Showing posts with label Buffalo Bills. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Buffalo Bills. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 1, 2019

Defense, Special Teams Carry Patriots To Win In Buffalo


Tom Brady and the New England Patriots' offense had a miserable time of it on Sunday afternoon in Orchard Park, New York - but that's ok.

In seasons past, a bad game out of Brady may have been the death knell for the Patriots, who have leaned on the future Hall of Fame quarterback for the past two decades to bail them out of tough spots - but this year the roles appear to be reversed as New England's defense has caused opposing signal callers to have performances just as bad...

...and on Sunday afternoon the trend continued, the defense forcing four turnovers and sacking Buffalo Bills' quarterbacks five times as the Patriots, ran their undefeated record to 4-0 in a 16-10 victory over Buffalo at New Era Stadium.
Patriots' Jackson (27) blocks a punt in the first quarter

But so poor was the offensive attack for the Patriots that their top-ranked defense also needed a big-time assist from their special teams to pull out a win.

Cornerback J.C. Jackson blocked a punt deep in Buffalo territory, which star special-teamer Matthew Slater picked up and returned for a score to provide what proved to be the winning points, and punter Jake Bailey consistently flipped field position to bail out the bogged-down offense with long, booming kicks that forced the Bills to drive the length of the field to acquire points.

Bailey's rocket launcher of a right leg is not only quickly becoming the stuff of Patriots' lore, but has proven to be a legitimate weapon in the field position battle, seemingly defying the laws of gravity and sending footballs into orbit, coming back to earth only after his kick coverage crew has had time to converge on the ball's landing zone...

With their elite defense and special teams leading the way, no longer are the Patriots as reliant on Brady's performances as in times past - and good thing, because he and the offense appear to be mired in a funk that has rendered their running game moot, their passing game erratic and the scorekeeper in a Rasputin-like trance.

And while the Buffalo defense had something to do with holding down New England's offense to just ten points on the day, the bulk of the Patriots' problems were self-imposed.

Brady completed just 18 of 39 throws for a pedestrian 150 yards, missing high and low, intentionally grounding balls and throwing a momentum-killing interception from the Buffalo two-yard line that was so easy for Bills' safety Micah Hyde to catch that it wouldn't have been any easier to simply hand the ball to him.

Had the ball found a Patriots' receiver instead of the Bills' defender, it would have given New England a three-score lead and essentially ended the game for all intents and purposes, but instead the interception had an adverse effect on the offense and inspired the Buffalo defenders.

Hyde's second quarter end zone pick put a cap on the Patriots' best drive of the afternoon, a classic Brady-led possession that covered 75 yards in 16 plays and kept the Bills' defense on the field for over eight minutes of clock time, but ultimately served to shift the momentum away from New England's offense, which managed only 76 yards the rest of the way, Bailey punting the Patriots out of trouble six times in that span with his moon shots.

In fact, were it not for the elite special teams' play, the Patriots would have ended up with their first loss of the season.

New England drew first blood on a seven-play, fifty-yard drive, running back Brandon Bolden scoring on a four-yard scamper to the perimeter, but only able to put up six points as kicker Stephen Gostkowski missed his fourth extra point in as many games. The Patriots' defense rose up and stopped the Bills on their ensuing drive, Jackson sprinting in from the left side to block Corey Bojorquez' punt from the Buffalo 14...

...Slater scooping it up and running it into the end zone. Gostkowski hit the extra point to give New England a 13-0 lead and all of the momentum.

Three possessions later, that momentum evaporated with Hyde's end zone pick of Brady, and by the time the fourth quarter rolled around, the Patriots were in a dog fight with just a three-point cushion - but the stratospheric bombs from Bailey combined with a larcenous defense were enough to hold off the Bills' offense the rest of the way.

The defensive thievery started with a Devin McCourty interception in the first quarter, and continued on a leaping Jackson theft in the second and then a toe-dragging job in the third - then linebacker Jamie Collins ended any chance Buffalo had of overtaking New England with his third pick of the season, a fluttering butterfly caused by linebacker Kyle Van Noy's pressure of Bills' quarterback Matt Barkley that landed right in Collins' waiting hands.

Van Noy was the most productive and visible of the Patriots' stoppers on the day, logging two sacks among his eight tackles and three quarterback hits, While Collins, John Simon and rookie Chase Winovich collected the other three sacks.

In the end, and despite surrendering their first touchdown of the season, the New England stoppers still rank tops in the league in total defense and in scoring defense, opponents scoring just over a field goal per game, but the offense took a step in the wrong direction with Brady's misfires, his receivers dropping many of the balls that did make it to their hands, and with their running game stuck in neutral.

Fortunately, the Patriots have time to correct their offensive woes with games against the lowly Washington Redskins on tap next Sunday, followed by the New York Giants in a Thursday night tilt and the erratic New York Jets the following Monday night - and they'd better figure it out by then, with a visit from the Cleveland Browns and a trip to Baltimore looming before the Patriots' bye week in early November...

...a point in the season in which head ball coach Bill Belichick traditionally has his charges playing at their best - and they need to be with games at Philadelphia and Houston coupled with home games against Dallas and the mighty Kansas City Chiefs completing a brutal stretch against top shelf defensive units.

If they can't figure it out, the Patriots always have their defense to ride and an inspired special teams to help them out.

Brady is still a great player at age 42, and with the old mantra that goes "great players aren't great all the time; but are great when they need to be" on the table, Patriots' fans can rest assured that he will come through in the clutch like he always does.

Well, almost always.

Friday, April 21, 2017

Analysis: Patriots' Schedule A Matter Of Perspective


It's good to be the king...

The National Football League released the 2017 schedule on Thursday evening, and while the fans of the New England Patriots have known for weeks who their opponents were going to be, the schedule revealed the details - and the schedule makers couldn't have been any kinder to the defending champions.

But many are viewing the Patriots' overall schedule with gritted teeth - and that because of playing five of eight after the bye on the road, including three in a row in early December and two in a row in altitude in November - and those games will be challenging for sure, but things do tend to balance out.

How? Well first of all, the two games in altitude come at a fortuitous time, coming off of the midseason bye.

After playing two consecutive home games to close out the first half of the season, the Patriots take their bye in week 9, the effective two week break giving them many options to prepare for games at Denver and at Mexico City to play the Raiders - perhaps taking off for Denver on Tuesday or Wednesday to acclimate to the thinner air in the Rockies...

...then after playing the Broncos on that Sunday night, they will have the option to either stay in Denver or head straight for Mexico City, depending on the availability of venues in which to prepare for the Raiders.

After that two week stretch, the Patriots return home for the Dolphins, the go for three straight at Buffalo, Miami and Pittsburgh - but then end the regular season with two straight at home against the Bills and Jets.

According to my math, those circumstances neutralize both the disadvantage of playing two straight games in high altitude by giving the Patriots two weeks to prepare, physiologically, for the thin air of Denver and Mexico City, gives them two of their three game roadie against divisional opponents, then see them closing with two straight at home against divisional opponents.

The latter means that if the Patriots take care of their business down thew stretch and secure a first round bye after playing the Steelers in Pittsburgh on December 17th, they may not have to leave Foxborough for the following seven weeks until having to travel to Minneapolis to participate in Super Bowl LII.

So stress out all you want about the schedule, but the glass-half-full perspective shows that there is nothing goofy about the schedule-making - no conspiracies, no hanky-panky.  And the fact that they play five prime time contests and also play in two late-afternoon games scheduled for National Broadcasts means that Patriots' fans around the globe will be sure to catch nearly half of their schedule by doing nothing more than picking up their remote and clicking a couple of buttons.

Thursday, September 7 (8:30pm)
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

Raising the banner is always a special occasion, but the Patriots need to figure out where to put the sucker, as they have run out of room adjacent to the scoreboard.  But, alas, they will figure it out - and also get the opportunity to face a dangerous Chiefs' squad that won the tough AFC West last season before being scalped by the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Divisional round of the playoffs.

On the surface, the Chiefs did very little to improve upon last season, re-signing a couple of core players and signing TE Gavin Escobar while giving the ax to RB Jamal Charles - so don't look for them to improve much over their 20th ranked offense and 24th ranked defense.

Sunday, September 17 (1:00pm)
New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints
The Superdome, New Orleans. Louisiana

An early test for the Patriots' defense, as the Saints finished first in total offense in 2016 - but lost a playmaker when they traded WR Brandin Cooks to New England.  The Saints still have Drew Brees chucking the ball about and they signed former Panther Ted Ginn to try and replace Cooks' speed on the outside.

They still sport a terrible defense (27th overall, 31st in scoring defense), so the first round pick they got from New England in the Cooks trade will probably go toward shoring up their secondary, which ranked dead last in the NFL.

Sunday, September 24 (1:00pm)
Houston Texans at New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

The Texans have a great defense - tops in the NFL last season - and they have plenty of receiving weapons on offense, but no one to get the ball to them.  Unless Houston takes a quarterback in the draft, it will be third-year man Tom Savage pulling the trigger in the passing game.  Savage will have a top ten running game to keep the heat down to a minimum, but that might not be enough for them to repeat as the "Default" champions of a horrible AFC South...but then again, the division is so bad, it just might.

Sunday, October 1 (1:00pm)
Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

The Super Bowl that should have been in 2015, but the Panthers were a just a shadow of themselves in 2016 - but a play here or a play there and a little luck, and it would have been them winning the NFC South instead of the Atlanta Falcons.

The Panthers lost seven games by less than three points, and still finished with six wins.  Fighting through injuries, they were able to hold things together, and now they have almost all of their weapons returning healthy.  Don't let the Panthers' record fool you, they were nowhere near as bad as their record indicated.

Thursday, October 5 (8:25pm)
New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida

Scary team on the rise.  The Bucs tripped over themselves coming out of the gate in 2016, losing five of their first eight, four of those losses dropping close decisions to eventual playoff teams, then went 6-2 down the stretch to make a valiant run at the post-season, but coming up just short, beating the likes of Kansas City, Seattle and Atlanta in the process.

Sunday, October 15 (1:00pm)
New England Patriots at New York Jets
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey

Sunday, December 31 (1:00pm)
New York Jets at New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

The Jets come into this season is full rebuilding mode, and with a coach who is squarely on the hot seat.  A team with nothing to lose - especially a hated division rival - is a very dangerous team.  Unfortunately for the Jets, they come into the season without a quarterback of any note, offensive and defensive lines in disarray and zero weapons.  Tough go for the Jets.

Sunday, October 22 (8:30pm)
Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

How motivated are the Falcons going to be to cone into Foxborough and give the Patriots a taste of the whip?  This game is the crown jewel of the NFL's first half and a chance for the Falcons to gain some measure of respect after having their hearts ripped out of their chests in the Super Bowl.

Problem is, Atlanta will be fielding a team that is essentially the same as it was in February, a team that gave New England all they could handle and then some, but eventually wore down and blew a 25 point lead.  We all know the story, now the Falcons want some payback.

Sunday, October 29 (1:00pm)
Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

The second of tow consecutive home games to finish up the first half of the season heading into their bye, the Patriots should have a decided advantage over the helter-skelter Chargers - but this team should not be taken lightly.

Playing in the toughest division in all of football, the Chargers went 1-5 in the division, but taking the Chiefs into overtime and playing the Raiders tough before dropping heartbreakers, and splitting their series with the Denver Broncos - in between beating good teams from Atlanta, Tennessee and Houston.  The Chargers have inherent talent, but not the the intestinal fortitude to finish off an opponent.  We'll see if that improves with a new coaching staff.

Sunday, November 12 (8:30pm)
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado

The Broncos may all well be the Patriots' division rivals, having played each other at least once a year since the 2011 season, New England going 6-3 against the Broncos in nine tries in that time span - with two of their losses coming in conference championship games played at Denver.

So no one has to remind Patriots' fans of the consequence of playing the Broncos.  They have a great defense and plenty of weapons on offense, but their quarterback situation took a step back last season after they let Brock Osweiller leave in free agency, as he had already proven that his skill set was a good match for what Denver liked to do with the football.  But altitude aside, the Broncos are always a tough matchup.

Sunday, November 19 (4:25pm)
New England Patriots vs. Oakland Raiders
Azteca Stadium, Mexico City, Mexico

Denver may be known as the Mile High City, but Mexico City has them beat by a full third of a mile. Playing the Broncos in Denver the previous week will act as an impromptu hyperbaric chamber for the Patriots, allowing them to acclimate to being a mile above sea level in advance of traveling to Mexico City, which one can reasonably expect to happen immediately after their Sunday night gig in Denver.

The Raiders are as high-powered on offense as any team the Patriots will play all season, though their defense leaves them scratching and clawing to score enough points to win.  The Raiders bitch-kitty is their run defense, and the Patriots have four excellent running backs to rotate in and out to keep their running game fresh...

Sunday, November 26 (1:00pm)
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

Monday, December 11 (8:30pm)
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida

The Dolphins are always a tough draw, and the fact that they play each other twice in a span of three weeks doesn't make that any easier for either team.  Miami may have made the playoffs last year, but did so ranked in the bottom third of the NFL on both sides of the ball.  The difference between the Dolphins and most other teams on the Patriots' schedule, however, is that they have the stones to finish tight games.

Many will remember their comeback and near upset of New England in Foxborough early last season when the Dolphins scored 21 unanswered points to close within a touchdown of the Patriots, and were threatening to tie the game up with seconds to play until safety Duron Harmon picked off quarterback Ryan Tannehill in the end zone to salvage the win.

One can expect the same effort from Miami this time around as well, as the current staff seems to have the team headed in the right direction.

Sunday, December 3 (1:00pm)
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Ralph Wilson Stadium, Orchard Park, New York

Sunday, December 24 (1:00pm)
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

This is another instance when the Patriots have to play a division rival twice in a short period of time.  The first was when the Patriots and Dolphins combined to make a Buffalo sandwich in between their contests, and now the Patriots have to play the Bills twice in four weeks, with the Dolphins and Steelers on the docket in between.

The Bills have plenty of talent on offense and play an explosive brand of football, though most of the explosion comes from their dynamic running game, but in contrast, the Bills defense can't stop the opposition's running game to save their lives.  Their saving grace had been their secondary, that is until New England lured cornerback Stephon Gilmore away.

With all of the speed Buffalo has in their receiving corps, they just don't make enough plays in the passing game to keep opposing defenses honest, averaging a mere 190 passing yards per game in 2016.  But a new regime is taking over in Buffalo and, of course, when it comes to playing the champs, every team has a little more motivation.


Monday, October 3, 2016

Bills Catch Patriots Short-Handed, Literally; Record Rare Shutout


The New England Patriots are flat out of quarterbacks.

At least, they were on Sunday afternoon, when the obviously damaged rookie signal caller Jacoby Brissett gave it the old college try what with a makeshift tape job around his injured thumb that fooled no one and an offensive game plan that rivaled Ben & Jerry's ice cream for vanilla content - but a college try wasn't going to work against a professional football team...

...even against the Buffalo Bills, who hadn't had a win against the Patriots that was significant in the AFC East standings in five years and hadn't shut them out in a baker's dozen, and certainly not with a series of play calls in the first half that made one think that offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels had Herman Boone in his headset, running the veer and assuring boy wonder that it was just like
Quarterback Jacoby Brissett coughs up one of five Patriots' fumbles
novocaine, give it time and it always works.

The defensive game plan was a little tougher to figure out.

One would think that with Buffalo's deep threat Sammy Watkins on the shelf, that the Patriots would have concentrated with stopping the run and keeping quarterback Tyrod Taylor in the pocket, not allowing him to the wings where he does much of his best work - and it's not as if Taylor set the world on fire against New England, but he really didn't need to.

Buffalo artfully mixed the run and the pass to their advantage as New England appeared to play full coverage down the field to eliminate speed merchant Marquis Goodwin from the equation - presumably to force Buffalo to have to grind out yardage and use up time off the clock - and while that goes against every tenet of defensive football, the impact of the plan would have been successful had the Patriots gotten anything out of the offense at all...

...as confirmed not only by the meager point that Buffalo managed, they won 16-0, but also by the fact that they managed only nine possessions - and after the initial surge to start the game in which they built a thirteen point lead on a touchdown and two field goals on their first three drives, the Patriots' held the Bills to just three more points while forcing four punts.

It makes a certain sort of sense, an overmatched team playing a bend-but-don't-break style of defense, giving up yardage at a clip of four yards per play and making critical stops on third down, the relying on your special teams to flip field position to give your offense a chance to put enough points on the board to counter. 

If it works, you're a genius and if it doesn't - well - you get what we saw on Sunday afternoon.

Ideally, the defense did what they had to do even though it didn't play to their strengths, but the special teams - especially the kick return teams - were atrocious and the offense was so imbalanced that the Bills were ready for everything New England tried to do, and even when the Patriots got something positive going, penalties murdered their momentum.

The limitations to the forced game plan eschewed balance, though the final numbers - 27 passing plays compared to 22 running plays - are deceiving.  The Patriots totaled just 17 offensive plays in the first half, with 14 of those handoffs.  The numbers reversed in the second half as Brissett, bad thumb and all, threw the ball 24 times and handed off just eight times.

The disparity between the number of plays run by each team, 71-47 in favor of Buffalo, wasn't as glaring considering that the Patriots were more efficient with their plays - gaining nearly a yard-and-a-half more per play than Buffalo - and also considering that the Patriots had a whopping 139 yards erased by penalty...

...ninety of that on the first offensive play of the game on what was deemed to be offensive pass interference on receiver Chris Hogan, calling back a beautiful catch and run in the flat by Julian Edelman, and apparently deflating the Patriots' offense at the same moment.

How badly deflated? well, considering that the Patriots had just one first down at halftime and converted just once on third down the entire game in twelve tries, it is safe to assume that New England blew their first half wad on that first play from scrimmage. 

The only thing that New England's offense seemed to have going for it was their play calling on the first play of possessions, gaining a first down seven different times, four of those coming via Brissett finding tight end Martellus Bennett, who had something of a career day, his 109 receiving yards representing just his fourth 100 yard receiving day and his 58 yard catch and run in the second quarter the longest of his career.

The only other thing that was working was the running game, Patriots' power back LeGarrette Blount rumbling for 54 yards on 13 carries until McDaniels all but abandoned the ground attack in the second half after featuring it almost exclusively in the first half - obviously, the balance was there for New England overall, but it turned out to be a tale of two halfs with no balance in the play calling otherwise.

For all of the grumbling, the defense played decently, giving up 16 points and an acceptable 248 passing yards despite being on the field for just shy of 40 minutes.

Still, the scapegoat for the defense in this scenario was cornerback Logan Ryan, who drew underneath coverages on tight ends and running backs and, on a few less-than-memorable occasions, on the Bills' speedy wideouts, but the fact of the matter is that Ryan, Justin Coleman and even Malcolm Butler gave up key receptions that extended Buffalo drives.

On third down, the Bills were able to convert seven times out of 15 attempts, with Ryan and Butler giving up one a piece and Coleman two, but where the Bills were really successful was on second down, where they were able to pick up half of their twenty-four on the game, many of them on second and long plays.

The fact that Ryan was playing what was essentially the role of a strong safety spoke to the weird game plan, as the three safety Big Nickle look that has been successful against the likes of Arizona, Miami and Houston was abandoned in favor of a standard nickle, with Ryan and Justin Coleman being abused by the quick Buffalo receivers...

...and combined with Jabaal Sheard and Chris Long assigned to funnel everything towards the middle of the field, the Bills were able to run off left tackle - where Sheard or Long would have been otherwise - for a significant portion of their rushing yardage.

The good news for the defense is that they adjusted well after spotting Buffalo their thirteen point lead. In that onslaught to start the game, Buffalo picked up 244 of their 378 total yards for the game, allowing just 83 passing yards in the second half to go along with 51 rushing yards, a terrific effort despite being n the field for so long in the first half.

It goes without saying that having a healthy quarterback would have made a huge difference for New England's offense - either a healthy Brissett or Jimmy Garoppolo would have been enough to at least match what Buffalo could muster - but now the Patriots have back their regular starting signal caller as Tom Brady's suspension is over and he's set to take over, tanned, rested and ready.

Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Safeties Play Key Role In Patriots Rugged Win Over Bills

Patriots corners Logan Ryan (26) and Malcolm Butler (21) frustrated Buffalo's receivers all evening
The New England Patriots have one of the deepest safety corps in the National Football League, and on Monday night, they all showed up.

Short on cornerbacks and facing a Buffalo Bills team with a plethora of speedy weapons and a dangerously mobile quarterback, Patriots' head ball coach Bill Belichick called on his blue liners to help out in coverage - and while it wasn't always aesthetically pleasing to the milk and cookies crowd, the football purists saw a game for the ages...

...a brutal struggle between division rivals in which the undefeated world champions dug deep - both into their guts and their depth chart - to grind out a 20-13 win over the Buffalo Bills at Gillette Stadium and in front of a National audience who witnessed two defensive savants collide in one of the hardest hitting games of the season.

Patrick Chung is a regular at the strong safety position, playing in the box and taking on running backs and tight ends, but left those guys to seldom used fellow safety Tavon Wilson and linebacker Dont'a Hightower in favor of handling wide receivers, while reserve safeties Nate Ebner and Brandon King flexed their considerable muscles on special teams...

...and free safeties Devin McCourty and Duron Harmon protected the deep third of the field, playing over the top of their besieged compatriots, McCourty perfectly playing a deep ball to Buffalo running back LeSean McCoy in the end zone, knocking the ball from his grip and forcing the Bills to attempt a field goal, one that Bills' kicker Dan Carpenter bounced off the upright, setting up the Patriots' offense in good field position for their first touchdown.

It wasn't perfect by any stretch of the imagination - what with Buffalo receiver Chris Hogan breaking free for big chunks of yardage, and Chung getting away with what appeared to be an obvious pass interference and Butler actually being flagged for one that was just as obvious - but they made enough plays to get off the field on third down, holding the Bills to an abysmal 3 of 15 on such occasions.

The New England defense came into Monday night's game riding a streak of four consecutive games holding opponents rushing games under 100 yards and holding opposing passers under 300 yards in seven out of their previous nine games - and they managed to extend both.

Buffalo's fourth ranked running game got close, gaining 94 yards - but it took 30 carries to reach that mark, and were it not for McCoy breaking loose for a 27-yard touchdown early in the second half, the Bill's output of 3.1 yards per carry would have been much worse, as Hightower, fellow linebacker Jerod Mayo and defensive end Jabaal Sheard combined to keep Bills' runners between the tackles.

Bills' quarterback Tyrod Taylor finished the game 20 of 36 for 233 yards, but was just 13 of 24 for a paltry 135 yards before the Patriots went up by two scores and forced them to the air late in the game, as corners Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan were spectacular in coverage once again, Butler on Buffalo's top threat Sammy Watkins while Ryan concentrated on possession man Robert Woods, neither having any significant impact on the game.

Things really weren't much better for the Patriots' offense as, in fact, they missed on more opportunities than the Bills' offense did, causing the score to be not as lopsided as it could have been.

New England quarterback Tom Brady also completed 20 passes, but took 39 attempts to get there with a half dozen thrown into the turf in the general direction of a receiver and he also had a ball tipped for another red zone interception, all while taking more hits than an acid freak at a Grateful Dead concert, his one touchdown throw coming on a designed wheel route to running back James White who broke a tackle on the sideline to finish a 20 yard catch and run...

...who also scored on a six yard power blast off right tackle halfway through the third period that proved to be the winning points. In all, White averaged 7 yards per carry and 16 yards per reception in spot duty, while lead back LeGarrette Blount - after being stymied for just four yards in the first half - broke out for 52 yards in the four minute offense in the second half.

In all, the Patriots averaged four yards per carry against the Bills', something that they are going to have to increasingly rely on with the injury situation faced by New England, a situation that got incrementally worse as the game wore on.

Fragile speedster Aaron Dobson appeared to hurt his ankle on his one catch for the evening, but the bigger blow was to Amendola, who put up Edelman-like numbers for the second game in a row, but pulled up lame with what the Patriots are calling a knee injury. Amendola is scheduled for a Tuesday MRI, and while the obvious hope is that he's suffered just a sprain, the fact alone that he's even having the procedure speaks to him missing some games.

What that means to the offense remains to be seen, but if the Patriots can go forward improvising with their pass catching corps like they did with the safeties improvising as corners, they should be just fine until their fallen start to return...

In the end, however, this game was all about defense with the Patriots' criminally underrated unit battering Buffalo's Taylor into submission, sacking him twice and roughing him up on a half a dozen more occasions, a hit by Patriots' linebacker Rob Ninkovich reducing him to tossing Peyton Manning-like ducks down the field during crunch time, grimacing with each movement of his passing shoulder.

There is no reason to expect anything but a similar product this coming Sunday evening in Denver, where is will be Brock Osweiler tossing the rock while the aforementioned Manning gets treatment for his various ailments...

...and with the Patriots receiving corps eerily resembling the unit that Belichick fielded in the 2013 AFC Championship game in Denver - one that had just two healthy receivers and no tight ends of any mention - another tough-it-out game should be expected if New England is to remain undefeated and clinch the AFC East.

But this time around the Patriots have one Rob Gronkowski healthy, a decent power running game and a top rated defensive unit to fall back on if all else fails - but these are the New England Patriots, and you don't hear the word "fail" very often when considering what they can bring to the table, be it regular starters or the next man up.


Sunday, September 20, 2015

Brady On Fire, Defense Records Eight Sacks And Three Picks In Win Over Bills

Nobody circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills.

That mantra hasn't changed much since ESPN's Chris Berman coined the phrase to describe the comeback capabilities of the Bills, and on Sunday afternoon in Orchard Park, New York, the Bills proved that it still applies - but the one thing conspicuously absent from the equation is that in order for the Buffalo Bills to circle the wagons, they first have to give up huge leads to their opposition.

And that is exactly what the Bills did against the New England Patriots, as they allowed quarterback Tom Brady to throw for 466 yards and three touchdown passes behind a patchwork offensive line, while tight end Rob Gronkowski and running back Dion Lewis each gained more than 100 yards of total offense, then fell just short of what would have been an epic comeback, eventually falling to the world champions by a score of 40-32.

The final score is not indicative of the dominance displayed by the champs for a majority of the game, carrying a 37-13 advantage into the fourth quarter, when Buffalo followed up a 10 play, 80 yard drive by taking advantage of the Patriots turning the ball over on consecutive possessions - once on downs and once on a Brady fumble to give the Bills a short field...

...scoring on drives of just seven and two plays, respectively, to close the gap to just five points with over four minutes left to play, but a Logan Ryan interception stopped the bleeding and secured the victory that left the Bills' fans broken-hearted and boosted the Patriots record to 2-0 on the young season.

The Bills came into the game with a reputation for being a pack of speedy sack artists, licking their chops in anticipation of dominating New England's young interior offensive line, but it was the Patriots' pass rush that came away with a headline-grabbing eight sacks of Buffalo quarterback Tyrod Taylor while the Bills pass rush fell victim to Brady's quick reads and even quicker release, logging just two sacks for the game.

Chandler Jones led the onslaught with three sacks and Jamie Collins followed that up with 2.5 on the afternoon as the Patriots' defense held the Bills to 160 total yards through three quarters - exactly half of that total coming on the first drive of the game - in building a 24 point lead. Outside of that initial drive, the Patriots defense forced Buffalo's offense into five three-and-outs and picked off Taylor twice in that span.

But Buffalo found their legs in the fourth quarter, scoring three touchdowns in ten minutes of game time and found themselves with a slim opportunity to tie the game at the end, but needing to drive 80 yards in 1:15 and working with no time outs before Ryan's first pick of the season ended any hope the Bills had of circling the wagons one last time.

Linebacker Rob Ninkovich and defensive tackle Alan Branch contributed sacks, while Malcolm Butler and Duron Harmon added interceptions to contribute to Buffalo's demise.

One thing that the Bills did consistently well was run the ball, averaging six yards a pop against a porous New England run defense with running back LeSean McCoy doing the majority of the damage on 15 carries for 89 yards, though Taylor boosted the average on five scrambles for 43 yards and a rushing touchdown.

Taylor was generally on target, as his 23 of 30 for 242 yards and three touchdowns will attest and, combined with Buffalo's 160 yards on the ground, they should have had more to show for their day, but three interceptions combined with 14 penalties for an absurd 140 yards were just too much to overcome.
Andrews (60) and the Patriots' line protected Brady well

The Patriots weren't perfect by any means, logging 11 flags themselves for over a hundred yards, losing two fumbles and turning the ball over on downs two different times - and the Bills turned most of those gaffes into points.

Lewis solidified his position as the Patriots' passing back - and lead back for the second straight game despite putting the ball on the ground again - by averaging nearly six yards each on his seven carries and catching six balls for 98 yards, which was second on the team behind tight end Rob Gronkowski's seven carries for 113 yards and a score.

Julian Edelman put in his usual yeoman's effort with 11 receptions for 97 yards and two touchdowns while Aaron Dobson made his presence felt by taking in seven of Brady's offerings for 87 yards.

Initially, it appeared that the Bills had the Patriots figured out, as Taylor and running back LeSean McCoy gouged the Patriots defense for 56 yards on their first drive, capped off by a two yard Karlos Williams run to give Buffalo an early 7-0 lead, then held New England on a three-and-out on their first possession - but just as they did against the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Patriots went with three safeties to get eight in the box...

...stopping the Bills with a three-and-out of their own on the next series, Ninkovich's sack forcing a punt. New England scored the first of three consecutive touchdowns on their ensuing possession, Brady hitting Dobson for 17 yards and Gronkowski for 36 before Edelman tied the score with a seven yard touchdown reception.

A Collins sack ruined Buffalo's next possession, forcing the Bills to punt from their own endzone, Danny Amendola returning the ball all the way down to the Buffalo 27, where the first of several personal fouls was assessed on the Bills, setting up Brady at the 14 yard line, then Lewis scoring on a tough run from 6 yards out to give the Patriots a lead they would not relinquish.

Butler's interception just seconds into the second quarter ended yet another ugly Bills' possession and gave the ball to Brady at the Buffalo 30, catches of 16 by Lewis and seven by Dobson preceding an easy pitch and catch between Brady and Gronkowski and a 21-7 New England lead.

Another Jones sack and Lewis' second fumble in as many games came to no harm to either team, but a failed deep pass on 4th and 1 from midfield by the Patriots gave Buffalo a break they needed to climb back into the game, a 39-yard pass interference penalty on Patriots corner Bradley Fletcher contributing greatly to a resultant Bills' touchdown - a nine yard toss to Buffalo tight end Charles Clay closing the gap, but kicker Dan Carpenter missed the extra point wide right to leave the score at 21-13.

A Stephen Gostkowski field goal made the score 24-13 with just over two minutes left in the half, a score that held up thanks to Harmon's second interception of the season that ended a promising Buffalo drive and sent the teams into the locker rooms.

New England's initial drive of the second half stalled at the Buffalo three and Gostkowski salvaged three points out of it to make the score 27-13, but after the next Bills' possession went nowhere, Brady hit Edelman with a 22 yard scoring strike for what would eventually be the game winner - and after Branch and Collins sacked Taylor on consecutive plays to end Buffalo's next possession, Gostkowski hit another trey to give New England a 24 point lead heading into the final frame.

That's when the Buffalo Bills circled the wagons.

Having already been dropped by Collins and Dont'a Hightower for a shared sack on their first possession of the fourth quarter, Taylor found room to pass when escaping the pocket, hitting receiver Robert Woods in the end zone for 32 yards and a touchdown - but only trimming New England's lead by six when their two-point conversion failed.

Another fourth and one from near midfield produced the same doomed play call on the Patriots' next drive as in the first half, Buffalo taking over on downs and driving 59 yards on seven plays, Taylor scoring from seven yards out on a designed quarterback draw, but again only trimming the lead by only six points as another two-point conversion failed and left Buffalo trailing by 12 with five and a half minutes remaining in the game...

...but a strip sack of Brady by Bills' linebacker Jerry Hughes gave the ball right back to Buffalo at midfield, Taylor finding receiver Sammy Watkins for 24 yards on just the second play of the possession, and the extra point made the score 37-32 with over four minutes left in the game, and Buffalo with two time outs.

Gostkowski's fourth field goal of the day increased the Patriots' lead to eight with just over a minute to play in the game, but Ryan intercepted a tipped ball at midfield to preserve the New England victory that became much harder than it should have been.

After the game, Bills' coach Rex Ryan was adamant that he was out-coached by Belichick and that was the reason his team lost, but as noble as it is for him to take one for the team, the simple fact of the matter is that his team's lack of discipline - resulting in the fourteen penalties - and the miscues on special teams that left five points on the field were the actual culprits...

...not to mention that his pass rushers couldn't punch through the crust of the Patriots' offensive line to pressure Brady and that his pass defense had no answer for neither Brady, Gronkowski, Edelman, nor Lewis - while Ryan's offensive line had no solution for the Patriots' pass rush.

Obviously, both teams will need to improve going forward, with the onus being more on Buffalo - not just because this loss drops them a game behind New England in the standings, but also because they have to pick up the pieces and take their act to Miami, where a Dolphins' team coming off a humiliating loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars will be waiting for them...

...the loser of that game likely to be a full two games behind New England as those same Jaguars will be visiting Foxborough next Sunday looking for their second consecutive upset of an AFC East opponent - which isn't likely, unless they can stop a Patriots' offense that has scored 68 points in two games, something that Buffalo's top five defense didn't even come close to doing on Sunday afternoon.

Saturday, September 19, 2015

Trifecta Of Backs, Twin Towers At Tight End The Keys For Patriots Offense On Sunday


"We're not going to ask one guy to cover him. Yeah, he'd have to look like King Kong." - Rex Ryan

Seems as if Rex Ryan has some sort of preternatural occupation with New England Patriots' tight end Rob Gronkowski. And why not? Gronkowski is the irresistible force that no one has been able to produce an immovable object to combat - and since the two sides of the omnipotence paradox can not exist together, the best anyone can do is just try to contain him.

But to do that means a combined effort from multiple defenders, as Ryan so astutely observed, though it stands to figure that King Kong has prior obligations and probably isn't available.

The polar opposite of being a polarizing figure, perhaps there is a sitcom in Gronkowski's future after football, something as unoriginal as Everybody Loves Gronk, because you just can't help but like the guy. He's fun-loving and with the world at his fingertips on his days off, but when he's on duty and the lights are on, he's as old school as you could want.

In fact, Gronkowski's talent and mindset transcends time, as he would have been a formidable opponent and the best tight end in the game regardless of era, because he can play the game any way you want - as in addition to his obvious receiving and route running skills, he is perhaps one of the better blocking tight ends in the game as well, particularly when pulling from the outside into the interior of the line, delivering a devastating wham block.

Maybe two or three tight ends in history could be mentioned in the same neighborhood as Gronkowski as far as all-around talent possessing all of the physical tools - but when one hears a coach talk that way about an opponent, it goes far beyond respect for the talent of an athlete, because what Gronkowski possesses is something that can't be coached...

...an excitement of playing the game that is irresistible to friend and foe alike that, combined with top shelf natural ability and Herculean size and strength, makes him the best tight end in the game with a chance to become the greatest of all time, given health and maintaining his current production.

And it truly doesn't hurt to have perhaps the greatest quarterback of all time tossing him the rock.

So it's no wonder why Ryan would make statements bordering on the absurd in recognizing the problems inherent with game planning for two of the best players in the NFL this coming Sunday who is part of a supporting cast that fits what the Patriots do offensively like a glove.

When one looks at the Patriots' depth chart at the so-called "skill positions", it becomes apparent and obvious that there are no weaknesses, at least not any that would make enough of a difference to game plan for, what with Julian Edelman leading a group of dynamic playmakers as one of the toughest covers in the league, and a backfield consisting of a Sherman tank in LeGarrette Blount and a couple of passing backs with video game-like moves in the open field.

That leaves only the offensive line for Ryan and his Buffalo Bills' defense to attack with what may be the best defensive line in the league anchoring one of the best defenses in the game - and attack it they will, but at what cost?

The Bills are built to pressure the quarterback and, one would think with such large bodies up front, to stop the run as well -  but the front seven were merely middle of the pack in run defense last season while giving up 4.1 yards per carry to opposing runners, and picked up right where they left off against the Indianapolis Colts in last weekend's season opener, with essentially the same personnel as they fielded in 2014.

That could prove to be an issue for Rex Ryan's defense as the Colts' dismal ground game is no match for the Patriots' dynamic attack, with Blount and free agent newcomer Dion Lewis providing New England with a potentially lethal thunder-and-lightning approach to the ground attack.

Their running styles couldn't be more different, as the 250 pound Blount trudges through gaps like syrup on waffles, tacklers bouncing off of him like he was made of flubber, while Lewis slices through openings with an explosive first step, then makes people miss on the second level with a variety of ankle-breaking moves.

James White has elusiveness as well, as does former New Orleans Saint Travaris Cadet, who could see his first action of the season on Sunday, though neither of these players contribute to the running game to the extent that they warrant special attention - that comes when they are in the pattern, however, as both are excellent receivers...

...In fact, Cadet shouldn't even be considered a running back, as he was actually a wide receiver in college and will often line up split wide or in the slot, which may be the reason why New England has kept just four receivers on their roster while waiting for Brandon Lafell to come off the PUP list. Cadet is a taller back at 6' 1" and makes an enticing target underneath the zone and as a safety valve.

Another reason that the Patriots have kept just four receivers is because of Gronkowski, who is the number one pass catching option on the offense, and this season is teamed with former Buffalo Bills tight end Scott Chandler, giving New England a set of towering bookends, the likes of which the NFL has never seen - and with which the Patriots abused the Pittsburgh Steelers pass defenders in their season opener.

The New England offense is no joke. Even with Lafell out for a few more weeks, there are still too many weapons able to line up in too many different spots to properly account for everyone logistically, particularly given that Gronkowski demands double teams, which will take a linebacker and a safety out of each play.

So how does Buffalo combat such a volatile lineup? Simply, they have to get to Brady before he has a chance to fire the ball off to one of his weapons - and with three of their linemen posting double-digit sack totals last season, they are equipped to do just that.

Especially considering that New England's offensive line is a work in progress on the interior where their starting center is a rookie playing in just his second NFL game, flanked by a guard rotation that features two similarly inexperienced rookies along with third-year utility man Josh Kline, which to the Buffalo rushers has to look like what fresh meat does to a shark.

The Bills pass rush was lead by defensive end Mario Williams, who posted an impressive 14.5 sacks in 2014, with fellow defensive end Jerry Hughes and massive defensive tackle Marcell Dareus chipping in with ten apiece - and combined with run-plugging defensive tackle Kyle Williams notching 5.5 sacks and his the backups notching seven between them, the Bills' defensive linemen accounted for 47 of the Bills' 54 sacks on the season.

That's a crazy 87% of the pass rushing production that came from just their defensive line, with the remainder split up between a couple of linebackers and defensive backs - but under Rex Ryan, those numbers are likely to increase, as Ryan enjoys sending pressure from the second level.

Buffalo may be engaged in too many underneath routes to be concerned with sending extra men after Brady, however, as Gronkowski, Chandler and the trifecta of passing backs present a formidable challenge to the linebackers and safeties. All have the ability to break off routes and get big if they see the pocket collapsing, a key component to Brady's unmatched ability to make defenses pay for sending a linebacker or a safety.

So assuming that Buffalo plays defense straight up, their best chance of containing Gronkowski - or at least holding the damage he causes to a minimum - is to have strong side linebacker Manny Lawson as part of the coverage team.

At 6' 5" and 240 pounds, there may not be a better matchup on Gronkowski or on the Patriots' offense as a whole than Lawson, who brings sub 4.5 speed into the mix, meaning that he has the size-speed ration to hang with Gronkowski in the pattern and to be effective in bringing him down after the catch - as indicated by the 22 passes defended and three interceptions on his career resume.

Weak side edge setter Nigel Bradham could see some time on Gronkowski or on Chandler as well, which takes care of the tight ends, but doesn't begin to consider what Belichick might have up his cut-off sleeves when it comes to the backs and receivers - for certain, if Cadet is healthy he will be deployed out wide in spread formations, while the other backs work best from the pro set. from where they can curl into the pattern if not picking up the blitz.

It's going to be interesting to see how Ryan deploys his corners when the Patriots go 22 personnel and there is only one wide receiver on the field.  Bills' fourth-year corner Stephon Gilmore told reporters this week that he wants a shot at Gronkowski, and it is conceivable that he would be in a rotation to help out on the man-child, leaving rookie corner Ronald Darby on whatever receiver Belichick decides to trot out onto the field...

...which is more than likely going to be Edelman. Regardless, however the game plan evolves, Ryan will likely bring his defensive backs right up on the line in press man in an attempt to prevent both the quick out and the jailbreak screen and force Brady to his second or third read in hopes that by the time he sizes up his second or third read, the pass rush will be in his face.

This opens up a potential can of worms for Ryan, though, as bringing his secondary up opens the seam and slant routes to Gronkowski and Chandler and, as always, makes the defense as a whole susceptible the trap draw. The tight ends and backs should see a healthy dose of safeties Bacarri Rambo and Aaron Williams, with either Corey Graham or Duke Williams holding down the blue line.

That said, Belichick's best option lies with running the ball with success early. Run the ball straight into the heart of Buffalo's run defense. Fundamentally a sound tactic as the more a team runs the ball, the more the defense has to account for defending the entire field. Running the ball slows down the pass rush and occupies the linebackers just long enough to make the blitz a 50/50 proposition.

Will that be enough to dictate terms to Ryan? Doubtful, as when he was with the New York Jets he pressured quarterbacks with extra rushers regardless of circumstances, and his teams have always seemed to give the Patriots as tough a game as they'll find anywhere - and now that he has a better overall defense than he had in New York, the sky is the limit.

Just don't look for King Kong to be lining up with his defense, though Ryan would probably be able to find a way to turn the giant ape into pretty decent defender...


Thursday, September 17, 2015

Gap Integrity, Edge Containment Key for Patriots' Defense Against Bills

The Buffalo Bills weren't hard to figure out last season, nor are they that hard to figure out this year.

A big win over Green Bay and going 4-2 in the AFC East with lopsided dominance over the New York Jets in 2014 were negated by bad losses to the likes of Oakland and Houston. And, of course, one of their wins was over the New England Patriots on the last day of the season - a Patriots' squad that was resting a majority of their starters and still lost only by a touchdown.

Regardless, posting nine wins was a boon for the hungry Bills' fans, who hadn't seen their team finish at or above .500 in a decade, nor had they experienced a trip to the playoffs since Wade Phillips led them to the postseason in 1998 and 1999 with Doug Flutie under center - and if those fans are to be believed, all that was missing that would have made the 2014 Buffalo Bills a playoff team was attitude and intensity.

Oh, and a quarterback.

So imagine how stoked the fans were when the ownership went out and snagged a big dose of attitude and intensity in hiring former New York Jets' coach Rex Ryan to lead the team this season who, after being crushed by the Bills twice last season, had to figure that it was easier to join them than to try and beat them.
Sheard came up huge vs Steelers, and will be counted on vs Bills

Despite his jocular playfulness with the media, Ryan is all business. Intense and considered by many to be on a level approaching that of New England Patriots' head ball coach Bill Belichick when it comes to defensive genius, Ryan takes over a team that had one of the best defenses in the NFL combined with an offense that was a player or two short of escaping mediocrity.

The problems on offense weren't tough for Ryan to address in the offseason, as most of the issue came down to health of the skill position players, adequacy along the offensive line and the fact that their quarterback was a much traveled and now retired 32 year old Kyle Orton, who was backed up by the equally unimpressive EJ Manuel.

So Ryan dumped his oft-injured running backs C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson in favor of former Philadelphia Eagles' All Pro runner LeSean McCoy, allowed physically limited tight end Scott Chandler to escape to New England in favor of former Miami Dolphins move tight end Charles Clay and reworked the offensive line by drafting Louisville slugger John Miller to man right guard and signing former Dolphins' bully Richie Incognito to take over at left guard.

Ryan also improved his pass catching ranks by bringing former Jet Percy Harvin along for the ride and adding him to a receiving corps that already featured more speed than one would find from a back-alley pusher, and is welcoming back Marquise Goodwin from the injured list.

The only question that remained was who would be throwing the ball to them, with Ryan answering by naming former Baltimore Ravens' fifth-year career backup Tyrod Taylor as his starting signal caller, rendering the disappointing Manuel and journeyman Matt Cassell to being clipboard holders, and putting in play the boot option which Ryan seems to prefer over pure pocket passing.

On Paper, that should be enough to put the Bills in playoff contention, despite the inexperience at quarterback, given that Ryan returns nearly every member of that top five defense that added Florida State speedster Ronald Darby to their already excellent secondary - but while his offense dominated the Indianapolis Colts in the first half of their season opener last Sunday, the entire team tailed off badly in the second half, allowing the Colts to make a comeback that fell short due to their own ineptitude.

The Patriots likely will not fall victim to the same manner of ineptitude, but must take into account the improvements made by Ryan and his staff - and it all starts with stopping the run and getting pressure on Taylor.

One game does not a season make, but the tale of two halves represent perhaps a gap between all of Buffalo's talent and their ability to morph with their opponents' adjustments, not to mention their lack of discipline - particularly along their offensive line - as an inordinate number of penalties helped to contribute to stalled drives.

Actually, the best drive the Bills put together all day was an 11 play, 80 yard effort which showed that the Bills can maintain and extend drives with balance, as Taylor threw 4 times for 48 yards while the Bills ground game contributed 27 yards on seven carries - with the remainder of their scoring drives being of the quick, big play variety as Buffalo found paydirt on two series of five plays each.

Buffalo showed great balance in their scoring onslaught through the first half, capped off by the beauty of a drive to start the second half and surviving multiple holding penalties on their offensive linemen, but faltered after that point to net just 52 total yards and three points in the five series spanning most of the third quarter and all of the fourth...

...as holding penalties on the line and the Colts ability to pressure Taylor into quick, off-target throws doomed those drives - and that is what the Patriots' defense should be concentrating on in order to even the odds against a talented Buffalo offense.

In spite of the reworking of the line, Buffalo is still dealing with two incumbent tackles who are nowhere near elite. Cordy Glenn is employed to protect Taylor's blind side, yet he was the man primarily responsible for the line's breakdown in the second half, being called for holding twice and generally being a turnstile that allowed drive-altering pressure on the quarterback time and again.

Center Eric Wood, also an incumbent that Ryan couldn't find anyone to replace, had a tough time of it in the second half as well - which shouldn't be that surprising given that all of the linemen are drive-blocking maulers with limited pass protection ability, meaning that first and foremost, the Patriots must concentrate of stopping the run this Sunday, putting the inexperienced Taylor in the pocket on third down behind his shaky pass pro line.

Last Thursday, the Pittsburgh Steelers spread out the Patriots' defense by deploying speed on the outside, much like what the Bills will be able to do, the difference being that Taylor is no Ben Roethlisberger, and the Buffalo offensive line has  a ways to go to match the protection that Pittsburgh's line gave their thrower...

...especially on the wings where Seantrel Henderson is a train wreck at right tackle and where Glenn is slow and plodding, relying on grabbing onto the defender and hoping that the ref is paying attention elsewhere. Henderson is massive, and does well in the run game but needed former Patriot Matthew Mulligan to help him out on the edge in pass protection.

All of this bodes well for the New England defensive ends, especially on the strong side where Jabaal Sheard has to be licking his chops at the prospect of locking horns with Henderson, but on the blind side, Chandler Jones must play under control and not do Glenn's job for him by being too aggressive with the outside technique and washing himself out of the play and allowing Taylor - a very fast and illusive runner - a running lane off tackle, where he killed the Colts by running for a full third of Buffalo's rushing yardage.

The Patriots should play a more conservative game plan of defense against the Bills than they did against the Steelers, trying to stop the run and forcing the game onto Taylor's shoulders. Unlike against the Steelers, the Patriots don't necessarily need to gain penetration on the interior, and must instead maintain gap integrity - allowing themselves to be prepared for the run with a full box and keeping Taylor in the pocket, where his lack of height becomes an issue, as one of his downfalls is his propensity for having balls batted down at the line of scrimmage.

The Patriots also had success in stopping the run against Pittsburgh by going with a three man line which allowed the athletic New England linebackers to better maintain their gap integrity by diagnosing the play on the fly while still playing light in the box - which also supports a tighter underneath zone for Buffalo's running backs and tight ends to contend with in the pattern.

This plan puts an great amount of pressure on the secondary, who should be running in the safety-heavy big nickle.

If last weeks was any indication of how balanced the Buffalo offense can be, having a third safety on the field should prove advantageous for New England, as half of Taylor's completions and more than half of his passing yardage went to McCoy and Clay on checkdowns. Linebacker Jamie Collins has had some luck against Clay in the past and safety Pat Chung is familiar with McCoy's moves as they were once teammates.

Harvin accounted for almost all of the rest of Buffalo's receiving yardage, most of which came on a pretty 51-yard bomb from Taylor, while Robert Woods, Sammy Watkins and Marquis Goodwin were all essentially locked down and shut out as Taylor too often felt pressure and opted for his second read, so against New England, Ryan will more than likely try to find a way to get those speedy guys the ball on shorties and allowing them to make defenders miss to gain yards after the catch.

This plays into the Patriots' hands, however, as slot corners Logan Ryan and Bradley Fletcher are best playing in that phone booth, keeping the receivers in front of them, and as it also allows for corners Malcolm Butler and Tarell Brown to play inside technique in either man or zone coverages, with safeties Devin McCourty and Duron Harmon lending a hand from the blue line.

The Buffalo Bills are who they are, and it's not tough to figure out. They retained 12 skill position players (9 legitimate pass catchers and just three running backs) and kept three quarterbacks on their roster, showing that while Ryan prefers a boot action quarterback on the field, he isn't quite comfortable with a relatively unknown quantity...

...leaving little depth on their already inadequate offensive line, making them as thin a unit as one will ever see. So if the Patriots can stop the run - be it with four linemen or just three - and give themselves an opportunity for their pass rush to pin their ears back and come after Taylor, Buffalo's offense likely will struggle...

...but if they can't and Buffalo runs the football as they are able, opening up second or third and short situations, the talent at their skill positions and the fact that New England will have to respect their running ability instead of throwing caution to the wind in the pass rush could spell doom for the Patriots defense.

It's entirely up to the Patriots. Stop the run and keep Taylor in the pocket or be kept off balance by the plethora of weapons that Ryan and Taylor have at their disposal.


Sunday, December 28, 2014

Covering Tight Ends, Pressuring the Passer Areas of Focus for Patriots' Defense

Browner was not fined for this hit on Green, perhaps lending credence to his physical and proper play

Getting flagged for a personal foul against San Diego may have been the best thing that's happen to Brandon Browner this season - and what's good for Browner is certainly good for the New England Patriots.

Called for helmet-to-helmet contact with Chargers' tight end Ladarius Green, Browner was incensed and animated in his protest that his devastating hit that left Green prone on the turf with a concussion was a clean hit.  The penalty negated a Devin McCourty interception return for a touchdown and initially brought heavy rain down on the physical corner for the vicious hit in the flat...

...but replays clearly demonstrated that Browner tackled Green with perfect form, never employing his helmet as a weapon and not driving Green to the ground.  The league, which normally looks at all personal fouls during their review of the week that was, refused to levy a fine against Browner, which is customary for helmet-to-helmet contact.

Why is this such a big deal?  Well, because of the league's emphasis on player safety and physical contact beyond the five yard buffer from the line of scrimmage, Browner has been the subject of the officiating crew's angst and New England's Bad Boy poster child.

It goes to figure that with Browner's physical style that he would be flagged more than usual - and, in fact, he leads the team in penalties by a substantial margin - but that one hit that the league refused to fine him for and the replays that show textbook form on the hit may just force the officials to think twice about automatically reaching into their back pocket for their flags.
Ayers is key to covering backs and rushing the quarterback

That should give Browner some level of autonomy and little more leniency from the officials in that they know that he wasn't purposely targeting Green's head and, indeed, provided the aforementioned textbook example of how to absolutely annihilate an opponent legally.

The benefit to the Patriots' defense is obvious, but it's not as if Browner was ever going to change his playing style - and he shouldn't, because despite the high number of penalties incurred by the 6' 4", 220 pound behemoth of a cornerback, his physical presence causes fear and loathing amongst the opposing pass catchers, and that is a wonderful advantage to have.

Browner has been an integral part of an influx of players that have elevated the New England defense to that of an imposing and physical top ten unit statistically, but still with the evil and wrong bend-but-don't-break philosophy that takes years off of Patriots' fans lives - the only socially redeeming factor being that it works.

Browner and company have not allowed a touchdown in the second half of a game since the Indianapolis Colts accomplished the feat seven weeks ago, and have allowed just 12 second half points in the five games played since - surrendering only 78 points total in that span, an average of 15 points per game..

...which is fortunate, since the Patriots' offense has been struggling out of the gate, leaving the defense in some tough spots in the process and facing halftime deficits in three of their last four games.

But while the offense does find it's stride in the second half with balanced play calling, the Patriots' defense has been carrying the team nevertheless - but that doesn't bring much comfort to the feel of the game, as the bend-but-don't-break deal causes much anxiety among the fan base.

There is hope for the future, however, and it starts with covering the opposition's tight end.

While shutdown corner Darrelle Revis practically eliminates one side of the field and Browner brings his physical presence with a safety over the top on the other, opposing teams are using this unit's aggressiveness against them by sending their wide receivers either deep or to the intermediate zone, clearing out traffic to target their tight ends and running backs...

...and while a combination of linebackers Akeem Ayers and Jonathan Casillas have neutralized the running backs for the most part, the opposing tight ends have been running wild and, in most cases, are extending drives.

Since the Indianapolis game, opposing tight ends have caught 38 balls from their respective quarterbacks for 467 yards and two touchdowns, as linebackers Jamie Collins and Dont'a Hightower have been unable to keep up with the athletic hybrids, and the safeties are having similar issues.

This is where Browner could chime in.

Last season in Seattle, Browner was benched late in the season after being burned repeatedly on the outside, but coach Pete Carroll still managed to find a niche for the Oregon State product as a double nickle, meaning that Browner would line up as a nickle slot corner and take the tight ends coming off the line, and the results amounted to a complete shutdown of the underneath passing game.

This season, the Patriots are having success with Browner on the outside, his length making up for lack of foot speed, but with a safety over the top, the feeling is that to stop the opposing safety-valve tight end play, New England could take the approach that Carroll took last season.

But Patriots' fans will have to wait to see if that materializes or not, as Browner has been deactivated for Sunday's "controlled scrimmage" with the Bills.

The game means nothing to either team, as Bufrfalo has been eliminated from playoff contention and the Patriots have wrapped up everything but a Super Bowl berth, which means that the teams will probably treat this game like a third preseason game - which in New England's case means working on a few areas of focus and then pulling starters.

But it goes without saying that defensive coordinator Matt Patricia and head ball coach Bill Belichick will be looking to solve the tight end dilemma, which in turn may help give the other area of concern - the team's inability to get enough pressure on the opposing quarterback - a shot in the arm.

Overall, the Patriots have plenty of talent on defense to carry the team to the Super Bowl, but solving the areas of need in an already stout defense may just ensure it.

Saturday, December 27, 2014

Fundamentals, Sustaining Drives Should Be Stressed for Imbalanced Patriots' Offense

"The second most fundamental principle in offensive football is to force the opposing defense to defend the entire field, which came into play with the advent of the forward pass.  Many believe that it takes a speedy wide receiver who can take the top off of the defense to force this issue, but the one true way that one can achieve this goal is through balance...

...another axiom of football that is misunderstood, in that balance in football doesn't necessarily mean equal parts running and passing - rather, it means to run the ball as many times as it takes for the defense to respect your commitment to the run."
Foxborough Free Press, December 21, 2014

The New England Patriots' offense is dangerously imbalanced.

On the surface, and using the the definition of balance in the above excerpt, it would appear that the Patriots have plenty of balance, averaging 26 rushing plays per game compared to 41 pass plays, a nearly 40/60 ratio which is optimum balance in terms of the NFL - but when one considers how those running plays are distributed throughout a game, the disparity becomes obvious and apparent.
It is quite likely that Patriots' fans will see this scene many time on Sunday

It's been no secret that the Patriots have stumbled on offense coming out of the gates in the past month, and not just at the beginning of the games, but also coming out of the locker room - normally a strength of this offense - going from idle to full speed at the start of each half takes at least two possessions to get anything going at all, and many times it seems to rely on being kick-started by a big play from the defense or special teams.

In the four-game span encompassing the past month, New England has scored 102 points - a drop of what amounts to a touchdown from the 33 points per game they had scored in the previous 11 contests.  But to make matters even worse, of the ten touchdowns produced by the team in that span, one came on a blocked field goal return and five other others were the direct result of a short field provided by the defense or special teams...

...and another one came on a 69 yard pass and catch play between quarterback Tom Brady and receiver Julian Edelman, meaning only three touchdowns have been produced by the offense on drives longer than 35 yards - not the kind of statistic that feeds into much positive mojo regarding the offense.

But there is a solution, and it's called running the football.
White should be on the active roster vs Buffalo

As noted several times in this blog, establishing the running game makes everything else related to the offense incrementally easier.  If the defense is forced to respect the running game, that affords the offensive linemen some flexibility in that the big defensive tackles' momentum-building initial step is tempered somewhat by the split second uncertainty as to rush the quarterback or maintain gap responsibility against the run...

...reinforced to a great degree by the quality of play action ability of the quarterback, who in this case is Tom Brady, who has made knees buckle in the front seven with the precision of his play fake.  This has a double-down type of benefit for the the offense as a whole, as the linemen can use the aforementioned split-second of uncertainty to anchor themselves for the pass rush, or to catch the defensive line on their heels and create leverage in the running game.

More than that, is the fact that with greater protection for Brady and the probability that the defense will have to stack the box to guard against the run, that will leave at least one of his outstanding pass catchers open down the field.  That even loops back to the running backs, who may find big holes with the trap draw if the defensive linemen can't or don't maintain their gap integrity.

In other words, establishing the running game is the single most important means for an offensive to impose their will on a defense, the result of which is the offense dictating the pace of the game and taking what they want by force rather than just taking what the defense gives to them.

Admittedly, the entire premise of the Erhardt-Perkins offense lies in its motto, "Pass to score, run to win", and taken literally, that is exactly what head ball coach Bill Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels appear to be honoring, as the Patriots have a tendency to be aggressive with the passing game to open the game and have had much success closing down games in the four minute offense.

But far too often, the running game is all but forgotten in the equation, and balance - not to mention points and time of possession - are sacrificed in the name of airing it out, particularly in the first half, resulting in halftime deficits in three of the four contests.

As mentioned, New England runs the ball an average of 26 times per game, but has averaged less than 10 carries per game in the first half of the last four.  Things even out a bit in the second half where the gap narrows to a ratio of 16 running plays to 19 passing attempts, which is where the 40/60 split occurs when all is said and done - but a far less stressful experience would occur with a little more attention paid to the ground game.

Consider that on all scoring drives by the Patriots' offense, the running game is heavily involved, with 46 carries for 242 yards, an average yards per carry of 5.2 yards per carry - and when the four-minute offense is employed to kill the clock, the results are nearly identical - but at all other times when haphazardly throwing in a couple of token running plays in the middle of an aerial assault in a feeble attempt to catch the opposing defense off guard, the results are not so productive.

All of these things added up suggest that more than anything else, the play calling must be sharper heading into the post-season, because when given the opportunity to achieve balance - particularly in the four minute offense - the players have proven that they are able to consistently execute and sustain drives.

That said, how do the Patriots coaching staff and players approach this coming Sunday's season finale against the Buffalo Bills in a manner which will promote the notion of balance and execution in light of the fact that this game should be viewed as a live-action scrimmage, and that many of the starters on offense are either going to be held out, or will be limited in their exposure to the violent Bills' defense?

Tough call, considering that running back Jonas Gray has already been ruled out with a bum ankle and that fellow power back Legarrette Blount may not see any action either, nursing a sore shoulder - and also that left guard Dan Connolly will probably sit due to a bad knee and swing tackle Cameron Fleming is slowed by a gimpy ankle, all of which somewhat throws dirt on the notion of getting staff and players on the same page...

...but in reality, this issue is more on the coaching staff than anything the players could accomplish in what amounts to a three-hour troubleshooting session.

The players have proven that they can execute just about any series of play calls handed to them, so it is up to the coaching staff to ensure that they put the players in the best possible position to succeed, which is to achieve balance.  In order to level the playing field for the offense against a dominant defense that they will assuredly come across in the playoffs, the Patriots must establish the running game in order to make the defense defend the entire field - and it doesn't have to be as productive as the 5.2 yards per carry.

Three yards and a cloud of dust is what the running game is predicated on, which in lay terms means to run the ball just enough to force the defense to respect the ground game, and a token draw play here and there isn't going to make the nut.

To force a defense to respect your running game, a team has to run right into the teeth of the defensive line - putting the onus on your offensive line to win the one-on-one battles and for the running backs to hit the hole hard, not dawdle and skirt the line hoping that a hole will open up.  In that respect, the play calling has everything to do with the success of the running game.

The Buffalo Bills have the fourth ranked defense in the NFL, but there is a gap between levels as their pass defense is ranked in the top three units in the league, but their rush defense is merely a middle-of-the-pack entity that surrenders ground yardage at an alarming pace, so one would surmise that the prudent thing for New England to do on offense is to shove the ball down the Bills' collective throats, but as recent history has shown us, the Patriots don't always apply popular theory.

Again, go back to the last four games for an example: Going into the loss at Green Bay and the wins at San Diego and against Miami (not necessarily in the win at the Jets), the stats told us that the Patriots should run the ball against three very suspect run defenses, yet McDaniels opened all three games by having quarterback Tom Brady flinging the football all over creation - in effect feeding right into the strengths of those units...

...then in the second half, they suddenly seemed to flip a switch, gain balance with the run and then blow the game open with a truly awesome display of offensive firepower.

As a result, the Patriots as a team have scored just 10 first quarter points in their last four games, which is bad but made even worse by the fact that seven of those points came from a blocked field goal return for a touchdown - that's three points scored by the offense in the first quarter of the last four games, and have scored a combined three points coming out of the locker room for the second half in three of those contests, the blowout of San Diego notwithstanding.

In contrast, the second and fourth quarters have been good to the Patriots, as their 38 and 27 respective points totals easily best the output from the opposing offense, as New England fields a stingy defense that rivals any in the league when it comes to giving up points.

But that comes later.  The point of the moment is that to come out of the game with Buffalo with any semblance of momentum that will be sustainable during the two weeks that the Patriots have between the Sunday and the divisional round of the playoffs, it's going to have to be by the offensive line winning their battles and opening holes for establishing their ground game...

...and they are going to have to do that with no true power backs toting the rock, considering the injury status of Blount and Gray, and also with Belichick wanting to limit injury potential to passing back Shane Vereen - which means that Patriots' fans could be getting a feature length view of their future at the position, as rookie runner James White will most likely get the call.

As will backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, either at halftime or shortly after - because, after all, it's not the execution of the players that needs to be worked on, it's the play calling by the staff to put those players in position to succeed.

This is part 2 of a 3 part series, with part 3 ruminating on the defense and what they should be working on during their game against Buffalo...