Is Rob Gronkowski's time in New England coming to an end?
It's a rhetorical question, of course, because everyone has their own opinion on the matter - but what is there to make of his uber-childish behavior of late, almost as if he is daring the Patriots to trade him? And considering that the truth of the matter is that at this point, neither the pros nor the cons outweigh each other when it comes shipping him off to become someone else's issue?
The pros? Gronkowski will be twenty-nine years old next month and already has eight years of wear and tear on his scar-laced body - not to mention that the Patriots are probably tiring of his entitled, look-at-me attention grab. The cons? He is easily the best and most complete tight end in the league and is a game-changer.
Case in point: In games this past season when the Patriots were slow out of the gate and recorded sluggish first halfs, the adjustment at halftime always seemed to be finding ways to get the ball to Gronkowski, who would literally carry the offense on his back for entire drives.
In other words, when all seems lost because nothing else is working, the Patriots flip the Gronk switch.
He knows how valuable he is, and we all know what a loony, fun-loving guy he is - and Patriots' fans have appreciated the marriage of the two for as long as he's been in Foxborough. We gasp in marvel when he drags defenders down the field, we hold our breath every time he hits the turf for fear he won't get back up. We delight in his touchdown celebrations and subsequent "Earthquake" spikes that bound into the air higher than a Ryan Allen punt...
...there really hasn't been any occasion for Patriots' fans to be anything other than adoring of the happy-go-lucky man-child, until his demeanor turned to petulance, and now fans are turning on him in droves.
Admittedly, fans should be a little more patient with his immoderate act this offseason, but we have never seen this side of Gronkowski, the side that seems to scream entitlement during a period in the nation's history when it seems everyone feels entitled to something.
Politics aside - or perhaps on center stage, depending on your level of involvement and/or hysteria - it seems time to place a value on Gronkowski, as it pertains to his past performance and future expectations as gauged against the potential draft capital he could bring to the team if dealt away.
To that end, many are commenting on social media that the Patriots should expect a high first-round draft pick if they put Gronkowski up for bid, but given that he's tormented the Patriots with ambiguity and talk of retirement - not to mention his lengthy list of medical issues - the expectations of the fan base should be tempered a bit...
...while also remembering that Belichick's wheelhouse where he finds he best values is on the second day of the draft, so asking for multiple second day draft picks is sure to empower Belichick and make more willing whomever bids on Gronkowski to actually pull the trigger.
Madness, all of it - but not so far outside the realm of possibility that it can't be discussed with some decorum among polite people
That said, and assuming Belcihick has tired of Gronk's spoiled sophomoric antics, there are numerous teams that would be willing to trim their day two draft capital in order to obtain such game-changing talent. The Cleveland Browns own two first round picks and three second rounders, so one could envision them swapping one of the second rounders (Probably number sixty-four overall) and a fourth - and there's also the Indianapolis Colts who could easily let go of one of the their seconds and their third rounder for such a talent...
...or the Dallas Cowboys could be in the market with Jason Whitten nearing the end - but for the purposes of this tome we shall envision Bill Belichick making a deal with the San Francisco 49ers to send Gronkowski to be reunited with quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, for whom the 'Niners sent a metaphoric bag of peanuts to New England at last season's trade deadline, so they may be willing to let go of a little more in compensation.
However, it is unlikely that the 49ers would part with their first round draft pick, number nine overall, so in our scenario, the Patriots could receive the 'Niners 2nd round pick (59th overall) and both of their third round picks (70th and 74th overall), which would give New England an unprecedented number of picks in the top 100, as detailed below:
1st round, 23rd overall (From Los Angeles Rams in Cooks trade)
1st round, 31st overall
2nd round, 43rd overall (From San Francisco in Garoppolo trade)
2nd round, 59th overall (Proposed Gronk trade)
2nd round, 63rd overall
3rd round, 70th overall (Proposed Gronk trade)
3rd round, 74th overall (Proposed Gronk trade)
3rd round, 95th overall
Of course, all of that assuming that Belichick is looking to deal Gronkowski at all - but the Dark Master cannot be happy with the All Pro's constant jabs. But instead of dealing him, he could make Gronkowski honor his contract or risk having the league become involved in a nasty settlement that would involve signing bonuses and guaranteed money.
Another scenario could see Belichick renegotiating his contract to give Gronkowski a significant raise for 2018, gambling on his health and attitude and putting off moving him until the start of the 2019 league year., which makes sense financially, as dealing him next offseason would net the Patriots $8 million in cap relief where dealing him this offseason would gain them just $2.5 million, yet with Gronkowski turning thirty years old before camp opens, it may affect his trade value on the market.
But waiting a year is a gamble with his injury history and recent attitude, and New England could end up with nothing.
That brings up the possibility of a trade deadline deal, but there are so many variables that have to be factored in with such a scenario - such as teams being tight end-needy, be it due to injury or simply needing that one player to put them over the top down the stretch, and if the Patriots are right in the middle of another title run themselves - that it would be foolish to even consider them at present.
In the end, New England is better off with a happy and motivated Gronkowski on their roster, but it also must be remembered that the Patriots won seven division titles, went to five AFC Championship games and four Super Bowls - winning three - in the first decade of Belichick's reign before Gronkowski came on scene - doing so with stout defenses and brutish running games...
...and won a Super Bowl in 2016 with him sidelined for the season. though they have been to the AFC Championship game every season he has been in Foxborough except his rookie year, and have advanced to the Super Bowl a total of four times in his eight seasons on the roster.
The point being that as long as Belichick is haunting the sidelines, the Patriots will find ways to win football games no matter the personnel, and are absolutely stacked with pass catchers, have the greatest quarterback of all time throwing to them, and are backed up by an intriguing committee of running backs, so it's not like there is nothing for Belichick to work with if Gronkowski ends up leaving.
Because, this is Bill Belichick's team, his design, his scheme, his way - and if that has Gronkowski down in the dumps, Belichick is not without options...
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Showing posts with label Rob Gronkowski. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rob Gronkowski. Show all posts
Tuesday, April 24, 2018
Tuesday, April 3, 2018
Tight End Draft Class Not Deep, So Patriots Should Look For Value In Later Rounds
In 2010, the New England Patriots ushered in what was supposed to be the Next Big Thing in professional football.
In drafting Arizona's Rob Gronkowski in the second round and Florida's Aaron Hernandez in the fourth, the Patriots had all the makings of a tight end-centric offense that was sure to run roughshod over the National Football League foe a decade, perhaps even longer.
But after two-and-a-half seasons bordering on greatness and contract extensions for both that paid Gronkowski $9 million per season and Hernandez $7.5, the two-tight end attack that was on the verge of becoming a league paradigm melted into broken bones and dark malfeasance.
Obviously vestigial since that point, the Patriots have nevertheless been active in trying to regain some semblance of the two tight end attack, but with very limited results. Michael Hoomanawanui and Matthew Mulligan were mostly end-of-the-line, blocking types, Tim Wright was a wide receiver playing tight end and Scott Chandler was a major disappointment in the role.
The only tight end opposite a somewhat fragile Gronkowski to flourish in that role was Martellus Bennett in 2016, though he ended up being the tight end once a herniated disc ended Gronkowski's season midway through - playing through various injuries himself as New England simply had no other options at the position...
...which is perhaps some of the reason why the Patriots claimed Bennett off of waivers from Green Bay towards the end of last season, though he ended up on the IR after a couple of games.
Without a doubt, the Patriots are star-crossed when it comes to the tight end position, and 2018 is shaping up as potentially the worst season yet, as Gronkowski is toying with the team and the fans as he takes out his frustrations with a rigid Bill Belichick on his teammates and the fans by feigning retirement.
Gronkowski is under contract for two more seasons, but it goes to figure that even if he chooses not to retire at the age of 28, these are final two seasons that Gronkowski will call Foxborough home - so it makes sense for the Patriots to be looking to free agency for immediate depth at the position and to the draft for an eventual replacement.
But is the answer to the depth part of the equation already on the 90-man roster?
Stony Brook University alum Will Tye spent most of last season on the Patriots' practice squad after being released by the New York Jets, who picked him up last offseason after he was part of the New York Giants' final cutdowns. Similar in size to Hernandez, Tye has better straight-line speed and lateral movement - but on the down side, his run blocking is just as atrocious as the former Patriot.
Tye caught 90 balls for 859 yards and four touchdowns in two full seasons with the Giants, suggesting that despite his speed, Tye was used mainly as a safety valve in New York - and if he were to make the roster in New England, chances are he would be used the same way in Foxborough.
Dwayne Allen, on the other hand, is a tremendous blocker who can't get out of his own way in the pass pattern, while young Jacob Hollister offered little else besides being a moving target for highlight film collisions over the middle - add all of this together and the Patriots should be in the market for both depth and skilled youth.
In the past couple of days they have brought in Troy Niklas, late of the Arizona Cardinals, but he's been in the trainers' room more in two seasons than Gronkowski has in eight, and he left Foxborough without an offer - and there's really nothing left in free agency that either isn't on the wrong side of thirty or has some severe physical limitations.
That said, has tight end become a sudden area of high need for the Patriots? Probably so, but one won't find an elite combination tight end in the 2018 draft, so late on day two and early on day three of the draft is where the Patriots would likely be looking for a surprise gem at the position.
That excludes the likes of Goedert, Gesicki and Andrews who are all one dimensional yet are at the top of the draft class, which speaks to how limited the class is - but there are a few potential finds in the middle rounds - the best of them being Central Michigan's Tyler Conklin.
Conklin had a down year in 2017, statistically, due to a fracture in his foot in camp, but at 6' 3" tall and 245 pounds and with vice-like hands, he should be in the mix as a "move" tight end despite running poorly at the combine. He caught 35 balls for 504 yards in eight games and scored five times. Central Michigan had all kinds of quarterbacking problems in the past couple of seasons, but a look at his 2016 tape shows his potential.
A decent trap blocker on the edge in the running game makes him more draftable than some of the higher rated prospects, but he needs to learn how to use his body to shield defenders from the ball as a receiver, as he will allow linebackers and safeties to get inside to get a hand on the ball - which is all coaching - but once he gets his hands on a ball, chances are very good that he will haul it in.
Because of his broken foot last season, teams will be pressed to evaluate his durability, but his stock should remain stationary as a solid late-third, early-fourth round pick - just slightly better than North Carolina State's Jaylen Samuels, who isn't really even a tight end, but is listed as such because evaluators can't seem to put a label on the kid.
It isn't often that one sees a tight end listed at 5' 11" and 225 pounds, so scouts are telling Samuels that he will most likely be slotted as a running back in the pros, but his skill set screams "Utility player", for which the Patriots have a rich history of finding in the selection process.
He lined up all over the offense for the Wolfpack, seeing time at "move" tight end, H-back (which is what he really is), running back, slot receiver and lined up wide - and ended his career as NC State's all-time receptions leader, surpassing Jerricho Cotchery school record by catching 202 passes and averaging nearly 10 yards per and scoring 19 times...
...while as a runner, he averaged just over six yards per carry, gaining 1104 yards on just 180 carries, and scoring 28 rushing touchdowns while he was at it, and last season also assumed the goal line duties, making his yards per carry that much more impressive - and he also returned kicks for the 'Pack, averaging 20 yards per return.
Samuels is not as elusive as Dion Lewis is - very few runners actually are - but he compares favorably to Lewis in speed and toughness between the tackles, and has enough quickness to gain the edge as a runner and to carry the rock in a jailbreak screen scenario.
As mentioned, the 2018 draft class is not a very good one for tight ends, but it is excellent and deep in other areas where the Patriots are likely to be players - so it would be reasonable to expect that they would wait for value in the tight end class at the end of the second day and into the third day...
In drafting Arizona's Rob Gronkowski in the second round and Florida's Aaron Hernandez in the fourth, the Patriots had all the makings of a tight end-centric offense that was sure to run roughshod over the National Football League foe a decade, perhaps even longer.
But after two-and-a-half seasons bordering on greatness and contract extensions for both that paid Gronkowski $9 million per season and Hernandez $7.5, the two-tight end attack that was on the verge of becoming a league paradigm melted into broken bones and dark malfeasance.
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| Central Michigan's Tyler Conklin |
Obviously vestigial since that point, the Patriots have nevertheless been active in trying to regain some semblance of the two tight end attack, but with very limited results. Michael Hoomanawanui and Matthew Mulligan were mostly end-of-the-line, blocking types, Tim Wright was a wide receiver playing tight end and Scott Chandler was a major disappointment in the role.
The only tight end opposite a somewhat fragile Gronkowski to flourish in that role was Martellus Bennett in 2016, though he ended up being the tight end once a herniated disc ended Gronkowski's season midway through - playing through various injuries himself as New England simply had no other options at the position...
...which is perhaps some of the reason why the Patriots claimed Bennett off of waivers from Green Bay towards the end of last season, though he ended up on the IR after a couple of games.
Without a doubt, the Patriots are star-crossed when it comes to the tight end position, and 2018 is shaping up as potentially the worst season yet, as Gronkowski is toying with the team and the fans as he takes out his frustrations with a rigid Bill Belichick on his teammates and the fans by feigning retirement.
Gronkowski is under contract for two more seasons, but it goes to figure that even if he chooses not to retire at the age of 28, these are final two seasons that Gronkowski will call Foxborough home - so it makes sense for the Patriots to be looking to free agency for immediate depth at the position and to the draft for an eventual replacement.
But is the answer to the depth part of the equation already on the 90-man roster?
Stony Brook University alum Will Tye spent most of last season on the Patriots' practice squad after being released by the New York Jets, who picked him up last offseason after he was part of the New York Giants' final cutdowns. Similar in size to Hernandez, Tye has better straight-line speed and lateral movement - but on the down side, his run blocking is just as atrocious as the former Patriot.
Tye caught 90 balls for 859 yards and four touchdowns in two full seasons with the Giants, suggesting that despite his speed, Tye was used mainly as a safety valve in New York - and if he were to make the roster in New England, chances are he would be used the same way in Foxborough.
Dwayne Allen, on the other hand, is a tremendous blocker who can't get out of his own way in the pass pattern, while young Jacob Hollister offered little else besides being a moving target for highlight film collisions over the middle - add all of this together and the Patriots should be in the market for both depth and skilled youth.
In the past couple of days they have brought in Troy Niklas, late of the Arizona Cardinals, but he's been in the trainers' room more in two seasons than Gronkowski has in eight, and he left Foxborough without an offer - and there's really nothing left in free agency that either isn't on the wrong side of thirty or has some severe physical limitations.
That said, has tight end become a sudden area of high need for the Patriots? Probably so, but one won't find an elite combination tight end in the 2018 draft, so late on day two and early on day three of the draft is where the Patriots would likely be looking for a surprise gem at the position.
That excludes the likes of Goedert, Gesicki and Andrews who are all one dimensional yet are at the top of the draft class, which speaks to how limited the class is - but there are a few potential finds in the middle rounds - the best of them being Central Michigan's Tyler Conklin.
Conklin had a down year in 2017, statistically, due to a fracture in his foot in camp, but at 6' 3" tall and 245 pounds and with vice-like hands, he should be in the mix as a "move" tight end despite running poorly at the combine. He caught 35 balls for 504 yards in eight games and scored five times. Central Michigan had all kinds of quarterbacking problems in the past couple of seasons, but a look at his 2016 tape shows his potential.
A decent trap blocker on the edge in the running game makes him more draftable than some of the higher rated prospects, but he needs to learn how to use his body to shield defenders from the ball as a receiver, as he will allow linebackers and safeties to get inside to get a hand on the ball - which is all coaching - but once he gets his hands on a ball, chances are very good that he will haul it in.
Because of his broken foot last season, teams will be pressed to evaluate his durability, but his stock should remain stationary as a solid late-third, early-fourth round pick - just slightly better than North Carolina State's Jaylen Samuels, who isn't really even a tight end, but is listed as such because evaluators can't seem to put a label on the kid.
It isn't often that one sees a tight end listed at 5' 11" and 225 pounds, so scouts are telling Samuels that he will most likely be slotted as a running back in the pros, but his skill set screams "Utility player", for which the Patriots have a rich history of finding in the selection process.
He lined up all over the offense for the Wolfpack, seeing time at "move" tight end, H-back (which is what he really is), running back, slot receiver and lined up wide - and ended his career as NC State's all-time receptions leader, surpassing Jerricho Cotchery school record by catching 202 passes and averaging nearly 10 yards per and scoring 19 times...
...while as a runner, he averaged just over six yards per carry, gaining 1104 yards on just 180 carries, and scoring 28 rushing touchdowns while he was at it, and last season also assumed the goal line duties, making his yards per carry that much more impressive - and he also returned kicks for the 'Pack, averaging 20 yards per return.
Samuels is not as elusive as Dion Lewis is - very few runners actually are - but he compares favorably to Lewis in speed and toughness between the tackles, and has enough quickness to gain the edge as a runner and to carry the rock in a jailbreak screen scenario.
As mentioned, the 2018 draft class is not a very good one for tight ends, but it is excellent and deep in other areas where the Patriots are likely to be players - so it would be reasonable to expect that they would wait for value in the tight end class at the end of the second day and into the third day...
Saturday, March 24, 2018
Gronkowski's Ambivalence Towards 2018 Season Related To Belichick-Guerrero Tensions
So what's it going to be dude?
The "will he or won't he" speculation regarding Tight End Rob Gronkowski's rumored retirement took several twists past few weeks, when in-the-know NFL reporter Ian Rappaport tweeted that the monstrous man-child would play in 2018, and then Gronkowski's agent said not so fast - but in truth, there was no way that Gronkowski was going to retire no matter how ambiguous his own cryptic tweets made the situation seem.
Actually, Gronkowski's possible retirement, were there any real foundation to it, waxes nostalgic in one sense, as it compares to Barry Sanders' sudden retirement from football in 1998.
After the 1998 season, Sanders announced via correspondence to his hometown newspaper that he was retiring after ten seasons with the Detroit Lions, leaving behind millions in salary and a big mess for the powers-that-be in the National Football League, who were forced to bring in an arbitrator to rule on a Lions' demand of the repayment of part of his signing bonus.
Sanders offered to pay back the $5.5 million of the bonus which he had already received after signing a six-year contract a couple of years earlier, the lone stipulation being that Detroit grant him a release from his contract - and when the Lions refused, the league brought in the arbitrator and Detroit got back it's signing bonus, spread out over three years and Sanders remained retired.
It's impossible to know just how much Sanders had left in his tank, but it was obvious from his request to be released from his contract that he felt he had more to offer football, and was, in fact, a mere 1500 yards short of the all-time record for rushing yards in a career - which he could have surpassed with an average season (for him) on the ground.
But Sanders had often been heard saying that he was more concerned about his life after football than in setting records, and having been fortunate to have not suffered major injury in his career, he left the game as healthy as any 10-year veteran could.
The same can not be said about Gronkowski.
Having missed his entire junior season at the University of Arizona due to back surgery, and skipped his senior season to make himself available for the NFL draft, where all 32 teams initially passed on him in the first round because of the medical red flags and despite his obvious upside, and when he was still available on the 10th pick of the 2010 draft...
...and with the Baltimore Ravens poised to take him at number 11, Patriots' general manager Bill Belichick leapfrogged the Ravens, trading a sixth rounder to Oakland to move up and select Gronkowski. But after two superlative seasons that saw him win Rookie of the Week honors twice in 2010 and become an All Pro in 2011, his medical past came back to haunt him...and the Patriots.
In the 2011 AFC Championship game versus the Ravens, Gronkowski suffered a high ankle sprain and strained ligaments which hindered him in Super Bowl XLVI and required surgery in the offseason to repair - then late in 2012 he suffered a broken forearm against the Indianapolis Colts, but tried to come back for the playoffs, where he suffered a break on the not-fully-healed forearm.
After four surgeries and one infection on the forearm and a minor cleaning out procedure on his back, Gronkowski was able to return midway through the 2013 season, only to suffer a torn ACL and MCL, plus a concussion on a vicious hit from Cleveland Browns' safety T.J. Ward - but was bale to return in 2014 and play well enough to earn All Pro status for the third time and to win the Comeback Player of the Year award.
He played relatively injury-free football in 2015 and for most of 2015, before suffering a pulmonary contusion against the Seattle Seahawks which caused him to miss one game, only to suffer a herniated disc in his back the following week against the New York Jets, which ended his season - but in 2017 he came back from the procedure at full strength to earn his fifth nomination to the All Pro team, but suffered another concussion in the AFC Championship game against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Many assumed that it was his injury history taking a toll on him that prompted his talk of retirement, but lately the talk has been centered around Belichick's supposed feud with Tom Brady's personal trainer, Alex Guerrero, whom Gronkowski sought out last offseason and whom he credits for sustained flexibility and overall wellness.
So significant were the results of his training regimen with Guerrero, that other Patriots players started looking into what is known universally as the "TB12 Method" - and chatter is that Gronkowski felt disrespected because the team wanted him to train a certain way, and his body wasn't responding the way it had training under Guerrero.
The result, of course, was that Belichick suddenly had enough of Guerrero being a fly in his ointment, reportedly since 2015 when several of his training staff reported to Belichick that Guerrero's alternative methods were clashing with the regimen set forth by the often-times feisty head ball coach - and two years later when his prize tight end bulldog started making waves about not being allowed to train the way he wanted to, Belichick banned Guerrero from the locker room and the sidelines during games.
Of course, as far as any of us are concerned, that is all speculation, but it does feed into the air that surrounds Gronkowski's attitude, and the assertion of a Providence Journal columnist that the Patriots attempted to stop an article about the dietary changes he struggled to make to fall closer in line to the diet that Brady swears by.
Obviously, there are egos to be massaged here. Belichick runs his team the way he runs his team, and experiences some measure of aggravation when people try to test him on that count - so Brady has to be a constant strain on him, particularly since he told his staffers in 2015 that his hands were tied because of Brady's special status on the team.
For that, he can probably thank owner Bob Kraft, who considers Brady family.
While it's not good to give one player special status and expect the other members of the team to follow the prescribed regimen, whatever Brady is doing is working for him, and since the theory behind Guerrero's is "Prehab, not rehab", meaning to train in order to avoid injury, of course the oft-injured Gronkowski is going to hop on board.
There's no easy solution to this. Brady has his status, and that seems to be the bitch-kitty here. As long as Brady plays, the issue with Guerrero will exist.
Perhaps that is why there was such a stink at the trade deadline when Belichick traded heir-apparent Jimmy Garoppolo to the 49ers for second round draft capital instead of keeping him and having the fate of the entire organization resting a little easier - and as an ironic sidebar, there have been reports that Brady is planning on taking his retirement year-to-year...
...meaning that if Brady retires after the 2018 season, the quarterback position is not well-accounted for, and the trading of Garoppolo would then seem like an epic gaffe - and if the team had known this all along, Garoppolo would have been franchised, even at the expense of the salary cap, for the greater, long-term good.
He would also still have Gronkowski to contend with and would likely have to trade him or let him walk into free agency or into retirement at the end of the 2019 season to make the rift between Belichick and Guerrero go away.
But if Gronkowski is serious about hanging up his cleats, his circumstance is similar to the aforementioned Sanders in that he is the unquestioned best player at his position in the prime of his career, still under contract, and within reach of several NFL records for a tight end - and like Sanders, is already considered among the best to ever play the game and is most likely in line for a gold jacket.
But Gronkowski hasn't asked for his release and wouldn't receive it, anyway, because whether being released or retired, there would be some pretty severe financial considerations to attend to.
The first being that Gronkowski is slated to be the highest paid tight end in the league this season, with or without any incremental bonus structures like we saw with him last season, which would render moot any chatter about wanting to be the highest paid player at the position - not that we've heard any of that kind of talk from the Gronkowski camp...
...nor have we heard, well, anything from Gronkowski except for assorted cryptic hashtags on social media - though beat writers around New England are opining that Gronkowski's issues were more along the internal workings of the ball club line than anything health related, with one writer going so far as to say that there needed to be a clearing of the air among the power structure at One Patriot Place, while another opining that the Patriots should deal off Gronk to the highest bidder.
Indeed, clear the air - but that has already occurred and Belichick knows just where he stands in all of this and whatever happens with Gronkowski is going to be by Belichick's hand, not Kraft's and certainly not Gronkowski's, because there is a $4 million dead money hit to the salary cap whether he trades him or Gronkowski retires.
It could get ugly, and that would be a shame.
It doesn't have to, though. If Belichick could see that Gronkowski is committed to do for his body in order to be a healthier, better player, and if Gronkowski could stop antagonizing him with his childishly clandestine tweets, and if Bob Kraft could just stay in his office and leave the team to Belichick, it won't get ugly.
But given the egos involved, that's probably not going to happen. Good thing there's enough talent on the Patriots' roster to overcome the battle of the psyche's...
The "will he or won't he" speculation regarding Tight End Rob Gronkowski's rumored retirement took several twists past few weeks, when in-the-know NFL reporter Ian Rappaport tweeted that the monstrous man-child would play in 2018, and then Gronkowski's agent said not so fast - but in truth, there was no way that Gronkowski was going to retire no matter how ambiguous his own cryptic tweets made the situation seem.
Actually, Gronkowski's possible retirement, were there any real foundation to it, waxes nostalgic in one sense, as it compares to Barry Sanders' sudden retirement from football in 1998.
After the 1998 season, Sanders announced via correspondence to his hometown newspaper that he was retiring after ten seasons with the Detroit Lions, leaving behind millions in salary and a big mess for the powers-that-be in the National Football League, who were forced to bring in an arbitrator to rule on a Lions' demand of the repayment of part of his signing bonus.
Sanders offered to pay back the $5.5 million of the bonus which he had already received after signing a six-year contract a couple of years earlier, the lone stipulation being that Detroit grant him a release from his contract - and when the Lions refused, the league brought in the arbitrator and Detroit got back it's signing bonus, spread out over three years and Sanders remained retired.
It's impossible to know just how much Sanders had left in his tank, but it was obvious from his request to be released from his contract that he felt he had more to offer football, and was, in fact, a mere 1500 yards short of the all-time record for rushing yards in a career - which he could have surpassed with an average season (for him) on the ground.
But Sanders had often been heard saying that he was more concerned about his life after football than in setting records, and having been fortunate to have not suffered major injury in his career, he left the game as healthy as any 10-year veteran could.
The same can not be said about Gronkowski.
Having missed his entire junior season at the University of Arizona due to back surgery, and skipped his senior season to make himself available for the NFL draft, where all 32 teams initially passed on him in the first round because of the medical red flags and despite his obvious upside, and when he was still available on the 10th pick of the 2010 draft...
...and with the Baltimore Ravens poised to take him at number 11, Patriots' general manager Bill Belichick leapfrogged the Ravens, trading a sixth rounder to Oakland to move up and select Gronkowski. But after two superlative seasons that saw him win Rookie of the Week honors twice in 2010 and become an All Pro in 2011, his medical past came back to haunt him...and the Patriots.
In the 2011 AFC Championship game versus the Ravens, Gronkowski suffered a high ankle sprain and strained ligaments which hindered him in Super Bowl XLVI and required surgery in the offseason to repair - then late in 2012 he suffered a broken forearm against the Indianapolis Colts, but tried to come back for the playoffs, where he suffered a break on the not-fully-healed forearm.
After four surgeries and one infection on the forearm and a minor cleaning out procedure on his back, Gronkowski was able to return midway through the 2013 season, only to suffer a torn ACL and MCL, plus a concussion on a vicious hit from Cleveland Browns' safety T.J. Ward - but was bale to return in 2014 and play well enough to earn All Pro status for the third time and to win the Comeback Player of the Year award.
He played relatively injury-free football in 2015 and for most of 2015, before suffering a pulmonary contusion against the Seattle Seahawks which caused him to miss one game, only to suffer a herniated disc in his back the following week against the New York Jets, which ended his season - but in 2017 he came back from the procedure at full strength to earn his fifth nomination to the All Pro team, but suffered another concussion in the AFC Championship game against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Many assumed that it was his injury history taking a toll on him that prompted his talk of retirement, but lately the talk has been centered around Belichick's supposed feud with Tom Brady's personal trainer, Alex Guerrero, whom Gronkowski sought out last offseason and whom he credits for sustained flexibility and overall wellness.
So significant were the results of his training regimen with Guerrero, that other Patriots players started looking into what is known universally as the "TB12 Method" - and chatter is that Gronkowski felt disrespected because the team wanted him to train a certain way, and his body wasn't responding the way it had training under Guerrero.
The result, of course, was that Belichick suddenly had enough of Guerrero being a fly in his ointment, reportedly since 2015 when several of his training staff reported to Belichick that Guerrero's alternative methods were clashing with the regimen set forth by the often-times feisty head ball coach - and two years later when his prize tight end bulldog started making waves about not being allowed to train the way he wanted to, Belichick banned Guerrero from the locker room and the sidelines during games.
Of course, as far as any of us are concerned, that is all speculation, but it does feed into the air that surrounds Gronkowski's attitude, and the assertion of a Providence Journal columnist that the Patriots attempted to stop an article about the dietary changes he struggled to make to fall closer in line to the diet that Brady swears by.
Obviously, there are egos to be massaged here. Belichick runs his team the way he runs his team, and experiences some measure of aggravation when people try to test him on that count - so Brady has to be a constant strain on him, particularly since he told his staffers in 2015 that his hands were tied because of Brady's special status on the team.
For that, he can probably thank owner Bob Kraft, who considers Brady family.
While it's not good to give one player special status and expect the other members of the team to follow the prescribed regimen, whatever Brady is doing is working for him, and since the theory behind Guerrero's is "Prehab, not rehab", meaning to train in order to avoid injury, of course the oft-injured Gronkowski is going to hop on board.
There's no easy solution to this. Brady has his status, and that seems to be the bitch-kitty here. As long as Brady plays, the issue with Guerrero will exist.
Perhaps that is why there was such a stink at the trade deadline when Belichick traded heir-apparent Jimmy Garoppolo to the 49ers for second round draft capital instead of keeping him and having the fate of the entire organization resting a little easier - and as an ironic sidebar, there have been reports that Brady is planning on taking his retirement year-to-year...
...meaning that if Brady retires after the 2018 season, the quarterback position is not well-accounted for, and the trading of Garoppolo would then seem like an epic gaffe - and if the team had known this all along, Garoppolo would have been franchised, even at the expense of the salary cap, for the greater, long-term good.
He would also still have Gronkowski to contend with and would likely have to trade him or let him walk into free agency or into retirement at the end of the 2019 season to make the rift between Belichick and Guerrero go away.
But if Gronkowski is serious about hanging up his cleats, his circumstance is similar to the aforementioned Sanders in that he is the unquestioned best player at his position in the prime of his career, still under contract, and within reach of several NFL records for a tight end - and like Sanders, is already considered among the best to ever play the game and is most likely in line for a gold jacket.
But Gronkowski hasn't asked for his release and wouldn't receive it, anyway, because whether being released or retired, there would be some pretty severe financial considerations to attend to.
The first being that Gronkowski is slated to be the highest paid tight end in the league this season, with or without any incremental bonus structures like we saw with him last season, which would render moot any chatter about wanting to be the highest paid player at the position - not that we've heard any of that kind of talk from the Gronkowski camp...
...nor have we heard, well, anything from Gronkowski except for assorted cryptic hashtags on social media - though beat writers around New England are opining that Gronkowski's issues were more along the internal workings of the ball club line than anything health related, with one writer going so far as to say that there needed to be a clearing of the air among the power structure at One Patriot Place, while another opining that the Patriots should deal off Gronk to the highest bidder.
Indeed, clear the air - but that has already occurred and Belichick knows just where he stands in all of this and whatever happens with Gronkowski is going to be by Belichick's hand, not Kraft's and certainly not Gronkowski's, because there is a $4 million dead money hit to the salary cap whether he trades him or Gronkowski retires.
It could get ugly, and that would be a shame.
It doesn't have to, though. If Belichick could see that Gronkowski is committed to do for his body in order to be a healthier, better player, and if Gronkowski could stop antagonizing him with his childishly clandestine tweets, and if Bob Kraft could just stay in his office and leave the team to Belichick, it won't get ugly.
But given the egos involved, that's probably not going to happen. Good thing there's enough talent on the Patriots' roster to overcome the battle of the psyche's...
Monday, February 19, 2018
Patriots On Cusp Of Rebuilding, Or Will Belichick Somehow Reload With Slim Cap?
Ah, that devil salary cap.
Have the New England Patriots reached a point that they are entering a rebuilding mode?
Not quite yet, as you are about to read, but with many contracts ready to expire in the next couple of years, there is an urgency to find depth that will be able to ascend to starting positions as natural turnover occurs among aging players.
One such instance involves quarterback Tom Brady, whose insistence on playing well into his 40's destroyed what seemed to be the perfect succession plan at the position, as the Patriots were forced to unload backup Jimmy Garoppolo at the trade deadline - and while Brady did indeed play some of the best ball of his career in 2017, he also has shown some wear and a propensity for starting games slowly, needing a build up to return to form.
This is not to say that Brady is finished, as even a 41-something gunslinger at 80% of his former self is still better than anything else the National Football League can offer up, but having to resort to dealing off an obviously talented heir to the Patriots' quarterback position puts the team in a spot that they had covered, but now must spend time, effort and draft capital to realize once again.
Another position with some ambiguity to it is at tight end, where Rob Gronkowski claims that he's considering retirement, reportedly to go into acting or signing a contract to join the WWE as a professional wrestler - or both.
Even the thought of doing so sends chills down the spine of the most ardent fan, as Gronkowski opting out of his contract would leave the Patriots with an impossible hole to fill at the position as well as leaving their salary cap crippled with a $4 million dead money hit.
Speaking of the salary cap, the current numbers reflect that New England has $13,712,155 in cap space which rolls over into 2018 and should be accompanied by an $8 million increase at the start of the league year in mid-March, which means that they are not necessarily in dire straights so far as cap space is concerned, but they will still have to be creative to field a roster that will be competitive.
The problem is that the Patriots have slowly become top heavy in their cap, with the top six contracts on the roster - consisting of Brady, Stephon Gilmore, Devin McCourty, Gronkowski, Dont'a Hightower and Brandin Cooks - accounting for over 41% of the total cap space available, and if that is extended out to the top ten contracts, it absorbs nearly 55% of the cap, meaning that in accordance with the rule of 51, only 45% of the available money goes to the other 41 players on the roster.
This is a huge departure from years past when Belichick was able to build rosters with more balance to them, giving him the ability to attract the mid-level free agents that populated championship team after championship team.
It isn't that way any longer, so now Belichick will be forced to depart with some of his veteran players at other positions, not just to be able to afford to bring in free agents, but to keep his own proven players who are set to enter free agency in March - players that include the likes of left tackle Nate Solder, wide receiver Danny Amendola and running back Dion Lewis.
Fortunately, Belichick has some contracts on the board that can come off in favor of cap space if need be:
Martellus Bennett: $6,187,500 cap number, no dead money penalty. Bennett's 2018 contract becomes guaranteed if New England picks up his $2 million option before the start of the league year, and when gauged with talk of his retirement to pursue other projects, that makes his release a no-brainer - unless, that is, Gronkowski is serious about his own retirement, then Bennett becomes more valuable to the team than his cap number indicates.
Dwayne Allen: $5,000,000 cap number, no dead money penalty. Allen was invisible as a receiving threat in 2017, as his value to the team came as an inline blocker - which is a skill set that is plentiful on the team already, as swing tackles Can Fleming and LaAdrian Waddle have proven to be adept additions to the line in cases where six linemen are needed.
Alan Branch: $4,550,000 cap number, $1 million dead money penalty. Branch's production declined precipitously in 2018 as he entered camp out of shape and drew the ire of Belichick on more than one occasion. His time missed due to disciplinary procedure left New England without an experienced run-stopper on the line, but the Patriots do have options in the form of Vincent Valentine and Adam Butler, the former of which progressed to starter quality during the 2017 season.
Shea McClellin: $3,183,334 cap number, $833,334 dead money penalty. The former first round draft pick of the Bears lent some impact in 2016, but spent all of 2017 on the IR with a concussion and the resultant post-concussion syndrome. With a serious history of concussions and missing a full season with a serious one, the Patriots may find themselves in a spot to move on from a young, promising linebacker.
David Harris: $2,750,000 cap number, $675,000 dead money penalty. Unless they want Harris as a sideline cheerleader and a locker room presence, he's most likely gone. He played sparingly as one of the most curious usages of free agent talent in quite a few years.
Mike Gillislee: $2,181,250 cap number, no dead money penalty. This one is tough to figure out, as Gillislee did very well in Buffalo as a complimentary piece to Shady McCoy, but didn't show the burst and yards after contact, nor the receiving skill, that Belichick requires of his backs. That said, his fate probably rests on what Belichick decides to do with pending free agents Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead.
Phillip Dorsett: $1,544,373 cap Number, no dead money penalty. Dorsett was seldom used in the Patriots' part-time vertical scheme despite possessing deadly speed. He is an expendable contract with the likes of Cooks already on the roster and Julian Edelman slated to make his return.
Kenny Britt: $1,453,225 cap number, no dead money penalty. See above, Britt was brought in as insurance against Chris Hogan's protracted absence due to injury.
Jordan Richards: $1,180,947 cap number, $239,827 dead money penalty. If Belichick holds true to form, Richards' performance in the Super Bowl will be his last straw. He plays like a sluggish linebacker and has no feel or intuition for where the ball is going as a safety. Belichick got rid of Kyle Arrington under similar circumstances.
Assuming that the offseason sees these contracts come off the board, the Patriots would stand to gain just over $25 million in cap relief, which when married to their current cap rollover and the projected cap increase from the league of $8 million, the Patriots would have a grand total of nearly $47 million to work with in free agency.
Unfortunately, they have some contract situations that figure to chisel away at that number.
Most pressing would be the status of Solder, who has been protecting Brady's blindside for seven years, but with a sometimes erratic style that sees him stoning some of the best defensive ends in the game one week then getting jobbed by ordinary ends the next. Injuries and health issues have plagued him his entire career, which is probably why the Patriots spent third round draft capital on Troy's Antonio Garcia last season, but saw Garcia spend his entire rookie campaign on the non-football injury list with an unknown ailment.
Whether or not Garcia can return to full strength after losing a reported 40 pounds during his fight with whatever bug he contracted may be the deciding factor as to whether New England offers Solder a free agent contract - but with experienced left tackles being at a premium in the league, the Patriots are going to have a fight on their hands to retain him at a number that won't break the bank, as he should be able to rake in $12 million a year on the open market.
Lewis is another pressing contract. He reportedly wants $6 million per season over three years with at least $10 million guaranteed, but as has been written, Lewis' injury history reads like a Mary Shelley novel and he has but one full injury-free year on his resume. If other teams take that into consideration and offers him one-year "prove it" deals, it may play into New England's hands as they would most likely be willing to pony up a James White-style deal for $4 to $5 million a year with a guarantee for performance only.
Lastly, Danny Amendola has earned a spot on this roster, but at age 32 and with a history of both injury and discounted contract moves, the Patriot would likely only offer him a two-year deal worth around what is listed above for Lewis.
There are other circumstances to consider, mostly revolving around a talented 2015 rookie class coming up for extension beyond 2018, but those will be handled individually as this series continues.
But given the scenarios above with Solder, Lewis and Amendola being given respective contracts, that would lower the cap space that Belichck has to work with to around $30 million, with forethought to draft picks, which will eat up around $4 million this year, and priority to the aforementioned 2015 rookie class coming up for contracts, don't expect Belichick to dole out a lot of money in open free agency.
After all, he doesn't really have to, as his core of players came within a few bad play calls of winning a sixth Lombardi Trophy a few weeks ago - so it would be good business to take care of his own, make sure he has an impact draft and use free agency as a last resort.
Have the New England Patriots reached a point that they are entering a rebuilding mode?
Not quite yet, as you are about to read, but with many contracts ready to expire in the next couple of years, there is an urgency to find depth that will be able to ascend to starting positions as natural turnover occurs among aging players.
One such instance involves quarterback Tom Brady, whose insistence on playing well into his 40's destroyed what seemed to be the perfect succession plan at the position, as the Patriots were forced to unload backup Jimmy Garoppolo at the trade deadline - and while Brady did indeed play some of the best ball of his career in 2017, he also has shown some wear and a propensity for starting games slowly, needing a build up to return to form.
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| Will the Patriots have the cap room to bring back Amendola? |
This is not to say that Brady is finished, as even a 41-something gunslinger at 80% of his former self is still better than anything else the National Football League can offer up, but having to resort to dealing off an obviously talented heir to the Patriots' quarterback position puts the team in a spot that they had covered, but now must spend time, effort and draft capital to realize once again.
Another position with some ambiguity to it is at tight end, where Rob Gronkowski claims that he's considering retirement, reportedly to go into acting or signing a contract to join the WWE as a professional wrestler - or both.
Even the thought of doing so sends chills down the spine of the most ardent fan, as Gronkowski opting out of his contract would leave the Patriots with an impossible hole to fill at the position as well as leaving their salary cap crippled with a $4 million dead money hit.
Speaking of the salary cap, the current numbers reflect that New England has $13,712,155 in cap space which rolls over into 2018 and should be accompanied by an $8 million increase at the start of the league year in mid-March, which means that they are not necessarily in dire straights so far as cap space is concerned, but they will still have to be creative to field a roster that will be competitive.
The problem is that the Patriots have slowly become top heavy in their cap, with the top six contracts on the roster - consisting of Brady, Stephon Gilmore, Devin McCourty, Gronkowski, Dont'a Hightower and Brandin Cooks - accounting for over 41% of the total cap space available, and if that is extended out to the top ten contracts, it absorbs nearly 55% of the cap, meaning that in accordance with the rule of 51, only 45% of the available money goes to the other 41 players on the roster.
This is a huge departure from years past when Belichick was able to build rosters with more balance to them, giving him the ability to attract the mid-level free agents that populated championship team after championship team.
It isn't that way any longer, so now Belichick will be forced to depart with some of his veteran players at other positions, not just to be able to afford to bring in free agents, but to keep his own proven players who are set to enter free agency in March - players that include the likes of left tackle Nate Solder, wide receiver Danny Amendola and running back Dion Lewis.
Fortunately, Belichick has some contracts on the board that can come off in favor of cap space if need be:
Martellus Bennett: $6,187,500 cap number, no dead money penalty. Bennett's 2018 contract becomes guaranteed if New England picks up his $2 million option before the start of the league year, and when gauged with talk of his retirement to pursue other projects, that makes his release a no-brainer - unless, that is, Gronkowski is serious about his own retirement, then Bennett becomes more valuable to the team than his cap number indicates.
Dwayne Allen: $5,000,000 cap number, no dead money penalty. Allen was invisible as a receiving threat in 2017, as his value to the team came as an inline blocker - which is a skill set that is plentiful on the team already, as swing tackles Can Fleming and LaAdrian Waddle have proven to be adept additions to the line in cases where six linemen are needed.
Alan Branch: $4,550,000 cap number, $1 million dead money penalty. Branch's production declined precipitously in 2018 as he entered camp out of shape and drew the ire of Belichick on more than one occasion. His time missed due to disciplinary procedure left New England without an experienced run-stopper on the line, but the Patriots do have options in the form of Vincent Valentine and Adam Butler, the former of which progressed to starter quality during the 2017 season.
Shea McClellin: $3,183,334 cap number, $833,334 dead money penalty. The former first round draft pick of the Bears lent some impact in 2016, but spent all of 2017 on the IR with a concussion and the resultant post-concussion syndrome. With a serious history of concussions and missing a full season with a serious one, the Patriots may find themselves in a spot to move on from a young, promising linebacker.
David Harris: $2,750,000 cap number, $675,000 dead money penalty. Unless they want Harris as a sideline cheerleader and a locker room presence, he's most likely gone. He played sparingly as one of the most curious usages of free agent talent in quite a few years.
Mike Gillislee: $2,181,250 cap number, no dead money penalty. This one is tough to figure out, as Gillislee did very well in Buffalo as a complimentary piece to Shady McCoy, but didn't show the burst and yards after contact, nor the receiving skill, that Belichick requires of his backs. That said, his fate probably rests on what Belichick decides to do with pending free agents Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead.
Phillip Dorsett: $1,544,373 cap Number, no dead money penalty. Dorsett was seldom used in the Patriots' part-time vertical scheme despite possessing deadly speed. He is an expendable contract with the likes of Cooks already on the roster and Julian Edelman slated to make his return.
Kenny Britt: $1,453,225 cap number, no dead money penalty. See above, Britt was brought in as insurance against Chris Hogan's protracted absence due to injury.
Jordan Richards: $1,180,947 cap number, $239,827 dead money penalty. If Belichick holds true to form, Richards' performance in the Super Bowl will be his last straw. He plays like a sluggish linebacker and has no feel or intuition for where the ball is going as a safety. Belichick got rid of Kyle Arrington under similar circumstances.
Assuming that the offseason sees these contracts come off the board, the Patriots would stand to gain just over $25 million in cap relief, which when married to their current cap rollover and the projected cap increase from the league of $8 million, the Patriots would have a grand total of nearly $47 million to work with in free agency.
Unfortunately, they have some contract situations that figure to chisel away at that number.
Most pressing would be the status of Solder, who has been protecting Brady's blindside for seven years, but with a sometimes erratic style that sees him stoning some of the best defensive ends in the game one week then getting jobbed by ordinary ends the next. Injuries and health issues have plagued him his entire career, which is probably why the Patriots spent third round draft capital on Troy's Antonio Garcia last season, but saw Garcia spend his entire rookie campaign on the non-football injury list with an unknown ailment.
Whether or not Garcia can return to full strength after losing a reported 40 pounds during his fight with whatever bug he contracted may be the deciding factor as to whether New England offers Solder a free agent contract - but with experienced left tackles being at a premium in the league, the Patriots are going to have a fight on their hands to retain him at a number that won't break the bank, as he should be able to rake in $12 million a year on the open market.
Lewis is another pressing contract. He reportedly wants $6 million per season over three years with at least $10 million guaranteed, but as has been written, Lewis' injury history reads like a Mary Shelley novel and he has but one full injury-free year on his resume. If other teams take that into consideration and offers him one-year "prove it" deals, it may play into New England's hands as they would most likely be willing to pony up a James White-style deal for $4 to $5 million a year with a guarantee for performance only.
Lastly, Danny Amendola has earned a spot on this roster, but at age 32 and with a history of both injury and discounted contract moves, the Patriot would likely only offer him a two-year deal worth around what is listed above for Lewis.
There are other circumstances to consider, mostly revolving around a talented 2015 rookie class coming up for extension beyond 2018, but those will be handled individually as this series continues.
But given the scenarios above with Solder, Lewis and Amendola being given respective contracts, that would lower the cap space that Belichck has to work with to around $30 million, with forethought to draft picks, which will eat up around $4 million this year, and priority to the aforementioned 2015 rookie class coming up for contracts, don't expect Belichick to dole out a lot of money in open free agency.
After all, he doesn't really have to, as his core of players came within a few bad play calls of winning a sixth Lombardi Trophy a few weeks ago - so it would be good business to take care of his own, make sure he has an impact draft and use free agency as a last resort.
Wednesday, January 17, 2018
Sneaky Good Amendola Clutch As Usual In Playoff Setting, But Has Been That Way All Season
The quarterback rolled to his right, escaping the collapsing pocket through a large gap created by his linemen who escorted the strong-side pass rush up and over the imaginary protective bubble, headed towards the line of scrimmage, where just beyond his receiver was engaged in a hand fight with the opposing cornerback...
...the receiver locking eyes with the quarterback as he pump-faked the ball once to cause the corner to react and break discipline on the receiver, who took advantage of the fake and sprinted towards the opposite sideline, raising his hand to give the quarterback a target over the big bodies converging on him...
And, yes.
When New England Patriots' wide receiver Danny Amendola saw Tom Brady breaking the pocket and chugging into the flat, he locked eyes with Brady who, by sheer familiarity with Amendola knew that he was going to sprint to the open flat on the opposite side. Brady stopped just short of the line of scrimmage, set his feet and fell backwards, lofting the ball over the outstretched arms of three defenders...
...delivering a perfect bucket throw that gained a first down and kept the Patriots' final scoring drive alive. Not that they needed more points, but once you get locked into a serious point scoring groove, the tendency is to push it as far as you can.
Amendola had other receptions in the 35-14 victory over the Titans - eleven to be exact - but that was most highlight reel worthy play of the bunch. That's because Amendola is anything but flashy - he doesn't possess elite speed, has all the size of a standard garden gnome and an injury history that reads like a human anatomy quiz...
...but it's worth noting that of those eleven receptions, seven went for first downs and five of those converted third downs - and you wouldn't know it unless you looked at the box scores the next morning.
Something else you probably wouldn't know is that including the performance against the Titans, Amendola is the second-leading receiver on the entire Patriots' roster with 72, behind only tight end Rob Gronkowski's 75 - of course, Gronkowski has a huge edge in yardage gained, but that's not the point.
The point is that Danny Amendola had a solid season. In fact, Amendola has the third most receptions in the league among teams remaining in the tournament, behind only Philly's Zach Ertz and Gronkowski.
Known for being especially clutch in the postseason and an afterthought during the regular season, Amendola teams with Gronkowski and running backs James White, Rex Burkhead and Dion Lewis to form the most formidable short game in the league, built particularly to take advantage of linebackers and safeties in isolation.
The versatility of the backs in particular make things challenging for opposing defensive coordinators - even for Todd Wash, the defensive coordinator for the upstart Jacksonville Jaguars who has guided his charges to being recognized as one of the top set of stoppers in the league and lead all of professional football in passing yards allowed.
That number is skewed some, however, when one considers that the Jaguars were thrown against only 509 times this season, which was fourth lowest mark in the league - why? Simply because their opponents had such success in rushing against them (4.3 yards per carry), so why test that excellent secondary?
With the backs that New England employs, defenses must be aware of the threat of the run, even on obvious passing downs, which gives the Patriots the advantage of fully calling upon their play action, led by the master of the play fake in Brady, whose wizardry and slight of hand can stagger a pass rusher and freeze a linebacker...
...and whose skill at looking off defenders only to burn them is unmatched, which can only help against the Jaguars' secondary, who are playoff neophytes despite their successes and regular season experience.
They get to deal with the likes of Brandin Cooks, Chris Hogan, Phillip Dorsett and Kenny Britt - not to mention Gronkowski up the seam - who will rotate in and out of the lineup like a hockey line changing out, taking turns running corners down the field and just plain running them down. And if Brady is on with the uptempo game, the trend has been that he can toy with an exhausted defense for the entire second half.
And when a defense allows a quarterback like Brady artistic expression, the entire world gets to see Brady playing like he's drawing up plays in the dirt - a true men among boys, as it were.
And that's where Amendola makes his bones, hauling in the tough circus catch or a laser beam to the sidelines like he did in the overtime session of last February's Super Bowl to extend the game-winning drive - that notion, married to his performance in last Saturday's victory over Tennessee, causing Gronkowski to label him Danny "Playoff" Amendola for his penchant for heroics when the lights are the brightest and the stage is the largest.
But it's really just Danny Amendola - or "Dola", if you prefer - because he's just as clutch in the regular season. Just no one really notices.
...the receiver locking eyes with the quarterback as he pump-faked the ball once to cause the corner to react and break discipline on the receiver, who took advantage of the fake and sprinted towards the opposite sideline, raising his hand to give the quarterback a target over the big bodies converging on him...
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| Amendola, Gronk and Hogan celebrate a touchdown vs. Titans |
And, yes.
When New England Patriots' wide receiver Danny Amendola saw Tom Brady breaking the pocket and chugging into the flat, he locked eyes with Brady who, by sheer familiarity with Amendola knew that he was going to sprint to the open flat on the opposite side. Brady stopped just short of the line of scrimmage, set his feet and fell backwards, lofting the ball over the outstretched arms of three defenders...
...delivering a perfect bucket throw that gained a first down and kept the Patriots' final scoring drive alive. Not that they needed more points, but once you get locked into a serious point scoring groove, the tendency is to push it as far as you can.
Amendola had other receptions in the 35-14 victory over the Titans - eleven to be exact - but that was most highlight reel worthy play of the bunch. That's because Amendola is anything but flashy - he doesn't possess elite speed, has all the size of a standard garden gnome and an injury history that reads like a human anatomy quiz...
...but it's worth noting that of those eleven receptions, seven went for first downs and five of those converted third downs - and you wouldn't know it unless you looked at the box scores the next morning.
Something else you probably wouldn't know is that including the performance against the Titans, Amendola is the second-leading receiver on the entire Patriots' roster with 72, behind only tight end Rob Gronkowski's 75 - of course, Gronkowski has a huge edge in yardage gained, but that's not the point.
The point is that Danny Amendola had a solid season. In fact, Amendola has the third most receptions in the league among teams remaining in the tournament, behind only Philly's Zach Ertz and Gronkowski.
Known for being especially clutch in the postseason and an afterthought during the regular season, Amendola teams with Gronkowski and running backs James White, Rex Burkhead and Dion Lewis to form the most formidable short game in the league, built particularly to take advantage of linebackers and safeties in isolation.
The versatility of the backs in particular make things challenging for opposing defensive coordinators - even for Todd Wash, the defensive coordinator for the upstart Jacksonville Jaguars who has guided his charges to being recognized as one of the top set of stoppers in the league and lead all of professional football in passing yards allowed.
That number is skewed some, however, when one considers that the Jaguars were thrown against only 509 times this season, which was fourth lowest mark in the league - why? Simply because their opponents had such success in rushing against them (4.3 yards per carry), so why test that excellent secondary?
With the backs that New England employs, defenses must be aware of the threat of the run, even on obvious passing downs, which gives the Patriots the advantage of fully calling upon their play action, led by the master of the play fake in Brady, whose wizardry and slight of hand can stagger a pass rusher and freeze a linebacker...
...and whose skill at looking off defenders only to burn them is unmatched, which can only help against the Jaguars' secondary, who are playoff neophytes despite their successes and regular season experience.
They get to deal with the likes of Brandin Cooks, Chris Hogan, Phillip Dorsett and Kenny Britt - not to mention Gronkowski up the seam - who will rotate in and out of the lineup like a hockey line changing out, taking turns running corners down the field and just plain running them down. And if Brady is on with the uptempo game, the trend has been that he can toy with an exhausted defense for the entire second half.
And when a defense allows a quarterback like Brady artistic expression, the entire world gets to see Brady playing like he's drawing up plays in the dirt - a true men among boys, as it were.
And that's where Amendola makes his bones, hauling in the tough circus catch or a laser beam to the sidelines like he did in the overtime session of last February's Super Bowl to extend the game-winning drive - that notion, married to his performance in last Saturday's victory over Tennessee, causing Gronkowski to label him Danny "Playoff" Amendola for his penchant for heroics when the lights are the brightest and the stage is the largest.
But it's really just Danny Amendola - or "Dola", if you prefer - because he's just as clutch in the regular season. Just no one really notices.
Monday, December 4, 2017
Running Game, Defense Dominate In Patriots' Punking Of Buffalo
The Buffalo Bills came into their week thirteen contest against the New England Patriots averaging four yards per carry on offense, and giving up 4.1 yards per carry on defense, while the Patriots came in averaging that same 4.1 yards per carry but yielding an NFL worst 4.9 yards per run...
...obviously, both teams expected to be able to run the ball and both expected to give up some runs on defense - and both teams did just that.
The difference between winning and losing fell on the shoulders of each team's quarterback play - and when Tom Brady is in that mix, one can pretty much guess how Sunday's matchup at New Era Field turned out for both sides, everything else being equal.
Dion Lewis ran for 92 yards on fifteen carries and Rex Burkhead chipped in 78 yards on 12 carries to pace the New England's ground attack while Shady McCoy ground out 93 yards on 15 carries and three Bills' quarterbacks logged another 68 yards on seven scrambles to counter the Patriots' runners...
...but after a slow start, Brady put up 258 yards on 22 completions - nine going to tight end Rob Gronkowski for 147 yards - as the Patriots pulled away from Buffalo in the second half for their eighth straight victory, a 23-3 final score leaving the Bills teetering on the edge of playoff relevancy and pushing New England closer to an inevitable division title.
Overall, the Patriots totaled 191 yards on 35 carries while the Bills backs romped for 183 yards on 26 carries - a virtual wash which left the game in the hands of Brady and Buffalo's Tyrod Taylor, which just isn't fair.
Taylor has perhaps the worst pass catching corps in the National Football League, which helps explain his 9 for 18 performance for just 65 yards - and even a quarterback change in the fourth quarter didn't help, as rookie Nathan Peterman fared even worse, going 6 for 15 for 50 yards, but leading a late drive that nearly resulted in points, were it not for former Bills' cornerback Stephon Gilmore putting in his best performance as a Patriot...
...perfectly playing the ball on three Peterman passes, two of which were lofts into the end zone that Gilmore knocked harmlessly to the ground. How bad was it for Buffalo's maligned pass catching corps? Their leading receiver on the day was rookie Zay Jones, who caught just two of seven targets, for a miserable 22 yards.
Brady, on the other hand, has one of the best stables of pass catchers in the league, even with wide receivers Julian Edelman and Chris Hogan on the shelf - but he had a tough time connecting with them on Sunday as Buffalo's two-deep zone proved to be a brick wall outside the numbers during the first half of the game, holding the sure first-ballot Hall of Famer to just eight of fourteen for 98 yards.
But the Patriots rectified that by going to Gronkowski, who came out of the room at halftime like a lobsterman off the Calendar Islands, snaring passes from Brady for fifty of the Patriots seventy yards on New England's first touchdown drive, which would have been even more had he not been called for a sketchy offensive pass interference early in the drive.
Burkhead finished off that drive with a short power shot to give New England a two-score lead, then got loose on the second level for a 14 yard score on the next possession, set up by a Gronkowski 30-yard 50-50 jump ball over Buffalo's TreDavious White on a play that epitomized the massive man-child's athletic superiority over any defender he squares off against...
...and which may have precipitated an ugly incident at the end of the game where White was grappling with Gronkowski in the pattern, then gave him a shove as the ball was in the air, intercepting the ball with ease - but then had his bell rung on a cheap shot by a frustrated Gronkowski who gave White his own rendition of a WWE-style elbow to his head while he was prone on the sidelines.
The incident left a black stain on what was otherwise an outstanding half of football for Gronkowski and has resulted in a one-game suspension, but it may bring into focus the constant mugging that Gronkowski has to endure from defensive backs and linebackers, which could ultimately change the way that referees officiate and give him a little more latitude in the pattern.
Then again, maybe not, but the fact remains that Gronkowski's momentary lack of discipline stemmed from the frustration of having to fight off defenders just to get his hands on the football. "I felt like he pushed me and made the play, I just didn't understand why there wasn't a flag." Gronkowski said after the game, adding, "it was a couple of times in the game, and they're calling me for the craziest stuff ever. And it's crazy, like, what am I supposed to do?"
Well, the first thing he needs to do is meet with the league commissioner on Tuesday morning to appeal his one-game suspension handed down by the NFL on Monday afternoon, and plead his case.
His frustration is understandable, if not tolerated, and it makes one wonder if there are different rules for different players - but don't say that to the Patriots' defenders, who had a banner day covering Buffalo's receivers and, with sack yardage deducted, held the Bills' passing game to a putrid 89 net yards...
...all while holding their eighth consecutive opponent to less than 17 points, the lone field goal surrendered dropping their points per game average during their winning streak to 11.8 and elevates them to a top ten scoring defense at the same time.
Not bad for a defense that started the year being pummeled in their first four games to the tune of 32 points per game, which has now dropped to a season-low mark of 18.5.
Stephon Gilmore earned high praise for his coverage, allowing just two catches over six targets and notching tow passes defended - but he wasn't alone in the encouraging play as combined with Malcolm Butler, Eric Rowe and Jonathan Jones, the Bills' quarterbacks were 6 of 17 for 56 yards and a dismal passer rating of 54.2...
...while New England's pass rushers abused the Bills' offensive line, getting to Taylor for four sacks, former Buffalo practice squader Eric Lee in on the action for a sack-and-a-half , logged four tackles and picked off Taylor in the red zone to squelch an early Bills' scoring opportunity - and to add insult to injury, former Buffalo defensive tackle Alan Branch drove his mirror into Taylor as he released that ball, leading to the errant throw that Lee gathered in.
Ah, teamwork. Bill Belichick calls it complementary football, and combined with another instance of excellent special teams play, the Patriots are nearing their pinnacle of execution for the season - meaning that what we see now is what we get for the remainder of the season.
And with the running game dominating, opening up the play action for the passing game and the defense playing out of their minds, this 2017 version of the New England Patriots look like they are primed for yet another deep run in the postseason - and they can wrap up a ninth consecutive division title - and their 15th out of 17 with Brady at the helm - with a win at Miami next Monday night...
Thursday, November 30, 2017
Brady Playing His Best Ball As A Quadragenarian, But He's Not Doing It All By Himself
Clearly, Tom Brady has escorted all of us in to the surreal.
The New England Patriots' quarterback continued his Old Geezer Tour by not only throwing for four touchdowns, nor just leading his team to their seventh-straight victory, but is doing so playing perhaps the best football of his career, delivering a standard-brand, workman-like thrashing of his old rival Miami Dolphins on Sunday afternoon...
...in fact, the 35-17 victory at Gillette Stadium was unremarkable with the exception of the fact that for the first time in Brady's 17 seasons at the helm, the Patriots' offense is truly balanced - but not balanced in the way that one would logically expect, because in New England, balance on offense means something different than it does elsewhere.
Traditionally, balance on offense in football is measured by the difference between running plays and passing plays, and in that respect, the New England Patriots could be considered anything but balanced, as they are decidedly pass heavy - but to understand the Patriot Way as it refers to roster building and game planning, all one has to do is look at the way Brady and his cohorts undressed the Dolphins' defense.
The Patriots ran sixty-six plays on offense against Miami, totaling 423 yards of offensive production - with the backs accounting for 33 carries and six targets in the passing game, ending the day with sixty percent of the total touches and 181 yards between them, accounting for 43% of New England's total offense and two touchdowns...
...receiver Brandin Cooks and tight end Rob Gronkowski accounting the majority of the rest along with three of the scores - Gronkowski hauling in two short scoring passes in the left flat and Cooks taking a shuffle pass that looked more like a jet sweep and following the massive man-child into the end zone - not bad considering that names such as Edelman and, more recently, Hogan have been on the shelf.
And, why not? After all, the Patriots' offense is lead by the greatest quarterback that ever lived, who is enjoying a supporting cast of pass catchers that buys into the concept-based offense that requires them to run whatever route necessary from whatever position along the line of scrimmage - and that doesn't just apply to wide receivers, as the tight end depth chart and stable of running backs are held to the same standard.
The result is what we've been witnessing since Halloween, and that should be scaring the rest of the National Football League in a way that zombies, vampires and unicorns can't.
The balance that the Patriots are enjoying comes in the form of total touches. This season, the Patriots have run 743 plays on offense, and when breaking those down between designated receivers, tight ends and backs, the numbers confirm the tremendous balance that Brady is succeeding with.
Of those 743 plays, the Patriots' running backs have handled the ball on 412 of those snaps, which is a full 56%. The tight ends have handled the rock 105 times (14%), which leaves a meager 30% of the offensive snaps actually targeting the wide receivers. Of course, the total yardage is skewed as the backs are not going to be picking up yardage at the pace the speedy wideouts are going to...
...but thanks to the efforts of Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead, the actual running game is now averaging a potent 4.1 yards per carry, which means that Brady can more forcefully sell the play action, which, in theory, gives him more time in the pocket to go through his progressions without being stomped like a grape.
Which happened against Miami anyway, as Brady took several nasty shots as he was releasing the ball, mostly because the Dolphins' pass rushers took advantage of backups playing at center and at right tackle, but as he dropped back to pass just 28 times - completing eighteen for 227 yards and four scores - they were able to limit the amount of abuse he was subjected to.
Contrarily, the left side of the offensive line has really stepped things up with Nate Solder and Joe Thuney limiting the pressure to Brady's blind side to just two hurries. After missing two weeks with altitude-related flu-like symptoms, regular center David Andrews is due back against Buffalo, leaving only the right tackle spot manned by depth.
And that's important to remember going forward. The quadragenarian is on the cusp on uncharted territory, and his vow to play until he's 45 would be a lot more tangible were he to not take beatings like the one he took on Sunday, even in moderation. That's where the Patriots' adaptation of balance comes into focus.
Brady is playing the best ball of his career in large part to head ball coach Bill Belichick surrounding him with the best, most diverse set of weapons he's had in his career, providing the best balance he's had to work with and behind a line that has taken a while to gel, but has surrendered "only" eleven sacks during the seven-game winning streak - a stark contrast to the 13 they gave up in the first four games of the season.
It also helps if the offense gets off to a fast start and plays with the lead.
During their current seven-game winning streak, the Patriots have scored first in five of those contests - not surprisingly, the ones they didn't pull the early lead in against New York and the Los Angeles Chargers were games that they struggled in - and have not trailed in a game since the Chargers took a seven-point lead on them in the first quarter of a game played a month ago.
Do the math, and you will find that New England has not trailed in a game in what amounts to 225 minutes and counting - which means that the since New England came off of their week nine bye, they have posted three consecutive blowouts, outscoring the Broncos, Raiders and Dolphins by a combined 109-41, and 65-19 in the first half.
Of course, not all of that came from the effort of the offense, as the Patriots' defense has also figured into the balance equation by not only holding teams to just 12 points per game during their winning streak, but in doing so in tandem with superior special teams play that satisfies Belichick's insistence on complementary football.
But that is for another piece at another time.
Right now, we are celebrating the fact that Brady has broken a record that has been held since Warren Moon threw for 25 touchdowns in 1997, and equaled by Brett Favre in 2009, his 26 touchdown passes the most ever thrown by a 40 year old quarterback - a number that is sure to grow since the scoring strikes by Moon and Favre came in full 16-game seasons, while Brady has five games yet to play...
...and while that record is merely an incident of incongruous juxtapositions among a very limited field of athletes, it nevertheless conjures yet another example of why Brady is the greatest quarterback that ever played the game, and has now become the gold standard of passers playing into their forties.
Brady is at the point in his career that he is going to be breaking records virtually every time that he takes a snap from center - lost in all of this, however, is that it takes skill of the players surrounding him to do their jobs and a constant array of individual game-planning to put Brady in position to do all of these wonderful things.
It is a team effort, after all, and football is a team game. There is zero doubt, however, even among his most ardent critics that Brady is the greatest of all time and that the Patriots likely would not have enjoyed their current dynastic run of success were he not under center - so that wisdom cuts both ways.
Let's just say that Brady and his teammates play complementary football, and leave it at that.
The New England Patriots' quarterback continued his Old Geezer Tour by not only throwing for four touchdowns, nor just leading his team to their seventh-straight victory, but is doing so playing perhaps the best football of his career, delivering a standard-brand, workman-like thrashing of his old rival Miami Dolphins on Sunday afternoon...
...in fact, the 35-17 victory at Gillette Stadium was unremarkable with the exception of the fact that for the first time in Brady's 17 seasons at the helm, the Patriots' offense is truly balanced - but not balanced in the way that one would logically expect, because in New England, balance on offense means something different than it does elsewhere.
Traditionally, balance on offense in football is measured by the difference between running plays and passing plays, and in that respect, the New England Patriots could be considered anything but balanced, as they are decidedly pass heavy - but to understand the Patriot Way as it refers to roster building and game planning, all one has to do is look at the way Brady and his cohorts undressed the Dolphins' defense.
The Patriots ran sixty-six plays on offense against Miami, totaling 423 yards of offensive production - with the backs accounting for 33 carries and six targets in the passing game, ending the day with sixty percent of the total touches and 181 yards between them, accounting for 43% of New England's total offense and two touchdowns...
...receiver Brandin Cooks and tight end Rob Gronkowski accounting the majority of the rest along with three of the scores - Gronkowski hauling in two short scoring passes in the left flat and Cooks taking a shuffle pass that looked more like a jet sweep and following the massive man-child into the end zone - not bad considering that names such as Edelman and, more recently, Hogan have been on the shelf.
And, why not? After all, the Patriots' offense is lead by the greatest quarterback that ever lived, who is enjoying a supporting cast of pass catchers that buys into the concept-based offense that requires them to run whatever route necessary from whatever position along the line of scrimmage - and that doesn't just apply to wide receivers, as the tight end depth chart and stable of running backs are held to the same standard.
The result is what we've been witnessing since Halloween, and that should be scaring the rest of the National Football League in a way that zombies, vampires and unicorns can't.
The balance that the Patriots are enjoying comes in the form of total touches. This season, the Patriots have run 743 plays on offense, and when breaking those down between designated receivers, tight ends and backs, the numbers confirm the tremendous balance that Brady is succeeding with.
Of those 743 plays, the Patriots' running backs have handled the ball on 412 of those snaps, which is a full 56%. The tight ends have handled the rock 105 times (14%), which leaves a meager 30% of the offensive snaps actually targeting the wide receivers. Of course, the total yardage is skewed as the backs are not going to be picking up yardage at the pace the speedy wideouts are going to...
...but thanks to the efforts of Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead, the actual running game is now averaging a potent 4.1 yards per carry, which means that Brady can more forcefully sell the play action, which, in theory, gives him more time in the pocket to go through his progressions without being stomped like a grape.
Which happened against Miami anyway, as Brady took several nasty shots as he was releasing the ball, mostly because the Dolphins' pass rushers took advantage of backups playing at center and at right tackle, but as he dropped back to pass just 28 times - completing eighteen for 227 yards and four scores - they were able to limit the amount of abuse he was subjected to.
Contrarily, the left side of the offensive line has really stepped things up with Nate Solder and Joe Thuney limiting the pressure to Brady's blind side to just two hurries. After missing two weeks with altitude-related flu-like symptoms, regular center David Andrews is due back against Buffalo, leaving only the right tackle spot manned by depth.
And that's important to remember going forward. The quadragenarian is on the cusp on uncharted territory, and his vow to play until he's 45 would be a lot more tangible were he to not take beatings like the one he took on Sunday, even in moderation. That's where the Patriots' adaptation of balance comes into focus.
Brady is playing the best ball of his career in large part to head ball coach Bill Belichick surrounding him with the best, most diverse set of weapons he's had in his career, providing the best balance he's had to work with and behind a line that has taken a while to gel, but has surrendered "only" eleven sacks during the seven-game winning streak - a stark contrast to the 13 they gave up in the first four games of the season.
It also helps if the offense gets off to a fast start and plays with the lead.
During their current seven-game winning streak, the Patriots have scored first in five of those contests - not surprisingly, the ones they didn't pull the early lead in against New York and the Los Angeles Chargers were games that they struggled in - and have not trailed in a game since the Chargers took a seven-point lead on them in the first quarter of a game played a month ago.
Do the math, and you will find that New England has not trailed in a game in what amounts to 225 minutes and counting - which means that the since New England came off of their week nine bye, they have posted three consecutive blowouts, outscoring the Broncos, Raiders and Dolphins by a combined 109-41, and 65-19 in the first half.
Of course, not all of that came from the effort of the offense, as the Patriots' defense has also figured into the balance equation by not only holding teams to just 12 points per game during their winning streak, but in doing so in tandem with superior special teams play that satisfies Belichick's insistence on complementary football.
But that is for another piece at another time.
Right now, we are celebrating the fact that Brady has broken a record that has been held since Warren Moon threw for 25 touchdowns in 1997, and equaled by Brett Favre in 2009, his 26 touchdown passes the most ever thrown by a 40 year old quarterback - a number that is sure to grow since the scoring strikes by Moon and Favre came in full 16-game seasons, while Brady has five games yet to play...
...and while that record is merely an incident of incongruous juxtapositions among a very limited field of athletes, it nevertheless conjures yet another example of why Brady is the greatest quarterback that ever played the game, and has now become the gold standard of passers playing into their forties.
Brady is at the point in his career that he is going to be breaking records virtually every time that he takes a snap from center - lost in all of this, however, is that it takes skill of the players surrounding him to do their jobs and a constant array of individual game-planning to put Brady in position to do all of these wonderful things.
It is a team effort, after all, and football is a team game. There is zero doubt, however, even among his most ardent critics that Brady is the greatest of all time and that the Patriots likely would not have enjoyed their current dynastic run of success were he not under center - so that wisdom cuts both ways.
Let's just say that Brady and his teammates play complementary football, and leave it at that.
Monday, November 13, 2017
Patriots Rounding Into Form; Special Teams Literally Special In Punking Of Broncos In Denver
The Denver Broncos should have known from the very start that they were in for a long night.
Well, from almost the very start - because, you see, the Broncos' defense started the game exactly as their fans (and, sadly, New England Patriots' fans as well) have come to expect and count on, forcing the visiting Patriots into a three-and-out on their first possession and into a punting situation just a minute-and-a-half into their nationally televised showdown in Denver.
But from the point that the football left the foot of Patriots' punter Ryan Allen, the Broncos fortunes plummeted into the toilet, finding yet another creative way to victimize themselves and their fans, sinking further into the abyss of football despair by dropping their fifth straight game, a 41-16 thrashing at the hands of their arch-nemesis.
When Allen's punt reached it's nadir and spiraled down 46 yards later, Broncos' return man Isaiah McKenzie let it slip between his hands and to the turf, Patriots' gunner Jonathan Jones taking him out of the play and trailer Jacob Hollister falling cleanly on the ball to give the ball right back to Patriots' quarterback Tom Brady on the Denver 24 yard line...
...Brady finding running back Rex Burkhead twice in the pattern, the second throw covering the final 14 yards to paydirt and an early lead the Patriots would never relinquish.
New England head ball coach Bill Belichick employs an inordinate number of players on his roster who play primarily on special teams, Jones and Hollister among them, and who make the wholly ignored phase of the game a vital bridge between the offense and defense - often choosing to go against conventional wisdom in order to gain an advantage over every team he faces.
On Sunday night, that advantage came in the form of a dagger.
Leading by seven after the gift from his special teams - and after the Patriots defense did what they always do, giving up almost every inch there is between the twenties then shutting down the Broncos' offense to force them to settle for a field goal - Denver kicker Brandon McManus sent the subsequent kickoff three yards deep into the Patriots end zone...
...fifteen seconds and 103 yards later, Dion Lewis was celebrating with his teammates in the Broncos' end zone after skirting the home team's sideline and dodging weak efforts to shove him out of bounds, the second of three impact special teams plays giving the Patriots a 14-3 lead.
The third special teams standout effort came via a blocked punt four minutes into the second quarter, courtesy of running back Rex Burkhead who exploded between two Broncos blockers like he was shot out of a canon and easily got to Denver punter Riley Dixon, who fell on the ball at the Denver thirty, preventing a gaggle of Patriot rushers from picking up the ball and running it into the end zone.
As it was, the Patriots turned that gaffe into a Stephen Gostkowski field goal, essentially putting the game out of reach.
But the Patriots were far from finished putting points on the board, as tight end Dwayne Allen hauled in a tough grab for his first catch and first touchdown in New England, followed by Lewis displaying his super-human strength in dragging two Broncos into the end zone from seven yards out, culminating with fellow running back James White getting in on the fun, catching a quick out from Brady that left his mirror frozen on the turf.
Denver's offense pretty much had their way with New England's defense between the twenties in the first half, but drives of 58, 64 and 63 yards stalled short of paydirt, forcing the Broncos to settle for three McManus field goals - but quarterback Brock Osweiler led the Broncos down the field on their first possession of the second half, hitting receiver Demaryius Thomas from seven yards out to give Denver a brief spark of hope...
...though that lasted all of three-and-a-half minutes as Brady responded with a big play drive, hitting both Brandin Cooks and Rob Gronkowski with 25 yard heaters to get New England into Denver's red area, then handed the ball to Lewis three straight times to end any hope Denver had of climbing back into the game.
Brady was an ever-efficient 25 of 34 for 266 yards and three scores as his offensive line - despite missing regular right tackle Marcus Cannon - kept him upright nearly the entire game, allowing just one sack on a safety blitz that White matador'd on. In fact, the Broncos' vaunted pass rush got close just a handful of times, under pressure just six times all evening...
...and Brady, as he usually does, made the Broncos pay for generating extra pressure, completing all six throws for 89 yards and the touchdown to Allen for a perfect rating of 158.3.
Despite having just three outside-the-numbers receivers healthy, Brady targeted Cooks, Phillip Dorsett and Danny Amendola on exactly half of his throws, completing 12 of those 17 passes for 126 yards and completing 13 of 17 to his backs and tight ends for 140 yards and all three scores. Cooks led all Patriots pass catchers with six catches on 11 targets, most of them with Denver corner Chris Harris hanging all over him.
Gronkowski led the tight ends with four, first down-producing grabs while the newly-reacquired Martellus Bennett snagged three passes in playing just five snaps. Burkhead and White split the six targets that went to the backs.
Osweiler was 18 of 33 for 221 yards with the touchdown to Thomas and an interception by Patriots' safety Patrick Chung, who had his best game of the season, allowing three catches on four targets for just 14 yards. Most of the damage that Denver did on offense came via Osweiler targeting receiver Emmanuel Sanders, who caught six of eleven targets for a game-high 137 yards, all but 23 of those yards coming against Patriots' corner Malcolm Butler, who Sanders screwed into the ground repeatedly while running some nifty patterns.
Thomas' touchdown catch and a defensive holding call were the only sore spots on the resume of cornerback Stephon Gilmore, who returned to action after a three week hiatus on the shelf to essentially lock down the 6' 3", 230 pounder to just 44 yards on five catches.
Denver's ground game proved potent, particularly with C.J. Anderson toting the rock for 5.4 yards per shot, but the Broncos were forced to abandon their running game as they fell behind by three scores and went to the air.
Overall, it was a solid effort from a Patriots' team that is starting to round into form and looking every bit the contender they were expected to be after a rocky start to the season, having now won five straight and in a deadlock with the Pittsburgh Steelers for the best record in the conference.
The Patriots will remain in Colorado for the bulk of this week before heading south of the border to take on the Oakland Raiders in Mexico City this coming Sunday.
Well, from almost the very start - because, you see, the Broncos' defense started the game exactly as their fans (and, sadly, New England Patriots' fans as well) have come to expect and count on, forcing the visiting Patriots into a three-and-out on their first possession and into a punting situation just a minute-and-a-half into their nationally televised showdown in Denver.
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| Dion Lewis evades tacklers on his way to a kick return for touchdown |
But from the point that the football left the foot of Patriots' punter Ryan Allen, the Broncos fortunes plummeted into the toilet, finding yet another creative way to victimize themselves and their fans, sinking further into the abyss of football despair by dropping their fifth straight game, a 41-16 thrashing at the hands of their arch-nemesis.
When Allen's punt reached it's nadir and spiraled down 46 yards later, Broncos' return man Isaiah McKenzie let it slip between his hands and to the turf, Patriots' gunner Jonathan Jones taking him out of the play and trailer Jacob Hollister falling cleanly on the ball to give the ball right back to Patriots' quarterback Tom Brady on the Denver 24 yard line...
...Brady finding running back Rex Burkhead twice in the pattern, the second throw covering the final 14 yards to paydirt and an early lead the Patriots would never relinquish.
New England head ball coach Bill Belichick employs an inordinate number of players on his roster who play primarily on special teams, Jones and Hollister among them, and who make the wholly ignored phase of the game a vital bridge between the offense and defense - often choosing to go against conventional wisdom in order to gain an advantage over every team he faces.
On Sunday night, that advantage came in the form of a dagger.
Leading by seven after the gift from his special teams - and after the Patriots defense did what they always do, giving up almost every inch there is between the twenties then shutting down the Broncos' offense to force them to settle for a field goal - Denver kicker Brandon McManus sent the subsequent kickoff three yards deep into the Patriots end zone...
...fifteen seconds and 103 yards later, Dion Lewis was celebrating with his teammates in the Broncos' end zone after skirting the home team's sideline and dodging weak efforts to shove him out of bounds, the second of three impact special teams plays giving the Patriots a 14-3 lead.
The third special teams standout effort came via a blocked punt four minutes into the second quarter, courtesy of running back Rex Burkhead who exploded between two Broncos blockers like he was shot out of a canon and easily got to Denver punter Riley Dixon, who fell on the ball at the Denver thirty, preventing a gaggle of Patriot rushers from picking up the ball and running it into the end zone.
As it was, the Patriots turned that gaffe into a Stephen Gostkowski field goal, essentially putting the game out of reach.
But the Patriots were far from finished putting points on the board, as tight end Dwayne Allen hauled in a tough grab for his first catch and first touchdown in New England, followed by Lewis displaying his super-human strength in dragging two Broncos into the end zone from seven yards out, culminating with fellow running back James White getting in on the fun, catching a quick out from Brady that left his mirror frozen on the turf.
Denver's offense pretty much had their way with New England's defense between the twenties in the first half, but drives of 58, 64 and 63 yards stalled short of paydirt, forcing the Broncos to settle for three McManus field goals - but quarterback Brock Osweiler led the Broncos down the field on their first possession of the second half, hitting receiver Demaryius Thomas from seven yards out to give Denver a brief spark of hope...
...though that lasted all of three-and-a-half minutes as Brady responded with a big play drive, hitting both Brandin Cooks and Rob Gronkowski with 25 yard heaters to get New England into Denver's red area, then handed the ball to Lewis three straight times to end any hope Denver had of climbing back into the game.
Brady was an ever-efficient 25 of 34 for 266 yards and three scores as his offensive line - despite missing regular right tackle Marcus Cannon - kept him upright nearly the entire game, allowing just one sack on a safety blitz that White matador'd on. In fact, the Broncos' vaunted pass rush got close just a handful of times, under pressure just six times all evening...
...and Brady, as he usually does, made the Broncos pay for generating extra pressure, completing all six throws for 89 yards and the touchdown to Allen for a perfect rating of 158.3.
Despite having just three outside-the-numbers receivers healthy, Brady targeted Cooks, Phillip Dorsett and Danny Amendola on exactly half of his throws, completing 12 of those 17 passes for 126 yards and completing 13 of 17 to his backs and tight ends for 140 yards and all three scores. Cooks led all Patriots pass catchers with six catches on 11 targets, most of them with Denver corner Chris Harris hanging all over him.
Gronkowski led the tight ends with four, first down-producing grabs while the newly-reacquired Martellus Bennett snagged three passes in playing just five snaps. Burkhead and White split the six targets that went to the backs.
Osweiler was 18 of 33 for 221 yards with the touchdown to Thomas and an interception by Patriots' safety Patrick Chung, who had his best game of the season, allowing three catches on four targets for just 14 yards. Most of the damage that Denver did on offense came via Osweiler targeting receiver Emmanuel Sanders, who caught six of eleven targets for a game-high 137 yards, all but 23 of those yards coming against Patriots' corner Malcolm Butler, who Sanders screwed into the ground repeatedly while running some nifty patterns.
Thomas' touchdown catch and a defensive holding call were the only sore spots on the resume of cornerback Stephon Gilmore, who returned to action after a three week hiatus on the shelf to essentially lock down the 6' 3", 230 pounder to just 44 yards on five catches.
Denver's ground game proved potent, particularly with C.J. Anderson toting the rock for 5.4 yards per shot, but the Broncos were forced to abandon their running game as they fell behind by three scores and went to the air.
Overall, it was a solid effort from a Patriots' team that is starting to round into form and looking every bit the contender they were expected to be after a rocky start to the season, having now won five straight and in a deadlock with the Pittsburgh Steelers for the best record in the conference.
The Patriots will remain in Colorado for the bulk of this week before heading south of the border to take on the Oakland Raiders in Mexico City this coming Sunday.
Sunday, November 12, 2017
Patriots' Lack Of Outside-The-Numbers Receivers A Concern Against Broncos' "No Fly Zone"
The New England Patriots are at a distinct disadvantage going into their matchup with the Broncos in Denver on Sunday night, and until this past Thursday afternoon, it was something that they could do little about.
The Denver Broncos, as usual, sport one of the best defensive units in the National Football League, ranking fourth in the league in pass defense and are fifth against the run - and when one adds in the fact that the Patriots have traditional had a difficult time generating offense in the Mile High City, all of the signs point to a stagnation of what is a potential juggernaut.
Adding to the Patriots' woes is the fact that they have only two wide receivers that are fully healthy and just three that are going to suit up for the game, a circumstance that plays right into the strength of the Broncos' defense: their secondary.
Known as the "No-Fly Zone", Denver's secondary has given Patriots' quarterback Tom Brady a rough go in the recent past, holding the greatest of all time to 177 passing yards in their last encounter, a hard-fought 16-3 Patriots victory last season - and that was with Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan and Malcolm Mitchell in the lineup, three cats that won't be in uniform on Sunday night.
What they do have, however, may be enough to keep the Broncos' secondary busy, but in a different way.
That is mainly because one pass catcher who did miss that last contest and that will be dressed and ready for this year's battle is tight end Rob Gronkowski, who can change the complexion of a game single-handedly - and when combined with recently reacquired tight end Martellus Bennett, they give the Patriots a way to put stress on Denver's safeties and linebackers in manner that they weren't able to last season.
Bennett actually played in that game in Denver, but like everyone else not named Edelman, he struggled to get open, catching just two balls for 35 yards - though his real impact came in the running game, as his powerful pulling and blocking helped running back Dion Lewis pick up 5.3 yards per carry as the sole difference maker on the stat sheet.
That win actually seems like a precursor to what is going on with the Patriots' offense in the last four games of this season, red zone struggles leading to leaving points on the field, New England settling for field goals instead of scoring touchdowns - but things should be a little different this time around, especially if Bennett, who made the trip to Denver with the team and is a game-time decision, suits up and plays.
How effective he would be remains to be seen, but there should be a sense of optimism with Patriots' fans in regard to his readiness to play, as he is coming off three-weeks of R&R and has likely retained the Patriots' offensive playbook with intimate clarity - but if he doesn't play, New England is up against it against the Broncos' pass defense, as they will likely load up the pass rush and come after Brady with gusto.
And why not? The only healthy receivers on the depth chart are speedy vertical targets in Brandin Cooks and the seldom targeted Phillip Dorsett, and slot man Danny Amendola is going to try and play through a bum knee. Gronkowski is the only tight end worth note, and the lack of outside-the-numbers targets for New England could help the Broncos keep him penned up with linebacker-safety double teams...
...while the potent Denver pass rush could be compounded by rogue blitzers that could negate any potential contribution from the Patriots' backs, forcing them to remain in the pocket to help protect Brady.
Either way, there is no easy solution to what the Broncos are on defense, which is built in such a way that they can stop the run (second in the NFL by allowing just 3.4 yards per carry) and force the ball to the air, and with New England being so short outside of the numbers, that could make for a long evening - and don't be fooled by the fact that they are ranked 25th in the league in scoring defense, as their ranking has fallen precipitously by their injury-driven collapse in the past two games.
They gave up 29 points to a potent Chiefs offense two weeks ago and the Eagles offensive juggernaut hung a fifty-burger on them last week, but those teams are far healthier on offense than the Patriots are now, plus New England's well-known struggles in the red zone may very well come into play. The only solution is for New England to grind it out with the run, move the chains and take well-timed shots downfield.
The Patriots' defense and special teams play a major role in this scenario, as the way to beat any team in the National Football League is to make it as difficult as possible for the opposing offense to reach paydirt.
In the last four games, punter Ryan Allen, kicker Stephen Gostkowski and the New England coverage teams have managed to flip field position on their opponents with regularity, ranking second in the NFL in opponent's starting position, which forces the opposing offense to have to go further to get into scoring position - which is a good thing, since the defense has been giving up nearly forty yards per drive.
Of course, the Broncos' offense has been a middle-of-the-pack entity all season, but have taken a nose dive in the past four games - all four of them recorded as losses - failing to break the 200 passing yards plateau and being held short of seventy yards rushing in three of those games, and averaging a minute 13 points per game...
...which is almost exactly what the Patriots' defense has given up in that time span (12.5), though Denver can take solace in the fact that New England remains last in the league in total yardage surrendered, and that Defensive coordinator Matt Patricia has been holding his secondary together with duct tape and prayers.
They are dead last in total defense, in passing yards yielded and in yards per carry in the running game - which is mitigated to a large degree by the fact that New England stiffens the deeper the opponent gets into their territory, ranking fifth in the league in red zone defense - a stat line that justifies their bend-but-don't-break philosophy.
So what does all of this mean?
Absolutely nothing, as when these two teams get together it always seems to turn into a barn-burner, an instant classic with plenty of defense and usually the team that has the football last tends to win the game - but if the Patriots can somehow find a way to run the ball on offense and stop the run on defense, as tall task either way, they could cruise to an easy win...
...but if not, they could struggle mightily and turn a simple sweep and clear of a downward-trending Broncos team into a street fight that comes down to the last possession.
The Denver Broncos, as usual, sport one of the best defensive units in the National Football League, ranking fourth in the league in pass defense and are fifth against the run - and when one adds in the fact that the Patriots have traditional had a difficult time generating offense in the Mile High City, all of the signs point to a stagnation of what is a potential juggernaut.
Adding to the Patriots' woes is the fact that they have only two wide receivers that are fully healthy and just three that are going to suit up for the game, a circumstance that plays right into the strength of the Broncos' defense: their secondary.
Known as the "No-Fly Zone", Denver's secondary has given Patriots' quarterback Tom Brady a rough go in the recent past, holding the greatest of all time to 177 passing yards in their last encounter, a hard-fought 16-3 Patriots victory last season - and that was with Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan and Malcolm Mitchell in the lineup, three cats that won't be in uniform on Sunday night.
What they do have, however, may be enough to keep the Broncos' secondary busy, but in a different way.
That is mainly because one pass catcher who did miss that last contest and that will be dressed and ready for this year's battle is tight end Rob Gronkowski, who can change the complexion of a game single-handedly - and when combined with recently reacquired tight end Martellus Bennett, they give the Patriots a way to put stress on Denver's safeties and linebackers in manner that they weren't able to last season.
Bennett actually played in that game in Denver, but like everyone else not named Edelman, he struggled to get open, catching just two balls for 35 yards - though his real impact came in the running game, as his powerful pulling and blocking helped running back Dion Lewis pick up 5.3 yards per carry as the sole difference maker on the stat sheet.
That win actually seems like a precursor to what is going on with the Patriots' offense in the last four games of this season, red zone struggles leading to leaving points on the field, New England settling for field goals instead of scoring touchdowns - but things should be a little different this time around, especially if Bennett, who made the trip to Denver with the team and is a game-time decision, suits up and plays.
How effective he would be remains to be seen, but there should be a sense of optimism with Patriots' fans in regard to his readiness to play, as he is coming off three-weeks of R&R and has likely retained the Patriots' offensive playbook with intimate clarity - but if he doesn't play, New England is up against it against the Broncos' pass defense, as they will likely load up the pass rush and come after Brady with gusto.
And why not? The only healthy receivers on the depth chart are speedy vertical targets in Brandin Cooks and the seldom targeted Phillip Dorsett, and slot man Danny Amendola is going to try and play through a bum knee. Gronkowski is the only tight end worth note, and the lack of outside-the-numbers targets for New England could help the Broncos keep him penned up with linebacker-safety double teams...
...while the potent Denver pass rush could be compounded by rogue blitzers that could negate any potential contribution from the Patriots' backs, forcing them to remain in the pocket to help protect Brady.
Either way, there is no easy solution to what the Broncos are on defense, which is built in such a way that they can stop the run (second in the NFL by allowing just 3.4 yards per carry) and force the ball to the air, and with New England being so short outside of the numbers, that could make for a long evening - and don't be fooled by the fact that they are ranked 25th in the league in scoring defense, as their ranking has fallen precipitously by their injury-driven collapse in the past two games.
They gave up 29 points to a potent Chiefs offense two weeks ago and the Eagles offensive juggernaut hung a fifty-burger on them last week, but those teams are far healthier on offense than the Patriots are now, plus New England's well-known struggles in the red zone may very well come into play. The only solution is for New England to grind it out with the run, move the chains and take well-timed shots downfield.
The Patriots' defense and special teams play a major role in this scenario, as the way to beat any team in the National Football League is to make it as difficult as possible for the opposing offense to reach paydirt.
In the last four games, punter Ryan Allen, kicker Stephen Gostkowski and the New England coverage teams have managed to flip field position on their opponents with regularity, ranking second in the NFL in opponent's starting position, which forces the opposing offense to have to go further to get into scoring position - which is a good thing, since the defense has been giving up nearly forty yards per drive.
Of course, the Broncos' offense has been a middle-of-the-pack entity all season, but have taken a nose dive in the past four games - all four of them recorded as losses - failing to break the 200 passing yards plateau and being held short of seventy yards rushing in three of those games, and averaging a minute 13 points per game...
...which is almost exactly what the Patriots' defense has given up in that time span (12.5), though Denver can take solace in the fact that New England remains last in the league in total yardage surrendered, and that Defensive coordinator Matt Patricia has been holding his secondary together with duct tape and prayers.
They are dead last in total defense, in passing yards yielded and in yards per carry in the running game - which is mitigated to a large degree by the fact that New England stiffens the deeper the opponent gets into their territory, ranking fifth in the league in red zone defense - a stat line that justifies their bend-but-don't-break philosophy.
So what does all of this mean?
Absolutely nothing, as when these two teams get together it always seems to turn into a barn-burner, an instant classic with plenty of defense and usually the team that has the football last tends to win the game - but if the Patriots can somehow find a way to run the ball on offense and stop the run on defense, as tall task either way, they could cruise to an easy win...
...but if not, they could struggle mightily and turn a simple sweep and clear of a downward-trending Broncos team into a street fight that comes down to the last possession.
Thursday, November 9, 2017
New England Patriots Midseason Forum - Part 4: Tight End Stable Gets Major Boost By Re-Signing The "Black Unicorn"
"I could run all day. I'm kind of like a black unicorn out there. It's amazing to watch. You go out there and see a big black guy running down the field, it's usually me." - Martellus Bennett
One would think that some team - any team - would have claimed tight end Martellus Bennett off waivers from the Green Bay Packers just to keep his former employer, the New England Patriots, from doing so.
But no one did except those crafty Patriots, who pulled a LeGarrett Blount-style mid-season dumpster dive to pick up a legitimate tried and true weapon that won't take much time getting up to speed since Bennett is only nine months removed from being an integral part of a Patriots' offense that won a World Championship in February.
The self-proclaimed "Black Unicorn" played in all sixteen regular season games for New England in 2016, toughing out shoulder, knee and ankle injuries to put together the third-best statistical season of his career, his 55 catches for 701 yards and seven touchdowns eclipsed only by his first two years in Chicago, where he earned Pro Bowl honors in 2014.
In addition, Bennett was a force in the post-season, catching five balls in the AFC Championship Game against Pittsburgh, then five more in the Super Bowl against the Atlanta Falcons, as well as drawing a pass interference call in the end zone against the Falcons' De'Vondre Campbell to set up James White's two yard touchdown run that sealed the title.
He was dismissed by the Packers for failing to advise the team of a shoulder injury, and while that is the official story, it could be speculated that Bennett wore out his welcome with his infamous rants, especially recent ones in which he told the press that he was considering retirement at the end of the season.
Whatever the case, Bennett's return to Foxborough couldn't have come at more fortuitous juncture, as the Patriots have more pass catchers on the shelf than they do on the field.
In addition to losing top receiver Julian Edelman for the season, both Chris Hogan and Danny Amendola are battling injuries, with Hogan expected to be on the shelf for a couple of weeks - that leaves just Brandin Cooks and Phillip Dorsett - two players that weren't on the roster last season - as the only healthy options among wide receivers for quarterback Tom Brady to target.
The good news is that Bennett joins All-World tight end Rob Gronkowski and a backfield full of versatile playmakers to form what has become the most unique collection of weapons in the league.
The best part to the waiver claim is that the Patriots now control the final two years left on his Packers' contract, with the only stipulation being a $2 million roster bonus due at the start of the 2018 league year, which is essentially a team option. The only guarantees on his contract were a series of prorated signing bonus payments totaling $6.3 million, $4.2 million of which the Packers had to eat as a dead money hit.
The irony here is, of course, that the Patriots had reportedly offered Bennett a contract extension upon acquiring him from the Bears last season, similar to the one that the Patriots absorb in picking up the Packers' contract, his cap hit for 2018 - one that includes the aforementioned roster bonus - is $6.45 million and then $6.5 million in 2019.
Those are affordable numbers, as is the remainder of his 2017 salary of just $724k, not only for the insurance that the durable Bennett provides at the position, but also for the serious 1-2 punch that New England can unleash upon their foes in tandem with Gronkowski.
How serious? Well, when you consider that in the five games that the two played together last season in which Gronkowski wasn't under any snap count restrictions, they combined for 47 catches for 786 yards and six touchdowns - that averages out to nine receptions for 157 yards and one score per game...
...and if you spread that over a full season, you get a completely ridiculous stat line of 150 receptions for 2,512 yards and 19 touchdowns.
It's not tangible to expect that kind of production from the two tight end set - even though the Gronkowski-Hernandez tandem gave the team a similar stat line in 2012 - but Bennett's range and blocking prowess is a part of the total package that goes unnoticed by the casual fan and adds to the intrigue.
Both Gronkowski and Bennett - as well as free-agent pickup Dwayne Allen - are devastating blockers in the running game and are able on the edge in pass protection, adding a layer of versatility that is rare in professional football, and along with their well-documented skill in the pattern makes them almost a requirement as the Patriots will certainly turn to more 12 personnel (one back, two tight ends) looks...
...an alignment that will now require defenses to dedicate safeties and linebackers to coverage which, in theory, will lighten the box against the running game and force single high safety formations that will strap the coverage on the vertical game.
Bennett's presence will certainly cut into Allen's snap count (not to mention send rookie Jacob Hollister to the practice squad), but will also allow him to operate in the background, which may jump start his production in the passing game and also make Jumbo sets (two backs and three tight ends) so versatile that it would be nearly impossible to stop in short yardage and in the red zone, as defenses would have to keep the box light in the event Gronkowski and/or Bennett peel off the edge and into the pattern.
Make no mistake, if Bennett is motivated and reasonably healthy, the Patriots' waiver claim on him could be the piece to the puzzle that gets the offensive juggernaut rolling.
One would think that some team - any team - would have claimed tight end Martellus Bennett off waivers from the Green Bay Packers just to keep his former employer, the New England Patriots, from doing so.
But no one did except those crafty Patriots, who pulled a LeGarrett Blount-style mid-season dumpster dive to pick up a legitimate tried and true weapon that won't take much time getting up to speed since Bennett is only nine months removed from being an integral part of a Patriots' offense that won a World Championship in February.
The self-proclaimed "Black Unicorn" played in all sixteen regular season games for New England in 2016, toughing out shoulder, knee and ankle injuries to put together the third-best statistical season of his career, his 55 catches for 701 yards and seven touchdowns eclipsed only by his first two years in Chicago, where he earned Pro Bowl honors in 2014.
In addition, Bennett was a force in the post-season, catching five balls in the AFC Championship Game against Pittsburgh, then five more in the Super Bowl against the Atlanta Falcons, as well as drawing a pass interference call in the end zone against the Falcons' De'Vondre Campbell to set up James White's two yard touchdown run that sealed the title.
He was dismissed by the Packers for failing to advise the team of a shoulder injury, and while that is the official story, it could be speculated that Bennett wore out his welcome with his infamous rants, especially recent ones in which he told the press that he was considering retirement at the end of the season.
Whatever the case, Bennett's return to Foxborough couldn't have come at more fortuitous juncture, as the Patriots have more pass catchers on the shelf than they do on the field.
In addition to losing top receiver Julian Edelman for the season, both Chris Hogan and Danny Amendola are battling injuries, with Hogan expected to be on the shelf for a couple of weeks - that leaves just Brandin Cooks and Phillip Dorsett - two players that weren't on the roster last season - as the only healthy options among wide receivers for quarterback Tom Brady to target.
The good news is that Bennett joins All-World tight end Rob Gronkowski and a backfield full of versatile playmakers to form what has become the most unique collection of weapons in the league.
The best part to the waiver claim is that the Patriots now control the final two years left on his Packers' contract, with the only stipulation being a $2 million roster bonus due at the start of the 2018 league year, which is essentially a team option. The only guarantees on his contract were a series of prorated signing bonus payments totaling $6.3 million, $4.2 million of which the Packers had to eat as a dead money hit.
The irony here is, of course, that the Patriots had reportedly offered Bennett a contract extension upon acquiring him from the Bears last season, similar to the one that the Patriots absorb in picking up the Packers' contract, his cap hit for 2018 - one that includes the aforementioned roster bonus - is $6.45 million and then $6.5 million in 2019.
Those are affordable numbers, as is the remainder of his 2017 salary of just $724k, not only for the insurance that the durable Bennett provides at the position, but also for the serious 1-2 punch that New England can unleash upon their foes in tandem with Gronkowski.
How serious? Well, when you consider that in the five games that the two played together last season in which Gronkowski wasn't under any snap count restrictions, they combined for 47 catches for 786 yards and six touchdowns - that averages out to nine receptions for 157 yards and one score per game...
...and if you spread that over a full season, you get a completely ridiculous stat line of 150 receptions for 2,512 yards and 19 touchdowns.
It's not tangible to expect that kind of production from the two tight end set - even though the Gronkowski-Hernandez tandem gave the team a similar stat line in 2012 - but Bennett's range and blocking prowess is a part of the total package that goes unnoticed by the casual fan and adds to the intrigue.
Both Gronkowski and Bennett - as well as free-agent pickup Dwayne Allen - are devastating blockers in the running game and are able on the edge in pass protection, adding a layer of versatility that is rare in professional football, and along with their well-documented skill in the pattern makes them almost a requirement as the Patriots will certainly turn to more 12 personnel (one back, two tight ends) looks...
...an alignment that will now require defenses to dedicate safeties and linebackers to coverage which, in theory, will lighten the box against the running game and force single high safety formations that will strap the coverage on the vertical game.
Bennett's presence will certainly cut into Allen's snap count (not to mention send rookie Jacob Hollister to the practice squad), but will also allow him to operate in the background, which may jump start his production in the passing game and also make Jumbo sets (two backs and three tight ends) so versatile that it would be nearly impossible to stop in short yardage and in the red zone, as defenses would have to keep the box light in the event Gronkowski and/or Bennett peel off the edge and into the pattern.
Make no mistake, if Bennett is motivated and reasonably healthy, the Patriots' waiver claim on him could be the piece to the puzzle that gets the offensive juggernaut rolling.
Sunday, November 5, 2017
New England Patriots Midseason Forum - Part 2: Passing Game Revisiting 2015, But Has The Tools To Overcome Issues
When is the last time you saw a running back leading the New England Patriots offense in receptions?
The answer to that is 1977, when fullback Sam Cunningham caught 42 balls out of the backfield on a 9-5 team that missed the playoffs, barely eclipsing wide receiver Darryl Stingley for the team lead - and it makes sense, given that the play calling was run heavy by design, as it was a year before the NFL made rule changes that benefited the passing game to the point that it changed the face of the league.
Cunningham also eclipsed the thousand-yard plateau on the ground. But the thing is, back then running backs were expected to be heavily involved in the passing game, as it was far easier for a back to run a delayed pattern out of the backfield than it was for wide receivers and even tight ends to fight their way through cornerbacks and linebackers who could lay heavy contact on them without much notice from the referees.
Now, one could argue that it is far easier for receivers to break off the line and into their patterns, as corners, linebackers and safeties draw flags from the officials if they look at the receiver in the wrong tone past five yards down the field - not to mention that we see offensive pass interference calls at an alarming rate, congruent to those called on defenders.
For example, it seems that a game doesn't become official until tight end Rob Gronkowski is called for pass interference, and pick plays that used to be called rub routes before the wimpification of the National Football League often result in big plays being nullified.
In 1977, it was a fist fight between a receiver and a cornerback to gain separation, while today it's a dance contest and God help you if you touch a player on the opposing team more than five yards down the field - so there is significant risk in targeting receivers down the field...
...but it seems particularly risky for Patriots' receivers because when they lost Julian Edelman to a knee injury, they lost a throwback type player who wasn't afraid to mix it up and gained separation by being tougher than the defender.
That is one of the reasons for the recent trend in the league to bring draft and develop bigger receivers who can be more physical with cornerbacks, but even then when a ball falls incomplete, more often than not we will see a receiver do a fancy pirouette with his arms extended and palms facing towards the sky, barking at the officials because the defender make contact with him, no matter how significant the contact is.
The truth is the rules in the NFL, well-meaning as they are in trying to protect players from head injury while attempting to make the game faster and more exciting for the fans, have actually made the game slower and, honestly, more frustrating to watch - and it has gotten to the point that we will look to the bottom of our TV screens to make sure a yellow box with the word "flag" hasn't appeared to impact the play.
But while the rules have turned each passing play into an episode of Dancing With The Stars, many teams have mitigated that effect by turning to their running backs to compensate.
The Patriots have a deeper problem than a perceived lack of toughness, however.
Edelman is considered one of the toughest covers in the league, and his absence only serves to confirm that, as the Patriots' offense has struggled more and more as the season wears on and opposing defensive coordinators are seeing more and more film on what the Patriots have left in their outside arsenal.
Chris Hogan and Danny Amendola define toughness in their playing style, yet they lack the quick twitch / explosiveness combination to immediately separate in their routes the way Edelman does. Brandin Cooks and Phillip Dorsett have speed to burn, and play their best ball outside the numbers where their speed can compensate for their lack of physicality...
...while tight end Rob Gronkowski suffers from constant double teams and sometimes labors to get open while being mugged downfield - all of this assuming Brady has enough time to go through his progressions.
So what they have is not as important as what they don't have, which is Edelman's ability to gain immediate separation in his routes and provide quarterback Tom Brady the option to target Edelman on the "bang-bang" play that enabled Brady to get rid of the ball more quickly than anyone else in the league - and even more crucial than that is that the defense can concentrate more on the intermediate zone and make Brady hold the ball longer.
The same phenomenon occurred midway through 2015 when Edelman was lost for seven weeks with a broken bone in his foot. In those games, which covered the final seven of the regular season, the passing yards dipped by 90 yards per game and Brady took a nasty beating, but what really sent the offense into a tailspin from which they never recovered, was the loss of LeGarrette Blount with four games left to play.
Without the running game to have to defend, New England's opponents were able to concentrate solely on defending the passing game, which produced less than 200 yards per game. The Patriots were resilient enough to salvage two wins in that span, but with no running game in the playoffs, their defense carried them to the AFC Championship game and nearly to the Super Bowl.
The thing that prevented them from going to the Super Bowl? A lack of trust in the offense that caused curious play calling, going for it on fourth down deep in Denver Broncos' territory instead of kicking field goals late in the game, as Belichick admitted afterwards that he was trying to take the pressure off of his offense by going all four downs, not trusting that they had the gumption or the time to get down in the red area again to score any more points.
But in those games, Belichick and Brady didn't have a Cooks or a Hogan or a Lewis, nor a running game - all they had was a hobbled Amendola and an equally limited Gronkowski along with a recently activated Edelman and some street-signings, and ended up losing by two points.
It was during this stretch that Brady started targeting White, who has since turned into a major weapon in the passing game, last season breaking Kevin Faulk's team record for receptions and turned in a performance for the ages in the Super Bowl...
...a trend that has continued to flourish in 2017 as White is on pace for unprecedented numbers as the safety valve that Brady is missing in Edelman, with his target and reception numbers nearing what Edelman's have been, while the rest of the group are all languishing in mediocrity compared to their past production.
This is not to say that the effort is not there, just that the way the receiving corps is constructed limits their effectiveness, particularly in the red zone, when their skill sets married with coordinator Josh McDaniels' curious non-usage of what has to be one of the best running back situations in the league has led to meager point outputs in the last four games.
So the Patriots are more or less revisiting the 2015 season on offense, but with better personnel to work through losing Edelman with, and a great set of running backs that could take a lot of the heat off of Brady and the receivers if Belichick and McDaniels would just use them in the running game, which has been limited to just 39% of the offensive snaps this season.
Sadly, they haven't learned that lesson from two years ago, but Belichick is taking field goals when he has the chance to do so, and in doing so has been able to scratch out four consecutive wins - ugly wins, but victories nevertheless.
They have the tools and the talent to overcome their lack of quick-twitch ability in the pattern, and have four running backs who are versatile enough to take over some of Edelman's function, particularly White and Lewis, though a healthy Rex Burkhead may be they key to getting this passing game back on track, as he helps form an imposing trio of passing backs that could well start forcing defense to defend the entire field.
That would open up the intermediate zones enough to help Cooks, Amendola and Dorsett more of a factor down the field and also open up the seam for Gronkowski...
The answer to that is 1977, when fullback Sam Cunningham caught 42 balls out of the backfield on a 9-5 team that missed the playoffs, barely eclipsing wide receiver Darryl Stingley for the team lead - and it makes sense, given that the play calling was run heavy by design, as it was a year before the NFL made rule changes that benefited the passing game to the point that it changed the face of the league.
Cunningham also eclipsed the thousand-yard plateau on the ground. But the thing is, back then running backs were expected to be heavily involved in the passing game, as it was far easier for a back to run a delayed pattern out of the backfield than it was for wide receivers and even tight ends to fight their way through cornerbacks and linebackers who could lay heavy contact on them without much notice from the referees.
Now, one could argue that it is far easier for receivers to break off the line and into their patterns, as corners, linebackers and safeties draw flags from the officials if they look at the receiver in the wrong tone past five yards down the field - not to mention that we see offensive pass interference calls at an alarming rate, congruent to those called on defenders.
For example, it seems that a game doesn't become official until tight end Rob Gronkowski is called for pass interference, and pick plays that used to be called rub routes before the wimpification of the National Football League often result in big plays being nullified.
In 1977, it was a fist fight between a receiver and a cornerback to gain separation, while today it's a dance contest and God help you if you touch a player on the opposing team more than five yards down the field - so there is significant risk in targeting receivers down the field...
...but it seems particularly risky for Patriots' receivers because when they lost Julian Edelman to a knee injury, they lost a throwback type player who wasn't afraid to mix it up and gained separation by being tougher than the defender.
That is one of the reasons for the recent trend in the league to bring draft and develop bigger receivers who can be more physical with cornerbacks, but even then when a ball falls incomplete, more often than not we will see a receiver do a fancy pirouette with his arms extended and palms facing towards the sky, barking at the officials because the defender make contact with him, no matter how significant the contact is.
The truth is the rules in the NFL, well-meaning as they are in trying to protect players from head injury while attempting to make the game faster and more exciting for the fans, have actually made the game slower and, honestly, more frustrating to watch - and it has gotten to the point that we will look to the bottom of our TV screens to make sure a yellow box with the word "flag" hasn't appeared to impact the play.
But while the rules have turned each passing play into an episode of Dancing With The Stars, many teams have mitigated that effect by turning to their running backs to compensate.
The Patriots have a deeper problem than a perceived lack of toughness, however.
Edelman is considered one of the toughest covers in the league, and his absence only serves to confirm that, as the Patriots' offense has struggled more and more as the season wears on and opposing defensive coordinators are seeing more and more film on what the Patriots have left in their outside arsenal.
Chris Hogan and Danny Amendola define toughness in their playing style, yet they lack the quick twitch / explosiveness combination to immediately separate in their routes the way Edelman does. Brandin Cooks and Phillip Dorsett have speed to burn, and play their best ball outside the numbers where their speed can compensate for their lack of physicality...
...while tight end Rob Gronkowski suffers from constant double teams and sometimes labors to get open while being mugged downfield - all of this assuming Brady has enough time to go through his progressions.
So what they have is not as important as what they don't have, which is Edelman's ability to gain immediate separation in his routes and provide quarterback Tom Brady the option to target Edelman on the "bang-bang" play that enabled Brady to get rid of the ball more quickly than anyone else in the league - and even more crucial than that is that the defense can concentrate more on the intermediate zone and make Brady hold the ball longer.
The same phenomenon occurred midway through 2015 when Edelman was lost for seven weeks with a broken bone in his foot. In those games, which covered the final seven of the regular season, the passing yards dipped by 90 yards per game and Brady took a nasty beating, but what really sent the offense into a tailspin from which they never recovered, was the loss of LeGarrette Blount with four games left to play.
Without the running game to have to defend, New England's opponents were able to concentrate solely on defending the passing game, which produced less than 200 yards per game. The Patriots were resilient enough to salvage two wins in that span, but with no running game in the playoffs, their defense carried them to the AFC Championship game and nearly to the Super Bowl.
The thing that prevented them from going to the Super Bowl? A lack of trust in the offense that caused curious play calling, going for it on fourth down deep in Denver Broncos' territory instead of kicking field goals late in the game, as Belichick admitted afterwards that he was trying to take the pressure off of his offense by going all four downs, not trusting that they had the gumption or the time to get down in the red area again to score any more points.
But in those games, Belichick and Brady didn't have a Cooks or a Hogan or a Lewis, nor a running game - all they had was a hobbled Amendola and an equally limited Gronkowski along with a recently activated Edelman and some street-signings, and ended up losing by two points.
It was during this stretch that Brady started targeting White, who has since turned into a major weapon in the passing game, last season breaking Kevin Faulk's team record for receptions and turned in a performance for the ages in the Super Bowl...
...a trend that has continued to flourish in 2017 as White is on pace for unprecedented numbers as the safety valve that Brady is missing in Edelman, with his target and reception numbers nearing what Edelman's have been, while the rest of the group are all languishing in mediocrity compared to their past production.
This is not to say that the effort is not there, just that the way the receiving corps is constructed limits their effectiveness, particularly in the red zone, when their skill sets married with coordinator Josh McDaniels' curious non-usage of what has to be one of the best running back situations in the league has led to meager point outputs in the last four games.
So the Patriots are more or less revisiting the 2015 season on offense, but with better personnel to work through losing Edelman with, and a great set of running backs that could take a lot of the heat off of Brady and the receivers if Belichick and McDaniels would just use them in the running game, which has been limited to just 39% of the offensive snaps this season.
Sadly, they haven't learned that lesson from two years ago, but Belichick is taking field goals when he has the chance to do so, and in doing so has been able to scratch out four consecutive wins - ugly wins, but victories nevertheless.
They have the tools and the talent to overcome their lack of quick-twitch ability in the pattern, and have four running backs who are versatile enough to take over some of Edelman's function, particularly White and Lewis, though a healthy Rex Burkhead may be they key to getting this passing game back on track, as he helps form an imposing trio of passing backs that could well start forcing defense to defend the entire field.
That would open up the intermediate zones enough to help Cooks, Amendola and Dorsett more of a factor down the field and also open up the seam for Gronkowski...
Tuesday, August 29, 2017
Replacing Edelman: Next Man Up Should Read "Next Men Up"...
When the New England Patriots signed unrestricted free agent Danny Amendola away from the then-St. Louis Rams, the idea was to replace an increasingly garrulous Wes Welker, though that spot in the offense was instead overtaken by Julian Edelman.
Edelman, a former 2009 seventh-round draft pick who had played quarterback for Kent State, had been on the upswing in the season leading up to Welker's departure - and as the story goes, and as is caught on mic'd up video after Edelman scored on a weaving punt return, prompting Patriots' head ball coach Bill Belichick to ask Welker if he had ever heard of a baseball player named Wally Pipp.
Belichick ambled up to Welker after the score and when he asked Welker about Pipp, he shook his head and replied that he didn't.
It is important to note that Welker wasn't playing that day because he told the trainers that he didn't feel well, yet he was all over the sidelines, chatting it up with teammates during a contest with the Philadelphia Eagles, and when Belichick caught up with him, he was obviously feeling a lot better.
"Wally Pipp played first base before Lou Gehrig" Belichick grinned without recounting the fact that Pipp went to team trainers for a couple of aspirin for a headache, and asked to be left out of the New York Yankees' lineup one afternoon, and the trainer responded for him to go ahead and take the day off and "let's give that kid Gehrig a shot today.". then Yankees manager Miller Huggins inserted Gehrig into the lineup and the rest, as they say is history.
Pipp was waived after that season, but Welker remained on the Patriots as an elite slot receiver for another three seasons, but what Belichick said to him on the sidelines began a volatile and contentious relationship between he and Welker.
"That might be a punt return story" Belichick continued with Welker on the sidelines after Edelman's return for the touchdown in reference to the Pipp/Gehrig tale, to which Welker replied, "Hey he can have it, man."
Belichick shook his head sadly then bellowed sarcastically, "Way to compete, way to compete."
So when Welker's contract came up for renewal, Belichick was never going to allow that to happen as he had Amendola in town on the night before the start of free agency, poised to take a physical and sign a contract once 4:00pm rolled around.
The moral to the story? Availability, dependability and effort are everything to Belichick, so when the start of the 2013 season started for the Patriots in Buffalo and Amendola suffered a complete tear of his adductor muscle just minutes into the game, Edelman took his place and the rest, as they say (again), is history.
The tables have turned in 2017, with Edelman suffering a complete tear of his ACL, while Amendola is completely healthy for the first time in four seasons in Foxborough.
Amendola's extensive injury history is actually more a matter of the way he has performed his job than anything else, which was with reckless abandon and having little regard for his own safety - but Amendola has mellowed with age and experience and as a result of the adductor tear, which lingered for three years as he had surgery to repair the tear and afterwards he and team had to manage recovery time with part-time action.
But if Amendola is completely healthy and if he's learned to play the game in a more measured and thoughtful way, would he be able to replace Edelman the way he was originally signed to replace Wally Pipp - er, um, Wes Welker?
To answer that question righteously, we need to explore Amendola's medical history.
In 2011, which was his third season in the league, Amendola tore his triceps in the season opener and was lost for the entire season. and then in 2012 he dislocated his clavicle, which nearly killed him as the bone went inward instead of outward, narrowly avoiding his aorta - and then came the groin tear in the 2013 season opener with the Patriots.
As most of his injury history suggests issues with his muscles tearing, it would make sense that part of managing Amendola and preserving his health lies in the training staff keeping his muscles loose and with extended stretching before any competitive activity - and particularly at the start of a season - because when healthy and playing, Amendola is just as capable as Edelman of being the go-to guy when the Patriots really need a play.
And in that respect, Amendola is as clutch as they come - and especially when the moment is biggest and lights are the brightest.
The most recent example of this came last season, when Amendola caught 23 balls for 243 yards (10.6 yards per catch) which, if taken at face value doesn't seem like much, but when you consider that of his 23 catches, nine went for a first down and four went for a touchdown, that presents the fact that 57% of the time that Amendola caught a ball, it either moved the chains or put points on the board...
...but in the playoffs, and in particularly the Super Bowl, when Amendola caught eight balls for 78 yards, a touchdown, the game-tying two point conversion and three first downs - one of those on a critical fourth down conversion on the Patriots' first touchdown drive - it becomes clear that Amendola and Edelman are cut from the same cloth.
The fact that the Patriots use Amendola mostly in have-to-have-it situations speaks volumes as to his dependability and the chemistry he has with quarterback Tom Brady - and with that said and being undeniable, how exactly does Amendola fit into the equation for buffering the loss of Edelman's production?
With the amount of talent on the pass catching depth charts in New England, he certainly will not have to do it alone, but it goes without saying that Brady and the coaching staff trust Amendola implicitly - but as they proved last season, they also trust Chris Hogan, Malcolm Mitchell and Rob Gronkowski, and now have former New Orleans speedster Brandin Cooks in the fold.
A very impressive list, indeed, so it's not beyond the realm of imagination that Amendola will continue his role as a late-down specialist and perhaps see an uptick in his overall production which could rival his 2015 season when he hauled in 65 balls - almost triple what he caught in 2016.
But as mentioned before, the burden for replacing Edelman's production doesn't lie solely with Amendola and, truthfully, the players that could truly take on a lot of the burden of filling Edelman's shoes in 2017 are running backs James White and Dion Lewis.
Very quietly and certainly under the radar, White put together the best receiving year for a Patriots' back in the history of the franchise, catching 60 balls - two more than Kevin Faulk did in 2008 and one more than Shane Vereen in 2014 - for 551 yards and five scores, then added 18 receptions for 137 yards and two more touchdowns, giving him 78 receptions for nearly 700 yards and seven scores...
...while Lewis looks to be his old self again like he was in 2015 before tearing his ACL. That season he caught an astounding 36 balls in seven games for 388 yards and two touchdowns - which would have averaged out to 82 balls for 900 yards.
Of course, this is all speculation. Perhaps the offense falls apart like it did at the end of 2015 when the Patriots entered the post-season with a still-gimpy trio of Edelman, Amendola and Gronkowski and with no running game to speak of and Brady takes a retirement-inducing flogging from opposing defenses - or maybe everyone stays healthy and the Patriots become a 2007-esque juggernaut that issues the beatings to the defenses.
If the latter occurs, the players on the roster won't have to do do much more than they have already proven they can do to reach that level, as the graph above will attest. In 2007, Brady competed 403 passes for 4,731 yards and an NFL record 50 touchdowns.
So as a team, the Patriots should be able to make up for Edelman's lost production without batting an eye otherwise.
All they have to do, is do their job.
Edelman, a former 2009 seventh-round draft pick who had played quarterback for Kent State, had been on the upswing in the season leading up to Welker's departure - and as the story goes, and as is caught on mic'd up video after Edelman scored on a weaving punt return, prompting Patriots' head ball coach Bill Belichick to ask Welker if he had ever heard of a baseball player named Wally Pipp.
Belichick ambled up to Welker after the score and when he asked Welker about Pipp, he shook his head and replied that he didn't.
It is important to note that Welker wasn't playing that day because he told the trainers that he didn't feel well, yet he was all over the sidelines, chatting it up with teammates during a contest with the Philadelphia Eagles, and when Belichick caught up with him, he was obviously feeling a lot better.
"Wally Pipp played first base before Lou Gehrig" Belichick grinned without recounting the fact that Pipp went to team trainers for a couple of aspirin for a headache, and asked to be left out of the New York Yankees' lineup one afternoon, and the trainer responded for him to go ahead and take the day off and "let's give that kid Gehrig a shot today.". then Yankees manager Miller Huggins inserted Gehrig into the lineup and the rest, as they say is history.
Pipp was waived after that season, but Welker remained on the Patriots as an elite slot receiver for another three seasons, but what Belichick said to him on the sidelines began a volatile and contentious relationship between he and Welker.
"That might be a punt return story" Belichick continued with Welker on the sidelines after Edelman's return for the touchdown in reference to the Pipp/Gehrig tale, to which Welker replied, "Hey he can have it, man."
Belichick shook his head sadly then bellowed sarcastically, "Way to compete, way to compete."
So when Welker's contract came up for renewal, Belichick was never going to allow that to happen as he had Amendola in town on the night before the start of free agency, poised to take a physical and sign a contract once 4:00pm rolled around.
The moral to the story? Availability, dependability and effort are everything to Belichick, so when the start of the 2013 season started for the Patriots in Buffalo and Amendola suffered a complete tear of his adductor muscle just minutes into the game, Edelman took his place and the rest, as they say (again), is history.
The tables have turned in 2017, with Edelman suffering a complete tear of his ACL, while Amendola is completely healthy for the first time in four seasons in Foxborough.
Amendola's extensive injury history is actually more a matter of the way he has performed his job than anything else, which was with reckless abandon and having little regard for his own safety - but Amendola has mellowed with age and experience and as a result of the adductor tear, which lingered for three years as he had surgery to repair the tear and afterwards he and team had to manage recovery time with part-time action.
But if Amendola is completely healthy and if he's learned to play the game in a more measured and thoughtful way, would he be able to replace Edelman the way he was originally signed to replace Wally Pipp - er, um, Wes Welker?
To answer that question righteously, we need to explore Amendola's medical history.
In 2011, which was his third season in the league, Amendola tore his triceps in the season opener and was lost for the entire season. and then in 2012 he dislocated his clavicle, which nearly killed him as the bone went inward instead of outward, narrowly avoiding his aorta - and then came the groin tear in the 2013 season opener with the Patriots.
As most of his injury history suggests issues with his muscles tearing, it would make sense that part of managing Amendola and preserving his health lies in the training staff keeping his muscles loose and with extended stretching before any competitive activity - and particularly at the start of a season - because when healthy and playing, Amendola is just as capable as Edelman of being the go-to guy when the Patriots really need a play.
And in that respect, Amendola is as clutch as they come - and especially when the moment is biggest and lights are the brightest.
The most recent example of this came last season, when Amendola caught 23 balls for 243 yards (10.6 yards per catch) which, if taken at face value doesn't seem like much, but when you consider that of his 23 catches, nine went for a first down and four went for a touchdown, that presents the fact that 57% of the time that Amendola caught a ball, it either moved the chains or put points on the board...
...but in the playoffs, and in particularly the Super Bowl, when Amendola caught eight balls for 78 yards, a touchdown, the game-tying two point conversion and three first downs - one of those on a critical fourth down conversion on the Patriots' first touchdown drive - it becomes clear that Amendola and Edelman are cut from the same cloth.
The fact that the Patriots use Amendola mostly in have-to-have-it situations speaks volumes as to his dependability and the chemistry he has with quarterback Tom Brady - and with that said and being undeniable, how exactly does Amendola fit into the equation for buffering the loss of Edelman's production?
With the amount of talent on the pass catching depth charts in New England, he certainly will not have to do it alone, but it goes without saying that Brady and the coaching staff trust Amendola implicitly - but as they proved last season, they also trust Chris Hogan, Malcolm Mitchell and Rob Gronkowski, and now have former New Orleans speedster Brandin Cooks in the fold.
A very impressive list, indeed, so it's not beyond the realm of imagination that Amendola will continue his role as a late-down specialist and perhaps see an uptick in his overall production which could rival his 2015 season when he hauled in 65 balls - almost triple what he caught in 2016.
But as mentioned before, the burden for replacing Edelman's production doesn't lie solely with Amendola and, truthfully, the players that could truly take on a lot of the burden of filling Edelman's shoes in 2017 are running backs James White and Dion Lewis.
Very quietly and certainly under the radar, White put together the best receiving year for a Patriots' back in the history of the franchise, catching 60 balls - two more than Kevin Faulk did in 2008 and one more than Shane Vereen in 2014 - for 551 yards and five scores, then added 18 receptions for 137 yards and two more touchdowns, giving him 78 receptions for nearly 700 yards and seven scores...
...while Lewis looks to be his old self again like he was in 2015 before tearing his ACL. That season he caught an astounding 36 balls in seven games for 388 yards and two touchdowns - which would have averaged out to 82 balls for 900 yards.
Of course, this is all speculation. Perhaps the offense falls apart like it did at the end of 2015 when the Patriots entered the post-season with a still-gimpy trio of Edelman, Amendola and Gronkowski and with no running game to speak of and Brady takes a retirement-inducing flogging from opposing defenses - or maybe everyone stays healthy and the Patriots become a 2007-esque juggernaut that issues the beatings to the defenses.
If the latter occurs, the players on the roster won't have to do do much more than they have already proven they can do to reach that level, as the graph above will attest. In 2007, Brady competed 403 passes for 4,731 yards and an NFL record 50 touchdowns.
So as a team, the Patriots should be able to make up for Edelman's lost production without batting an eye otherwise.
All they have to do, is do their job.
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