Early Morning Pondering Of The Patriots' Offense

2:17am, Lewiston, Maine

I stay up late when it's raining. I love the weather here, especially this time of year when we get a good rain storm a couple of times a week and the temperatures dip into the 40's at night. I sit out on the deck that during the daytime treats me to an explosion of color as the leaves turn, but tonight, nothing but the cool blackness that brings me comfort.

I just finished watching the Patriots' victory over the New York Giants for the second time and made many notes, now sitting on the deck, a canopy protecting both man and machine from the weird misty rain that is indigenous to Maine. Every week, I watch the replay twice - first to study the offense and the second to do the same with the defense.

The last three weeks have been a struggle for the Patriots' offensively, but we've seen this before.

In 2015, the New England Patriots made it to the AFC Championship game against the Denver Broncos with Julian Edelman being the only healthy receiver left on the roster and with no lead back to try and take all of the pressure off of quarterback Tom Brady and the passing game.

Brady took an epic beating, yet nearly prevailed anyway on sheer determination and by riding one of the main tenents of Belichickian philosophy, that of wearing down opposing defenses with large snap counts and superior conditioning that eventually gives him the upper hand.

And that's what the Patriots are all about. How many times have we seen the offense seem like they are an 11-man mosh pit early in games and then come on like gangbusters late to overpower their foes?

The most vivid example of this was in Super Bowl 51, where the Patriots were completely dominated by the Atlanta Falcons through most of three quarters, then staged the greatest comeback in NFL post-season history - erasing a 25 point deficit in eighteen minutes of game time...

...the turning point coming at the end of a 13-play drive in the second quarter, Brady throwing an interception in the red zone that was returned by the Falcons for a touchdown - then the Patriots taking the ensuing kickoff and driving down the field again on a 12 play drive.

By the time that 25 play sequence ended on a Stephen Gostkowski field goal to make the halftime score 21-3, the Falcons' defense was so gassed that they just couldn't keep up with the relentless Patriots' offense in the second half, scoring at will after Atlanta had taken a 28-3 lead coming out of the room at halftime - to the point that when the Patriots won the coin flip to start the overtime period, there was no doubt that they would drive the length of the field and win the game.

The same thing happened during last year's AFC Championship game, when New England wore down the Kansas City defense to keep pace with the powerful Chiefs' offense, then scored easily in overtime to advance to Super Bowl 53, where they used the same ploy to wear down the Los Angeles Rams' helter-skelter attack to eventually pull out another title.

It has worked so well for so long that head ball coach Bill Belichick always builds his teams with superior depth on both sides of the ball so he is able to rotate players in and out of the lineup to keep them fresh, maintaining his game plans throughout with the knowledge that his well-conditioned and fresh players will eventually gain the upper hand and crush their opponents into submission in the latter stages.

Other than Brady, the Patriots feature no superstars, just a collection of players who buy into Belichick's philosophy, knowing that if they just continue to stay the course during games, that they will have a chance to win, no matter the opponent - and that's exactly what we are witnessing six games into this 2019 season...

...the main difference between those teams of the recent past and this years' incarnation is that Belichick has finally built a defense that will not allow the Patriots to fall behind, no matter how incongruous the offense looks - and knowing that sticking with their offensive game plan will eventually cause the opposing defense to wear down enough for the aging Brady to work his late-game magic.

That said, the start to this season is the personification of this Belichickian philosophy.

Three yards and a cloud of dust is not just the calling card for the running game, but applies to the offense as a whole. For all of Belichick's tenure, he has stated matter-of-factly that the short passing game is simply an extension of the running game, and he employs running backs who can produce in both facets.

With one notable exception, his receivers have always been of the variety that finds the sticks and make good use of the field between the hashes - his longest gainers usually down the seam, but those are shots taken just a few times per contest, and normally only after Brady has lulled the defense to sleep with his methodical, incessant approach.

The results stemming from this approach usually has the Patriots' offense at or near the top of the league in both plays run and time of possession. You see where this is going.

For example, in last Thursday's match up with the New York Giants, New England ran a whopping 75 offensive snaps, compared to 46 for New York, and the time of possession was fully double that of the Giants. New York played admirably, but deep in their hearts they knew it was for naught...

...that Brady, for as docile and ordinary as he looked, was just setting them up for the kill by running 44 plays in the first half, then finishing them off with an absurd 16 play, sixty yard drive in their only third-quarter possession that kept the Redskins' defense on the field for nearly ten minutes.

That drive resulted in a missed field goal attempt, but the damage was done and the purpose well taken.

That's what New England does to people. That's what they did to Denver in that AFC title tilt in '15 and to Atlanta in Super Bowl 51 and to the Rams last February - and what they have done to every single opponent so far this season, and what they will continue to do to the rest of the teams on their schedule.

And good thing, too, as injuries have dictated to the Patriots' offense in much the same fashion that they did in 2015. In fact, the hurts have left the Patriots' pass catching corps so thin that in the second half against the Redskins, they were left with only one personnel package featuring Edelman and rookies Jakobi Meyers and Gunner Olswezski - not to mention that they were trying to function with only one healthy tight end and no fullback, both staples of the offense.

Even Belichick will have a tough time grinding out yardage and scores with such a bare cupboard, but with ten days off before their Monday night showdown with the hated New York Jets, he has time to develop a game plan to attack a decent Jets' defense.

Time is also on the side of receiver Josh Gordon, who suffered what was apparently an MCL sprain to his left knee on Thursday night - or even work out a pass catcher or two, or maybe even swing a trade for a veteran receiver on another team as Belichick has plenty of capital to barter with, but not a lot of cap dollars to spend.

There is also the presence of rookie wide out N'Keal Harry on the I/R with a bad hammy, who has a designation to return and can do so this week should the team choose to activate him - and there's really no reason not to bring him back to the active roster, unless the hamstring hasn't healed. If it has, he gives the offense a large perimeter target with the skill to haul down those back-shoulder throws that Brady loves.

If nothing else, he's a physically imposing target who specializes in fighting for the ball in the air, with the size and wingspan to collect a good percentage of 50/50 balls - and once he establishes himself as a legitimate threat, just his presence will free up more room for Edelman, Gordon, Meyers and passing back James White to operate in.

It also helps the running game by forcing defenses to eliminate a linebacker in favor of a fifth defensive back, making one less big body for the patchwork offensive line to deal with - and with left tackle Isaiah Wynn eligible to be activated off the IR as well, the protection of Brady's backside and run blocking on the edge would become a strength rather than the weakness that it is now.

Some even want the Patriots to bring back troubled Antonio Brown, citing the fact that New England owes the mercurial receiver a lot of money, so they may as well bring him back and make him earn it. For Brown's part, he has requested that the NFL hurry up and make a decision in regard to punishment for alleged sexual abuse allegations so that he can continue his career without that storm cloud hanging over his head.

Will it happen? Who knows? Certainly none of  us know what goes on behind the closed doors at One Patriots' Place, but the odds are in favor of Belichick running with what he has, using superb running backs James White and Rex Burkhead as wide receivers, which will most likely give the Jets all kinds of knots to untie.

But what they have now should do fine against the Jets, particularly given that the offense shouldn't have to score an exorbitant number of points with their "Boogeyman" defense suffocating opposing offenses.

But that is a topic for another night...

Patriots' Lack Of Outside-The-Numbers Receivers A Concern Against Broncos' "No Fly Zone"

The New England Patriots are at a distinct disadvantage going into their matchup with the Broncos in Denver on Sunday night, and until this past Thursday afternoon, it was something that they could do little about.

The Denver Broncos, as usual, sport one of the best defensive units in the National Football League, ranking fourth in the league in pass defense and are fifth against the run - and when one adds in the fact that the Patriots have traditional had a difficult time generating offense in the Mile High City, all of the signs point to a stagnation of what is a potential juggernaut.

Adding to the Patriots' woes is the fact that they have only two wide receivers that are fully healthy and just three that are going to suit up for the game, a circumstance that plays right into the strength of the Broncos' defense: their secondary.

Known as the "No-Fly Zone", Denver's secondary has given Patriots' quarterback Tom Brady a rough go in the recent past, holding the greatest of all time to 177 passing yards in their last encounter, a hard-fought 16-3 Patriots victory last season - and that was with Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan and Malcolm Mitchell in the lineup, three cats that won't be in uniform on Sunday night.

What they do have, however, may be enough to keep the Broncos' secondary busy, but in a different way.

That is mainly because one pass catcher who did miss that last contest and that will be dressed and ready for this year's battle is tight end Rob Gronkowski, who can change the complexion of a game single-handedly - and when combined with recently reacquired tight end Martellus Bennett, they give the Patriots a way to put stress on Denver's safeties and linebackers in manner that they weren't able to last season.

Bennett actually played in that game in Denver, but like everyone else not named Edelman, he struggled to get open, catching just two balls for 35 yards - though his real impact came in the running game, as his powerful pulling and blocking helped running back Dion Lewis pick up 5.3 yards per carry as the sole difference maker on the stat sheet.

That win actually seems like a precursor to what is going on with the Patriots' offense in the last four games of this season, red zone struggles leading to leaving points on the field, New England settling for field goals instead of scoring touchdowns - but things should be a little different this time around, especially if Bennett, who made the trip to Denver with the team and is a game-time decision, suits up and plays.

How effective he would be remains to be seen, but there should be a sense of optimism with Patriots' fans in regard to his readiness to play, as he is coming off three-weeks of R&R and has likely retained the Patriots' offensive playbook with intimate clarity - but if he doesn't play, New England is up against it against the Broncos' pass defense, as they will likely load up the pass rush and come after Brady with gusto.

And why not? The only healthy receivers on the depth chart are speedy vertical targets in Brandin Cooks and the seldom targeted Phillip Dorsett, and slot man Danny Amendola is going to try and play through a bum knee. Gronkowski is the only tight end worth note, and the lack of outside-the-numbers targets for New England could help the Broncos keep him penned up with linebacker-safety double teams...

...while the potent Denver pass rush could be compounded by rogue blitzers that could negate any potential contribution from the Patriots' backs, forcing them to remain in the pocket to help protect Brady.

Either way, there is no easy solution to what the Broncos are on defense, which is built in such a way that they can stop the run (second in the NFL by allowing just 3.4 yards per carry) and force the ball to the air, and with New England being so short outside of the numbers, that could make for a long evening - and don't be fooled by the fact that they are ranked 25th in the league in scoring defense, as their ranking has fallen precipitously by their injury-driven collapse in the past two games.

They gave up 29 points to a potent Chiefs offense two weeks ago and the Eagles offensive juggernaut hung a fifty-burger on them last week, but those teams are far healthier on offense than the Patriots are now, plus New England's well-known struggles in the red zone may very well come into play. The only solution is for New England to grind it out with the run, move the chains and take well-timed shots downfield.

The Patriots' defense and special teams play a major role in this scenario, as the way to beat any team in the National Football League is to make it as difficult as possible for the opposing offense to reach paydirt.

In the last four games, punter Ryan Allen, kicker Stephen Gostkowski and the New England coverage teams have managed to flip field position on their opponents with regularity, ranking second in the NFL in opponent's starting position, which forces the opposing offense to have to go further to get into scoring position - which is a good thing, since the defense has been giving up nearly forty yards per drive.

Of course, the Broncos' offense has been a middle-of-the-pack entity all season, but have taken a nose dive in the past four games - all four of them recorded as losses - failing to break the 200 passing yards plateau and being held short of seventy yards rushing in three of those games, and averaging a minute 13 points per game...

...which is almost exactly what the Patriots' defense has given up in that time span (12.5), though Denver can take solace in the fact that New England remains last in the league in total yardage surrendered, and that Defensive coordinator Matt Patricia has been holding his secondary together with duct tape and prayers.

They are dead last in total defense, in passing yards yielded and in yards per carry in the running game - which is mitigated to a large degree by the fact that New England stiffens the deeper the opponent gets into their territory, ranking fifth in the league in red zone defense - a stat line that justifies their bend-but-don't-break philosophy.

So what does all of this mean?

Absolutely nothing, as when these two teams get together it always seems to turn into a barn-burner, an instant classic with plenty of defense and usually the team that has the football last tends to win the game - but if the Patriots can somehow find a way to run the ball on offense and stop the run on defense, as tall task either way, they could cruise to an easy win...

...but if not, they could struggle mightily and turn a simple sweep and clear of a downward-trending Broncos team into a street fight that comes down to the last possession.

Analysis: Patriots' Schedule A Matter Of Perspective

It's good to be the king...

The National Football League released the 2017 schedule on Thursday evening, and while the fans of the New England Patriots have known for weeks who their opponents were going to be, the schedule revealed the details - and the schedule makers couldn't have been any kinder to the defending champions.

But many are viewing the Patriots' overall schedule with gritted teeth - and that because of playing five of eight after the bye on the road, including three in a row in early December and two in a row in altitude in November - and those games will be challenging for sure, but things do tend to balance out.

How? Well first of all, the two games in altitude come at a fortuitous time, coming off of the midseason bye.

After playing two consecutive home games to close out the first half of the season, the Patriots take their bye in week 9, the effective two week break giving them many options to prepare for games at Denver and at Mexico City to play the Raiders - perhaps taking off for Denver on Tuesday or Wednesday to acclimate to the thinner air in the Rockies...

...then after playing the Broncos on that Sunday night, they will have the option to either stay in Denver or head straight for Mexico City, depending on the availability of venues in which to prepare for the Raiders.

After that two week stretch, the Patriots return home for the Dolphins, the go for three straight at Buffalo, Miami and Pittsburgh - but then end the regular season with two straight at home against the Bills and Jets.

According to my math, those circumstances neutralize both the disadvantage of playing two straight games in high altitude by giving the Patriots two weeks to prepare, physiologically, for the thin air of Denver and Mexico City, gives them two of their three game roadie against divisional opponents, then see them closing with two straight at home against divisional opponents.

The latter means that if the Patriots take care of their business down thew stretch and secure a first round bye after playing the Steelers in Pittsburgh on December 17th, they may not have to leave Foxborough for the following seven weeks until having to travel to Minneapolis to participate in Super Bowl LII.

So stress out all you want about the schedule, but the glass-half-full perspective shows that there is nothing goofy about the schedule-making - no conspiracies, no hanky-panky.  And the fact that they play five prime time contests and also play in two late-afternoon games scheduled for National Broadcasts means that Patriots' fans around the globe will be sure to catch nearly half of their schedule by doing nothing more than picking up their remote and clicking a couple of buttons.

Thursday, September 7 (8:30pm)
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

Raising the banner is always a special occasion, but the Patriots need to figure out where to put the sucker, as they have run out of room adjacent to the scoreboard.  But, alas, they will figure it out - and also get the opportunity to face a dangerous Chiefs' squad that won the tough AFC West last season before being scalped by the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Divisional round of the playoffs.

On the surface, the Chiefs did very little to improve upon last season, re-signing a couple of core players and signing TE Gavin Escobar while giving the ax to RB Jamal Charles - so don't look for them to improve much over their 20th ranked offense and 24th ranked defense.

Sunday, September 17 (1:00pm)
New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints
The Superdome, New Orleans. Louisiana

An early test for the Patriots' defense, as the Saints finished first in total offense in 2016 - but lost a playmaker when they traded WR Brandin Cooks to New England.  The Saints still have Drew Brees chucking the ball about and they signed former Panther Ted Ginn to try and replace Cooks' speed on the outside.

They still sport a terrible defense (27th overall, 31st in scoring defense), so the first round pick they got from New England in the Cooks trade will probably go toward shoring up their secondary, which ranked dead last in the NFL.

Sunday, September 24 (1:00pm)
Houston Texans at New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

The Texans have a great defense - tops in the NFL last season - and they have plenty of receiving weapons on offense, but no one to get the ball to them.  Unless Houston takes a quarterback in the draft, it will be third-year man Tom Savage pulling the trigger in the passing game.  Savage will have a top ten running game to keep the heat down to a minimum, but that might not be enough for them to repeat as the "Default" champions of a horrible AFC South...but then again, the division is so bad, it just might.

Sunday, October 1 (1:00pm)
Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

The Super Bowl that should have been in 2015, but the Panthers were a just a shadow of themselves in 2016 - but a play here or a play there and a little luck, and it would have been them winning the NFC South instead of the Atlanta Falcons.

The Panthers lost seven games by less than three points, and still finished with six wins.  Fighting through injuries, they were able to hold things together, and now they have almost all of their weapons returning healthy.  Don't let the Panthers' record fool you, they were nowhere near as bad as their record indicated.

Thursday, October 5 (8:25pm)
New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida

Scary team on the rise.  The Bucs tripped over themselves coming out of the gate in 2016, losing five of their first eight, four of those losses dropping close decisions to eventual playoff teams, then went 6-2 down the stretch to make a valiant run at the post-season, but coming up just short, beating the likes of Kansas City, Seattle and Atlanta in the process.

Sunday, October 15 (1:00pm)
New England Patriots at New York Jets
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey

Sunday, December 31 (1:00pm)
New York Jets at New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

The Jets come into this season is full rebuilding mode, and with a coach who is squarely on the hot seat.  A team with nothing to lose - especially a hated division rival - is a very dangerous team.  Unfortunately for the Jets, they come into the season without a quarterback of any note, offensive and defensive lines in disarray and zero weapons.  Tough go for the Jets.

Sunday, October 22 (8:30pm)
Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

How motivated are the Falcons going to be to cone into Foxborough and give the Patriots a taste of the whip?  This game is the crown jewel of the NFL's first half and a chance for the Falcons to gain some measure of respect after having their hearts ripped out of their chests in the Super Bowl.

Problem is, Atlanta will be fielding a team that is essentially the same as it was in February, a team that gave New England all they could handle and then some, but eventually wore down and blew a 25 point lead.  We all know the story, now the Falcons want some payback.

Sunday, October 29 (1:00pm)
Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

The second of tow consecutive home games to finish up the first half of the season heading into their bye, the Patriots should have a decided advantage over the helter-skelter Chargers - but this team should not be taken lightly.

Playing in the toughest division in all of football, the Chargers went 1-5 in the division, but taking the Chiefs into overtime and playing the Raiders tough before dropping heartbreakers, and splitting their series with the Denver Broncos - in between beating good teams from Atlanta, Tennessee and Houston.  The Chargers have inherent talent, but not the the intestinal fortitude to finish off an opponent.  We'll see if that improves with a new coaching staff.

Sunday, November 12 (8:30pm)
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado

The Broncos may all well be the Patriots' division rivals, having played each other at least once a year since the 2011 season, New England going 6-3 against the Broncos in nine tries in that time span - with two of their losses coming in conference championship games played at Denver.

So no one has to remind Patriots' fans of the consequence of playing the Broncos.  They have a great defense and plenty of weapons on offense, but their quarterback situation took a step back last season after they let Brock Osweiller leave in free agency, as he had already proven that his skill set was a good match for what Denver liked to do with the football.  But altitude aside, the Broncos are always a tough matchup.

Sunday, November 19 (4:25pm)
New England Patriots vs. Oakland Raiders
Azteca Stadium, Mexico City, Mexico

Denver may be known as the Mile High City, but Mexico City has them beat by a full third of a mile. Playing the Broncos in Denver the previous week will act as an impromptu hyperbaric chamber for the Patriots, allowing them to acclimate to being a mile above sea level in advance of traveling to Mexico City, which one can reasonably expect to happen immediately after their Sunday night gig in Denver.

The Raiders are as high-powered on offense as any team the Patriots will play all season, though their defense leaves them scratching and clawing to score enough points to win.  The Raiders bitch-kitty is their run defense, and the Patriots have four excellent running backs to rotate in and out to keep their running game fresh...

Sunday, November 26 (1:00pm)
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

Monday, December 11 (8:30pm)
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida

The Dolphins are always a tough draw, and the fact that they play each other twice in a span of three weeks doesn't make that any easier for either team.  Miami may have made the playoffs last year, but did so ranked in the bottom third of the NFL on both sides of the ball.  The difference between the Dolphins and most other teams on the Patriots' schedule, however, is that they have the stones to finish tight games.

Many will remember their comeback and near upset of New England in Foxborough early last season when the Dolphins scored 21 unanswered points to close within a touchdown of the Patriots, and were threatening to tie the game up with seconds to play until safety Duron Harmon picked off quarterback Ryan Tannehill in the end zone to salvage the win.

One can expect the same effort from Miami this time around as well, as the current staff seems to have the team headed in the right direction.

Sunday, December 3 (1:00pm)
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Ralph Wilson Stadium, Orchard Park, New York

Sunday, December 24 (1:00pm)
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

This is another instance when the Patriots have to play a division rival twice in a short period of time.  The first was when the Patriots and Dolphins combined to make a Buffalo sandwich in between their contests, and now the Patriots have to play the Bills twice in four weeks, with the Dolphins and Steelers on the docket in between.

The Bills have plenty of talent on offense and play an explosive brand of football, though most of the explosion comes from their dynamic running game, but in contrast, the Bills defense can't stop the opposition's running game to save their lives.  Their saving grace had been their secondary, that is until New England lured cornerback Stephon Gilmore away.

With all of the speed Buffalo has in their receiving corps, they just don't make enough plays in the passing game to keep opposing defenses honest, averaging a mere 190 passing yards per game in 2016.  But a new regime is taking over in Buffalo and, of course, when it comes to playing the champs, every team has a little more motivation.

Patriots Fall Short In AFC Title Tilt; Broncos Advance

"With everyone back, even if no one was back, all the Patriots have to do is to play their game – do their job – and hold onto the football to win this game. If they lose, they will have beaten themselves." - Foxborough Free Press, January 24, 2016

And...yes.

The Denver Broncos are going to the Super Bowl, winning against the New England Patriots offense that didn't play their game - being taken out of their element by a relentless Broncos' pass rush, compounded by what appeared to be general malaise that was never properly addressed.

Denver's pack of speedy sack artists stomped Patriots' quarterback Tom Brady like a grape, logging four sacks and nailing him by a factor of four as he released the ball. Through three quarters, he threw two bad interceptions and overthrew receivers down the field and threw balls in the dirt on short routes, and on most that he connected on, he lead his receivers into nasty collisions.

Brady and the Patriots were handcuffed by poor play calling

It's safe to say that the Denver Broncos defense dictated terms to the Patriots' offense for 45 minutes, limiting the potent New England offense to a miserable 158 total yards through three quarters, when desperation set in on the visitors' sideline.

But maybe, just maybe, desperation dictated to the Patriots offense in a way that the Broncos' defense couldn't.

New England gained more than half of their total yardage in the game during a fourth quarter that held promise all the way to the final seconds, putting together drives of 62, 57 and 50 yards, each time reaching the Broncos red zone, and had the Patriots called on kicker Stephen Gostkowski for chip shot field goals on consecutive drives, perhaps we're talking about a scrappy bunch from Foxborough getting to Santa Clara on guts and guile...

...but on both occasions, down by eight points. the play calls instead were tries for first downs, both times failing miserably.

So there were the Patriots with the ball at midfield with 1:52 remaining, still trailing by eight instead of two if they had gone for chip shot field goals on their previous two possessions, instead needing a touchdown and a two-point conversion just to tie the game and send it into overtime - and it wouldn't have even mattered that Gostkowski had missed his first PAT in like forever, because had the Patriots taken the earlier points, a field goal sends them to the Super Bowl.

Instead, we are left to wonder what could have been.

The Patriots' defense, as it has all season long, played plenty well enough to win the game, as evidenced by holding the Broncos to 244 total yards, but after allowing the Broncos to drive the field on their opening drive, the defense allowed just another 160 yards the rest of the game, and even though the offense put them in short field situations on both Brady interceptions, the 20 points allowed should have been good enough.

Should have been. The stingy Patriots' defense forced three-and-outs on seven different drives and nine punts overall out of fourteen Broncos' possessions, and forcing Denver's offense to move backwards on five of those. But the Patriots' offense was just as helpless for long stretches, the major difference between the two squads being Brady's two picks, which resulted in 10 points for Denver.

So in the end, both defenses played well enough for their teams to win, but the Patriots couldn't overcome their own mistakes on the field and from the sidelines while the Broncos succeeded in holding on for dear life and dodging bullet after bullet that instead found the collective foot of the New England offense.

Brady vs. Manning? That's what this game was billed up to be, but what we got instead was Bill Belichick and his staff out-coaching themselves. They never compensated for their poor line play by going up tempo. They turned the ball over. They allowed the Broncos defense to dictate to their offense.

In other words, they didn't play Patriots' football and beat themselves.

Sure, the Broncos defense had a lot to do with how the Patriots' offense performed, but the Patriots themselves had just as much to do with it.

Perhaps even more.

The Loyalists - Jake and Mike Talk Up AFC Championship Stuff

Every week, two of our bloggers pick each others brains like a couple of zombie baboons - today it's Jacob Bertram from Gamegents.com and Michael Hamm from Foxborough Free Press serving up questions for each other in advance of the New England Patriots' Sunday showdown with the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship game...

Former Indianapolis Colts' General Manager Bill Polian drafted Peyton Manning in 1998, using the very first pick in that draft on a player that he considered one of the best game managers he had ever seen coming out of college.

At first, that wasn't enough for Colts' fans, who had heard nothing positive about Manning's arm strength and about how he became rattled in college when faced with blitz pressure - how the hell was he going to make the Colts' better when he wilted under pressure and his passes looked like wounded ducks?

That job fell to Colts' new offensive coordinator Tom Moore, who developed an offensive system based on simplicity that ended up as the least conceptually dependent offense in the NFL over Manning's career, relying on a stout running game to set up the play action and a tight end-centric playbook that commanded the attention of defensive coordinators, allowing names like Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon to operate on the intermediate level...

...or as Chris Brown commented in his book, The Art of Smart Football, "By using a small number of personnel groups - typically either three wide receivers and a tight end or two wide receivers and two tight ends - it limited the possible responses from the defense and made it easier for Manning to diagnose it's weak spots."

In other words, Moore saw Manning as the ultimate game manager, taking what the defense gave him and giving the Colts the best chance of winning based on ball security and execution rather than forcing him into a highly conceptual offense where his arm strength and "Happy Feet" would doom him to being an average quarterback, and the Colts to being an average team.

Moore's influence and foresight helped Manning become one of the most prolific passers in NFL history, but it was Polian's twenty years of experience as a scout and personnel director mixed with Moore's track record with "Game Managers" Mark Malone, Bubby Brister, Neil O'Donnell and Mike Tomczak as the Pittsburgh Steelers' offensive coordinator that made Manning's transition into the pro game a success.

This is to take nothing away from Manning, as he holds many appreciable records and has three conference championships and a world title to his credit, but with names like Marshall Faulk, Edgerrin James, Joseph Addai running the football, Manning had an excellent stable of backs operating behind an equally impressive offensive line in which to running the stretch - a staple of the Colts' offense that opened up the field on play action...

...and with names like the aforementioned Harrison, Wayne and Garcon along with tight ends Marcus Pollard and Dallas Clark in the pattern, many doubted that he could pull off the same success when he signed with Denver prior to the 2012 season, but John Fox's offensive philosophy mixed with the style of offensive coordinator Adam Gase allowed Manning to have continued success in Denver.

All of that, however, came crashing down when Denver fired Fox and his staff and hired prodigal son Gary Kubiak to lead the Broncos, the former backup to legendary quarterback John Elway bringing with him offensive coordinator Rick Dennison, who has worked in Denver before and has been with Kubiac as his offensive coordinator in Houston for three seasons before both were canned by the Texans.

Dennison is more of a down-the-field strategist who ran the show under Mike Shanahan with Jay Cutler as his quarterback in Denver and prefers to have the quarterback with a strong arm be the focus in his offense and uses more of a running back by committee approach and with speedy receivers that can take the top off of defenses.

That is not Manning's game - never has been - and that is a huge reason why he is struggling. Most of his completions this season where he looked like the Manning of old were on intermediate crossers and on comebackers or "Dig" routes, where Manning could place the ball rather than hang the ball up in the air and let his receivers go get it.

Bringing Kubiak in was Elway's manner of dumping Manning for the stronger arm of Brock Osweiller - or starting over with a young fire pisser out of the draft - so Manning's struggles have been more about the system than his declining arm strength, though both combined have the experts feeling like he is done as an NFL quarterback, regardless of success in today's AFC Championship game.

Who covers Gronkowski?

That said, here are today's questions in advance of the game:

Aqib Talib is Denver’s best cover corner, but the Broncos’ secondary will take a huge hit if number two corner Chris Harris either can’t go or is playing with just one arm due to a left shoulder injury. It is supposed that Harris will try to go, but if he is ineffective and the Broncos are forced to go with slot corner Bradley Roby on the outside, will the Patriots try to go over the top on him, or will they be patient and stick to what works for them?

Jake: I have no doubt that if Josh McDaniels feels he can take an advantage of a matchup outside , he will attempt to do so. That being said, in former match ups, even with Chris Harris healthy, Julian Edelman has been a complete terror for the Broncos in the middle of the field. This will be the same, if not worse for the Broncos, if Harris can't play or is hampered.

Roby has shown promise as a young corner for Denver, but will draw a big matchup if he is forced outside into man coverage against the Patriots. I look for Tom to know exactly where he is at all times.

What in your mind is the biggest difference for the Patriots going into the AFC championship against the Broncos compared to when they played them last?

Mike: Health.

When New England played in Denver in late November, they did so without Julian Edelman, without Danny Amendola on offense and then lost Rob Gronkowski late in the game – and the Patriots still had not taken the training wheels off of James White…

On defense, they were without Jamie Collins, then lost Dont’a Hightower in the second quarter. All together, that is a lot of veteran talent lost that the Broncos took advantage of in many different respects – and still, the Patriots had a two score lead going into the fourth quarter.

With everyone back, even if no one was back, all the Patriots have to do is to play their game – do their job – and hold onto the football to win this game. If they lose, they will have beaten themselves.

Has Peyton Manning reached the end of his career? Please elaborate…

Jake: Peyton Manning looks to have reached the end of his career physically. Mentally, especially if the Broncos lose this Sunday, I do not believe Manning is ready to walk away. I do however think this will be his last year with the Broncos, no matter what happens. His mind is a sharp as ever, and in my opinion Peyton will look to another franchise to continue his career after this season.

What does that mean to the Patriots? Well his former offensive coordinator is now the head coach down in south beach. I'm not saying... but I'm saying.

When Hightower left the game with an injury during the regular season against the Broncos his presence was immediately missed. Why is he so important to the run defense?

Mike: At 6’ 3” and 280 pounds, Hightower is the ultimate front seven hybrid. He has the size and burst to fill gaps on the interior run game like a “Mike” linebacker and the same size and burst to effectively rush the quarterback in the passing game – then he displays the speed and lateral agility to cover sideline to sideline, setting the edge with power.

This shouldn’t be surprising to anyone, as he was kind of a swiss army knife at Alabama, playing middle linebacker, defensive end and even reducing down to the under tackle.

Where he was missed most of all was on the weak side edge where the Broncos went for seven yards a pop in the running game, compounded by the fact that strong side linebacker Jamie Collins missed the game with an illness – so folks should expect a different looking run defense from the Patriots this time around.

Manning is pretty much a stationary target for the Patriots’ pass rush, even though the Broncos’ line has done a decent job of protecting him – if Manning is getting hammered early or is ineffective at moving the ball through the air, at what point does Kubiak pull him for the more mobile and stronger-armed Osweiller?

Jake: The only scenario I can see Manning get pulled is if the interceptions start piling up. Logically we know Brock started earlier this year and got a win against the Patriots, so going to him would seem to be a smart choice. However, pulling Manning in maybe his last game, would be controversial to say the least.

In the end, coach Kubiak, if things go south, will be faced with pulling of of the all time greats. It won't be an easy decision. If I had to guess, Manning will take care of the football and it will be up to the Patriots offense to put the game away this Sunday.

With Peyton Manning not the same QB he once was how does what Bill plans this week differ from let's say the game in 2013 as it comes to defending Manning? 

Mike: In 2013, Manning went off on New England’s defense, but the methodology from two years ago still applies today.

Both John Fox, who was the coach of the Broncos in 2013, and current head coach Gary Kubiak believe deeply in the benefits that running game has on an opposing defense, regardless of its effectiveness. In the 2013 game, The Broncos running game was being stuffed initially by the Patriots but Fox kept pounding the ball and the running of Knowshon Moreno made the difference for them on their two touchdown drives, and late in the game to run out the clock.

It was an ugly game, but something that Patriots’ fans have to remember is that despite all of Manning’s numbers – he was 32 of 43 for 400 yards – the New England defense rose to the occasion four different times to stall Denver drives, holding them to field goals instead of touchdowns by forcing Denver into 3rd and long attempts, making plays in the passing game to thwart scoring chances.

And still, despite crazy numbers for the Broncos offense, the Patriots were handicapped by an offense that was missing key players, much the same as we saw this season in the Patriots overtime loss to the Broncos.

The game plan should be pretty much the same this time around: stop the run no matter how many times they run the ball, and put Manning in 3rd and long situations where he has to look down the field at moving targets, then rely on them to come back to the ball and make a play for the sticks.

To read all about the Patriots from an old-school twist, be sure to follow us on Foxborough Free Press and on twitter at @ffpblogger, and for a fresh, modern view of the team go to Gamegents.com and follow Jacob on twitter as well at @gamegentsdotcom !

Prelude To A Championship, Part VII - Run Defense A Product Of Health...On Both Defense And Offense

The last time the New England Patriots went to Denver the Broncos rushed for 5.6 yards per carry.

That's bad, but that number is misleading.

Rushing 32 times for 179 yards and two touchdowns is an epic performance in anyone's book, but it doesn't tell the entire story that for three quarters of football, the Patriots' defense had held the Broncos to a far more reasonable 92 yards on 23 carries, a 4.0 yards per carry.

That still isn't that good, but enough to have held the Broncos offense to just seven points - but one muffed punt later, and a tired Patriots' run defense surrendered 87 yards on just 9 carries, as the Broncos erased a 14 point lead and would eventually beat New England in overtime, with running back C. J. Anderson breaking loose for a walk-off 48 yard touchdown run in the free period.

Hightower (54) and Brown (90) should have a better outing this time around

For the game, the Patriots gave up an abysmal 12.5 yards per carry off the weak side and 6.4 off the strong side, and the press in both cities are treating those numbers as an advantage for Denver, but a closer look at the numbers tells a different story.

The Broncos had two lengthy touchdown runs, both by Anderson. The first one was a 15 yard job off the strong side immediately after Patriots' punt returner Chris Harper muffed the punt that ignited the Denver comeback, and the second was Anderson's 48 yarder in overtime. If you take away those two plays, the weak side gave up just 4.5 yards per carry and the strong side gave up just 2.6.

Obviously, the Broncos were able to run on New England, and they started tearing off yards in chunks as the game wore on. But the real factor in that loss for the Patriots was that the offense could not sustain drives, leaving their defense with precious little time for rest.

Of the fifteen possessions the Patriots had in the game, ten ended in punts with six of those being after the offense had gone three-and-out. To compound those numbers, their four scoring drives took 2:03 (four plays), 1:32 (3 plays), :17 (3 plays) and 1:09 (5 plays). In fact, the longest possession for New England on that day was a six-play, 3:08 drive that ended at midfield with a Ryan Allen punt.

As a result, the Broncos won the time of possession battle by a robust 11 minutes, wearing down the New England defense with long, time consuming drives, and were rewarded with wide open running lanes as the game went later and later.

Still the Patriots held a 21-7 lead going into the 4th quarter, and were it not for the muffed punt, this Sunday's game is played in Foxborough, not Denver.

That said, how can the Patriots prevent that same scenario from playing out this Sunday? First of all, 15 possessions for each side is too many - the offense needs to put together a better plan to sustain drives this time around, which shouldn't be that difficult given that in that last encounter, the Patriots were without wide receiver Julian Edelman and played half of the game without tight end Rob Gronkowski, who left with a knee injury.

Secondly, the team was without strong side linebacker Jamie Collins, who made his first Pro Bowl this season despite missing four games with a mysterious illness. With Collins back and teamed with Dont'a Hightower - who left the November game with a knee injury - the Patriots can run their Big Nickle package (4-2-5) to get more speed on the second level so that Anderson doesn't find those holes off tackle and around the edge.

What else can they do? They played well enough to win the first go around, even being handicapped by massive injury.

The Broncos' offense lives and dies with the run. One would think that with a name like Peyton Manning running the show on offense that wouldn't be the case, but the simple fact of the matter is that Manning hasn't been himself for the past year and a half, so the onus has been on Denver's running game and top-ranked defense to keep them in games...

...and it's been a winning formula for them to the tune of a 12-4 record and top seed in the AFC playoffs, and a win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Divisional round - but it hasn't always been that way.

Early in the season behind an offensive line missing their two starting tackles while breaking in left guard Evan Mathis and two interior linemen that had never played in an NFL game before, the Broncos rushed for just 86 yards per contest, a number that bumped up significantly once Denver head coach Gary Kubiak benched Manning in favor of young Brock Osweiller to 122 yards per game as Kubiak scaled back the offense a bit...

...increasing even more when Osweiller was benched for the final game of the regular season and the divisional round win over Pittsburgh to a whopping 146 yards per game as Kubiak sought to protect his veteran signal caller from opposing pass rushers.

Of course, part of that also has to do with the fact that the Broncos' line - Tackles Ryan Harris and Michael Schofield, guards Mathis and Louis Vasquez and center Matt Paradis - have started every game this season and have gained a large measure of chemistry together - and while the Broncos have had the most success running between Harris and Mathis all season, they have slowly been able to gain traction to the right and up the middle as well.

Running left, the Broncos go for nearly five yards a pop, with four yards a carry to the right and 3.9 up the middle - not bad at all under the circumstances.

The full benefit of that running game was on display against the Patriots in their regular season meeting and should be again on Sunday, though the Patriots are a markedly different team than they were in late November, mostly on offense, but the return to health of the skill position players on offense should hold the total possessions for each team down to a more reasonable number - say around ten...

...which, if the Patriots run their four-minute offense the way that it is designed, should afford their defenders their proper rest between series - should being the key word, as that wasn't the case against the Kansas City Chiefs in the divisional round as New England had scoring drives of 4:37 and 5:36, but averaged less that two minutes per possession on their other seven possessions.

Fortunately for the Patriots, they were able to score on three of those brief drives to put the game out of reach in the fourth quarter, when the defense was able to go into their three-deep shell and force the Chiefs to burn time with short gains, doing so with their big nickle defense, when Pat Chung came up into the box like a weak side linebacker, covering tight ends and shedding blocks to make a statement in the running game.

There shouldn't be a lot of room up the gut against the Patriots as defensive tackle Alan Branch is finding his groove and All-Rookie team nose tackle Malcom Brown has become a force inside with Akiem Hicks flexing his muscles in a backup role. On the strong side, Rob Ninkovich is one of the better edge setters in the league and is flanked by Collins on the second level.

The issue this time, as it was in November, is the weak side. Chandler Jones has been limited in practice since tweaking a knee in the Kansas City game, and linebacker Jerod Mayo is gone for the rest of the season with a bum shoulder and should be replaced on the weakside by Dont'a Hightower, whose "Mike" spot will probably be filled by Jonathan Freeny.

If Jones can't go, talented edge setter Jaball Sheard will get the call at defensive end on the weak side.

The Patriots are indeed healthier than they were in November, and as the offense gains chemistry with all of the players coming back from injury and the defense fills the hole left by Mayo with bigger and faster personnel, they should be in much better shape to finish what they started on that Sunday night in Denver...

Prelude To A Championship, Part VI - Big Nickle Rules From Here On Out

The New England Patriots are the only team in the National Football League capable of running a true Big Nickle Defense - and the Patriots' fan base should thank goodness for that...

For years, New England head ball coach Bill Belichick has been stockpiling safeties in anticipation of using the Big Nickle as his base alignment because, unlike the traditional nickle alignment which sees a third cornerback come on the field in the stead of a lumbering linebacker, the Big Nickle brings in a third safety instead...

...the idea being that, with the trend in the NFL being towards bigger and more athletic tight ends and receivers, a safety could fulfill the requirements for a fifth defensive back more readily and effectively than a corner.

Chung is a scrapper whose physical style is perfect for the Big Nickle

But not just a standard brand free safety, nor your typical in-the-box strong safety. The Big Nickle calls for hybrids, free safeties that can handle sideline-to-sideline duties as the single high man, and strong safeties with coverage skills much like a cover 'backer who has the hitting ability to play the run like the linebacker they are replacing.

What makes the Patriots unique in this alignment, however, is that they employ a free safety that came into the league as a top-rated cornerback, Belichick slowly converting him to safety over a three year span, leading to his taking over at free safety full time in 2012 - which is the same season that he began his stockpiling of safeties, adding Tavon Wilson to the fold in that season's draft.

Duron Harmon was on the menu for the following season and Jordan Richards completed the deal in this past season's draft. In between, the Patriots unsuccessfully attempted to revive the career of former Arizona Cardinals' big hitter Adrian Wilson, which lead to the team re-signing wayward son Patrick Chung after a one-year hiatus from the team in Philadelphia.

The first clue that Belichick really gave to anyone regarding his actual intentions for his secondary came when he kept six safeties coming out of the preseason and kept just four corners. The Patriots have traditionally employed sure-tackling corners in what has been either a 4-2-5 alignment (four down linemen, two linebackers and five defensive backs) or a 3-3-5, depending on the opposing personnel.

But their track record against athletic tight ends and running backs in the pattern hasn't been stellar in the recent past, and much of that has to do with the growing pains that the team experienced as Belichick tinkered with the coverages while slowly building his safety corps - which included bringing Chung back to complete the look.

Belichick even admitted earlier this season that when Chung was with the Patriots from 2009 - 2012, the defense wasn't set up to play to his strengths. When Philadelphia released him as part of wholesale changes in their secondary, Belichick immediately contacted Chung with the news that they were ready to put him in a position where he could be successful.

"After he was released, we followed back up on the conversation we had with him when he left and I said to him 'look, things are a little different here now'" Belichick explained, "and we were able to find a better place for him going forward than what we had before when he was here."

Chung plays best either close to the line in the box or on the line itself, punking tight ends and bigger slot receivers in the passing game, and adding a violent element in run support. But the Patriots were never able to do that when he was in Foxborough before, with only Brandon Merriweather to team with Chung until Belichick cross-trained McCourty.

Then along came Harmon, an obscure safety from Rutgers that didn't even warrant an invite to the combine, but that Belichick thought enough of to make him a third-round pick in 2013. Why? simply because he had the skill set to complete the safety corps as Belichick saw it.

And the way he saw it unfolding was to have Harmon and his sub-4.4 speed patrol the back end while McCourty and Chung wreaked havoc closer to the line of scrimmage.

"They are both very dependable." Belichick offered, "I'd say a lot of tackles those two guys have to make are hard tackles. I mean, there's tackles, and then there's tackles."

"There's a whole element to even getting in position to tackle that comes into play spatially that doesn't come into play on in-line tackles" Belichick continued, "but those two guys, they're very good. I'd say probably two of the better tacklers in the league at their position."

Pretty high raise coming from a man of the Dark Master's stature, but he's a man that appreciates his players, and always tries to put them in the best position to succeed - and once Harmon proved he could handle being the centerfielder, Belichick put his plan into motion, and the results have been spectacular.

No longer are the Patriots susceptible to being abused by athletic tight ends, as Chung and McCourty have been part of the solution that has held opposing tight ends to 57 catches for 596 yards, which averages out to right around three catches and 35 yards per game, hardly a major impact.

McCourty will also help in the pattern on the larger slot receivers, leaving the top two targets on the opposition's arsenal to corners Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan, who will take turns on the opponents' number one threat with Harmon over the top, depending on how their skill sets match up, the other will take the number two threat straight up.

It is a recipe that has helped the Patriots' defense to a top 10 ranking in the league, as all of the defensive backs also bear down against the run - as evidenced by Ryan, Chung, Butler and McCourty making up four of the top six tacklers on the team, while Harmon makes his bones as a large (6' 1", 210 pounds), fast, physical presence on the blue line.

The Big Nickle alignment will be front and center against the Broncos in the AFC Championship game this coming Sunday, as everything their offense can do begins not with quarterback Peyton Manning, but with Denver's running game, an underrated unit that averages 4.2 yards per pop - a stable that includes CJ Anderson and Ronnie Hillman, who combined this season for nearly 1600 yards and scored 12 touchdowns...

...but are also an integral part of the passing game, with 49 catches between them and with both ably picking up the blitz. This also means that the Patriots' linebackers will need to be on full alert, but with the injury status of both Jerod Mayo and Jamie Collins unknown at this time, that story will have to wait for Part VII...

To Rest Or Not To Rest? Patriots Have Decisions To Make in Advance Of Playoffs

To rest or not to rest, that is the question.

Besides armature bloggers plagiarizing the works of famous 17th century poets, there remains a modern day question of whether the talisman of football masterpieces - the great Bill Belichick - has any designs on resting his starters and injured players in the final two weeks of the regular season, having already secured at least the second seed in the American Football Conference.

Of course, having the second seed in the conference assures the Patriots of a first round bye, meaning that they do not participate in the Wild Card round of the playoffs, but will be watching intently as they are guaranteed to host the highest remaining seed surviving the initial knock-out round - a fairly lofty achievement given their injuries this season, but certainly not the pinnacle of conference play...

...that would be securing the top seed, and with it a first round bye, a guaranteed hosting of the lowest remaining seed from Wild Card weekend and homefield advantage in the AFC Championship game, should they prevail in the Divisional round.

Obviously, having the top seed in the conference is important, but it isn't essential for winning out and making it to the Super Bowl, as the following chronology will attest:

2001 - 2nd seed, beat Oakland in Divisional round and Pittsburgh in the AFC Title game, then beat St. Louis in the Super Bowl

2003 - 1st seed, beat Tennessee in Divisional round, beat Indianapolis in AFC Title game, then beat Carolina in the Super Bowl

2004 - 2nd seed, beat Indianapolis in Divisional round, beat Pittsburgh in AFC Title game, then beat Philadelphia in the Super Bowl

2005 - 4th seed, beat Jacksonville in Wild Card round, lost to Denver in Divisional round

2006 - 4th seed, beat NY Jets in Wild Card round, beat San Diego Chargers in Divisional round, lost to Indianapolis in AFC Title game

2007 - 1st seed, beat Jacksonville in Divisional round, beat San Diego in AFC Title game, lost to NY Giants in Super Bowl

2009 - 3rd seed, lost to Baltimore in Wild Card round

2010 - 1st seed, lost to NY Jets in Wild Card round

2011 - 1st seed, beat Denver in Divisional round, beat Baltimore in AFC Title game, lost to NY Giants in Super Bowl

2012 - 2nd seed, beat Houston in Divisional round, lost to Baltimore in AFC Title game

2013 - 2nd seed, beat Indianapolis in divisional round, lost to Denver in AFC Title game

2014 - 1st seed, beat Baltimore in Divisional round, beat Indianapolis in AFC Title Game, beat Seattle in Super Bowl

For those keeping score, as the first seed under Belichick, the Patriots have advanced to the Super Bowl four times and falling short just once, while as the second seed they are 2-2, and any thing lower than that, they are 0-3 - so as far as the difference between gaining the first seed instead of settling for the second seed, there really isn't that much of a difference, historically.

The Patriots need only to win one of their last two games to secure the top seed in the conference, but would also gain as much with one Cincinnati Bengals' loss in their final two games. There is no combination of wins and losses to be had - and it's pretty well cut and dried. New England has road trips to New York to play the Jets on Sunday, then to Miami to take on the Dolphins next Sunday...

...while the Bengals must travel to Denver for a Monday night affair, but then get to return home to host the lowly Baltimore Ravens to finish out their season. With health, the Bengals have enough to win both of their final two games - but their top quarterback, Andy Dalton, is out for the rest of the regular season with a fractured thumb.

Problem is, both teams they are facing have back up quarterbacks playing as well, Brock Osweiler for the Broncos and Matt Schaub for the Ravens. The Broncos have played well defensively but are finding things difficult in the scoring department on offense, while the Ravens are train wreck on both sides of the ball.

So, it is no guarantee that either team will be able to beat the Bengals, even with A.J. McCarron holding down the fort until Dalton returns for the post-season, so it is most prudent for the Patriots to concentrate on their own business and not allow chance to dictate their destiny - that is, if they even care about their seeding at all.

And that's the real question here: the Patriots have suffered through a record-shattering string of games lost to injury this season, at one point depleting the potency of the offense to where their struggles were not enough to overcome poor special teams play, so that we're looking at a team that is currently 12-2 instead of being undefeated...

...a truly remarkable accomplishment considering the aforementioned injury woes, but with a solid defense that has achieved elite status, New England is in position to control their own destiny.

The best scenario for the Patriots would be to beat the Jets on Sunday to clinch the conference's top seed, then piece together a skeleton crew for the game at Miami, which would have no bearing on anything at all. That would essentially give Belichick's charges a full three weeks to lick their wounds and to fuel up the juggernaut for a Super Bowl run to defend their title.

On the flip-side, however, is the scenario in which the Patriots just go ahead and minimize the snap counts of the starters against the Jets and letting their fortunes rest on back ups, then wait and see what happens between the Bengals and Broncos on Monday night before deciding how to proceed against the Dolphins next Sunday - as it may turn out that resting starters against the Jets could give the Patriots' injured nearly a full calendar month to regain health, should Denver prevail over Cincinnati.

That is, of course, if Belichick even cares about securing the top seed in the conference - because right now his team is sitting pretty with the second seed, while everyone else is scrambling to either improve their seeding, or to even make the playoffs at all - and one of those teams, the Broncos, could actually miss the playoffs if they lose one more game.

So with so much riding on Monday night's game against the Bengals for the Broncos, perhaps it is in Belichick's best interest to take a wait-and-see approach to the top seed, then plan for Miami accordingly.

The Loyalists - Jake And Mike Tackle The Pass Catchers, Denver's Defense

Every week, two of our bloggers pick each others brains like a couple of zombie baboons - today it's Jacob Bertram from Gamegents.com and Michael Hamm from Foxborough Free Press serving up questions for each other in advance of the New England Patriots' Sunday night showdown with the Denver Broncos...

The Broncos' lead the league in sacks with 34, their linebackers and safeties accounting for 23 of that total. Given how the Bills battered Brady by bringing blitz after blitz from the second level and their defensive backfield, should we expect Brady to take the same manner of punishment from Denver?

Jacob: I never expect this team to see the same problem week after week. One more week of all the offensive line unit being together, including the return of Tre Jackson and possibly a return of Seabass to left tackle, should help the protection issues. That being said, James White is going to have to continue being solid in blitz pickup, and Brady is going to have to get rid of the ball quickly. With Amendola possibly out Sunday, either Chris Harper or possibly Keyshawn Martin will have to be that go to guy. That is a very big step to take.

Amendola has been ruled out for Sunday night

Do you assume this week that Malcolm Butler will draw Demarious Thomas or will he see more of Emanuel Sanders, with Ryan and McCourty handling Thomas?

Mike: The damage done to the Patriots through the air - or the lack thereof - has been fairly consistant this season. The opposition's top receiving threat has been more or less shut down and their number two has had limited success - neither really making a mark on the game, so I'm not so sure that either Thomas or Sanders will have the impact on this game, no matter the matchup.

That said, I do expect it to work out just as you have asked, with pretty much the same results as any other game - but in every other game, the opposition has turned to their third and fourth pass catchers, usually a tight end or running back, to inflict damage underneath. Look for plenty of wheels and delayed screens to Hillman and Anderson, with some jailbreak screens targeting Sanders. Their success on these plays will be directly related to how mobile Osweiler is in the pocket.

Owen Daniels is a name to become familiar with. He killed the Patriots in the pattern while a member of the Baltimore Ravens and is having a good year in Denver.

The Broncos' running game has managed to hit 100 yards in only four of their ten games this season, averaging just 53 yards in those games. In contrast, for the games in which they have topped the century mark, their average is a whopping 157 yards per game, including a 170 yard effort against Chicago last Sunday. Against the Patriots top-rated run defense, which Broncos' running game shows up?

Jacob: With Brock Osweiler playing over the injured Peyton Manning this Sunday, I do expect the Patriots defense to sell out on the run and trust their corners and safeties in coverage. Forcing Brock to have to throw the ball early and often, should be a recipe for success. I do believe Anderson and Hillman will be held in check and the Broncos will need to go to the air to consistently move the ball. It will fall upon the arm of Brock in only his second start to beat the Patriots.

If both Amendola and Dobson are unable to suit up this Sunday, will the Patriots be forced to sign a free agent or will they rely in what is already in house?

Mike: This scenario reminds me of when the Patriots went into the 2013 AFC Championship game in Denver, when they had just one healthy starting pass catcher, Julian Edelman, to go along journeyman Austin Collie and a clearly hobbled Dobson, with Michael Hoomanawanui their starting tight end - and they still had an opportunity in the fourth quarter to make a game of it.

The difference this time is that they have Rob Gronkowski at tight end along with Scott Chandler, and on the outside they have Keyshawn Martin and Chris Harper to flank Brandon LaFell. If the Patriots are going to make any sort of a move, I think it would be to bring up Joseph Fauria from the practice squad, so that they can run something perverted like an airborne jumbo package to tax the lack of size in the Broncos' secondary.

Imagine if you will: 6' 6" Gronkowski, 6' 7" Fauria, 6' 8" Chandler and 6' 3" LaFell flooding the underneath zone with one of them penetrating the seam. That could open up a lot of room for Martin, Harper and running back James White. (Note: The Patriots put Dobson on the IR and brought blocking tight end Asante Cleveland up from the practice squad. They have also ruled out Amendola for Sunday night.)

Denver's secondary hasn't allowed a 300 yard passer all season - not even close to it - and their run defense ranks second in the NFL, allowing just 3.5 yards per carry to opposing backs.  The teams that have been most successful against the Broncos this season have one thing in common: They ran the ball and kept running it, regardless of initial success or failure. Do the Patriots have what it takes to gain that 3.5 yard average?

Jacob: I think the Patriots might have no choice but to have a heavy run game plan on Sunday. With Brady short on weapons, their best bet will be to have success on the ground to set up the play action. I don't think Brady dropping back 50 times to throw it to Harper and Martin will do much good against that secondary. Blount and White need to find success on the ground. Which also means the slowly coming back to health offensive line probably needs to have their best game of the season. It will be a struggle, but they need to get the run game moving effectively on game day

Do you see Scott Chandler's role increasing over the last six weeks of the season with the Patriots short on pass catchers?

Mike: You know, I've been disappointed in Chandler's role on the offense, but it isn't all his fault. The play calling on plays that are designed to go to him are of the fade route variety and along the sidelines.  The fade routes have been a disaster for the offense all season, and Chandler is best when running up the seam and on the intermediate crossers.

In goal to go situations, the Patriots have been much more successful with the wheel routes to the backs and on the crossers in the end zone. I don't think there is any question that Chandler needs to have a bigger role in the pattern, but McDaniels needs to be a little more diverse in his play calling to free him up. If he wants jump balls in the end zone, they need to be along the end line, not fades into the corners.

To read all about the Patriots from an old-school twist, be sure to follow us on Foxborough Free Press and on twitter at @ffpblogger, and for a fresh, modern view of the team go to Gamegents.com and follow Jacob on twitter as well at @gamegentsdotcom !

Patriots' Mid-season Forum, Part 1 - Pats roll into the bye winners of five straight

New England Patriots' quarterback Tom Brady shredded the Broncos' defense for 333 yards and four touchdowns

Bill Belichick is quick to tell anyone who questions his methods and personnel moves that he builds his teams to be playing at their best after Thanksgiving - and if Sunday's performance is any indication, his New England Patriots are few weeks ahead of schedule.

Even more scary is the thought that they probably haven't reached their full potential yet.

In a resounding display of will mixed with emerging talent and nearly flawless execution, the Patriots put a letter in the mail to the rest of the National Football League that stated in no uncertain terms that they are every bit the juggernaut that their opponent claimed to be, with quarterback Tom Brady playing the postmaster general and canceling the Denver Broncos like a stamp.

Brady has emerged from the ashes of a 2-2 start to his season like the mythical Phoenix, regenerating himself each week, getting stronger and stronger with each bout of adversity and is suddenly the venerable old gunslinger who still has a few bullets left in the chamber...

...and when he was finished with the Broncos' defense he had fired 53 rounds, finding his target 33 times for 333 yards, standing tall in the pocket, cocking his arm and stepping into some dazzling spirals that cut through the steady tempest blowing through Gillette Stadium just as easily as he did Denver's secondary, finding paydirt four times as his Patriots stomped the Broncos by a score of 43-21.

And after gunning down the Broncos pass defense, if Brady wasn't in the conversation for league Most Valuable Player, he certainly is now.

"Brady, man, on third and long he killed us" Broncos' cornerback Chris Harris said after the game in a somber visitors' locker room. "You can't make any mistakes out there, and he makes you pay when you do."

It wasn't just third and long, and it wasn't just the Broncos, as there were a couple of times that he almost killed his own receivers when he let one of those pigskin projectiles off the chain, stepping into throws in the red zone and firing into the end zone.  Brandon Lafell couldn't quite handle one in the back of the end zone, but Edelman absorbed one for a quick six.

And that has been the difference in the past five weeks, that Brady has had the room in the pocket to step into and follow through on his throws as his offensive line has gelled to the point that that the certain first-ballot Hall of Famer has been able to stand tall, go through his progressions and fire the ball to the open man.

How good has his protection been?  During the dismal four game stretch to start the season Brady was sacked 10 times, hit three times that many and he threw two interceptions as the Patriots went 2-2, but in the five games since the debacle at Kansas City, Brady has been sacked just six times, hit only twice as many times and has thrown one pick, a deflection off Danny Amendola on Sunday night.

The running game is still a work in progress as the road graders are still trying to find the proper push to open up some holes more consistently but, just like Brady on third down, the line makes the hole when they absolutely have to, which is another good sign.

Brady now has 22 touchdown passes on the season and also threw just his third pick, completing nine passes each to both tight end Rob Gronkowski and receiver Julian Edelman, and also six to Brandon Lafell and five to Shane Vereen - and each found the end zone.

So the Patriots' offense is officially the mythical juggernaut, defying all of the negativity among the fan base and the media - but with all kinds of room to get even better, particularly in the running game - though it should be noted that offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels appears to have learned his lesson in regard to abandoning the running game, keeping the play action viable by continuing to call running plays regardless of the level of success.

But what should have all of the six weird little states that comprise the New England region buzzing is Matt Patricia's version of the Nickle Cloud defense that shut down the Bronco's vaunted power running game and made Manning double clutch so often through the game that his shoulder will probably be sore for a couple of days.

The Nickle Cloud features the look of a press nickle with the requisite five defensive backs, but with the other six defensive players in the box featuring a four man front and two linebackers within three yards of the line of scrimmage that gives the appearance of a jailbreak blitz, but when the ball is snapped, only four players are rushing the quarterback while two drop into the middle zone...

...the key being to not to tip off the opposing quarterback as to which of the six are going to be coming and which are going to be dropping into coverage, causing carnage at the point of attack and indecision with the quarterback about who may be lurking underneath to pick off his pass - say, someone like Rob Ninkovich.

On the second play of the second quarter and the Patriots trailing 7-6, Ninkovich was in his standard end of the line defensive end spot, but dropped off the line at the snap of the ball while linebacker Jamie Collins got pressure up the middle in his stead, forcing a quick throw from Manning, who never saw Ninkovich.

Four plays later, Brady found Edelman with an armor-piercing round and the Patriots had a lead they would never relinquish - and when that defense forced the Broncos to punt after a brief possession on the next series, Edelman fielded the kick at the New England 16 yard line, got a big block on the gunner from Danny Amendola, juked to his right where Tim Wright sprung him with a huge seal block on the numbers and 84 yards later the Patriots were up 20-7 and the rout was on.

In fact, the Patriots rattled off 24 consecutive points in the second quarter and took a 20 point lead into the locker room at halftime, and after Manning found tight end Julius Thomas on an 18 yard wobbler to get them within 13 midway through the third period, a Brandon Browner interception of a Wes Welker deflection set up Brady on the Denver ten, where he hit Lafell to seal the game.

The rest of the game was an embarrassment of riches for the Patriots' defense, as while Manning was throwing for a game high 438 yards, more than half of that total came in desperation, the Broncos throwing everything they had at New England's frustrating stoppers for the final quarter-and-a-half - the 260 yards that Manning threw for in what was essentially garbage time coming between the 20's, but the Bronco's would ultimately stall and get no closer to the end zone.

In fact, at one point in the fourth quarter, the Patriots forced a turnover on downs on three consecutive Denver drives, the Broncos going 0-4 on fourth down on the evening - and when added to the fact that Denver went just 3 for 11 on third down conversions, Manning's 20% conversion rate tells one just about all they need to know about the surging Patriots' defense...

...just about, but it would be remiss to ignore the fact that the six-man Cloud was also responsible for stuffing the Broncos' running game, a light box that surrendered only 43 yards on 17 carries to a unit that had been averaging over 120 per game, and that 18 of those came on three carries as the Broncos stayed on the ground to run out the clock and end their misery.

That's 25 yards on 14 carries when the carries really mattered, a stout 1.7 yards against for a New England run defense that had taken its lumps both from the opposing teams and the media in recent weeks - the difference this week being the defensive scheme that dared the Broncos to run the ball against a front six that had received timely reinforcement in the past two weeks.

But we're getting ahead of ourselves.  For the following nine days, we will be visiting each position grouping from the Patriots 53 man roster, comparing it to the bold statements made in our season previews and taking a look ahead at what very well could be the most difficult remaining schedule in the league as the Patriots trudge forward toward the playoffs.

Patriots' resolve, Mother Nature likely to cause Broncos' setback

The interior line of Stork, Wendell and Connolly are the key to a New England victory against the Broncos on Sunday

In its most fundamental form, football is a simple game.

If you can run the ball on offense and stop the run on defense, your odds of winning a football game are incrementally better than a team that relies primarily on the pass.  That said, the Denver Broncos can do it anyway you want.

They can beat you passing.  They can beat you running the ball.  They can beat you on special teams and they can beat you with defense.  Statistically, the Denver Broncos are the best team in the National Football League and their record details the same, so why is it that the Las Vegas sports books have the juggernaut Broncos as just a three-and-a-half point favorite this Sunday?

Covering pass catchers like Denver's Julius Thomas is why Browner is here

It could have something to do with the fact they are playing the New England Patriots.  And also for what Mother Nature has waiting for them.

Much the same as their meeting in Foxborough last November, the forecast for Sunday afternoon calls for intermittent rain and snow showers that will decrease by game time, leaving a raw, gusty wind for both teams to deal with - and while Patriots' quarterback Tom Brady may be the best bad-weather quarterback in league history (certainly he is currently), Broncos' quarterback Peyton Manning has a long, well-documented history of having his problems in blustery weather.

Forget about how cold it's supposed to be - low 30's with a wind chill in the low 20's - because Manning has won in the cold.  What he hasn't been able to do is to win when the northeast wind blows, even with a good running game.

You see, Manning throws what can only be described as a "wounded duck", an ugly, wobbling floater that somehow has enough force behind it that he is deadly accurate with in the right conditions, but in the gusting wind, it becomes the equivalent of a Tim Wakefield knuckleball, and you never really know where those are going to end up.

Revis should play primarily to Manning's right to take away his comfort zone

Case in point: Last November Manning and the Broncos jumped out to a quick 17-0 lead in a driving wind, capitalizing on fumbles by the Patriots' offense on three consecutive drives to open the game that gave Manning excellent field position, and with their defense returning one of those fumbles for a score, Manning was able to turn and hand off to his backs, whose 137 yards more than doubled the Broncos' passing yard total for the first half.

So when the Broncos went into the locker room with a 24-0 lead at the half with nearly 140 yards rushing, many thought the game was over because now all Denver had to do is run the ball and kill the clock, New England's offense not even getting a sniff of the end zone...

...that is until Brady and his laser guided missile launcher of an arm easily sliced through both the wind and the Denver secondary to score 31 consecutive points on five consecutive drives to start the second half.  So now down 31-24 late in the contest, Manning was forced to the air, his first pass toward his tight end Jacob Tamme ended up in the hands of New England corner Aqib Talib.

Of course, Talib was called for defensive holding and Manning dinked and dunked his way down the field - aided by timely runs from Knowshon Moreno - and the Broncos were able to sustain one second half drive to tie the score in a game where the Patriots eventually came away with a 34-31 overtime thriller - a game that, in reality, would have been a resounding Patriots' victory had they been able to hold onto the ball.

Lost in all of this is the fact that when Manning was forced to the air in the second half, he completed only 9 of 20 wobblers for 73 yards, all but 20 of those yards coming on that desperation drive to tie the game - the fact of the matter is that the weather affected Manning more than the Patriots' pass defense did that day, and now he's coming back to Foxborough to face the the same weather, as well as a much improved Patriots' secondary.

Lafell could find roomover the top with the Broncos focused on Gronkowski

That said, Denver also appears to be better, and on both sides of the ball, though certainly not infallible.

The Broncos stumbled out of the gates to begin the season, taking narrow home victories over the Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs before dropping an overtime contest at Seattle, the wins over the Colts and Chiefs not decided until late in the game - but in coming off their bye week after dropping the game to the reigning World Champion Seahawks, John Fox' charges have come out swinging.

In those three games before their bye, Denver looked like anything but a juggernaut as they could neither run the ball effectively, nor stop the run, which naturally lead to their passing game struggling as well as their pass defense.  But the Broncos came out of the bye like a pack of greyhounds chasing the mechanical rabbit and stand at 6-1 after winning four straight...

...blowing out an excellent Cardinals' team at home before struggling with the Jets in New York, returning home and routing the San Francisco 49ers and San Diego Chargers in succession by ramping up their running game by nearly fifty yards per game and reducing the yardage given up on the ground by a pornographic sixty yards per game.

Much of that improvement can be attributed to the fact that in those four games, the Broncos raced out to a big lead and forced their opponents to the air - which with the quality of the Broncos' pass rush was like signing a death warrant for the opposing quarterback, so the first key for the Patriots is to not fall behind and, if at all possible, to score early to keep their running game valid...

Gronkowski should be the Broncos' main focus

...because the Broncos can be run on if a team sticks to their running game, which doesn't happen very often.

Abandoning the run has been a common theme for Broncos' opponents, as none of their foes since the bye have reached the 20 carry plateau, the most yardage gained a mediocre 62 yards by the San Francisco 49ers two weeks ago - and almost all of it straight up the gut, where Denver is surrendering close to four yards per carry.

On the edges, however, teams have had next to no success at all as the speedy Broncos' linebackers set a mean edge that is allowing less than a yard a carry. Those kind of numbers do not bode well for a Patriots' team that don't necessarily have the speed to gain the corner to begin with, but for the Patriots to have a chance against perhaps the most complete team in the National Football league, they are going to have to run the ball, and keep running right up the gut regardless of level of success.

This will be no small task with nose tackle Terrence "Pot Roast" Knighton and his imposing 6' 3", 335 pound frame about as stout a run stopper as the Patriots will encounter this season.  Knighton anchors a line that includes the slightly smaller (6' 2", 315lb) Sylvester Williams as the rush tackle with Derek Wolfe and former Dallas Cowboy DeMarcus Ware as the book ends...

...while Von Miller, perhaps the most dynamic and versatile strong side linebacker in the league, setting the edge and rushing the passer from the left, where it will be tasked to Patriots' right tackle Sebastian Vollmer to slow him down.  One thing that could lean in the favor of New England is if Miller is called upon to help cover New England tight end Rob Gronkowski at times, depending on the formations.

Gray has the bulk and power to have a big game against Denver

Nate Irving and speedy weaksider Brandon Marshall fill out the remainder of the linebacking corps while former Patriot Aqib Talib and Chris Harris are the corners and Rahim Moore and the hated T. J. Ward mop up at safety.  Smallish rookie Bradley Roby has been handling the nickle duties and figures to see a lot of Julian Edelman out of the slot.

In order to implement their power running game against such a talented unit, the Patriots have two choices.  The first is to go heavy with tight ends, presumably Gronkowski and Michael Hoomanawanui at or close to the line and James Develin flanking Brady as the up back, with either first year load Jonas Gray on veteran slashback Shane Vereen toting the rock and seeing how far New England gets by punching the Broncos' front seven in the teeth...

...or by spreading the Broncos out by going with three wide and Gronkowski set as the flanker and Brady working from a single back set, forcing Denver into a nickle - or perhaps even a dime - and running up the gut against a lighter box.

The Patriots don't have to gain four yards a carry to be successful in this scenario, they just have to keep calling running plays, as just the threat of the run should slow down Denver's speedy sack artists long enough for Brady to find his receivers down the field.  This would be the more prudent choice as Patriots' head ball coach Bill Belichick has had success in the past spreading out Denver defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio's defenses.

The only question after that is how do the Broncos defend the Patriots weapons amongst the pass catchers, with the smart money being on Talib and possibly a linebacker or safety drawing Gronkowski, Harris on Brandon Lafell and the aforementioned Roby on Edelman, while Marshall deals with Vereen circling out of the backfield - that or a combination of zone and man coverages.

But make no mistake and be under no delusion, the Patriots must establish their running game to take the Broncos to the mat, and in the interior offensive line of rookie Bryan Stork at the pivot, bracketed by tough as nails veterans Dan Connolly at left guard and Ryan Wendell at right, New England may have found the proper combination to do just that

As for Denver's offense, it is certain that they will try to establish the run against New England's much-maligned run defense, because they really may have no choice.

The bad weather deficiencies that Manning exhibits is not some turgid story line, it is fact.  Forget the cold weather, below 40 and below 30 crap, because that's what it is.  Manning's real nemesis is the wind - and if the tempest comes through the man-made win tunnel that is Gillette Stadium at any speed greater than twenty miles per hour, expect to see the Patriots get very physical with the Broncos' pass catchers and attempt to keep them in a phone booth...

...which wasn't going to be that much of a stretch to begin with, as Manning and his ducks rarely fly much past twenty yards downfield - his average of 85% passes going to his underneath receivers is the greatest percentage in the league - throw a stiff breeze into the equation and what he has going is the equivalent to a salmon swimming upstream with hungry bears lying in wait.

Another thing that the Patriots are no doubt aware of is Manning's penchant for throwing to his right, as 70% of his short throws end up going to that side, which makes left edge-setter Rob Ninkovich one of the big keys to the game

Expect the Patriots to employ a mixture of man coverages off the line with the linebackers holding their ground in a zone read, lurking underneath and ready to knock the chocolate out of any Broncos' receiver that manages to get loose in the scrum - and a scrum is exactly what it will be.

With Manning handicapped by Mother Nature and being pressured up the middle by a combination of Big Vince Wilfork, Chris Jones and either Casey Walker or newly signed Alan Branch, and with Patriots' cornerback Darrelle Revis holding down the right side of the field and Ninkovich pressuring from the same, Peyton will be forced out of his comfort zone...

...whether that means enough for him to make a mistake or two to the left remains to be seen, but it worked like a charm last November, when Logan Ryan had one of his best games as a pro in picking off Manning on a short dump off to Eric Decker, and had three other passes defended.

Decker is gone, replaced by speedster Emmanuel Sanders - and Ryan will likely get the call on him off the line, while prudence dictates that Revis cover whomever lines up on the right - most likely Demaryius Thomas - to ensure that Manning won't have it easy going to that side, and a well-rested Kyle Arrington hammers aging slot receiver Wes Welker as well as adding a physical presence in run support.

All of these matchups void each other out, which leaves the Broncos' most lethal weapon, tight end Julius Thomas, matched up with big, violent corner Brandon Browner - and if Browner can get his jam on with Thomas off the line and keep him in the proverbial phone booth, that will disrupt Manning's timing with him and perhaps give the pass rushers a chance to get to Manning.

The trio of Wilfork, Jones and Walker/Branch should be enough to counter Denver's running game up the middle and with the defense collapsing on anything going right, the onus falls on rookie defensive end Zach Moore to set a solid edge to the left, so that either linebacker Akeem Ayers or Jonathan Casillas can blow up screens and handle running back Ronnie Hillman swinging out into the flat.

Sound complicated?  It's really not so much, as both teams rely on fundamentally sound execution and, with all things being equal, so are the two combatants.  But everything isn't going to be equal if Mother Nature shows up as anticipated, and if that indeed happens, it gives New England a big edge.