Belichick's Obsession With Safeties Paying Off In A Big Way

3 May, 2020

Lewiston, Maine

Time was, the safety position on the football field was the catch-all for players who were good athletes, but didn't have possess a skill set that translated to anything else.

When I first started playing football as a kid, I was the smallest player on the field but also the fastest. The coaches tried me at many different positions, but eventually "stuck" me at safety. I felt like the forgotten man, all alone on the back end, joining in on the play only when a kid on the opposing offense got past the first and second levels...

Rookie box safety Kyle Dugger

...which, as time wore on and I graduated from Pop Warner to middle school and then to high school ball, became more and more often. Since I was so small, I got trampled if I tried to take on receivers and running backs who broke into the open field, so to stay on the field and off the bench, I had to actually learn the nuances of the position.

That meant that I had to learn the route tree, study angles and work with a track coach to create an explosive first step. I played basketball and developed timing and stronger legs in order to meet the ball in the air - and I started playing hockey, which developed eye-hand coordination and taught me how to absorb big hits - and dish them out - without getting hurt.

In other words, I evolved and became a solid last line of defense as a single high safety who made opposing quarterbacks think twice about dropping bucket throws to deep receivers - not because I arrived at the apex with any kind of thunder, but because I could usually get a hand on the ball and break up the play and, on occasion, intercept the ball.

The point being, the safety positions have evolved into a specialty on every level of football, and have become far more than the last line of defense, no longer the dumping ground for aging cornerbacks or players whose skill set leaves them positionless - and in the New England Patriots' scheme, the safeties that they employ form a three-headed monster that makes their base defense different from every other in the National Football League.

They didn't invent it - the "Big Nickel" defense has been around for five decades - but they run it between sixty-and-seventy percent of the time, and it has been primarily responsible for a defense that has finished ranked in the top ten in nine of the ten years since head coach and general manager Bill Belichick started collecting safeties back in 2009, taking strong safety Patrick Chung with their first overall pick...

...picking up then-cornerback Devin McCourty with his first overall pick in the 2010 draft - the exact same draft that proved to be the talisman that necessitated the need for a three-safety alignment, Belichick selecting tight ends Rob Gronkowski in the second round and Aaron Hernandez two rounds later, then unleashing them on a league that had undervalued the tight end position, for the most part, since the late 70's.

Knowing that the NFL was a copy-cat entity and seeing that the Gronkowski-Hernandez tandem was tantalizingly successful, Belichick began putting together a group of safeties to combat the eventuality that other teams were going to try to copy what he had. He already had Chung and McCourty but needed a third wheel in order to run the Big Nickel alignment, so he used a 2015 third-round pick on a little-known safety out of Rutgers named Duron Harmon.

Harmon was speedy, big and tough, but had a rap on him coming out of college that he was one dimensional and would only fit in a cover-one scheme - a man/zone scheme that employed a single-high safety - as he was at his best seeing the play unfold in front of him and had sideline-to-sideline range and angle recognition to be that last line of defense.

Harmon blossomed into the best centerfielder in the league and earned a reputation as a closer, knocking away would-be scores and coming down with interceptions at the most critical of moments, usually late in games with the outcome still in doubt.

So while the alignment isn't original, it is old school, which is exactly the direction Belichick is taking his team, creating the roster in his image.

The issue he's faced with is that while he has a defensive secondary that is considered one of the best in the league, Belichick traded away Harmon to the Detroit Lions in a salary dump, but did sign former San Diego All Pro safety Adrian Phillips who, if he's fully recovered from a broken arm suffered in week two of last season, is just as rangy and explosive as Harmon.

To further strengthen the secondary, he also selected the best box safety in the class, maybe the best in the last two or three years, when he selected Kyle Dugger, a 6' 1", 220 pound thumper who was born to play the position, and is without a doubt Patrick Chung's eventual replacement - but for now, the presence of Dugger gives Belichick an intriguing set of options moving forward.

They could still run a three-safety package, as Dugger has the size and speed to body up on tight ends and to neutralize running backs wheeling out into the pattern in man coverage, and the violent intent and explosiveness to lay out receivers crossing over the middle in zone. Both McCourty and Phillips can handle the back end well enough, giving the Patriots the horses to continue running the Big Nickel.

Which is most probably the reason that he valued Dugger so much, because Chung and his damaged body may not make it through the entire 2020 season. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I can't recall a game last season that Chung didn't have to have the training staff trot onto the field to render acute medical assistance. Terrence Brooks did a serviceable job backing him up, but with so much quality in the safety corps, he may have a tough time cracking this roster.

That's not a bad problem to have, and considering the talent at cornerback, including AFC Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore and the interchangeable "J" quadruplets, Jason McCourty, Jonathan Jones, JC Jackson and JoeJuan Williams across from him, the potential exists for the Patriots to possess the best secondary in the league...

...which immeasurably helps a front six that returns stalwarts at linebacker and on the defensive line, plus some intriguing newbies from Belichick's solid draft and deft free agency pick ups that will aid in the pass rush and help set a hard edge in the run game.

The mix of talented veterans and exciting young fire pissers makes up the best group of safeties that Belichick has ever fielded, period, his obsession with collecting off-market safeties finally paying off in a big, big way.

Redshirt "Sophomore" Harris The Key To Productive Running Game

30 May, 2020

There are probably many reasons why Bill Belichick is excited about this years incarnation of the New England Patriots' offense, but the most important one is that he finally gets to build the unit the way he always wanted to.

The way the draft went down suggests that he had everything he wanted to field a product that is based more on power and less on passing, needing only a tight end or two to put the whole thing together - and don't be surprised if the Patriots are formidable on offense despite not having Tom Brady under center.

Damien Harris

Because it's not a matter of replacing the greatest quarterback of all time, it was a matter of getting Brady out of his way so that he could build an offense in his own gruff image, using recent drafts to prepare for a philosophical shift that is going to mirror the early days of Belichick's tenure in New England, when the Patriots won three Super Bowl titles in four seasons with brute force.

Back in that day, a young Brady worked behind an offensive line built to run the football, handing off to the likes of Antowain Smith and Corey Dillon and riding their success to develop one of the best play action passing games in the league - but this is not suggest that second year quarterback Jarrett Stidham is going to enjoy the same success as Brady, nor that the Patriots as a whole are going to hammer their way to another Lombardi Trophy...

...but what it does suggest is that if Belichick made it work before, he believes that he can make that philosophy work again. It's not very scientific, but it is plausible, and he has the horses to make it a reality.

Starting with undrafted free agent center David Andrews and fourth-round guard Shaq Mason in 2015, Belichick has populated his offensive line with players coming from college programs where they developed into elite run blockers, adding left guard Joe Thuney the following year and left tackle Isaiah Wynn two seasons after that.

The offense hit a few snags along the way, most notably when All-World tight end Rob Gronkowski retired before last season, followed by injuries to Andrews, Wynn and every fullback on their roster which, when combined with running back Sony Michel's sophomoric slump and Brady's distrust of any receiver not named Julian Edelman, doomed the Patriots to their worst post-season showing in over a decade.

But as bad as it was, every negative circumstance that came out of the Patriots' struggles last season provided a clear view of what Belichick needed to do going forward as he starts anew with Stidham under center and, truthfully, it isn't that much.

First, Belichick upgraded the tight end position through the draft, taking two seam-busting, rough-and-tumble entities in UCLA's Devin Asiasi and Wake Forest's Dalton Keene, both willing blockers, with Asiasi more of an inline blocker with good speed in space and up the seam while Keene is more of an "H-back" who does his best work in pass protection and as a lead blocker out of the backfield, and as a safety valve on underneath routes in the passing game.

Neither is the second coming of Gronkowski, and they don't need to be, but both offer the versatility and are perfect fits to succeed in Belichick's philosophical shift.

Secondly, and although the jury will be out until they step on the practice field - whenever that will be - the starters along the offensive line should return healthy, and Belichick chose to back them up with new blood in the draft, taking three developmental types on the third day of the draft. They will compete with last season's less-than-thrilling pool of backups, hopefully one or two displacing the veterans.

Third, and most disquieting, was Michel's aforementioned and so-called "sophomore slump" which, in reality, was nothing more that proving that Michel isn't capable of getting anything more than what is blocked for him, looking more and more timid as time wore on and being benched in a handful of games in favor of tougher runners in Rex Burkhead and James White.

But there is an answer waiting in the wings in redshirt "Sophomore" Damien Harris, whom Belichick used a third-round pick on in last season's epic draft haul, number 87 overall. Belichick kept Harris on the active roster just as he did with James White in his 2014 rookie season, which, if history holds true, means that he has a specific plan for the hard-running, shoulder-dipping load out of Alabama...

...where he shared the backfield with now-Las Vegas Raiders' feature back Josh Jacobs, both enjoying equal success on the Crimson Tide's National Championship team, but with Harris becoming one of only eight running backs in Alabama's long history to rush for more than 3,000 yards in his career.

Harris ran over folks in the 2019 preseason, and showed soft hands in the pattern out of the backfield, gaining yards after initial contact by initiating said contact and exploding through the would-be tackler - something that would have been advantageous last season as proven by both White and, in particular, Burkhead.

But Burkhead's style and apparent fragility is a poor mix, as he has spent half of his Patriots' tenure on the trainer's table, and White is too important to the passing game as a third-down back to risk injury as an every down pounder. What the Patriots needed - and need - is Harris.

As far as Michel is concerned, he is still servicable as a change of pace back in a two-back set, though his running style is more angular than sudden, meaning that he is better at attacking the line through straight ahead creases as opposed to Harris, who possesses excellent vision and a wicked jump cut that comes in handy when cutting back against the grain.

In all, the Patriots should employ four backs, with Harris, Michel and White as roster locks, with Burkhead, Brandon Bolden and whatever free agents Belichick chooses to bring in battling for the last spot - while the fullback position should fall to second year undrafdted free agent Jakob Johnson, with rookie Dalton Keene seeing time as a lead blocker as well.

So on paper, the Patriots' running back depth chart looks solid, and with a productive running game being a young quarterback's best friend, that depth chart could be the most important position on the field.

Belichick Nails First Pick, Middle Rounds; Draft Offers Several Players Ready To Contribute

Previously published on our sister blog, Mainely Patriots

26 April, 2020

Bill Belichick has a different process for evaluating players in the draft than most, and it's worked out pretty well so far.

That's why it's close to impossible to nail down who he's going to select in the draft - that is unless you consider that Belichick doesn't select players based solely on collegiate performance, he selects them based on the bag full of squirrels running around in his brain that conjures ways of utilizing them to open up his playbook.

Sure he recognizes that he has holes to fill in the lineup and that is part of the equation, which also factors in things like potential attrition and measurables, but the deciding factor when selecting a player is left to Belchick's imagination.

The New England Patriots' 2020 draft haul may be the most diverse and incongruent of his Patriots' career, declining to select the big name that excites fans and opting for players that makes his imagination run wild with possibilities - and once the people who make their living generating mock drafts get that through their heads, they can start understanding that Belichick actually targets players throughout the process and sticks to his board...

...selecting players in order from top to bottom, no matter what round the draft experts project those players to be drafted, and things like level of competition in college means little in his grand scheme.

I'm starting to get it (I got two out of the ten picks correct) but I will never fully understand - that said, one can be sure that once Belichick makes his selections, the method behind his madness starts to make sense, and optimism reigns.

Going into this week's draft, the experts prioritized the outside linebacker, quarterback and tight end positions as needs for the Patriots, and to a certain extent, they were right - but the players that they projected as good fits for Belichick's roster were bypassed by the Dark Master in favor of the little known players in which he imagines can help open up his playbook, incorporating their skill sets into the maw rather than plugging them into a stringent template.

Take the way he approached the tight end position, for example. In my mock, I had him drafting two tight ends, Dayton's Adam Trautman in the third round due to his label as a combination tight end, and LSU's Thaddeus Moss for his traditional "H-back" skill set - and he did select two tight ends, trading up twice in the third round to take players that weren't even on most people's radars.

UCLA's Devin Asiasi is a potential seam buster with good speed and excellent vision and movement in space, while also being a handy red zone threat on fades and has a knack for finding the dead spots in zone coverages, while Virgina Tech's Dalton Keene will remind many of the skill set possessed by former-Patriots' tight end Aaron Hernandez, who was used in the H-back role by Belichick, lining up all over the formation.

Many will wonder why Belichick traded up into the second round to select Michigan outside linebacker Josh Uche when there were so many bigger names left on the draft board, but the undersized edge rusher is a speed demon that can blow by tackles and is an accomplished blitzer who can also hold his own in coverage, carrying his routes further downfield than many in the same position.

Another reason why Belichick called Uche's name is that he played opposite 2019 draft pick Chase Winovich, who together terrorized opposing passers. That chemistry should translate to the field this fall as Winovich is ready for a breakout season as a starting defensive end after limited snaps in his rookie season.

The other linebacker that Belichick selected, Alabama's Anfernee Jennings, isn't much in the pass rush or in coverage- though he notched eight sacks and defended five passes last season - but is pure hell in the running game, setting the edge by tossing tight ends and tackles aside and forcing plays back to the inside, where bigger bodies await.

A tackling machine, Jennings logged 83 tackles in thirteen games in his senior season with the 'Tide, 13 of those coming behind the line of scrimmage.

Jennings' and Uche's skill sets are particularly important for Belichick's defense, as they address issues that the defense has had for years - stopping the running game on the edges and coverage on running backs curling out into the pass pattern.

To further demonstrate his resolve to eliminate these negative impacts, as well as address the demise of Patrick Chung's skill set, Belichick used his second round draft pick marvelously, snagging the best box safety in the draft, Lenoir-Rhyne's Kyle Dugger.

Built like a freight train and striking like one as well, Dugger has the potential to be the centerpiece for Belichick's aggressive Cover-Zero look. Blessed with the rare combination of elite size, speed and explosiveness, Dugger compares more-than-favorably to former NFLer Adrian Wilson, who played at an All-Pro level for much of his career.

Unlike Chung, Dugger is the type of player that opposing offensive coordinators must game plan for and account for on every play, and he will make backs and tight ends think twice about extending for balls, especially over the middle - and he is an absolute load in run defense.

If Belichick got nothing else of value in the draft, Dugger makes his defensive draft grade out as a solid "A", but by adding Uche's elite pass rushing skills and coverage ability in the flat, combined with Jennings' edge-setting prowess, he addressed all of the needs of the defense with superior athletes who should contribute right away.

That is, all but one need, as Belichick passed on pure nose tackles in the draft, instead opting for quick but limited inside linebacker Cassh Maluia out of Wyoming, who is a projectile but needs some professional coaching to become anything more than a taxi squad player.

The same holds true on the other side of the ball, where Belichick tapped three developmental offensive linemen, though another Wolverine, guard Mike Onwenu, could bring his massive 350 pound frame into play as a road-grading power run blocker. Wake Forest guard Justin Herron possesses the footwork to work in a zone run blocking scheme and to provide solid interior pass protection, though he could stand to bulk up a bit.

Perhaps the most intriguing of the three linemen is Memphis center Dustin Woodward, a lightweight relative to the position at 6' 2" and only 285 pounds who is not going to beat out incumbent center David Andrews, but has a high upside as a backup center and guard and is valuable insurance in the event Andrews can not fully resume his role due to missing all of last season with blood clot issues.

But the most Belichickian moment of the draft came when he used his fifth round selection on a linebacker-sized kicker who prides himself on his consistency in foul-weather, game-winning situations. Marshall's Justin Rohrwesser stands 6' 3" and 230 pounds, and when he puts all of it behind his kicks, the ball explodes off his foot, straight and true...

...which is what you want from a place kicker, after all. But what really sets Rohrwesser apart from his peers coming out in the 2020 draft class is the control he shows of the ball on kickoffs, routinely forcing the kick returner to have to play the ball, with enough hang time to allow his coverage teams to arrive under the ball, an important field possession weapon.

All in all, and though it means little coming from me, Belichick deserves a solid "A" in the draft class. Even if his developmental guys don't pan out, he got plenty of value for his roster in rounds two through five, drafting six players who should be major assets to the team immediately.

2020 NFL Draft: Won Some, Lost Some in Patriots' Projections On First Two Days

Previously published on our sister blog, Mainely Patriots

25 April, 2020

Far be it for me to blow my own horn. Aw, who am I kidding?

While Bill Belichick traded up and down and all around in the first three rounds of the 2020 NFL draft, I did manage to nail down two of the players he was likely to select, including top pick in box safety Kyle Dugger - the third time in four seasons that I've gotten their first pick correct - and edge-setting linebacker Anfernee Jennings.

And while I did not even mention the two tight ends they selected in the third round, I did predict that the Patriots would use multiple picks on tight ends.

That said, let's take a look at what they should be looking for on the last day of the draft,  starting with my original projections:

Projected Patriots Draft picks 2020:

First Round: 

Traded away #23;

Second Round: 

#37 Kyle Dugger, S, Lenoir-Rhyne - (pick from trading down from the first round)

Patrick Chung is growing old and fragile. In fact, I can't recall a game last season when he didn't have the training staff run onto the field to escort him off in pain - so the time to find a replacement is upon Belichick, and the best box safety in the draft is Dugger. Bigger, faster and stronger than Chung, he fills well in the running game and arrives with dark intent, and has the length and bulk to match up well with tight ends in the pattern, along with the speed to deal with running backs curling into the flat.

Third Round:

#71 - Adam Trautman, TE, Dayton - A tremendous value if he falls to the third round, as projected. Had he more experience at the position - he played quarterback and was a basketball star upon arrival at Dayton - he has all the tools to be a top-flight professional tight end. He is a willing in-line blocker and lined up all over the formation in the passing game, running routes not typically expected of a tight end. He possesses solid hands and a lot toughness and quickness, and tracks the ball well up the seam. Excellent prospect for a team that isn't tied to tradition.

#87 - Denzel Mims, WR, 6' 3", 205 - Baylor - One of the most versatile recievers in this draft, Mims did everything he was asked to do in college at a very high level. The issue with him coming into the NFL is that the routes he was asked to run in college represents only a small percentage of the route tree that professional receivers are tasked with. The upside is his deep speed, length and catch radius, which probably relegates him to a red zone target and occasional field-stretcher.

#98 - Lucas Niang, RT, Texas Christian University - Powerful hands and violent intent are the hallmarks of Niang, who comes from the same program that produced incumbent right tackle Marcus Cannon a decade ago. Like Cannon, his forte is run blocking, but he comes to the NFL with a more defined pass blocking package. His handwork is elite in both phases, but speed-to-power pass rushers will occasionally gain the edge of him in pass protection, as he relies more on strength and length to swallow up one-dimensional rushers. In the running game, he is a pancake maker with the ability to climb the ladder and erase linebackers. A tremendous value if he's still available in the third round, where the Patriots currently have three selections in their pocket.

#100 -  Anferneee Jennings, OLB, Alabama - A true edge-setter with impressive upper body power to knock tight ends and tackles back and hold the edge, funneling the play inside where bigger bodies await to make the play. While instinctive and explosive off the snap, his closing speed chasing quarterbacks isn't as focused as a pass rusher, but college coaches used him as a disruptor who cuts off escape routes for mobile passers.

Fourth Round:

#125 - Davon Hamilton, NT, 6' 4", 327 - Ohio State - A ture nose tackle in every sense of the word with tremendous lower body strength and quick, violent hands that routinely moved college centers off their mark, blowing up plays in the backfield, sometimes before they even got started. A gap eater who willingly takes on double teams to open up plays for his teammates.

#139  Jordyn Brooks, ILB, Texas Tech - (pick from trading Rob Gronkowski's rights to Tampa Bay) - A true four-down linebacker, the only knock on Brooks is that the defensive line has to keep him clean so that he doesn't get lost in traffic, so he would have to be mentored by experienced linebackers like Hightower in the nuances of playing inside - but once he cleans that up, he has the potential of being a violent interior linebacker who possesses coverage skills to handle backs and tight ends crossing the middle.

# Trevis Gipson, DE, 6' 4", 260 - Tulsa (pick from trading down from the first round) - Possesses a unique skill set that fits perfectly with Belichick's 3-4 alignment. He loves mixing things up with tackles and tight ends and rarely yields ground to them in the running game, setting a mean edge. Not an edge-bender in the pass rush, but is sheer terror when shading tackles to the inside as a five-technique end.

Fifth round: 

# Thaddeus Moss, TE, LSU (pick from trading up from sixth and seventh rounds #195, #235) - Unlike his Hall-of-Fame father, Randy's kid is an elite run blocker who also has the requisite speed and hands to handle safety valve duties in the passing game. He's built like a linebacker and has "H-Back" written all over him.

Sixth round:

#212 - James Proche, WR, SMU - Compared favorably to former-Patriots Danny Amendola, he excels from the slot and is twitchy off the line, with the ability to break in any direction and gain separation. Not big nor impressively fast, his hands and route running make him a perfect player to be mentored by Julian Edelman

#213 - Van Jefferson, WR,  Florida (pick from trading up from sixth and seventh rounds (#204, #241) - a precise route runner with excellent NFL blood lines who is possesses perhaps the most diverse skill set in the draft at the position. Gains separation from anywhere along the line. He's not a speedster like his father was, but his experience and excellence in route running is a young quarterback's best friend.

As mentioned, the Patriots muddled the third-round board by trading up and down during the first two days of the draft - which destroyed my projections for the third day - and now hold six selections on the last day, including four in the sixth round...

...though I still believe that they will draft at least one receiver and a probably a quarterback to give Jarrett Stidham some competition in camp, as well as a right tackle, perhaps a center, and most likely a kicker, as they have released long-time great Stephen Gostkowski.

As you can see from my mock draft above, most of the players I had pegged as Patriots are already gone, with the exception of Gipson, Moss and Proche. I still like all three, though Moss is likely a no-go since Belichick has already drafted two tight ends.

The only real disappointment I have with any of my projections on this last day of the draft is that Jefferson is not available.

2020 NFL Draft: Belichick Does The Smart Thing, Trades Out Of First Round

Previously published on our sister blog, Mainely Patriots

April 24, 2020

As expected, Bill Belichick used his first round draft pick as a portal to his wheelhouse - and in doing so, he's put his New England Patriots in position to have an epic draft.

Don't be surprised to see Belichick trade down even further into the second round in order to pick up additional mid-round draft picks - but as it stands right now, the Patriots have a second rounder (picked up from the Chargers), four third rounders and three fourth rounders.

That are seven potential selections between pick 37 and 139, which gives Belichick a massive amount of ammunition to be a player all over the draft board, leverage to move up and down the board to grab the players he truly wants.

Naturally, fans and media lost their collective minds, but the method behind Belichick's madness is sound.

Never mind his track record of "Hit or miss" when trading out of the first round, mostly because the draft is crap-shoot to begin with, and he has a history of reaching for players that he could have had in the later rounds.

As bad as some of his second-day picks have been, when he does hit on them, the results are spectacular (See Deion Branch, Jamie Collins, Jimmy Garoppolo, Rob Gronkoswski, Patrick Chung), and each time, he addressed an area badly in need of an upgrade (Except for Garoppolo, because, well...Tom Brady). Where he gets in trouble is when he does that take-the-best-player-available thing.

Luckily (or sadly, depending on your point of view), the Patriots have several areas of need in this draft.

So, the only question is, which need do they address first?

In my mock draft, I had the Patriots trading out of the first round and using that pick on box safety Kyle Dugger out of Lenoir-Rhyne who, in my opinion, is the best box safety in the draft, but came in with a late second-early third round grade - and I think I'm going to stick with that.

In previous mocks, I had Belichick selecting Washington Quarterback Jacob Eason, and while he is still available, There really isn't that much difference between him and would-be incumbent Jarrett Stidham - both good and bad - so I'm thinking that if they do bring in a quarterback at some point, it will be in the third round with a guy like Georgia's Jake Fromm or Oklahoma's Jalen Hurts, or wait until the third day and pick up Florida International's James Morgan as a developmental project.

They are in need of a big-time box safety, where incumbent Patrick Chung is displaying symptoms of breaking down sooner than later. Dugger is big (6' 1", 215), fast, solid in underneath coverages and arrives at the ball carrier with bad intentions.

Maybe his best attribute is the coverage he can lay on a running back wheeling out into the pattern, which has been an Achilles heel for the Patriots' defense for many years - but don't be surprised if Belichick tries to replace departed Big Nickel safety Duron Harmon with surprisingly-still-available Alabama free safety Xavier Mckinney, who has the sideline-to-sideline ability that made Harmon such an important part of the secondary.

California's Ashtyn Davis is another prospect at Free Safety who could replace Harmon. It takes a specialized talent to play the Big Nickel, single-high safety position, and both McKinney and Davis have the measurables and natural talent to do that at a high level.

One name that could make the above all void is Notre Dame's Cole Kmet, the best tight end prospect in the draft. Another could be TCU's athletic and mean right tackle Lucas Niang.

Below, please find my updated Mock draft for the New England Patriots, which is a running tabulation and projects that Belichick will trade down into the second round and pick up a fourth-rounder in the process, then trade up from the sixth and seventh rounds to acquire a fifth round pick - which as we all know, will become a jumbled mess as he navigates the big board:

Projected Patriots Draft picks 2020:

First Round: 

Traded away #23;

Second Round: 

#37 Kyle Dugger, S, Lenoir-Rhyne - (pick from trading down from the first round)

Patrick Chung is growing old and fragile. In fact, I can't recall a game last season when he didn't have the training staff run onto the field to escort him off in pain - so the time to find a replacement is upon Belichick, and the best box safety in the draft is Dugger. Bigger, faster and stronger than Chung, he fills well in the running game and arrives with dark intent, and has the length and bulk to match up well with tight ends in the pattern, along with the speed to deal with running backs curling into the flat.

Third Round:

#71 - Adam Trautman, TE, Dayton - A tremendous value if he falls to the third round, as projected. Had he more experience at the position - he played quarterback and was a basketball star upon arrival at Dayton - he has all the tools to be a top-flight professional tight end. He is a willing in-line blocker and lined up all over the formation in the passing game, running routes not typically expected of a tight end. He possesses solid hands and a lot toughness and quickness, and tracks the ball well up the seam. Excellent prospect for a team that isn't tied to tradition.

#87 - Denzel Mims, WR, 6' 3", 205 - Baylor - One of the most versatile receivers in this draft, Mims did everything he was asked to do in college at a very high level. The issue with him coming into the NFL is that the routes he was asked to run in college represents only a small percentage of the route tree that professional receivers are tasked with. The upside is his deep speed, length and catch radius, which probably relegates him to a red zone target and occasional field-stretcher.

#98 - Lucas Niang, RT, Texas Christian University - Powerful hands and violent intent are the hallmarks of Niang, who comes from the same program that produced incumbent right tackle Marcus Cannon a decade ago. Like Cannon, his forte is run blocking, but he comes to the NFL with a more defined pass blocking package. His handwork is elite in both phases, but speed-to-power pass rushers will occasionally gain the edge of him in pass protection, as he relies more on strength and length to swallow up one-dimensional rushers. In the running game, he is a pancake maker with the ability to climb the ladder and erase linebackers. A tremendous value if he's still available in the third round, where the Patriots currently have three selections in their pocket.

#100 -  Anferneee Jennings, OLB, Alabama - A true edge-setter with impressive upper body power to knock tight ends and tackles back and hold the edge, funneling the play inside where bigger bodies await to make the play. While instinctive and explosive off the snap, his closing speed chasing quarterbacks isn't as focused as a pass rusher, but college coaches used him as a disruptor who cuts off escape routes for mobile passers.

Fourth Round:

#125 - Davon Hamilton, NT, 6' 4", 327 - Ohio State - A ture nose tackle in every sense of the word with tremendous lower body strength and quick, violent hands that routinely moved college centers off their mark, blowing up plays in the backfield, sometimes before they even got started. A gap eater who willingly takes on double teams to open up plays for his teammates.

#139  Jordyn Brooks, ILB, Texas Tech - (pick from trading Rob Gronkowski's rights to Tampa Bay) - A true four-down linebacker, the only knock on Brooks is that the defensive line has to keep him clean so that he doesn't get lost in traffic, so he would have to be mentored by experienced linebackers like Hightower in the nuances of playing inside - but once he cleans that up, he has the potential of being a violent interior linebacker who possesses coverage skills to handle backs and tight ends crossing the middle.

# Trevis Gipson, DE, 6' 4", 260 - Tulsa (pick from trading down from the first round) - Possesses a unique skill set that fits perfectly with Belichick's 3-4 alignment. He loves mixing things up with tackles and tight ends and rarely yields ground to them in the running game, setting a mean edge. Not an edge-bender in the pass rush, but is sheer terror when shading tackles to the inside as a five-technique end.

Fifth round: 

# Thaddeus Moss, TE, LSU (pick from trading up from sixth and seventh rounds #195, #235) - Unlike his Hall-of-Fame father, Randy's kid is an elite run blocker who also has the requisite speed and hands to handle safety valve duties in the passing game. He's built like a linebacker and has "H-Back" written all over him.

Sixth round:

#212 - James Proche, WR, SMU - Compared favorably to former-Patriots Danny Amendola, he excels from the slot and is twitchy off the line, with the ability to break in any direction and gain separation. Not big nor impressively fast, his hands and route running make him a perfect player to be mentored by Julian Edelman.

#213 - Van Jefferson, WR,  Florida (pick from trading up from sixth and seventh rounds (#204, #241) - a precise route runner with excellent NFL blood lines who is possesses perhaps the most diverse skill set in the draft at the position. Gains separation from anywhere along the line. He's not a speedster like his father was, but his experience and excellence in route running is a young quarterback's best friend.