Instead of using their top draft capital on young greyhounds, they used it on bringing in established veteran players and missed the mark on so many of them that is there any way to look at their offseason plan and not feel that it was a wasted opportunity?
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| Oregon's Tyrell Crosby bench presses a running back |
They sent their first round pick and one of their third round picks to New Orleans for wide receiver Brandon Cooks, their second round pick went to Carolina for defensive end Kony Ealy, their fourth round selection went to Indianapolis for tight end Dwayne Allen and they relinquished a fifth round pick to Buffalo for compensation in poaching running back Mike Gillislee in restricted free agency.
As a result, the Patriots ended up making just four selections in the draft, and only one of them, fourth round defensive end Deatrich Wise, made any impact at all. Cooks is gone, as is Ealy, while Allen and Gillislee play marginal roles with the team and may not survive this year's training camp - so even though Cooks logged a 1000 yard season and was traded away for a first round pick a few weeks ago, their investments returned minimal yield.
It wasn't all bad, however, as Belichick got his value from the undrafted free agent market, picking up linebacker Harvey Langi, Defensive tackle Adam Butler and tight end Jacob Hollister - but certainly he doesn't want to have to rely on finding gems in the market after the draft.
Most likely, the New England Patriots will be drafting mostly for defense at the top of Thursday night's draft - but their base concept dictates that they select a certain type of athlete.
The Big Nickel is a defensive alignment that has been deployed in Foxborough as the Patriots' base defense going on three seasons now - and while statistically mediocre in practice, it affords the unit the ability to rotate players in and out of the front seven to keep the bigger guys fresh throughout the game, while the lithe athletes on the back end hold the fort.
The alignment calls for three safeties, two cornerbacks, three linebackers and three down linemen, but it deployed in such a way that it resembles a standard 4-3 defense.
On the front end, two tackles and a defensive end line up offset, favoring the weak side of the offensive set, which leaves a gap on the strong side for a linebacker to wreak havoc from the edge as a pass rusher and as an edge setter. This part of the formation is known as a three-plus-one subset developed in New York by - you guessed it - Bill Belichick when he was the defensive coordinator for the Giants in the 1980's...
...designed to engage the talents of a linebacker named Lawrence Taylor, who developed into an intimidating force on Bill Parcells' championship teams. In the modern day, that position was supposed to be for rookie pass rusher Derek Rivers to ease into while being mentored by veteran strong side linebacker Shea McClellan, but injuries to both in training camp and the subsequent loss of rookie Harvey Langi to an off field traffic accident left the position desperately void.
The situation was compounded when team captain Dont'a Hightower ruptured a pectoral muscle early in the season, leaving only Kyle Van Noy as the only established linebacker on the second level and prompting Belichick to initially sign Cassius Marsh away from Seattle, then poach Eric Lee off of the Buffalo Bills' practice squad and eventually pluck James Harrison off the waiver wire from Pittsburgh late in the season.
All three had their moments, but Lee is the only one still left on the roster from that group.
Rivers is expected back, as are Langi and Hightower, who will join Van Noy to form a decent, yet medically vulnerable linebacking corps, so finding trustworthy help on the second level should be top priority for the Patriots in the draft.
In all fairness, having the proper personnel to man the Big Nickle on the back end made it possible for New England to advance to their eighth Super Bowl of the Belichick era despite the avalanche of injuries, as both free safety Devin McCourty and strong safety Patrick Chung frequently reduced down onto the second level to assume slot and linebacker duties to fill the void left by injury, while elite centerfielder Duron Harmon kept the blue line clean.
Chung is a tough customer, but will turn 31 years old in training camp, while McCourty will be the same six days earlier, making them greybeards in football terms - and while Chung recently signed a team-friendly contract extension, McCourty is going to cost the team $12 million in cap space this season and $14 million in 2019. Harmon signed an extension last offseason and has an affordable cap number for the foreseeable future...
...meaning that Belichick will probably be looking for player to develop behind Chung and McCourty as well.
On the other side of the ball, The only real question is at left tackle, after Solder departed for greener pastures - and while the team did re-sign veteran swing man LaAdrian Waddle and still have yet to see 2017 draft pick Antonio Garcia on the field, the depth in the 2018 draft is decent, so expect Belichick to increase his own depth by selecting a ready-to-play tackle.
1st round (23rd/23rd overall)
Leighton Vander Esch, ILB, Boise State (6' 4", 255)
A do-it all interior linebacker, Vander Esch is as athletically gifted as any interior linebacker playing today, but with the length and instincts to become an every down force. In the running game, his core strength belies his size and length and in the passing game is a condor in the middle zone, forcing quarterbacks eyes to the perimeter.
His presence in the middle would allow for Belichick to vary his schemes from game-to-game and even play-to-play, and would also allow for Hightower to play more weak side in traditional sets and would take a lot of heat off of Van Noy, and allow him to concentrate on being the strong side force he was in college.
If Vander Esch is plucked off the board before the Patriots select, there is always Alabama's Rashaan Evans or they can dip into the late second round for Indiana's Tegray Scales - but make no mistake, Vander Esch is the complete package.
Alternate pick: Rashaan Evans, OLB, Alabama
2nd round (9th/41st overall) - from Oakland
Mike Hughes, CB, Central Florida (5' 11", 195)
In this scenario, the Patriots trade their 31st overall pick to the Oakland Raiders, who have needs for an impact linebacker, cornerback and offensive guard.
NFL ready press corner with the instincts, footwork and ball skills to play zone and off-man, with an added bonus of possessing elite kick and punt return skill.
Punks receivers off the line in press coverage, looking to completely disrupt their routes and take them out of the play, and plays like a safety in zone coverages, keeping his man in front of him and breaking on the ball with outstanding anticipation, often able to knock the ball away upon impact. He sniffs out screens and arrives with a pop in run support despite his lack of size.
Is considered a "projection-based" prospect because of some off field issues that ruined his freshman season and forced him to transfer from North Carolina to a junior college, where he earned All American honors and an invite to Central Florida, where he played just one year before declaring for the draft - but in his time with the Knights, he earned first-team All American Athletic Conference honors as a corner, and second-team honors as a kick returner.
Alternate pick: Isaiah Oliver, CB, Colorado
2nd round (11th/43rd overall)
Luke Falk, QB, Washington State (6' 4", 225)
A Brady disciple, Falk is the prototypical Patriots' pocket passer with the size to see over the big uglies up front and excellent lateral mobility and pocket awareness to slide out of danger.
Like the recently departed Jimmy Garoppolo, Falk's eyes are tied to his feet, which is evident in film study as he goes through his entire progression, moving his feet and keeping his arm cocked and ready to fire. Though some question his arm strength, his skill set allows him to throw against man coverage outside the numbers with plenty of zip.
He does have a bit of Jacoby Brissett in him as well, as he tends to throw off his back foot to try to avoid the sack - sometimes into tight coverage, but overall he is a solid prospect, and the fact that he tries to emulate Brady in his game doesn't hurt.
Alternate Pick: Logan Woodside, QB, Toledo
2nd round (31st/63rd overall)
Tyrell Crosby, OT, Oregon (6' 6", 325)
With Antonio Garcia waiting in the wings with a health status that needs continuous monitoring, the Patriots aren't likely to spend top draft capital on a blindside tackle - and why should they when Crosby is projected to be available in the fourth round?
Elected to stay in school rather than enter the draft in 2017 since his 2016 season was a washout due to injury, and moved from right tackle to the left, where he earned the Morris Trophy for being named the Pac-12 Lineman of the Year as voted on by opposing defensive linemen, allowing just three quarterback hurries and yielding no sacks for the entire season.
There are those who still feel that Crosby should anchor the right side - and would be excellent insurance in the event Marcus Cannon doesn't respond coming off of the IR - but he is athletic enough to play either tackle position.
Alternate pick: Chukwuma Okarafor, OT, Western Michigan
3rd round (31st/95th overall)
Jaylen Samuels, RB, North Carolina State (6' 0", 235)
A "utility player" who can do it all on offense. He is listed as a tight end in your NC State programs, but he is really a running back with elite receiving skill. The Wolfpack used him out of the backfield, as an off-the-line tight end and a slot receiver.
So good is he in the pattern that he broke Jerricho Cotchery's school record for receptions and yardage and took over goal line back duties as a senior - a touchdown machine, "JaySam" scored 28 rushing touchdowns and 19 receiving touchdowns in his career, and also served as a kick returner as a senior.
Given all of that, Samuels would be a perfect replacement for the production of Dion Lewis.
Alternate pick: Royce Freeman, RB, Oregon
4th round (10th/110th overall) - from Oakland
Fred Warner, LB/SS, Brigham Young (6' 3", 235)
Warner is a tweener - a coverage linebacker in college but perhaps a big-time strong safety in the pros, and in New England's Big Nickel alignment. In Foxborough, there isn't any difference between the two. Drafting Warner would pay dividends in two ways. First, he is a big, fast sideline-to-sideline entity who is fast enough to stick with backs in the pattern and big enough to avoid being punked by tight ends...
...while at the same time developing under the tutelage of Patrick Chung, who is aging and comes out of the game with injury more than he used to, but still has some pop to his game.
Alternate pick: Marcus Allen, SS, Penn State
6th round (24th/198th overall)
Tyler Conklin, TE, Central Michigan (6' 4", 240)
Conklin had a down year in 2017, statistically, due to a fracture in his foot in camp, but at 6' 3" tall and 245 pounds and with vice-like hands, he should be in the mix as a "move" tight end despite running poorly at the combine. He caught 35 balls for 504 yards in eight games and scored five times as a senior. Central Michigan had all kinds of quarterbacking problems in the past couple of seasons, but a look at his 2016 tape shows his potential.
A decent trap blocker on the edge in the running game makes him more draftable than some of the higher rated prospects, but he needs to learn how to use his body to shield defenders from the ball as a receiver, as he will allow linebackers and safeties to get inside to get a hand on the ball - which is all coaching - but once he gets his hands on a ball, chances are very good that he will haul it in.
Because of his broken foot last season, teams will be pressed to evaluate his durability.
6th round (36th/210th overall)
Braden Smith, G, Auburn (6' 6", 305)
Built like a Mack Truck and knows how to use his frame. If selected, could push Joe Thuney for playing time coming out of camp. Nasty mauler in the running game who has spot duty potential at either tackle position, and potential as a sixth offensive lineman to knock would-be tacklers off their pegs on perimeter runs. A one-man street fight in pass pro, which makes up for some of his lack of reactive athleticism.
7th round (1st/219th overall)
Braxton Berrios, WR, Miami (5' 9", 186)
A Danny Amendola clone with requisite toughness and punt return ability makes him well worth the draft capital, and could surprise with a roster spot, usurping a veteran.
