Showing posts with label Super Bowl 51. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Super Bowl 51. Show all posts

Saturday, May 6, 2017

The Art Of Football - Part 1: Brady's Super Bowl Performance Showed He's Far From Finished

Tom Brady is filthy.

Not just your standard-brand, slip and fall in the mud filthy - no, Tom Brady is rolling around in the pen with the swine, hanging out in the shadows of an alley, no-you-cannot-go-out-with-my-daughter filthy - and if anyone thinks that he's not, all those people have to do is watch the last six minutes of regulation and overtime of Super Bowl 51...
Brady's perfect throw to Amendola

...and if anyone doubts that Brady still has the tools to play at a high level, all one has to do is watch the throws the man made in overtime to rip the hearts out of the collective Falcons' defense.

Entering his eighteenth season, Brady can still make all of the throws required of an NFL quarterback - and not just make the throws, but to fire them into a tight window like a boss and also take a little bit off of a throw to drop it into a bucket over the coverage.  The most amazing thing is, however, that he can do both at the same time.

Absolutely filthy.

In overtime of Super Bowl 51, and after throwing nearly sixty passes to that point in overcoming a twenty-five point deficit, Brady made two of the sickest throws a football fan will ever see.

After completing a short toss to running back James White, Brady dropped back on a second and four from his own 31 yard line, initially looking up the seam to freeze the single high safety in his tracks then looked to Danny Amendola running an intermediate out pattern to the strong side...

...throwing a dart with just enough tough on it to keep Falcons' cornerback Brian Poole from making a play on the ball, but with just enough velocity to put the ball right on Amendola's hands on the right hashmark, gaining fourteen yards and setting up the Patriots just shy of midfield.

The very next play, Brady went to the weakside, patiently waiting for wide receiver Chris Hogan to sell a fly pattern up the left sideline to Atlanta corner Jalen Collins, then firing a missile five yards behind Hogan, who planted his lead foot and broke back towards the ball, which found Hogan's midsection just a split-second before Collins could get his hand in to break it up.

On both plays, the cornerbacks had perfect, tight coverage, and on both plays Brady pit the ball into a window so tight that to miss by a a fraction of an inch in any direction could have spelled disaster.

Even his next throw to Julian Edelman was on a line that you could have hung your clothes on, hitting the receiver right in traffic to set up a chain of events that included a pass interference call on Falcons' linebacker De'Vondre Campbell on the goal line and White's subsequent game winning strong-side sweep.

Those were not the kinds of throws made by a quarterback on his last legs, like Broncos' quarterback Peyton's wounded ducks in Super Bowl 50, where he was fortunate to be supported by a defense that forced four turnovers, two of them inside the Carolina Panthers red zone, and scored a touchdown themselves on a fumble recovery in the end zone.

The 17 points supplied, essentially and literally, by the Broncos' defense in that game turned out to be plenty to mask Manning's ineptitude and send him into retirement a winner - but Brady wasn't facing a middling offense that was easily intimdated and who couldn't hold onto the football.  The Atlanta Falcons gave the Patriots defense all they could handle, yet could only score 21 points against them...

...though they did supply the turning point in the game with a Dont'a Hightower strip sack of Atlanta's Matt Ryan that gave Brady a short field to turn a blowout into a one-score game, setting the stage for Brady's epic display of clutch passing.

Many in the media doubted Brady when he said last season that he could play well into his forties, but no one on either sideline in the Super Bowl had doubts about his abilities, even after he suffered through what may have been the worst first half of football that he had played all season - except maybe from Falcons' receiver Mohamed Sanu, who was captured commenting on the sidelines to fellow pass catcher Taylor Gabriel that the Patriots hadn't seen anything like what they were facing.

"It's Tom Brady, though." Gabriel replied matter-of-factly.

Sanu thought for a moment then replied, "I know, I'm never comfortable.  We're about to put 40 up on their ass."

Well, forty points would have won the game for sure, but instead the Patriots put up 31 unanswered points on Atlanta in the space of about twenty minutes, and ripped the Lombardi Trophy out of their hands like a street thug would a gold watch off an unsuspecting tourist.

So, Brady is going to be around for a little while longer, which means different things to different people.  For the rest of teams in the NFL and their fans, it means that the Patriots will remain the team to beat for the foreseeable future.  For Patriots' fans it means that the chance for a another trophy or two is not just a possibility, but a probability...

...but for backup Jimmy Garoppolo, Brady's continued excellence presents him with a bit of a quandary.

Garoppolo is heading into the final year of his rookie contract, and is set to hit the open market in free agency after the 2017 season, ready to cash in on what will be sure to be one of the more lucrative deals ever handed out to a seasoned clipboard holder - so many were questioning why the Patriots haven't been inclined to deal Garoppolo this offseason to try and get value out of him now instead of letting him walk for nothing next offseason.

The answer to that lies in the history of professional football, and it appears that New England is ready to franchise tag the Eastern Illinois product if they can't come to some sort of agreement with him to compel him to wait for his opportunity in Foxborough, because judging from their actions leading up to and including the draft, the Patriots don't want to deal Garoppolo, no matter the price.

And why should they?  In Garoppolo, they have a ready-made heir to Tom Brady already under contract, and while Brady is firm in his resolve to play well into his 40's, all it will take is one significant injury - and without a quarterback to fall back on, the Patriots' championship aspirations take a momentous hit - and history is replete with examples.

For instance, when Trent Green went down in the 1999 preseason, what would the Rams have done without Kurt Warner?  How about in 1971 when Roger Staubach replaced an ineffective Craig Morton in Dallas? How about Jim Plunkett for Dan Pastorini in 1980?  Jeff Hostettler for Phil Simms in 1990? Trent Dilfer for Tony Banks in 2000?  All of those teams went on to win championships with their backups.

Of course, how can Patriots' fans forget a guy named Tom Brady coming off the bench in 2001 to lead the Patriots to their first title?

But if you want a more recent example of what can happen if a team doesn't plan properly for injury, all one has to do is to look at what happened to the Oakland Raiders last season, when Derek Carr went down in week 16 with a broken fibula and all they had to fall back on was Matt McGloin and Connor Cook, who combined for two touchdowns and four interceptions as Oakland lost their regular season finale...

...at the same time losing the AFC West and a chance at homefield advantage, then went to Houston as a wild card and got thumped by a Texans team that had Brock Osweiller at quarterback.  If the Raiders had actually employed a decent backup - McGloin had been a career clipboard holder and Cook was a rookie - they might have had the advantage over every other AFC team, including New England.

As has been said numerous times, Jimmy Garoppolo may be the best backup in the NFL, and it is obvious that his value to the forward thinking Patriots as an insurance policy against an aging Brady is worth more than a couple of draft picks or future considerations.

The Patriots have no holes in their lineup to speak of, and their depth is better than just about anyone else's in the league, barring perhaps at defensive end and at offensive guard, and now that the draft is over, the options that the Patriots have in replacing incumbent talent with a college kid are narrow indeed, no matter the position.

In the end, the Patriots are loaded - as loaded as any franchise in any city in recent memory - a literal juggernaut with the greatest quarterback who ever played the game, playing at a level and with a confidence that has never been witnessed before.

That in itself is enough to generate awe from every one of their opponents, but when you include the ridiculous talent that head ball coach Bill Belichick has assembled around Brady, it becomes downright frightening - even if Garoppolo is forced into the lineup.

Needless to say, the New England Patriots are set at quarterback.

Next: Part 2, previewing the Patriots running backs

Friday, February 24, 2017

Relaoding The Musket, Part 4 - Super Bowl A Quantification Of Patriots' Philosophies On Both Sides Of Ball

"If the enemy sees an advantage to be gained and makes no effort to secure it, the soldiers are exhausted" - Sun Tzu in The Art of War

When the Atlanta Falcons' Robert Alford intercepted New England Patriots' quarterback Tom Brady and returned the pick for six, many in the audience felt that the Falcons had sealed the deal and had the Patriots right where they wanted them.

Turns out, the Patriots had the Falcons right where they wanted them.

You see, despite the fact that New England tends to lean towards being pass-heavy in their approach on offense, their ultimate goal - besides outscoring the other team - is to control the clock with time-consuming and turf-eating drives, coming away with points or flipping field position out of each one, whatever it takes to either limit the number of possessions by their foe, or to make them have to go as far as possible to score.

That philosophy runs counter to everything that the pass-happy National Football League strives for, but has now added up to six consecutive appearances in the AFC Title Game and two world championships in the last three seasons - and Lord only knows if it could have been three straight titles had the Patriots not been so heavily injured going into 2015's conference championship.

This is not to say that the Patriots aren't aided by the constantly evolving rule changes that feed into the NFL's want of making the game more aesthetically pleasing to even the most casual of fan, it's just that head ball coach Bill Belichick's insistence on his players being being both fundamentally sound in their approach to the game and in superior condition to their foe sets them apart.

This goes beyond the Dark Master's criteria for selecting personnel for his team that requires a passion for the game - not just the passion that most players give lip service to in the media, but real give-it-all-you-have-in-practice passion - coupled with intelligence and versatility, all of which add up to value...

...which is why you will see Belichick cut a player loose in their prime, because when a player loses his passion, it doesn't matter how intelligent or how athletically gifted he is, his value to the collective decreases - and the Patriots' history under Belichickian rule is riddled with the bones of players who lost their value to the team.

Most of that passion directly impacts the desire to prepare for games both in the classroom and on the practice field, and incites the requisite mental toughness that combines with superior conditioning and preparation in the fourth quarter of football games, where contests are won or lost.

Like in Houston a couple of weeks ago, where Sun Tzu's passage above, in his epic work called the Art of War, came to fruition.

At halftime of the Super Bowl, the Falcons had a seemingly commanding 21-3 lead, a lead perpetuated and increased exponentially by the big play, because that's who the Falcons are - the top scoring offense in the league, led by the newly minted NFL Most Valuable Player and Offensive Player of the Year.

The problem, however, is that while the Falcons have a very effective offense, as a team they are far from efficient.  No doubt, their offense is full of explosive intensity and are capable of reaching the end zone from any position on the field and relies on downfield momentum to get them there, but that tends to cause a phenomenon known as gassing their defense, especially when facing a team, like New England, that has an offense that is as efficient as any in the league.

How efficient? The Patriots ranked third in the NFL in plays per game, calling nearly seventy per contest - a number that climbed to eighty in the post-season, an astronomical number considering that the league average falls short by twenty plays per game.  That keeps their defense on the sideline for long stretches at a time...

...and when coupled with the fact that Belichick likes to keep a rotation going with the front seven to limit the number of snaps that his heavyweights play, it keeps them fresh for the fourth quarter.  Add to that the aforementioned conditioning that Belichick puts them through, and the sum equates to a fresh, strong defense that regularly overwhelms their counterparts.

The Falcons? Not so much.

Atlanta is in the bottom five in the NFL in that category, number 27 out of thirty-two teams in plays called per game.  Not surprisingly, this corresponds to their defense wearing down in the second half as evidenced by the fact that they gave up the third-most second half points in the NFL, and the most points in the league in the fourth quarter.

So is it any surprise that the Patriots, despite being down by eighteen at the half and by twenty-five with half of the third quarter gone, were supremely confident that the game wasn't lost?

Although it goes without saying that the Patriots would rather have not had to dig out of that abysmal hole, they had to take solace in the fact that they had moved the ball well on offense, but turned the ball over in scoring position twice - the second time, Alford ran the interception back for what appeared to the naked eye as a backbreaking touchdown, but which in reality became the genesis of a series of events that doomed the Falcons.

Alford's interception came on the 15th snap of a sloth-like 52 yard drive that had eaten up six-and-a-half minutes of game clock, and after the TV timeout, the Falcons' defense was right back out on the field, absorbing 10 more snaps and surrendering a meaningless-looking field goal to take a 21-3 lead into the locker room.

But during that last possession, the Falcons' coaches desperately tried substituting with Brady running the no-huddle attack, finally calling a time out to give their guys a blow and slowing down the Patriots' momentum.  They were intimately aware of their own shortcomings

But it was too late.  Their guys were spent.

The Atlanta offense looked like they hadn't broken a sweat, and had been sitting on the sidelines for what was nearly an hour thanks to the two long New England drives and the traditional extended halftime period before hanging another seven on the Patriots to build the lead to twenty-five - until Brady took control of the game...

...leading the Patriots on four consecutive scoring drives to tie the game, grinding down the Atlanta defense with forty plays that ate up sixteen-and-a-half minutes of game clock and erased the Falcons' lead.

Conversely, the Patriots' defense, fresh from their policy of rotating their heavies and Brady's protracted wizardry. forced three punts and a fumble in the final 17 minutes of regulation, having only to stay on the field for a total of 16 plays as they worked along with the offense to take the Lombardi Trophy away from Atlanta.

The Falcons score quickly.  It's what they do, but the consequences are something that they dealt with all season long, and it came back to bite them in their collective hind parts in the Super Bowl. The Patriots, on the other hand, grind you into the ground with their methodical approach that is devoid of glitz and glitter and heavy on substance.

That substance is generated by their philosophical approach to the game.  On defense, that means to take away the opponent's top threat to New England's base, and not necessarily their "best" player - but the best way to do that sometimes isn't determined until the game starts and the coaching staff has a look at how their plan is impacting the opposing offense.

Against the Falcons, the plan was to take away their running game and to stay on top of explosive wide out Julio Jones - and they did neither in the first half, as Jones was instrumental in Atlanta's two scoring drives, catching three balls for 60 yards while the Falcons' running backs went wild on the edges, going for 80 yards on just 10 carries...

...but the Patriots adjusted in the second half, allowing only the 27-yard acrobatic sideline catch to Jones that momentarily looked like the death knell for New England, while completely shutting down Atlanta's running game, giving up just 14 yards on nine carries, lead back Devonta Freeman being stuffed for no gain or losses five different times.

The combination of the two explains why the Falcons felt compelled to pass instead of run during that crucial stretch late in the game, a stretch that led to a series of events that took the Falcons out of scoring position that could have iced the game for them.

The reason, just like every other game for New England, was because of their philosophies dictate that they take what they can get while the other team is fresh and the playing field is level - then grind them down, make slight adjustments to force them into situations where they are at a disadvantage, and feed off of their one-dimensional alternative.

The Patriots don't have many superstars, they just have incredible depth at just about every position, which allows them more latitude in play calling as the game rolls along, forcing the opposition to play into their hands.  So in reloading the musket, one can be assured that Belichick will load up on role players to promote depth, and play into their strengths.

It's called leverage, and with Belichick being an unrepentant leverage junkie, it only makes sense that his philosophies have been so successful in the past and in the present, and will likely continue for the foreseeable future.

Wednesday, February 8, 2017

Patriots Mug Falcons In Overtime To Take Fifth Title

The New England Patriots found themselves in quite a situation on Sunday evening.

Down by 25 points to an upstart Atlanta Falcons team that was hell-bent on bringing their fans a first-ever professional football championship, the Patriots fell back on their default settings of superior conditioning and meticulous fundamentals to try and make a game of a Super Bowl that for the first 40 minutes had them teetering on the brink of being blown out of Houston's NRG Stadium.

New England head ball coach Bill Belichick always emphasizes what he calls, "situational football.", the ability to adapt to any circumstance that may arise in the ebbs and flows of a football game, and his teams practice them relentlessly, be it in practice preparing for a game, or when given an opportunity to do so in an actual game.

So when presented with the opportunity to apply what they had learned throughout countless hours of preparation, his Patriots put on a clinic in what playing situational football looks like in practical application - and even then, it took a record-setting performance by the Patriots' offense and a handful of mistakes by the Falcons to set up a singular ending to perhaps the best Super Bowl in the history of the game.

Quarterback Tom Brady completed 42 of 62 passes for 466 yards - all Super Bowl records - and running back James White shed his one-dimensional passing back label, rushing for nearly five yards per carry and scoring twice on the ground - including the game winner in overtime -  as the Patriots scored 31 unanswered points to win their fifth Lombardi Trophy, defeating Atlanta by a score of 34-28.

The situation, of course, was caused by a combination of a talented Falcons' team taking full advantage of the Patriots handing them the football.

White was used sparingly in the running game during the season as power back LeGarrette Blount carried the load, but accumulated sixty receptions - good for second on the team behind wide receiver Julian Edelman - while showing a subtle elusiveness that earned him the nickname "Sweet Feet" while playing college ball at Wisconsin.

How elusive? Consider that of his 110 yards gained on 14 receptions against Atlanta, 74 of those yards came after the catch, Brady putting the ball on him in the short flat or on the underneath crosser and allowing him to break ankles and tackles - and with the game on the line in the fourth quarter and in overtime, and especially in the red zone, Belichick and Brady trusted White with the fate of the team.

In fact, more than half of his touches came in crunch time - catching six passes for 36 yards and taking the handoff from Brady six times for 23 yards, gaining the line for six first downs, two touchdowns and a crucial two-point conversion on a direct snap, as the third-year player looked every bit the prospect we was coming out of college...

...where he not only ran for over 4,000 yards and caught 73 passes for almost 700 yards, but also fumbled the ball just once in over 700 career touches - and that has carried over into the pros, where he hasn't put the ball on the ground in 250 career touches.

That's 950 times that White has handled the football in his career, and he has fumbled just once - and if there was one thing that the Patriots needed as part of their epic comeback, it was to hold onto the football and not give the Falcons anymore free gifts.  White gave them that.

After all, Blount had fumbled to kill a promising drive in the first quarter with no score on the board for either team, and Brady threw a pick-six two possessions later that made the score 21-0 for Atlanta, so ball security was paramount if the Patriots were going to get back into the game - a score that could have just as easily been tied or even reversed, were it not for the turnovers.

Because it wasn't like the Patriots weren't moving the ball on offense in the first half, they just keep shooting themselves in the foot.

In the first half, which ended up with New England trailing by 18, the Patriots ran 42 plays, gained 215 yards in total offense and doubled up Atlanta's time of possession, 20 minutes to ten - while in the second half, New England ran off 43 plays for 274 yards and held the ball for 17 minutes to 13 for Atlanta, the only difference being that they didn't turn the ball over and finished their drives.

"The Falcons didn't do anything differently on defense in the second half, we just executed a little bit better." Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels said after the game, "They were playing a little more man-to-man in the first half. We adjusted as the game went on."

The man-to-man was designed to slow down what the Falcons perceived to be the strength of the Patriots' passing game, wide receiver Julian Edelman, deep threat Chris Hogan and primary back Dion Lewis - and it worked, initially - but the sheer number of plays run by a Patriots' offense that manufactured a Super Bowl record 37 first downs took it's toll on the entire Atlanta defense and forced them to resort to more zone coverages...

...but while Edelman and Hogan continued to struggle with separation throughout the game, White, receiver Danny Amendola and rookie wideout Malcolm Mitchell went off with nine, eight and five catches in the second half, respectively, accounting for 16 first downs, two receiving touchdowns and a receiving two-point conversion between them.

"That's the thing about this team, we've always got." Lewis said when asked about White's contribution, "It is always somebody different."

The same could be said for the Patriots' defense, which turned in an effort worthy of a world championship, holding quarterback Matt Ryan to his lowest passing yardage total of the season (240) and the Falcons' high powered offense to their second lowest total offensive production (344) - sacking Ryan five times and shutting them out for the final 23 minutes of regulation.

Because, that's what Matt Patricia's group does, right?

For the season, the Patriots' defense surrendered an average of  8 points in the second half of games, and just under eight points per game in the first half - but the caveat is that this squad gives up next to nothing in the first quarter, averages a touchdown in the second quarter, just about a touchdown per game in the third quarter and next to nothing in the final frame.

And that's pretty much exactly the way things went down in Super Bowl 51.

Of the Falcons' ten offensive possessions, six ended in punts and one on a strip sack of Ryan by Patriots' middle linebacker Dont'a Hightower.  Of course the other three ended in quick-strike scores totaling 218 yards - their longest drive of the game was eight plays in 4:14 -  the other seven accounted for 104 yards, and only 48 of those in the second half.

Of course, if one were to calculate the Patriots' chances of winning after giving up only 21 points to the highest scoring offense in the league, you'd have to like New England's chances - and if one were to suggest that the Patriots' defense were to hold the Atlanta offense to just 240 passing yards, you'd be giddy enough to preorder championship gear.

But when you factor in that the Falcons scored 14 points off of Patriots' turnovers, it skews that thinking - in fact, without those turnovers, given the fact that New England's offense consistently moved the ball well all game, the Patriots likely don't need overtime and the heroics of so many players - and the game would have been a blowout in the other direction.

In the end, the universe unfolded as it was supposed to, with the superior team coming out on top in perhaps the most epic Super Bowl ever.

Next - Part 2: Patriots' pass defense shuts down Falcon's running game

Saturday, February 4, 2017

Super Bowl 51 - Line Rotation, Physical Secondary Winning Recipe For Patriots' Defense

Chris Long says he would have played this year for five bucks.

Of course, that's against the collective bargaining agreement that dictates Long's minimum salary for the 2016 NFL season for a player of his advanced tenure - he is in his ninth season - would have been just shy of a million clams, but his words resonate, especially with New England Patriots' fans.

After being unceremoniously dumped by the Rams in mid-February, Long immediately made it known that he would only sign with a Super Bowl contender to weed out the suckers, then visited Atlanta, Detroit and Washington before seeing Patriots' head ball coach Bill Belichick about a job a month after his release, ultimately signing with New England the next day.

His dream came true, as the Patriots have indeed made it to the big game - and now, it's his turn to make the sort of big-game impact that the Patriots envisioned for him when signing him to a one-year $2.4 million contract.

What kind of big-game impact? Simply, to set the edge.  If the Patriots can accomplish that on Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons, it will have been worth every penny paid to Long, not to mention the entire top-ranked defense New England brings into Houston's NRG Stadium for Super Bowl 51.
Ryan is the Patriots' most physical corner

The Atlanta Falcons running backs feed off the edges, averaging well over five yards per carry overall, and owning a particularly stout six yards per carry running to the right behind tackle Ryan Schraeder, often in conjunction with Alex Mack, who is perhaps the best pulling center in the league, anchored in the scheme by road grading right guard Chris Chester.

How important is the ground game to the Falcons?  In four games this season when their opponent has held them to under 100 yards rushing, the Falcons are 0-4.  In games in which they have achieved 100 yards rushing or more, they are 11-1.  Obviously, stopping the run is paramount to the Patriots' defensive success.

But where the Patriots must exploit with their pass rush is over that right guard position, where Chester has struggled all season, allowing nearly a third of Atlanta's sack total on the season.  The Patriots must be relentless in attacking Chester, as he tends to get high with his pad level as the game progresses and he tires and can be walked back into the passer.

Mack is more athletic than stout, and tends to do his best work moving forward and also laterally, pulling into the gap between guard and tackle and taking on the linebacker on the second level - but when dropping into his stance as a pass protector, he can be moved back into the pocket as well.

In fact, the Falcons allowed Ryan to be sacked at least twice in a game in all but one contest in the regular season, and ranks in the bottom-third of the league in sack percentage. The caveat is that there was only one team that they did not give up a sack to, and that was the Packers two weeks ago in the NFC Championship game - though solace can be taken by New England fans that the Packers generate next to no pressure up the gut...

...which is exactly where the Falcons' offensive line is most vulnerable, and also where the Patriots have the depth to take advantage of the chink in their armor - and the Patriots will likely be in their Big Nickel alignment for the majority of the game, which gives them the advantage in two different ways.

First, because the alignment calls for a third safety to take the place of a linebacker - usually from the weak side - it gives New England the ability to run with eight defenders in the box and still maintain coverages as Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung are adept at taking on players coming out of the slot and out of the backfield and are loads in run support.

Secondly, it gives them the ability to disguise coverages and rush packages, meaning that the Falcons will have to account for the entire defense.  It is typical to see as many as ten defenders within a couple of yards of the line of scrimmage, and Belichick has shown that he is not shy in sending a corner or a safety on a corner blitz or dropping a defensive end into coverage.

Point being, the opposing offense typically has no idea who will be dropping into coverage and who is rushing the passer - and, more importantly, where the pass rush will engage the protection.

This is where things get tricky for Atlanta.  They will be facing a defense that has not only the best blitzing linebacker in the NFL in Dont'a Hightower, but also a group of very large and very quick defensive ends who easily reduce down to rush from the three-tech (outside shoulder of the guard) or even the one-tech (inside shoulder) to split the gaps and force the Falcons to keep one of their dangerous backs in to pass block.

But to accomplish this against Atlanta, they will have to do it with a mixture of three and four-man rush packages that sprinkles in blitzes in select spots.

With a standard four-man front, wide bodies Alan Branch (6' 6", 350 pounds), Malcom Brown (6' 2", 320) and rookie Vincent Valentine (6' 2", 320) rotation form a formidable two-man rotation that has been terrific against the run - and while the trio have recorded but a handful of sacks this season from the defensive tackle positions, that really isn't what they are out there for against the pass.

What they are out there for is to collapse the pocket into the quarterback's face, forcing the opponent to double team one or both, leaving an entrance for Hightower to race through or for their defensive ends to exploit on an inside stunt...

...especially with second-year emerging star Trey Flowers, who at 6' 2" and 270 pounds is nearly a spitting image of Hightower, but with unmatched strength and leverage at the point of attack.  Flowers leads the Patriots in sacks and pressures. Fellow defensive ends Jabaal Sheard, Rob Ninkovich, and Long join Flowers in yet another situational rotation on the edges, that pays huge benefits late in games.

The rotation has many benefits, with being fresh for crunch time the main profit, all the while maintaining integrity on the edges, which is important given the running styles of both Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, the Falcons' one-two punch in both the ground game and through the air.

Freeman is a complete back who is equally dangerous in the pattern as he is on the ground, while Coleman is a live wire with speed to burn.  Freeman is a patient runner who waits for his blocking to form a gap, while Coleman has a tendency to run up the backs of his blockers - but both are better on the edges and will likely look to gain the corner on the Patriots rather than deal with Branch and Brown.

Coleman has a little Dion Lewis to his game, a speedster with elusiveness in space and a seriously filthy jump cut that helped him become one of the best backs in the league in gaining yards after the catch - but as explosive as he is, he is not one that is going to break a lot of tackles, so a zone containment by a linebacker like Kyle Van Noy would probably do the trick.

What the coverages on the backs have to avoid is playing a trailing technique across the middle of the second level, because both backs have the ability to separate quickly after the catch, leading to big chunks of yardage...

...which is what Falcons' quarterback Matt Ryan will be looking for not only when he throws to his backs, which he does on average about six times per game, but also when he goes downfield to his trio of outstanding receivers.  Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel account for exactly half of Matty Ice's targets this past season, a number that continues to trend in the playoffs.

Jones has it all: size (6' 3", 220 pounds), speed (4.39), will go over the middle and isn't afraid to block downfield - but there are two things that the Patriots' secondary may be able to take advantage of. Jones tends to wilt in the face of physical play off the line, becoming frustrated if the corner is able to manhandle him which, with his size and explosiveness off the line, doesn't happen frequently.

But Jones is also dealing with two sprained ligaments in his right big toe as well as a mid-foot issue believed to be a sprained ligament as well, and while it didn't look to be an issue in the NFC Championship game - indeed, he wasn't even listed on the final injury report on Friday - it remains to be seen how he reacts to being punked at the line.

Which is going to happen.

The Patriots may have the most physical collection of defensive backs in the NFL, and also the most sure-tackling group as well, which allows them some latitude in the number of covers that they can employ on the field at any one time.

How much latitude?  That's up to Belichick, but it's certainly within the realm of possibility that New England flips the traditional script and goes with a back seven - or even eight - throwing in some coverages that have elements of cover 2, some that have elements of cover four, some that have elements of both.

That's the beauty of the brand of Big Nickel that the Patriots profess, as they can employ both at the same time.  The cover two, which is essentially the bend-but-don't-break defense that the Patriots generally play, requires two deep safeties each responsible for half of the field over the top while the corners underneath engage their mirrors with man coverage...

...while the cover four, essentially a prevent-style of defense, calls for two safeties and two corners each taking a quarter of the deep zone to prevent long gainers through the air - but when combined, it splits the field in half.  On the strong side (Where the tight end lines up, usually on the right side of the formation) the team will employ a cover four look, meaning that on that half of the field there will be four defenders covering a quarter of that half of the field.

On the weak side, a single safety plays over the top of a corner, who will release his receiver to the safety while trailing the play. New England is in unique position to play this hybrid "Cover six", because they have two quality free safeties who can handle the deep zones and allowing the strong safety to cover the sideline zone with enough forward momentum to break for the flat in the event of a run or screen play.

That leaves two corners in the underneath zones where, like the aforementioned strong safety, they can break on the run or screen simply by releasing their man responsibilities to the safeties.  In this scenario, the Patriots would rush three and rely on their standard two-linebacker look to remain stout against the run and to knock the snot out of shallow crossers.

The beauty of this hybrid look is that it allows for the corners to play up on the line so that they can get physical with Atlanta's large receivers.

That said, who covers whom?

That depends on who you ask, but don't bother asking Bill Belichick or anyone else in the organization because, rightly so, that is an institutional secret.  But a look at the Patriots' defensive backs can give us some ideas.

Logan Ryan grades out as the Patriots most physical corner, and covers bigger receivers well - as he proved in covering Sanu when the big possession receiver was in Cincinnati, and in shutting down Eric Decker with the Broncos.  Ryan's issue involves speed, which he lacks, so he would do well in dealing with Sanu again.

Malcolm Butler has some speed and has shown exceptional grit in covering bigger receivers as well - his mugging job on Seattle's Jermaine Kearse in the Super Bowl two years ago a prime example, and will no doubt draw Jones at select times during the game, but the intriguing player in this scenario is in-season pick up Eric Rowe.

A free safety his entire football career, Rowe switched to cornerback in his senior season at Utah to help out a thin corner corps, so he's been playing the position for three years, which means that he obviously had some growing pains to deal with, but in a hybrid look, Rowe has the same size-speed ratio - 6' 1", 2210 pounds, 4.45 in the 40 - as under-rated centerfielder Duron Harmon.

That essentially gives New England four quality safeties - Rowe, Harmon, Patrick Chung and Devin McCourty - in which to run their hybrid-big nickel look, and it's not beyond the realm of imagination that the Patriots combining zone and man elements that allow for the corners to be physical at the line, knowing that they have their backs covered by an excellent group of safeties.

There are no guarantees, of course, but in theory, it works.

The Falcons have virtually no production out of their tight ends, though the two they play are certainly capable in the passing game and should not be ignored, so there wouldn't be a huge chance of one of them splitting the safeties up the seam - which is a tangible danger of combining coverage schemes.  But in the end, Atlanta has to follow the same rules as every other team in the NFL, which means that they have only five players eligible to make plays with the ball...

...and when combined with all of the talent and experience on the top-rated Patriots' defense - and especially with head ball coach Bill Belichick exuding never-before-seen confidence in his pressers and general attitude, Patriots' fans have every reason to feel a fifth victory parade coming on...

Tuesday, January 31, 2017

Super Bowl LI - Patriots' Receivers, Akin To Misfits, Bask In Belichick's Offensive System

Keyshawn Johnson was right.

Sort of.

The loquacious, quite well-traveled former NFL wide receiver said on Friday that none of the receivers on the New England Patriots roster wouldn't find themselves on any other team's depth chart, simply because they are a product of the Patriots' system, which accentuates their limited individual skill sets.
Players no one else wanted: Hogan and Brady represent lethal hook up

Where the former Jets, Bucs, 'boys and Panthers' pass catcher has a point is where recent history suggests that receivers whom have been part of the New England culture since head ball coach Bill Belichick arrived on the scene at the turn of the century, just haven't been impactful - neither before they arrive on campus, nor after the leave.

Where Johnson is off the mark is when he says they are a product of the system - because they aren't a product of the system, they are the system.

You see, where most coaches and personnel men select players whom they can integrate into their offensive scheme, Belichick builds his scheme around his receivers combined skill set.  This allows Belichick much more latitude in game planning, expanding the concepts in his playbook and allowing a seemingly endless combination of personnel packages.

It's the theory of not trying to jam a square peg into a round hole, rather, to bore out the round hole to allow the square peg to fit.

And while Johnson is mostly correct in his assertion that Patriots' wide receivers wouldn't be contributing factors in most other passing games around the league, it is also true that Belichick is consistently above the curve when it comes to innovation - his concept-driven offensive philosophy requiring above average intelligence and intestinal fortitude, and if you have those things, he will put you in the position to succeed.

But Belichick is under no obligation to ensure that any player who leaves his team is ready to take on any other scheme - and, as we've seen and as Johnson points out, many are not.

Belichick's offense is predicated on the old New England standard introduced by offensive coordinators Ron Erhardt and Ray Perkins during their time together on Chuck Faurbanks' staff during the early and middle parts of the 1970s, and include the same plays that would conjure memories if one had played high school ball...

...only that the defense has no way of determining what they plays are because they are run from what coaches refer to as "concepts", which means that these simple and fundamental plays are formed in a group, depending on the personnel on the field, that gives the quarterback a myriad of options to take advantage of whatever formation the defense has committed to on any given play.

The concepts are easy for the players to learn, as they form a mental picture of routes, blocking assignments and running gaps from a single word.

Everyone who watches football hears a quarterback barking out numerical and linguistic instructions to the other ten offensive players on the field, and for most teams, the quarterback is simply calling an audible - changing the play at the line of scrimmage - or setting different blocking instructions for his linemen, but when one hears Patriots' quarterback Tom Brady's cadence, he is actually calling the play at the line of scrimmage.

The Patriots are able to do this because of their personnel, as every player on the field at any given time has the skill set that enables Brady to shift them into any position in the formation, knowing that each player is capable of running the route assigned to the position - in effect, each player has an interchangeable skill set that has been incorporated into the offensive system during the previous offseason and implemented during training camp.

If there is a drawback to the system, we saw it during the 2013 and 2015 seasons when the Patriots lost so many players to injury that the system broke down when replacement players were signed out of desperation, limiting the offense to simply running plays instead of utilizing their conceptual scheme.

In both seasons, the team lost enough pass catching threats that it altered the play calling to more of a bare bones playbook, reducing them to one-dimensional entities that better defenses in the NFL were able to take advantage of, losing in the AFC title game to Denver in both seasons because they simply couldn't impose their will on the Broncos' top-rated defense.

To combat this, Belichick turned his attention to depth signings this past offseason, not willing to chance losing another season because his offense couldn't operate at max-efficiency.

For example, instead of keeping his fingers crossed that All World tight end Rob Gronkowski could make it through an entire season unscathed, he send a late-round draft pick to Chicago to acquire Pro Bowl tight end Martellus Bennett - and while this move solicited visions of a revisitation to the days of Gronkowski and now-incarcerated thug Aaron Hernadez terrifying opposing defenses with a two-tight end attack, it was instead a depth move that worked out famously when Gronkowski went down midway through the season.

Similar moves have been made in the past few seasons, with names such as Chris Hogan and Dion Lewis brought in to ensure that injury wouldn't limit their conceptual system - a system that have seen them in six consecutive AFC Championship games in as many seasons, and are now vying for their second World title in three tries during the same time span.

The good news for the Patriots is that, with the exception of Gronkowski, the Patriots are whole on offense with no limitation to their concepts.  The bad news for their opponents, the NFC Champion Atlanta Falcons, is that no team in the past two-plus seasons have been able to contain the Patriots' offense with a full complement of weapons effectively enough to give their own offense a chance to outscore them.

The Falcons, in fact, are very similar defensively to what the Pittsburgh Steelers fielded in their title tilt showdown with New England, in that they are mediocre against the run, surrendering an eye-popping 4.5 yards per rush, while their secondary ranks in the bottom five - a number that is a bit deceiving in that Atlanta's offense tends to jump out to huge early leads, forcing the opposing offenses to be one-dimensional to play catch-up.

The result, of course, is that Atlanta's pass rushers pin their ears back and come after the opposing quarterback and their secondary goes into a dime look where they can shut down ordinary receivers playing in ordinary passing attacks.

Of course, the Patriots have anything but an ordinary attack and are led by the greatest quarterback to ever take a snap, playing in a system designed to take advantage of the considerable individual skill sets of their players - and with New England's offense playing with a full complement of weapons, feeding off of the top scoring defense in the National Football League, the chances for  Falcon's victory seem dim...

...and all of this from a collection of receivers that wouldn't be able to make another team's roster.

So says Keyshawn Johnson, anyway.