Ludicrous? Delusional? Not so fast...
The month of September seems so long ago, it's volatility barely a shade in the deep freeze of late December, the uncertainty of the New England Patriots being able to defend their championship has given way to another division title, another first-round bye and another home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
In reality, the month of September and half of October was a protracted, six-week long panic attack, a waking nightmare that saw the Patriots come out firing with their world-class offense having their way with opposing defenses, while their own defense was giving up just as many yards and almost as many points - leaving them at 2-2 with a quarter of the season gone and little hope on the horizon for a defense that was giving up a whopping 32 points per game.
The defensive line was getting no push in the pass rush, the linebackers were free-lancing in an attempt to mitigate the line's woes and the secondary was moth-eaten blanket that belonged stashed in Matt Patricia's attic - but there were legitimate reasons why Patricia's defense was so bad, and it is a testament to the resiliency of the coaching staff that they enter the 2017 post-season as one of the hottest stoppers in football.
For a moment, let's pretend that the first month of the season was just a bad dream and didn't exist, and the schedule was condensed from 16 games down to twelve - the Patriots would have one of the top defenses in the National Football League.
Since the horrors of the first quarter of the season, the Patriots' defense has surrendered just 12.8 points per game - tops in the NFL during that time span - have given up a miserly 201 passing yards per game (5th in the NFL) and 114 yards per game on the ground (11th) - a far cry from the 32 points per game, 324 passing yards and 132 rushing yards that they yielded in the first four games, all of those numbers dead last in the league.
So pronounced was the improvement in such a short length of time that it was as if someone went into the Patriots defensive meeting room and flipped a switch between games four and five, but in reality the improvement was classically Belichickian, as head ball coach Bill Belichick and Patricia revitalized the defense simply by taking it back to it's default settings.
The turning point came on a Thursday night in early October when the Patriots were forced to go into Tampa to play a Buccaneers' team that many felt was on the cusp of greatness. Coming off of a demoralizing loss to the Carolina Panthers and in danger of falling below .500 with just three days to prepare for the Bucs, Belichick and Patricia were forced to fall back on preseason mode, when fundamentals were stressed above all else...
...which meant taking inventory of what they had in personnel and grooming the game plan to take advantage of what each player's skill set afforded them.
Every team that plays on a Thursday night is forced into their game with mere hours to prepare, and most every team looks to simply survive and don't put a hell of a lot of critique into their performance when their game plan has to be that vanilla, but the Patriots came into that game hungry to regress to basic fundamentals of the game, and it turned their season around.
Most notable was the transformation of the secondary in that game, whom Patricia put in press-man coverage to feed into the strengths of his cornerbacks and trust that his front seven, who to that point hadn't cause any sort of disruption, would be able to control the line of scrimmage by staying disciplined and remaining in their rush lanes.
Good thing, too, as injury has taken it's toll on the defense since and without a straight rudimentary core, the players that Belichick has signed to fill the void would have been useless until they learned the calls.
New England doesn't use exotic coverage looks, and the only disguising they do comes in the form of window dressing with the big nickel, which has become their "Base" alignment - which is also fortunate because Patricia has been able to mitigate the thin depth at linebacker somewhat because in that alignment, the strong safety drops into the box and becomes, essentially, a weak side linebacker.
And linebacker is where the issue in the defense has lied all season long, what with strong-sider Shea McClellin landing on the IR in preseason, with rookie hybrid Derek Rivers, promising weak-sider Harvey Langi and captain Dont'a Hightower following him to the shelf at various points, leaving a core of do-everything 'backer Kyle Van Noy and one-dimensional run-stuffers David Harris and Elandon Roberts.
Conspicuously missing was anyone who could set the edge or cover a back breaking into the flat, and Belichick eventually addressed that by inserting Marquis Flowers (acquired from Cincinnati for a seventh round pick) on the weak side and then poaching Buffalo's practice squad for Eric Lee, who has quickly become a cult figure on the strong side.
But the edge was still not secure and opposing offenses were running off tackle for huge chunks of yardage, so Belichick went out a got him an experienced edge setter, signing former Steeler James Harrison - and judging from his performance against the New York Jets in Sunday's season finale, it would seem that the second level is now well cared for.
It took the entire season, but the Patriots were able to evolve from a cast of individuals to a cohesive unit that now boasts some of the best numbers in the NFL. Usually, the team is what it is going to be by Thanksgiving, but because of the slow start and in-season retooling, that was extended out until Christmas.
It's still not perfect - in fact, a quick look at the depth chart provides the fact that there are eleven players (out of 25) on the defense that were not with the team last season, and only four of those guys had any significant professional playing time before landing in Foxborough...
...yet they sport a pass rush that finished the season tied for sixth in sacks with 42, ranked fourth in the NFL in red zone defense, and second in rushing touchdowns allowed despite being at or near the bottom of just about every other major statistical category - most of that damage done in the first month of the season, and was so pronounced that, residually, they had no chance of recovery.
That said, all that matters is how a team ends the season, and the Patriots' defense has ended the regular season as one of the top units in the league since that fateful first month - and with axiom "Defense wins championships" true, it looks like the Patriots are in good shape to defend their title.
Publisher's note: This is the first in a multi-part series focused on the evolution of the New England Patriots from training camp to the post-season, with a particular focus on the roster and how the current team got to where they are now. Part II will cover the transformation of the defensive line...
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