Sunday, November 5, 2017

New England Patriots Midseason Forum - Part 2: Passing Game Revisiting 2015, But Has The Tools To Overcome Issues

When is the last time you saw a running back leading the New England Patriots offense in receptions?

The answer to that is 1977, when fullback Sam Cunningham caught 42 balls out of the backfield on a 9-5 team that missed the playoffs, barely eclipsing wide receiver Darryl Stingley for the team lead - and it makes sense, given that the play calling was run heavy by design, as it was a year before the NFL made rule changes that benefited the passing game to the point that it changed the face of the league.

Cunningham also eclipsed the thousand-yard plateau on the ground. But the thing is, back then running backs were expected to be heavily involved in the passing game, as it was far easier for a back to run a delayed pattern out of the backfield than it was for wide receivers and even tight ends to fight their way through cornerbacks and linebackers who could lay heavy contact on them without much notice from the referees.

Now, one could argue that it is far easier for receivers to break off the line and into their patterns, as corners, linebackers and safeties draw flags from the officials if they look at the receiver in the wrong tone past five yards down the field - not to mention that we see offensive pass interference calls at an alarming rate, congruent to those called on defenders.

For example, it seems that a game doesn't become official until tight end Rob Gronkowski is called for pass interference, and pick plays that used to be called rub routes before the wimpification of the National Football League often result in big plays being nullified.

In 1977, it was a fist fight between a receiver and a cornerback to gain separation, while today it's a dance contest and God help you if you touch a player on the opposing team more than five yards down the field - so there is significant risk in targeting receivers down the field...

...but it seems particularly risky for Patriots' receivers because when they lost Julian Edelman to a knee injury, they lost a throwback type player who wasn't afraid to mix it up and gained separation by being tougher than the defender.

That is one of the reasons for the recent trend in the league to bring draft and develop bigger receivers who can be more physical with cornerbacks, but even then when a ball falls incomplete, more often than not we will see a receiver do a fancy pirouette with his arms extended and palms facing towards the sky, barking at the officials because the defender make contact with him, no matter how significant the contact is.

The truth is the rules in the NFL, well-meaning as they are in trying to protect players from head injury while attempting to make the game faster and more exciting for the fans, have actually made the game slower and, honestly, more frustrating to watch - and it has gotten to the point that we will look to the bottom of our TV screens to make sure a yellow box with the word "flag" hasn't appeared to impact the play.

But while the rules have turned each passing play into an episode of Dancing With The Stars, many teams have mitigated that effect by turning to their running backs to compensate.

The Patriots have a deeper problem than a perceived lack of toughness, however.

Edelman is considered one of the toughest covers in the league, and his absence only serves to confirm that, as the Patriots' offense has struggled more and more as the season wears on and opposing defensive coordinators are seeing more and more film on what the Patriots have left in their outside arsenal.

Chris Hogan and Danny Amendola define toughness in their playing style, yet they lack the quick twitch / explosiveness combination to immediately separate in their routes the way Edelman does. Brandin Cooks and Phillip Dorsett have speed to burn, and play their best ball outside the numbers where their speed can compensate for their lack of physicality...

...while tight end Rob Gronkowski suffers from constant double teams and sometimes labors to get open while being mugged downfield - all of this assuming Brady has enough time to go through his progressions.

So what they have is not as important as what they don't have, which is Edelman's ability to gain immediate separation in his routes and provide quarterback Tom Brady the option to target Edelman on the "bang-bang" play that enabled Brady to get rid of the ball more quickly than anyone else in the league - and even more crucial than that is that the defense can concentrate more on the intermediate zone and make Brady hold the ball longer.

The same phenomenon occurred midway through 2015 when Edelman was lost for seven weeks with a broken bone in his foot. In those games, which covered the final seven of the regular season, the passing yards dipped by 90 yards per game and Brady took a nasty beating, but what really sent the offense into a tailspin from which they never recovered, was the loss of LeGarrette Blount with four games left to play.

Without the running game to have to defend, New England's opponents were able to concentrate solely on defending the passing game, which produced less than 200 yards per game. The Patriots were resilient enough to salvage two wins in that span, but with no running game in the playoffs, their defense carried them to the AFC Championship game and nearly to the Super Bowl.

The thing that prevented them from going to the Super Bowl? A lack of trust in the offense that caused curious play calling, going for it on fourth down deep in Denver Broncos' territory instead of kicking field goals late in the game, as Belichick admitted afterwards that he was trying to take the pressure off of his offense by going all four downs, not trusting that they had the gumption or the time to get down in the red area again to score any more points.

But in those games, Belichick and Brady didn't have a Cooks or a Hogan or a Lewis, nor a running game - all they had was a hobbled Amendola and an equally limited Gronkowski along with a recently activated Edelman and some street-signings, and ended up losing by two points.

It was during this stretch that Brady started targeting White, who has since turned into a major weapon in the passing game, last season breaking Kevin Faulk's team record for receptions and turned in a performance for the ages in the Super Bowl...

...a trend that has continued to flourish in 2017 as White is on pace for unprecedented numbers as the safety valve that Brady is missing in Edelman, with his target and reception numbers nearing what Edelman's have been, while the rest of the group are all languishing in mediocrity compared to their past production.

This is not to say that the effort is not there, just that the way the receiving corps is constructed limits their effectiveness, particularly in the red zone, when their skill sets married with coordinator Josh McDaniels' curious non-usage of what has to be one of the best running back situations in the league has led to meager point outputs in the last four games.

So the Patriots are more or less revisiting the 2015 season on offense, but with better personnel to work through losing Edelman with, and a great set of running backs that could take a lot of the heat off of Brady and the receivers if Belichick and McDaniels would just use them in the running game, which has been limited to just 39% of the offensive snaps this season.

Sadly, they haven't learned that lesson from two years ago, but Belichick is taking field goals when he has the chance to do so, and in doing so has been able to scratch out four consecutive wins - ugly wins, but victories nevertheless.

They have the tools and the talent to overcome their lack of quick-twitch ability in the pattern, and have four running backs who are versatile enough to take over some of Edelman's function, particularly White and Lewis, though a healthy Rex Burkhead may be they key to getting this passing game back on track, as he helps form an imposing trio of passing backs that could well start forcing defense to defend the entire field.

That would open up the intermediate zones enough to help Cooks, Amendola and Dorsett more of a factor down the field and also open up the seam for Gronkowski...

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