Showing posts with label 2018 NFL Draft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2018 NFL Draft. Show all posts

Sunday, April 29, 2018

From Wynn To Izzo, Patriots Get Physical In 2018 Draft

I got one pick right.

One lousy pick - but in mock drafts, one shouldn't expect to be able to read the mind of a tenured NFL head coach, and especially not "Trader Bill" Belichick, who made exactly as many draft day trades as he did making actual selections - and my one and only success, wide receiver Braxton Berrios from the University of Miami, came in the sixth round, when I had him as an afterthought in the seventh.

But once again, Belichick proved that he knows more about his team and what kind of player he's looking for while the rest of us are speculative spectators with no clue.
FSU's Ryan Izzo

Instead of replacing what he had lost in the free agency period, he simply made moves that put his Patriots on course to morph into something other than what it was, proving once again the axiom that insanity is defined as doing something the same way over and over again, yet expecting different results.

The Patriots failed to achieve their goal last season, Belichick identified why and moved to correct it.

The first thing he did was to address a lack of physicality in his offensive line by both drafting an offensive tackle who says he's a "lovable guy" but sure doesn't look like it on the field, and then trading away a third round pick to San Francisco to acquire a huge mountain of a man who is considered one of the best strong-side pass protectors in the game...

...adding a talented inline tight end who thrives for contact and was one of the best pure blocking tight ends in the class, though he does have some usefulness in the pattern as well - The toughness on offense wasn't all unique to the offensive line, as the Patriots selected a tough runner and a traditional garden gnome sized slot man who reminds many of a clutch playoff performer who now resides in Miami.

The brutality acquired wasn't solely destined for the offensive side of the ball as Belichick drafted a set of interior linebackers custom made to play alongside each other, suggesting an emphasis on run defense - but also took a couple of corners who look to be potential replacements for two recently-departed veteran corners.

Most of the selections were for players who were admittedly under the radar of the more well-known college athletes, but as usual, Belichik worked the draft board and selected players in positions where he got the greatest value for them, and ended up with a solid draft that improved the team's physicality, something that was sorely needed.

Here's a look at the Patriots' draft class (plus a major pick up via trade):


Isaiah "Ike" Wynn, Offensive Tackle, Georgia
6' 3", 313 lbs

New England's zone blocking scheme requires linemen with quick feet and good lateral movement, and in the past has sacrificed size for dexterity. In Wynn, the Patriots get all of the above without sacrificing anything.

A tackle in a guard's body, Wynn was initially listed as a guard in most draft profiles simply because college tackles his size usually make the switch inside where their shorter stature gains them better leverage against bigger defenders - but the Patriots made sure that the world knew that they were selecting him as a tackle.

A breakfast chef in the running game, Wynn serves up pancakes to defensive ends and tackles and has the athleticism to make sure he gets to the second level to give linebackers a taste as well. So dominating was he at tackle that he earned AP Second-team All-American and first-team All-SEC honors - and considering the competition, that is indeed high praise.

Because he is so versatile - he has the ability to play every spot on the offensive line - what his selection does is give Belichick some intriguing options. At left tackle, there is no guarantee that 2017 draft pick Antonio Garcia will have completely recovered from a bout of blood clots in his lungs, a malady that caused the already thin Division II product to lose 40 pounds - and at guard he is a clear upgrade over third-year man Joe Thuney, so instead of pigeon-holing Wynn at one position, we should just let Belichick and Dante Scarnecchia figure out to best use him...

Sony Michel, Running Back, Georgia
5' 11", 214 lbs

The first that stands out about Michel is his excellence in pass protection. Perhaps the best back in the class at picking up the blitz, his determination and willingness to put himself in harm's way also factors into his no-nonsense running style, where he displays an angular, jerky approach in setting up his blocks, with elite accelleration once he sees the hole.

He plays faster than his timed speed would indicate as he frequently gained corners against some of the best edge setters the SEC had to offer, and his balance and finishing toughness served him well in running between the tackles.

His production, running style and pass production mirrors what veteran Patriots' runner James White's did coming out of college, excelling both through the air and on the ground, but while White earns his bones as a passing back, the slightly bigger Michel will be in the mix for the lead back role in the Patriots' offense.

Trenton Brown, Offensive Tackle, Acquired from San Francisco
6' 8", 359lbs

Just hours prior to the second day of the NFL Draft, Belichick traded the 95th overall pick to San Francisco for Brown, who Denver Broncos' defensive end Von Miller proclaimed is "The best right tackle in the National Football League. There's not another tackle in the league who is that tall, that big, and can move the way he does."

That assertion was in response to a question from a reporter who asked Miller to name the blocker who gave him the most trouble - high praise for a kid that no one outside of the bay area had ever heard of, but who is very familiar to opposing pass rushers and is more of a natural athlete than incumbent right tackle, former All-Pro Marcus Cannon, who was shelved most of 2017 with a bum ankle.

The move for Brown coupled with the draft capital given up in exchange for him suggests that something may be up with Cannon, who may be relegated to swing tackle duties, for which he has shown a penchant for.

Duke Dawson, Cornerback/Safety, Florida
5' 11", 197lbs

Dawson is an assertive, aggressive slot corner who will try to intimidate opposing receivers with his strength and leverage in tight quarters when assigned in man coverage, and brings a ball hawking, head-hunting philosophy when responsible for an area in zone coverage - which makes sense as he is a safety-turned-corner who brings the same dimensions to the position as former Patriot Logan Ryan did.

In 19 games started as a slot corner, Dawson recorded 23 passes defensed and picked off six balls, three of which he returned for scores - but most impressively, he shuts down premier slot talent and allowed opposing quarterbacks a lowly passer rating of just 41 when targeted.

Given his aggressive style and experience at safety, Dawson could potentially be given strong safety duties in the Patriots' Big Nickel alignment at times to spell veteran greybeard Patrick Chung, as his coverage on running backs and his willingness to go nose to nose with them in the ground game are both part of his charm.

Ja'whaun Bentley, "Mike" Linebacker, Purdue
6' 2", 260lbs

An old-school tough linebacker who would be more at home on a 1970's era Patriots' squad, Bentley thrives on contact and has plus anticipation skills - which goes to figure because one look at his tape shows him to be an excellent "Mike" linebacker in a 3-4 alignment, whose primary responsibility is to take on blockers and occupying them, allowing the weak side linebacker, commonly referred to as a "Will" linebacker, to flow to the football.

Bentley most commonly lines up a guard or center looking to move to the second level and uncoils on them, more often than not standing them up in their tracks, much like what a defensive tackle is supposed to do but with a head of steam that makes the blockers remember playing him.

A bigger, more powerful version of Elandon Roberts, he isn't much for lateral agility and cannot be trusted with man coverage on runners, but he defends the middle zone like a bulldozer and lets receivers coming across the middle know that they have to earn entry.

Christian Sam, "Will" Linebacker, Arizona State
6' 2", 245lbs

The perfect compliment to Bentley on the inside of a 3-4 alignment, Sam is a natural for the weak side interior position, where he flows to the ball and makes the tough stops - and is a three-down player who can mirror the footwork of most backs and can also hang with most tight ends crossing the middle.

So sound are his coverage techniques that the previous staff at Arizona State considered moving him to cornerback before determining that he and they would be best served by bulking him up and turning him loose underneath.

Not considered a "practice player", Sam is a gamer that does his best work on the stage - and while that kind of attitude tests Belichick's ire, the Patriots' strength and conditioning staff will make sure that he is up to the task.

Braxton Berrios, Wide Reciver, University of Miami
5' 9", 185 lbs.

A slot man in New England is different than it is elsewhere, as Belichick's offensive philosophy calls on the slot as his bread and butter, chain-moving entity, which requires instant separation, laser focus and precise route running with the ability to make body adjustments to reach balls thrown to slight openings.

Berrios possesses all of these traits and is considered one of the premier punt returners in the class. He was buried on the Hurricanes' depth chart until his senior season, when he broke out as the top pass catcher on the team, averaging over 12 yards per catch. Most compare him to Danny Amendola, and if he proves to be anything like the recently departed clutch receiver, then New England got a steal in the sixth round.

Danny Etling, Quarterback, LSU
6' 3", 225lbs

If anyone was expecting a quarterback drafted by New England to be an NFL-ready signal caller, they will be disappointed with Etling. If those same people were expecting a developmental prospect with a live arm, quick release and in need of mechanical coaching behind the greatest quarterback who ever played the game, then Etling would be everything they expected.

Has the arm talent to be a top passer and can make all of the throws on the route tree, but his footwork and impatience in the pocket are in need of professional coaching. He keeps his arm cocked at all times and has an quick release, but doesn't tie his eyes to his feet, meaning that he isn't always in the proper position to fire the football - even so, his completion percentage (60%) and his touchdown to interception ratio (8-1) are on par.

If the Patriots can improve his mechanical flaws and if Etling can improve his pocket awareness and get rid of his paranoia about phantom pressure off the edge, he could be a nice project as a backup with starter potential - if not, he's a practice squad candidate.

Keion Crossen, CB, Western Carolina
5' 10", 180 lbs

An off-man coverage maven with springs for legs and a willing run defender, Crossen should be a developmental project who could be ready to contribute after some time with strength and conditioning staff.

The Patriots' worked out Crossen an the Wake Forest Pro Day and was the fastest player on the field, running a stunning 4.33 forty yard dash and his game tape shows that he has solid fundamentals, with the ability to keep his man on radar when he turns to look for the football - something that really can't be taught - and his anticipation to high point the ball and to go get it are plus-sized.

If the Patriots can bulk him up a bit, they have a good prospect on their hands who could compete for a roster spot in the wake of injuries to both Cyrus and Jonathan Jones last season.

Ryan Izzo, Tight End, Florida State
6' 5", 255 lbs

Another old-school prospect, Izzo is a mean-tempered inline blocker who gives as good as he gets, especially on the wham blocks that Rob Gronkowski does so well. Notice that I said "prospect" and not "project", as Izzo is nearly ready to contribute as a pure blocking option in Foxborough, adding yet another degree of size and toughness to a blocking unit that was heavily upgraded in this draft.

Has soft hands and runs sharp routes, but there's not a lot of film on him as a receiver - but what there is shows a guy who catches well with his hands and looks to dish out punishment in order to gain yards after the catch - and in pass pro, he frequently served as an edge protector from the offset position from the tackle box, and mirrored speed rushers and bull rushers alike.

He will seriously jeopardize roster spots held currently by veterans as a low-cost, late-round gem.


Saturday, April 28, 2018

Patriots Select Corner/Safety Hybrid In Roller Coaster Second Night At NFL Draft

"Yesterday's weirdness is tomorrow's reason why." - Hunter S. Thompson

On Opening night at the draft on Thursday, New England general manager Bill Belichick, whose Patriots were thought to have big needs on defense, did exactly the opposite by drafting an offensive tackle and a running back - but that was ok, because there was always Friday night, when Belichick would satiate our thirst for linebackers and cornerbacks, and maybe even Tom Brady's heir apparent.

What happened instead was the typical mid-round roller coaster that brings Patriots' fans closer and
closer to the edge of their seats in anticipation of seeing their team draft a college player to help them to another title, only to fall back in their seats in exasperation as general manager Bill Belichick brings them to within seconds of greeting their newborn player, then pulling the chair out from underneath them.

Belichick woke up on Friday with two second round selections in the 2018 NFL draft, as well as a third rounder, but by the time the second night of the selection process opened for business, he was down to his second round picks, having dealt his third rounder to the San Francisco 49ers for a gargantuan right tackle who by all accounts is a bit bloated and out of shape...

...not from slothfulness nor laziness, but inactivity due to a long recovery period rehabbing from labrum surgery - and by the time that the night was over, Belichick didn't use either of his second round picks, opting instead to take Patriots' fans on an anxiety-driven amusement park ride that ended with him using a pick he acquired in the mad shuffle to move up to number 56 overall to select a cornerback that wasn't on anyone's radar.

Duke Dawson is a name that sounds like a cross between a 1980's style redneck action comedy full of fast cars and scantily-clad women and a turn-of-the-century teen drama with a consuming preoccupation with pubescent hormone overload - but in reality it belongs to a talented safety-turned-cornerback whose presence may mean the end for a couple of denigrated Patriots' roster hogs.

Dawson is a man-cover corner who works best from the slot where he can use tight quarters to punk his mirror and knock him off his route - and is an absolute terror in zone coverages where his background as a safety has led to most of his interceptions and all three of the pick-sixes in his college career at the University of Florida.

Short and compact, he makes up for size limitations in man coverage with smooth footwork and an exceptionally long reach, which comes into play on quick slants and prevents slot receivers from ever really gaining separation - and comes into play in zone coverage where he is able to break on balls in front of him to deny the completion.

In 19 career starts as a corner spanning half of his junior season and all of his senior season, Dawson recorded 23 passes defensed and intercepted six balls, returning three of them for scores.

Smothering slot receivers is his calling card - he allowed the third-lowest quarterback rating in college football last year - and he will be in the mix for snaps in a Patriots' secondary that utilizes a three safety "Big Nickel" alignment that places a premium on safety types who can reduce down into the box, as he brings the thunder in run support and is an opportunist and ball hawk...

...and fans shouldn't rule out seeing him in coverage on the better receiving running backs much in the manner of a strong safety - his skill is that diverse.

So what should the Patriots' fans expect on day three of the draft, in which Belichick is armed with the fifth pick in the fourth round, the sixth pick in the fifth round, a couple of sixth round picks and the top seventh rounder?

Probably, a developmental quarterback, a decent linebacker prospect and perhaps even a receiver - but whatever happens, Patriots' fans should heed Dr. Thompson's quote above and be ready for weirdness, for which there is a reason why - we just understand it yet.




Friday, April 27, 2018

Belichick's Brilliance As Talent Evaluator On Display In Selecting Fellow Bulldogs In First Round

Talk about your all-time smokescreens...

Bill Belichick is rarely a guy who drafts for need, but he is a cat that enjoys toying with the mice in the media and in the fan base - not to mention keeping the other teams in the league guessing as to what direction he's headed in the draft.

That alone could explain why the Dark Master once again eschewed the conventional wisdom of draft experts and the millions of fans who generate mock drafts to bring value to the New England Patriots' roster - showing once again that he knows his team better than we do, and he has a different perspective on said value.
Patriots' picks Wynn and Michel were college roommates

Leading up to the draft, visits with Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson had just about everyone on the planet thinking Belichick had the exciting and elusive Jackson pegged as his quarterback of the future, but out of that smokescreen came a pair of teammates from the University of Georgia who had such good chemistry with each other that they were roommates for the past two years.

To that end, very few of the aforementioned draft experts had either offensive tackle Ike Wynn or running back Sony Michel as first round picks for the Patriots, yet upon closer examination of the two Georgia Bulldogs - and the requisite 20/20 hindsight - it becomes obvious why Belichick filled his first round grocery bag with them.

When eliminating the group think angle, the focus becomes an argument that both do fill needs. With the loss of left tackle Nate Solder to free agency, a need arose to replace him the best they could, and in drafting Wynn with the 23rd overall pick, the Patriots have given themselves some intriguing options in how to do just that.

Usually, when a kid Wynn's size is coming out of college and having played tackle at that level, he is projected as a guard in the pros - but Wynn is the exception to that rule, being described as a tackle in a guard's body - and what cannot be overlooked is the fact that as a tackle at Georgia and playing in the rough-and-tumble Southeastern Conference, he gained second-team All-American and first-team All-SEC honors as a senior.

Yet it is his versatility, coupled with the depth already on the Patriots roster, that still poses questions as to where the 6' 3", 315 pound self-described "Very lovable guy" will fit into the lineup - and he will fit into the lineup because he is too talented an athlete to have languishing on the bench.

At left tackle, New England already has last season's selection of Antonio Garcia yet to see any playing time and swing tackle LaAdrian Waddle already on the depth chart, though Garcia is a huge question mark for the 2018 season as he continues to work his way back from experiencing blood clots in his lungs - a malady that kept him off the field all of his rookie season...

...though perhaps Wynn is also an insurance policy against the slow development of left guard Joe Thuney, who was primarily responsible for much of the abuse that Quarterback Tom Brady suffered last season. Even with no professional experience on his resume, Wynn is a clear upgrade at that position - and also a viable replacement for contract year right Guard Shaq Mason, should the Patriots not be able to negotiate an extension for the rising star.

Belichick has also given us reason to think that he's reworking the offensive line, as on Friday he sent his third round pick to the San Francisco 49ers for road-grading behemoth Trent Brown, given the fact that right tackle is a bit of a question mark with former All-Pro Marcus Cannon missing most of last season with a bum ankle, not to mention that he will be 30 years old before camp starts.

Brown is just 25 years old and graded out as Pro Football Focus' fourth best pass protector on the right side last season before falling victim to a torn labrum and landing on the IR, barely missing out on the top spot, just percentage points behind the Steelers' Marcus Gilbert in pass blocking efficiency. In exchange, San Francisco also sent their fifth round selection to New England to sweeten the deal.

Considering all of that, it's no wonder Belichick placed such a premium on drafting the best lineman available for his scheme. Patriots' Director of Player Personnel Nick Casario stated after the first round on Thursday night that Wynn would be fully invested in the competition to replace Solder, but it doesn't take a genius to think that Wynn could be a star elsewhere along the line, given his power and nastiness.

But perhaps the most unforeseen position grab in the entire first round of the NFL draft was when Belichick stood firm at pick number 31 - when most assumed he would trade down for extra day 2 picks - and took Wynn's college roommate, running back Sony Michel.

There are two schools of thought on why Belichick selected Michel. First, he is a powerful and electric runner whom many have compared to either Alvin Kamara or Todd Gurley and second, he is a no-nonsense, north-south runner that is adept at identifying his cutback lanes working behind a zone blocking scheme.

While not as elusive as the man he's replacing as the team's "lead back", he possesses elite burst and acceleration through the hole and has the requisite balance and discipline to make a series of sharp cuts to free himself in the open field, as evidenced by his 3.44 yards average after initial contact, which is assuredly Lewis territory.

Though he has work to do in receiving out of the backfield - he had several drops in this first three seasons at Georgia before being virtually ignored in the pattern as a senior - he has the skill set to become a three down back due to excellent blitz pickup and blocking. And while he certainly will have an impact for the Patriots in the ground game, it goes to figure that veterans James White and Rex Burkhead will join with Michel to form what could be one of the better committee approaches in the game.

In fact, one of the more important factors that will come from Michel's presence is that both White's and Burkhead's roles should become more defined, with Burkhead a violent change of pace option to help wear down defenses, while White can be freed up to be used all over the formation as a dangerous receiving option.

So while drafting Michel should prove a boon to the Patriots backfield overall, it could spell the end for the seldom-used Mike Gillislee and pose a serious threat to the roster spot for free agent addition Jeremy Hill.

Another surprise that came out of Belichick's Thursday night's slight-of-hand act is that he didn't target any defenders, perhaps because he saw how the board was shaping up and found that much of the elite talent on that side of the ball were still going to be available when they selected in the second round.

If Belichick covets edge defenders to play in his three-plus-one front in the Big Nickel, the undersized-but-explosive Harold Landry from Boston College is still on the board., as is Georgia's Lorenzo Carter - even though the team is stacked with defensive linemen. If it's going to be a corner, there are several elite prospects on the board, with Iowa's Josh Jackson and Colorado's Isaiah Oliver the top of that group...

...and if he is looking to bolster his linebacking corps, Indiana's Tegray Scales is an instinctive "Mike" linebacker, while BYU's Fred Warner is a hybrid cover 'backer that could eventually take over the team's Big Nickel from incumbent Patrick Chung.

But don't count out the possibility that Belichick opts for more offense - and it's all but certain that he will select a quarterback of the future with one of his second round picks or with his third rounder - r he'll just say screw the entire thing and go completely off the board of conventional wisdom and blow up the middle rounds with deal after deal.

After all, with the smokescreen that Belichick fooled us all with on Thursday night, would any scenario be a surprise to anyone?

Wednesday, April 25, 2018

Patriots' Mock Draft - Final: Belichick Takes Mulligan On 2017 Misses; Trades Down, Loads Up

For the New England Patriots, the 2017 team building process was a disaster - by their standards, anyway.

Instead of using their top draft capital on young greyhounds, they used it on bringing in established veteran players and missed the mark on so many of them that is there any way to look at their offseason plan and not feel that it was a wasted opportunity?
Oregon's Tyrell Crosby bench presses a running back

They sent their first round pick and one of their third round picks to New Orleans for wide receiver Brandon Cooks, their second round pick went to Carolina for defensive end Kony Ealy, their fourth round selection went to Indianapolis for tight end Dwayne Allen and they relinquished a fifth round pick to Buffalo for compensation in poaching running back Mike Gillislee in restricted free agency.

As a result, the Patriots ended up making just four selections in the draft, and only one of them, fourth round defensive end Deatrich Wise, made any impact at all. Cooks is gone, as is Ealy, while Allen and Gillislee play marginal roles with the team and may not survive this year's training camp - so even though Cooks logged a 1000 yard season and was traded away for a first round pick a few weeks ago, their investments returned minimal yield.

It wasn't all bad, however, as Belichick got his value from the undrafted free agent market, picking up linebacker Harvey Langi, Defensive tackle Adam Butler and tight end Jacob Hollister - but certainly he doesn't want to have to rely on finding gems in the market after the draft.

Most likely, the New England Patriots will be drafting mostly for defense at the top of Thursday night's draft - but their base concept dictates that they select a certain type of athlete.

The Big Nickel is a defensive alignment that has been deployed in Foxborough as the Patriots' base defense going on three seasons now - and while statistically mediocre in practice, it affords the unit the ability to rotate players in and out of the front seven to keep the bigger guys fresh throughout the game, while the lithe athletes on the back end hold the fort.

The alignment calls for three safeties, two cornerbacks, three linebackers and three down linemen, but it deployed in such a way that it resembles a standard 4-3 defense.

On the front end, two tackles and a defensive end line up offset, favoring the weak side of the offensive set, which leaves a gap on the strong side for a linebacker to wreak havoc from the edge as a pass rusher and as an edge setter. This part of the formation is known as a three-plus-one subset developed in New York by - you guessed it - Bill Belichick when he was the defensive coordinator for the Giants in the 1980's...

...designed to engage the talents of a linebacker named Lawrence Taylor, who developed into an intimidating force on Bill Parcells' championship teams. In the modern day, that position was supposed to be for rookie pass rusher Derek Rivers to ease into while being mentored by veteran strong side linebacker Shea McClellan, but injuries to both in training camp and the subsequent loss of rookie Harvey Langi to an off field traffic accident left the position desperately void.

The situation was compounded when team captain Dont'a Hightower ruptured a pectoral muscle early in the season, leaving only Kyle Van Noy as the only established linebacker on the second level and prompting Belichick to initially sign Cassius Marsh away from Seattle, then poach Eric Lee off of the Buffalo Bills' practice squad and eventually pluck James Harrison off the waiver wire from Pittsburgh late in the season.

All three had their moments, but Lee is the only one still left on the roster from that group.

Rivers is expected back, as are Langi and Hightower, who will join Van Noy to form a decent, yet medically vulnerable linebacking corps, so finding trustworthy help on the second level should be top priority for the Patriots in the draft.

In all fairness, having the proper personnel to man the Big Nickle on the back end made it possible for New England to advance to their eighth Super Bowl of the Belichick era despite the avalanche of injuries, as both free safety Devin McCourty and strong safety Patrick Chung frequently reduced down onto the second level to assume slot and linebacker duties to fill the void left by injury, while elite centerfielder Duron Harmon kept the blue line clean.

Chung is a tough customer, but will turn 31 years old in training camp, while McCourty will be the same six days earlier, making them greybeards in football terms - and while Chung recently signed a team-friendly contract extension, McCourty is going to cost the team $12 million in cap space this season and $14 million in 2019. Harmon signed an extension last offseason and has an affordable cap number for the foreseeable future...

...meaning that Belichick will probably be looking for player to develop behind Chung and McCourty as well.

On the other side of the ball, The only real question is at left tackle, after Solder departed for greener pastures - and while the team did re-sign veteran swing man LaAdrian Waddle and still have yet to see 2017 draft pick Antonio Garcia on the field, the depth in the 2018 draft is decent, so expect Belichick to increase his own depth by selecting a ready-to-play tackle.


1st round (23rd/23rd overall)

Leighton Vander Esch, ILB, Boise State (6' 4", 255)

A do-it all interior linebacker, Vander Esch is as athletically gifted as any interior linebacker playing today, but with the length and instincts to become an every down force. In the running game, his core strength belies his size and length and in the passing game is a condor in the middle zone, forcing quarterbacks eyes to the perimeter.

His presence in the middle would allow for Belichick to vary his schemes from game-to-game and even play-to-play, and would also allow for Hightower to play more weak side in traditional sets and would take a lot of heat off of Van Noy, and allow him to concentrate on being the strong side force he was in college.

If Vander Esch is plucked off the board before the Patriots select, there is always Alabama's Rashaan Evans or they can dip into the late second round for Indiana's Tegray Scales - but make no mistake, Vander Esch is the complete package.

Alternate pick: Rashaan Evans, OLB, Alabama

2nd round (9th/41st overall) - from Oakland

Mike Hughes, CB, Central Florida (5' 11", 195)

In this scenario, the Patriots trade their 31st overall pick to the Oakland Raiders, who have needs for an impact linebacker, cornerback and offensive guard.

NFL ready press corner with the instincts, footwork and ball skills to play zone and off-man, with an added bonus of possessing elite kick and punt return skill.

Punks receivers off the line in press coverage, looking to completely disrupt  their routes and take them out of the play, and plays like a safety in zone coverages, keeping his man in front of him and breaking on the ball with outstanding anticipation, often able to knock the ball away upon impact. He sniffs out screens and arrives with a pop in run support despite his lack of size.

Is considered a "projection-based" prospect because of some off field issues that ruined his freshman season and forced him to transfer from North Carolina to a junior college, where he earned All American honors and an invite to Central Florida, where he played just one year before declaring for the draft - but in his time with the Knights, he earned first-team All American Athletic Conference honors as a corner, and second-team honors as a kick returner.

Alternate pick: Isaiah Oliver, CB, Colorado

2nd round (11th/43rd overall)

Luke Falk, QB, Washington State (6' 4", 225)

A Brady disciple, Falk is the prototypical Patriots' pocket passer with the size to see over the big uglies up front and excellent lateral mobility and pocket awareness to slide out of danger.

Like the recently departed Jimmy Garoppolo, Falk's eyes are tied to his feet, which is evident in film study as he goes through his entire progression, moving his feet and keeping his arm cocked and ready to fire. Though some question his arm strength, his skill set allows him to throw against man coverage outside the numbers with plenty of zip.

He does have a bit of Jacoby Brissett in him as well, as he tends to throw off his back foot to try to avoid the sack - sometimes into tight coverage, but overall he is a solid prospect, and the fact that he tries to emulate Brady in his game doesn't hurt.

Alternate Pick: Logan Woodside, QB, Toledo

2nd round (31st/63rd overall)

Tyrell Crosby, OT, Oregon (6' 6", 325)

With Antonio Garcia waiting in the wings with a health status that needs continuous monitoring, the Patriots aren't likely to spend top draft capital on a blindside tackle - and why should they when Crosby is projected to be available in the fourth round?

Elected to stay in school rather than enter the draft in 2017 since his 2016 season was a washout due to injury, and moved from right tackle to the left, where he earned the Morris Trophy for being named the Pac-12 Lineman of the Year as voted on by opposing defensive linemen, allowing just three quarterback hurries and yielding no sacks for the entire season.

There are those who still feel that Crosby should anchor the right side - and would be excellent insurance in the event Marcus Cannon doesn't respond coming off of the IR - but he is athletic enough to play either tackle position.

Alternate pick: Chukwuma Okarafor, OT, Western Michigan

3rd round (31st/95th overall)

Jaylen Samuels, RB, North Carolina State (6' 0", 235)

A "utility player" who can do it all on offense. He is listed as a tight end in your NC State programs, but he is really a running back with elite receiving skill. The Wolfpack used him out of the backfield, as an off-the-line tight end and a slot receiver.

So good is he in the pattern that he broke Jerricho Cotchery's school record for receptions and yardage and took over goal line back duties as a senior - a touchdown machine, "JaySam" scored 28 rushing touchdowns and 19 receiving touchdowns in his career, and also served as a kick returner as a senior.

Given all of that, Samuels would be a perfect replacement for the production of Dion Lewis.

Alternate pick: Royce Freeman, RB, Oregon

4th round (10th/110th overall) - from Oakland

Fred Warner, LB/SS, Brigham Young (6' 3", 235)

Warner is a tweener - a coverage linebacker in college but perhaps a big-time strong safety in the pros, and in New England's Big Nickel alignment. In Foxborough, there isn't any difference between the two. Drafting Warner would pay dividends in two ways. First, he is a big, fast sideline-to-sideline entity who is fast enough to stick with backs in the pattern and big enough to avoid being punked by tight ends...

...while at the same time developing under the tutelage of Patrick Chung, who is aging and comes out of the game with injury more than he used to, but still has some pop to his game.

Alternate pick: Marcus Allen, SS, Penn State

6th round (24th/198th overall)

Tyler Conklin, TE, Central Michigan (6' 4", 240)

Conklin had a down year in 2017, statistically, due to a fracture in his foot in camp, but at 6' 3" tall and 245 pounds and with vice-like hands, he should be in the mix as a "move" tight end despite running poorly at the combine. He caught 35 balls for 504 yards in eight games and scored five times as a senior. Central Michigan had all kinds of quarterbacking problems in the past couple of seasons, but a look at his 2016 tape shows his potential.

A decent trap blocker on the edge in the running game makes him more draftable than some of the higher rated prospects, but he needs to learn how to use his body to shield defenders from the ball as a receiver, as he will allow linebackers and safeties to get inside to get a hand on the ball - which is all coaching - but once he gets his hands on a ball, chances are very good that he will haul it in.

Because of his broken foot last season, teams will be pressed to evaluate his durability.

6th round (36th/210th overall)

Braden Smith, G, Auburn (6' 6", 305)

Built like a Mack Truck and knows how to use his frame. If selected, could push Joe Thuney for playing time coming out of camp. Nasty mauler in the running game who has spot duty potential at either tackle position, and potential as a sixth offensive lineman to knock would-be tacklers off their pegs on perimeter runs. A one-man street fight in pass pro, which makes up for some of his lack of reactive athleticism.

7th round (1st/219th overall)

Braxton Berrios, WR, Miami (5' 9", 186)

A Danny Amendola clone with requisite toughness and punt return ability makes him well worth the draft capital, and could surprise with a roster spot, usurping a veteran.

Wednesday, April 18, 2018

Best Quarterback Options For Patriots Likely Day Two Picks

Replacing a legend is hard enough, but replacing the best that ever played the game of football requires a certain level of naivete.

Which means rookie, which means that the New England Patriots should be looking for a quarterback in this year's draft to develop into Tom Brady's replacement, whenever the greatest quarterback to ever play the game decides to appease his wife and at the same time bow to Father Time in making a grand exit from professional football.
Toledo's Logan Woodside

When that will be is a topic of much speculation and occasional rude dissension among fans and media but one thing is for certain: he should announce his retirement at the very moment he retires, because if he announces it ahead of time like baseball players do, the fans at the homefields of teams he's dominated over the years are apt to be jeerful, at the very least.

Remember when David Ortiz announced his retirement from the Red Sox? Every town the Sox traveled to, the host ownership showered him with gifts ranging from cigars from the Astros, BBQ sauce from the Royals, peanut butter from the Twins and custom made cowboy boots from the Rangers.

So what could Brady expect from his hosts if he announced his retirement at the start of the 2018 season?

Oh, they'll shower him with gifts, alright. He could count on vibrating sex toys in Buffalo, size "D" batteries in New York and spoiled gas station sushi in Miami, all thrown from the upper deck and as close to the Greatest of all time as they can get - all in remembrance of how many times he ripped their hearts out over the years.

He'd have to leave his helmet on for sure, because outside of New England, his legacy is not one of respect, even begrudgingly. It will be a source of celebration for those fans, and celebrations like that have a way of getting out of hand.

Brady will be 41 years old when the season starts, and though he's stated more than once that he wants to play until he's 45, the smart money has him out of here a couple of years sooner than that, simply because he's got little left to prove to anyone - nothing to prove, actually - and he's said in his Tom vs. Time videos that he wanted to play in two more Super Bowls...

...but he announced that last August and has since played in a Super Bowl which, if my elementary math is correct, means that one more appearance in the big game, and Brady is lounging on a nude beach in Italy - or whatever else might float his boat.

So Patriots' general manager Bill Belichick has a monumental task in front of him, selecting a college quarterback who is closer to being an NFL starter than not, and whom they can develop quickly - it's not an ideal scenario for sure, but the future of the Patriots' dynasty rides on the decision.

But what kind of qualifications should a potentially Patriots' quarterback possess?

That particular skill set is as ambiguous as Belichick is in press conferences, for one reason: Belichick is the master at assimilating a player's skill set into his collective and adjusting his philosophy to put said player into a position to best succeed. That said, there are limitations to his square-peg-in-a-round-hole policy, as his offensive philosophy is so ingrained that he's not going to stray very far from it just to select a quarterback.

The following is a short list of traits that a quarterback who plays in a concept-based, methodical, move-the-chains offense needs to be successful :

   * has above average intelligence;
   * has experience in a pro-style offense;
   * is able to process quickly at the snap;
   * go through his progressions while keeping his eyes tied to his feet;
   * has good feel for pass rushers and doesn't get spooked by "phantom" pressure;
   * is ambulatory enough to slide out of trouble without stepping into pass rush;
   * has feel for the play action;
   * possesses quick (snap) release;
   * is able to drive balls into tight windows on short routes and on back-shoulder throws;
   * is able to put touch on balls up the seam to reach his tight ends;
   * is highly accurate

Keeping that in mind, and also that Belichick is unlikely to trade up to snag one of the "top rated" quarterbacks coming out of college, here are his options (click on player's name to watch highlight reel):

Baker Mayfield - Oklahoma - 6' 1", 215lbs
Projection: mid-to-late first round

A scheme-limited signal caller who checks many of the boxes that the Patriots require of their quarterbacks, with the exception of his college experience is tied almost strictly to the spread offense, and it is unknown how he will react under center and if he can sell the play action. That said, his accuracy is other-worldly when chased from the pocket, so opponents will likely game plan to keep him in the pocket and cut off his escape routes.

Keeping Mayfield in the pocket is not a sure avenue to success, however, unless teams can also make their pass rush big to take advantage of his lack of pocket height  He is compared to Doug Flutie among many experts, and while there is a lot of his game that feeds into that, his true comparison should be Drew Brees.

Mayfield may be over-valued in the draft due to the high number of teams seeking quarterbacks, so his basement is probably in the early teens, and Belichick would have to move up quite a bit to draft him.

Overall fit: Good

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Lamar Jackson - Louisville - 6' 2", 200lbs
Projection: Late 1st, early 2nd rounds

Most commonly compared to Michael Vick due to his scrambling ability, speed and elusiveness in the open field and wrist-snapping delivery but the comparisons end there. Despite elite arm strength, will wrist balls instead of stepping into his throws, which causes underthrows on intermediate and deep attempts. Is most comfortable running the run-pass option offense, but has a lot of experience under center and his play action fake is flawless.

He's small for the amount of punishment he is apt to take, and is quick to pull the ball down and run before getting though his progressions. Overall, Jackson is an elite athlete with the legs to run all day long, but is a couple of years away from being able to lead a pro style offense. In the pros, he finds the right fit, or he becomes a gadget player.

Overall fit: Good

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Mason Rudolph - Oklahoma State - 6' 5", 235
Projection: second round

Rudolph is a pure pocket passer with a penchant for loading up the play action and going vertical for the big play - and that's a problem if the kid wants to play in Foxborough.

Belichick favors the grind-it-out, move-the-chains, ball control horizontal game that is based on quick outs and timing patterns, picking and choosing their spots to go down the field after lulling the defense to sleep. That's not Rudolph's style, and certainly not the out routes, particularly field-side outs, as he rarely gets turned to drive the ball to the sidelines, instead floating the ball.

Rudolph checks all the boxes so far as physical attributes, lets routes develop and makes his reads, but his arm strength is in question. That said, there was a question about Brady in that respect coming out of Michigan, and that turned out ok...

Overall Fit: Good

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Luke Falk - Washington State - 6' 4", 225lbs
Projection: late second, early third

All Patriots' fans need to know about Falk is that a full three-quarters of his throws in college went for less than 10 yards which, when added to his quick release, pocket poise, route progression and strong arm, makes him ideal for the move-the-chains attack.

He has a lot of Brady to his game, which goes to figure since that is who he has tried to emulate since he started playing football as a kid. Tall with a quick set up in the pocket and a built-in alarm system that activates his slide step when the rush gets near - he will go through his reads with his eyes tied to his feet then unload with a snap of the wrist, and may throw the best back shoulder fade and sideline accuracy in the class...so why late second/early third?

Simply, that he struggles against zone coverages at times and holds onto the ball too long, resulting in the 125 sacks he took in college. That's a lot of sacks and when combined with the shits he takes while releasing, there's a lot of wear on his body. That said, the quick read offense that Belichick prefers could be his best fit, especially with all of the possession-type receivers on the Patriots' roster.

Overall Fit: Very Good

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Mike White - Western Kentucky - 6' 4", 225lbs
Projection: late third, early fourth

One of the many passers in this draft that relies on a bazooka of an arm to fit the ball into windows in college that may or may not translate to the faster NFL game.

A high school pitcher who throws smoke and was named a Louisville Slugger All-American as a junior, he brings his fast ball to the pros and really does possess the velocity to hit tight windows, as well as a change-up that he can drop in a bucket when he goes vertical. His arm talent is undeniable and would be a shoe-in for the first round if his pocket awareness was any better at all.

Brady-esque in his size and posture in the pocket, he doesn't possess the sixth sense that Brady does in feeling pressure, has heavy feet and tends to panic when holding onto the ball for more than a second or two, mainly because he does not have the sixth sense. Is that coachable? If so, White is a perfect fit for what Belichick likes to do on offense.

Overall fit: Very Good

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Logan Woodside - Toledo - 6' 2", 200lbs
Projection: late third, early fourth

Smart. The most cerebral signal caller in the class with a football acumen that has no peer among his peers. Tough, accurate, throws receiver-friendly balls that lead them away from trouble and is as determined a cat as you'll ever see.

But his arm isn't a cannon like some of the others on this list. His seam work is excellent and anything between the hashmarks is destined to be caught as he can throw his receivers open and hit them in stride for good after-the-catch yardage. His only flaw appears to be how he labors to get the ball down the field along the sidelines.

It seems to take everything he has to throw those out patterns, and they still float a bit. Other than that, he's a solid gold find in the middle rounds.

Overall Fit: Very Good

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Kyle Lauletta - Richmond - 6' 3", 210lbs
Projection: late fourth, early fifth

The passer that local and national draft experts have had pegged for the Patriots since the start of the team-building process - and why not? He runs the play action, goes through progressions and uses the savvy of a veteran to move linebackers and safeties with his eyes as well as anyone in the class - in fact he is everything one could want for a Patriots' quarterback.

The issue is with arm strength. He struggles with anything more than 15-20 yards down the field to the point that he is forced into a high trajectory to get balls vertical, which delights safeties who can run under the throws and make plays easily - which shuts down the back of the field and allows teams to deploy single high safeties and bring more help up into the box.

Usually, when a prospect has a deficiency, it can be corrected with professional coaching, but it may not be possible to even mask the lack of arm strength and the limited route tree that he can reach accurately. If it is possible, this is the guy for New England.

Overall Fit: Good

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Nic Shimonek - Texas Tech - 6' 3" 225lbs
Projection: sixth round

Is it proper to refer to quarterbacking prospect as part-time? What I mean is that part of the time, he's as good a quarterback prospect as there is in this class - but the other part of the time, he looks like he should be playing on the freshman team.

Erratic? Inconsistent? yes, but can a professional coaching staff make him more of a steady signal caller and less of a wild card?

Blessed with perhaps the best arm in the class, Shimonek can make all of the NFL throws, and his deep outs arrive with mustard on them, even when on the move. Reads coverages well and steps into throws to fit them into the tightest of windows. He can unload the ball from several different angles, which is the problem.

When he has a clean pocket or escapes to the flat, he has a squared-shoulder release that looks NFL-ready, but when he has to slide in the pocket against pressure, his mechanics go into the toilet - not the best thing to see on a resume, but I'd be curious to see him after a year or two of professional coaching.

Overall Fit: Moderate

As you can see, according to our film study, the best prospects for the Patriots in this deep draft reside on the second day, which makes them outstanding value picks - and if Belichick can cure a couple of flaws with the prospect that he chooses, there is enough talent in the class to give hope to Patriots' fans that a downturn in the fortunes of their franchise is not necessarily a given...














Friday, April 6, 2018

Patriots' Mock Draft 2.0: Belichick Looking For Value, Will Likely Trade Down To Collect Day Two Capital

The New England Patriots' offseason needs could hardly be met by a diluted free agent pool.

I mean, where were they going to find an impact, off-the-ball outside linebacker with superior coverage skills in free agency? How about a developmental quarterback who is closer to leading a team than not? How about an offensive tackle ready to take over and protect quarterback Tom Brady's old back side?

Hell, there wasn't even a young developmental cornerback to be had.
NC State's Jaylen Samuels

The truth of the matter is that after the first frenzied wave of free agency, there wasn't much to be had except for overpriced, overly-tenured veterans who offered a season or two of service, but not anything a coaching staff could hang their collective hats on.

The market was so bad this league year that the Patriots couldn't upgrade on, or even properly replace the players they lost in free agency - simply because the players they lost were listed among the best free agents at their positions, and were scooped up by teams with plenty of cap space who issued odious amounts of cash to them.

In fact, the players that are no longer on the team due to trade or free agency made serious bank with other teams. Jimmy Garoppolo, the top free agent quarterback on the market according to Rotoworld, signed a contract with San Francisco that made him the richest quarterback in the NFL, depositing an obscene $35 million into his bank accounts all at once, in the form of a $7 million signing bonus and a ridiculous $28 million roster bonus.

Running back Dion Lewis was the second rated free agent running back available, left tackle Nate Solder topped the list of the big uglies, and Malcolm Butler cashed in as the fifth-rated cornerback on the market - hell, even wide receiver Danny Amendola struck paydirt on a clearly over-the-top contract with the Dolphins, even though he was listed as the 17th best receiver in free agency.

Belichick did the best he could with the cap space he had, replacing Amendola with Jordan Matthews, Lewis with Jeremy Hill and Butler with Jason McCourty, and has 2017 draft pick Tony Garcia in line to take over for Solder, and re-signed the versatile LaAdrian Waddle just in case Garcia experiences growing pains.

But other than Matthews, potentially, none of these players are upgrades over the one's the Patriots' lost, but they are all serviceable - and bringing in nose tackle Danny Shelton to plug the gaping middle of the Patriots' defensive line, as well as Adrian Clayborn as a rotational pass rusher added quality where it was desperately needed.

That doesn't mean that those positions are settled, however, as an infusion of youth through the draft is desperately needed for a team that is aging gracefully, but aging nevertheless - a task made easier when Belichick dealt off speed merchant Brandin Cooks to the Los Angeles Rams in exchange for the number twenty-three pick in the draft...

...which opens up a whole word of possibilities that were not present just a couple of days ago. Some feel that Belichick should send both of his first round draft picks to New York to entice the Giants to unload Odell Beckham, or package a first and another pick to move up in the first round to select their quarterback of the future.

But those people are wrong.

Belichick does his best work when wheeling and dealing, that much is assured, but he tends to get the best value out of a draft when he trades down to acquire multiple mid-round picks, and in a draft class loaded in positions of need for the Patriots, trading down is just what the doctor ordered:

1st round (23rd/23rd overall)

Leighton Vander Esch, ILB, Boise State (6' 4", 255)

A do-it all interior linebacker, Vander Esch is as athletically gifted as any interior linebacker playing today, but with the length and instincts to become an every down force. In the running game, his core strength belies his size and length and in the passing game is a condor in the middle zone, forcing quarterbacks eyes to the perimeter.

His presence in the middle would allow for Belichick to vary his schemes from game-to-game and even play-to-play, and would also allow for Hightower to play more weak side in traditional sets and would take a lot of heat off of Van Noy, and allow him to concentrate on being the strong side force he was in college.

If Vander Esch is plucked off the board before the Patriots select, there is always Alabama's Rashaan Evans or they can dip into the late second round for Indiana's Tegray Scales - but make no mistake, Vander Esch is the complete package.

2nd round (9th/41st overall) - from Oakland

Isaiah Oliver, CB, Colorado (6' 0", 190)

In this scenario, the Patriots trade their 31st overall pick to the Oakland Raiders, who have needs for an impact linebacker, cornerback and offensive guard.

A developmental corner that possesses a first round grade on many experts' draft boards due to enormous potential as a bump-and-run, lockdown corner. Excellent size and elite speed matched with an Albatross-like wingspan. There are holes in his game and could use a year behind Stephon Gilmore to learn the nuances of the pro game, but the sky is the limit.

If New England does not trade down out of the end of the first round, it will be because cornerback Josh Jackson has fallen to them at #31.

2nd round (11th/43rd overall)

Luke Falk, QB, Washington State (6' 4", 225)

A Brady disciple, Falk is the prototypical Patriots' pocket passer with the size to see over the big uglies up front and excellent lateral mobility and pocket awareness to slide out of danger.

Like the recently departed Jimmy Garoppolo, Falk's eyes are tied to his feet, which is evident in film study as he goes through his entire progression, moving his feet and keeping his arm cocked and ready to fire. Though some question his arm strength, his skill set allows him to throw against man coverage outside the numbers with plenty of zip.

He does have a bit of Jacoby Brissett in him as well, as he tends to throw off his back foot to try to avoid the sack - sometimes into tight coverage, but overall he is a solid prospect, and the fact that he tries to emulate Brady in his game doesn't hurt.

2nd round (31st/63rd overall)

Fred Warner, LB/SS, Brigham Young (6' 3", 235)

Warner is a tweener - a coverage linebacker in college but perhaps a big-time strong safety in the pros, and in New England's Big Nickel alignment. In Foxborough, there isn't any difference between the two. Drafting Warner would pay dividends in two ways. First, he is a big, fast sideline-to-sideline entity who is fast enough to stick with backs in the pattern and big enough to avoid being punked by tight ends...

...while at the same time developing under the tutelage of Patrick Chung, who is aging and comes out of the game with injury more than he used to, but still has some pop to his game.

3rd round (31st/95th overall)

Jaylen Samuels, H-Back, North Carolina State (5' 11", 235)

A "utility player" who can do it all on offense. He is listed as a tight end in your NC State programs, but he is really a running back with elite receiving skill. The Wolfpack used him out of the backfield, as an off-the-line tight end and a slot receiver.

So good is he in the pattern that he broke Jerricho Cotchery's school record for receptions and yardage and took over goal line back duties as a senior - a touchdown machine, "JaySam" scored 28 rushing touchdowns and 19 receiving touchdowns in his career, and also served as a kick returner as a senior.

4th round (10th/110th overall) - from Oakland

Tyrell Crosby, OT, Oregon (6' 6", 325)

With Antonio Garcia waiting in the wings with a health status that needs continuous monitoring, the Patriots aren't likely to spend top draft capital on a blindside tackle - and why should they when Crosby is projected to be available in the fourth round?

Elected to stay in school rather than enter the draft in 2017 since his 2016 season was a washout due to injury, and moved from right tackle to the left, where he earned the Morris Trophy for being named the Pac-12 Lineman of the Year as voted on by opposing defensive linemen, allowing just three quarterback hurries and yielding no sacks for the entire season.

There are those who still feel that Crosby should anchor the right side - and would be excellent insurance in the event Marcus Cannon doesn't respond coming off of the IR - but he is athletic enough to play either tackle position.

6th round (24th/198th overall)

Tyler Conklin, TE, Central Michigan (6' 4", 240)

Conklin had a down year in 2017, statistically, due to a fracture in his foot in camp, but at 6' 3" tall and 245 pounds and with vice-like hands, he should be in the mix as a "move" tight end despite running poorly at the combine. He caught 35 balls for 504 yards in eight games and scored five times as a senior. Central Michigan had all kinds of quarterbacking problems in the past couple of seasons, but a look at his 2016 tape shows his potential.

A decent trap blocker on the edge in the running game makes him more draftable than some of the higher rated prospects, but he needs to learn how to use his body to shield defenders from the ball as a receiver, as he will allow linebackers and safeties to get inside to get a hand on the ball - which is all coaching - but once he gets his hands on a ball, chances are very good that he will haul it in.

Because of his broken foot last season, teams will be pressed to evaluate his durability.

6th round (36th/210th overall)

Braden Smith, G, Auburn (6' 6", 305)

Built like a Mack Truck and knows how to use his frame. If selected, could push Joe Thuney for playing time coming out of camp. Nasty mauler in the running game who has spot duty potential at either tackle position, and potential as a sixth offensive lineman to knock would-be tacklers off their pegs on perimeter runs. A one-man street fight in pass pro, which makes up for some of his lack of reactive athleticism.

7th round (1st/219th overall)

Braxton Berrios, WR, Miami (5' 9", 186)

A Danny Amendola clone with requisite toughness and punt return ability makes him well worth the draft capital, and could surprise with a roster spot, usurping a veteran.

Tuesday, April 3, 2018

Tight End Draft Class Not Deep, So Patriots Should Look For Value In Later Rounds

In 2010, the New England Patriots ushered in what was supposed to be the Next Big Thing in professional football.

In drafting Arizona's Rob Gronkowski in the second round and Florida's Aaron Hernandez in the fourth, the Patriots had all the makings of a tight end-centric offense that was sure to run roughshod over the National Football League foe a decade, perhaps even longer.

But after two-and-a-half seasons bordering on greatness and contract extensions for both that paid Gronkowski $9 million per season and Hernandez $7.5, the two-tight end attack that was on the verge of becoming a league paradigm melted into broken bones and dark malfeasance.
Central Michigan's Tyler Conklin

Obviously vestigial since that point, the Patriots have nevertheless been active in trying to regain some semblance of the two tight end attack, but with very limited results. Michael Hoomanawanui and Matthew Mulligan were mostly end-of-the-line, blocking types, Tim Wright was a wide receiver playing tight end and Scott Chandler was a major disappointment in the role.

The only tight end opposite a somewhat fragile Gronkowski to flourish in that role was Martellus Bennett in 2016, though he ended up being the tight end once a herniated disc ended Gronkowski's season midway through - playing through various injuries himself as New England simply had no other options at the position...

...which is perhaps some of the reason why the Patriots claimed Bennett off of waivers from Green Bay towards the end of last season, though he ended up on the IR after a couple of games.

Without a doubt, the Patriots are star-crossed when it comes to the tight end position, and 2018 is shaping up as potentially the worst season yet, as Gronkowski is toying with the team and the fans as he takes out his frustrations with a rigid Bill Belichick on his teammates and the fans by feigning retirement.

Gronkowski is under contract for two more seasons, but it goes to figure that even if he chooses not to retire at the age of 28, these are final two seasons that Gronkowski will call Foxborough home - so it makes sense for the Patriots to be looking to free agency for immediate depth at the position and to the draft for an eventual replacement.

But is the answer to the depth part of the equation already on the 90-man roster?

Stony Brook University alum Will Tye spent most of last season on the Patriots' practice squad after being released by the New York Jets, who picked him up last offseason after he was part of the New York Giants' final cutdowns. Similar in size to Hernandez, Tye has better straight-line speed and lateral movement - but on the down side, his run blocking is just as atrocious as the former Patriot.

Tye caught 90 balls for 859 yards and four touchdowns in two full seasons with the Giants, suggesting that despite his speed, Tye was used mainly as a safety valve in New York - and if he were to make the roster in New England, chances are he would be used the same way in Foxborough.

Dwayne Allen, on the other hand, is a tremendous blocker who can't get out of his own way in the pass pattern, while young Jacob Hollister offered little else besides being a moving target for highlight film collisions over the middle - add all of this together and the Patriots should be in the market for both depth and skilled youth.

In the past couple of days they have brought in Troy Niklas, late of the Arizona Cardinals, but he's been in the trainers' room more in two seasons than Gronkowski has in eight, and he left Foxborough without an offer - and there's really nothing left in free agency that either isn't on the wrong side of thirty or has some severe physical limitations.

That said, has tight end become a sudden area of high need for the Patriots? Probably so, but one won't find an elite combination tight end in the 2018 draft, so late on day two and early on  day three of the draft is where the Patriots would likely be looking for a surprise gem at the position.

That excludes the likes of Goedert, Gesicki and Andrews who are all one dimensional yet are at the  top of the draft class, which speaks to how limited the class is - but there are a few potential finds in the middle rounds - the best of them being Central Michigan's Tyler Conklin.

Conklin had a down year in 2017, statistically, due to a fracture in his foot in camp, but at 6' 3" tall and 245 pounds and with vice-like hands, he should be in the mix as a "move" tight end despite running poorly at the combine. He caught 35 balls for 504 yards in eight games and scored five times. Central Michigan had all kinds of quarterbacking problems in the past couple of seasons, but a look at his 2016 tape shows his potential.

A decent trap blocker on the edge in the running game makes him more draftable than some of the higher rated prospects, but he needs to learn how to use his body to shield defenders from the ball as a receiver, as he will allow linebackers and safeties to get inside to get a hand on the ball - which is all coaching - but once he gets his hands on a ball, chances are very good that he will haul it in.

Because of his broken foot last season, teams will be pressed to evaluate his durability, but his stock should remain stationary as a solid late-third, early-fourth round pick - just slightly better than North Carolina State's Jaylen Samuels, who isn't really even a tight end, but is listed as such because evaluators can't seem to put a label on the kid.

It isn't often that one sees a tight end listed at 5' 11" and 225 pounds, so scouts are telling Samuels that he will most likely be slotted as a running back in the pros, but his skill set screams "Utility player", for which the Patriots have a rich history of finding in the selection process.

He lined up all over the offense for the Wolfpack, seeing time at "move" tight end, H-back (which is what he really is), running back, slot receiver and lined up wide - and ended his career as NC State's all-time receptions leader, surpassing Jerricho Cotchery school record by catching 202 passes and averaging nearly 10 yards per and scoring 19 times...

...while as a runner, he averaged just over six yards per carry, gaining 1104 yards on just 180 carries, and scoring 28 rushing touchdowns while he was at it, and last season also assumed the goal line duties, making his yards per carry that much more impressive - and he also returned kicks for the 'Pack, averaging 20 yards per return.

Samuels is not as elusive as Dion Lewis is - very few runners actually are - but he compares favorably to Lewis in speed and toughness between the tackles, and has enough quickness to gain the edge as a runner and to carry the rock in a jailbreak screen scenario.

As mentioned, the 2018 draft class is not a very good one for tight ends, but it is excellent and deep in other areas where the Patriots are likely to be players - so it would be reasonable to expect that they would wait for value in the tight end class at the end of the second day and into the third day...



Wednesday, March 28, 2018

Patriots Mock Draft 1.0: Defense The Priority, But Offense Could Use Infusion Of Youth

The New England Patriots' defensive difficulties in the Super Bowl were simply a microcosm of the difficulties they experienced all season long.

The biggest culprits were their inability to cover running backs curling into the flat and setting the edge in the running game - and while health coupled with free agency acquisitions would likely solve the latter, it's going to take spending some major draft capital in the 2018 selection process in late April to solve the former.
BYU's Warner is a hybrid OLB/SS, perfect for the Big Nickel

The Patriots run a three-plus-one Big Nickel defensive alignment, meaning three down linemen plus one edge rushing outside linebacker up front, two run plugging linebackers and a strong safety on the second level, plus a normal complement of defensive backs in the secondary. The alignment requires three safeties: the strong safety reduces down into the box and acts as a weak side linebacker, who deals with running backs or tight ends in the pattern...

...while the free safety also reduces down into the double slot to help out with coverages. But the key is having a combination safety that can play the back end, solo. Called the "centerfielder", he should have sideline-to-sideline speed, take excellent angles and have great ball skills.

The Patriots have perhaps the best Big Nickel trio in the game because of strong safety Patrick Chung, free safety Devin McCourty and centerfielder Duron Harmon, but this season presents a unique set of challenges to the group as Chung and McCourty have topped the thirty-year barrier and Harmon decided to try and smuggle pot into a country that one would normally try to smuggle bud out of.

So Harmon will likely start the season on suspension, which means that either New England does something perverted like line up in a standard 4-3 or try out one of their many developmental safeties that they have stashed on the practice squad - so don't expect Belichick to pull a safety out of this draft, as he will just get by until Harmon returns.

Despite popular opinion to the contrary, the cornerback positions are well accounted for with Stephon Gilmore, Jason McCourty, Eric Rowe and Jonathan Jones, but the secondary, like the rest of the defense, fell victim to the lack of experienced depth in the linebacking corps - they weren't as horrible in the Super Bowl as the media would have one believe, but with Rowe entering his contract year and McCourty on the wrong side of thirty, if an elite talent falls to the Patriots in the second round, they would do well to add youth to their depth chart.

The defensive line has received an injection of talent, trading with Cleveland to bring in huge nose tackle Danny Shelton and plucking edge-setting defensive end Adrian Clayborn off the scrap pile in free agency - combined with the fact that red-shirt freshman Derek Rivers should be fully healed from his bout with a bum knee, both of the edges should be well accounted for, and no draft capital should be required.

On the other side of the ball, the offense lost two major playmakers in wide receiver Danny Amendola and running back Dion Lewis. Lewis is a singular talent who will be impossible to replace, though the Patriots have signed former Cincinnati Bengal Jeremy Hill and re-signed the versatile Rex Burkhead to join passing back James White to give them in three players what Lewis did himself...

...while the clutch Amendola's defection to the Dolphins should be mitigated somewhat by the return of Julian Edelman to health, though replacing his punt return ability has yet to be undertaken, aside from Belichick trading to Oakland for receiver Cordarrelle Patterson, whose main purpose in life is to return kicks and run gadget plays out of the backfield.

The line is nearly set, so long as former All Pro Marcus Cannon returns to form from an injury-marred 2017. The team re-signed tackle LaAdrian Waddle to assume the left tackle spot vacated by Nate Solder's defection, and the hope is that redshirt freshman Tony Garcia has fully recovered from a bout of blood clots in his lungs and is ready to develop behind Waddle.

But the elephant in the room to be addressed is finding a nearly ready for Prime Time quarterback to develop behind future Hall of Famer Tom Brady -and while the draft is loaded down with quality signal callers,Belichick is likely looking for someone who fits the mold of Brady as well as anyone could, but Brady will be nearly an impossible act to follow, so the pick has to be someone with broad shoulders and tons of confidence.

How does all of this translate in my little world? Check it out below:

Round 1 (31st overall) 

Leighton Vander Esch, ILB, Boise State (6' 4", 255)

A do-it all interior linebacker, Vander Esch is as athletically gifted as any interior linebacker playing today, but with the length and instincts to become an every down force. In the running game, his core strength belies his size and length and in the passing game is a condor in the middle zone, forcing quarterbacks eyes to the perimeter.

His presence in the middle would allow for Belichick to vary his schemes from game-to-game and even play-to-play, and would also allow for Hightower to play more weak side in traditional sets and would take a lot of heat off of Van Noy, and allow him to concentrate on being the strong side force he was in college.

If Vander Esch is plucked off the board before the Patriots select, there is always Alabama's Rashaan Evans or they can dip into the late second round for Indiana's Tegray Scales - but make no mistake, Vander Esch is the complete package.

Round 2 (11th/43rd overall) 

Isaiah Oliver, CB, Colorado (6' 0", 190)

A developmental corner that possesses a first round grade on many experts' draft boards due to enormous potential as a bump-and-run, lockdown corner. Excellent size and elite speed matched with an Albatross-like wingspan. There are holes in his game and could use a year behind Stephon Gilmore to learn the nuances of the pro game, but the sky is the limit.

Round 2 (31st/63rd overall) 

Luke Falk, QB, Washington State (6' 4", 225)

A Brady disciple, Falk is the prototypical Patriots' pocket passer with the size to see over the big uglies up front and excellent lateral mobility and pocket awareness to slide out of danger.

Like the recently departed Jimmy Garoppolo, Falk's eyes are tied to his feet, which is evident in film study as he goes through his entire progression, moving his feet and keeping his arm cocked and ready to fire. Though some question his arm strength, his skill set allows him to throw against man coverage outside the numbers with plenty of zip.

He does have a bit Jacoby Brissett in him as well, as he tends to throw off his back foot to try to avoid the sack - sometimes into tight coverage, but overall he is a solid prospect, and the fact that he tries to emulate Brady in his game doesn't hurt.

Round 3 (31st/95th overall) 

Fred Warner, LB/SS, Brigham Young (6' 3", 235)

Warner is a tweener - a coverage linebacker in college but perhaps a big-time strong safety in the pros, and in New England's Big Nickel alignment. In Foxborough, there isn't any difference between the two. Drafting Warner would pay dividends in two ways. First, he is a big, fast sideline-to-sideline entity who is fast enough to stick with backs in the pattern and big enough to avoid being punked by tight ends...

...while at the same time developing under the tutelage of Patrick Chung, who is aging and comes out of the game with injury more than he used to, but still has some pop to his game.

Round 4 (36th/136 overall) 

Royce Freeman, RB, Oregon (5' 11", 235)

Bigger back that a team can just strap on a feedbag and send him out to do his thing. Played in Oregon's zone-heavy running attack and has intriguing feel for cutback lanes - load to bring down when he gets up a head of steam. Freeman was used sparingly in the passing game until his senior season, when he showed some promise as a screen man, but must improve in pass pro to become a true three-down back.

Round 6 (36th/210 overall) 

Braden Smith, G, Auburn (6' 6", 305)

Built like a Mack Truck and knows how to use his frame. If selected, could push Joe Thuney for playing time coming out of camp. Nasty mauler in the running game who has spot duty potential at either tackle position, and potential as a sixth offensive lineman to knock would-be tacklers off their pegs on perimeter runs. A one-man street fight in pass pro, which makes up for some of his lack of reactive athleticism.

Round 7 (1st/219 overall)

Braxton Berrios, WR, Miami (5' 9", 186)

A Danny Amendola clone with requisite toughness and punt return ability makes him well worth the draft capital, and could surprise with a roster spot, usurping a veteran.