Patriots' Offense Should Own The Middle Of The Field Against Philly's Defense

On this week's edition of Inside the NFL, analysts Ray Lewis and Brandon Marshall took great pains to emphatically declare that the New England Patriots are led by the most cerebral coach to ever roam an NFL sideline.

"New England is the most prepared team, ever!" said an animated Marshall after breaking down Danny Amendola's first touchdown in New England's thrilling victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars, going on to give a surprisingly insightful soliloquy on the importance of film study, then throwing down, "Bring your PhD if you want to beat the Patriots."

Lewis holds the keys to Patriots' success

Heavy stuff and a little surreal given that Marshall had never been that complementary of anyone in his heyday - nor had Lewis, for that matter - and especially not toward Patriots' head ball coach and defacto grocery shopper Bill Belichick, who is someone that one either loves or loathes, as there is no in between, but always with a silent measure of respect and, sometimes, awe.

Known as a defensive genius upon his arrival in Foxborough at the turn of the century, Belichick has broadened his scope to master the Erhardt-Perkins offense in his own image, using a unique concept base that features 120 different route combinations for each personnel grouping - a seemingly over-complex system that is actually as efficient as any in the game for two reasons.

First, Belichick employs only skill position players who are both intelligent and versatile enough to line up anywhere in any formation, and effectively run any route from any position. What this does is give quarterback Tom Brady the ability to move his receivers around to take advantage of any mismatches identified in his pre-snap reads simply by barking out one key word.

The pre-snap process is designed to make it as difficult as possible for a defense to adjust to motion and positioning and is why one sees the Patriots' offense become stronger as the game goes on, because they run plays off of what they have gained from raw intelligence throughout the game, which is what makes them so deadly efficient towards the end of games.

It also explains the tendency for the opposition to complain that it seems like the Patriots know the signals and plays, because they put into practical application what they learn from play to play, not just game to game.

Most coaches script the first 15 - 20 offensive plays based on what they see in film study in order to build what they hope is a scoring drive on their first couple of possessions to gain a lead to work from - and Belichick is among them, but he already knows what is going to work against particular coverages, so he models his opening script as a way to expose defensive alignments in certain situations...

...jotting down the results of the plays with his mini golf pencil and scorecard to record defenses' collective reaction in order to bait them down the road -and the video with Marshall and Lewis is a perfect example of this phenomena, identifying routes that set up defenders based on the aforementioned intelligence in the form of film study and practical application.

How else does one explain how it is that the Patriots are rarely out of a game,and that no matter how invincible their opponent has looked for the first three quarters of a ball game, they end up looking ordinary-to-mediocre during that final frame? The same could be asked about why the Patriots' defense is more stout towards the end of games as well.

But do you really have to have a PhD to match up with New England?

The task is daunting indeed, but the Patriots have had their share of teams and concepts that they struggle against - and those are the teams that deal with New England's running backs in the passing game.

The strength of the Patriots is the versatility and skill of their running backs, and a full two-thirds of the offensive plays find the ball in the hands of Dion Lewis, James White or Rex Burkhead - and if you add in All Pro tight end Rob Gronkowski to the mix, that makes it three of every four plays goes to one of those players.

And if you can take these players away by concentrating on them in the pass pattern, you make things very difficult for Brady and company.

The Eagles feature one of the top defenses in the National Football League, tops against the run but middle of the pack against the pass, but advanced metrics tell us how the Patriots should be able to attack them.

According to the good folks at Football Outsiders, the Eagles are ranked in the top ten in the league in defending receivers outside the numbers - seventh overall in defending the top vertical targets and tops in the league in defending intermediate possession receivers. But the news is not all good for Philadelphia, as they are merely average against all other pass catchers...

...22nd in covering slot receivers, 10th in corralling backs in the pattern and a scary (for them) 17th in dealing with tight ends - and when one considers that they are a top seven defense in covering the flats and out patterns, but a woeful 19th in covering receivers inside the numbers, we see a distinct advantage for the Patriots.

Why? Well as many-a-broadcaster have opined, the Patriots run their offense inside the numbers, which sets up a few opportunities a game to go deep outside.

In that vein, the Patriots will likely run with their 11 personnel package (1 back, 1 tight end, 3 receivers) primarily to send speed merchant Brandin Cooks deep against Ronald Darby and possession man Chris Hogan to the intermediate zone against Jalen Mills - and it is entirely possible that the Eagles keep a single high safety to even the odds...

...which leaves eight men in the box to deal with Danny Amendola coming out of the slot against Patrick Robinson and one of three excellent and speedy linebackers to cut off the flat to New England's backs, most likely Nigel Bradham, who allowed on 0.68 yards per coverage snap this season, second best mark in the NFL.

To counter the Philadelphia pass coverage, the Patriots will naturally try to generate a running game, but that's been a tough row to plow this season, with the Eagles making contact with the opposing running back in the backfield at a pace of four in every ten rush attempts, but New England possesses a back with the highest rate of broken tackles and highest average yards after contact in Lewis - but what makes Lewis even more remarkable is that he records positive yardage on over four out of ten times that he is hit behind the line of scrimmage.

That makes the Eagles' number one rush defense a little less imposing and gives Patriots' offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels very good reason to stick with a running game, which will be essential against Philadelphia, because it will force their superb defensive line to hesitate just a fraction of a second on the play action fake - because what makes the task of producing a quick twitch offense needed to beat coverages, is to slow down Philadelphia's pass rush, which is the best the Patriots will have faced all season, generating pressure on an absurd 41% of opponents' passing plays.

So the offense all boils down to the offensive line. Lewis has the running covered and his backfield mates and receivers have what should be an upper hand against the Eagles' secondary, that is if the line gives Brady time to find them in the pattern.

The line is solid, and work well together, but it's going to take a combination of the running game, the resultant usage of the play action and Brady's quick release to put the pass rush back on their heels.

This is a win for the Patriots, as long as they play their game and don't allow the Eagles' defense to dictate to them. The uptempo offense is going to be key in slowing down the Philadelphia pass rush, who generate their pressure with just four linemen, rarely blitzing, which is something that Brady always takes advantage of.

So long as McDaniels sticks to the running game long enough to bring the play action into play - regardless of initial success or failure - the Patriots should enjoy the advantage.