Belichick Will Have To Get Creative To Help Patriots’ Defense Survive Devastating Loss Of Talent

Eight different members of the New England Patriots have opted out of the 2020 NFL season for reasons related to the ongoing pandemic, and while three of them were counted on to be integral components, their loss opens the door for some talented players waiting in the wings…

…but now, thanks to those players opting out, the Patriots also have almost $35 million in cap space that they could potentially use to bring in a seasoned veteran or two to stem the tide of departures from the depth chart.

Under normal Belichickian standards, those aforementioned young and talented players would essentially go through a “Redshirt” season, seeing minimal action while they watch and learn from the veterans ahead of them on the depth chart, but head coach Bill Belichick appears to have lost the luxury of bringing his newbies along slowly.

Both Chung (23) and Hightower (54) have opted-out of 2020 season

Fortunately, of the players on the list of opt-outs, only the loss of linebacker Dont’a Hightower and right tackle Marcus Cannon are considered problematic, as there is no proven talent behind them on the depth chart – but especially Hightower, as his decision robs the Patriots of not only their play-calling defensive captain, it also leaves the linebacking corps looking more like a Senior Bowl lineup…

…going from a “Who’s who” pack of speedy sack masters to a “Who’s that?” group of rookies and journeyman part-timers that, from the outside, looks like a serious degradation of the talent level.

But these are the New England Patriots, and Belichick is the quintessential boy scout who is always prepared – and while some (most) believe that he was unprepared last season to deal with all of the injuries that crippled his team, the simple fact of the matter is that he was preparing his team for life beyond the dynasty in hopes of creating a new one.

Replacing Hightower And Chung

This is likely to be a game-to-game scenario, which is how Belichick operates anyway.

Belichick is the master game-planner who builds his teams with the Patriots’ schedule in mind. It is said that coaches build their teams to match up with teams in their division, which makes sense on the surface, given that they play each team twice – but in reality, that means that each team plays only six of their sixteen regular season games in-division, leaving ten games against non-division foes…

…so their success or failure in making the post-season lies mainly on how they fare against the ten other teams on their schedule, and somehow, someway, Belichick seems to be able to game plan for every single team, every single week – and he uses his entire roster, even if it’s just in one or two plays throughout the season.

Situational football is what Belichick lives for, and the options that he has for covering the “Will” linebacker spot that Hightower has vacated are actually quite plentiful, if not traditional.

For the past two seasons, Belichick has employed strong safety Patrick Chung in the position at times, and though Chung has also opted out, some the players that they have brought in through free agency and the draft to eventually replace the aging box safety are looking more and more fortuitous as time goes on…

…and the draft also produced a couple of off-the-ball linebackers who possesses the skill set to contribute in the multiple-layer infusion to replace the volume of talent the Patriots lost not only when Hightower opted out, but also the loss of Jamie Collins, Kyle Van Noy and Elandon Roberts in free agency.

It makes sense for Belichick to look at veteran journeyman Brandon Copeland to provide some snaps in Hightower’s stead, but there’s a reason why the Penn product has bounced around the league since entering the NFL as an undrafted free agent in 2014.

He is a man without a true position, initially entering the league as a 265 pound defensive end with impressive speed for the position, but with suspect lateral agility in the pass rush and found himself out of the league for a couple of seasons – then reinvented himself as an outside linebacker for the 2015 veteran combine, shedding twenty pounds and, as a result, trimming two-tenths of a second off of his forty…

…and while that improved his straight-line speed, it did little to improve his agility. At his best, Copeland, who’s weight now stands at 255, is a strong-side, edge-setting linebacker who willingly takes on tight ends on the edge, but also gets regularly swallowed up in the maw, leaving an inside track for runners.

As a result, he found himself as a rotational player for both the Lions and Jets, his greatest contribution being on special teams. With his lack of lateral agility, I can’t see him as a regular part of the lineup, especially if the rookies on the roster can make an immediate impact in camp.

Michigan’s Josh Uche is the favorite to take on the “Will” role vacated by Hightower due to his “tweener” skill set. Though he won many battles as an edge rusher in college, his size could work against him against offensive tackles and tight ends in the pros unless he is schemed as an interior linebacker in a 3-4 defensive alignment, where he could roll to the edge in run defense and attack interior gaps as a blitzer in pass defense.

He possess more speed than Hightower and is fluid in underneath coverages, and the fact that he models his game after the late Sean Taylor, those box safety-like instincts and versatility has to have Belichick salivating at the possibilities of deploying Uche in the middle of his “Amoeba” defense.

As anyone who knows football is familiar with, the difference between the aforementioned box safety and a coverage linebacker is in name only, and since Belichick likes to employ his strong safeties as coverage linebackers, Uche fits that bill – but he’s not the only player on the roster who does.

Belichick’s top pick in the 2020 draft, safety Kyle Dugger, possesses the most versatility of any player on the Patriots’ defense and, as such, he could fill a different role in just about any alignment. A violent striker in space with the speed to handle the back end as well.

Dugger’s coaches at the Senior Bowl tried him at the single high safety position and as a hybrid linebacker who fills well in run support and excels at underneath coverages. He has the size to hold his own at the “Will” spot, where, as mentioned, Belichick used Chung at times to handle the better tight ends in the league.

Former Los Angeles Chargers’ safety Adrian Phillips was signed by Belichick in free agency, most likely to make him more comfortable in facilitating a trade with the Detroit Lions that sent Big Nickel safety Duron Harmon packing in a salary cap move. Phillips is also capable of reducing down into the box, but his presence only adds fuel to the speculation that Dugger will play a major role – something we will get into in a later article.

But with both Phillips and Dugger on the roster, Belichick should be able to continue fielding three safeties in both his Big Nickel and Amoeba packages, especially the latter, which is defined by no definition, a “formation” that is constantly shifting shape during the offensive cadence, making it close to impossible for the quarterback to set his protection at the line because he has no idea where the pressure will be coming from.

And that is important to remember about this defense. In the Amoeba, all of the defenders are juking and shifting as if they are rushing the quarterback, then at the snap, some defenders rush while others fall back into coverage so it is imperative that Belichick have as many versatile athletes on the field…

…and while the Amoeba is geared more towards late-down, long-yardage situations, the presence of players like Uche, Dugger and Phillips, along with young breakout candidates in linebackers Ja’Whaun Bentley and Chase Winovich, he could employ the tactic on early downs as well, albeit with a tweak or two.

All of that said, there is no guarantee with the newbies on the roster, but the versatility in their individual skill sets actually gives Belichick more options both in coverages and in run support than he had with more traditionally-skilled defenders in Hightower and Chung – but that doesn’t mean those players won’t be missed, it simply means that Belichick will have to open up his playbook a little wider, which isn’t a bad thing…

Patriots' Adherence To Fundamentals Fuels Tough Victory Over Talented Browns

28 October, 2019

Jonathan Jones has world-class speed, and apparently carries a wicked overhand right.

He's not a track star nor is he a prize fighter - just a little nickel cornerback for the New England Patriots who on Sunday afternoon saved his team's bacon by combining both skills to chase down Cleveland Browns' running back Nick Chubb, then punch the ball out of his grasp...

...the fumble deep in New England territory preventing a sure Browns' touchdown and, most importantly, deflecting a huge momentum shift in Cleveland's favor had Chubb found the end zone.

That was part of a first quarter drive-by punking of the Browns that saw the Patriots' defense force two fumbles and one weird interception on three consecutive Cleveland offensive snaps, the 10 points scored off of those turnovers putting the Browns in an early hole that they would never recover from.

Not that they would have anyway, regardless of when the Patriots scored on offense, because that three-play sequence took the Browns out of their game plan, a fantastic game plan that could have – should have – helped Cleveland hand New England their first loss of the season.

Jonathan Jones forcing Chubb's fumble

After all, had Jones and his 4.33 speed not caught up with Chubb, who had also coughed up the ball to Hightower on their previous offensive snap, had Jones not tomahawked the ball out of Chubb's grip and had safety Devin McCourty not recovered the loose ball deep in New England territory, the Browns would have been down by just three points...

...and had Chubb not been stripped of the ball by his own offensive lineman on the previous play, and had Dont'a Hightower picked it up on the fly and floated into the end zone with it, the Browns would have been up by four and feeling like world-beaters.

Hypotheticals aside, those things did happen – and in such rapid sequence that a guy could have gone outside for a smoke with the Patriots up by three with six minutes remaining in the first quarter, and come back in five minutes later to find New England up by seventeen and commentator Tony Romo sputtering platitudes about the dominant defensive performance he was witnessing.

Two plays after doomed kicker Mike Nugent put the Patriots up 3-0 with 6:38 left in the first quarter, New England linebacker Kyle Van Noy upended Giants' right tackle Chris Hubbard to set a hard edge against Chubb who was attempting to climb to the corner, Hubbard's flailing foot kicking the football free and Hightower scooped the ball off the turf and followed a six-player-strong escort to paydirt.

Punter Jake Bailey sent the ensuing kickoff into the Browns' bench to give Cleveland a short field to work with, and quarterback Baker Mayfield went right to Chubb on another strong-side edge run, but this time he cut back to the inside, juked the entire Patriots' defense out of their socks and turned on the afterburners at the left hash with nothing but the light tower in sight – but Jones, who had been planted by a Browns' tackle Chris Hubbard about 15 yards up the field, got up and started sprinting diagonally to try and catch Cleveland's marvelous sophomore back...

...going to warp and closing the gap on Chubb with freakish speed, catching him just inside the red zone, securing Chubb with his left arm and then punching the ball out with his right – the McCourty twins diving for the loose ball with Devin coming out of the scrum in possession.

Chubb was noticeably distraught, but gained a measure of solace when the Browns' stoppers pulled the plug on the Patriots' next possession – that relief lasted all of one play, as defensive tackle Lawrence Guy split a double team to wreck a Mayfield forward pitch intended for Jarvis Landry on the first play, the ball landing right in Guy's hands to complete what should now been known as a “Browns' Hat trick”.

The Patriots did score after Guy's interception, Julian Edelman taking a Tom Brady offering eight yards for what proved to be the winning points. After that the game slipped into a punt-fest as both offenses bogged down in the face of two pretty good defenses – the main difference between the two offenses being New England's almost fanatical adherence to fundamentals and Cleveland's panic-driven abandonment of them.

Which goes to figure, right? After all, when a game is tightly contested, the advantage goes to the team that sticks to their game plan, and New England's offense is so entrenched in the details that at times their methodical approach is about as exciting as watching products being put together on an assembly line...

...while the Browns seem so erratic under pressure that the fundamentals are eschewed in favor of expediency.

That is all coaching and experience, which the Patriots have over every other team in football with Brady and head ball coach Bill Belichick calling the shots - and which was on full display in the second half, when New England trudged along and wore down the Browns' defenders while Cleveland abandoned what they do best on offense – and the results were what one might expect.

Trailing by ten points at the half, the Browns took the second half kickoff and drove down the field only to be denied deep in Patriots' territory, settling for a field goal to make it a one-score game, but Brady responded by leading a seven-play drive capped off by Edelman's second touchdown reception of the night to build the Patriots' lead to fourteen.

Fundamentally, the Browns are a run-first entity despite all of the receiving talent they possess, and for three quarters their ground game actually had the advantage over the Patriots' run defense – but as the clock ticked down to the fourth quarter, Cleveland head coach Freddie Kitchens panicked and abandoned his running game and put his hopes on the arm of Mayfield...

...taking the ball out of hands of Chubb, who had rebounded spectacularly from his dismal two-fumble start to the game and ended up with 131 yards on just 20 carries – but only three of that total coming in the final frame on just one carry.

Putting the game on Mayfield's shoulders played right into what New England's defense does best, the Patriots drawing two offensive pass interference calls on deep balls and sacking the second-year quarterback twice in the fourth quarter, one of those an Adam Butler sack on fourth down from the Cleveland 19-yard line that effectively salted the game away.

Yardage-wise, New England's 27-13 victory at Gillette Stadium was their defense's poorest performance of the season. Realistically, however, the Patriots' vaunted stoppers collected five sacks and forced those three first-quarter turnovers to counter the 318 yards of total offense collected by the Browns...

...consistently coming up with stops when the chips were down, dominating on third-down and getting off the field, holding the Browns' potent offense to just three conversions in twelve attempts while the Browns fell apart, collecting thirteen penalties for 85-yards in the process.

That's what the Patriots do to everyone, and in the end, ugly or not, they always seem to make the crucial plays on both sides of the ball to come out on top.

Most teams would consider holding their opponent to barely three-hundred yards of offense a good effort, but Patriots' fans have been conditioned to expect their defense to be far stingier. Fair or not, the Boogeyman defense drives those expectations from their domination of opposing offenses through the first half of the season against a schedule that featured a less-than-imposing list of foes...

...but if Sunday's victory over a talented Cleveland offense teaches us anything, it is that New England dominates through adherence to the fundamentals, staying the course through adversity and dictating play – and that, more than anything else, makes the Patriots almost impossible to beat.

Patriots Defense: A Case Of Playing Not To Lose Rather Than Playing To Win

What is the difference between playing not to lose and playing to win?

According to sports psychologists, players, coaches and even entire teams perform differently when they view an opponent in two distinctly different ways. First, when a team views the opposition as a threat, they tense up and more times than not, the choke - but when they view their opposition as a challenge, they are much more likely to achieve their goals.

That said, despite the team's 2-1 record after three weeks, the New England Patriots' defense has been playing not to lose.

After a rough start, Marsh has started to have an impact

A study of soccer players who were facing a scenario of having to make a penalty kick to tie a game choked 40% of the time, while the same players who faced making the same kick with the score tied and his team could win with a made shot made the shot 92% of the time - the difference? The pressure of possibly losing the game can be overwhelming, and cause players to do things that they normally wouldn't do.

A similar study looked at basketball players who will consistently shoot above their career average from the free throw line during a tie game vice being up a point or down a point when they shoot well below their average.

"The point is that when athletes are challenged to rise to the occasion, they perform better than when they are threatened not to blow it." says John O'Sullivan of the Changing The Game Project, "Challenged athletes tend to focus on the prize for success, while threatened athletes focus on the consequences of failure."

Could it be that the New England Patriots' defense is struggling to start the 2017 season because they are playing not to lose?

It would make sense, given the number of new players they are trying to incorporate into a unit that is also missing key members to injury - in other words, they are hanging by a thread until reinforcements arrive in the form of patched up wounded and the newbies demonstrate a working knowledge of the philosophies and playbook.

The latter will take some time, but the new guys are integrating and are becoming more of a factor each week - especially the pass rushers, rookie Deatrich Wise and former-Seahawk Cassius Marsh - but the former could come true on Sunday when the Patriots host the Carolina Panthers, as linebacker Dont'a Hightower and corner Eric Rowe are expected to return to the lineup.

Whatever the case and in the interim, the Patriots are playing like they are in a prevent defense - not from lack of interest or effort, but from design, and when that happens - when a team is playing not to lose - they yield too many yards and too many points unnecessarily, and it has a trickle down effect on the entire team.

Now, the Patriots have never been an aggressive defensive team. They are disciplined to do the one or two tasks that they are assigned to them as one of 11 pieces in a jigsaw puzzle - and when the other ten players do likewise, the result is a stout unit that plays the run and the pass equally well, because each player is complementing the others with their discipline.

For instance, on the interior of the defensive line, the job of the nose tackle is to take on double teams, which serves to keep a guard from climbing to the second level to harass linebackers and open up options for a running back, should he slip through the containment, but also allows said linebacker to fill the gap created by the double team...

...while on the edges, the ends are supposed to set a barrier for backs to discourage them from trying to gain the corner, funneling them back toward the interior, where the aforementioned tackles and linebackers are working in tandem to prevent positive gain.

But with Hightower out and former-Jet David Harris seeing no playing time for reasons yet to be unearthed - and in addition to youngsters Elandon Roberts and Harvey Langi logging time on the trainers' table (not to mention strong-side linebacker Shea McClellin on the IR), the linebacking duties have fallen to Kyle Van Noy and whomever is healthy enough to join him at any given moment.

Hell, the Patriots even tried out safety Jordan Richards as a linebacker in the season opener, but his poor angles and sloppy tackling nixed the idea moving forward.

Ordinarily, the Patriots defense aligns in what is known as the Big Nickel, in which a linebacker is sacrificed in order to get a third safety on the field - which is centerfielder Duron Harmon, who seems to be the only player on the defense that hasn't been affected by the youth and injury. When Harmon comes on, strong safety Patrick Chung will reduce down into the box, effectively becoming a coverage linebacker.

This is where things get tricky, as Chung has been horrific in coverage on tight ends - but luckily for him and the rest of the defense, Carolina's Pro Bowl tight end Greg Olsen is out of the lineup and on the IR, leaving only Ed Dickson and his hands of stone at the tight end position, leaving the pass catching duties to tight end-sized wide receivers Kelvin Benjamin (6' 5", 245) and Devin Funchess (6' 4", 230)...

...and also to the rookie garden gnome-sized Swiss army knife Christian McCaffrey, who presents a clear and present danger to secondaries around the league with his elusiveness and sure hands. Listed as a running back, he has been solely a receiver thus far, but one that the Panthers can move around to take advantage of mismatches on linebackers.

Assuredly, the Patriots are not going to give McCaffrey a chance to work against one of the precious few linebackers, so look for cornerback Malcolm Butler to mirror the dynamic rookie, in a move that may prove that Butler is of more value to defensive coordinator Matt Patricia and head ball coach Bill Belichick as a Big Nickel-type coverage safety than as a traditional corner.

Benjamin and Funchess will be dealt with by taller corners Stephon Gilmore and Eric Rowe, while Harmon and fellow safety Devin McCourty patrol the blue line.

The Patriots can afford to be a little more aggressive against the Panthers offense, especially if Hightower does return, because quarterback Cam Newton is playing hurt and has been wildly inaccurate, tossing four interceptions and not completing more than 20 passes in a game so far this season. What's more, he's been sacked ten times in three games, which brings his net passing yardage down to a meager 188 yards per game.

Clearly, the Patriots defense has an opportunity to get right against the Panthers offense, and that means against the running game as well McCaffrey and Jonathan Stewart have combined for 3.6 yards per carry behind an offensive line that, much like the Patriots, are struggling at the tackle position but strong on the interior - even though the Panthers will be missing starting pivot Matt Kalil.

While this defense is hanging on by a thread, in-wait for the positive influx that maturation of newbies and the return of the wounded bring, it has to be remembered that playing not to lose is the only option that Belichick and Patricia have to work with, as being too aggressive without the proper personnel in place could prove even more disastrous than what they are experiencing now.

With Hightower returning, the Patriots should be able to plug the gaps created by the defensive line, while the rotation of Flowers, Wise and Marsh abuse the struggling bookends and egt to Newton, who is hurting and not a mobile as in the past - and while it's unrealistic to assume that Butler will take over for Chung in tight end coverages, this is the type of contest that should give a little less responsibility and maybe allow him to build a little confidence...

...and maybe, just maybe, New England's defense can get untracked and put together a solid game. The effort has been there, as has the will and the desire to play the game to win, and with things getting better on the injury front and with new players becoming more and more acclimated to their roles on the team, perhaps we'll have seen the last of them playing not to lose.

The Patriots' 53, Part 2: Defensive Personnel, Belichick, Give Us A Lesson In Alignments

So...which is it, Bill?  Is it a three-man line or a four-man line?

During the past two preseason games, the New England Patriots' defense has used a variety of what appears to be a three-man front.  On some plays, the nose tackle is lined up right on the center and two players are lined up head-to-head on the offensive tackles - and on some others, there are linebackers flanking the down linemen.

But most of the time, it has been three down linemen offset from the strong side, meaning that instead of the linemen set up in even spacing over the center and tackles where they would be responsible for covering two gaps, they shift into odd spacing with one linebacker sliding up to where one would typically find a 4-3 defensive end...

And, yes.

But if you were to ask Patriots' head ball coach Bill Belichick what he would label the defense he's been using, he'd tell you that labels are overrated.

"There are a lot of different alignments out there" Belichick said when tasked with the question a few years back, "You see 4-3 teams using odd spacing, you see 3-4 teams using even spacing.  You have 11 players that you can put in different positions."

What we have seen lately is a 3-4 team using odd spacing with a linebacker, typically rookie Harvey Langi, standing up at the end of the line on the strong side, which Belichick elaborated on by using an anaolgy from when he was the defensive coordinator under Bill Parcells with the New York Giants.

"Most people thought we played a 4-3 at the Giants." Belichick explained, "Lawrence Taylor did a lot more pass rushing than he did dropping into coverage, probably 80 to 90 percent of the time, he was the designated rusher on the defense. It wasn't always a pass play, but certainly in passing situations and on pass plays, he was the designated fourth rusher, which really did put us in what amounts to a 4-3."

This isn't to suggest that the rookie from BYU is anywhere close to being in the same class as one of the greatest linebackers to ever lace up a pair of cleats, it just goes to show that in the National Football League, and especially with Belichick, it's a fools errand to label anything.

That said, I have been trying to tell anyone who will listen to me that the moves that Belcihick has made this offseason - starting with the free agent deal for former Baltimore Ravens' five-tech end Lawrence Guy and ending with the drafting of Arkansas defensive end Deatrich Wise and the signing of undrafted Vanderbilt free agent Adam Butler - are directly in line with someone who is stocking up for a three man line.

What really hammers that home, however, is the depth that Belichick has accumulated at linebacker.

In signing former New York Jets' linebacker David Harris, Belichick brought in a veteran "Ted" 3-4 interior linebacker, which essentially frees up the rest of the linebacking corps to play their natural positions.  For example Shea McClellin is a natural strong-side "Sam" linebacker who can set the edge in the running game and drop into zone coverage to hammer crossers...

...while Kyle Van Noy is a natural "Mike", an interior linebacker who feeds into the gap that has been neutralized by the "Ted" and flows to the ball, and is also an excellent weak side "Will" linebacker who can cover backs curling out of the backfield.  Harvey is a wild-card who has gotten the looks at the "Jack", which is essentially a hybrid defensive end / strong side lienbacker.

But the player that makes the whole thing work is Dont'a Hightower, who can - and has - played all of those positions and will likely become a chess piece all along the front seven.  In college at Alabama, Hightower played the "Mike", the "Jack" the "Sam" and also had his hand in the dirt as a 3-4 rush end.

He can do it all, and just the fact that Pro Football Focus has named him the best blitzing linebacker in the NFL for three years running makes him a valuable chess piece indeed.

But wait, there's more: Most times, the Patriots are in a nickle look which, of course, means that they have a fifth defensive back in the alignment at the expense of either a lineman or a linebacker, but when the Patriots align in the Big Nickle - which is their three-safety look - the strong safety, usually Patrick Chung, reduces down into the box and becomes, in essence, a weak side linebacker...

...while free safety Devin McCourty helps out in coverage or even goes press-man in the double slot, leaving Duron Harmon as the "centerfielder", with sideline-to-sideline speed typical of a free safety but with the striking style of a strong safety.

In other words, just about every player on Belichick's defense is a hybrid of some sort, which means labels be damned.

"Honestly," Belichick mused about labeling alignments, "I think that's something (labeling) that's a media fabrication."

A needed fabrication, as it serves as a decades-old template from which a reporter can relay to their viewers and readers the most fundamental formations, so that they are able to conjure an image in their mind that when one of them says the team is in a 3-4, the image that comes to mind is three down linemen and four linebackers.

So, like it or not, Bill, for many to understand the sport in lay terms, things have to labeled - and then the more a person becomes familiar with the sport, they start getting more in-depth and can move away from the labels, or at least expand them to accept the possibilities that what has been taught fundamentally is, but can and does carry more than just one specific destiny.

"You teach the techniques of your defense. That is what's consistent." Belichick said in closing. "They will continue to play the same fundamental techniques as they've been teaching the entire year. I think that's what teaching defensive fundamental football is all about.  It's about fundamentals. Wherever you put the players, you've got other people in complimentary places."

Meaning, of course, that players are taught the techniques that Belichick wants them to learn, and they play those techniques no matter where they align, as the flow of the game dictates, secure in the knowledge that if you just do your job as you've been taught, and the people around you do as they've been taught, everything meshes together regardless of the label.

"It's pretty straight forward, really. It's more of techniques and fundamentals that you teach your defensive players, more than it is the 4-3 or 3-4 alignment."

Defensive Line:

Malcolm Brown
Alan Branch
Trey Flowers
Vincent Valentine
Lawrence Guy
Deatrich Wise
Adam Butler

Brown and Valentine are true nose tackles, though both have the versatility to play either gap or both and both are solid in occupying the center and a guard, allowing others to flow to the ball unimpeded while Guy and Butler can be found playing just about anywhere on the line that the alignment dictates.  Wise and Flowers are defensive ends that are able to reduce down to a three-technique (shading the outside shoulder of the guard).

But what really makes the line unique is the gargantuan presence of Branch.  Even at the ripe old age of 32, Branch is a physical freak at 6' 6' and a listed 350 pounds, and with the wingspan of a condor (35" long arms) and consistently grades out as one of the best run-pluggers in the league.

Linebackers:
Dont'a Hightower
Kyle Van Noy
Shea McClellin
David Harris
Elandon Roberts
Harvey Langi

Given Belichick's rant above, could he have planned for Hightower what he had going with Taylor on the Giants years ago?  There certainly seems to be a possibility, given the talent and depth at linebacker and the fact that the Big Nickel adds personnel to this grouping with the strong safety reducing down onto the second level.

Cornerbacks:

Stephon Gilmore
Malcolm Butler
Eric Rowe
Jonathan Jones
Cyrus Jones

Solid - all around solid group.  I had a moment where I wanted to add Justin Coleman to this list, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him on the roster in September.  Cyrus Jones is going to be crucial now that Edelman is injured, as he will have only Danny Amendola backing him up on punt returns, and with the possibility that we could see Dion Lewis as an emergency fit.

Beyond that, Gilmore and Rowe have looked awesome in the preseason, and while Butler has suffered from a case of the hiccups in the last two games, he remains a quality corner - a corner that will likely be relegated to the slot where his foot quickness and feistiness will work in covering smaller receivers on some Sundays, while still playing on the outside covering smaller receivers on the boundary.

Safeties:

Devin McCourty
Patrick Chung
Duron Harmon
Nate Ebner
Brandon King
Damarius Travis

I've personally been waiting for the team to use King as part of the Big Nickel - because he played the "Star" position while in college at Auburn, which is the weakside nickel linebacker hybrid, though with his sub 4.4 speed and special teams prowess as an angle obliterator, he could conceivably play centerfielder as well.

I saw enough of Travis to be convinced that he is an immediate upgrade over Jordan Richards as Chung's backup.


Specialists: 

Joe Cardona
Ryan Allen
Stephen Gostkowski

In watching video of Gostkowski's kicks over the past couple of years, it is clear on his misses that he changes up his leg speed on extra points, probably in response to having to do so on his kickoffs, as Belichick doesn't want to just give up twenty-five yards of field position on a touchback.  It's a good thought and usually his coverage units hold the opponents far short of the mark - so it's a matter of taking the bad with the good.

Allen is a weapon that can flip field position, as seems to do so in the most dire of situations.

The Art Of Football, Part 7: Patriots' Linebacking Corps Built For The Base 3-4 Alignment

The New England Patriots just keep piling on veteran players with an axe to grind...

On Wednesday afternoon, various media outlets were reporting that the team had signed ten-year veteran run-stuffer David Harris to the 90-man roster, shoring up what some believed to be a weak spot on the Patriots defense - and while there may be some truth to that notion, one has to wonder how that shakes up the defense as a whole, if at all.

As we know, New England played three-quarters of their defensive snaps last season in a three-safety nickel, rushing just three at times and playing three linebackers - sometimes only two - plus bringing strong safety Patrick Chung down into the box as sort of an impromptu and undersized weak side linebacker - in effect, giving the defense a traditional 3-4 look.

Hightower and Roberts form a good interior linebacking corps

The signing of Harris confirms that.

In the New York Jets' 3-4 defense, Harris played the "Mike", or strong-side interior linebacker who takes on rogue linemen trying to get to the second level, freeing up the "Will", the weak side interior linebacker, to flow to the football - a role that Patriots' defensive captain Dont'a Hightower played to success in college at Alabama.

Coincidence that New England would bring the veteran stone wall?  Not at all, considering that Hightower is considered the best blitzing linebacker in the NFL, and having a veteran "Mike" in the lineup to keep him clean from offensive linemen on the second level speaks to that end.

Coming out of Michigan in 2007, Harris was considered a two-down run-stuffer and a liability in pass defense - yet was taken in the second round, the Jets trading up from number 63 overall to number 47, surrendering that second rounder plus their third and sixth rounders to make Harris the anchor of Eric Mangini's 3-4 defense...

...and though he never made a Pro Bowl and notched just one lone second-team All Pro nod in 2009, Harris is a typical Patriots' pick up - a consistent, durable and amazingly agile athlete who does everything well, but is not elite in any particular aspect of the game and who finds himself in a circumstance of battling for a roster spot for the first time in his career.

Because the Patriots depth chart is loaded down with linebackers, but have experienced some volatility since Jerod Mayo's body started breaking down in 2013, eventually forcing his early retirement after the 2015 season.  In between, head ball coach Bill Belichick has ridden Hightower on the second level, his team-first attitude and flair for the dramatic turning the tables in two Super Bowls.

Veteran sidekicks have helped to fill the void left by Mayo's misfortune - Jamie Collins leading the list of temporary fill-in's that includes names like Dane Fletcher, Jonathan Casillas and Akeem Ayers - and now includes the likes of Kyle Van Noy and Shea McClellin...

...and as far as human missiles are concerned, the Patriots haven't had a true one since Brandon Spikes, though second-year man Elandon Roberts shows promise as a downhill stuffer - but there's also more to Roberts' game than meets the eye; pigeon-holed as a two-down run-stuffer with limited athleticism, Roberts posted a potential-sparking fifth-rated overall grade among rookie linebackers.

In fact, it was Roberts manning the middle of the second level zone, allowing for Hightower to blitz from the strong side and cause the strip sack that changed the momentum in the Super Bowl. But it was also Roberts who got tangled up with Falcons' receiver Mohamed Sanu and allowing running back Devonta Freeman to flow into the flat uncovered for a play that should have cooked the Patriots' collective goose.

So there's progress to be made with a young "Mike" linebacker with more game than advertised as a sixth-round pick - a low round pick surrounded by top round talent, in fact, as both Hightower and Shea McClellin are former first-rounders and Kyle Van Noy came into the league as a second-rounder, as did Harris.

That's some serious draft capital investment for a unit considered by many to be the weak spot of the defense - but if one takes the cup-half-full angle, they would realize that the linebacking corps being the weak spot of the defense just goes to show how good the defense actually is, and that the second level is actually designed this way for a reason.

Earlier it was mentioned that the defense played seventy-five percent of their snaps in the three-safety nickel alignment in 2016 - an alignment known to Patriots' fans as the Big Nickel - in which the linebacking corps "sacrifices" one of it's positions (usually the weak side linebacker) to allow the strong safety to reduce into the box and play the position to counter the opposition's off-the-line strengths.

That typically means coverage on either the tight end or the running back - vital because the type of linebacker that the Patriots employ usually leaves a bit to be desired in pass coverages which, as mentioned, is intentional in the scheme.  But it isn't as if the linebackers have no coverage skill, it's just that they typically have been a read-and-react entity, which leaves them subject to deception.

Case in point? We mentioned Roberts getting tangled up with Mohamed Sanu in the Super Bowl, leaving Devonta Freeman wide open in the flat for a 39 yard catch and run, and that was a designed play in which Sanu could have easily been called for interference for blocking downfield before the ball was thrown, but wasn't because he was also being engaged by strong safety Patrick Chung on the play.

On the play, Roberts had responsibility for the middle zone while Hightower shot the gap between the left guard and tackle as if expecting a running play, and the Falcons took advantage of the aggressiveness by isolating the rookie and easily eliminating him.  To his credit, Roberts recovered and eventually made the tackle, but that is a play that should have led to Atlanta icing the game...

...but their own aggressiveness got them in hot water a few plays later and they ended up kicking the ball back to the Patriots, who drove down the field to tie the Super Bowl and sending it into overtime. The same issue came up in Super Bowl 49 when former Patriots' linebacker Jamie Collins was isolated on Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch, who burned him in a similar manner to put Seattle in business late in that game.

The point is that teams have been able to exploit New England's defense when they take the aggressive route to try and force a play - and that can only happen when the opponent has put the Patriots in a mode where they have to take chances in coverage, and it usually involves a matchup issue between running backs and linebackers.

The solution? a switch back to the 3-4 base in which the "Mike" takes on the disruptor on the second level and freeing up the "Will", which in both instances would have been Hightower.

The depth is better now , with Van Noy and McClellin both able to play either the "Will" or the weak side and with greybeard Rob Ninkovich and rookie third-round pick Derek Rivers able to handle the strong side, and the signing of Harris providing invaluable depth as the "Mike" - not to mention mentoring Roberts in the role that Harris has excelled in during his ten-year career.

So the depth chart at linebacker is stocked to overflow, which means that it is likely names like Jonathan Freeny an d Rob Ninkovich become tough cuts at the end of training camp - perhaps even McClellin as well, if undrafted free agent Harvey Langi performs as advertised.

Langi is worth mentioning in the mix because he possesses a skill set that could make him an effective interior linebacker in the Patriots' scheme, though he needs work on the fundamentals of the position since he was used first as a running back, then linebacker, then defensive end in college, having the versatility to fill in where the team needed him to...

...which means that he has work to do, but what better way to learn the position than with Harris and Hightower showing the way, whether he make the 53-man roster or spends a season on the practice squad?

In the end, New England should sport a top linebacking corps.  They have essentially the same personnel that they ended last season with, but it has to be remembered that the unit was in flux most of the season - what with trading Collins during the bye and trading for Van Noy to take his spot - and they really didn't start to gel as a unit until their playoff run, but even then, it wasn't seamless.

This season, however, the corps starts fully stocked and ready to roll - and the competition for roster spots will bring out the best and cause the cream to rise to the top - and maybe, just maybe, this set of linebackers won't be a weak spot for the defense any longer...

The Art Of Football - Part 1: Brady's Super Bowl Performance Showed He's Far From Finished

Tom Brady is filthy.

Not just your standard-brand, slip and fall in the mud filthy - no, Tom Brady is rolling around in the pen with the swine, hanging out in the shadows of an alley, no-you-cannot-go-out-with-my-daughter filthy - and if anyone thinks that he's not, all those people have to do is watch the last six minutes of regulation and overtime of Super Bowl 51...

Brady's perfect throw to Amendola

...and if anyone doubts that Brady still has the tools to play at a high level, all one has to do is watch the throws the man made in overtime to rip the hearts out of the collective Falcons' defense.

Entering his eighteenth season, Brady can still make all of the throws required of an NFL quarterback - and not just make the throws, but to fire them into a tight window like a boss and also take a little bit off of a throw to drop it into a bucket over the coverage.  The most amazing thing is, however, that he can do both at the same time.

Absolutely filthy.

In overtime of Super Bowl 51, and after throwing nearly sixty passes to that point in overcoming a twenty-five point deficit, Brady made two of the sickest throws a football fan will ever see.

After completing a short toss to running back James White, Brady dropped back on a second and four from his own 31 yard line, initially looking up the seam to freeze the single high safety in his tracks then looked to Danny Amendola running an intermediate out pattern to the strong side...

...throwing a dart with just enough tough on it to keep Falcons' cornerback Brian Poole from making a play on the ball, but with just enough velocity to put the ball right on Amendola's hands on the right hashmark, gaining fourteen yards and setting up the Patriots just shy of midfield.

The very next play, Brady went to the weakside, patiently waiting for wide receiver Chris Hogan to sell a fly pattern up the left sideline to Atlanta corner Jalen Collins, then firing a missile five yards behind Hogan, who planted his lead foot and broke back towards the ball, which found Hogan's midsection just a split-second before Collins could get his hand in to break it up.

On both plays, the cornerbacks had perfect, tight coverage, and on both plays Brady pit the ball into a window so tight that to miss by a a fraction of an inch in any direction could have spelled disaster.

Even his next throw to Julian Edelman was on a line that you could have hung your clothes on, hitting the receiver right in traffic to set up a chain of events that included a pass interference call on Falcons' linebacker De'Vondre Campbell on the goal line and White's subsequent game winning strong-side sweep.

Those were not the kinds of throws made by a quarterback on his last legs, like Broncos' quarterback Peyton's wounded ducks in Super Bowl 50, where he was fortunate to be supported by a defense that forced four turnovers, two of them inside the Carolina Panthers red zone, and scored a touchdown themselves on a fumble recovery in the end zone.

The 17 points supplied, essentially and literally, by the Broncos' defense in that game turned out to be plenty to mask Manning's ineptitude and send him into retirement a winner - but Brady wasn't facing a middling offense that was easily intimdated and who couldn't hold onto the football.  The Atlanta Falcons gave the Patriots defense all they could handle, yet could only score 21 points against them...

...though they did supply the turning point in the game with a Dont'a Hightower strip sack of Atlanta's Matt Ryan that gave Brady a short field to turn a blowout into a one-score game, setting the stage for Brady's epic display of clutch passing.

Many in the media doubted Brady when he said last season that he could play well into his forties, but no one on either sideline in the Super Bowl had doubts about his abilities, even after he suffered through what may have been the worst first half of football that he had played all season - except maybe from Falcons' receiver Mohamed Sanu, who was captured commenting on the sidelines to fellow pass catcher Taylor Gabriel that the Patriots hadn't seen anything like what they were facing.

"It's Tom Brady, though." Gabriel replied matter-of-factly.

Sanu thought for a moment then replied, "I know, I'm never comfortable.  We're about to put 40 up on their ass."

Well, forty points would have won the game for sure, but instead the Patriots put up 31 unanswered points on Atlanta in the space of about twenty minutes, and ripped the Lombardi Trophy out of their hands like a street thug would a gold watch off an unsuspecting tourist.

So, Brady is going to be around for a little while longer, which means different things to different people.  For the rest of teams in the NFL and their fans, it means that the Patriots will remain the team to beat for the foreseeable future.  For Patriots' fans it means that the chance for a another trophy or two is not just a possibility, but a probability...

...but for backup Jimmy Garoppolo, Brady's continued excellence presents him with a bit of a quandary.

Garoppolo is heading into the final year of his rookie contract, and is set to hit the open market in free agency after the 2017 season, ready to cash in on what will be sure to be one of the more lucrative deals ever handed out to a seasoned clipboard holder - so many were questioning why the Patriots haven't been inclined to deal Garoppolo this offseason to try and get value out of him now instead of letting him walk for nothing next offseason.

The answer to that lies in the history of professional football, and it appears that New England is ready to franchise tag the Eastern Illinois product if they can't come to some sort of agreement with him to compel him to wait for his opportunity in Foxborough, because judging from their actions leading up to and including the draft, the Patriots don't want to deal Garoppolo, no matter the price.

And why should they?  In Garoppolo, they have a ready-made heir to Tom Brady already under contract, and while Brady is firm in his resolve to play well into his 40's, all it will take is one significant injury - and without a quarterback to fall back on, the Patriots' championship aspirations take a momentous hit - and history is replete with examples.

For instance, when Trent Green went down in the 1999 preseason, what would the Rams have done without Kurt Warner?  How about in 1971 when Roger Staubach replaced an ineffective Craig Morton in Dallas? How about Jim Plunkett for Dan Pastorini in 1980?  Jeff Hostettler for Phil Simms in 1990? Trent Dilfer for Tony Banks in 2000?  All of those teams went on to win championships with their backups.

Of course, how can Patriots' fans forget a guy named Tom Brady coming off the bench in 2001 to lead the Patriots to their first title?

But if you want a more recent example of what can happen if a team doesn't plan properly for injury, all one has to do is to look at what happened to the Oakland Raiders last season, when Derek Carr went down in week 16 with a broken fibula and all they had to fall back on was Matt McGloin and Connor Cook, who combined for two touchdowns and four interceptions as Oakland lost their regular season finale...

...at the same time losing the AFC West and a chance at homefield advantage, then went to Houston as a wild card and got thumped by a Texans team that had Brock Osweiller at quarterback.  If the Raiders had actually employed a decent backup - McGloin had been a career clipboard holder and Cook was a rookie - they might have had the advantage over every other AFC team, including New England.

As has been said numerous times, Jimmy Garoppolo may be the best backup in the NFL, and it is obvious that his value to the forward thinking Patriots as an insurance policy against an aging Brady is worth more than a couple of draft picks or future considerations.

The Patriots have no holes in their lineup to speak of, and their depth is better than just about anyone else's in the league, barring perhaps at defensive end and at offensive guard, and now that the draft is over, the options that the Patriots have in replacing incumbent talent with a college kid are narrow indeed, no matter the position.

In the end, the Patriots are loaded - as loaded as any franchise in any city in recent memory - a literal juggernaut with the greatest quarterback who ever played the game, playing at a level and with a confidence that has never been witnessed before.

That in itself is enough to generate awe from every one of their opponents, but when you include the ridiculous talent that head ball coach Bill Belichick has assembled around Brady, it becomes downright frightening - even if Garoppolo is forced into the lineup.

Needless to say, the New England Patriots are set at quarterback.

Next: Part 2, previewing the Patriots running backs

Assessing The Patriots' Roster With Draft Looming

The New England Patriots have 65 players on their preseason roster, 25 short of the 90 man limit heading into offseason workouts and, ultimately, training camp - and what you see thus far is pretty much what Patriots' fans are liable to get when camp breaks in early September.

Hightower and Roberts in Super Bowl

After all, the Patriots have already had their "draft", per se, as they have traded their top draft capital to New Orleans and Carolina for wide receiver Brandin Cooks and defensive end Kony Ealy, respectively - not to mention that in free agency they picked up another defensive end in Lawrence Guy, cornerback Stephon Gilmore and running back Rex Burkhead, leaving them with an early third-round selection as their first pick of the 2017 draft.

With so many camp spots left to fill, and with so few draft picks in which to fill them, there are many opportunities for undrafted rookies and marginal veteran talents to earn a surprise spot on the roster or on the practice squad.

Quarterbacks (3)

Tom Brady
Jimmy Garoppolo
Jacoby Brissett

Jimmy Clipboard isn't going anywhere, hammering home the notion that he is viewed to be the future of the franchise.  Many writers and fans find it curious that the team isn't willing to part with Garoppolo to gain value for him in the final year of his rookie contract, but all these folks have to do is look around the league to see teams that have everything else in place, but aren't as successful as they should be because they don't have a franchise quarterback...

Chances of drafting a quarterback: Zero

Candidates for draft if Garoppolo dealt: Central Michigan's Cooper Rush

Possible veteran signings if Garoppolo dealt: Matt McGloin (Oakland), 

Running Backs (7)

James White

Dion Lewis
Rex Burkhead
*Mike Gillislee
Brandon Bolden
D.J. Foster
James Develin
Glenn Gronkowski

With the only question mark being whether or not the Bills will match New England's offer sheet to Gillislee, this is a solid group that will be pared down to five players at final cutdowns - bad news for Gronkowski and possibly Foster...and anyone who had designs of being drafted by the team.

Chances of drafting a running back: If Gillislee stays, minimal.  If Gillislee remains with Buffalo, very good.

Candidates being Wyoming's Brian Hill, Pitt's James Connor, Wisconsin's Dare Ogunbowale, Boise State's Jeremy McNichols

Veterans that could be signed include LeGarrette Blount (NE), Adrian Peterson (Minn), Justin Forsett (Balt)

Wide Recievers (8)

Julian Edelman
Danny Amendola
Chris Hogan
Malcolm Mitchell
Brandin Cooks
Devin Lucien
Matthew Slater
De'Andrew White

How many receivers does a team actually need?  A better question for Patriots' fans may be, how many very good receivers does a team actually need?

The Patriots generally keep four receivers on the 53 man roster - not counting Slater who is a receiver by label only - but this season it looks like it's going to be six, because who do you cut?  Certainly not Cooks, whom Belichick gave up a first round draft pick for, not Edelman nor Hogan.  Amendola is as clutch as clutch can be and took a serious pay cut to stay with the team and Malcolm Mitchell qualifies as an emerging threat bordering on stardom...

Chances of drafting a receiver: Zero

Tight Ends (4)

Rob Gronkowski
Dwayne Allen
Rob Housler
Matt Lengel

Gronkowski is perhaps the greatest mismatch in the league today when he's healthy, while Allen has never lived up to his full potential as a hybrid, move tight end, and may not get the touches to do much more in Foxborough, as the pass catching talent on the roster is among the league's best, and certainly the most versatile...

...which is even worse news for Housler, who is a receiver only and never saw a man he could block.  Lengel has a chance to stick on the roster due to his blocking prowess, but given all of the aforementioned talent on the roster, his spot is nowhere close to being guaranteed.

Chances of drafting a tight end: 50/50, if the Patriots feel they need to develop a long-term player.

Candidates being Virginia Tech's Bucky Hodges, Ashland's Adam Shaheen, Washington's Darrell Daniels.


Offensive Tackles (5)

Nate Solder
LaAdrian Waddle
Marcus Cannon
Cam Fleming
Michael Williams

Solder had a terrible first half of last season, but came on at the end, while Cannon had such a great season that he was named a second-team All Pro.  Solder's cap hit is enormous this season, and if his 2017 is anything like the second half of last season, he will be demanding huge dollars.  Cannon turned in an excellent performance and is under contract for the foreseeable future.

Fleming is invaluable as a swing tackle, while Waddle is apparently fragile, but a decent depth option if healthy.  Williams is actually a massive tight end converted to tackle - but none would be able to fill Solder's shoes in the event of emergency or attrition.

Chances of drafting an offensive tackle: Almost certain

Candidates being Troy's Antonio Garcia, Florida State's Roderick Johnson, Texas A&M's Avery Gennesey, Bucknell's Julie'n Davenport, Alabama State's Jylan Ware.

Available veteran tackles: Ryan Clady (Den), Sebastian Vollmer (NE)

Offensive Guards (5)

Joe Thuney
Shaq Mason
Chase Farris
Chris Barker
Jamil Douglass

Thuney was roughed up in pass protection in his rookie year, but Mason made great strides and was the most improved player on the team.  Behind those two are huge question marks and untested depth with the release of Tre' Jackson last week due to injury concerns.  This could be Barker's chance to finally ascend from the Practice squad, but the Patriots likely won't take any chances and are likely to pick up another guard through the draft or free agency.

Chances of drafting a guard: Certain

Candidates being Pitt's Dorian Johnson, LSU's Ethan Pocic, Western Michigan's Taylor Moton, Utah's Isaac Asiata, Texas A&M's Jermaine Eluemunor, TCU's Aviante Collins.

Available veteran guards: Mike Harris (Minn), Jahari Evans (NO)

Centers (2)

David Andrews
Ted Karras

Both players are mean scrappers.  No need to upset that apple cart.  In a pinch, both Mason and Thuney have experience at center, so the position should be set.

Chances of drafting a center: Zero

Defensive Tackles (5)

Alan Branch
Malcolm Brown
Vincent Valentine
Woodrow Hamilton
Darius Kilgo

Branch, Brown and Valentine represent one of the best interior rotations in the NFL, and Hamilton is a project with tremendous upside.  When New England goes into their three-man line in the Big Nickel variation ends Trey Flowers and Lawrence Guy reduce down to become effective five-technique rushers.

Chances of drafting a defensive tackle: Slim

Available veteran tackles: Jared Odrick (Jac), Sen"Derrick Marks (Jac)

Defensive Ends (5)

Trey Flowers
Rob Ninkovich
Geneo Grissom
Kony Ealy
Lawrence Guy

Flowers is on the verge of superstardom, which means the Patriots need to extend him quickly to avoid the inevitable contract squabbles.  Ninkovich is a warrior with lots of miles on him, but still a capable edge setter while Ealy is young, but mostly a situational edge rusher.  Guy is an unknown and underrated five and seven technique end who graded out as PFF's number ten rated edge setter last season.

Depth is certainly a concern, and the best case scenario is for the Patriots to bring in an all-purpose end to compete for three-down duties.

Chances of drafting a defensive end: Certain

Candidates being Wisconsin's T.J. Watt, Florida State's DeMarcus Walker, Ohio's Tarell Basham, Youngstown State's Derek Rivers, Villnova's Tanoh Kpassagnon.

Available veteran edge defenders: none of consequence


Linebackers (6)

Dont'a Hightower
Kyle Van Noy
Shea McClellin
Elandon Roberts
Trevor Bates
Jonathan Freeney

The re-signing of Hightower augments the presence of Van Noy and McClellin to form an intriguing linebacking corps with plenty of interior depth with Roberts and Freeny.  If there is a need, it is for a cover backer, which always seems to be a need in New England, who typically drops a safety down onto the second level to handle those duties on passing downs.

Chances of drafting a linebacker: 50/50

Candidates being Louisville's Josh Harvey-Clemons, Houston's Tyus Bowser.

Available veteran linebackers: Perry Riley (Oak), Gerald Hodges (SF)


Cornerbacks (6)

Stephon Gilmore
Malcolm Butler
Eric Rowe
Cyrus Jones
Jonathan Jones
Justin Coleman

Gilmore, Butler and Rowe represent the best set of corners in the league - if they remain together.  At this point, it doesn't make any sense to break them up, giving Belichick a nice problem in finding enough playing time for all three, plus getting some dime work in for Cyrus Jones and Justin Coleman.

Butler may or may not still be on the trading block after signing his very affordable tender, and if he does indeed leave, the unproven depth behind Gilmore and Rowe may be enough to make the Patriots look at corners in the draft.

Chances of drafting a cornerback: 50/50, depending on Butler's situation

Candidates being Michigan's Jourdan Lewis, Clemson's Cordrea Tankersley, West Virginia's Rasul Douglas, Houston's Howard Wilson, Central Florida's Shaquill Griffin, Temple's Nate Hairston, Michigan's Channing Stribling and Utah's Brian Allen

Available veteran cornerbacks: Darrelle Revis (NYJ), Alterraun Verner (TB)


Safeties (6)

Devin McCourty
Patrick Chung
Duron Harmon
Nate Ebner
Jordan Richards
Brandon King

McCourty, Chung and Harmon represent the best set of safeties in the league, and allow Belichick to run his Big Nickel without fear.  Ebner and King are special teams standouts, leaving only the thus-far disappointing Jordan Richards as depth, and with Chung reaching 30 years old during camp, the need for a strong safety is great.

Some of the corners already mentioned fir the Patriots need for a physical box safety with coverage ability - Tankersley, Griffin and Allen come to mind, but there are other candidates coming out of college as safeties.

Chances of drafting a safety: Good

Candidates include Louisville's Josh Harvey-Clemons, UConn's Obi Melifonwu, Florida's Quincey Wilson, Utah's Marcus Williams, Air Force's Weston Steelhammer

Available veteran safeties: Duke Ihenacho (Wash), Shamarko Thomas (Pitt)


Kickers (3)

Joe Cardona
Ryan Allen
Stephen Gostkowski

Cardona and Allen continue their steady play, and Gostkowski is decently reliable on field goals, but extra points seem to give him trouble - and being that he's missed extra points in championship games two seasons in a row has to be disconcerting to Belichick.  That said, it is still a longshot for the team to bring in any competition, though it is certainly possible.

Chances of drafting a kicker: Remote

Patriots' Prodigal Son Returns - Hightower Re-signing Example Of Belichick Letting Market Set Price

"He arose and went to his father. But when he was still far off, his father saw him and was moved with compassion, and ran towards him, and fell on his neck, and kissed him." - Luke 15:20

Bill Belichick may be a fatherly figure to some players on his team - and a harsh taskmaster, to be sure - as he genuinely cares about his charges, but when prodigal son Dont'a Hightower returned to Foxborough from his free agency tour, it's hard to imagine that Belichick ran to him, and even harder to imagine him falling on his neck.

For certain there was no kissing involved.

What was involved was $43.5 million - $19 million guaranteed - that will keep the heart and soul of the Patriots' defense in New England for the next four seasons and, at the same time, solidified the middle of a unit that led the league in scoring defense in 2016 and has, by all accounts, become even better while he was being wined and cupcaked by potential suitors.

But to assess how happy Belichick should be to have Hightower back in the fold, one only has to entertain the thought that the Dark Master eshewed the franchise tag for his defensive signal caller and told him to go see what he could find on the open market.  He did the same thing for Julian Edelman a few years back and, to a different degree, Wes Welker a few years earlier than that.

Letting the market set the price for players has long been a tactic utilized by Belichick, as he puts into play advanced metrics, gaining objective knowledge of a player's productivity, multiplying that by age and experience and injury history to form an estimation of that player's future production - then he factors in outside elements such as what the player's fit is in other programs.

Almost always, a player that is in the Patriots' program is there because it is his best fit, as Belichick's philosophy in regard to team building is to bring in players who can expand his options in the playbook rather than players whom he can mold into it.  It's not a subtle difference, but at times players become enamored with the notion that they can take their talent anywhere and be successful...

...and while that has been true for a handful of former-Patriots, it is the extreme exception rather than the rule.  Hightower probably could have gone to some other team - particularly one that runs a 3-4 base defense - and put up huge numbers in that the formation actually takes advantage of the downhill playmaking skills like his.

But so does the Patriots' philosophy in their 4-2-5 approach, a philosophy that helped Hightower to be recognized as the best blitzing linebacker in the NFL.

In the 4-2-5, also known as the Big Nickel, Hightower becomes a chess piece that defensive coordinator Matt Patricia can move around to present matchup problems for the opposing offense.  He can do this because both of his defensive tackles demand double teams which occupy four of the five offensive linemen, allowing Hightower to reduce down to what amounts to a stand-up defensive end with no one but a strong-side tackle to contend with.

The results are often game-changing plays, such as his strip sack of Matt Ryan in the Super Bowl, when neither the tackle nor the running back who stayed in for pass protection knew what to do with him lined up on the edge.

And that, as much as anything else, was due to the Patriots utilizing Hightower's skill set to open up plays in the defensive philosophy - and anyone who doesn't think the Big Nickel is such a big deal only has to look at the deals given to both defensive tackle Alan Branch and centerfield-safety Duron Harmon to know exactly how crucial the formation - and Hightower - is to the scheme.

Other teams realize this as well, but other teams didn't spend top draft capital collecting college players known to be "marginal" talents by expert evaluators in a general sense, but possessed the skill sets to implement a defensive philosophy not seen in the league in almost five decades, and never with the success in which Belichick has run it.

Part of that included Hightower, who was seen as a perfect fit as a "Will" linebacker in a 3-4 due to his ability to scrape off of blocks taken on by the "Mike" and quickly get to the ball, but what was so intriguing about Hightower was that he was just as successful with his hand in the dirt as a defensive end, and had the lateral range to set the edge in the running game and blow up screen plays in the passing game.

So, in reality, there really isn't a linebacker quite like Hightower anywhere else in the league, as evidenced by his market forming slowly, and only the dysfunctional, cupcake-wielding Jets and the desperate "we-can-never-stop-the-Patriots-offense" Steelers showed interest, both of whom recognized - like every other team in the league - that he wasn't going anywhere but back to where he truly fit...

...and also evidenced by the fact that the deal Hightower eventually ended up signing was essentially the same one that Belichick offered him at the start of last season, tacking on an extra $750,000 a year to show his appreciation for a man that had done so much for the success of the New England Patriots - and this after showing Hightower the ultimate respect of allowing the market dictate what his worth was, and where he should be.

After all, in professional football, prodigal sons of Hightower's talent don't always return home - but Belichick knew this one would.

Hightower's Fit In New England Isn't Necessarily His Fit Elsewhere

The first big wave of free agency has crested and broken on the shore, yet Dont'a Hightower is left waiting for another big breaker.

Chances are, what he's going to get is being caught in a rip tide that brings him back to Massachusetts.

The New England Patriots' wayward son was given the opportunity to seek a blockbuster deal on the open market, looking to cash in on what has to be the most under-the-radar elite tenure in the National Football League for the past couple of seasons, but has thus far not found the kind of money that some of his former teammates have.

For example, former Patriots' defensive end Chandler Jones just signed a monster deal with the Arizona Cardinals - a five-year, $83 million contract with $53 million guaranteed - to remain in the desert, while former teammate Jamie Collins signed a mega-extension (four-years, $50 million with $26 million guaranteed) with Cleveland to anchor their linebacking corps.

But the Patriots dealt those two away, not wanting to deal with attitudes or protracted negotiations for the type of money that they could possibly command in free agency.

The Patriots feel differently about Hightower.

Surely, Hightower is worth at least what Collins got, yet he remains treading water - and Bill Belichick remains waiting to reel him in when the time is right.

The Alabama product is already a legend in New England, making game-saving plays in two different Super Bowls, plays that were directly responsible for two of the five Lombardi trophies now residing at One Patriots Place in Foxborough - and both plays demonstrate what makes Hightower the best big game linebacker in the league.

In Super Bowl 49 against Seattle, the Seahawks were down by four to the Patriots with under a minute left in the game, but had driven down to the New England five-yard line and were poised to take the lead.  The Seahawks had the leagues best rushing attack and two time outs working in their favor, and on first and goal from the five, the handoff went to the league's best running back, Marshawn Lynch...

...and "Beast Mode", as Lynch is called, cut through a hole between left guard and left tackle and appeared to have a clear path to the end zone, but Hightower, who was met by Seattle's massive left tackle Russel Okung at the three and seemed to be pinned to the inside, instead fought through the block and got a shoulder on Lynch's right thigh, dropping him at the one.

The rest, as they say, resides in Patriots' lore as on the very next play cornerback Malcolm Butler intercepted a Russell Wilson pass to preserve the Patriots' Championship - and his strip sack of Atlanta's Matt Ryan in Super Bowl 51 set in motion the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history.

But as we know so well, head ball coach Bill Belichick doesn't pay players based on past accomplishments, he pays them for what the market will bear in time with his future value to the team - so based on Hightower's age (27), experience in the system and leadership qualities, shouldn't them value him enough to lay out huge money for the guy?

The Patriots have plenty of cap space remaining ($34 million as of this writing) to make a deal with Hightower, as numbers being thrown around by football experts estimate that a fair deal for the linebacker would be in line with Luke Kuechly money, five years worth $61 million with half of that guaranteed - or roughly $12.2 million per year.

That's a significant increase in the extension proposal that the team offered Hightower at the start of the 2016 season, rumored to have been in the neighborhood of $10 million per season, but nearly as much as they would have paid him on the franchise tag, which would have been a little over $15 million - a little pricey considering that the tag includes the top average salaries for both inside and outside linebackers, of which outside linebackers make significantly more money.

That said, why didn't the Patriots just franchise him, or at least use the transition tag to make sure that they would be given the chance to match anyone else's offer?  Part of that has to do with Belichick's well-known respect for his players, combined with his desire to stay away from situations that take away his leverage in negotiations.

Belichick's respect for his players prompted him giving Hightower the opportunity to offer his services on the open market and to collect offers for said services.  Placing him on the franchise tag would have prevented him from doing so and may have lead into some acrimonious feelings between player and management - end even though the transition tag would have been feasible as well...

...but that could have ended up costing the team more in the long run, as to retain Hightower, the Patriots would have been forced to match any offer put on the table by another team.  Another way Belichick could have gone would have been to place him under the non-exclusive franchise tag, in which Hightower could have negotiated with another team and the Patriots would have the right to match the offer.

The limitations of the non-exclusive tag are binding in favor of the Patriots in this case, as if a team made an offer and the Patriots refused to match, New England would receive the team's first round draft pick, plus the following year's first-rounder.

So allowing Hightower to reach the open market was the only way to keep everyone happy.  Belichick could let the market dictate Hightower's worth and also give him the opportunity to make a counter offer without being locked into a certain dollar amount - but the situation remains fluid as Hightower is still out there, and being courted by a few teams.

But for a player as dynamic and versatile as Hightower is, why hasn't he signed elsewhere?

The popular opinion is that he's biding his time and waiting for a bidding war to start, while still others believe that Hightower has over-estimated his worth on the open market - ala Wes Welker - and wants to give the market more time to develop.

The truth is probably in the middle somewhere, but at least one AFC general manager has said that he expects that Hightower will return to New England on a team-friendly deal - not because the market isn't there for him, but because he fits in with what New England does on defense, and that wouldn't be true for many other teams.

Coming out of college, Hightower didn't have a true position.  Some saw him as strong-side linebacker, some as a defensive end - but Nick Saban, his coach at Alabama considered him a pure inside linebacker in a 3-4 alignment, playing the "scraper" position.  The scraper will be the more athletic of the two inside linebackers and by definition will plug the gap left by the "Mike" linebacker in the running game, and will blitz in the gap left by double teams on defensive linemen in the passing game.

They also will shadow mobile quarterbacks.  Hightower does all of these things, but does so from the weird variety of alignments that Belichick and his defensive coordinator Matt Patricia dream up - but he is most effective when the defense is aligned in what is known as the Big Nickel, which uses an extra safety that reduces down onto the second level and becomes, essentially, a weakside linebacker, taking on the "scraper" duties and allowing Hightower to flow to the football unabated.

Through the usage of this alignment, Hightower has become one of the best blitzing linebackers in football and almost always seems to be in the right place at the right time - one only has to revisit Super Bowls 49 and 51 to see prime examples of this.  But the Patriots have incorporated his skill set into their defensive scheme in order to free him up to do the good work that he has...

...and the fact of the matter is that there are very few teams, if any, who can plug Hightower into their defense and count on the same sort of elite production, given the fact that he will most likely be exposed to more obstacles on his way to the football.

To further elaborate, in the past few days since the start of free agency, the Patriots have re-signed two of their most important core players in order to keep the Big Nickel viable - safety Duron Harmon, who has proven himself to be one of the premier centerfielders in a league full of single-high safeties, and defensive tackle Alan Branch, who commands double teams and creates gaps for linebackers to flow to.

The Big Nickel is not possible without Harmon's sideline-to-sideline agility and instinctive angles to the play, nor is it possible without Branch taking on double teams.  In Belichick's philosophy, every player is asked to do one job - maybe two - and most players are versatile enough to be schemed into the game plan differently each week, and that goes for Hightower as well.

There is no doubt that Hightower deserves a pay raise, but in the end, he is part of a winning formula on a New England that will figure out a way to go on without him.  They value him enough to have offered him eight figures annually as part of an extension, then showed him enough respect to let him hit the open market to discover what his value was around the league.

A few years back, the aforementioned Wes Welker over-valued himself on the open market and ended up burning enough bridges to make his return to New England impossible - a sentiment echoed by Patriots' owner Robert Kraft who stated that if it was just a matter of a million or two to keep Welker in the fold, that wouldn't have been a deterrent to bringing him back, but his mouth and attitude were.

It looks as if Hightower's value is well below what he could have made with the various tags, but possibly more than the $10 million a year he was offered last offseason, and Hightower hasn't burned any bridges and has, in fact, kept in close contact with the team as he travels about - so the possibility of him landing back home appears to be very good...

...so if New England ponies up a Kuechly-like contract that will give him $12 million annually, it should satisfy all concerned, then Hightower and the Patriots can get on with the business of football, and leave all of this money nonsense in the past.