2:17am, Lewiston, Maine
I stay up late when it's raining. I love the
weather here, especially this time of year when we get a good rain storm a
couple of times a week and the temperatures dip into the 40's at night. I sit
out on the deck that during the daytime treats me to an explosion of color as
the leaves turn, but tonight, nothing but the cool blackness that brings me
comfort.
I just finished watching the Patriots' victory
over the New York Giants for the second time and made many notes, now sitting
on the deck, a canopy protecting both man and machine from the weird misty rain
that is indigenous to Maine. Every week, I watch the replay twice - first to
study the offense and the second to do the same with the defense.
The last three weeks have been a struggle for the
Patriots' offensively, but we've seen this before.
In 2015, the New England Patriots made it to the
AFC Championship game against the Denver Broncos with Julian Edelman being the
only healthy receiver left on the roster and with no lead back to try and take
all of the pressure off of quarterback Tom Brady and the passing game.
Brady took an epic beating, yet nearly prevailed
anyway on sheer determination and by riding one of the main tenents of
Belichickian philosophy, that of wearing down opposing defenses with large snap
counts and superior conditioning that eventually gives him the upper hand.
And that's what the Patriots are all about. How
many times have we seen the offense seem like they are an 11-man mosh pit early
in games and then come on like gangbusters late to overpower their foes?
The most vivid example of this was in Super Bowl
51, where the Patriots were completely dominated by the Atlanta Falcons through
most of three quarters, then staged the greatest comeback in NFL post-season
history - erasing a 25 point deficit in eighteen minutes of game time...
...the turning point coming at the end of a
13-play drive in the second quarter, Brady throwing an interception in the red
zone that was returned by the Falcons for a touchdown - then the Patriots
taking the ensuing kickoff and driving down the field again on a 12 play drive.
By the time that 25 play sequence ended on a
Stephen Gostkowski field goal to make the halftime score 21-3, the Falcons'
defense was so gassed that they just couldn't keep up with the relentless Patriots'
offense in the second half, scoring at will after Atlanta had taken a 28-3 lead
coming out of the room at halftime - to the point that when the Patriots won
the coin flip to start the overtime period, there was no doubt that they would
drive the length of the field and win the game.
The same thing happened during last year's AFC
Championship game, when New England wore down the Kansas City defense to keep
pace with the powerful Chiefs' offense, then scored easily in overtime to
advance to Super Bowl 53, where they used the same ploy to wear down the Los
Angeles Rams' helter-skelter attack to eventually pull out another title.
It has worked so well for so long that head ball
coach Bill Belichick always builds his teams with superior depth on both sides of
the ball so he is able to rotate players in and out of the lineup to keep them
fresh, maintaining his game plans throughout with the knowledge that his
well-conditioned and fresh players will eventually gain the upper hand and
crush their opponents into submission in the latter stages.
Other than Brady, the Patriots feature no
superstars, just a collection of players who buy into Belichick's philosophy,
knowing that if they just continue to stay the course during games, that they
will have a chance to win, no matter the opponent - and that's exactly what we
are witnessing six games into this 2019 season...
...the main difference between those teams of the
recent past and this years' incarnation is that Belichick has finally built a
defense that will not allow the Patriots to fall behind, no matter how
incongruous the offense looks - and knowing that sticking with their offensive
game plan will eventually cause the opposing defense to wear down enough for
the aging Brady to work his late-game magic.
That said, the start to this season is the
personification of this Belichickian philosophy.
Three yards and a cloud of dust is not just the
calling card for the running game, but applies to the offense as a whole. For
all of Belichick's tenure, he has stated matter-of-factly that the short
passing game is simply an extension of the running game, and he employs running
backs who can produce in both facets.
With one notable exception, his receivers have
always been of the variety that finds the sticks and make good use of the field
between the hashes - his longest gainers usually down the seam, but those are
shots taken just a few times per contest, and normally only after Brady has
lulled the defense to sleep with his methodical, incessant approach.
The results stemming from this approach usually
has the Patriots' offense at or near the top of the league in both plays run
and time of possession. You see where this is going.
For example, in last Thursday's match up with the
New York Giants, New England ran a whopping 75 offensive snaps, compared to 46
for New York, and the time of possession was fully double that of the Giants.
New York played admirably, but deep in their hearts they knew it was for
naught...
...that Brady, for as docile and ordinary as he
looked, was just setting them up for the kill by running 44 plays in the first
half, then finishing them off with an absurd 16 play, sixty yard drive in their
only third-quarter possession that kept the Redskins' defense on the field for
nearly ten minutes.
That drive resulted in a missed field goal
attempt, but the damage was done and the purpose well taken.
That's what New England does to people. That's
what they did to Denver in that AFC title tilt in '15 and to Atlanta in Super
Bowl 51 and to the Rams last February - and what they have done to every single
opponent so far this season, and what they will continue to do to the rest of
the teams on their schedule.
And good thing, too, as injuries have dictated to
the Patriots' offense in much the same fashion that they did in 2015. In fact,
the hurts have left the Patriots' pass catching corps so thin that in the
second half against the Redskins, they were left with only one personnel
package featuring Edelman and rookies Jakobi Meyers and Gunner Olswezski - not
to mention that they were trying to function with only one healthy tight end
and no fullback, both staples of the offense.
Even Belichick will have a tough time grinding out
yardage and scores with such a bare cupboard, but with ten days off before
their Monday night showdown with the hated New York Jets, he has time to
develop a game plan to attack a decent Jets' defense.
Time is also on the side of receiver Josh Gordon,
who suffered what was apparently an MCL sprain to his left knee on Thursday
night - or even work out a pass catcher or two, or maybe even swing a trade for
a veteran receiver on another team as Belichick has plenty of capital to barter
with, but not a lot of cap dollars to spend.
There is also the presence of rookie wide out
N'Keal Harry on the I/R with a bad hammy, who has a designation to return and
can do so this week should the team choose to activate him - and there's really
no reason not to bring him back to the active roster, unless the hamstring
hasn't healed. If it has, he gives the offense a large perimeter target with
the skill to haul down those back-shoulder throws that Brady loves.
If nothing else, he's a physically imposing target
who specializes in fighting for the ball in the air, with the size and wingspan
to collect a good percentage of 50/50 balls - and once he establishes himself
as a legitimate threat, just his presence will free up more room for Edelman,
Gordon, Meyers and passing back James White to operate in.
It also helps the running game by forcing defenses
to eliminate a linebacker in favor of a fifth defensive back, making one less
big body for the patchwork offensive line to deal with - and with left tackle
Isaiah Wynn eligible to be activated off the IR as well, the protection of
Brady's backside and run blocking on the edge would become a strength rather
than the weakness that it is now.
Some even want the Patriots to bring back troubled
Antonio Brown, citing the fact that New England owes the mercurial receiver a
lot of money, so they may as well bring him back and make him earn it. For
Brown's part, he has requested that the NFL hurry up and make a decision in regard
to punishment for alleged sexual abuse allegations so that he can continue his
career without that storm cloud hanging over his head.
Will it happen? Who knows? Certainly none of us know what goes on behind the closed doors
at One Patriots' Place, but the odds are in favor of Belichick running with
what he has, using superb running backs James White and Rex Burkhead as wide
receivers, which will most likely give the Jets all kinds of knots to untie.
But what they have now should do fine against the
Jets, particularly given that the offense shouldn't have to score an exorbitant
number of points with their "Boogeyman" defense suffocating opposing
offenses.
But that is a topic for another night...
