Patriots Enter New League Year Crippled By Cap-Stressed Exodus

Previously published on out sister blog, Mainely Patriots

23 March 2020

2:47am, Lewiston Maine

A heavy drizzle and sporadic fog blankets the ghost town tonight, gloom on top of gloom as the world deals with a naturally-occurring biological attack and the residents have all but hunkered down for what might be a lot longer than the two weeks that the talking heads initially preached.

I just got back from a drive in the weather, a brief but needed respite in the middle of bad craziness. Other than a small crowd gathered in a vacant lot on the corner of Bartlett and Walnut, who appeared to be drinking heavily and doing that vampire dance from The Lost Boys, the streets were bare...

...except for a few persistent, desperate-looking hookers who are discovering the hard way that there's not much job security in times like these when people know that sex could lead to death.

It's a life-altering event for every soul on the planet, and everything has changed. Everything, that is, except the well-meaning loons that run the National Football League, whose decision to open their free agency period as scheduled has proven to be a powerful respite from the nasty little bugs floating around right outside my window. Business as usual, says the league, and all while observing the social distancing mandate from the CDC.

Of course, the fact that New England's favorite son has defected for the warm climes of Florida has many football fans in the region feeling like they've been kicked in the gut while they were already down - but Tom Brady's departure and the media attention it's getting is masking the real story, that being their defense is being stripped down to bare bones, with only the essential core players remaining.

NFL Network rubs it in by showing every single Super Bowl appearance by Brady in their entirety, all while scrolling his name constantly across the bottom of the screen. It's nothing personal. Just the biggest news story during a period when it is needed most, even if the distraction is for a few seconds of anger, it's worth it. It was inevitable, Brady leaving. In fact, in my estimation, it came three years too late.

But that is for another time, very soon, but not now because it doesn't matter anymore. With Brady hogging the headlines, the story of how head coach Bill Belichick is going to have to build his 2020 incarnation of the Patriots has been overlooked. The roster has been stripped of so many core players that the offseason philosophy has been reduced to that of what almost all other teams have endured during the past two decades.

Because during that span, the Patriots haven't had to make wholesale personnel moves in so many different positions as they are faced with this season, what with both of their Pro Bowl quality outside linebackers and their Big Nickel safety gone to other teams.

In fact, the Patriots have lost so many impact players in the initial phases of free agency that it reminds me of a quote by the late, great Hunter S. Thompson, who once documented a trip to a doctor years back about excessive sweating, but when he told the doctor about his normal intake of illicit drugs and alcohol, the doctor responded by telling Thompson that they would wait for him to break down, then work with what was left.

That's what Belichick is faced with: Working with what's left and trying to add some pieces to at least be competitive - and maybe that's what Belichick really wanted to do in the first place. Maybe he wants to get away from the eternal chatter about how his success was not only tied to the head start he inherited from previous Patriots' coaches, but also the questions surrounding whether that success was tied in large part to Brady.

But it's not good enough to just go forward with a new quarterback surrounded by the same supporting cast, Belichick wants to build his team from the ground up. If he is successful and the Patriots somehow make the playoffs, maybe that would add to his already cemented in stone legacy.

Is that important? You bet, considering that, with six Super Bowl titles under their belts making him them winningest head coach and quarterback combination in football history, each has an opportunity to break away from the generation-old question as to whether the Patriots' dynasty was the result of Belichick's coaching or Brady's play. Really, it's a combination of both, but now that Brady is with another team with a chance to make that argument go in his favor.

It's a dumb argument, but when gearing down to the end of two certain Hall-of-Fame careers, neither man want's the question to go unanswered.

Brady will have the easier route to success, going to a Tampa Bay team that is loaded on offense and with an improving defense, while Belichick has to build off a core roster that is the most aged in the league and has lost several key players.

That is not a recipe for success, at least not short-term, but defying the odds with innovative game plans is exactly what Belichick does, and exactly the challenge he wants. Brady wanted elite weapons to throw to, and that's exactly what Tampa provides him.

There are some that felt like Belichick was limiting Brady last season by surrounding him with rookies and cast-offs, and maybe he was. He certainly did very little to replace retired tight end Rob Gronkowski, while letting proven talent at receiver leave in free agency. He did bring in Antonio Brown to catch passes from Brady, but the troubled Brown lasted only two weeks in Foxborough before being released.

Still, Brady was certainly good enough to win with the cast that he had, but injuries along the offensive line doomed the offense. That wasn't Belichick's doing, but it made Brady look ordinary and even below par - and it didn't help that Brady bitched and bristled about the anemic offense and essentially shut down the passing game by hesitating to throw to the aforementioned rookies and cast-offs.

So Brady whined and Belichick became even more tight-lipped than ever, and all the while team owner Bob Kraft, already hiding from the media due to being implicated in a massage parlor sting, said nothing. Certainly there were private conversations between all parties and all had plenty to say - but we'll never know the level of animosity.

In the interim, fans and media around the country are looking for someone to blame for Brady packing up and leaving Foxborough.

Some blame Belichick for not appeasing Brady with weapons. Some blame Brady for his publicly negative attitude and dour expressions. But the real culprit is Kraft, who considers Brady as one of his kids, and refused to allow Belichick to trade Brady three years ago and keep the one-time heir apparent, Jimmy Garoppolo.

Had Belichick been allowed to deal Brady to San Francisco instead of Garoppolo, it goes to figure that Brady would have garnered at least a first round draft pick, and the Patriots would be rolling forward with no questions about the quarterback position and with a roster that played to his strengths.

Some would argue that the Patriots wouldn't have their sixth Super Bowl title in that scenario - which is the goal, after all - but who's to say that Garoppolo wouldn't have been able to pull that off?

We'll never know, but what we know now is that the Patriots have to move forward without either, leaving second-year, seldom-played Jarrett Stidham as the quarterback and, due to Belichick's desperate wheeling and dealing last season to provide Brady with targets he would actually throw to, a significantly reduced stock of draft picks...

...not to mention (though I will), that Brady's defection carries a $13.5 million dead money hit on the Patriots' salary cap - not crippling, but almost.  The result has been a mass exodus of core players in free agency, as the Patriots just cannot afford to offer them the contracts that other teams can, and have.

The only way that Belichick could respond to this significant handicap was to start dealing players to other teams, sending Big Nickel safety Duron Harmon to Detroit for a mid-round draft pick, and there is probably more players on the way out in the same manner.

That process is still in it's infancy, and it will interesting to see how it turns out. But one thing is for sure: The Patriots will look much different this season.

Garoppolo Turns In His Clipboard For A Starting Gig In San Francisco

Jimmy Clipboard is gone.

In his place, no one can be sure except Bill Belichick and his collection of operatives, but the picture is much more clear in San Francisco, where Jimmy Garoppolo has ascended from Prince-in-waiting status with the Patriots to Top Cat with the 49ers as their starting quarterback - at least through the end of this season.

Garoppolo was traded to the San Francisco 49ers in exchange for a 2018 second round draft pick on Monday evening, leaving a void in the Patriots' quarterback room and on their depth chart, as Belichick will briefly be without a backup to legendary signal caller Tom Brady.

Reaction in New England has been a mixed bag of Halloween candy - some liking the move as a way to get something for Grop before he hits free agency while others were running around like chicken little, wondering when the sky will start falling - the common thread being curiosity, not as to why he was dealt, but why now?

There were unsubstantiated rumors during the offseason and approaching the 2017 Draft that the Cleveland Browns had made Belichick a "Corleone" offer for the Eastern Illinois product - and apparently there was some sort of an offer, but reportedly not an offer he couldn't refuse - so Belichick decided to hold onto Garoppolo.

At the time, I first mused that if Belichick was going to deal Garoppolo before the season, that "The smart money has Garoppolo going to San Francisco for a second round draft pick and a myriad of mid-round picks." - but also that if Belichick didn't deal him then, that he was holding out until the trade deadline, hoping that some quarterback-needy team with a shot at the playoffs would emerge with a ridiculous offer.

As it turns out the team was a winless 49ers team with an eye towards the future and plenty of cap space, for the aforementioned second round pick.

Garoppolo is a perfect player to build a team around. He has spent three-plus seasons honing his craft under the tutelage of the greatest quarterback that has ever played the game - with two Super Bowl rings as Brady's understudy as proof of the mastery of his tutor - and is a somewhat proven commodity, having started two games last season filling in for Brady.

He is everything that you could want in a quarterback. He stands tall in the pocket and seems to have a sixth-sense in feeling pressure in the pocket without taking his eyes off of his progression of targets - he's still young, has very little mileage on his body and offers the poise and experience that is seldom found in quarterbacks coming out of college, no matter their draft position.

But what makes Garoppolo a perfect fit for San Francisco's offense is that his eyes are tied to his feet.

Garoppolo has the footwork of a much more experienced quarterback, and was regarded to have the best mechanics coming out of college since Dan Marino came out of Pitt in 1983: his arm always cocked, his feet are always balanced underneath him,  and he moves them in tandem with his eyes so that there is very little wasted movement.

His stance is compact and streamlined, so that when he catches one of his reads open, he can fire quickly - all of these things commenting on the fact that he has the quickest release in the game, following the tenets that made Marino great which his father called "Up and Out", which means to be stand tall in the pocket, have your arm cocked, then when you see your target bring the ball up and fire it out in one motion.


He's no Marino, but he's mobile, young and is movie star handsome - he has the features of a young Christopher Reeve and has been called "Prince Ali" by those who liken his looks to the main character in Disney's classic animated feature Aladdin - all perfect to lead the return of the 49er's franchise to the top of the football world.

And his departure from New England does not come without some regrets within the organization that they couldn't hang onto him for the long run.

"We probably had, in my opinion, the best quarterback situation in the league for the last - let's call it two-and-a-half years." Belichick said on Tuesday morning, "It's just not sustainable give the way things are set up. It's definitely not something we wanted to walk away from and I felt we rode it out as long as we could."

Continuing his soliloquy, Belichick hinted at the cause of the separation, which feeds into the notion that Garoppolo wanted to be a starter in the league now, and would not be pacified with any amount of money to wait for Brady to retire.

"We, over a period of time, explored every option possible to try and sustain it, but just at this point felt like we had to make a decision. It's a very complex situation on multiple levels and this is really the last window that we had and we did what we felt like was best for the team."

So "Jimmy Clipboard" finally becomes "Jimmy Football", and there's not many Patriots' fans that would disagree that the San Francisco 49ers are getting a quality signal caller.

Running Backs Featured For Patriots In Loss To Texans

The New England Patriots running back stable is ridiculously deep.

In fact, it's deeper than anyone thought.

Rex Burkhead shined in his Patriots' debut, hitting the hole hard in his seven carries and displaying a natural catching rhythm that will probably earn him the starting nod when the games start to count, then Dion Lewis and D. J. Foster followed up with impressive performances, but three turnovers by New England signal callers doomed New England to their second preseason loss in as many games...

...dropping a 27-23 decision to the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium on Saturday in a contest that did little to clear up a convoluted depth chart at just about every position, and in some cases - particularly at running back - made the story a little more hazy.

Not from poor play, but from solid effort by all five backs that played and a breakout campaign for Foster who could find himself on the opening day roster if projected power back Mike Gillislee's hamstring lands him on the Injured List, and Brandon Bolden put himself solidly on the map with some opportunistic blasts through the middle of the Texans' run defense.

The thing about preseason games is that the game plan is usually simply to ride the waves and take advantage of each circumstance that comes along as a coaching point - heaven knows there were plenty of those in the second exhibition game for both teams - but it seemed that Patriots' head ball coach Bill Belichick's purpose for his offense was to remain as vanilla as possible, and that means mixing the running game with the short passing game.

And that means the spotlight was squarely on his running backs.

First, it seems he wanted to see how Burkhead handled picking up the blitz in live game action, then how fluid Lewis looked a full year removed from surgery to repair a torn ACL - and he got what he needed when Burkhead stoned an aggressive stunt-blitz on linebacker Brian Cushing to allow quarterback Tom Brady a chance to step into a throw, and Lewis displayed a nice combination of power and elusiveness, planting hard and exploding into the crease.

Typically, where the Patriots' backs did most of their heavy damage was through the air, however, combining for 115 yards and two touchdowns on nine receptions, though their 110 yards on the ground shouldn't be overlooked, nor should the fact that the offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels kept feeding them the ball, their 38 combined touches counting for exactly half of the plays run by the Patriots offense on the evening...

...which included just a few snaps for passing back James White, who is firmly entrenched as the Patriots' go-to guy as he played only with the first-team, then enjoyed the rest of the night watching his stable-mates go to work on the league's top-rated defense.

Quarterback Tom Brady saw his first action of the preseason, playing two series and contributing 69 yards on six completions and a touchdown before yielding to backup Jimmy Garoppolo, who played the majority of the game and had an up-and-down performance, throwing for 145 yards and a touchdown, but also suffered a strip sack and floated a throwaway along the sidelines, having it picked off in comical fashion.

Jacoby Brissett finished the game and showed much better decision-making skills than he did in the first preseason game, but still couldn't finish off a comeback for the second week in a row - and, as a matter of fact, other than the performance of the running backs and some solid work on the interior of the offensive line, the Patriots put in a relatively sloppy performance on offense.

Brady also made a poor decision on a throw to the sidelines which was originally ruled as an interception, but overturned on replay.  He recovered from his near-pick to lead the offense to their first touchdown, finding Burkhead wide open over the middle for a 22-yard pitch and catch in which the Nebraska product displayed smooth route running, soft, sure hands and enough speed to split the seam after the catch and sprint into the end zone untouched.

Garoppolo didn't get the chance to atone for his gaffe along the sidelines as he was replaced by Brissett on the next series, but did offer up an explanation.

" I avoided the D-end at first and was just trying to throw it away, but I didn't get enough on it." Garoppolo said after the game, "It was just a bad play."

Garoppolo also tried to take blame for the strip sack that gave the Texans excellent field position and led to a Houston field goal, and while it is his responsibility to protect the football, being blindsided by an unfettered linebacker has it's consequences.

"It's just my fault.  I'm the quarterback."

Garoppolo did have many more bright moments than dim ones, going 15 of 23 for 145 yards and leading the charge to the Patriots' final score, a 25-yard crosser to Foster, who showed speed and toughness, racing through the secondary after taking the short toss from Garoppolo and breaking the plane of the end zone while fighting through a big shot from safety Eddie Pleasant.

Foster may have had the most impressive night of anyone on the offense, carrying the ball six times for 23 yards and catching four balls for 52 yards and the touchdown, albeit against the second and third levels of the Texans' defense - while Bolden, normally a core special teamer, picked up 33 yards on eight stiff-looking carries.

Brissett also had the ball knocked out of his hand from behind just as he was about to fire one of his rockets into the end zone with time ticking down under one minute to play, the momentum from his throwing motion propelling the ball through the end zone for a touchback to end a Patriots comeback bid seven yards short.

Adding intrigue to the Patriots' high-class running back situation is the mystery surrounding free agent addition Mike Gillislee, whose hamstring injury suffered in OTA's has kept him from participating in practices and, obviously, from games, which is likely the reason behind the rest of the backs being focused on in Saturday night's contest...

...one in which Belichick has to be pleased with the performance of his backfield and confident that they can fulfill their role on offense as dual threats as runners and pass catchers, and may have helped him make up his mind on Gillislee's short-term future in New England.

The upside, of course, is that Belichick can safely place Gillislee on the injured-reserved list with a designation to return, meaning that he can activate the power back in the middle of November after he's had time to let the hamstring properly heal, then unleashing him with fresh legs on worn down opponents during the stretch run to the post-season - possibly opening the door for a guy like Foster to land on the roster in the interim.

When you have a running back kennel that features so much talent, you can afford to do such things.

The Patriots' 53: Knee Jerk Reaction To Thursday's Loss To The Jaguars

Coaching points.

That's what the preseason is all about, putting players in certain situations and to see how they respond to them.  It's not unlike Pavlov's experimentation with conditioned response, only in football the subjects are human beings, and the ringing of a bell doesn't elicit a drooling response.

Well, maybe some drooling is involved, but that is neither here nor there in the grand scheme of football.  What does matter is that players with little or no experience in the professional game are put into actual game situations, giving the coaches a body of work from which to do things like correcting mechanical flaws, improving technique and just plain making things become routine for them.

Jacob Hollister with one of his seven catches

For every player coming out of college that makes a roster in the NFL, there are a dozen others who don't - and much of the difference comes in whether they take to coaching or not.

Players like Jordan Richards and Cyrus Jones have held onto roster spots despite no improvement in their game while players with developmental potential have been cast by the wayside in order to give the two second round draft picks the benefit of their draft position - but this year there are too many good players pushing them and if they don't show vast improvement next Saturday night against the Texans, they could find themselves on the bread lines come September.

But something that has to be remembered is that none of the Patriots starters on either side of the ball played in the game, and the gameday roster was pieced together - the result was a delay in the lineup achieving the type of cohesiveness that allows them to meld with the talents of their teammates, so some of the poor play around the roster can be attributed to that, but some of it, like what is covered in the following position sections, is all technique.

Quarterbacks:  Training camp is pretty much business as usual for Patriots' quarterbacks: Tom Brady looks in mid-season form, Jimmy Garoppolo is "struggling" and Jacoby Brissett is hot and cold.

Hearing that Garoppolo is struggling in training camp is like hearing that the sun always sets in the west - you can count on it, but sure as shooting when the guy gets into an actual game situation, he steps up and delivers.  He explained this very phenomenon a couple of weeks ago by claiming that he takes more chances in practice to put receivers in situations where he can determine such things as what their catch radius is, their willingness to go after high or low balls, etc, etc...

...which he saw plenty of on Thursday night while running for his life behind a make-shift offensive line and throwing to a gaggle of rookie receivers.  He was stuck in neutral in the first quarter while trying to find his gears, but once he did, he put on a show in the second and third quarters.

As far as Brissett is concerned, Belichick sliding past a question in regard to him in his Tuesday presser could be taken as a sign of things to come.  Usually when asked a question about a player, the Dark Master gives his usual, "He's a hard working kid, does what we ask, meow, meow, meow", but when cornered about Brissett and his development in his second camp, Belichick was unusually abrupt, even for him.

"Well, it's a work in progress." Belichick offered hastily. "We'll see."

Yikes! Well, Brissett didn't get much work in the loss to the Jaguars and, in fact, confirmed that his mechanics are still an issue, overthrowing folks badly on anything more than a dump off.  Some believe that Brissett's late entry into the game combined with his poor showing makes him camp fodder, but despite his cryptic evaluation before the game, Belichick isn't going to slice a guy from the roster over this poor outing...

...but if he struggles against the Texans with his mechanics and decision making, you could see the depth chart at quarterback look like it does below:

Tom Brady
Jimmy Garoppolo

Running Backs: Bill Belichick wants to keep the defense guessing, but he knows that he needs more than just an effective running game to complement the passing game.

To truly open up the playbook, he needs a back on the field that can run the ball with authority, willing to pick up the blitz and be a consistent threat out of the backfield in the passing game.  Gone are the days when backs were labeled as power backs or passing backs, as the only label needed for his kennel of young greyhounds is "all-purpose".

But what we saw on Thursday night was Dion Lewis and Brandon Bolden splitting some carries and undrafted rookie free agent LeShun Daniels making a few decent plays down the stretch.  One thing that was consistent with the Patriots over the years is them using their backs as vital cogs in the passing game, and Thursday night was no exception as Lewis worked the flat and D.J. Foster got some good looks over the middle.

Overall, there wasn't anything happening to cause any changes to the list of locked in backs.

James White
Mike Gillislee

Dion Lewis
Rex Burkhead
James Develin

Receivers: The Patriots receivers are a fragile bunch early in camp, with seemingly everyone plagued with one malady or another, all except, that is, for Brandin Cooks who is instead making the defensive backs sick from eating his dust.

But none of the "roster locks" played against the Jaguars, healthy or not, as Thursday night was about exposing the youngsters to the professional game - and in the process, the Patriots were able to get some good film on some prospects, especially much-hyped rookie Austin Carr, who made some dazzling plays on some rockets launched by Garoppolo.

Carr showed some veteran savvy in showing Grop his numbers in the back of the end zone, then showed his athleticism in high-pointing the ball in traffic and coming down with it for six, then pulled a Julio Jones on a toe-tapper along the home sidelines.  Not enough, mind you, to bump a veteran at this stage, but a similar performance against the Texans next Saturday could have impact on the roster.

The one thing that could introduce a youngster to the roster is the injury incurred by special teamer Matthew Slater.  If it is significant enough, Slater could be placed on the IR with a designation to return, giving a player like Carr or Devin Lucien a chance to see the regular season.

Julian Edelman
Brandin Cooks
Chris Hogan
Malcolm Mitchell
Danny Amendola
Matthew Slater (IR)
Austin Carr

Tight Ends: The only question mark for the Patriots' tight ends is whether or not they are going to keep three tight ends on the roster, and if so, who will that third one be?

Gronkowski is a given, and Brady is targeting Allen like a mad man in the scrimmages, but Thursday night was all about the race for the number three tight end, and while rookie Sam Cotton showed up well on the inline blocking mode, it was Jacob Hollister that made the big splash, displaying solid route running and a willingness to break off route and to high-point balls in traffic...

...even taking some nasty shots coming back down to earth that cost the Jaguars 30 yards in personal fouls - and while that is just football, Hollister popping right back up, going back to the huddle and performing again has to be given some serious consideration.

Rob Gronkowski
Dwayne Allen
Jacob Hollister

Offensive Tackles:  Perhaps Belichick was giving us all a lesson in appreciation for the starters on the offensive line as none of them played, leaving Cam Fleming, LaAdrian Waddle and rookie Conor McDermott to shoulder the load as bookends, the the results left us wanting Nate Solder and Marcus Cannon.

Solder, however, is dealing with some mysterious malady and has missed a sizable portion of camp, and whether it is a recurrence of his previous medical issues, be it cancer or torn bicep, the prognosis for the offensive line is not good, if last night's performance has any bearing on the situation.

Now, we don't know what Solder is dealing with, so it would be unfair to speculate, but what we do know is that if he can't go in the regular season, the job will most likely fall to rookie Antonio Garcia who has a nasty streak a mile wide - but while the other tackles had a poor night against the Jaquars pass rush, they did perform well in the running game, all except rookie Conor McDermott, who tried to cut block a would-be tackler on a running play in the first quarter and whiffed badly.

It was good thought, putting McDermott at right tackle as he is a better run blocker than a pass protector, but he did himself no favors last night.

Nate Solder
Marcus Cannon
Cam Fleming
Antonio Garcia
LaAdrien Waddle


Interior Offensive Line: Joe Thuney seems to be figuring out what his lot in football is, as he has shown up as a solid pass protector in camp - which in comparison to his well-documented struggles last season isn't saying a whole lot.  But there seems to be an edge to his game now.

We won't know for certain until he sees the field against the Texans next Saturday night when the Patriots should be starting their regulars - unless they really want Watt, Clowney and company to get free shots at their quarterbacks - and there is no better way to discover where your line is in terms of cohesiveness than going up against the best.

Joe Thuney
Shaq Mason
David Andrews
Ted Karras


Defensive Line: The Patriots have the ability to morph into anything they want, or need, to be, and the defensive line is no exception.  Who remains on the depth chart isn't so much a question as is where would they line up on each play?

At the moment, it would appear that the Universities of Texas and Arkansas are dominating the top of said depth chart, with nose tackle Malcom Brown (Texas) and defensive ends Trey Flowers and rookie Deatrich Wise (Go Hogs!) displaying excellent form, though we didn't see Brown at all last night and Wise's night ended early when he suffered a concussion taking a knee to the helmet.

The depth was atrocious otherwise, and the linebackers were forced to set the hard edge most of the night on the outside.

Malcolm Brown
Alan Branch
Trey Flowers
Vincent Valentine
Kony Ealy
Lawrence Guy
Deatrich Wise

Linebackers:  Just a few months ago, this group was considered a weak link in the defense.  Now we're trying to figure out what to do with all of the talent.

Elandon Roberts went helmet-to-helmet with someone in the middle of a scrum and had the look of a fighter on wobbly legs.  Harvey Langi filled in ably and Jonathan Freeney showed that he's not quite ready to surrender the roster spot he's held for a couple of seasons, as he an Langi were setting the edge all night long.

Unfortunately for the Patriots, the middle of their run defense was like jell-o and the Jaguars ran roughshod on them without any of their starters playing in the game - so last night certainly wasn't an indication of what we will see when the games are for real, nor did it change any minds on what the final depth chart will look like, unless injuries mount in camp.

Dont'a Hightower
Kyle Van Noy
Shea McClellin
Derek Rivers
David Harris
Elandon Roberts
Harvey Langi

Cornerbacks: Oh, what an awesome problem to have!  The Patriots sport three starting-quality corners on the 2017 roster, with second-year speedster Jonathan Jones making all kinds of waves in mincamp, taking most of the slot reps, but he also got repeatedly torched by the Jaguars, mostly on the same dig routes that he sees all the time in practice...

Butler is more than capable in the phone booth, where Cyrus Jones could also see some action, because it is becoming increasingly more obvious that Jones can not stick with receivers on the outside - in fact, Belichick used him as a safety on Thursday night, in part so that he could keep the action in front of him because as a boundary corner, he looked lost.

Gilmore and 2016 pickup Eric Rowe are taller corners and could get the call on the outside against the bigger receivers that New England is likely to see this year, though Butler will see time on the outside against the likes of Antonio Brown and Jarvis Landry.

The diversity of the cornerback corps gives Patricia many options in the Patriots' week-to-week game planning, and if either of the Joneses contribute, Gillette Stadium could easily turn into a no-fly zone...

Stephon Gilmore
Malcolm Butler
Eric Rowe
Jonathan Jones
Cyrus Jones

Safeties: There is not a better combination of safeties in the league than Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung and Duron Harmon, and all three are signed to multi-year contracts - while Nate Ebner and Brandon King more than earn their bones on special teams.  The problem is that in order for the Patriots to run their preferred Big Nickel alignment (one high safety and two in the box), they need McCourty, Chung and Harmon healthy and on the field.

Injuries haven't been a huge problem, but if one of them hits the shelf, it disrupts the entire defensive philosophy, so the search is on for players who can fill in at any of those positions.  While not drafting any blue liners, Belichick did pick up Big Nickel-type defensive backs in Richmond's David Jones and Minnesota's Damarius Travis, with Travis being the versatile box safety that could potentially spell Chung.

And Travis actually accounted well for himself on Thursday night, starting the game and contributing three stops and a pass defended before being replaced by Jordan Richards, who had a night he wishes he could forget, particularly since he appeared to dislocate his wrist in the fourth quarter, forcing Belichick to use Cyrus Jones to replace him.

This means that Richards is the odd man out no matter which undrafted player remains, with Jones making his way to the practice squad...

Devin McCourty
Patrick Chung
Duron Harmon
Nate Ebner
Brandon King
Damarius Travis

Specialists: The only question here is if Stephen Gostkowski is going to rebound from his less-than-stellar 2016, when he missed several extra points, seeming to push everything to the right, which if put in terms of physics, means that he isn't striking the ball as consistently as he should be.

Some attribute that to Belichick's preference of easing up on kickoffs to force the opposition to return kicks rather that take a touchback out to the 25 yard line, perhaps throwing off his natural leg swing on field goals and extra points - but he is excellent at pinning the other guys deep on his kickoffs, so the trade off is congruent.

But against the Jaguars, "Ghost" was shaky once again, pulling a 56 yard kick that had no chance from the second it left his foot, though his kickoffs were money.

Allen is a field position weapon that has gotten the offense out of plenty of holes in his career, and is clutch when he absolutely needs to be, while Cardona's worth is in never hearing his name, which means he is spot on in his long snaps.

Joe Cardona
Ryan Allen
Stephen Gostkowski

Big Plays, Patriots' Gaffes Help Jags to Preseason Win

All Matt Patricia could do is shield his eyes against the debacle unfolding in front of him.

Granted, it was his New England Patriots' defense's first preseason game, and hardly any of the players he had available to him had any sort of impact during last season's championship run, and most were still in college - but it goes without saying that he had to have higher expectations than what he actually got.

The bane of his existence on a warm, mid-August evening in Foxborough, Massachusetts wasn't the second and third team offensive units of the Jacksonville Jaguars, who put up most of the Jags' total yards, rather, it was his own players who gave up the chunk plays that the Patriots are usually so good at avoiding.

As a result, backup quarterback Chad Henne went 5 of 6 for 139 yards and third-year back Corey Grant carried the ball eight times for 120 yards, leading the not-as-explosive-as-the-Patriots-defense-made-them-look Jacksonville Jaguars to a 31-24 win over New England at Gillette Stadium on Thursday night...

...because if you take away the chunk plays - Henne's 97 yard bomb to rookie Keelan Cole and Grant's 79 yard touchdown run right through the heart of the Patriots' defense - their numbers were average and ordinary as Henne went 4 of 5 for a pedestrian 42 yards and Grant 7 carries for 41 yards. Even third string quarterback Brandon Allen got in on the fun, hitting rookie wide out Dede Westbrook with a 42 yard scoring strike to provide the winning margin.

Those chunk plays accounted for nearly half of Jacksonville's 447 total offense, and came at the expense of a secondary missing all of it's starters.

Both touchdown passes came with second-year corner Cyrus Jones in coverage with third-year safety Jordan Richards over the top.  Jones lost Cole in man coverage when he looked back for the ball, and didn't have the recovery speed to catch him, giving up at about the 20 yard line, then later looked as if he was releasing Westbrook to Richards in zone, but on both plays, Richards was nowhere near the play.

Even worse was safety Richards's form on Grant's touchdown rumble, buying an shoulder feign from Grant, getting turned around in the box and allowing Grant the sideline where he easily outran the entirety of the Patriots secondary.

But despite all of the issues with the defensive depth, the Patriots offense moved the ball well and matched Jacksonville score for score until a fumble by Patriots' running back D.J. Foster broke the pattern and gave the Jaguars the advantage, the only real surprise being quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo playing nearly three quarters of football before relenting to third-string passer Jacoby Brissett with less than five minutes left in the third frame.

Always the gamer, Garoppolo shined with a nearly perfect 22 for 28 performance for 238 yards and two scoring tosses while six different backs combined for 116 rushing yards on 29 carries.  Brissett went 8 of 13 for 88 yards in a little over a quarter of uneven work - not bad for an offense that, like the defense, was giving it's starters the night off in order for the coaching staff make some initial impressions of their depth players.

Two players that made immediate impressions were tight end Jacob Hollister, who flat owned the seam against a Jags' safety corps that had just as rough a night as the Patriots' blue liners did, putting up a seven catch, 116 yard stat line that was a game high for either team, while wide receiver Austin Carr hauled in five balls for 44 yards, one for a touchdown in which he elevated in the back of the end zone and came down with the tough grab.

K.J. Maye also found paydirt, taking a bubble screen from Garoppolo and showing good vision in traffic, weaving through a maze of defenders to go five yards for the score, while running back D.J. Foster found the edge on a three-yard touchdown run after previously putting the ball on the ground and ending a Patriots drive inside the red zone.

There were few bright spots on defense, though strong safety Damarius Travis had a strong game in the box, contributing three tackles and a pass defended.  The linebacking corps was the best unit on the field all evening with solid performances by veteran Jonathan Freeney, second-year load Elandon Roberts and versatile rookie Harvey Langi, all of who were flying to the ball.

The teams exchanged field goals in a measured performance for both, but after a beautiful coffin-corner punt by Ryan Allen that pinned the Jaguars inside their own five yard line, Henne went right after Jones on the first play - Cole baiting Jones to look back for the ball, then angling him off to gain separation, then taking the pass in stride and easily outdistancing Jones to the end zone.

After the next Patriots possession stalled, Ryan got off a flat punt that was returned to midfield, four plays late rookie back Leonard Fournette finding paydirt from one yard out to give the Jags a 17 - 3 lead,

Garoppolo responded on the next series, running off nine plays in less than two minutes and moving the offense 76 yards, capping off the drive with Carr's high-wire, trapeze catch in the back of the end zone to cut the Jacksonville lead to seven going into the room, then tied the score early in the third quarter on the screen to Maye.

Gordon's explosive run off left guard gave the lead right back to the Jaguars, then Allen took advantage of Foster's fumble, hooking up with Westbrook seven plays later to run the Jacksonville lead to two scores - and Foster's three yard scamper late in the game got the game close, but it couldn't make up for the turnover that ended what promised to be the tying drive earlier in the half.

Belichick is giving his charges a couple of days off to rest and recover before meeting up with the Texans for some joint practices next week leading up to the second preseason game for both next Saturday in Houston.

Reasons Abound Why Garoppolo Is Here To Stay

No matter the circumstance or the venue, the New England Patriots let their actions - or lack thereof - do their talking for them.

At the annual NFL Draft in Philadelphia this past April, many-a-quarterback-needy-team's fans watched in abject horror as their powers-that-be gave up prime draft capital to snag college quarterbacks - which is always a crap shoot - while New England stood pat with the hottest commodity in the quarterback market up for bids and no picks in the first two rounds...

...while the capital given up by the Texans, Chiefs and Bears would have likely been a decent start in satisfying the Patriots' demands for compensation for backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo.

Houston gave up two first rounders to Cleveland to move up 13 spots to grab Clemson signal caller DeShaun Watson while the Chiefs gave up two firsts and a third to Buffalo to move up 17 spots to take Patrick Mahomes.  Chicago, despite their fans' outcry, wasn't nearly as aggressive with their booty, swapping a third and a fourth rounder to move up one spot to grab Mitchell Trubisky.

Last we had heard rumors about the price tag on Jimmy Clipboard, it would have taken a first rounder and some additional picks to pry him away from Foxborough - so the fact that all three of those teams, all of whom have a good relationship with the Patriots and have generated deals with them in the recent past, had to settle for untested college kids rather than a tenured backup with top-shelf professional training tells us one thing:

The Patriots don't want to deal Garoppolo, no matter the price.

And why should they?  In Garoppolo, they have a ready-made heir to Tom Brady already under contract, and while Brady is firm in his resolve to play well into his 40's, all it will take is one significant injury and without a quarterback to fall back on, the Patriots' championship aspirations take a momentous hit - and history is replete with examples.

For instance, when Trent Green went down in the 1999 preseason, what would the Rams have done without Kurt Warner?  How about in 1971 when Roger Staubach replaced an ineffective Craig Morton in Dallas? Jim Plunkett for Dan Pastorini in 1980?  Jeff Hostettler for Phil Simms in 1990?  Trent Dilfer for Tony Banks in 2000?  All of those teams went on to win championships with their backups.

Of course, how can Patriots' fans forget a guy named Tom Brady coming off the bench in 2001 to lead the Patriots to their first title?

But if you want a more recent example of what can happen if a team doesn't plan properly for injury, all one has to do is to look at what happened to the Oakland Raiders last season, when Derek Carr went down in week 16 with a broken fibula and all they had to fall back on was Matt McGloin and Connor Cook, who combined for two touchdowns and four interceptions as Oakland lost their regular season finale...

...at the same time losing the AFC West and a chance at homefield advantage, then went to Houston as a wild card and got thumped by a Texans team that had Brock Osweiller at quarterback.  If the Raiders had actually employed a decent backup - McGloin had been a career clipboard holder and Cook was a rookie - they might have had the advantage over every other AFC team, including New England.

As has been said numerous times, Jimmy Garoppolo may be the best backup in the NFL, and it is obvious that his value to the forward thinking Patriots as an insurance policy against an aging Brady is worth more than a couple of draft picks or future considerations.

The Patriots have no holes in their lineup to speak of, and their depth is better than just about anyone else's in the league, barring perhaps at defensive end and at offensive guard, and now that the offseason is over, the options that the Patriots have in replacing incumbent talent with a college kid are narrow indeed, no matter the position.

Will how he performs in camp make any difference? Not necessarily, as Garoppolo has proven time and again that he is a "Gamer", meaning that he performs much better in game situations than he does in practices, and even with five interceptions in two days of camp, Garoppolo tells the truth

His explanation for the phenomenon?  He takes more chances in practice.

"You always try to do the right thing in practice" Garoppolo stated after Friday's practice in which he was picked off three times. "But practice is also that time, especially in training camp, where you give a guy an opportunity that maybe you wouldn't in the regular season."

"It's a time to gain trust in your teammates and give guys an opportunity." he continued, "A jump ball, for example, or a back shoulder, both of those are difficult catches.  You just try to learn your teammates the best you can right now."

Makes sense, in a "Patriots' Way" kind of way - and he's thrown plenty of picks in camp the past three years, but when he got the opportunity to get on the field when it counted, he was nearly flawless, going 43 of 63 for 502 yards and four touchdowns without ever throwing an interception, racking up a 2-0 record while filling in for Brady to start the 2016 season.

He is a polished passer with his eyes glued to his feet, meaning that his arm is cocked and ready to fire because his feet are always underneath him, balancing the throwing motion and follow through, resulting in a compact delivery with no wasted motion and a lightning-quick, snap release not seen in the league since Dan Marino retired.

All of that said and true, none of it means that Garoppolo is the second coming of Marino - or Brady, for that matter - it just illustrates the tools that he has to work with, tools that belong in a rhythm offense that grinds out first downs and eats clock.

So with Garoppolo entering his contract year as a somewhat proven commodity with a limited body of work to evaluate from, added to the fact that Brady is soon to be on the wrong side of 40, the Patriots will be forced to make a decision between now and the start of the 2018 league year next March as to what they are going to do with the Northern Illinois product...

...but one thing is for certain, and that is that the fate of the franchise lies in what they decide to do with Garoppolo going forward - and even if they have to absorb an exorbitant cap hit for a year or two to keep him around, in the long run it will be well worth it.

Bolder Predictions: A Baker's Dozen Of Patriots' Prognostications

Making bold predictions is not my thing.

Though when asked by a co-worker about the Patriots' chances at making the playoffs in 2001, I said that they would win 11 games and win the Super Bowl.  Of course, I was just trying to get the guy away from me, but I tend to do my best work when faced with a little adversity.

I haven't been right on too many things since - going 0-15 in predicting head ball coach Bill Belichick's top draft choice each season until I pulled off the Derek Rivers prediction a couple of months back - so anything I predict shouldn't be taken too seriously - or should it?

Gronkowski and MVP candidate?

Despite my flaws in predicting draft picks, my success rate increases exponentially when it comes to what the roster will look like once camp breaks, and that's what this is all about.

Some of the following predictions are bold, some are weak, some are lame and some are moronic, but I believe my logic is sound, and as Mr. Spock of Star Trek fame was fond of saying, logic is but the beginning of wisdom.  Does that mean these conclusions make me wise?  Hardly, but let's wait until the season concludes before we tackle that question...

1. Rob Ninkovich and Jordan Richards will be released

It's a numbers game for Ninkovich, and just a miscue on Richards.  Anyone who was actually paying attention when the Falcons scored 21 points on the Patriots' defense in Super Bowl 51 would have had to notice that Ninkovich was in coverage on the scoring player in two of those instances, and was badly overmatched. Coincidence that the Falcons were so much faster on offense than the Patriots were on defense?  Perhaps, but the greybeard warrior was badly beaten on both scores and has worn down to where he could now be a liability...

...while Richards was simply a bad reach for a team that was seeking an eventual successor to Patrick Chung at strong safety - which brings us to our next prediction:

2. Belichick will keep at least one undrafted safety

New England values safeties more than most teams, as they wouldn't be able to run their three-safety, Big Nickel alignment without at least three starting quality blue liners.  Despite the amendment to Chung's contract in which he can earn an additional $900k in incentives, the team is almost in desperation mode to find his eventual replacement, and there is at least one undrafted player who would be a perfect developmental fit.

Former Minnesota Gopher Damarius Travis is a pure box safety with the size (6' 2", 215) to contribute in run defense and the cover skills to handle tight ends underneath while Richmond's David Jones is a virtual Duron Harmon clone with the sideline-to-sideline lateral movement and impressive ball skills to develop into a quality ball hawk.  Look for Travis to make the roster with Jones stashed away on the practice squad.

3. Patriots' defense will morph into a 3-4 base front

Of course, the nickel is the Patriots' primary alignment as they are in either a standard or Big Nickel look on three-quarters of their defensive snaps, but if one were to label them in a conventional base, the Fairbanks-Bullough 3-4 alignment is what they have the personnel to run. Belichick was busy this offseason collecting defensive linemen whose skill set translates to five-technique defensive ends, and combined with the sheer number of versatile linebackers on the roster, it all translates to three-man fronts.

New England drafted Arkansas defensive end Deatrich Wise and brought in five-tech ends Lawrence Guy from Baltimore and Kony Ealy from Carolina to team with incumbents Alan Branch, Woodrow Hamilton and rising star Trey Flowers - and have a solid base at nose tackle with a rotation of Malcom Brown and Vincent Valentine.  The linebackers will be supplemented in their rotation with box safeties and they drafted Youngstown State's Derek Rivers to be worked into a strong-side linebacker spot formerly held by Jamie Collins.

4. Patriots offensive line will become a top five unit

If there is a concern on the roster, it is the lack of depth on the interior of the Patriots' offensive line - but given health, the starters are young fire-pissers who should solidify the line for a good length of time, as Shaq Mason is a dominating run blocker who pairs with All Pro right tackle Marcus Cannon to present a formidable strong side presence, David Andrews has evolved into one of the better centers in the league and Joe Thuney should make the requisite second-year jump after an up-and-down year at left guard.

The only real question mark is at left tackle, where Nate Solder has had some injury concerns in the past, and will probably preclude him from signing a long-term contract with the team going forward - which is why Belichick drafted Troy's Antonio Garcia and UCLA's Conor McDermott, and which brings us to...

5. Garcia will assume swing tackle role, Fleming and Waddle will be cut

Garcia is the long-term solution at left tackle but will see most of his action this season as a swing tackle, which means that Cam Fleming and LaAdrian Waddle will be out of a job come September, particularly if McDermott turns out to be more than what his draft profile suggests.

Both were quality blind side protectors in college and have basketball backgrounds - but Garcia is the nasty, play-through-the-whistle type with a fluid kick slide that line coaches dream about, and he should be ready to take over for Solder in 2018 while contributing as a sixth offensive lineman this season.  McDermott is a force as a pulling wham blocker in the running game but doesn't (yet) have the transitional skill nor muscular base to hold up in the trenches as a pro, but has a vicious cut block that will serve him well as a swing tackle both this season and next.

6. Belichick will trade, release or otherwise move Jacoby Brissett

Is one little roster spot that important to the Patriots?  Given the volume of talent on both sides of the ball, one roster spot could mean the difference between being able to develop a player on the roster, or losing him to another team.

Last season was the first time in five years that New England had carried three quarterbacks on the roster, and were fine in doing so as they were able to keep most of their developmental prospects, but this season, with so much talent going at least two-deep on the depth chart at just about every position - including quarterback - the Patriots have put themselves in a position where they are going to have to decide whether it is more important to carry three quarterbacks, or to use the roster spot on a prospect elsewhere.

It may come down to Brissett making the 53-man roster and being dealt sometime before the trade deadline.

7. Running backs will produce over 3000 total yards

The last time the New England Patriots had four running backs capable of producing eye-popping numbers individually was in 1978, the season that the Patriots set a rushing record of 3,165 yards that stands to this day - with Sam Cunningham leading that record-setting backfield that included Andy Johnson, Horace Ivory and Don Calhoun, and had substantial help from quarterback Steve Grogan.

This is not to say that the players that populate the Patriots' backfield nearly four decades later are going to challenge that '78 squad for a record, but they are more than capable of contributing more than 3,000 yards from scrimmage to what may well be a combined record-setting New England offense.

Mike Gillislee and Rex Burkhead should be the leaders in the ground game while James White and Dion Lewis will be the primary passing backs - but all of them are capable of lending a hand in both facets of the offensive production.  Judging just from past production, the Patriots should be able to top 2,000 yards on the ground and also clear 1,000 yards through the air, but that all depends on balanced play calling...

8. Offense will be balanced between run and pass, perhaps even be run-heavy

Last season, the Patriots' offense enjoyed balance in their play calling, and the result was a career season for running back LeGarrette Blount and passing back James White, not to mention an offense that could not be stopped when the game was on the line.

It is especially important to feature balance in the offense as quarterback Tom Brady enters his golden years and probably shouldn't take the kind of pounding that being pass-heavy would subject him to. Besides, the Patriots' offensive philosophy - known universally as the Erhardt-Perkins scheme - requires that they "pass to score, then run to win", which in lay terms means that they will use the passing game to gain a lead and then run the ball to kill the clock.

But it's more than that.  The Patriots proved during the Super Bowl that the best way to wear down a defense is to keep them on the field for a protracted amount of time, moving the chains at a snail's pace, which means the short passing game and power running game - and New England foes are bound to see plenty of both.

9. Cooks will work primarily out of the slot

New receiver Brandin Cooks has an extra gear that most pass catchers do not possess.  Sure, he has straight-line speed to leave a vapor trail, but the diminutive Cooks says that his best destiny is coming out of the slot where he can engage that second gear to leave nickel backs eating dust.

"This is an offense that guys do a bunch of different things and I'm looking forward to doing some things that I didn't necessarily have to do in New Orleans" Cooks said in his initial press conference with the Boston media, then qualified his statement by adding, "as far as playing from the slot, I definitely feel that I can do that at a high level."

Ok, so Cooks playing out of the slot isn't necessarily a bold prediction, but it is a departure from what he encountered in New Orleans, where he was the top outside threat in their high flying circus, though coming out of Oregon State he was projected to be an elite slot guy due to his fearlessness in the tall trees and his ability to separate after the catch - and with New England well stocked with outside-the-numbers, downfield pass catchers in Malcolm Mitchell and Chris Hogan, expect to see Cooks blazing trails from the slot.

10. Gronkowski will be named NFL MVP

Yes, I know that there's some scrub named Brady who will be vying for the same award, but with Gronkowski entering 2017 fully healthy and ready for camp, we are about to witness something magical from the four-time All Pro tight end.

Gronk has played in all 16 games in a season just twice in seven seasons, and that was in his rookie and sophomore seasons, the latter in which he obliterated the league's single-season records for receiving yards (1,327) and touchdowns (18) and was named to his first All Pro team.  His 14.7 yards per reception has increased incrementally since then, cresting at an absurd 21.6 last season before going down with back issues.

He was able to do those things because he is as gifted and as natural a tight end as the game has ever seen, and also had the benefit of a certain pair of wide receivers by the names Moss and Welker to take a lot of heat off of him - but at that point in his career, he was primarily a crosser in the second level, but now has evolved into an extraordinary seam threat...

...and with names such as Edelman, Hogan, Mitchell and Cooks - not to mention a dynamic running game - to occupy defenders, teams may have to resort to (gulp!) leaving Gronkowski to single coverage at times.  And if you base his production anywhere close to what he averaged last season before his injury, we could be looking at a 2,000 yard season for Gronkowski.

Far-fetched?  Maybe, but wouldn't it be cool?

11. Garoppolo will receive major extension

Jimmy Garoppolo and Malcolm Butler are both scheduled for unrestricted free agency next March, and are also expected to be two of the top prizes to be had in said free agency.  The Patriots would do well to ensure neither player makes it that far.

Including the amount of cap space the team will be able to roll over into 2018 combined with the expected annual increase in the cap ceiling and space created by expiring contracts, the Patriots will enter the new league year with upwards of $60 million to play around with - plenty of capital to invest in the future of the quarterback position, as securing Jimmy Clipboard's status must be top priority.

Given that Brady wants to play another couple of seasons, the extension would have to be heavy on immediate money in the way of a franchise record-setting signing bonus, with reasonable annual salaries to offset the bonus and spread across multiple seasons - with, of course, some incentive language that provides for incremental increases in salary for him in the event he ends up with major playing time due to a Brady injury.

Butler may be a tougher signing in that he stands to absolutely break the bank next offseason and Belichick may find it too much to have a quarter of his salary cap tied up in cornerbacks, and it is unclear whether the snafu with New Orleans this offseason would affect Butler's decision-making skills if it came to being offered a deal featuring a hometown discount.  Still, there is plenty of cap space to do both deals plus retain core role players.

12. Butler becomes chess piece in secondary

The primary reason that Belichick splurged on former Buffalo Bills cornerback Stephon Gilmore in free agency is that he needed greater size than what he currently had, given the trend of receivers getting bigger, plus he had no clue whether he would still have Butler on the roster come September.

So now the Patriots have what would have to be considered a very good problem to have - what with Gilmore and emerging number-two corner Eric Rowe standing 6' 1", they now have two long press corners that should be able to match up with a foe's larger receivers, Butler can essentially become a chess piece to be positioned to take advantage of any mismatches.

In Belichick's game plan defense, many of his players are movable, and Butler has demonstrated his mettle and toughness time and again against players big and small, and is versatile enough to play press, off man and zone, no matter if he is outside or in the slot - a place that he could end up seeing a lot of, and a scenario that presents Butler with an opportunity to prove to 31 other general managers that he is indeed one of the league's elite.

That would backfire on Belichick, because if Butler has another solid year, someone is going to make him a very rich man.

13. Rivers assumes and excels in the "Collins" role

Derek Rivers played defensive end at Youngstown State and became one of the best pass rushers in Division II - but at 6' 4" and only 250 pounds, Rivers is not the prototypical size for an NFL defensive end.  And while we may see him with his hand in the dirt on occasion, it is more likely that Belichick envisions a role for him not unlike what he envisioned for Jamie Collins coming out of college.

Collins' draft projection is similar in many ways to Rivers' and both were considered as 3-4 rush linebackers.  Like Collins, Rivers will likely be brought along slowly, then unleashed towards the end of the season.  He excels at stringing out plays to the edge and has a non-stop motor - and maybe it's not fair to him to hoist that kind of reputation to reach for, but he's similar athlete.

Assessing The Patriots' Roster With Draft Looming

The New England Patriots have 65 players on their preseason roster, 25 short of the 90 man limit heading into offseason workouts and, ultimately, training camp - and what you see thus far is pretty much what Patriots' fans are liable to get when camp breaks in early September.

Hightower and Roberts in Super Bowl

After all, the Patriots have already had their "draft", per se, as they have traded their top draft capital to New Orleans and Carolina for wide receiver Brandin Cooks and defensive end Kony Ealy, respectively - not to mention that in free agency they picked up another defensive end in Lawrence Guy, cornerback Stephon Gilmore and running back Rex Burkhead, leaving them with an early third-round selection as their first pick of the 2017 draft.

With so many camp spots left to fill, and with so few draft picks in which to fill them, there are many opportunities for undrafted rookies and marginal veteran talents to earn a surprise spot on the roster or on the practice squad.

Quarterbacks (3)

Tom Brady
Jimmy Garoppolo
Jacoby Brissett

Jimmy Clipboard isn't going anywhere, hammering home the notion that he is viewed to be the future of the franchise.  Many writers and fans find it curious that the team isn't willing to part with Garoppolo to gain value for him in the final year of his rookie contract, but all these folks have to do is look around the league to see teams that have everything else in place, but aren't as successful as they should be because they don't have a franchise quarterback...

Chances of drafting a quarterback: Zero

Candidates for draft if Garoppolo dealt: Central Michigan's Cooper Rush

Possible veteran signings if Garoppolo dealt: Matt McGloin (Oakland), 

Running Backs (7)

James White

Dion Lewis
Rex Burkhead
*Mike Gillislee
Brandon Bolden
D.J. Foster
James Develin
Glenn Gronkowski

With the only question mark being whether or not the Bills will match New England's offer sheet to Gillislee, this is a solid group that will be pared down to five players at final cutdowns - bad news for Gronkowski and possibly Foster...and anyone who had designs of being drafted by the team.

Chances of drafting a running back: If Gillislee stays, minimal.  If Gillislee remains with Buffalo, very good.

Candidates being Wyoming's Brian Hill, Pitt's James Connor, Wisconsin's Dare Ogunbowale, Boise State's Jeremy McNichols

Veterans that could be signed include LeGarrette Blount (NE), Adrian Peterson (Minn), Justin Forsett (Balt)

Wide Recievers (8)

Julian Edelman
Danny Amendola
Chris Hogan
Malcolm Mitchell
Brandin Cooks
Devin Lucien
Matthew Slater
De'Andrew White

How many receivers does a team actually need?  A better question for Patriots' fans may be, how many very good receivers does a team actually need?

The Patriots generally keep four receivers on the 53 man roster - not counting Slater who is a receiver by label only - but this season it looks like it's going to be six, because who do you cut?  Certainly not Cooks, whom Belichick gave up a first round draft pick for, not Edelman nor Hogan.  Amendola is as clutch as clutch can be and took a serious pay cut to stay with the team and Malcolm Mitchell qualifies as an emerging threat bordering on stardom...

Chances of drafting a receiver: Zero

Tight Ends (4)

Rob Gronkowski
Dwayne Allen
Rob Housler
Matt Lengel

Gronkowski is perhaps the greatest mismatch in the league today when he's healthy, while Allen has never lived up to his full potential as a hybrid, move tight end, and may not get the touches to do much more in Foxborough, as the pass catching talent on the roster is among the league's best, and certainly the most versatile...

...which is even worse news for Housler, who is a receiver only and never saw a man he could block.  Lengel has a chance to stick on the roster due to his blocking prowess, but given all of the aforementioned talent on the roster, his spot is nowhere close to being guaranteed.

Chances of drafting a tight end: 50/50, if the Patriots feel they need to develop a long-term player.

Candidates being Virginia Tech's Bucky Hodges, Ashland's Adam Shaheen, Washington's Darrell Daniels.


Offensive Tackles (5)

Nate Solder
LaAdrian Waddle
Marcus Cannon
Cam Fleming
Michael Williams

Solder had a terrible first half of last season, but came on at the end, while Cannon had such a great season that he was named a second-team All Pro.  Solder's cap hit is enormous this season, and if his 2017 is anything like the second half of last season, he will be demanding huge dollars.  Cannon turned in an excellent performance and is under contract for the foreseeable future.

Fleming is invaluable as a swing tackle, while Waddle is apparently fragile, but a decent depth option if healthy.  Williams is actually a massive tight end converted to tackle - but none would be able to fill Solder's shoes in the event of emergency or attrition.

Chances of drafting an offensive tackle: Almost certain

Candidates being Troy's Antonio Garcia, Florida State's Roderick Johnson, Texas A&M's Avery Gennesey, Bucknell's Julie'n Davenport, Alabama State's Jylan Ware.

Available veteran tackles: Ryan Clady (Den), Sebastian Vollmer (NE)

Offensive Guards (5)

Joe Thuney
Shaq Mason
Chase Farris
Chris Barker
Jamil Douglass

Thuney was roughed up in pass protection in his rookie year, but Mason made great strides and was the most improved player on the team.  Behind those two are huge question marks and untested depth with the release of Tre' Jackson last week due to injury concerns.  This could be Barker's chance to finally ascend from the Practice squad, but the Patriots likely won't take any chances and are likely to pick up another guard through the draft or free agency.

Chances of drafting a guard: Certain

Candidates being Pitt's Dorian Johnson, LSU's Ethan Pocic, Western Michigan's Taylor Moton, Utah's Isaac Asiata, Texas A&M's Jermaine Eluemunor, TCU's Aviante Collins.

Available veteran guards: Mike Harris (Minn), Jahari Evans (NO)

Centers (2)

David Andrews
Ted Karras

Both players are mean scrappers.  No need to upset that apple cart.  In a pinch, both Mason and Thuney have experience at center, so the position should be set.

Chances of drafting a center: Zero

Defensive Tackles (5)

Alan Branch
Malcolm Brown
Vincent Valentine
Woodrow Hamilton
Darius Kilgo

Branch, Brown and Valentine represent one of the best interior rotations in the NFL, and Hamilton is a project with tremendous upside.  When New England goes into their three-man line in the Big Nickel variation ends Trey Flowers and Lawrence Guy reduce down to become effective five-technique rushers.

Chances of drafting a defensive tackle: Slim

Available veteran tackles: Jared Odrick (Jac), Sen"Derrick Marks (Jac)

Defensive Ends (5)

Trey Flowers
Rob Ninkovich
Geneo Grissom
Kony Ealy
Lawrence Guy

Flowers is on the verge of superstardom, which means the Patriots need to extend him quickly to avoid the inevitable contract squabbles.  Ninkovich is a warrior with lots of miles on him, but still a capable edge setter while Ealy is young, but mostly a situational edge rusher.  Guy is an unknown and underrated five and seven technique end who graded out as PFF's number ten rated edge setter last season.

Depth is certainly a concern, and the best case scenario is for the Patriots to bring in an all-purpose end to compete for three-down duties.

Chances of drafting a defensive end: Certain

Candidates being Wisconsin's T.J. Watt, Florida State's DeMarcus Walker, Ohio's Tarell Basham, Youngstown State's Derek Rivers, Villnova's Tanoh Kpassagnon.

Available veteran edge defenders: none of consequence


Linebackers (6)

Dont'a Hightower
Kyle Van Noy
Shea McClellin
Elandon Roberts
Trevor Bates
Jonathan Freeney

The re-signing of Hightower augments the presence of Van Noy and McClellin to form an intriguing linebacking corps with plenty of interior depth with Roberts and Freeny.  If there is a need, it is for a cover backer, which always seems to be a need in New England, who typically drops a safety down onto the second level to handle those duties on passing downs.

Chances of drafting a linebacker: 50/50

Candidates being Louisville's Josh Harvey-Clemons, Houston's Tyus Bowser.

Available veteran linebackers: Perry Riley (Oak), Gerald Hodges (SF)


Cornerbacks (6)

Stephon Gilmore
Malcolm Butler
Eric Rowe
Cyrus Jones
Jonathan Jones
Justin Coleman

Gilmore, Butler and Rowe represent the best set of corners in the league - if they remain together.  At this point, it doesn't make any sense to break them up, giving Belichick a nice problem in finding enough playing time for all three, plus getting some dime work in for Cyrus Jones and Justin Coleman.

Butler may or may not still be on the trading block after signing his very affordable tender, and if he does indeed leave, the unproven depth behind Gilmore and Rowe may be enough to make the Patriots look at corners in the draft.

Chances of drafting a cornerback: 50/50, depending on Butler's situation

Candidates being Michigan's Jourdan Lewis, Clemson's Cordrea Tankersley, West Virginia's Rasul Douglas, Houston's Howard Wilson, Central Florida's Shaquill Griffin, Temple's Nate Hairston, Michigan's Channing Stribling and Utah's Brian Allen

Available veteran cornerbacks: Darrelle Revis (NYJ), Alterraun Verner (TB)


Safeties (6)

Devin McCourty
Patrick Chung
Duron Harmon
Nate Ebner
Jordan Richards
Brandon King

McCourty, Chung and Harmon represent the best set of safeties in the league, and allow Belichick to run his Big Nickel without fear.  Ebner and King are special teams standouts, leaving only the thus-far disappointing Jordan Richards as depth, and with Chung reaching 30 years old during camp, the need for a strong safety is great.

Some of the corners already mentioned fir the Patriots need for a physical box safety with coverage ability - Tankersley, Griffin and Allen come to mind, but there are other candidates coming out of college as safeties.

Chances of drafting a safety: Good

Candidates include Louisville's Josh Harvey-Clemons, UConn's Obi Melifonwu, Florida's Quincey Wilson, Utah's Marcus Williams, Air Force's Weston Steelhammer

Available veteran safeties: Duke Ihenacho (Wash), Shamarko Thomas (Pitt)


Kickers (3)

Joe Cardona
Ryan Allen
Stephen Gostkowski

Cardona and Allen continue their steady play, and Gostkowski is decently reliable on field goals, but extra points seem to give him trouble - and being that he's missed extra points in championship games two seasons in a row has to be disconcerting to Belichick.  That said, it is still a longshot for the team to bring in any competition, though it is certainly possible.

Chances of drafting a kicker: Remote