Cooks To Rams Deal A Lesson in "Belichickonomics"

When the New England Patriots dealt wide receiver Brandon Cooks to the Los Angeles Rams on Tuesday afternoon, it demonstrated the difference between the collective building of a winning culture and the chaos ingrained in a losing one.

The Belichick Temp Agency was again up front and center on Tuesday as the crafty defacto general manager of the Patriots swung a deal to dump the speedster and his $8.46 million cap hit on the Rams after just one season with New England. As the deal is finalized, the Patriots will have a little over $15 million in cap space, while the Rams are going to have to cut $3 million off of their current cap to fit Cooks into the fold.

Perhaps the Rams are taking a page out of Belichickian philosophy so far as acquiring temporary players as one year rentals, but their devil-may-care approach and flamboyant disregard for their long-term cap success is sure to land them on the bread lines as soon as 2019, while Belichick's fiscally temperate approach will ensure, once again, that his Patriots will trudge along like a rag-tag band of freedom fighters.

Such are the core beliefs of "Belichickonomics":

1. The market will set the price for free agents, and that a player's worth is determined not solely in what the player has accomplished in the past, but mostly in what age and experience tells us he will accomplish in the future;

Sometimes this backfires, mostly because teams like the Rams overpay and drive up the price tag for other like-free agents. Four of Belichick's now-former charges have gone on to where the turf is greener - cash wise - and all were over-paid. Left Tackle Nate Solder signed a record deal with the Giants, cornerback Malcolm Butler and running back Dion Lewis got huge deals from the Titans and Miami poached wide receiver Danny Amendola on a contract that must have his head still swimming.

In accordance with Belinomics, the market set their price tags so high that there was no way he was going to strap his salary cap to appease their financial demands. Such is the nature of free agency, though there are plenty of examples of players whom Belichick insisted try the open market to set their value, only to return with a solid but financially feasible offers - the latest of which includes Dont'a Hightower.

Some (many) call him cheap and/or heartless when it comes to retaining players, but he has a salary cap to attend to and he's not going to risk cap stability and the resultant rotational depth chart - nor should he. If the market sets a value on a player, he will come as close as he can without disrupting the cap balance. If it doesn't work, there's always:

2. Focus on players who have either been miscast or misused or under-utilized in their current employs, sign them at a salary commensurate with their tenured status and put them in position to bring out the best in their skill set - many times that turns into a win-win scenario for both the player and the team;

Chances are, players who have been miscast or misused or under-utilized are not on the minds of the suckers who dive into the free agent pool head-first, spending obscene amounts of money on the big name that will get their fan bases fired up and put butts in the stadium seats. Hey, NFL head coaches double as public relations mavens sometimes...

But once the initial feeding frenzy has subsided, piranhas like Belichick show up and make five or six or seven smaller-scale moves in a row, in the interim keeping the fan base in an absolute mad dog froth with their inactivity. These are the guys that find roles on the team that ensure two things: first that they will toil in relative anonymity unless they do something really good or something really bad and second, they will contribute enough for every team in the league to have good tape on them.

Rex Burkhead is an example, as are Marquis Flowers, Lawrence Guy, and Eric Lee - and it seems that Belichick always seems to land a handful of former 1st round draft picks in the haul, often for little or nothing because their former team had given up on them - a volatile lot for sure, as they are often boom-or-bust prospects, but Belichick has had enough success with them to keep doing it...

...and now oft-injured tight end Troy Niklas can be added to the mix, with an opportunity to thrive in a new system that uses tight ends differently than most.

3. The rookie salary cap is our friend. It is far less expensive to stock players through the draft and develop them in-house than to pay top free agents. The ones that perform well and are team-first both on the field and within the salary cap form the base core of the team - the others get washed out through attrition.

Of the 72 players currently on the roster, exactly half of them are Belichick draft picks and an additional dozen were originally undrafted rookie free agents picked up after the draft by the Dark Master - and a new class is on it's way with probably eight of them either making the team or the practice squad.

Belichick takes a lot of flack for his draft picks at times, and there probably is some truth to him missing in certain spots, especially with wide receivers, as his disastrous picks in the 2013 draft will attest - even though that same draft is considered successful on the defensive side of the ball. With that in mind, wide receiver is a position that Belichick usually addresses via trade and free agency...

...even so, 13 of the Patriots projected 22 starters are original Patriots' draft picks, two were acquired via trade and the rest were obtained in free agency, lending credence to the notion that Belichick does draft well, but many times will draft with a year or two of development in mind.

In trading Cooks, the Patriots add to their stockpile of top-end draft capital, which is important since the receiving corps and secondary are stocked with players either approaching or over the age of 30, and the quarterback position so aged that when Brady sliced his hand in practice before the AFC Championship game last January, dust came flying out instead of blood.

In contrast to Belichickonomics, the Rams are certainly saying all the right things, including some talk of working on a long-term extension for Cooks, but in the end, that might just be lip service for their fans, who apparently can't see the forest for the trees.

At the end of the 2018 season, Los Angeles will have four major free agent issues to address in addition to Cooks - those being for defensive tackles Aaron Donald and Nadamukong Suh, cornerback Marcus Peters and running back Todd Gurley - along with two more Pro Bowl quality players entering their contract years in defensive end Michael Brockers and cornerback Aqib Talib.

In using the franchise tag numbers for this season, which factors in the top five salaries for each position, Cooks could be in line for $16 million per year, Donald and Suh for $14 million a piece, Peters in the range of $15 million and Gurley, whose number will likely depend on what the Steelers end up giving Le'Veon Bell, should see $15 million at the least...

...which would add up to a top-heavy $74 million just for those five - a full 42% of their total cap space, with Brockers in line for $17 million if extended.

New England, on the other hand, by dumping Cooks has pared down their list of potential free agents to kicker Stephen Gostkowski, punter Ryan Allen, defensive end Trey Flowers, defensive tackles Malcom Brown and Danny Shelton, right guard Shaq Mason and wide receiver Chris Hogan - with Flowers really the only player who could command north of $8 million per year.

Gostkowski and Allen are most likely looking at $4 million and $3 million, respectively, Mason should net around $5 million and Hogan - who is on the wrong side of thirty - probably won't see much over what he's making now, which is close to $4 million. Brown and Shelton are both subject to fifth year options, which would pay them around $6 million each.

My math tells me that even if Flowers does agree to $8 million per season, that's just $36 million in cap space eaten up by seven players, or just 20% of the Patriots' cap space - and that doesn't count whatever the Patriots are going to roll over into 2019, which could be significant given that tight end Dwayne Allen and running back Mike Gillislee are likely to hit the waiver wire at some point this summer, freeing up another $8 million....

...the kicker being that the Patriots have loaded up on prime draft capital for which can be signed with a cap hit barely registering on the seismograph.

But now, what does Belichick do with his fortune in draft capital?

That remains to be seen, but with Cooks being dealt combined with the minor blip signings of depth players in subsequent moves, it appears that Belichick is done with his free agency splash, and is preparing for the draft.

Sneaky Good Amendola Clutch As Usual In Playoff Setting, But Has Been That Way All Season

The quarterback rolled to his right, escaping the collapsing pocket through a large gap created by his linemen who escorted the strong-side pass rush up and over the imaginary protective bubble, headed towards the line of scrimmage, where just beyond his receiver was engaged in a hand fight with the opposing cornerback...

...the receiver locking eyes with the quarterback as he pump-faked the ball once to cause the corner to react and break discipline on the receiver, who took advantage of the fake and sprinted towards the opposite sideline, raising his hand to give the quarterback a target over the big bodies converging on him...

Amendola, Gronk and Hogan celebrate a touchdown vs. Titans

And, yes.

When New England Patriots' wide receiver Danny Amendola saw Tom Brady breaking the pocket and chugging into the flat, he locked eyes with Brady who, by sheer familiarity with Amendola knew that he was going to sprint to the open flat on the opposite side. Brady stopped just short of the line of scrimmage, set his feet and fell backwards, lofting the ball over the outstretched arms of three defenders...

...delivering a perfect bucket throw that gained a first down and kept the Patriots' final scoring drive alive. Not that they needed more points, but once you get locked into a serious point scoring groove, the tendency is to push it as far as you can.

Amendola had other receptions in the 35-14 victory over the Titans - eleven to be exact - but that was most highlight reel worthy play of the bunch. That's because Amendola is anything but flashy - he doesn't possess elite speed, has all the size of a standard garden gnome and an injury history that reads like a human anatomy quiz...

...but it's worth noting that of those eleven receptions, seven went for first downs and five of those converted third downs - and you wouldn't know it unless you looked at the box scores the next morning.

Something else you probably wouldn't know is that including the performance against the Titans, Amendola is the second-leading receiver on the entire Patriots' roster with 72, behind only tight end Rob Gronkowski's 75 - of course, Gronkowski has a huge edge in yardage gained, but that's not the point.

The point is that Danny Amendola had a solid season. In fact, Amendola has the third most receptions in the league among teams remaining in the tournament, behind only Philly's Zach Ertz and Gronkowski.

Known for being especially clutch in the postseason and an afterthought during the regular season, Amendola teams with Gronkowski and running backs James White, Rex Burkhead and Dion Lewis to form the most formidable short game in the league, built particularly to take advantage of linebackers and safeties in isolation.

The versatility of the backs in particular make things challenging for opposing defensive coordinators - even for Todd Wash, the defensive coordinator for the upstart Jacksonville Jaguars who has guided his charges to being recognized as one of the top set of stoppers in the league and lead all of professional football in passing yards allowed.

That number is skewed some, however, when one considers that the Jaguars were thrown against only 509 times this season, which was fourth lowest mark in the league - why? Simply because their opponents had such success in rushing against them (4.3 yards per carry), so why test that excellent secondary?

With the backs that New England employs, defenses must be aware of the threat of the run, even on obvious passing downs, which gives the Patriots the advantage of fully calling upon their play action, led by the master of the play fake in Brady, whose wizardry and slight of hand can stagger a pass rusher and freeze a linebacker...

...and whose skill at looking off defenders only to burn them is unmatched, which can only help against the Jaguars' secondary, who are playoff neophytes despite their successes and regular season experience.

They get to deal with the likes of Brandin Cooks, Chris Hogan, Phillip Dorsett and Kenny Britt - not to mention Gronkowski up the seam - who will rotate in and out of the lineup like a hockey line changing out, taking turns running corners down the field and just plain running them down. And if Brady is on with the uptempo game, the trend has been that he can toy with an exhausted defense for the entire second half.

And when a defense allows a quarterback like Brady artistic expression, the entire world gets to see Brady playing like he's drawing up plays in the dirt - a true men among boys, as it were.

And that's where Amendola makes his bones, hauling in the tough circus catch or a laser beam to the sidelines like he did in the overtime session of last February's Super Bowl to extend the game-winning drive - that notion, married to his performance in last Saturday's victory over Tennessee, causing Gronkowski to label him Danny "Playoff" Amendola for his penchant for heroics when the lights are the brightest and the stage is the largest.

But it's really just Danny Amendola - or "Dola", if you prefer - because he's just as clutch in the regular season. Just no one really notices.

Patriots Ride Opportunistic Defense, Vertical Offense To Hammer Raiders

The New England Patriots are averaging a far and way league-high twenty-five first downs per game, which is testament to their move-the-chains, small-ball philosophy that has helped them win five Super Bowls in the Bill Belichick era.

On Sunday afternoon against the Oakland Raiders, the Patriots offense matched their season average in first downs. In every other way that counts, they were decidedly above average.

Quarterback Tom Brady threw for 339 yards and three touchdowns and the New England defense continued their renaissance tour with another strong outing as the Patriots collectively took the Oakland Raiders behind the woodshed for a nationally televised stomping before a bi-partisan crowd in Azteca Stadium in Mexico City, the 33-8 final score telling the entire story.

Well, almost.

The performance was classic Patriots: Brady shuffling around in the pocket to avoid pressure before finding his third or fourth read, running back Dion Lewis leading the team in touches and breaking ankles, and the defense giving up yard after yard after yard, but always making a play to deny their opponent in the red zone.

In fact, the New England defense solidified their spot among the top scoring defenses in the league, their 12.3 points per game average over the Patriots' six -game winning streak being the best mark in the National Football league over that time, legitimizing an amazing turnaround from the first four games of the season when they were the worst scoring defense in the league...

...while also lending credence to the apparent fact that the offense has rediscovered their scoring touch, topping thirty points for the second week in a row after entering their bye week on a four-game skid in which they averaged just 21 points per game.

Brady and the offense have been next to impossible to stop since the break, following up a win over their arch-nemesis Denver Broncos in which they scored on seven of ten possessions by scoring on seven of nine possessions against the Raiders, balancing their mode of operations between the aforementioned move-the-chains, traditionally methodical scheme and a suddenly potent quick-strike, vertical attack.

Both were on full display against the hapless Raiders' defense on Sunday.

Brady took his time in the leading the Patriots down the field for a touchdown on their first possession of the game, a 15-play, 87-yard job that took up half of the first quarter and sucked the will right out of the Oakland defense, then channeled his inner Daryl Lamonica "mad bomber" mode in connecting with Brandin Cooks for 52 yards to set up a second quarter score...

...following that up with a perfect 64-yard strike to Cooks to start the third quarter, this time the speed merchant easily outrunning double coverage to paydirt, effectively putting the game out of reach with nearly a full half of football left to play.

On the day, Cooks caught six balls for 149 yards and the touchdown for his best statistical day as a Patriot while Lewis handled the heavy lifting, running right into the heart of the Raiders' front seven for six yards a pop while also snagging four balls in the pattern for another twenty-eight.

Kicker Stephen Gostkowski even got in on the long-range, high-wire act by nailing a 62-yard field goal as time expired in the first half, breaking his own franchise record of 58 yards, then adding kicks of 51, 40 and 29 to slowly bury the Raiders.

Lewis and receiver Danny Amendola also caught scoring passes from Brady, Lewis taking a ball in the right flat and pirouetting to the inside and juking through heavy traffic for the first score of the game while Amendola got loose at the back of the end zone for the second score of the game.

Conversely, Oakland's Derek Carr suffered through a miserable afternoon of watching his throws bounce off of his receivers like so many pinballs, completing just 28 of his 49 offerings for 237 yards, the fourth straight game in which the Patriots' defense has held the opposing quarterback under 300 passing yards.

The one down side to the defense's day was their continued sieve-like run defense, as Marshawn Lynch rumbled for almost seven-yards per carry before Oakland fell behind by three scores and was forced to abandon the running game and turn to the unpredictable passing game to try and catch up in a hurry - and they did manage to move the ball, but drops, a Duron Harmon interception and a Marquis Flowers forced fumble ended each drive...

...only a sole garbage-time touchdown saving the Raiders from being shutout. In fact, if one were to eliminate the garbage-time scores against the Patriots' defense during the team's six-game winning streak, they would find that New England has yielded just eight points per game with the contest still in doubt.

That, combined with Brady's mastery of the offense has New England sitting pretty at 8-2, tied for the best record in the conference and extending their lead in the AFC East to three games over their fading division rivals - and while five of their last six games of the season come against division foes, including two a piece against both Buffalo and Miami, the Patriots seem destined for their ninth consecutive division title and are favorites to play in their seventh straight conference title game.

New England Patriots Midseason Forum - Part 2: Passing Game Revisiting 2015, But Has The Tools To Overcome Issues

When is the last time you saw a running back leading the New England Patriots offense in receptions?

The answer to that is 1977, when fullback Sam Cunningham caught 42 balls out of the backfield on a 9-5 team that missed the playoffs, barely eclipsing wide receiver Darryl Stingley for the team lead - and it makes sense, given that the play calling was run heavy by design, as it was a year before the NFL made rule changes that benefited the passing game to the point that it changed the face of the league.

Cunningham also eclipsed the thousand-yard plateau on the ground. But the thing is, back then running backs were expected to be heavily involved in the passing game, as it was far easier for a back to run a delayed pattern out of the backfield than it was for wide receivers and even tight ends to fight their way through cornerbacks and linebackers who could lay heavy contact on them without much notice from the referees.

Now, one could argue that it is far easier for receivers to break off the line and into their patterns, as corners, linebackers and safeties draw flags from the officials if they look at the receiver in the wrong tone past five yards down the field - not to mention that we see offensive pass interference calls at an alarming rate, congruent to those called on defenders.

For example, it seems that a game doesn't become official until tight end Rob Gronkowski is called for pass interference, and pick plays that used to be called rub routes before the wimpification of the National Football League often result in big plays being nullified.

In 1977, it was a fist fight between a receiver and a cornerback to gain separation, while today it's a dance contest and God help you if you touch a player on the opposing team more than five yards down the field - so there is significant risk in targeting receivers down the field...

...but it seems particularly risky for Patriots' receivers because when they lost Julian Edelman to a knee injury, they lost a throwback type player who wasn't afraid to mix it up and gained separation by being tougher than the defender.

That is one of the reasons for the recent trend in the league to bring draft and develop bigger receivers who can be more physical with cornerbacks, but even then when a ball falls incomplete, more often than not we will see a receiver do a fancy pirouette with his arms extended and palms facing towards the sky, barking at the officials because the defender make contact with him, no matter how significant the contact is.

The truth is the rules in the NFL, well-meaning as they are in trying to protect players from head injury while attempting to make the game faster and more exciting for the fans, have actually made the game slower and, honestly, more frustrating to watch - and it has gotten to the point that we will look to the bottom of our TV screens to make sure a yellow box with the word "flag" hasn't appeared to impact the play.

But while the rules have turned each passing play into an episode of Dancing With The Stars, many teams have mitigated that effect by turning to their running backs to compensate.

The Patriots have a deeper problem than a perceived lack of toughness, however.

Edelman is considered one of the toughest covers in the league, and his absence only serves to confirm that, as the Patriots' offense has struggled more and more as the season wears on and opposing defensive coordinators are seeing more and more film on what the Patriots have left in their outside arsenal.

Chris Hogan and Danny Amendola define toughness in their playing style, yet they lack the quick twitch / explosiveness combination to immediately separate in their routes the way Edelman does. Brandin Cooks and Phillip Dorsett have speed to burn, and play their best ball outside the numbers where their speed can compensate for their lack of physicality...

...while tight end Rob Gronkowski suffers from constant double teams and sometimes labors to get open while being mugged downfield - all of this assuming Brady has enough time to go through his progressions.

So what they have is not as important as what they don't have, which is Edelman's ability to gain immediate separation in his routes and provide quarterback Tom Brady the option to target Edelman on the "bang-bang" play that enabled Brady to get rid of the ball more quickly than anyone else in the league - and even more crucial than that is that the defense can concentrate more on the intermediate zone and make Brady hold the ball longer.

The same phenomenon occurred midway through 2015 when Edelman was lost for seven weeks with a broken bone in his foot. In those games, which covered the final seven of the regular season, the passing yards dipped by 90 yards per game and Brady took a nasty beating, but what really sent the offense into a tailspin from which they never recovered, was the loss of LeGarrette Blount with four games left to play.

Without the running game to have to defend, New England's opponents were able to concentrate solely on defending the passing game, which produced less than 200 yards per game. The Patriots were resilient enough to salvage two wins in that span, but with no running game in the playoffs, their defense carried them to the AFC Championship game and nearly to the Super Bowl.

The thing that prevented them from going to the Super Bowl? A lack of trust in the offense that caused curious play calling, going for it on fourth down deep in Denver Broncos' territory instead of kicking field goals late in the game, as Belichick admitted afterwards that he was trying to take the pressure off of his offense by going all four downs, not trusting that they had the gumption or the time to get down in the red area again to score any more points.

But in those games, Belichick and Brady didn't have a Cooks or a Hogan or a Lewis, nor a running game - all they had was a hobbled Amendola and an equally limited Gronkowski along with a recently activated Edelman and some street-signings, and ended up losing by two points.

It was during this stretch that Brady started targeting White, who has since turned into a major weapon in the passing game, last season breaking Kevin Faulk's team record for receptions and turned in a performance for the ages in the Super Bowl...

...a trend that has continued to flourish in 2017 as White is on pace for unprecedented numbers as the safety valve that Brady is missing in Edelman, with his target and reception numbers nearing what Edelman's have been, while the rest of the group are all languishing in mediocrity compared to their past production.

This is not to say that the effort is not there, just that the way the receiving corps is constructed limits their effectiveness, particularly in the red zone, when their skill sets married with coordinator Josh McDaniels' curious non-usage of what has to be one of the best running back situations in the league has led to meager point outputs in the last four games.

So the Patriots are more or less revisiting the 2015 season on offense, but with better personnel to work through losing Edelman with, and a great set of running backs that could take a lot of the heat off of Brady and the receivers if Belichick and McDaniels would just use them in the running game, which has been limited to just 39% of the offensive snaps this season.

Sadly, they haven't learned that lesson from two years ago, but Belichick is taking field goals when he has the chance to do so, and in doing so has been able to scratch out four consecutive wins - ugly wins, but victories nevertheless.

They have the tools and the talent to overcome their lack of quick-twitch ability in the pattern, and have four running backs who are versatile enough to take over some of Edelman's function, particularly White and Lewis, though a healthy Rex Burkhead may be they key to getting this passing game back on track, as he helps form an imposing trio of passing backs that could well start forcing defense to defend the entire field.

That would open up the intermediate zones enough to help Cooks, Amendola and Dorsett more of a factor down the field and also open up the seam for Gronkowski...

Texans Win The Battles, But Patriots Win The War In Classic Shootout

For sure, the New England Patriots had been in bigger holes than they faced with time running down on them on Sunday afternoon.

The Houston Texans' defense had dominated the Patriots for the entire second half at Gillette Stadium, forcing three New England punts and surrendering just seven points and 131 total yards to what was supposed to be the most prolific scoring offense in modern history, and after being sacked six times, hit five more and fumbling twice, Tom Brady walked out onto the turf an Gillette Stadium needing 75 yards and a touchdown to beat the determined and violent Texans.

But after a holding call made the task a little taller, Brady did what Brady does and has done so many times in his storied career, pulling an eight-play drive out of his magic helmet, turning a five point deficit into a 36-33 Patriots victory that may just be a defining moment for the struggling Minutemen from Foxborough.

Ordinarily, one wouldn't call an offense that averages thirty-three points per game a struggling unit, but coming into the game, Brady had yet to develop a chemistry with newly-acquired wide receiver Brandin Cooks, and the rest of his pass catchers had been dealing with a variety of maladies that had been holding the New England offense far below their potential efficiency...

...but Brady found Cooks twice on the final drive, including the 25-yard gamer with 23 seconds left to go and the Patriots' much-maligned defense made it hold up as safety Duron Harmon emerged with the ball from a scrum in the New England end zone after a last-gasp Hail Mary from Houston rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson just missed it's mark.

Just the fact that New England is not purring along on offense and still averaging 33 points per game is both scary and ridiculous at the same time, but it becomes downright terrifying when it is considered that the line hasn't gelled as yet and the backs are spending more time picking up rogue blitzers than handling the football.

That is a trend that continued on Sunday, as James White and Dion Lewis had just four receptions between them, a direct result of the revolving door style of the offensive tackles needing two of the Patriots' most dynamic skill players to chip pass rushers coming off the edge so that the tackles can catch up to them.

That takes a critical element out of the Patriots' offense, holding it back from realizing it's potential, and the opposition knows it - but the alternative is subjecting Brady to undue physical abuse, and besides, Brady has started to develop a bond with Cooks, for which the blocking of the backs has a direct impact.

Cooks' breakout performance combined with the standard fare from fellow wide receiver Chris Hogan (4 catches for 68 yards and two touchdowns) and tight end Rob Gronkowski (8/89/1) helped the Patriots score 36 points for the second straight week - his five-catch, 131 yard performance doubling his production for the season and his two scoring grabs represented the first and second of his short career in New England...

...while Danny Amendola continues to show up in the most critical of moments to move the chains, hauling in four balls for 48 yards, none bigger than a tough 25-yard snag over the middle on third-and-eighteen to set up Cooks' gamer one play later.

A see-saw affair in which the team combined to use every inch of the new carpeting at Gillette, the contest between the two familiar rivals was an entertaining and physical main event that saw two heavyweights batter each other with haymakers, staggering each other but each unable to put the other away.

Watson was fantastic in just his second start as a professional, the zip he put on his throws when he stepped up in the pocket equaled only by his amazing Houdini-like escapability that had the New England defense on their heels all game and frustrated the pass rushers who had their hands on him several times, but ended up with nothing but thin air.

"That dude is a slippery quarterback" defensive tackle Alan Branch mused after the game, "It was really frustrating as a defensive front just seeing that we had him right our grasp and not quite being able to finish him off."

The Texans scored in combinations to keep the Patriots on the ropes most of the contest, New England scoring off the ropes like mean counter-punchers - and just like in boxing, when the hungry young fighter gives the gnarled old veteran a sliver of an opening, the veteran landed the fatal blow late in the match.

The Patriots opened the game like they usually do, marching right down the field to take the early lead on a Brady shot to tight end Rob Gronkowski, but then Houston gained control with a Fairbairn field goal and a Deshaun Watson laser to Bruce Ellington at the goal line to take a 10-7 lead in the first quarter - then after Chris Hogan found the corner of the end zone to give the Patriots the lead in the second, the Texans countered with fury...

...a Jadeveon Clowney fumble recovery for a touchdown followed another Fairbairn field goal gave the lead back to the Texans before another Hogan touchdown reception from 47 yards out gave the Patriots a one-point lead going into the room.

New England seemed to give themselves a little breathing room when Brady hit Cooks on a 42-yard deep crosser, who then engaged his thrusters to easily outdistance the coverage, but Houston's rookie quarterback took control of the game pulling Patriots' defenders to the weak side time and again and throwing across his body to complete the improbable pass.

His ability to extend drives coupled with the burden he put on both the pass rushers to chase him down and the secondary to hold contain on his receivers took it's toll in the second half, as he led drives that ate up at least three-and-a-half minutes on each, resulting in a scoring toss to tight end Ryan Griffin in the back of the end zone and two more Fairbairn field goals to put New England in the position of needing Brady to come through at the last second.

In contrast, and as much to the detriment of the defense as Watson's magic act, the Patriots' offense generated drives of more than three minutes just once in the game, more often than not holding the ball for less than two minutes, putting the defense back on the field without much of a rest.

"We (the offense) didn't do much there in the fourth quarter." Brady admitted in his post-game presser, "the defense kept holding them to a field goal and gave us just enough time."

So it is to the defense's credit that they found the intestinal fortitude to stop Texans' running back Lamar Miller short of the line to gain on the New England 18 - against a three-receiver set, no less - to force a field goal and give the ball back to Brady and the offense with a little over two minutes to play and with one time out remaining - and Brady rewarded them with a drive for the ages.

No need to elaborate further, as the old gunslinger converted on third-and-long twice to extend the final drive, eventually hitting Cooks for the toe-tapping gamer with an absolute rocket to fit the ball into the tightest of windows...

...and what great Patriots' comeback would be complete without Harmon coming down with a game-sealing interception in the end zone?

Brady channeled his inner John Lennon after the game stating, "I believe that love is the greatest thing we have. It overcomes a lot." - and so does practicing and focusing on situational football, because it was that which helped the Patriots to overcome the upstart Texans, who with sheer talent and a slippery quarterback won a lot of individual battles, but eventually lost the war.

Because, it's Tom Brady and he loves his teammates.

And because he's pretty good at what he does.

Replacing Edelman: Next Man Up Should Read "Next Men Up"...

When the New England Patriots signed unrestricted free agent Danny Amendola away from the then-St. Louis Rams, the idea was to replace an increasingly garrulous Wes Welker, though that spot in the offense was instead overtaken by Julian Edelman.

Edelman, a former 2009 seventh-round draft pick who had played quarterback for Kent State, had been on the upswing in the season leading up to Welker's departure - and as the story goes, and as is caught on mic'd up video after Edelman scored on a weaving punt return,  prompting Patriots' head ball coach Bill Belichick to ask Welker if he had ever heard of a baseball player named Wally Pipp.

Belichick ambled up to Welker after the score and when he asked Welker about Pipp, he shook his head and replied that he didn't.

It is important to note that Welker wasn't playing that day because he told the trainers that he didn't feel well, yet he was all over the sidelines, chatting it up with teammates during a contest with the Philadelphia Eagles, and when Belichick caught up with him, he was obviously feeling a lot better.

"Wally Pipp played first base before Lou Gehrig" Belichick grinned without recounting the fact that Pipp went to team trainers for a couple of aspirin for a headache, and asked to be left out of the New York Yankees' lineup one afternoon, and the trainer responded for him to go ahead and take the day off and "let's give that kid Gehrig a shot today.". then Yankees manager Miller Huggins inserted Gehrig into the lineup and the rest, as they say is history.

Pipp was waived after that season, but Welker remained on the Patriots as an elite slot receiver for another three seasons, but what Belichick said to him on the sidelines began a volatile and contentious relationship between he and Welker.

"That might be a punt return story" Belichick continued with Welker on the sidelines after Edelman's return for the touchdown in reference to the Pipp/Gehrig tale, to which Welker replied, "Hey he can have it, man."

Belichick shook his head sadly then bellowed sarcastically, "Way to compete, way to compete."

So when Welker's contract came up for renewal, Belichick was never going to allow that to happen as he had Amendola in town on the night before the start of free agency, poised to take a physical and sign a contract once 4:00pm rolled around.

The moral to the story? Availability, dependability and effort are everything to Belichick, so when the start of the 2013 season started for the Patriots in Buffalo and Amendola suffered a complete tear of his adductor muscle just minutes into the game, Edelman took his place and the rest, as they say (again), is history.

The tables have turned in 2017, with Edelman suffering a complete tear of his ACL, while Amendola is completely healthy for the first time in four seasons in Foxborough.

Amendola's extensive injury history is actually more a matter of the way he has performed his job than anything else, which was with reckless abandon and having little regard for his own safety - but Amendola has mellowed with age and experience and as a result of the adductor tear, which lingered for three years as he had surgery to repair the tear and afterwards he and team had to manage recovery time with part-time action.

But if Amendola is completely healthy and if he's learned to play the game in a more measured and thoughtful way, would he be able to replace Edelman the way he was originally signed to replace Wally Pipp - er, um, Wes Welker?

To answer that question righteously, we need to explore Amendola's medical history.

In 2011, which was his third season in the league, Amendola tore his triceps in the season opener and was lost for the entire season. and then in 2012 he dislocated his clavicle, which nearly killed him as the bone went inward instead of outward, narrowly avoiding his aorta - and then came the groin tear in the 2013 season opener with the Patriots.

As most of his injury history suggests issues with his muscles tearing, it would make sense that part of managing Amendola and preserving his health lies in the training staff keeping his muscles loose and with extended stretching before any competitive activity - and particularly at the start of a season - because when healthy and playing, Amendola is just as capable as Edelman of being the go-to guy when the Patriots really need a play.

And in that respect, Amendola is as clutch as they come - and especially when the moment is biggest and lights are the brightest.

The most recent example of this came last season, when Amendola caught 23 balls for 243 yards (10.6 yards per catch) which, if taken at face value doesn't seem like much, but when you consider that of his 23 catches, nine went for a first down and four went for a touchdown, that presents the fact that 57% of the time that Amendola caught a ball, it either moved the chains or put points on the board...

...but in the playoffs, and in particularly the Super Bowl, when Amendola caught eight balls for 78 yards, a touchdown, the game-tying two point conversion and three first downs - one of those on a critical fourth down conversion on the Patriots' first touchdown drive -  it becomes clear that Amendola and Edelman are cut from the same cloth.

The fact that the Patriots use Amendola mostly in have-to-have-it situations speaks volumes as to his dependability and the chemistry he has with quarterback Tom Brady - and with that said and being undeniable, how exactly does Amendola fit into the equation for buffering the loss of Edelman's production?

With the amount of talent on the pass catching depth charts in New England, he certainly will not have to do it alone, but it goes without saying that Brady and the coaching staff trust Amendola implicitly - but as they proved last season, they also trust Chris Hogan, Malcolm Mitchell and Rob Gronkowski, and now have former New Orleans speedster Brandin Cooks in the fold.

A very impressive list, indeed, so it's not beyond the realm of imagination that Amendola will continue his role as a late-down specialist and perhaps see an uptick in his overall production which could rival his 2015 season when he hauled in 65 balls - almost triple what he caught in 2016.

But as mentioned before, the burden for replacing Edelman's production doesn't lie solely with Amendola and, truthfully, the players that could truly take on a lot of the burden of filling Edelman's shoes in 2017 are running backs James White and Dion Lewis.

Very quietly and certainly under the radar, White put together the best receiving year for a Patriots' back in the history of the franchise, catching 60 balls - two more than Kevin Faulk did in 2008 and one more than Shane Vereen in 2014 - for 551 yards and five scores, then added 18 receptions for 137 yards and two more touchdowns, giving him 78 receptions for nearly 700 yards and seven scores...

...while Lewis looks to be his old self again like he was in 2015 before tearing his ACL.  That season he caught an astounding 36 balls in seven games for 388 yards and two touchdowns - which would have averaged out to 82 balls for 900 yards.

Of course, this is all speculation.  Perhaps the offense falls apart like it did at the end of 2015 when the Patriots entered the post-season with a still-gimpy trio of Edelman, Amendola and Gronkowski and with no running game to speak of and Brady takes a retirement-inducing flogging from opposing defenses - or maybe everyone stays healthy and the Patriots become a 2007-esque juggernaut that issues the beatings to the defenses.

If the latter occurs, the players on the roster won't have to do do much more than they have already proven they can do to reach that level, as the graph above will attest.  In 2007, Brady competed 403 passes for 4,731 yards and an NFL record 50 touchdowns.

So as a team, the Patriots should be able to make up for Edelman's lost production without batting an eye otherwise.

All they have to do, is do their job.

With Cooks, Fantasy Equals Reality

In the world of situation football, Brandin Cooks is a pawn.

When the New England Patriots traded their top draft pick to the New Orleans Saints for the three-year NFL veteran, many had visions of a sugar plumb named Randy Moss running through their heads, with the notion of a quick-strike vertical game that would render even the best cornerbacks in the league a staggering shell of themselves.

Cooks in camp with Amendola (80) and Edelman

And why not?  After all, Cook does run a sub-4.4 forty yard dash and has proven time and again that he can gain separation and outrun defenders like a gazelle running from a hungry lioness, and when you combine that kind of speed with sure hands and quick feet to win off of the line of scrimmage, there is every reason to believe that the Patriots do have the vertical game that can take the top off of any defense.

So why isn't Cooks listed on the fantasy football sites as a top ten wide receiver?

Fantasy football sites are our very best source of information on professional football players, because they weigh a player's athletic gifts and combine that with the talent around them and the overall scheme of an offense, which gives them a pretty good idea on how to project the production of  an individual player.

So it's not going to surprise anyone to hear that Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski are the top fantasy quarterback and tight end, respectively, in the National Football League, given that Brady leads an offense that has as much firepower as an in the game, and that Gronkowski is the biggest matchup nightmare in the pattern.

But Cooks isn't listed among them - in fact, not even in the top ten of receivers - but there are some very good reasons for that.

First of all, Cooks isn't Moss no matter how much fans want him to be.  There will probably not be another player in our lifetime with the combination of size, speed, hands and instincts that Moss possessed.  When he played with in New England, Patriots fans were treated to a showcase of everything Moss was, and is probably the only player in the world of football that could make Brady a better quarterback...

...as all Brady had to do was to put the ball up in the air and Moss would find a way to run underneath it, making the entire exchange appear effortless - as if Brady were throwing Moss open which, in essence, he was.  Many feel that just because Bob Kraft mentioned Cooks in the same breath as Randy Moss that they should expect the same production - but that's a lot to lay on a diminutive slot receiver.

Secondly, Cooks plays on a roster so loaded with skill position players that he is realistically the second or third option in the pattern, depending on the play call.

The offense revolves around Gronkowski, whose size/strength/speed ratio demands double coverage - and even then it's a crap shoot for defenders, who are reduced to going after the man-child's knees to even their odds of taking him down.  Then there's Julian Edelman, who has the quickest feet of any receiver in the game and is known league wide as the toughest cover in football...

...to take nothing away from Chris Hogan, Malcolm Mitchell or the clutch Danny Amendola, while on some plays, Brady will go to his backs first, as James White and Dion Lewis are most dangerous passing back tandem in the league.

Last, but certainly not least, is the fact that head ball coach Bill Belichick prefers a ball-control, move-the-chains, methodical offense that grinds opposing defenses into the dirt and saps their will to compete.  In that mindset, Cooks is an entity that will more often than not be used in the slot to take advantage of his elite quickness and yards after the catch ability to move the chains.

All one has to do is look at a replay of Super Bowl 51 to see how effective that philosophy works when a team sticks to it and doesn't panic.

In fact, coming out of college. most scouts saw Cooks as a slot receiver with some utility as a boundary receiver due to his balance and uncanny ability to gain immediate separation and run away from the defender. If, however, they find themselves in a position where they need to become vertical, say at the end of the half or the end of the game where they are behind, it's nice to know that they have the capability to do so, and do it right.

So, in regard to Brandon Cooks, what fantasy football sites believe is what the reality of his situation is.

Yes, he's got speed to burn and has been lighting up camp.  Yes, he developed a bond with Brady and they are clicking.  But so has Brady and Gronkowski, Brady and Edelman, Brady and White, etc., etc., etc., but the Patriots way is about leaving your individuality locked in the trunk of your car and embracing the team.

This is not to say that Cooks won't have games where he's the main attraction, because in a game plan offense, a star is born on any given Sunday and Cooks is bound to have a tremendous impact - but how his presence impacts the team could be in any number of capacities ranging from playing catch with Brady in the intermediate zone to playing decoy to clear out the safeties for another player...

...because truth be known, to use a weapon like Cooks as just a vertical threat to take the top off a defense is limiting what he can do for any individual game plan, and is a waste of resources.

Patriots' Super Bowl Win, Active Offseason Set Stage For Continued Success On Offense

In early February of this year, the entire world saw a display of emotion that is rarely, if ever, offered from a certain coach and a certain quarterback for a certain professional football team that is otherwise universally recognized as a cold and heartless corporation that proactively fires people before they outlive their usefulness...

...yet, on the other hand, they reach out to aging veterans and offer them part-time work, but at a fraction of what they have made elsewhere.  Some may consider their tactics flippant and cheap, but in a world where success is measured not in dollars made, but in quotas reached, only the organization that manufactures one large silver trophy is considered the best of the best.

And manufacturing trophies is exactly what the New England Patriots do.

Cooks taking on Stephon Gilmore

Sometimes they reach their quota, as they have two of the past three seasons and five times in the past decade and a half, and sometimes they don't, but the thing about the Patriots is that they are always in the mix at the end, something appreciated by their fans and the aforementioned aging veteran - enough so that the phenomenon is given the moniker, the Patriots Way.

Four years ago at about this point of the summer, I wrote that the Patriots' Way doesn't mean perfection, it means doing your best and striving to reach the zenith of your profession, putting aside self-edification - be it monetarily or psychologically - and working in tandem with 52 other guys of the same mindset in order to achieve a common goal.

That mindset produces a "Us Against The World"attitude for 53 different reasons, an attitude that eschews personal gain and platitudes - which is important to understand as the Patriots open training camp in earnest on Thursday morning to start the competitive phase of the team building process, a process that has plenty going on behind the scenes.

The way that the NFL has incrementally changed rules to benefit flashy offenses to make the game more exciting - which is understandable in that it puts butts in seats to watch the games - runs against the grain in post-millennial Foxborough, and because of that, Patriots' coach Bill Belichick has initiated a renaissance of sorts.

It's not anything new, as Belichick has stayed faithful to the offensive and defensive schemes that he came to New England with, and are similar in name to the approach that the Patriots instituted under Chuck Fairbanks more than four decades ago, except instead of calling the offensive blueprint the Erhardt-Perkins offense - a run-heavy scheme with a motto of "pass to score, run to win"...

Belichick calls the Erhardt-Perkins system, a concept-based, pass-heavy approach in which the play calls are a single word that tells the five "skill position" players what routes are to be run and where players are to line up, and then adjusted at the line of scrimmage through, again, one-word verbiage or hand signals, which sets in motion a series of resets to manufacture mismatches against the defense.

With the base call and the options that Brady has at his disposal to adjust at the line, there are literally dozens of different formation options that just one word can conjure.  Those who watched the way that the Patriots' offense dismantled the Atlanta Falcons' defense in the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl witnessed the concept system running at max efficiency...

...working quickly down the field with deliberate intent, moving the chains in 11 personnel (one tight end, one running back) with a short rotation of wide receivers Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan, Danny Amendola and rookie Malcolm Mitchell, so that when the Patriots made a personnel change, it was just to rotate Amendola and Mitchell.

Brady and the New England offense didn't miss a beat, as tight end Martellus Bennett and running back James White took turns picking up rogue blitzers to give Brady time to find his guys down the field - but when either of them found themselves with the ball, it was pure magic.

Down 28-3 midway through the third quarter, the Patriots produced a full game's worth of yardage and points in the space of about 20 minutes, yet their longest play was just a 25 yard safety valve to Bennett on the right sideline. In that span, the Patriots ran 49 plays and ground out an unbelievable 19 first downs - and before you knew what had happened, the Patriots had put up 31 unanswered points to win the title.

It happens in spurts like that for New England.

What we'll be paying close attention to on offense, and some initial observations:

Conor McDermott vs. The Field

A former "Mr. Basketball" in his home state of Tennessee and was a finalist for the McDonald's All American team as a high school senior, but chose football as his one true path to professional sports and went to UCLA after spending a year in a prep school while healing from a separated shoulder.

McDermott is essentially the same size as left tackle Nate Solder at a gigantic 6 ' 8" and 310 pounds and with his basketball background has a type of slide-step and power-to-the-hoop athleticism that has to have line coach Dante Scarnecchia licking his chops in anticipation of turning the kid into a pro.

Many feel that he needs a redshirt year in 2017, working closely with the strength and conditioning staff, but the team has to be hoping that he shows signs of being ready to contribute rather than expose him to waivers on the way to the practice squad, because with his athleticism, he'll probably not clear waivers and the Patriots would lose him.

Fellow rookie tackle Antonio Garcia also has a big-time basketball background, and also needs time to turn into a profession, but his nastiness and tenacity often overcomes his size limitations (6' 6", 300) and his lack of a heavy anchor.  The ideal situation for New England would be for both of them to serve as swing tackles for the season.

More than at camp, their tests will come with major playing time in the preseason


Brandin Cooks' route tree

If the first day of camp is any indication at all, Cooks has integrated himself into the Patriots way of doing things and looks comfortable on the outside and in the slot.  Brady hit the speedster for a 30 yard score against double coverage and scored again on an end around, displaying plenty of speed on both.

The biggest worry that Patriots' fans have to have when a new pass catcher comes in is whether or not they can pick up the nuances of the concept-based offense, as many have washed out - but Cooks seems to be on the same page at this point in his development, which is testament to his intelligence and work ethic.

Expect to see him all over the formation, as he has said that his best destiny includes working from the slot, which is where he made the majority of his bones in college.

Mike Gillislee and Rex Burkhead rotation

While we won't be able to see the backs in all their glory until pads go on this Saturday, Gillislee showed nice burst through the hole and good hands out of the backfield, as did Burkhead.  Dion Lewis surprised a bit with his electric, video game like moves in the return game...

...we'll come back to this subject on Saturday.

No kid gloves for Gronkowski, but focus on Allen

Rob Gronkowski may be 100% for the first time in years after missing most of last season after having surgery to repair a disc in his back, but don't expect to see Belichick take it easy on Gronkowski, though some well-placed "Gronk Days" could be in the offing when the monstrous man-child takes some time to repair.

So the focus will be on newcomer Dwayne Allen, who has the opportunity to make Belichick's job a lot easier at cutdown day with a solid camp.  Allen is known for his ability to shield off defenders and for his soft hands, but has struggled in OTA's and minicamp with both.

It could be that Allen is dealing with a confidence issue after losing his job in Indianapolis to undrafted free agent Jack Doyle midway through last season, so don't be surprised to see all of the Patriots quarterbacks test him early and often in an attempt to build up his confidence.  He's not going to be cut - not with a dead money hit of $4.5 million hanging on him, so the Patriots have a lot to lose if they can't build this cat up.

But on the first day of camp, Allen showed no signs of the hands of stone that he displayed in OTA's and mincamp - an excellent sign, as having a complementary talent to offset Gronkowski means just one more way for the Patriots to expose opposing defenses.

Bolder Predictions: A Baker's Dozen Of Patriots' Prognostications

Making bold predictions is not my thing.

Though when asked by a co-worker about the Patriots' chances at making the playoffs in 2001, I said that they would win 11 games and win the Super Bowl.  Of course, I was just trying to get the guy away from me, but I tend to do my best work when faced with a little adversity.

I haven't been right on too many things since - going 0-15 in predicting head ball coach Bill Belichick's top draft choice each season until I pulled off the Derek Rivers prediction a couple of months back - so anything I predict shouldn't be taken too seriously - or should it?

Gronkowski and MVP candidate?

Despite my flaws in predicting draft picks, my success rate increases exponentially when it comes to what the roster will look like once camp breaks, and that's what this is all about.

Some of the following predictions are bold, some are weak, some are lame and some are moronic, but I believe my logic is sound, and as Mr. Spock of Star Trek fame was fond of saying, logic is but the beginning of wisdom.  Does that mean these conclusions make me wise?  Hardly, but let's wait until the season concludes before we tackle that question...

1. Rob Ninkovich and Jordan Richards will be released

It's a numbers game for Ninkovich, and just a miscue on Richards.  Anyone who was actually paying attention when the Falcons scored 21 points on the Patriots' defense in Super Bowl 51 would have had to notice that Ninkovich was in coverage on the scoring player in two of those instances, and was badly overmatched. Coincidence that the Falcons were so much faster on offense than the Patriots were on defense?  Perhaps, but the greybeard warrior was badly beaten on both scores and has worn down to where he could now be a liability...

...while Richards was simply a bad reach for a team that was seeking an eventual successor to Patrick Chung at strong safety - which brings us to our next prediction:

2. Belichick will keep at least one undrafted safety

New England values safeties more than most teams, as they wouldn't be able to run their three-safety, Big Nickel alignment without at least three starting quality blue liners.  Despite the amendment to Chung's contract in which he can earn an additional $900k in incentives, the team is almost in desperation mode to find his eventual replacement, and there is at least one undrafted player who would be a perfect developmental fit.

Former Minnesota Gopher Damarius Travis is a pure box safety with the size (6' 2", 215) to contribute in run defense and the cover skills to handle tight ends underneath while Richmond's David Jones is a virtual Duron Harmon clone with the sideline-to-sideline lateral movement and impressive ball skills to develop into a quality ball hawk.  Look for Travis to make the roster with Jones stashed away on the practice squad.

3. Patriots' defense will morph into a 3-4 base front

Of course, the nickel is the Patriots' primary alignment as they are in either a standard or Big Nickel look on three-quarters of their defensive snaps, but if one were to label them in a conventional base, the Fairbanks-Bullough 3-4 alignment is what they have the personnel to run. Belichick was busy this offseason collecting defensive linemen whose skill set translates to five-technique defensive ends, and combined with the sheer number of versatile linebackers on the roster, it all translates to three-man fronts.

New England drafted Arkansas defensive end Deatrich Wise and brought in five-tech ends Lawrence Guy from Baltimore and Kony Ealy from Carolina to team with incumbents Alan Branch, Woodrow Hamilton and rising star Trey Flowers - and have a solid base at nose tackle with a rotation of Malcom Brown and Vincent Valentine.  The linebackers will be supplemented in their rotation with box safeties and they drafted Youngstown State's Derek Rivers to be worked into a strong-side linebacker spot formerly held by Jamie Collins.

4. Patriots offensive line will become a top five unit

If there is a concern on the roster, it is the lack of depth on the interior of the Patriots' offensive line - but given health, the starters are young fire-pissers who should solidify the line for a good length of time, as Shaq Mason is a dominating run blocker who pairs with All Pro right tackle Marcus Cannon to present a formidable strong side presence, David Andrews has evolved into one of the better centers in the league and Joe Thuney should make the requisite second-year jump after an up-and-down year at left guard.

The only real question mark is at left tackle, where Nate Solder has had some injury concerns in the past, and will probably preclude him from signing a long-term contract with the team going forward - which is why Belichick drafted Troy's Antonio Garcia and UCLA's Conor McDermott, and which brings us to...

5. Garcia will assume swing tackle role, Fleming and Waddle will be cut

Garcia is the long-term solution at left tackle but will see most of his action this season as a swing tackle, which means that Cam Fleming and LaAdrian Waddle will be out of a job come September, particularly if McDermott turns out to be more than what his draft profile suggests.

Both were quality blind side protectors in college and have basketball backgrounds - but Garcia is the nasty, play-through-the-whistle type with a fluid kick slide that line coaches dream about, and he should be ready to take over for Solder in 2018 while contributing as a sixth offensive lineman this season.  McDermott is a force as a pulling wham blocker in the running game but doesn't (yet) have the transitional skill nor muscular base to hold up in the trenches as a pro, but has a vicious cut block that will serve him well as a swing tackle both this season and next.

6. Belichick will trade, release or otherwise move Jacoby Brissett

Is one little roster spot that important to the Patriots?  Given the volume of talent on both sides of the ball, one roster spot could mean the difference between being able to develop a player on the roster, or losing him to another team.

Last season was the first time in five years that New England had carried three quarterbacks on the roster, and were fine in doing so as they were able to keep most of their developmental prospects, but this season, with so much talent going at least two-deep on the depth chart at just about every position - including quarterback - the Patriots have put themselves in a position where they are going to have to decide whether it is more important to carry three quarterbacks, or to use the roster spot on a prospect elsewhere.

It may come down to Brissett making the 53-man roster and being dealt sometime before the trade deadline.

7. Running backs will produce over 3000 total yards

The last time the New England Patriots had four running backs capable of producing eye-popping numbers individually was in 1978, the season that the Patriots set a rushing record of 3,165 yards that stands to this day - with Sam Cunningham leading that record-setting backfield that included Andy Johnson, Horace Ivory and Don Calhoun, and had substantial help from quarterback Steve Grogan.

This is not to say that the players that populate the Patriots' backfield nearly four decades later are going to challenge that '78 squad for a record, but they are more than capable of contributing more than 3,000 yards from scrimmage to what may well be a combined record-setting New England offense.

Mike Gillislee and Rex Burkhead should be the leaders in the ground game while James White and Dion Lewis will be the primary passing backs - but all of them are capable of lending a hand in both facets of the offensive production.  Judging just from past production, the Patriots should be able to top 2,000 yards on the ground and also clear 1,000 yards through the air, but that all depends on balanced play calling...

8. Offense will be balanced between run and pass, perhaps even be run-heavy

Last season, the Patriots' offense enjoyed balance in their play calling, and the result was a career season for running back LeGarrette Blount and passing back James White, not to mention an offense that could not be stopped when the game was on the line.

It is especially important to feature balance in the offense as quarterback Tom Brady enters his golden years and probably shouldn't take the kind of pounding that being pass-heavy would subject him to. Besides, the Patriots' offensive philosophy - known universally as the Erhardt-Perkins scheme - requires that they "pass to score, then run to win", which in lay terms means that they will use the passing game to gain a lead and then run the ball to kill the clock.

But it's more than that.  The Patriots proved during the Super Bowl that the best way to wear down a defense is to keep them on the field for a protracted amount of time, moving the chains at a snail's pace, which means the short passing game and power running game - and New England foes are bound to see plenty of both.

9. Cooks will work primarily out of the slot

New receiver Brandin Cooks has an extra gear that most pass catchers do not possess.  Sure, he has straight-line speed to leave a vapor trail, but the diminutive Cooks says that his best destiny is coming out of the slot where he can engage that second gear to leave nickel backs eating dust.

"This is an offense that guys do a bunch of different things and I'm looking forward to doing some things that I didn't necessarily have to do in New Orleans" Cooks said in his initial press conference with the Boston media, then qualified his statement by adding, "as far as playing from the slot, I definitely feel that I can do that at a high level."

Ok, so Cooks playing out of the slot isn't necessarily a bold prediction, but it is a departure from what he encountered in New Orleans, where he was the top outside threat in their high flying circus, though coming out of Oregon State he was projected to be an elite slot guy due to his fearlessness in the tall trees and his ability to separate after the catch - and with New England well stocked with outside-the-numbers, downfield pass catchers in Malcolm Mitchell and Chris Hogan, expect to see Cooks blazing trails from the slot.

10. Gronkowski will be named NFL MVP

Yes, I know that there's some scrub named Brady who will be vying for the same award, but with Gronkowski entering 2017 fully healthy and ready for camp, we are about to witness something magical from the four-time All Pro tight end.

Gronk has played in all 16 games in a season just twice in seven seasons, and that was in his rookie and sophomore seasons, the latter in which he obliterated the league's single-season records for receiving yards (1,327) and touchdowns (18) and was named to his first All Pro team.  His 14.7 yards per reception has increased incrementally since then, cresting at an absurd 21.6 last season before going down with back issues.

He was able to do those things because he is as gifted and as natural a tight end as the game has ever seen, and also had the benefit of a certain pair of wide receivers by the names Moss and Welker to take a lot of heat off of him - but at that point in his career, he was primarily a crosser in the second level, but now has evolved into an extraordinary seam threat...

...and with names such as Edelman, Hogan, Mitchell and Cooks - not to mention a dynamic running game - to occupy defenders, teams may have to resort to (gulp!) leaving Gronkowski to single coverage at times.  And if you base his production anywhere close to what he averaged last season before his injury, we could be looking at a 2,000 yard season for Gronkowski.

Far-fetched?  Maybe, but wouldn't it be cool?

11. Garoppolo will receive major extension

Jimmy Garoppolo and Malcolm Butler are both scheduled for unrestricted free agency next March, and are also expected to be two of the top prizes to be had in said free agency.  The Patriots would do well to ensure neither player makes it that far.

Including the amount of cap space the team will be able to roll over into 2018 combined with the expected annual increase in the cap ceiling and space created by expiring contracts, the Patriots will enter the new league year with upwards of $60 million to play around with - plenty of capital to invest in the future of the quarterback position, as securing Jimmy Clipboard's status must be top priority.

Given that Brady wants to play another couple of seasons, the extension would have to be heavy on immediate money in the way of a franchise record-setting signing bonus, with reasonable annual salaries to offset the bonus and spread across multiple seasons - with, of course, some incentive language that provides for incremental increases in salary for him in the event he ends up with major playing time due to a Brady injury.

Butler may be a tougher signing in that he stands to absolutely break the bank next offseason and Belichick may find it too much to have a quarter of his salary cap tied up in cornerbacks, and it is unclear whether the snafu with New Orleans this offseason would affect Butler's decision-making skills if it came to being offered a deal featuring a hometown discount.  Still, there is plenty of cap space to do both deals plus retain core role players.

12. Butler becomes chess piece in secondary

The primary reason that Belichick splurged on former Buffalo Bills cornerback Stephon Gilmore in free agency is that he needed greater size than what he currently had, given the trend of receivers getting bigger, plus he had no clue whether he would still have Butler on the roster come September.

So now the Patriots have what would have to be considered a very good problem to have - what with Gilmore and emerging number-two corner Eric Rowe standing 6' 1", they now have two long press corners that should be able to match up with a foe's larger receivers, Butler can essentially become a chess piece to be positioned to take advantage of any mismatches.

In Belichick's game plan defense, many of his players are movable, and Butler has demonstrated his mettle and toughness time and again against players big and small, and is versatile enough to play press, off man and zone, no matter if he is outside or in the slot - a place that he could end up seeing a lot of, and a scenario that presents Butler with an opportunity to prove to 31 other general managers that he is indeed one of the league's elite.

That would backfire on Belichick, because if Butler has another solid year, someone is going to make him a very rich man.

13. Rivers assumes and excels in the "Collins" role

Derek Rivers played defensive end at Youngstown State and became one of the best pass rushers in Division II - but at 6' 4" and only 250 pounds, Rivers is not the prototypical size for an NFL defensive end.  And while we may see him with his hand in the dirt on occasion, it is more likely that Belichick envisions a role for him not unlike what he envisioned for Jamie Collins coming out of college.

Collins' draft projection is similar in many ways to Rivers' and both were considered as 3-4 rush linebackers.  Like Collins, Rivers will likely be brought along slowly, then unleashed towards the end of the season.  He excels at stringing out plays to the edge and has a non-stop motor - and maybe it's not fair to him to hoist that kind of reputation to reach for, but he's similar athlete.

Patriots' Offseason Moves Confirm Tenets Of Offensive Philosophy

You can't stop them, you can only hope to contain them.

That particular axiom was made popular by ESPN's Dan Patrick during his heyday as the anchor of the network's popular nightly SportsCenter broadcasts, but it's roots go back as far as recorded time itself.  Some attribute it to Sun Tsu's Art of War, while others consider it a Machiavellian utterance and still others say it was an appropriate description of basketball's Wilt Chamberlain...

...but Sun Tsu didn't mince words like that and Machiavelli was a brutal dictator who plagiarized the Chinese general's treatise into his own twisted variant - the saying did show up in a couple of articles geared towards Chamberlain's dominance, however, but whatever the genesis of the axiom, the modern meaning is meant to describe a juggernaut in team sports.

Like the New England Patriots' offense.

The last team to stop the Patriots' offense was the Buffalo Bills last season in week four, when the Patriots started obviously injured rookie Jacoby Brissett at quarterback, who had to endure multiple injections into his damaged thumb just to be able to grasp a football - and Brissett was filling in for an even more injured Jimmy Garoppolo, who was filling in for a suspended Tom Brady.

The last team to truly contain the New England offense was the Denver Broncos in week fifteen - working in tandem with the bitter cold and altitude, the Broncos' defense held Brady to under 200 yards passing for the only time all season, their pass rush sacking him twice and staying in his face all day long.

Only the midstream adjustment of inserting scatback Dion Lewis into the game saved the offense that managed only 16 points, and even then was aided by Broncos' turnovers for excellent field position that resulted in ten of those digits.  Lewis exposed Denver's run defense for nearly 100 yards and the Patriots' top ranked scoring defense held the Broncos to a lonely field goal.

Which proves that merely containing the Patriots' offense isn't enough, something that the Atlanta Falcons found out in the Super Bowl when they toyed with New England and stood on precedence instead of finishing them off when they had the opportunity, committing the cardinal sin of allowing Brady to hang around long enough to rip their hearts out.

Because the Patriots offense can dictate terms to any defense - usually by taking an early lead and forcing them to adjust constantly throughout the game.  Of the sixteen regular season games in 2016, New England posted the initial score fourteen times, and did so two out of three times in the postseason as well.

In fact, the Patriots were the best team in the National Football League at putting their opponents on notice the first time they had the ball, taking leads on opening drives eleven times.  For good measure, they also started the second half of games putting up crooked numbers on their initial drives eight different times and, most memorable, did so in the only overtime period they played in all season.

And when they score, it's usually in bunches. Twenty times last season the Patriots scored on back to back possessions - and as if that wasn't enough, they scored on three consecutive possessions four times, four consecutive possessions three times, and on five straight possession once, that being in their behind-the-woodshed flogging of the Bills at Buffalo, payback for the Bills aforementioned shutout with Brissett at quarterback.

For those keeping score, those numbers mean that the Patriots scored 71% of their points in bulk, a literal devastating tsunami of methodical and controlled move-the-chains football that eats up clock and crushes the will of the opposition.

One of those back-to-back-to-back-to-back occasions was in the Super Bowl, as the Patriots put up 31 unanswered points to erase a twenty-five point deficit and win the title in overtime against an Atlanta defense that simply ran out of gas midway through the third quarter and wilted like week-old lettuce in a hot dumpster.

The Falcons had the proper game plan to contain the Patriots, and two turnovers by New England put Atlanta's defense in a position to stop them completely - but, strange as it may sound, it was the second gaffe by New England, a pick six thrown by Brady to Robert Alford, that started the wilting which ultimately did the Falcons in.

With 8:48 remaining in the first half and the Falcons up by 14 points thanks to two quick-strike touchdowns from excellent field position, Brady led the Patriots on a 12-play drive that culminated in Alford's interception return for a touchdown, then New England was immediately back out on offense and initiated an 11-play drive for a field goal to make the score 21-3 at halftime...

...but lost in the euphoria was the fact that the Falcons defense was on the field for 23 consecutive plays and a grand total of 43 plays for the half, totaling 19:32 of actual game time, the turnovers and quick scores causing the Falcons' defense to wear down, then subjecting them to scoring drives of 13, 12 and 10 plays in the second half to put them in the dirt.

The point being, is that it isn't just a matter of having a good defense and a solid game plan to stop New England, it's also a matter of their offense balancing the time of possession and giving the defense time to both get their proper rest and to regroup and adjust to what Brady is doing.

Like the Patriots did to their opponents on offense last season.

Including the playoffs, New England scored 63 touchdowns and 34 field goals in 2016, averaging a mind-numbing 4:30 in actual game time for each scoring drive.  That is four-and-one-half minutes that the Patriots' defense gets to rest while Brady and company are sapping the life out of the opposing defense.

What's amazing about those numbers is that the Patriots accomplished all of this with their running backs serving one-dimensional purposes for the most part, and with their passing game without All World tight end Rob Gronkowski for the majority of the season.  Of course, New England had Martellus Bennett to somewhat fill the void left by Gronk, but the running game was what it was.

But what's even more amazing, is that the Patriots have upgraded their skill position players to the point that they could improve exponentially on all of those numbers in 2017.

How?  Well, instead of employing a power back, the Patriots went out and procured the services of two all-purpose, four-down backs in former Cincinnati Bengals pine-rider Rex Burkhead and former Buffalo Bills up-and-comer Mike Gillislee, joining White and Lewis to give New England a more dynamic, less predictable offense.

Some may see them as redundant talents - and in the way the Patriots will use them, they probably are - but in this instance, that is a wonderful thing as no matter who or how many backs are aligned in the backfield, the presence of a seemingly endless supply of multi-tool backs means that the opposing defense will have to respect the run on every play and to defend the entire field...

...something that didn't always happen in 2016, as early down back LeGarrette Blount offered very little in the passing game and passing back White offered very little on the ground, so that gave the opposing defense a little latitude in defending the Patriots offense, loading the box when Blount was in the game and loading up the pass rush when he wasn't.

Of course, adding an element of deep speed in the form of former New Orleans Saints receiver Brandin Cooks advances that philosophy even further by forcing the defense into defending the entire field, which opens up running lanes.

All of this adds up to a more efficient offense, because despite the fact that the Patriots were the third best scoring team in the league, they scored on only 43% of their possessions - embarking on 221 drives in 2016 and scoring on just 97, that means that they left points - and time - on the field, and did so with a predictable offense.

For the sake of comparison, the Falcons scored on 52% of their possessions, but to do so, they sacrificed time of possession which, in the end, did them in.

The statistic that shows the disparity between New England and Atlanta comes in the form of third down plays per game.  New England, being a ball control, move-the-chains type of offense found themselves in third down situations fifteen times per game, converting over half of those into first downs - while the Falcons limited their third down opportunities only 11 times per game, and converting just four times, on average.

That tells us that the Falcons are a quick-strike entity that struggled when faced with do-or-die scenarios while New England preferred a more methodical approach, which resulted in better production when it really counted - on third down and in the red zone - because small ball is the way the Patriots play, so it comes naturally for them to focus on minute details.

The addition of Cooks doesn't change this philosophy, despite his elite deep speed, it just makes the Patriots more difficult to defend - because like everyone else on the offense, he will be expected to line up wherever Brady identifies a mismatch.  But because he does have the aforementioned deep speed, he along with Chris Hogan, Malcolm Mitchell and Rob Gronkowski give New England the ability to strike quickly if need be.

It's their choice.  The Patriots have built an offense that can spread your defense thin, then either bomb you into submission or nickle and dime you to death - so when you hear an announcer or prognosticator state that a defensive coordinator has to "pick their poison" when it comes to defending New England's offense, that should be taken literally...

The Art Of Football, Part 4: Belichick "Cooks" Up Enticing Receiving Corps

"A modern day warrior
Mean, mean stride
Today's Tom Sawyer
Mean, mean pride."

When Neil Peart, the world class drummer for the Canadian rock band Rush, penned the lyrics to the band's most recognizable and signature tune Tom Sawyer, New England Patriots head ball coach Bill Belichick was just starting to cut his football teeth as linebackers' coach for the New York Giants under the tutelage of Ray Perkins...

...the same Ray Perkins who, along with Ron Erhardt, devised the concept-based Erhardt-Perkins offense while they were both offensive assistants with the Patriots, a system so complex in it's simplicity that learning the playbook has ruined many competent veteran receivers with it's reliance on versatility.

Perkins' influence on Belichick is evident every time his Patriots take the field, as the mantra for the Erhardt-Perkins offense, "Pass to score, run to win" is pretty much how it's done in New England with their pass-first mentality and their ability to close out games by running out of their four-minute sets - but finding players that "get it" when it comes to the concepts is not an easy task.

The offense requires that every player knows what every other player is supposed to be doing, and relying on their diverse skill sets to give them the ability to line up at any position on the field, be it split wide, in the slot or in the backfield.

For years, Brady has called the play in the huddle - a simple one word designation that tells each player where to line up and what route he is running, breaking the huddle quickly and then using the rest of the play clock to survey the defense, unmask the coverages by sending any number of players in motion and gauging the defenses' reaction, then adjusting the pass catchers to a spot in the formation to take advantage of mismatches.

So, there's a reason why Belichick selects the pass catchers that he does, a reason why Patriots' receivers are no-name, often nomadic creatures who wouldn't make another team's roster because they lack any number of requisite qualities that fans will pay to see - literal jacks-of-all-trades, receivers that are successful in the concept have three things in common:

They are intelligent, both academically and in football vernacular.  They are versatile.  They are dependable.

Not a list of traits looked at with any degree of enthusiasm by the casual fan - or by many coaches, it seems - it is these traits that have fueled the Patriots' offense for close to two decades, ruining the aforementioned tenured veterans and making cult-figures of ambiguous, ill-figured athletes, some of whom had not played at receiver until Belichick got hold of them.

"Tom Sawyer was a collaboration between myself and Pye Dubois.  His original lyrics were kind of a portrait of a modern-day rebel, a free-spirited individualist striding through the world wide-eyed and purposeful.  I added the themes of reconciling the boy and the man in myself, and the difference between what people are and what others perceive them to be." Neil Peart

The gap between what Belichick is and what people perceive him to be has narrowed exponentially with each division title, with each conference championship and with each Super Bowl.  Initially, the man we've come to call "The Dark Master" was perceived to be a curmudgeonly old malcontent who loathed the media and didn't give two shits what anyone thought of him...

...his sole saving grace in the public eye was the obvious affection that he had for the men who played ball for him - and even that took hits every time he released or traded away a player whom the fanbase had decided had lots of gas left in their tank.

He discarded certain hall-of-fame receiver Randy Moss after he ceased to be useful, and dumped slot receiver Wes Welker after openly mocking him with the moniker "Wally Pipp" and giving his job to Julian Edelman.  He took chances on a washed-up Chad Ochocinco and Reggie Wayne, but both crashed and burned at the prospect of having to learn the playbook.

His track record of drafting receivers that could actually function in the system is abysmal, so instead he concentrates on collecting already broken-in talent with varying degrees of success and rides the lightning with them - his track record in that endeavor solid gold despite the failed Ochocinco experiment.

Moss set records and made mockery of secondaries throughout football.  Welker became the prototype for garden gnome-sized slot receivers, holding the fort for Edelman, a former-college quarterback that worked his way into the lineup.  Danny Amendola was signed the day that Welker was shown the door and became one of the most clutch receivers in team history.

Chris Hogan didn't even play college ball at Penn State, instead playing Lacrosse on scholarship then using his final year of eligibility to learn to play the position at tiny Monmouth College, and last season became the Patriots big play game breaker - and in Malcolm Mitchell, all indications are that Belichick may have finally gotten a draft pick right.

Indeed, Mitchell was the highest-drafted receiver on the roster last season - with the exception of late-season rental Michael Floyd - being taken in the fourth round and wowing the fans at Gillette Stadium with his toughness, resilience and electric moves after the catch, and all indications were that Mitchell was ready to break out onto the scene as a sophomore...

...that is until Belichick traded away his first-round draft pick to New Orleans in exchange for Brandin Cooks, a move that will either limit Mitchell's progress by taking snaps from him or make him that much more dangerous as opposing secondaries look to contain the speedy Cooks.

Running a blazing fast 4.33 in the 40 yard dash, Cooks routinely ran away from coverages operating out of the slot, his short area burst causing instant separation as he took slot corners inside out across the face of the intermediate zone and up the sidelines which draws the attention of the high safety and should leave the other pass catchers on the roster in single coverage.

That's bad news for defensive coordinators on the Patriots' schedule, especially considering that Mitchell and Hogan are no sloths, running 4.45 and 4.47 respectively - we saw what both did last season when left in man coverage, and the fact that they rose to the occasion when their team needed them most in the post-season makes them solid gold in Belichick's system.

No, his mind is not for rent
To any God or government
Always hopeful but discontent
He knows changes aren't permanent

Terminally discontent despite holding another trophy, in trading for Cooks Belichick addressed the most worrisome issue coming out of their championship season, that of not having a speed merchant to force the defense to defend the entire field and allowing defenses built on quickness - such as the Atlanta Falcons - to key down on taking away the short game that has been a staple of Belichick's offenses throughout his tenure.

His Patriots overcame that disadvantage in the Super Bowl, barely, but Belichick can't count on making epic comebacks week-after-week after spotting teams large leads - so he went out and did something about it.

In Cooks, Hogan and Mitchell, the Patriots are suddenly youthful in their receiving corps.  Cooks is 23 and still working on his rookie contract, though Belichick picked up his option for 2018 and making him a multi-millionaire.  Mitchell is in his second season at age 24 and also on his rookie contract, while Hogan is still just 28 and entering his sixth season...

...joining Edelman (30) and Amendola (31) to form perhaps the most dangerously versatile receiving corps in the National Football League.

Now add in the combined talents of tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Dwayne Allen - both just 27 years old and under contract for multiple seasons - along with the pass catching talent coming out of the backfield in the personages of Super Bowl hero James White (25), Dion Lewis (26), Rex Burkhead (26) and Mike Gillislee (26), and one has to wonder how anyone is going to stop the apparent juggernaut that Belichick has built.

Luckily for opposing defenses, the Patriots are only allowed five skill position players on the field at any one time - but that is going to be hard enough for them to cover and account for...

Today's Tom Sawyer
He gets high on you
And the space he invades
He gets by on you