3-4 plus one, with Eric Lee, James Harrison and Trey Flowers taking turns at that "Jack" position, a spot that the newbie Harrison showed in the season finale that he is plenty capable of handling, so his workload should increase, allowing for defensive coordinator Matt Patricia to utilize Lee and Flowers to scheme with.
The Titans can run the ball. Their smashmouth style appeals to old-school football fans and elicits respect from their opposition and should have Patriots' fans looking forward to seeing how their defense holds up against a true feed bag bell cow with a mean streak, and how they plan to contain a quarterback who plays the same legacy-brand of ball that is a perfect compliment to Tennessee's downhill approach.
New England has allowed just 124 rushing yards in the last two games combined against teams who are run-first entities, for a per-rush average of just 2.6 yards - and while it seems that holding the Titans to that standard may be a pipe dream, the Patriots have certainly shown they are capable of it - so if they can set the edge, filtering Henry inside and containing Mariota in the pocket where he'll be forced to throw, they'd have to feel pretty good about their chances to win the game.
