Showing posts with label Logan Ryan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Logan Ryan. Show all posts

Thursday, March 16, 2017

Butler, Agent's Impatience Could Mean Patriots' Secondary Looking Much Different

Malcolm Butler was Pro Football Focus's number three-rated coverage cornerback in the entire National Football League last season, and with him in the lineup, the New England Patriots' secondary was rated the third-best in the National Football League.

Coincidence?  Hardly, but one also has to take into account that free safety Devin McCourty earned the title of top coverage safety in the league, while centerfielder Duron Harmon ranks second only to Seattle's Earl Thomas as the best single-high safety in professional football - not to mention that erstwhile slot corner Logan Ryan graded out as a top-ten coverage man at that spot.

But while Ryan has moved on to play with McCourty's twin brother in Tennessee, the remainder of the aforementioned top-three secondary is intact, with former Buffalo Bill Stephon Gilmore adding his press-man ability to that mix, a move that was underwhelming Patriots' fans, given the money he was offered and the potential backlash in the locker room.

That backlash comes in the form of Butler, who has been rumored by one source to be terribly frustrated by the Gilmore contract, and said to be looking forward to working with Gilmore by another.  It all has all the sounds of either a megalo-maniacal agent gone rogue or a collective of mother hen beat writers trying to generate page views - or both.

At the center of all of the madness is Huntsville, Alabama attorney Derek Simpson, who considers being a sports agent a hobby and a part-time job and whose only client is Butler.  The two have formed a fast friendship, which is fortunate for Simpson, because if he didn't have Butler as a client, he would have lost his certification as an agent this coming summer as NFL rules specify that an agent must have at least one client in the NFL for three consecutive years.

Simpson once gave Butler some advice, telling him to take two post-it notes and fix them to his bathroom mirror - one had the number "3" written on it to represent the average length, in years, of an NFL career, and the other had the floating decimal "78.8", which represents the percentage of former NFL players who eventually file for bankruptcy.

Sage advice to be sure, but Butler's path to the big time dictated that he had to start small, as in rookie minimum salary, and work his way into a bigger contract that could be the start of life-long financial security, a start that began with the Patriots placing a first-round tender on the restricted free agent, a marker that was scheduled to pay him just shy of $4 million in 2017.

That may have been enough for Butler had the Patriots not opened the vault for Gilmore, who earned his bones through five years in Buffalo as a first-round draft pick who had to wait for the Bills to pick up his fifth-year option in 2016 before he made any heavy money.

And that's the rub.  Rookie salaries are capped in the NFL, and depending on where a player is drafted, the cap is either higher or lower - and as the tenth overall pick in the 2012 NFL draft, Gilmore was capped at a four-year total of $12 million, fully guaranteed, with most of that ($7.2 million) locked up in a signing bonus which made him an instant millionaire.

Last season on the fifth-year option, which is available only to players who were selected in the first round of the draft, Gilmore made transition tag money, totaling just over $11 million, all the while holding out of OTA's in protest of not being signed to a long-term extension by the Bills.  As it turns out, the Bills offered Gilmore a five-year deal worth $10.5 million per season, but he turned it down, wanting "Josh Norman" money...

...and while he fell short of Josh Norman's contract, what he got from New England was close enough to what the Bills offered him to wonder if Gilmore didn't just want to get out of the losing culture in Bufalo.

Lesson being, although he bitched and railed about money, Gilmore had to wait to get the contract he desired, while Butler and his agent seem to not want to take things as they come - which is unfortunate, as a Butler-Gilmore-Rowe trifecta in the standard nickle package probably would have been the top unit in all of football.

But pending a trade being worked out between the Patriots and Saints, the question looms: what's next for the Patriots' secondary?

Assuming that Butler will be gone and knowing that Ryan already is, the top two corner spots will go to Gilmore and Eric Rowe, twin 6' 1" press-man corners with deep speed - though Rowe, a former college safety,  is equally impressive in zone and is better in run support than Gilmore.  Who plays in the single slot is up in the air, but after a disastrous rookie campaign, Cyrus Jones could be the man.

Jones had his issues with ball security and decision making in the return game, fumbling four times and inexplicably failing to dodge a bouncing punt that hit him in the leg - but early trouble seems to be a staple of Jones' game, as are miraculous recoveries.  He's been a cornerback for just three years - his last two seasons in college after making the transition from wide receiver and his rookie season in Foxborough - and has always embraced adversity...

...and lord knows he had plenty of that last season, so Patriots' fans are about to witness either a complete turnaround as a slot corner or a colossal bust.  Beyond Jones is his college nemesis from Auburn, Jonathan Jones, who has blazing speed (4.33) and specializes in -you guessed it - press-man coverage and does his best work in a phone booth, making him a perfect slot man despite his demure (5' 8") frame.

There's also Justin Coleman who has shown promise in limited action, but if none of these three make the nut, the Patriots could spend mid-round draft capital on a corner in the draft.  Free agency?  Well, three of the top corners remaining have played for the Patriots in the recent past as there's no reason to believe the team is interested in bringing any of them back.

The Patriots spent a second round pick on Darius Butler back in 2009, but was waived tow seasons later and after an initial stop in Carolina eventually found a home in Indianapolis.  Sterling Moore had his 15 minutes of fame as a safety, stripping a potential game-winning touchdown out of Baltimore's Lee Evan's hands, helping to send New England to a Super Bowl...

...and Darrelle Revis won a Super Bowl with the Patriots in 2014 - but while many Patriots' fans are ecstatic about Revis beating the rap and becoming available on the open market, the fact of the matter remains that both Malcolm Butler and Brandon Browner had more success in Matt Patricia's  defense down the stretch than the fading Revis did.

He has since put on about 25 pounds and at age 32 is looking for a switch to safety to try and revive and extend his career, but the price tag is too steep even if he was still the owner of the mythical "Revis Island', and he's made a direct pitch to play for his hometown Steelers, putting the Rooney's on the spot.

In short, there are no decent options on the open market other than Gilmore's battery mate in Buffalo, slot corner Nickell Robey-Coleman, who was recently released by the Bills.  Familiarity between Gilmore and Robey-Coleman wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, and would give the Patriots a young (25), coachable slot corner with four years of experience in a phone booth.

But, of course, this is all dependent on Butler leaving for New Orleans as seems destined to happen - whether it does or not, Patriots' fans should know better than to doubt the team building skills of Belichick.

Thursday, March 9, 2017

Patriots Free Agents - Thursday's Updated Facts And Rumors

An up-to-date listing of the Patriots' impending free agent movement and rumors, as of 3/8/17:

Malcolm Butler:  In a shocking development, it has been revealed that the Patriots are considering an offer from the New Orleans Saints to acquire wide receiver Brandon Cooks in exchange for Butler. It's not that surprising to see something like this emerge as the Patriots tried to finagle the lightning fast Cooks from the Saints a couple of weeks ago, but were unwilling to pay New Orleans' asking price of a first-round draft pick.

New England landing Stephone Gilmore and signing him to a rich (read, Hightower money) five year contract and Belichick's penchant for unloading contract year players to obtain maximum value for them lends plenty of stick-to-it-iveness to the report.  That said, if the season were to start today, the starting corners would be Gilmore and mid-season pickup Eric Rowe.

What makes this rumored deal even more enticing is the fact that Cooks is signed through 2018 on a very cap-friendly contract, and has the ability to take the lid off of defenses with his 4.33 speed and sure hands.

The rest of today's free agency developments:
Three-tech defensive tackle Branch (97) is back in the fold

Alan Branch:  Considered a must-sign, the Patriots did just that on Thursday, inking the behemoth defensive tackle to a two year, incentive-laden contract that is reported to be worth "up to" $6 million annually.  Great news for the middle of the Patriots defensive line.

Logan Ryan:  Add the Steelers, Bears and Lions to teams pursuing Ryan, whose commodity has risen substantially the closer we get to the start of the league year.  With the Patriots uncharacteristically ponying up $14 million a year for the hot and cold former Bills corner Stephone Gilmore, it appears Ryan's days in New England are done.

Duron Harmon:  According to several sources, the Patriots are working on a long-term deal to retain Harmon, whose presence would solidify a secondary that has been upgraded (depending on your point of view) by Belichick, and would certainly keep his preferred "Big Nickel" alignment in play for the foreseeable future.  This was expected, as we reported yesterday, "he has more upside and value with the Patriots than just about any other team, and shouldn't command a lot on the open market."

Update: Harmon has signed a four-year, $20 million contract to remain with the Patriots.

Martellus Bennett:  The list of teams enticed by Bennett has grown to include the Raiders, 49ers and Jaguars after being linked to Giants, Jaguars and possibly Detroit and Miami as well.  The potential bidding war and Bennett's comments about being intrigued with playing in northern California mixed with the Patriots' signing of the Colts' Dwayne Allen means that his days in New England ore over.

Dont'a Hightower:  The Patriots have had what Hightower calls "Positive talks" in retaining the Pro Bowl linebacker, but interest is rumored to be high among the Lions, Dolphins and Browns. Tennessee has reportedly entered the sweepstakes for his services and the fact that he posted an Instagram pic from Nashville last evening lends credence to their interest...and his.

Michael Floyd: Currently serving a 120-day jail sentence, the biggest loser in the rumored Butler-for-Cooks deal would be Floyd, as he was on shaky ground to begin with after being left off the Patriots active roster after a terrible divisional round performance where he appeared to run improper routes.

No updates for the following players:

Cameron Fleming:  Huge "sixth lineman" and restricted free agent was tendered at his original fourth round level, which is worth nearly $2 million in 2017 if not signed by another team.  If he is, the Patriots will receive that team's fourth round selection.

Jaball Sheard: No news on the defensive end.  He could be considered damaged goods by being internally suspended by Belichick in mid-season, driving his market price down.

Chris Long:  Announced via Twitter that he would not be re-signing with New England because he wants a bigger role than Belichick can promise.  That announcement, along with the uncertainty over Sheard and the aging of stalwart Rob Ninkovich could potentially leave the Patriots in desperation along the edges.  Look for the team to pursue a free agent or go high in the draft for an edge player.

Barkeveous Mingo:  Rumors all over the place about Mingo, who played just 54 snaps for New England last season. Perhaps some team has visions of him being the explosive pass rusher he was in college, something that he showed in the preseason with the Patriots, but never materialized in the regular season as he was relegated to primarily special teams.

LeGarrette Blount:  His annual foray into free agency will probably not garner him much more than what he made last season, so there is a chance he could return to New England on a similar deal.

Brandon Bolden:  No news out of Foxborough on the special teams core player.


Saturday, February 4, 2017

Super Bowl 51 - Line Rotation, Physical Secondary Winning Recipe For Patriots' Defense

Chris Long says he would have played this year for five bucks.

Of course, that's against the collective bargaining agreement that dictates Long's minimum salary for the 2016 NFL season for a player of his advanced tenure - he is in his ninth season - would have been just shy of a million clams, but his words resonate, especially with New England Patriots' fans.

After being unceremoniously dumped by the Rams in mid-February, Long immediately made it known that he would only sign with a Super Bowl contender to weed out the suckers, then visited Atlanta, Detroit and Washington before seeing Patriots' head ball coach Bill Belichick about a job a month after his release, ultimately signing with New England the next day.

His dream came true, as the Patriots have indeed made it to the big game - and now, it's his turn to make the sort of big-game impact that the Patriots envisioned for him when signing him to a one-year $2.4 million contract.

What kind of big-game impact? Simply, to set the edge.  If the Patriots can accomplish that on Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons, it will have been worth every penny paid to Long, not to mention the entire top-ranked defense New England brings into Houston's NRG Stadium for Super Bowl 51.
Ryan is the Patriots' most physical corner

The Atlanta Falcons running backs feed off the edges, averaging well over five yards per carry overall, and owning a particularly stout six yards per carry running to the right behind tackle Ryan Schraeder, often in conjunction with Alex Mack, who is perhaps the best pulling center in the league, anchored in the scheme by road grading right guard Chris Chester.

How important is the ground game to the Falcons?  In four games this season when their opponent has held them to under 100 yards rushing, the Falcons are 0-4.  In games in which they have achieved 100 yards rushing or more, they are 11-1.  Obviously, stopping the run is paramount to the Patriots' defensive success.

But where the Patriots must exploit with their pass rush is over that right guard position, where Chester has struggled all season, allowing nearly a third of Atlanta's sack total on the season.  The Patriots must be relentless in attacking Chester, as he tends to get high with his pad level as the game progresses and he tires and can be walked back into the passer.

Mack is more athletic than stout, and tends to do his best work moving forward and also laterally, pulling into the gap between guard and tackle and taking on the linebacker on the second level - but when dropping into his stance as a pass protector, he can be moved back into the pocket as well.

In fact, the Falcons allowed Ryan to be sacked at least twice in a game in all but one contest in the regular season, and ranks in the bottom-third of the league in sack percentage. The caveat is that there was only one team that they did not give up a sack to, and that was the Packers two weeks ago in the NFC Championship game - though solace can be taken by New England fans that the Packers generate next to no pressure up the gut...

...which is exactly where the Falcons' offensive line is most vulnerable, and also where the Patriots have the depth to take advantage of the chink in their armor - and the Patriots will likely be in their Big Nickel alignment for the majority of the game, which gives them the advantage in two different ways.

First, because the alignment calls for a third safety to take the place of a linebacker - usually from the weak side - it gives New England the ability to run with eight defenders in the box and still maintain coverages as Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung are adept at taking on players coming out of the slot and out of the backfield and are loads in run support.

Secondly, it gives them the ability to disguise coverages and rush packages, meaning that the Falcons will have to account for the entire defense.  It is typical to see as many as ten defenders within a couple of yards of the line of scrimmage, and Belichick has shown that he is not shy in sending a corner or a safety on a corner blitz or dropping a defensive end into coverage.

Point being, the opposing offense typically has no idea who will be dropping into coverage and who is rushing the passer - and, more importantly, where the pass rush will engage the protection.

This is where things get tricky for Atlanta.  They will be facing a defense that has not only the best blitzing linebacker in the NFL in Dont'a Hightower, but also a group of very large and very quick defensive ends who easily reduce down to rush from the three-tech (outside shoulder of the guard) or even the one-tech (inside shoulder) to split the gaps and force the Falcons to keep one of their dangerous backs in to pass block.

But to accomplish this against Atlanta, they will have to do it with a mixture of three and four-man rush packages that sprinkles in blitzes in select spots.

With a standard four-man front, wide bodies Alan Branch (6' 6", 350 pounds), Malcom Brown (6' 2", 320) and rookie Vincent Valentine (6' 2", 320) rotation form a formidable two-man rotation that has been terrific against the run - and while the trio have recorded but a handful of sacks this season from the defensive tackle positions, that really isn't what they are out there for against the pass.

What they are out there for is to collapse the pocket into the quarterback's face, forcing the opponent to double team one or both, leaving an entrance for Hightower to race through or for their defensive ends to exploit on an inside stunt...

...especially with second-year emerging star Trey Flowers, who at 6' 2" and 270 pounds is nearly a spitting image of Hightower, but with unmatched strength and leverage at the point of attack.  Flowers leads the Patriots in sacks and pressures. Fellow defensive ends Jabaal Sheard, Rob Ninkovich, and Long join Flowers in yet another situational rotation on the edges, that pays huge benefits late in games.

The rotation has many benefits, with being fresh for crunch time the main profit, all the while maintaining integrity on the edges, which is important given the running styles of both Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, the Falcons' one-two punch in both the ground game and through the air.

Freeman is a complete back who is equally dangerous in the pattern as he is on the ground, while Coleman is a live wire with speed to burn.  Freeman is a patient runner who waits for his blocking to form a gap, while Coleman has a tendency to run up the backs of his blockers - but both are better on the edges and will likely look to gain the corner on the Patriots rather than deal with Branch and Brown.

Coleman has a little Dion Lewis to his game, a speedster with elusiveness in space and a seriously filthy jump cut that helped him become one of the best backs in the league in gaining yards after the catch - but as explosive as he is, he is not one that is going to break a lot of tackles, so a zone containment by a linebacker like Kyle Van Noy would probably do the trick.

What the coverages on the backs have to avoid is playing a trailing technique across the middle of the second level, because both backs have the ability to separate quickly after the catch, leading to big chunks of yardage...

...which is what Falcons' quarterback Matt Ryan will be looking for not only when he throws to his backs, which he does on average about six times per game, but also when he goes downfield to his trio of outstanding receivers.  Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel account for exactly half of Matty Ice's targets this past season, a number that continues to trend in the playoffs.

Jones has it all: size (6' 3", 220 pounds), speed (4.39), will go over the middle and isn't afraid to block downfield - but there are two things that the Patriots' secondary may be able to take advantage of. Jones tends to wilt in the face of physical play off the line, becoming frustrated if the corner is able to manhandle him which, with his size and explosiveness off the line, doesn't happen frequently.

But Jones is also dealing with two sprained ligaments in his right big toe as well as a mid-foot issue believed to be a sprained ligament as well, and while it didn't look to be an issue in the NFC Championship game - indeed, he wasn't even listed on the final injury report on Friday - it remains to be seen how he reacts to being punked at the line.

Which is going to happen.

The Patriots may have the most physical collection of defensive backs in the NFL, and also the most sure-tackling group as well, which allows them some latitude in the number of covers that they can employ on the field at any one time.

How much latitude?  That's up to Belichick, but it's certainly within the realm of possibility that New England flips the traditional script and goes with a back seven - or even eight - throwing in some coverages that have elements of cover 2, some that have elements of cover four, some that have elements of both.

That's the beauty of the brand of Big Nickel that the Patriots profess, as they can employ both at the same time.  The cover two, which is essentially the bend-but-don't-break defense that the Patriots generally play, requires two deep safeties each responsible for half of the field over the top while the corners underneath engage their mirrors with man coverage...

...while the cover four, essentially a prevent-style of defense, calls for two safeties and two corners each taking a quarter of the deep zone to prevent long gainers through the air - but when combined, it splits the field in half.  On the strong side (Where the tight end lines up, usually on the right side of the formation) the team will employ a cover four look, meaning that on that half of the field there will be four defenders covering a quarter of that half of the field.

On the weak side, a single safety plays over the top of a corner, who will release his receiver to the safety while trailing the play. New England is in unique position to play this hybrid "Cover six", because they have two quality free safeties who can handle the deep zones and allowing the strong safety to cover the sideline zone with enough forward momentum to break for the flat in the event of a run or screen play.

That leaves two corners in the underneath zones where, like the aforementioned strong safety, they can break on the run or screen simply by releasing their man responsibilities to the safeties.  In this scenario, the Patriots would rush three and rely on their standard two-linebacker look to remain stout against the run and to knock the snot out of shallow crossers.

The beauty of this hybrid look is that it allows for the corners to play up on the line so that they can get physical with Atlanta's large receivers.

That said, who covers whom?

That depends on who you ask, but don't bother asking Bill Belichick or anyone else in the organization because, rightly so, that is an institutional secret.  But a look at the Patriots' defensive backs can give us some ideas.

Logan Ryan grades out as the Patriots most physical corner, and covers bigger receivers well - as he proved in covering Sanu when the big possession receiver was in Cincinnati, and in shutting down Eric Decker with the Broncos.  Ryan's issue involves speed, which he lacks, so he would do well in dealing with Sanu again.

Malcolm Butler has some speed and has shown exceptional grit in covering bigger receivers as well - his mugging job on Seattle's Jermaine Kearse in the Super Bowl two years ago a prime example, and will no doubt draw Jones at select times during the game, but the intriguing player in this scenario is in-season pick up Eric Rowe.

A free safety his entire football career, Rowe switched to cornerback in his senior season at Utah to help out a thin corner corps, so he's been playing the position for three years, which means that he obviously had some growing pains to deal with, but in a hybrid look, Rowe has the same size-speed ratio - 6' 1", 2210 pounds, 4.45 in the 40 - as under-rated centerfielder Duron Harmon.

That essentially gives New England four quality safeties - Rowe, Harmon, Patrick Chung and Devin McCourty - in which to run their hybrid-big nickel look, and it's not beyond the realm of imagination that the Patriots combining zone and man elements that allow for the corners to be physical at the line, knowing that they have their backs covered by an excellent group of safeties.

There are no guarantees, of course, but in theory, it works.

The Falcons have virtually no production out of their tight ends, though the two they play are certainly capable in the passing game and should not be ignored, so there wouldn't be a huge chance of one of them splitting the safeties up the seam - which is a tangible danger of combining coverage schemes.  But in the end, Atlanta has to follow the same rules as every other team in the NFL, which means that they have only five players eligible to make plays with the ball...

...and when combined with all of the talent and experience on the top-rated Patriots' defense - and especially with head ball coach Bill Belichick exuding never-before-seen confidence in his pressers and general attitude, Patriots' fans have every reason to feel a fifth victory parade coming on...

Monday, January 16, 2017

Patriots Grind Out Win Over Texans; Face Steelers In AFC Title Tilt

Normally, when your quarterback completes less than half of his passes, your running game is bogged down and you turn the ball over three times deep in your own territory you are going to lose the game.

Fortunately for the New England Patriots, they are the New England Patriots.

Quarterback Tom Brady threw two interceptions and passing back Dion Lewis coughed up the football twice, losing one fumble, setting up the visiting Houston Texans inside the Patriots' 35 yard line three times - but true to the bend-but-don't-break philosophy on the other side of the ball, the Patriots' defense minimized the damage by allowing only field goals on two of the three instances...

...and then creating three second half turnovers of their own while forcing the Texans' offense into punts on nine other possessions, allowing just a lone field goal in the second half as New England pulled away for a 34-16 Divisional round victory at Gillette Stadium on Saturday night.

What makes the Patriots the Patriots is their ability to minimize the effect of negative plays and level the playing field by resetting to their default fundamentals, which enables them to survive their opponent's best shot, then regain the momentum and press their will until the opposition succumbs.

They do it every single game, and against Houston on Saturday they delivered the perfect example.

How the Texans delivered their best shot was more about trying to capitalize on New England mistakes and beating Brady like he stole something - which is the best that they could hope for, given the disparity between their offense, which is very average, and their top-ranked defense - and with their defense is how they delivered their best shot.

Taking a play from the Patriots' defensive playbook, the Texans aligned their cat-quick defensive ends over center David Andrews, Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus getting free runs at Brady to force him into his worst performance of the season, at the same time disguising their underneath coverages to try and take advantage of the pressure and forcing errant throws.

As a result, Houston was able to pick off Brady twice over the middle, both on tipped balls.  The pressure applied by Clowney and company was relentless - sacking Brady twice but nailing him right in the grill another dozen times - forcing Brady to heave the football into contested situations down the field which, fortunately, his receivers won more times than not.

That is not typical of Brady or the Patriots, who prefer their offense to be methodical in lulling their opponents into a coma, but as the game wore on, it became clear that Houston's top-ranked defense was prepared for that contingency, leaving offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels no choice but to take chances to move the ball.

It was a brilliant scheme by Texans' defensive coordinator Romeo Crennell that kept the Texans within striking distance of the Patriots most of the evening, but his effort was matched blow for blow by New England defensive coordinator Matt Patricia's game plan, which concentrated on protecting the edges and the sidelines and forcing the Texans' offense to funnel everything inside the hash marks - essentially taking away two-thirds of the field.

The schemes were polar opposites. Crennell's charges sought to limit the Patriots' offense by taking away the middle of the field where Brady and his receivers like to operate. As a result, the Patriots had next to no initial success on the ground, and Brady found himself running for his life outside of the pocket, being brutalized by Houston's violent pass rush.

As dictated by the aforementioned circumstances, the Texans had to play a nearly flawless game and force the Patriots into mistakes to have any chance of winning - and for just over one half of play, they did just that - but thanks to the Patriots' defense and some nifty work by Lewis, Houston still trailed the Patriots despite dominating nearly all aspects of the game.

Lewis took a 12 yard swing pass to the house to open the scoring midway through the first period, then after the Texans' Nick Novak booted a 33 yard field goal - aided immensely by an a personal foul on New England cornerback Eric Rowe that gave life to a possession that had stalled - Lewis took the ensuing kickoff right up through Houston's kick coverage, going 98 yards to make the score 14-3, and the rout was on.

But that was when the Texans started harassing Brady.

A slightly overthrown Brady pass to receiver Michael Floyd was tipped right into the hands of trailing corner A.J. Bouye, who returned the interception to the New England 27 yard line, but the Patriots' defense held them to another Novak field goal, seemingly dodging a bullet - but Lewis fumbled the ensuing kickoff at the New England twelve, and two plays later Texans' quarterback Brock Osweiler found tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz wide open in the end zone, and suddenly the rout was cancelled as Houston cut New England's lead to one point.

A Stephen Gostkowski field goal increased the Patriots' lead to four going into the room at halftime, then shortly after Brady found passing back James White on a 19 yard wheel route to boost the New England lead to eleven - then subsequent scores by Lewis and Gostkoswski, a one yard run and 43 yard field goal, respectively, finally ended the Houston threat...

...an interception by New England corner Logan Ryan setting up the Lewis touchdown run and picks by fellow Rutgers' alums Devin McCourty and Duron Harmon helping to stymie Texans' drives in the second half.

Aside from the "Rutgers Three" pulling off a rare thieving act, the defense as a whole played as well as can be expected, given the opportunities the Patriots' offense handed the Texans.

The 181 passing yards represent the fourth time this season that New England as limited the opposing offense to less than 200 yards passing, and the second time they've held the Texans under that standard in 2016 - and the 285 total yards produced by Houston counted as the seventh time New England's defense has held an opponent under 300 yards of total offense, and, again, the second time this season against the Texans.

And, just for good measure, the sixteen points surrendered by the Patriots' defense is right in line with the average points they gave up per game in the regular season which, of course, was tops in the National Football League.

The worry coming into this game is that the Patriots would be rusty enough after having a bye week to affect their execution, leading to mistakes that the Texans were well-prepared to capitalize on - and they did, to the tune of 13 points off of three turnovers, not to mention the drive-extending penalties on defense and the drive-killing errors on offense.

It could have been worse, had New England not been playing the offensively challenged Texans and been matched up with a team like - well, like the Pittsburgh Steelers, who bring their high-octane machine to Foxborough next Sunday night to play for the right to go to the Super Bowl, and to make that many mistakes against a team with an offense of that quality would likely turn out far differently...

...unless Lewis duplicated his positive plays, in which he accounted for three of the Patriots three touchdowns, becoming the first player in NFL history to score in the passing game, the running game and on a kick return in the same game.

"I did ok," the humbled Lewis said after the game, adding, "There are some things I could do a lot better on, like ball security - because I put my team in jeopardy...I've got a lot of work to do, and that's what most of my focus is going to be on."

It is exactly that kind of team-first mentality that makes the New England Patriots the New England Patriots.

Monday, October 3, 2016

Bills Catch Patriots Short-Handed, Literally; Record Rare Shutout


The New England Patriots are flat out of quarterbacks.

At least, they were on Sunday afternoon, when the obviously damaged rookie signal caller Jacoby Brissett gave it the old college try what with a makeshift tape job around his injured thumb that fooled no one and an offensive game plan that rivaled Ben & Jerry's ice cream for vanilla content - but a college try wasn't going to work against a professional football team...

...even against the Buffalo Bills, who hadn't had a win against the Patriots that was significant in the AFC East standings in five years and hadn't shut them out in a baker's dozen, and certainly not with a series of play calls in the first half that made one think that offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels had Herman Boone in his headset, running the veer and assuring boy wonder that it was just like
Quarterback Jacoby Brissett coughs up one of five Patriots' fumbles
novocaine, give it time and it always works.

The defensive game plan was a little tougher to figure out.

One would think that with Buffalo's deep threat Sammy Watkins on the shelf, that the Patriots would have concentrated with stopping the run and keeping quarterback Tyrod Taylor in the pocket, not allowing him to the wings where he does much of his best work - and it's not as if Taylor set the world on fire against New England, but he really didn't need to.

Buffalo artfully mixed the run and the pass to their advantage as New England appeared to play full coverage down the field to eliminate speed merchant Marquis Goodwin from the equation - presumably to force Buffalo to have to grind out yardage and use up time off the clock - and while that goes against every tenet of defensive football, the impact of the plan would have been successful had the Patriots gotten anything out of the offense at all...

...as confirmed not only by the meager point that Buffalo managed, they won 16-0, but also by the fact that they managed only nine possessions - and after the initial surge to start the game in which they built a thirteen point lead on a touchdown and two field goals on their first three drives, the Patriots' held the Bills to just three more points while forcing four punts.

It makes a certain sort of sense, an overmatched team playing a bend-but-don't-break style of defense, giving up yardage at a clip of four yards per play and making critical stops on third down, the relying on your special teams to flip field position to give your offense a chance to put enough points on the board to counter. 

If it works, you're a genius and if it doesn't - well - you get what we saw on Sunday afternoon.

Ideally, the defense did what they had to do even though it didn't play to their strengths, but the special teams - especially the kick return teams - were atrocious and the offense was so imbalanced that the Bills were ready for everything New England tried to do, and even when the Patriots got something positive going, penalties murdered their momentum.

The limitations to the forced game plan eschewed balance, though the final numbers - 27 passing plays compared to 22 running plays - are deceiving.  The Patriots totaled just 17 offensive plays in the first half, with 14 of those handoffs.  The numbers reversed in the second half as Brissett, bad thumb and all, threw the ball 24 times and handed off just eight times.

The disparity between the number of plays run by each team, 71-47 in favor of Buffalo, wasn't as glaring considering that the Patriots were more efficient with their plays - gaining nearly a yard-and-a-half more per play than Buffalo - and also considering that the Patriots had a whopping 139 yards erased by penalty...

...ninety of that on the first offensive play of the game on what was deemed to be offensive pass interference on receiver Chris Hogan, calling back a beautiful catch and run in the flat by Julian Edelman, and apparently deflating the Patriots' offense at the same moment.

How badly deflated? well, considering that the Patriots had just one first down at halftime and converted just once on third down the entire game in twelve tries, it is safe to assume that New England blew their first half wad on that first play from scrimmage. 

The only thing that New England's offense seemed to have going for it was their play calling on the first play of possessions, gaining a first down seven different times, four of those coming via Brissett finding tight end Martellus Bennett, who had something of a career day, his 109 receiving yards representing just his fourth 100 yard receiving day and his 58 yard catch and run in the second quarter the longest of his career.

The only other thing that was working was the running game, Patriots' power back LeGarrette Blount rumbling for 54 yards on 13 carries until McDaniels all but abandoned the ground attack in the second half after featuring it almost exclusively in the first half - obviously, the balance was there for New England overall, but it turned out to be a tale of two halfs with no balance in the play calling otherwise.

For all of the grumbling, the defense played decently, giving up 16 points and an acceptable 248 passing yards despite being on the field for just shy of 40 minutes.

Still, the scapegoat for the defense in this scenario was cornerback Logan Ryan, who drew underneath coverages on tight ends and running backs and, on a few less-than-memorable occasions, on the Bills' speedy wideouts, but the fact of the matter is that Ryan, Justin Coleman and even Malcolm Butler gave up key receptions that extended Buffalo drives.

On third down, the Bills were able to convert seven times out of 15 attempts, with Ryan and Butler giving up one a piece and Coleman two, but where the Bills were really successful was on second down, where they were able to pick up half of their twenty-four on the game, many of them on second and long plays.

The fact that Ryan was playing what was essentially the role of a strong safety spoke to the weird game plan, as the three safety Big Nickle look that has been successful against the likes of Arizona, Miami and Houston was abandoned in favor of a standard nickle, with Ryan and Justin Coleman being abused by the quick Buffalo receivers...

...and combined with Jabaal Sheard and Chris Long assigned to funnel everything towards the middle of the field, the Bills were able to run off left tackle - where Sheard or Long would have been otherwise - for a significant portion of their rushing yardage.

The good news for the defense is that they adjusted well after spotting Buffalo their thirteen point lead. In that onslaught to start the game, Buffalo picked up 244 of their 378 total yards for the game, allowing just 83 passing yards in the second half to go along with 51 rushing yards, a terrific effort despite being n the field for so long in the first half.

It goes without saying that having a healthy quarterback would have made a huge difference for New England's offense - either a healthy Brissett or Jimmy Garoppolo would have been enough to at least match what Buffalo could muster - but now the Patriots have back their regular starting signal caller as Tom Brady's suspension is over and he's set to take over, tanned, rested and ready.

Friday, July 29, 2016

Reloading The Musket, Part 8 - Cyrus "The Virus" Jones Completes Elite Patriots' Secondary

His nickname might be Clamp Clampington now, but once opposing receivers get a load of rookie cornerback Cyrus Jones, they are going to call him something far more foreboding.

Say hello to Cyrus the Virus.

Far from being the murderous thug portrayed in the cliche'-filled film Con Air, Jones is loved by teammates, loathed by receivers and is the maker of highly circumspect signal callers. Typical of New England Patriots' cornerbacks in that he has less than ideal measurables - giving up several inches to today's taller receivers - Jones makes up for that with excellent technique, ball skills and run support.

All of the Patriots defensive backs are competitive, but none of them except Jones could be considered downright antagonistic. Known for his aggression against receivers on the field and his combative tweets on social media, Jones has actually toned down his reaction to adversity and has been able to mask his on-field emotions to a degree...

...which is fortunate, because growing up even missing a tackle was cause for Jones to become inconsolable. "Some people on the outside couldn't understand. 'Why is he crying? Why does he want the ball all the time?" said his father, Cyrus Sr. "Hopefully now, they can see why."

The coaches at Alabama saw why, as did opposing quarterbacks and receivers and so, apparently, did Patriots' head ball coach and defacto general manager Bill Belichick who used top draft capital on Jones, bringing him in to join the likes of Malcolm Butler, Logan Ryan, Devin McCourty, Pat Chung and Duron Harmon in New England's secondary...

...an already top-ranked secondary according the folks at Pro Football Focus, who slotted them at number three in the entire National Football League, with the caveat that all they were missing was an effective nickle corner, then stating, "They hope to have improved the position with the selection of Cyrus Jones..."

A former wide receiver who transitioned to the cornerback role in college, Jones has exceptional ball skills and impeccable timing, plus has the field vision to become the Patriots' primary punt returner as proven by his four returns for touchdowns for the Crimson Tide last season, his only college season with that responsibility - meaning that his potential is virtually untapped.

The really scary thing for opposing offensive coordinators is that the Patriots have achieved such a lofty status despite having one of the youngest starting secondaries in the NFL at just over 25 years of age on average - the elder statesmen being Chung and McCourty, both at just 28 years old - and with a full stable of young greyhounds learning the ropes behind them, the future is just as bright as the present, if not more so.

The trio of safeties on the back end comprise the best Big Nickle squad in the game.  Harmon patrolling the the deep zone with the range of a speedy centerfielder allows McCourty - a former first round selection as a cornerback - and Chung to reduce down into the five-yard buffer off the line of scrimmage to act as a nickle corner and a weakside linebacker, respectively, McCourty helping out on outside receivers while Chung focuses on the running back.

Combined with the bulk of the front four taking on interior double teams and setting a hard edge on the outside, this alignment allows for the strong side linebacker to mirror the tight end and for the middle linebacker to read and react to the ball - the result of which provided the Patriots with a top ten defense last season - and it's only going to get better.

Because of the success of the alignment, Belichick will likely keep six safeties on the roster for a second consecutive season, limiting the roster spots for the true cornerbacks.

McCourty, Chung and Harmon are givens, as is second-year strong safety Jordan Richards, who is an insurance policy against any free agency defections next offseason, but the depth behind these four is a matter of some conjecture, as the last two slots traditionally go to special teams' mavens.

Last season, those went to Olympic Rugby player Nate Ebner and former Auburn "star" linebacker Brandon King, both of whom more than made a case for continuation in those roles in 2016, which is bad news for the fringe players vying for a spot on the 53 - the one exception could be rookie Kamu Grugier-Hill, who played weakside linebacker in college, but has the speed and athleticism to make the team as a Chung-like Big Nickle...

...though he could likely count against the linebacker depth chart.  Regardless, the limitations on the roster spots could again leave the team with just four corners - and with Butler, Ryan and Jones locks to make the roster, that leaves just one spot open amid a glut of potential candidates.

The smart money would be on either Justin Coleman or Darryl Roberts, both second year players with off-the-charts intangibles.

Roberts broke a bone in his wrist and landed on the Patriots' IR last preseason which, in retrospect, allowed the team to keep him around rather than expose him to waivers at the end of camp - a sure cut who needed a year of technique work and refinement, not to mention getting his skinny butt into the weight room, and the team took advantage of all of that once his injury healed.

The Marshall product has elite speed (4.38), loose hips to charge direction on a dime and rocket launchers in his legs to get to high balls, but he also had bad habits that needed to be corrected, such as mugging receivers well into their pattern, drawing laundry from the referees.

As a result of injuries to Roberts and others, the rookie Coleman got plenty of opportunity to display his wares as a nickle corner, logging five passes defended and 21 tackles in his ten games with New England in 2015 - this despite less-than-prototypical speed.  What set the Tennessee product apart from his contemporaries was his quickness underneath, something he displayed in abundance at the scouting combine...

...notching top grades in the twenty and sixty yard shuttles as well as the three cone drill.  Coleman bounced around early in the season between Minnesota, Seattle and Foxborough, but eventually settled in with the Patriots and held up well.

In many ways, Jones is a compendium of those two second year players: He doesn't carry Roberts' fast wheels, but does display a penchant for punking receivers, and he didn't blow up the pre-draft process like Coleman did, instead displaying incredibly normal athleticism - but when he punks the receiver, he does so within the five-yard mugging zone that corners are allowed to have contact with them.

This is his main attribute.  His ability to fight in the legal zone and intimidate pass catchers with his aggressive posture, excellent play strength and nasty attitude are key, but the fact that he transitioned from wide receiver at Alabama to the other side of the ball in his sophomore season gives him a unique insight into the head of a pass catcher, making it easy for him to get under their skin.

His game is intimidation, and once he gets under a receiver's skin there is no cure for him - there is no antibiotic to inject them with, no salve to calm their savage rash, not even a magical elixer to treat the symptoms.  Receivers are just going to have to let Cyrus the Virus run his course and just hope that the next time they meet, they can wash their hands of him.


Tuesday, July 5, 2016

Reloading The Musket, Part 6 - Eclectic Patriots' Defense Much More Than The Sum Of It's Parts

Sheard (triple-teamed on right) and Brown (90) set the tone against the run and provide an effective pass rush

The Top 100 players in the NFL have been revealed - all, that is, except for the top 10 - and unless one of New England's excellent linebackers are in that final group, no Patriots' defenders have been included on the list.

That really shouldn't surprise anyone, as the Patriots' defense has had more than it's share of detractors since the start of the current decade - six seasons featuring the now-familiar bend-but-don't break approach, where the defense gives up a ton of yards between the twenties, but not much more than that...

...ranking in the bottom-third of the league in yardage allowed, yet ranking in the top-third in points allowed.  It's not sexy - in fact, it can be downright frustrating to watch at times - but it has been effective.

But for the past two seasons, the trend has been shifting from bend-but-don't-break to a more dominating approach. For example, in the 2014 Championship season, the Patriots' defense came in 13th in yardage allowed and eighth in points allowed, and followed that up last season by finishing in the top 10 in both categories - ninth in yardage and tenth in points allowed, only the second time in franchise history that the defense ranked better in yardage allowed than in points allowed.

That trend is certainly looking up for 2016, despite the fact that no Patriots' defender made the list of the 100 best football players in the league - a glaring omission that will likely add an additional twinge of motivation to a group of eleven that already had a chip on their collective shoulder.

But then again maybe not, as the unit is used to working in obscurity, taking a distant back seat to the potent offense led by future first-ballot Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady and his considerable weaponry - which is odd, since most of the top draft capital spent by head ball coach and defacto General Manager Bill Belichick recently resides on the defensive side of the ball.

2010 top round pick Devin McCourty leads a starting defensive lineup that sports no less than eight players drafted on the first or second day of the NFL Draft, with linebacker Dont'a Hightower and defensive tackle Malcom Brown joining the unit as first round selections in 2012 and 2015, respectively...

...while Brown's fellow defensive tackle Alan Branch was a second round selection of the Cardinals in 2007, with safety Pat Chung and freak linebacker Jamie Collins both Patriots' top picks as second round selections, Chung in 2009 and Collins in 2013.  2015 Free agent pickup steal Jabaal Sheard was a second rounder with Cleveland 2011 and cornerback Logan Ryan rounds out the list as a third rounder in 2013.

That's eight of New England's defensive starters that were selected with top draft capital as opposed to just three of the Patriots' offensive starters (Solder, 1st round in 2001; Vollmer, second round 2009 and Rob Gronkowski, second round 2010), so one would think from the disparity that New England would have twice as many players on the list from the defense as they do their offense.

Ah, but talk of such things such are for the split milk crowd, as is the collective anxiety generated when one thinks of the contract situation for the defense heading into the 2016 season.

Granted, the players most likely feel slighted, but those feeling are nothing that a new rich contract wouldn't cure, and the players who deserve to feel the most slighted - linebackers Hightower and Collins - are due for very big pay raises, indeed.

But first there is the matter of a football season, which for the aforementioned pair of linebackers is a contract year, along with such stalwarts as Sheard, fellow defensive end Rob Ninkovich and centerfielder Duron Harmon, and newbies playing on one-year deals in defensive tackle Terrance Knighton and rush end Chris Long.

That's a lot of talent hitting free agency after the season, but there are two things about the circumstance that should give Patriots' fans a little cleaner air to breathe:  First, contract years usually equate to best efforts, and with that many auditioning for big contracts combined with a deep talent structure in place, we will likely see the best defense that Belichick has had in a decade or more...

...and secondly, as things stand now, the Patriots will have a whopping $63.5 million in cap space to play around with at the start of the league year in March, which could conceivably get everyone signed, and also get a new deal for up-and-coming cornerback Malcolm Butler as well.

So the focus going into the 2016 season should be all on the field of battle for a defense that should easily be one of the top units in the entire National Football League.

***********************************************

The New England Patriots are so eclectic in their players' individual skill sets that there is no way to properly hang a label on them.

Look on any football website and it will tell you that the Patriots run a 4-3, but the truth is that with as many hybrid players the defense possesses, they could easily slip into a 3-4 or morph into any number of exotic formations.  That said, the reason for the Patriots' defensive successes last season was their ability to play primarily out of a 4-2-5 Big Nickle.

Those of you who follow my blog know from long experience that the Big Nickle is a defensive formation that follows the tenets of a traditional nickle defense - with four down linemen, two linebackers and five defensive backs - but with a twist: Instead of bringing in a third cornerback, the Patriots bring in a third safety, who drops into the box and acts as a weakside linebacker, providing coverage on running backs and heft in run support.

The Patriots are able to do this because they have a true centerfielder in Harmon, who is one of the best sideline to sideline blue liners in the game, and because they have the outstanding linebacker duo in Hightower and Collins.  The Big Nickle is on them as the linebackers play the run, cover tight ends and rush the passer while Harmon patrols the deep end as the last line of defense...

...leaving McCourty to assist in coverages on wide receivers and supplement Pro Bowl corner Malcolm Butler and fourth-year man Ryan, while Chung drops down and becomes the primary playmaker. Add into that the pass rushing skill and edge-setting ability of Sheard and Ninkovich on the wings and the run stuffing prowess of Brown and Knighton on the interior, and the Patriots have a seriously stout defense.

There are not many teams who can set up the Big Nickle quite like Belichick has, as he stock-piles safeties that fit his prototype and, even more important, there are not many teams that can match up well offensively with the alignment, something that became more and more evident last season down the stretch, as the defense carried the handicapped offense.

How effective was the alignment?  Well, for the entire season, the Patriots' defense allowed just three - THREE - 300 yard passing games, and held ten of their opponents to 250 passing yards or less - while on the ground they allowed less than 100 rushing yards in ten of their sixteen contests - but they saved their best performance for last, holding the eventual World Champion Denver Broncos to 244 total yards in an epic display of skill and strength.

That, unfortunately, wasn't enough as the offense constantly put the defense in poor field position and could only muster 18 points against what was the league's top-rated defense of 2015, and still could have won the game had any one of a number of poor decisions and poor executions had turned out differently.

But as Belichick is fond of saying, If "if's" and "but's" were candy and nuts, everyday would be Christmas - meaning excuses be damned.  The Patriots came within a whisker of going to their seventh Super Bowl of the Belichick era, riding a defense down the stretch that was one of the best in the game.

There is no reason to believe that this year's edition can't expand upon that success, and in the remaining parts to this series, we will examine all three levels of the defense in detail, giving special credence to both the diversity of the talent and the resultant Big Nickle alignment...


Monday, January 18, 2016

Prelude To A Championship, Part VI - Big Nickle Rules From Here On Out

The New England Patriots are the only team in the National Football League capable of running a true Big Nickle Defense - and the Patriots' fan base should thank goodness for that...

For years, New England head ball coach Bill Belichick has been stockpiling safeties in anticipation of using the Big Nickle as his base alignment because, unlike the traditional nickle alignment which sees a third cornerback come on the field in the stead of a lumbering linebacker, the Big Nickle brings in a third safety instead...

...the idea being that, with the trend in the NFL being towards bigger and more athletic tight ends and receivers, a safety could fulfill the requirements for a fifth defensive back more readily and effectively than a corner.
Chung is a scrapper whose physical style is perfect for the Big Nickle

But not just a standard brand free safety, nor your typical in-the-box strong safety. The Big Nickle calls for hybrids, free safeties that can handle sideline-to-sideline duties as the single high man, and strong safeties with coverage skills much like a cover 'backer who has the hitting ability to play the run like the linebacker they are replacing.

What makes the Patriots unique in this alignment, however, is that they employ a free safety that came into the league as a top-rated cornerback, Belichick slowly converting him to safety over a three year span, leading to his taking over at free safety full time in 2012 - which is the same season that he began his stockpiling of safeties, adding Tavon Wilson to the fold in that season's draft.

Duron Harmon was on the menu for the following season and Jordan Richards completed the deal in this past season's draft. In between, the Patriots unsuccessfully attempted to revive the career of former Arizona Cardinals' big hitter Adrian Wilson, which lead to the team re-signing wayward son Patrick Chung after a one-year hiatus from the team in Philadelphia.

The first clue that Belichick really gave to anyone regarding his actual intentions for his secondary came when he kept six safeties coming out of the preseason and kept just four corners. The Patriots have traditionally employed sure-tackling corners in what has been either a 4-2-5 alignment (four down linemen, two linebackers and five defensive backs) or a 3-3-5, depending on the opposing personnel.

But their track record against athletic tight ends and running backs in the pattern hasn't been stellar in the recent past, and much of that has to do with the growing pains that the team experienced as Belichick tinkered with the coverages while slowly building his safety corps - which included bringing Chung back to complete the look.

Belichick even admitted earlier this season that when Chung was with the Patriots from 2009 - 2012, the defense wasn't set up to play to his strengths. When Philadelphia released him as part of wholesale changes in their secondary, Belichick immediately contacted Chung with the news that they were ready to put him in a position where he could be successful.

"After he was released, we followed back up on the conversation we had with him when he left and I said to him 'look, things are a little different here now'" Belichick explained, "and we were able to find a better place for him going forward than what we had before when he was here."

Chung plays best either close to the line in the box or on the line itself, punking tight ends and bigger slot receivers in the passing game, and adding a violent element in run support. But the Patriots were never able to do that when he was in Foxborough before, with only Brandon Merriweather to team with Chung until Belichick cross-trained McCourty.

Then along came Harmon, an obscure safety from Rutgers that didn't even warrant an invite to the combine, but that Belichick thought enough of to make him a third-round pick in 2013. Why? simply because he had the skill set to complete the safety corps as Belichick saw it.

And the way he saw it unfolding was to have Harmon and his sub-4.4 speed patrol the back end while McCourty and Chung wreaked havoc closer to the line of scrimmage.

"They are both very dependable." Belichick offered, "I'd say a lot of tackles those two guys have to make are hard tackles. I mean, there's tackles, and then there's tackles."

"There's a whole element to even getting in position to tackle that comes into play spatially that doesn't come into play on in-line tackles" Belichick continued, "but those two guys, they're very good. I'd say probably two of the better tacklers in the league at their position."

Pretty high raise coming from a man of the Dark Master's stature, but he's a man that appreciates his players, and always tries to put them in the best position to succeed - and once Harmon proved he could handle being the centerfielder, Belichick put his plan into motion, and the results have been spectacular.

No longer are the Patriots susceptible to being abused by athletic tight ends, as Chung and McCourty have been part of the solution that has held opposing tight ends to 57 catches for 596 yards, which averages out to right around three catches and 35 yards per game, hardly a major impact.

McCourty will also help in the pattern on the larger slot receivers, leaving the top two targets on the opposition's arsenal to corners Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan, who will take turns on the opponents' number one threat with Harmon over the top, depending on how their skill sets match up, the other will take the number two threat straight up.

It is a recipe that has helped the Patriots' defense to a top 10 ranking in the league, as all of the defensive backs also bear down against the run - as evidenced by Ryan, Chung, Butler and McCourty making up four of the top six tacklers on the team, while Harmon makes his bones as a large (6' 1", 210 pounds), fast, physical presence on the blue line.

The Big Nickle alignment will be front and center against the Broncos in the AFC Championship game this coming Sunday, as everything their offense can do begins not with quarterback Peyton Manning, but with Denver's running game, an underrated unit that averages 4.2 yards per pop - a stable that includes CJ Anderson and Ronnie Hillman, who combined this season for nearly 1600 yards and scored 12 touchdowns...

...but are also an integral part of the passing game, with 49 catches between them and with both ably picking up the blitz. This also means that the Patriots' linebackers will need to be on full alert, but with the injury status of both Jerod Mayo and Jamie Collins unknown at this time, that story will have to wait for Part VII...



Wednesday, December 23, 2015

Patriots' Defense Reaches Elite Level, Can It Be Sustained Through The Post-Season?

How many times do Patriots' fans have to hear a commentator called the defense "underrated" before they finally get their due?

Now, being underrated is not necessarily a bad thing, but the New England Patriots' defense has evolved past a point now where the moniker no long fits. They are no longer the surprise unit that lost both of their starting corners from last season to free agency. They are no longer the unit that lost the anchor from their defensive line.
Newcomers Sheard (L) and Brown (R) have had major a impact on the defense

Rather, this is a defensive unit that started out well in the secondary despite the heavy attrition suffered in the offseason and have allowed just 230 yards per game through the air, with only two quarterbacks - Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger and New York Giants' Eli Manning - to top the 300 yard plateau...

...and including a front seven that started out slowly - allowing 115 yards per game on the ground in the first five games - but have become miserly since, decreasing that average by a full 30 yards per game.

As a result, New England stands 8th in pass defense and 10th in rush defense, their averages making them the sixth-ranked defense in the entire National Football League - not bad for a unit that was supposed to wilt under the pressure of not having Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner locking down the secondary and for not having Vince Wilfork occupying offensive linemen so that others can plug gaps and make tackles.

That perception is now officially blown away. In fact, this Patriots' defense is better all the way around, statistically speaking, than last year's championship edition.

Through 16 games last season, the Patriots were a Top 10 unit against the run, allowing 104 yards per game, but 17th against the pass at 240 yards per game, bringing them in at 13th in overall defense while logging 40 sacks and 81 passes defended, Revis leading with 16...

...but through 14 games this season, New England's defenders are surrendering 95 yards per game on the ground and 230 yards per game through the air, and are the 6th ranked defense in the entire league. They have already logged 48 sacks and 77 passes defended.

Those numbers alone should be convincing enough for anyone, but for the hardcore who will look you in the eye and call you flat moronic for thinking any defense could be better minus Revis - consider that both Logan Ryan and Malcolm Butler are within one pass defensed of what Revis accomplished all of last season, both far surpassing what Brandon Browner was able to do as well.

These facts have not been lost on coaches around the league. In fact, New York Jets' coach Todd Bowles - he no stranger to coaching elite corners in his day - calls the duo one of the best tandems in the league.

"They can play zone, they can play man." Bowles said during a recent press conference "They're both big, they're both physical. They can tackle. Their defense has been outstanding. Those two corners are a big reason, a big part of it."

Bear in mind that this is the man who has coached names like Patrick Peterson and Darrelle Revis in the past two seasons, which makes his gushing assessment all the more remarkable, but he didn't stop there. Bowles went on to qualify his statement concerning Butler in particular, saying, "He's not just a man corner, he's a zone corner, too. he's fiesty and he's got good techinque too, which is rare."

"You can tell he works at it. I enjoy watching him play."

Another reason why the secondary is outproducing last season's crew is because of the play of the safeties.

As you know, the Patriots employ a "Big Nickle" base about 70% of the time, which means there are two free safeties and one strong safety on the field at the same time - and they are all far more involved in coverage this year than last, Patrick Chung (9 passes defended), Duron Harmon (5) and Devin McCourty (5) are all solid in underneath and / or over the top work, while Ryan and Harmon lead the team in interceptions.

Up front, Belichick has an embarrassment of riches, starting with defensive end Chandler Jones who has finally been healthy for a full season and is having a Pro Bowl year - probably an All Pro year as well - with 12.5 sacks, 43 tackles and four forced fumbles. Rob Ninkovich (6.5/43/1) starts on the strong side opposite Jones and Jabaal Sheard (7/31/3) completes a three-man rotation that is keeping these pass rushers fresher than their mirrors as the game goes on...

...while the same holds true for the interior of the defensive line, as off-tackles Alan Branch and Akiem Hicks rotate in with nose tackle Malcom Brown. The benefit of the rotation along the line becoming evident late in games, when the Patriots' pass rush always appears to be a step faster than their counterparts.

Sometimes you'll see a huge four-man package with Brown, Branch, Jones and Ninkovich, sometimes their version of a NASCAR alignment, bringing in Akiem Hicks and/or and Sheard to rush from the inside. Other times you'll see Hicks at the three tech with Branch at the nose and Sheard on the strong side. There are literally dozens of situational subpackages where the Patriots get their best athletes for the circumstance all on the field at the same time.

Among the linemen, the aforementioned riches consist of the draft picks used to select the players, which Belichick sees as solid-gold bullion - there are two 1st round draft picks in Jones and Brown, two second rounders in Sheard and Branch, a third rounder in Geneo Grissom and a fifth-rounder in Rob Ninkovich.

And then there's the linebackers. Just like the safety corps, there is probably not a more talented group of linebackers in the NFL, and all living up to their lofty draft statuses. with Mayo (2008) and Hightower (2012) taken in the first round and Jamie Collins (2013) in the second, though that second round selection was the Patriots first pick in the draft.

Reserve linebackers Jon Bostic (Chicago, 2nd round) and Jonathan Freeny (UDFA Miami) were not on the team last season, while Darius Fleming (San Francisco, 3rd round) was part of the rotation in Foxborough in 2014.

The Safeties are diamond-studded as well, with a 1st rounder in Devin McCourty, second rounders Pat Chung, Tavon Wilson and rookie Jordan Richards and a third-rounder in Duron Harmon - all told, that's a lot of high draft capital expended by Belichick and others as compelled by their evaluation processes - but what about the corners?

Well, that's the amazing thing. Ryan has the highest draft ranking in the bunch, being taken in the third round, and he's matched up with three undrafted free agents, rookie Justin Coleman, fourth-year man Leonard Johnson and, of course, Butler - not a first or second rounder in the bunch, and together with the rest of the fellas comprise the sixth best overall defense in the National Football League.

They are starting to get some attention on the national scene, which is fine, but most compelling is how a third year cornerback and an undrafted cornerback have been able to come of age right before our eyes - and all you have to do is to look at how all three levels of the defense work in harmony with each other to realize it's not just one unit or another stepping up.

The Patriots just have a solid defense that's always fresh, seems to get stronger as the game goes on, and flat gets after the opposing quarterback.

But none of this makes any difference if it doesn't translate to the playoffs.

We've already pointed out that, statistically, this year's Patriots are superior to their 2014 counterparts, and it's a trend that must continue if New England plans on retaining their world title. Last season it didn't, and it nearly resulted in disaster.

In the two games that were competitive in the playoffs - meaning the divisional round game against the Baltimore Ravens and the Super Bowl against the Seattle Seahawks - the two opponents rushed for 136 yards and 162 yards respectively, and both eclipsed the season average for passing yards surrendered.

Both, however, lost the game when challenging the Patriots' defense with the final seconds ticking off, and both on interceptions - once by Harmon to top a 14 point comeback for New England over Baltimore and once by Butler to secure a come-from-behind victory and a world championship over Seattle.

And that's important to remember going forward with this defense. nine of the twelve starters from last season's Super Bowl are still on this team and of the other three, Butler and Ryan played and had an impact in the big game and throughout the post-season. Only nose tackle Malcom Brown hasn't been exposed the brightest lights on the biggest stage...

...while everyone else is battle-tested tough, and with impressive depth backing them up everywhere except at corner, where an undrafted rookie free agent and a seldom-used journeyman back up a third-round pick and another undrafted free agent.

That doesn't sound like a recipe for success, nor is it likely to translate to such a high ranking pass defense - but these are the New England Patriots, and they've done more with less than any other team in the league.

But please don't call them underrated. We're beyond that.

And we're on to New York.








Friday, December 18, 2015

McCourty Injury Puts Spotlight on Ryan, Butler

The Patriots are the only team in the National Football League capable of running the hybrid Big Nickle defense as a base alignment.

Rather, let's make it that, they were.

The high ankle sprain suffered by New England free safety Devin McCourty is a huge blow to a secondary that is just starting to come into its own - not to mention a terrible loss for a defense that is starting to look like world beaters.


The Patriots are working on their back up facilities at several positions currently, including wide receiver, running back, offensive tackle, defensive tackle and middle linebacker - but none of the injuries at those positions are as hard-hitting and potentially devastating as losing the lynch pin of the entire secondary.

New England head ball coach Bill Belichick has been collecting safeties for the past four seasons, "reaching" with high draft picks for some of them in the eyes of many media members and fans - but there was a reason why he wanted those players and why he valued them much higher than the experts did...

...because he was creating a talent pool in which he could rotate his safeties in and out as desired, setting up his opponent with a defensive alignment that could keep the team in the nickle as a base defense while still being able to keep the running lanes accounted for.

Like the standard nickle alignment, the Big Nickle is a formation that utilizes five defensive backs to prevent the opponent from flooding the field with receivers - but unlike the standard nickle that sees a third cornerback in place of an early-down, run-plugging linebacker, the Big Nickle utilizes three safeties: a single high "centerfielder" and two hybrid safeties who help out in coverage in passing situations and who are rugged enough to reduce down into the box in run support.

So when the Patriots are in full roll in this alignment, McCourty aligns close to the line of scrimmage and either helps out in coverage or takes a receiver from the slot, Pat Chung also aligning close to the line to help out with tight ends and to plug running lanes, while speedy Duron Harmon covers sideline-to-sideline on the back end.

You wonder how the Patriots keep getting away with carrying just three healthy corners? That is how. But now with McCourty going down and questionable to play this Sunday against the Tennessee Titans, corner depth will become an issue because McCourty is the key to the entire secondary.

Projected as a late second round selection out of Rutgers, McCourty became the first "reach" selection in Belichick's secondary at 27th overall in the first round as a cornerback, where he gained Pro Bowl and second-team All Pro honors in his first season at corner, after which Belichick started toying with him at free safety toward the end of the 2012 season, then moved him there permanently next to Chung midway through the 2013 season...

...his elite 4.34 speed and excellence in zone coverages precipitating the move. By that time, the team had already selected Illinois corner Tavon Wilson in the second round of the 2012 draft and Harmon in the third round of the 2013 process, completing the Big Nickle look by "reaching" for Stanford safety Jordan Richards last May.

Belichick groomed Harmon for the centerfielder job just as he did McCourty in the 2012 season as he contemplated the switch in positions, Harmon's coming out party a month-long affair last January when he transformed into a scavenger of the highest order in securing New England's comeback from two fourteen point deficits by picking off Baltimore's Joe Flacco in the divisional round in the playoffs.

The rest of the post-season was just a coronation of sorts, as Harmon and rookie corner Malcolm Butler penciled their names in the lineup with their tough, clutch play.

But there is a reason why the Patriots broke out the company card and made McCourty a multi-millionaire with the second-richest current contract for a safety in the NFL. Out of he, Brandon Browner and Darrelle Revis, Belichick knew that the one that could least afford to lose was McCourty, given his experience as a true hybrid.

This is not to say that the safety play is masking the cornerback play as much as it is turbo boosting it,but the proof in that pudding will come on Sunday if McCourty is forced to miss the game against the Titans.

Well, maybe not against the Titans, as their receiving corps is lead by 31-year old tight end Delanie Walker with running back Dexter McCluster a distant second in catches on the season. In fact, the most receptions by a wide receiver on that team is 33 by Kendall Wright, who will be inactive for the game while nursing some cracked ribs.

So, right. Maybe not this Sunday. But most definitely the following Sunday against the New York Jets, who sport some big receivers and a modern day Steve DeBerg at quarterback, who is so hot and cold that he could look like Dan Fouts one game and JaMarcus Russell the next.

But that's getting ahead of the situation. McCourty returned to practice on Friday and is officially listed as questionable for the game against Tennessee, but circumstances are not nearly as dire enough to risk putting McCourty into harm's way at less than 100%, or a reasonable facsimile thereof.

With Tennessee's game being the short passing game to backs and tight ends, this is more of a linebacker / safety coverage game, which means that Harmon could still patrol the back end, with Chung and maybe Richards gaining leverage on the second level. Butler and fellow impressive corner Logan Ryan should have things well in hand with the likes of 31-year old Harry Douglass and rookie Dorial Green-Beckham being the top two outside threats.

So, it's probably a good game for McCourty to miss. He can hang with his brother, Titans' cornerback Jason, who is also on the shelf and actually on the team's injured reserved list. They can kick back in a booth, put their feet up and catch up with each other - but if he remains out for more than just this week, we will get to see if the cornerbacks really are playing as well as they seem to be, or if the safety play has been masking deficiencies.

Every Patriots' fan alive wants the corners to be legit, and they certainly appear to be, with Butler seemingly in a good rut where he gives up one big play per game, then shuts his man down and Ryan making his second-year jump in his third season, after spending most of his sophomore campaign behind the aforementioned Browner and Revis.

In fact, at this point in their development, it would be natural for Ryan to be ahead of Butler in technique, but how much of that success can be attributed to having that safety over the top?

If McCourty misses more than just this Sunday, we're going to find out.


Saturday, November 21, 2015

Butler's Physical Play, Steady Improvement Demanding Respect

If anyone had questions about whether Malcolm Butler is a true number one cornerback, last Sunday evening's performance against Odell Beckham and the New York Giants should have answered them with a resounding "yes"...

In fact, anyone who has had any criticism at all of the sophomore phenom out of West Alabama University has had to at least soften their stance on the kid that linebacker Jamie Collins has appropriately dubbed "Strap" - a respectful moniker that suggests Butler's penchant for strapping down receivers.

In Butler's first season as a starter, Patriots' head ball coach Bill Belichick has not been shy about exposing his second-greatest project to the best pass catcher the opposition has to offer (Tom Brady will always be the "Project" that Belichick is best known for developing)  - and the results have not always been pretty, but his improvement has been steady and he's earning the respect of his foe, no small task for a small school cat who is three years older than a typical second year guy.

Unless you've been living under a rock, you know of his heroics in the Super Bowl - but the humble Butler shook off any notion of being part of Super Bowl lore, suggesting that he didn't want his football legacy tied solely to that, rather, that his legacy would begin with his performance in the Super Bowl and evolve into whatever his destiny is.

The man who had enough respect for the history of the game that he wept openly as his name was being carved into the stone tablets of football legend, Butler accepted the key to his hometown and a wicked nice truck from quarterback Tom Brady, but once the trophy was delivered and the euphoria over a world championship mellowed into fond recollection, Butler was just a dude that played well on the biggest stage the sport has to offer, and was still essentially a first-year player with a limited sample size for a resume.

Many in the media and the Patriots' fan base questioned head ball coach Bill Belichick for not going after a top corner in the draft or free agency, instead bringing in the likes of oft-burned Bradley Fletcher and former falcon Robert McClain to offer a little resistance to Butler, but he outplayed everyone in training camp to earn the top billing.

And good thing, too, as McClain was grabbier than a teenager on a first date and Fletcher couldn't cover a body at the morgue, so the Patriots turned to former 49er and Raider Tarell Brown along with a myriad of rookies to round out their depth chart in camp, hoping that one of them would rise up and grasp the corner opposite Butler...

...but Brown hit the skids with a chronic foot injury and rookie seventh round pick Daryll Roberts broke a bone in his wrist, leaving just Butler and third-year nickle corner Logan Ryan on the outside, while having no choice but to hand the nickle job to undrafted rookie Justin Coleman, then picked up inconsistent big corner Rashaan Melvin from the Ravens to fill out the depth chart.

Of course, where the anxiety came for the media and fans was from the Patriots allowing both Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner to move on, with fears of the pass defense falling from a middle of the pack unit with those two aboard to one that more resembled Swiss cheese squarely on their brains - but the rankings really haven't changed.

The why's and how's are more a matter of the safety corps rounding into one of the top units in the NFL, loaded with versatility to support just about any game plan that Belichick could conjure.

The talisman for the three-safety "Big Nickle" defense is free safety Duron Harmon growing into the centerfielder's job, freeing up fellow blue-liner Devin McCourty to be the Big Nickle - or rover, if you will - rotating anywhere that needs attention on the second or third levels, which allows strong safety Patrick Chung to support the box in a like manner, covering tight ends while he's at it.

Ryan has certainly been a beneficiary of the philosophy, as Harmon increasingly tends to play strong side to Ryan's assignment, and sometimes with McCourty reducing down to take the slot. It's a plan that has been in place for a few years now, as Belichick's early round "reaches" in the defensive backfield needed only experience in his system with each other to properly jell...

...but what is making all of this easier - in fact, what is making it possible at all - is Butler's penchant for jumping in the receiver's hip pocket and staying there through the route progression. From the very beginning of the season, Belichick has left Butler on an island with the opposition's top receiving target, and while it has been trying at times, the trial-by-fire approach is starting to pay off.

Butler is a hockey player in football gear. He loves the physical play and seeing him mix it up with a receiver is more commonplace than with just about any other corner out there, the latest example being last Sunday as he stood toe-to-toe with New York Giants' star receiver Odell Beckham, each punking the other after the play, an extension of the fist fight that occurred as the two scrapped down the field.

That kind of physical play has gotten many an average cornerback in deep dutch with the refs and with their coaches, and Butler is no exception - but the flags are just another learning tool for him to incorporate into his body of work and, sooner rather than later, he will have earned the respect of the refs and the flags will become fewer and further between.

Because respect is the only currency that means anything on the playing field. It doesn't matter how much money your contract is worth, how long you've been in the league or what you feel that you deserve, either you earn the respect of your opponent and the officials or you don't - and if you don't, the flags continue to fly and the opposing quarterback continues to bait you...

...and while the opposing quarterbacks still pick on Butler, that can be chalked up to his thus-far shallow body of work, but he's gotten the attention of Beckham and the national press is starting to chime in, so it's only a matter of time before Butler is known more for building upon his epic start than the start itself.

And that was a tough act to follow.